ODIN Sverige Fondskommentar september 2015
Fondets portefølje
ODIN Sverige - september 2015 Avkastning siste måned og hittil i år Fondet leverte siste måned en avkastning på -0,2 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning var -1,8 prosent. Hittil i år er fondets avkastning 16,6 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning er 7,7 prosent hittil i år. Kjøp og salg siste måned og hittil i år Siste måned har vi solgt litt aksjer i Intrum Justitia, Indutrade og Beijer REF og kjøpt flere aksjer i Autoliv og H&M. Hittil i år er de største endringene kjøp av Fenix Outdoor, Lifco og Autoliv, samt salg av Elekta, Nordea og H&M. Bidragsytere siste måned og hittil i år De beste bidragsyterne siste måned var Autoliv, Sweco og Latour B. De svakeste bidragsytere siste måned var ABB, Systemair og Lagercrantz. Hittil i år er de beste bidragsyterne Lifco, Lagercrantz og Indutrade. De svakeste bidragsyterne hittil i år er Fenix Outdoor, MTG og ABB.
ODIN Sverige - september 2015 Prising av fondet Fondet prises til 15,8 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Fondet gir en forventet direkteavkastning på 3,3 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises fondet til 3,1 ganger. Selskapene i fondet har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 17,0 prosent. Prising av det svenske aksjemarkedet - OMXSB Cap GI Markedet prises til 14,7 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Markedet gir en direkteavkastning på 4,3 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises markedet til 2,1 ganger. Selskapene i OMXSB Cap GI har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 13,7 prosent. Makroøkonomi OECDs ledende indikatorer viser nå en endringstakt på trend for økonomiene i området de seneste månedene.
Nøkkeltall og nyheter fra porteføljen - presentert på engelsk
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (NOK) ODIN Sverige Index Historical Return % (NOK)* Portfolio Last Month -0,25 YTD 16,63 1 Y 34,57 3 Y 27,41 5 Y 16,85 10 Y 12,63 Since inception 17,79 Benchmark -1,84 7,74 23,12 21,23 13,11 10,93 12,43 Exess Return 1,59 8,90 11,45 6,18 3,74 1,70 5,36 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Sector allocation
Sector contribution, year to date
Current holdings
Share price performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.
Contribution, year to date
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Portfolio Index Active share 0,81 Sharpe ratio 1) 2,32 Standard Deviation 2) 11,16 1,87 10,58 Portfolio Alpha 7,35 Beta 0,87 Tracking error 6,54 Information ratio 0,94 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
Up or down In or out ODIN Sverige Significant Portfolio changes year to date Number of changes in portfolio year to date 1 Buy Sell Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 + - + - + - + - Elekta Fenix Outdoor Lifco Elekta Beijer Alma Indutrade Autoliv H&M Nolato Sweco Nordea Intrum Justitia Indutrade Beijer REF
Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Sweco AB Class B 6,9% Sweden Construction & Engineering 16,9 14,9 3,2 3,5 4,2 25,1 Beijer Alma AB Class B 6,9% Sweden Machinery 16,1 14,6 4,8 5,2 3,0 18,7 Addtech AB Class B 6,2% Sweden Trading Companies & Distributors 18,9 16,7 2,8 3,2 5,0 26,3 Autoliv Inc Shs Swedish DR 5,6% Sweden Auto Components 17,8 15,6 2,0 2,3 2,8 15,9 Lifco AB Class B 5,0% Sweden Health Care Providers & Services 22,0 20,2 1,9 2,1 4,4 19,9 Atlas Copco AB Class B 4,4% Sweden Machinery 16,3 15,1 4,1 3,7 4,6 28,0 Indutrade AB 3,8% Sweden Trading Companies & Distributors 18,1 15,1 2,2 2,5 4,3 23,7 Fenix Outdoor International 3,4% Sweden Specialty Retail 18,9 15,1 1,6 2,6 3,7 19,6 Duni AB 3,4% Sweden Household Durables 16,0 14,6 3,9 4,2 2,6 16,0 Nolato AB Class B 3,4% Sweden Industrial Conglomerates 14,7 15,1 4,0 4,2 3,3 22,6 Topp 10 49,0% 17,4 15,6 3,1 3,4 3,7 21,0 ODIN Sverige 17,9 15,8 2,9 3,3 3,1 17,0 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast
Autoliv 350 Performance - last 5 years On September 9th, Autoliv announced its planned joint venture with Nissin Kogyo, where Autoliv will own 51% and Nissin the remaining 49%. Nissin Kogyo has 5% market share in the market for brake control systems. This market is estimated to be worth more than $13 billion at the end of 2019. In relation to their Capital Markets Day, Autoliv announced the following end of decade targets: Sales of $12 billion, indicating an CAGR of around 7%. Of the $12 billion in sales the company states that around $9 billion should come from the passive safety business segment and around $3 billion from the electronics business segment Expand the current passive safety market share from 39% Improve margins in the electronic business segment to reach the long-term corporate margin target range, while a least maintaining the current margin level in the passive safety segment Grow EPS faster than the sales growth. We are positive to these new targets and are quite confident that they will be reached, as we believe they are on the conservative side. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AUTOLIV INC AUTOLIV INC-SDR OMX Stockholm Bmrk CapGI Auto Parts & Equipment Market Value (mill) 79,773 Price 906.00 Price currency SEK Net debt 72 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill) 79,845 FX rate (NOK) 8.21 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) 7,171 8,232 8,267 8,803 9,241 9,041 9,791 EBIT (operating Income) (mill) 869 889 705 761 723 820 949 Net Income (mill) 591 623 483 486 468 547 611 Price/earnings 8.0 9.6 14.0 16.4 18.0 17.6 15.6 Price/Book Value 2.4 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.6 EV/EBIT 8.3 5.3 8.7 10.8 13.1 12.1 10.6 Return on Equity (%) 22.2 19.9 13.6 12.6 12.6 15.2 17.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3
MTG 250 Performance - last 5 years Last month there have been two positive news from MTG. First of all, Russian CTC is now out of the books and focus could then again be on core business. Since they invested in CTC ten years ago they have quadrupled their investment. The second major news from the company came in the start of October where they announced that they have secured the English Premier League football rights for three more seasons in Sweden, Denmark and Finland. This is the first time for Finland. The stock market has feared that MTG would lose the rights to the competitor Discovery. 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MODERN TIMES-B OMX Stockholm Bmrk CapGI Despite the higher prices on content we think it is important to have the major sports content to be able to capitalize on Viaplay going forward. On top of this the company continue with their cost programme with annual savings of around SEK 600 mill. We also believe in operational improvements and both in total will more than compensate for the increased content cost. The company has a strong balance sheet and we think we will see more acquisitions inline with the Turtle Entertainment, Splay and Zoomin TV. For the first half they have spend SEK 1,2 bn on acquisitions. MODERN TIMES-B Broadcasting Market Value (mill) 15,283 Price 225.60 Price currency SEK Net debt 415 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) 15,698 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) 13,101 13,473 13,336 14,073 15,746 16,305 17,393 EBIT (operating Income) (mill) 1,950-1,242 1,709 1,162 1,118 1,081 1,460 Net Income (mill) 3,522-1,327 1,526 1,092 1,139 986 1,027 Price/earnings 11.2 12.4 14.9 13.3 13.2 16.1 14.9 Price/Book Value 4.9 5.3 3.1 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 EV/EBIT 16.4 #N/A N/A 9.2 20.2 15.3 14.7 10.8 Return on Equity (%) 62.0-26.2 33.6 21.7 21.0 13.2 18.1 Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.7 4.4 3.2 4.4 4.9 5.1
AAK 450 400 Performance - last 5 years AAK is making a new step for healthy people in India. Last year AAK announced major greenfield projects in China and Brazil. Now they are doing a larger acquisition in India. They have acquired 51 % of the shares of Kamani Oil Industries, a producer of speciality oil and fats in India. The company selling for about 6% of AAK s revenue. An options to buy the whole company within next 3-7 years are also a part of the deal. Margins in the acquired company are probably lower than AAK but they have showed historically that they are able to improve profitability to group average. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AAK AB OMX Stockholm Bmrk CapGI We see the deal as an important step to further expand their emerging market presence. AAK is on the way to increase their exposure to emerging market. This is part of their long term plan and in 2016 they probably have 70 % of their volume in emerging markets. The growing middle class and consumers are the main reason behind the strategy of more production in emerging markets. AAK AB Packaged Foods & Meats Market Value (mill) 22,833 Price 541.50 Price currency SEK Net debt 2,363 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) 25,196 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) 14,808 16,695 16,911 16,537 17,814 20,044 21,714 EBIT (operating Income) (mill) 882 914 996 1,117 1,265 1,403 1,557 Net Income (mill) 624 602 640 732 879 948 1,073 Price/earnings 10.7 17.3 24.4 19.8 25.6 23.9 21.2 Price/Book Value 2.4 2.3 2.9 3.9 3.0 3.6 3.2 EV/EBIT 11.8 12.4 13.9 17.1 15.7 17.9 16.0 Return on Equity (%) 20.5 17.9 17.2 17.8 17.4 15.6 15.8 Dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6
Investment Objective Long term value creation
Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price
Om ODIN Sverige På vegne av våre kunder, er ODIN en aktiv og ansvarsfull forvalter med fokus på langsiktig verdiskaping. I Sverige skapes verdiene innen et bredt utvalg av sektorer. Den gode produktutviklingen i det eksportrettede svenske næringslivet har skapt mange internasjonalt ledende selskaper. Gjennom aksjefondet ODIN Sverige kan også du ta del i verdiskapingen som skjer i det svenske næringslivet. Fakta om fondet Etableringsdato 31/10/1994 Referanseindeks OMXSB Cap GI Basisvaluta NOK Forvaltningshonorar 2.00% Tegn./innløsningsgebyr Minste tegningsbeløp 0.00% 3,000 NOK
Om forvalter
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