Eiendomsverdi. The housing market Update September 2013

Transkript

1 Eiendomsverdi The housing market Update September 2013

2 Executive summary September is usually a weak month but this was the weakest since Prices fell by 1.4 percent Volumes were slightly lower than last year, but remains close to the all time highs of 2011 Year over year price development is getting ever closer to zero, this month it fell to 2.6 percent Time on the market remains low The ask/sell spread narrowed considerably again after coming out in August. At 1 percent it is closing up on zero The unsold stock continued to increase, and is now the highest in over 3 years almost 20 percent higher than last year 12 month housing starts remains close to the levels seen before the financial crisis but fell throughout the 3 rd quarter 2

3 House prices Norway September Down 1,4% As is usual the market was weak in September, however this was the biggest fall since 2008 Table 1. Summary Norwegian House Price Index Eff Index Index (Q = 100) 243,0 Change september ,4 % Change september ,4 % Change september ,2 % Change august ,2 % Change juli ,7 % Year to Date 3,4 % Year over Year 2,6 % 5 Years 37,0 % Price Change since previous All Time High (August 2007) 28,4 % Price Change since previous Through (December 2008) 48,8 % Source: Eff, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

4 Rolling 12 month development in house prices The 12 month growth rate in September fell further to just 2,6 percent. It has been falling steadily throughout Source: Eff, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi This is the lowest 12 month rate since mid 2009

5 House prices by housing type All segments down All segments fell Detached is no longer the strongest segment Y/Y or YTD. Table 2 Summary by Property Type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (jan 09 = 100) 132,8 141,6 145,3 Change september ,4 % -1,2 % -1,2 % Change september ,6 % -0,5 % -0,6 % Change september ,1 % -0,2 % -0,3 % Change august ,6 % 3,7 % 1,5 % Change juli ,3 % -3,5 % -0,9 % Year to Date 5,2 % 5,2 % 6,0 % Year over Year 2,6 % 2,7 % 2,6 % 5 Years 29,0 % 34,8 % 39,9 % Price Change since previous All Time High (August 2007) 21,0 % 29,0 % 29,4 % Price Change since previous Through (December 2008) 40,5 % 49,1 % 51,3 % Source: Eff, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi YTD the strongest segment is now apartments and Y/Y the strongest is terraced.

6 House prices by Area The best performing region since the 2009 is Trøndelags - fylkene (with the third biggest city, Trondheim). However the second best performing region is now Oslo. The worst performing is still Agder fylkene

7 House prices by Area The green line = Norway

8 House prices by Area Table 3 Summary by Area Agder Hordaland Nord-Norge Oslo Rogaland Trøndelag Norway Index (Jan 09 = 100) 122,8 143,9 139,1 148,3 147,0 154,4 141,0 Change september ,9 % -1,3 % -1,2 % -1,6 % -1,6 % -1,3 % -1,4 % Change september ,9 % -0,3 % -0,3 % 0,0 % -0,2 % -0,1 % -0,3 % Change september ,3 % -0,1 % 0,1 % 0,4 % 0,2 % 0,4 % 0,2 % Change august ,9 % 2,6 % 2,9 % 2,0 % 2,0 % 2,3 % 2,2 % Change juli ,0 % -1,6 % -1,4 % -1,8 % -1,8 % -1,6 % -1,7 % Year to Date 1,5 % 7,0 % 8,0 % 5,5 % 4,8 % 7,6 % 5,7 % Year over Year -1,7 % 3,7 % 4,9 % 3,7 % 2,7 % 5,0 % 3,1 % 5 Years 17,6 % 35,3 % 31,7 % 40,3 % 40,5 % 47,3 % 34,4 % Price Change since previous All Time High 15,6 % 22,8 % 22,2 % 27,8 % 37,7 % 37,2 % 28,5 % Price Change since previous Through 27,3 % 48,3 % 43,6 % 53,0 % 51,9 % 59,8 % 45,7 % Source: Eff, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

9 Median Price by Area Q3 The highest prices can be found in Rogaland for apartments, and in Oslo for houses The lowest prices can be found in Hedmark, Telemark and Oppland The median Price for Norway was 2,3 mnok for apartments and 2,8 mnok for houses

10 Apartments in the big cities Since 2009 the strongest performer has been Trondheim. Kristiansand continues to underperform. Source: EFF, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi Tromsø was the strongest performing market in September, and has been the strongest since the start of 2012

11 Apartments in the big cities

12 Apartments in the big cities Table 4: Apartments by cities Oslo Bergen Kristiansand Stavanger Tromsø Trondheim Norway Index (Jan 09 = 100) 148,6 148,2 119,3 152,8 135,8 158,2 144,4 Change september ,4 % -1,0 % -1,6 % -1,5 % -0,6 % -1,3 % -1,2 % Change september ,5 % -0,7 % -1,6 % -0,6 % -0,8 % -0,3 % -0,6 % Change september ,1 % -0,3 % -0,3 % -0,1 % 0,0 % -0,1 % 0,0 % Change august ,3 % 1,9 % 1,1 % 1,4 % 2,7 % 1,5 % 1,5 % Change juli ,0 % -0,8 % -1,0 % -1,0 % -0,5 % -0,7 % -0,9 % Year to Date 5,5 % 8,3 % -0,2 % 3,6 % 12,4 % 7,8 % 6,0 % Year over Year 3,4 % 4,3 % -2,6 % 1,7 % 8,4 % 5,2 % 3,3 % 5 Years 41,6 % 39,7 % 14,1 % 46,2 % 28,5 % 52,1 % 38,2 % Price Change since previous All Time High 28,9 % 24,3 % 11,6 % 42,6 % 17,6 % 37,6 % 30,0 % Price Change since previous Through 54,1 % 53,3 % 23,6 % 58,4 % 40,7 % 64,3 % 49,7 % Source: Eff, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

13 Bidding contest still cool After heating up in August bidding contests cooled significantly in September. The ask/sell spread for September is the narrowest since 2009, at 1 percent, compared to 4 percent in September 2012 Source: Eiendomsverdi

14 Bidding contests cold in all cities Source: Eiendomsverdi

15 Kristiansand - sellers have not achieved asking price since March 12 Table 5 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Norway Bergen Kristiansand Oslo Stavanger Tromsø Trondheim september ,2 % 4,3 % -1,7 % 2,8 % 0,0 % 0,6 % 1,1 % Average ( ) 2,3 % 4,2 % 1,9 % 4,8 % 2,7 % -1,1 % 2,6 % All-time high 6,3 % 8,8 % 9,8 % 10,7 % 10,2 % 3,5 % 7,9 % Date All time high ( ) Aug 06 Mai 06 Jun 06 Aug 06 Jan 07 Jan 13 Feb 13 All-time low -5,7 % -5,1 % -7,1 % -6,5 % -6,2 % -7,9 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) Des 08 Des 08 Des 08 Des 08 Nov 08 Okt 08 Nov 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

16 Unsold stock increase to highest level since mid 2010 Source: Eiendomsverdi

17 Unsold stock increasing significantly everywhere except Bergen Source: Eiendomsverdi

18 And Tromsø Source: Eiendomsverdi

19 Strong volumes despite the weak market Strong volumes but not as high as the record years of 2011 and September this year is at the same level as last year Source: Eff, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

20 Volumes YTD still high but lower than 2011 and 2012 Source: Eff, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

21 Time on market Stays low, but increase one day from 2012 Time on the market remains at similar levels as in the bull years before the financial crisis. Source: Eff, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

22 Norway house prices outperforms Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Halifax House price Index, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

23 Second Homes Source: Eiendomsverdi AS

24 Second Homes Time on Market Source: Eiendomsverdi AS

25 Second Homes Volumes Source: Eiendomsverdi AS

26 Housing starts Norway August lower than last year August 2013 saw housing starts compared to in August Source: SSB

27 Housing starts Norway 12 months rolling 12 month rolling remains high, and still only slightly lower than the highs reached before the financial crisis. However it may have peaked for this cycle Source: SSB

28 Eiendomsverdi s estimates - sales in August underestimated by 1,3% Every month Eiendomsverdi s estimates are compared to the actual sales that month. The sum of all estimates are typically slightly lower than the sum off all actual sales prices. Source: Eiendomsverdi AS In September the sum of our estimates were 1,3 % lower than the sum of the actual sales prices

29 Contact information EIENDOMSVERDI AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: post@eiendomsverdi.no Managing Director Espen Relbo Tel: ewr@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: al@eiendomsverdi.no