Manpower Q Employment Outlook Survey Norway

Transkript

1 Manpower Q Employment Outlook Survey Norway

2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Global Q1/14 Contents Norway Employment Outlook 3 Regional Comparisons 4 Sector Comparisons 6 Global Employment Outlook 9 International Comparisons Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 11 International Comparisons Americas 15 International Comparisons Asia Pacific 17 Om ManpowerGroup 19 Om undersøkelsen 19 Ordliste over bransjer 20 2

3 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Norway Employment Outlook The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter 2014 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 751 employers in Norway. All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2014 as compared to the current quarter? Norwegian employers report cautious hiring intentions for 1Q With 5% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 3% anticipating a decrease and 92% forecasting no change, the Net Employment Outlook stands at +2%. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. When compared with the previous quarter, employers report a 2 percentage point decline in the Outlook. Hiring prospects are 3 percentage points weaker yearover-year. Once the data has been adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +3% and is the weakest since the survey began in 3Q While hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, employers report a 3 percentage point year-over-year decline. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. 3

4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Regional Comparisons Employers in all five regions expect to grow staffing levels during the upcoming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in Northern Norway where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +7%. Employers in the Eastern region report an Outlook of +6% and some payroll gains are forecast in both Mid Norway and Greater Oslo where Outlooks stand at +4% and +2%, respectively. Hiring intentions weaken in three of the five regions when compared with the previous quarter. The most noteworthy declines are by 5 percentage points in Mid Norway and 3 percentage points in Greater Oslo. Meanwhile, the Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger in both the Eastern and Northern regions. When compared with 1Q 2013, the Outlook for the South/West declines by a considerable margin of 10 percentage points and employers in Eastern Norway report a 4 percentage point decrease. Elsewhere, the Northern Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger and employers report no change in both Greater Oslo and Mid Norway. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate payroll gains in four of the five regions during the next three months with the strongest labor market expected in Eastern Norway. Hiring intentions weaken in four regions when compared with the previous quarter and also decline in two regions year-over-year. Eastern Greater Oslo Mid Northern South/West Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Eastern +6* (+5**)% Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the January-March time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring plans strengthen by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter but are 4 percentage points weaker year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some payroll gains in the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter but slightly weaker year-over-year. *Seasonally Adjusted Outlook **Net Employment Outlook 4

5 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Greater Oslo +2 (+3)% Slow-paced hiring activity is forecast for 1Q 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Hiring prospects decline by 3 percentage points quarterover-quarter and are unchanged when compared with 1Q Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast modest job gains in the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker when compared with the previous quarter and is unchanged year-over-year. Mid +4 (+3)% Employers expect some opportunities to increase staffing levels during 1Q 2014, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. While the Outlook is 5 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects are unchanged year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a conservative hiring pace in the coming quarter. Hiring intentions are moderately weaker quarter-over-quarter but are unchanged year-over-year Northern +7 (+3)% Job seekers can expect to benefit from a cautiously optimistic hiring environment in the January-March period according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. Hiring prospects strengthen by 3 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-overyear. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a modest increase in payrolls during the next three months. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and are slightly stronger year-over-year. South/West +1 (-1)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +1% for 1Q 2014 employers report the weakest hiring intentions since 1Q The Outlook remains relatively stable quarterover-quarter but declines by 10 percentage points yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate an uncertain hiring pace in the coming quarter. Hiring plans weaken slightly when compared with the previous quarter and decline considerably year-over-year. 5

6 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Sector Comparisons Employers in seven of the nine industry sectors expect to increase staffing levels during 1Q The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in the Construction sector where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +12%, while Manufacturing sector employers report a cautiously optimistic Outlook of +8%. The Outlook stands at +6% in three sectors the Electricity, Gas & Water sector, the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector. Meanwhile, employers in two sectors report negative hiring intentions, including the Transport, Storage & Communication sector with an Outlook of -3%. When compared with the previous quarter, employers report stronger hiring prospects in five of the nine industry sectors. The Electricity, Gas & Water sector Outlook improves by 6 percentage points and increases of 4 percentage points are reported in both the Construction sector and the Public & Social sector. However, hiring intentions weaken in four sectors. The most noteworthy declines of 6 and 5 percentage points are reported in the Transport, Storage & Communication sector and the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector, respectively. Employers in six of the nine industry sectors report weaker hiring plans when compared with 1Q The Transport, Storage & Communication sector Outlook declines by 12 percentage points and a 10 percentage point decrease is reported in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector employers report a decline of 9 percentage points while the Outlook for the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector decreases by 6 percentage points. Elsewhere, hiring intentions strengthen in three sectors, most notably by 4 percentage points in the Construction sector. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast an increase in payrolls in six of the nine industry sectors during the January-March time frame. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in the Electricity, Gas & Water sector. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects decline in six sectors, and employers report a decrease in five sectors year-over-year. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing -1 (-8)% Employers anticipate an uncertain hiring climate in the forthcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -1%. While the Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger quarter-over-quarter, employers report a 6 percentage point decline year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect the labor market slump to continue during 1Q Hiring plans are unchanged quarter-over-quarter and decline moderately when compared with 1Q

7 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Construction +12 (+5)% A steady hiring pace is forecast for the January-March time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. Hiring intentions improve by 4 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-overyear. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker when compared with the previous quarter but slightly stronger year-over-year. Electricity, Gas & Water +6 (+7)% Some payroll gains are expected in 1Q 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring prospects strengthen by 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and remain relatively stable yearover-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in the coming quarter. The Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter and is unchanged year-over-year. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services +6 (+5)% Job seekers can expect some hiring opportunities in the upcoming quarter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. However, this matches the weakest forecast since the survey began in 3Q 2003, last reported in 1Q Hiring plans weaken by 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 9 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a conservative hiring pace in 1Q The Outlook is moderately weaker both quarter-over-quarter and yearover-year. Manufacturing +8 (+4)% Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring intentions for the January-March time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring plans strengthen by 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 2 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some payroll gains in 1Q The Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter but slightly stronger yearover-year. 7

8 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway Mining & Quarrying +3 (-4)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +3% employers expect some job gains in 1Q 2014, but the forecast is the weakest since 4Q Hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline by 2 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a decline in staffing levels during the next three months. The Outlook is considerably weaker when compared with the previous quarter and also decreases slightly year-over-year. Public & Social +3 (+3)% A slight workforce increase is likely in 1Q 2014 according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +3%. Hiring prospects improve by 4 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and remain relatively stable year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect some payroll gains in the coming quarter. Hiring intentions strengthen moderately quarter-over-quarter and also improve slightly when compared with 1Q Transport, Storage & Communication -3 (-7)% Employers report the weakest, and first negative, hiring intentions since the survey began in 3Q 2003 with a Net Employment Outlook of -3% for the next three months. Hiring prospects decline by 6 percentage points quarterover-quarter and by 12 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a labor market slump in 1Q The Outlook is considerably weaker both quarter-over-quarter and yearover-year. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels +6 (+3)% Some hiring opportunities are likely in the January-March time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. However, hiring plans weaken both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, declining by 5 and 10 percentage points, respectively. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a slight increase in staffing levels during the coming quarter. However, hiring prospects are moderately weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline considerably year-over-year. 8

9 Global Employment Outlook Each quarter ManpowerGroup conducts research to measure employment trends* in the world s major labor markets. To measure hiring expectations between January and March 2014, ManpowerGroup interviewed over 65,000 employers in 42 countries and territories. Despite continuing economic challenges and widespread uncertainty in the global labor market, the first-quarter research reveals that the majority of hiring managers will continue to add to their workforces by varying degrees during the first quarter of Payroll additions are expected to outpace payroll reductions in 34 of the 42 countries and territories. Employers in Taiwan, India and New Zealand report the strongest first-quarter hiring plans globally. The weakest - and only negative - Net Employment Outlooks are reported in Italy, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Slovakia and Belgium. Hiring optimism strengthens from three months ago in 21 countries and territories, but weakens in 15. Outlooks are also stronger in 21 countries and territories in a year-over-year comparison, but decline in 17. When global labor markets are viewed as a group, there is little evidence of an overriding trend among hiring managers. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, employer hiring intentions in the G7 countries improve marginally or remain relatively stable, and employer forecasts elsewhere provide few indications of a noteworthy universal shift toward stronger or weaker labor market activity. Instead, the first-quarter research indicates that marketplace uncertainty continues to concern employers, many of whom report that they intend to add to their payrolls, but at rates far more modest than in the pre-recession years. Even employers in those labor markets that until very recently reported consistently impressive levels of hiring activity - such as in China, Brazil and Turkey - have now scaled back hiring plans to still positive but more modest levels. Regionally, employers throughout Asia Pacific continue to report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Job seekers in Survey Respondents by Region Taiwan are likely to benefit from the most robust hiring pace in the region, with more than one in every three employers indicating they plan to add to their payrolls in the first quarter. First-quarter prospects are also bright for India s job seekers with a brisk hiring pace expected in most industry sectors and all regions. Japan s Outlook is the strongest reported since the second quarter of 2008 and follows more than four years of steadily improving forecasts. Hiring plans also remain positive in China, but the Outlook continues to rest at a position below the more optimistic forecasts of late 2010 and early 2011, and the steady erosion of employer confidence in China adds further evidence that the country s growth track may be leveling off. The Asia Pacific region s weakest forecast is reported in Australia despite moderate quarter-over-quarter improvements in both the Mining & Construction and Finance sectors. Employer hiring intentions remain positive in all 10 countries Manpower Group surveys in the Americas. However, the firstquarter forecasts are mostly weaker in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Colombian employers expect the strongest hiring pace with three out of 10 employers expecting to grow first-quarter payrolls. A steady hiring pace is also expected in Brazil, but the country s Outlook has weakened by varying degrees for nine consecutive quarters and now stands at its weakest point since the Brazilian survey was launched in The U.S. Outlook remains upbeat and is relatively stable in both quarter-over-quarter and year-overyear comparisons. In the EMEA region, hiring trends remain mixed with employers reporting positive hiring intentions in 16 of the 24 countries surveyed. Outlooks improve in 15 of 24 countries from three months ago but weaken in seven. In a year-over-year comparison, forecasts improve in 13 countries but weaken in eight. The region s strongest hiring plans are reported in Turkey and weakest in Italy where employers report negative hiring intentions for the 12th consecutive quarter. Conversely, opportunities for job seekers in Greece are expected to improve noticeably in the next three months as the Outlook climbs for the sixth consecutive quarter and employers report the strongest hiring intentions in over five years. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. For the Quarter research ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 65,000 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 46% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 23% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA. 9

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11 International Comparisons EMEA Over 20,000 employer interviews have been conducted across 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter The region presents a mixed picture. Positive hiring activity is expected in 16 of 24 countries surveyed in the region, and employer hiring expectations are stronger from both three months ago and last year at this time in the majority of countries. However, GDP estimates throughout the Eurozone indicate that recovery continues at a painfully slow pace, and at a rate that will likely not be enough to significantly reduce unemployment - especially among youth where unemployment for those 25 and under remains over 24 percent. First-quarter hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Israel and Poland. Turkey s Outlook is fueled by steep yearover-year improvements in the Pharmaceutical and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. Poland s Outlooks improve in most sectors and regions in both quarterover-quarter and year-over-year comparisons, and Polish employers post their strongest overall forecast in more than two years. The EMEA region s weakest hiring intentions are reported by employers in Italy where employer hiring plans improve slightly from three months ago but remain negative and unchanged from year-ago levels. The Outlook in Greece grows more promising. Following revisions to the Q forecast, employer hiring plans are positive for the second consecutive quarter, and employers report the strongest Outlook since Q Positive hiring intentions are reported in seven of the nine industry sectors and in both regions, and in a yearover-year comparison Outlooks improve by considerable margins in eight of nine sectors and in both regions. Employer hiring intentions in Germany remain cautiously optimistic. For the seventh consecutive quarter, employers in the Finance & Business Services sector report the strongest hiring plans, and opportunities for job seekers in the Transport, Storage & Communications sector are expected to grow considerably compared to three months ago. However, employers throughout Germany continue to express concern about ongoing talent shortages, and many are acknowledging the need to strengthen efforts to adopt more flexible recruiting strategies in order to secure talent with the necessary employability skills. Meanwhile, hiring in France is expected to proceed at a positive but slow pace as employers continue to struggle with tax policies that they insist place a burden on meaningful job growth. Hiring intentions are strongest in the Finance & Business Services sector, while the Outlook in the Restaurants & Hotels sector sinks again and matches the weakest forecast since the survey began in Q Austria Belgium 11

12 Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland 12

13 Israel Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 13

14 South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK 14

15 International Comparisons Americas Nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries throughout North, Central and South America were interviewed to measure hiring plans for Quarter Employers in each country report varying degrees of positive hiring intentions for the next three months with Net Employment Outlooks remaining relatively stable or improving in six of the 10 countries in comparison to Quarter However, in comparison to Quarter , Outlooks decline or remain relatively stable in nine of the 10 countries. Employer optimism is strongest in Colombia, Brazil and Peru and weakest in Argentina. Colombia s upbeat forecast is driven by a considerable uptick in demand for talent in the Mining sector, as well as active labor markets expected in the Orinoquia and Pacific regions. Peru s upbeat forecast is fueled in large part by expectations of a vigorous hiring pace in the Public Administration/Education sector as well as a surge in demand in the country s Services sector. The hiring pace in Brazil remains steady, with over one in every five employers expecting to add to their payrolls in the first three months of the year. However, the Outlook has now been in decline for nine consecutive quarters with forecasts in the majority of Brazil s industry sectors and regions at the weakest levels reported by employers since the survey started in Quarter Elsewhere in the Americas, the Outlook in the United States remains upbeat, and the recent government shutdown seems to have had little effect on the first-quarter forecast. U.S. employers expect the hiring pace to remain relatively stable in comparison to the prior quarter and last year at this time; the national Outlook is buoyed by solid hiring plans in the Leisure & Hospitality sector where more than a quarter of the employers surveyed indicate they will add to their workforce. Opportunities for job seekers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and the Professional & Business sectors are also expected to remain steady despite slight declines in comparison to forecasts in the prior quarter and prior year. Positive hiring intentions are reported in each of Canada s industry sectors and regions, with Construction sector employers reporting the strongest forecast for the second consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, the Outlook in Mexico s Mining & Construction sector improves for the third consecutive quarter, boosted by growing demand for talent in the country s petroleum industry. However, while forecasts remain uniformly positive, the overall hiring pace in Mexico is expected to soften as Outlooks decline by varying degrees in all industry sectors and regions when compared to forecasts from Q Argentina Brazil 15

16 Canada Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Panama Peru USA 16

17 International Comparisons Asia Pacific Interviews with over 15,000 employers have been conducted within the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring activity in Quarter Job prospects remain positive across the region, with employers in Taiwan, India and New Zealand reporting the strongest hiring plans. Outlooks improve in four of the eight countries and territories in a quarter-overquarter comparison, and in six of eight when compared year-over year. The Taiwanese Outlook is the most optimistic among the 42 countries and territories surveyed this quarter, and so far employer confidence in this export-driven economy appears unaffected by market uncertainty elsewhere. More than one in three employers plan to add to their payrolls in the next three months, with employers in the Transportation & Utilities and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors reporting their most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began in Taiwan in Q India s first-quarter hiring pace is expected to remain robust despite quarter-over-quarter declines in all seven of the country s industry sectors and in three of its four regions. Forecasts are strongest in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Mining & Construction sector where job seekers are expected to benefit from aggressive efforts to improve infrastructure throughout the country. The hiring pace is also expected to remain brisk in the Services sector where IT talent continues to be aggressively recruited by both national and multinational firms. Employer optimism in Japan continues to grow, and the country s job seekers will likely benefit from the strongest job forecast since the second quarter of Hiring plans in the country s Mining & Construction sector are also the strongest reported by employers since Japan s survey started in Q Elsewhere, hiring plans in China have remained steady for three consecutive quarters, but employer optimism is tempered by uncertainty in Europe China s largest export market as well as concerns that a lack of home-grown managerial talent will threaten continued growth opportunities. The forecast in Singapore strengthens moderately from year-ago levels, boosted in part by considerable Outlook improvements in the Transportation & Utilities sector as efforts continue to enhance Singapore s role as the region s central air cargo and maritime hub. For the seventh consecutive quarter, employers in Australia report the region s weakest hiring plans. However, the forecast improves slightly in comparison to the prior quarter following a moderate gain in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Mining & Construction sectors amid signs that the country s Resources sector will gradually ramp up production. Australia China 17

18 Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 18

19 Om ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup er verdensledende i å finne riktig bemanningsløsning, basert på menneskers potensiale og bedrifters ambisjoner. På denne måten skaper vi Innovative Workforce Solutions. ManpowerGroup hjelper både små og store bedrifter i alle bransjer under varemerkene: ManpowerGroup Solutions, Experis, Manpower, Right Management og Workshop Bemanning. Vi er lokalisert i mer enn 80 land over hele verden. Ved global forståelse og lokal kompetanse, øker vi våre kunders suksess. Virksomheten i Norge genererer over oppdrag årlig. Vi har kontorer i 35 byer og tettsteder og medarbeidere knyttet til oss. Om undersøkelsen Regioner: Stor-Oslo: Oslo, Akershus Østlandet: Hedmark, Oppland, Telemark, Buskerud, Østfold, Vestfold Sør- og Vestlandet: Agder, Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane Midt-Norge: Møre og Romsdal, Sør- og Nord- Trøndelag Nord-Norge: Nordland, Troms, Finnmark Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir gjennomført kvartalsvis for å måle arbeidsgivernes planer om å øke eller redusere arbeidsstyrken i løpet av det neste kvartalet. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse er den mest omfattende, pålitelige og framtidsrettede bemanningsundersøkelse i verden. Undersøkelsen er blitt utført i mer enn 50 år. Forskjellige faktorer underbygger suksessen til Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer: Unik: Undersøkelsen har ingen paralleller i størrelse, omfang, levetid og fokusområde. Ser fremover: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer er en undersøkelse som ser fremover, idet den spør arbeidsgivere om å forutsi bemanning i det kommende kvartal. Dette i motsetning til andre undersøkelser som fokuserer på retrospektive data og rapporterer hva som hendte tidligere. Fokusert: I mer enn 50 år har undersøkelsen vært basert på ett og samme spørsmål. Uavhengig: Undersøkelsen er utført blant utvalgte representanter fra arbeidsgivere i hvert enkelt land. Arbeidsgiverne er valgt uavhengig av om de er kunder av ManpowerGroup. Omfattende: Undersøkelsen er basert på intervjuer med over offentlige og private arbeidsgivere i 42 land og landområder for å måle forventet arbeidsmarkedstrend hvert kvartal. Dette utvalget bidrar til at analyser kan utføres i spesielle sektorer og regioner og derved fremskaffe detaljert informasjon. Spørsmålet i undersøkelsen Alle arbeidsgivere som deltar i undersøkelsen globalt blir stilt det samme spørsmålet, Hvilken endring i antall ansatte forventer du i din bedrift for neste kvartal som ender i mars 2014 i forhold til forrige kvartal? Metodikk Undersøkelsen er utført ved en godkjent metodikk i tråd med de beste kvalitetsnormer for denne typen undersøkelser. Undersøkelsesgruppene for de 42 land og landområdene hvor undersøkelsen gjennomføres inkluderer ManpowerGroups Internal Research Team and Infocorp Ltd. Undersøkelsen er strukturert slik at den er representativ for hvert enkelt landsøkonomi. Feilmarginen for alle nasjonale, lokale og globale data er ikke større enn +/- 3.9 %. I Norge er 750 arbeidsgivere spurt. Dette antallet intervjuer gir en feilmargin for den norske del av undersøkelsen på +/- 3.6 %. Netto forventet bemanning I denne rapporten benytter vi utrykket netto forventet bemanning. Dette tallet er beregnet ved å ta prosenten av arbeidsgivere som forventer en økning i antall ansatte og trekke fra prosentandelen av arbeidsgivere som forventer en nedgang i antall ansatte i sin bedrift for neste kvartal. Resultatene sammenlignes både med forrige kvartal, omtalt som kvartalsvis, og med samme kvartal året før, omtalt som på årsbasis. Sesongjusteringer Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Argentina, Australia, Belgia, Brasil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Frankrike, Guatemala, Hellas, Hongkong, India, Irland, Italia, Japan, Kina, Mexico, Nederland, New Zealand, Norge, Peru, Polen, Romania, Singapore, Sør-Afrika, Spania, Sverige, Sveits, Storbritannia, Taiwan, Tsjekkia, Tyskland, Ungarn, USA og Østerrike for å gi større innsikt i undersøkelsestallene. Disse justeringene gjør det mulig å vurdere resultatene uten de ansettelsesfluktuasjoner som normalt oppstår på samme tid hvert år slik at vi får et tydeligere bilde av situasjonen over tid. ManpowerGroup ønsker å foreta disse justeringene for de øvrige landene etter hvert som flere historiske data er innsamlet. 19

20 Historikk 1962: Første versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer ble lansert i USA og Canada. 1966: Storbritannia lanserer en undersøkelse tilsvarende den i USA, men kaller den for ManpowerGroups kvartalsvise bemanningsprognose. Denne undersøkelsen benytter den samme fremtidsforskning som den amerikanske undersøkelsen og er den første i sitt slag i Europa. 1976: Andre versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir lansert i USA og Canada. Forskningsmetodikken blir oppdatert i henhold til utviklingen av markedsundersøkelser. 2002: ManpowerGroup i Storbritannia benytter en forbedret undersøkelsesmetode i sin kvartalsvise arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse. ManpowerGroups kontorer i Mexico og Irland lanserer undersøkelsen i sine respektive land. 2003: Tredje versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer (MEOS) blir lansert for å utvide programmet til totalt 18 land: Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Canada, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania, Sverige, Storbritannia og USA. 2004: ManpowerGroup i New Zealand lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 2005: ManpowerGroup i Taiwan, Kina, India og Sveits lanserer Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. 2006: ManpowerGroup i Costa Rica, Peru og Sør-Afrika lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer i tredje kvartal er innarbeidet i tallene fra Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania og Sverige. 2007: ManpowerGroup i Argentina lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra New Zealand fra første kvartal. 2008: ManpowerGroup i Colombia, Hellas, Tsjekkia, Polen, Romania og Guatemala lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Kina og Taiwan i andre kvartal, og i tredje kvartal i tallene fra Sveits og Taiwan. 2009: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i tredje kvartal og Brasil i fjerde kvartal. 2010: ManpowerGroup i Panama lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i andre kvartal. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Peru i andre kvartal og i Costa Rica i fjerde kvartal. 2011: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i første kvartal i Manpower i Bulgaria, Slovenia og Tyrkia. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i første kvartal i tallene fra Argentina og Sør-Afrika. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i Israel og Slovakia i fjerde kvartal. 2012: ManpowerGroup i Tsjekkia, Hellas, Guatemala, Polen og Romania innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra andre kvartal. ManpowerGroup i Finland lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i fjerde kvartal og sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Colombia for første gang. 2013: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra tredje kvartal og Brasil fra fjerde kvartal. Ordliste over bransjer Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying Public & Social Transport, Storage & Communication Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Jordbruk, skogbruk, jakt og fiske Bygg og anlegg Elektrisitet-, gass- og vannforsyning Finans, forsikring, eiendom og konsulenttjenester Industri Olje og gass Offentlig tjenesteyting Transport og logistikk Handel og service 20

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