European supply and demand for Cod and Haddock

Transkript

1 European supply and demand for Cod and Haddock Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, Codfish analyst, Norwegian Seafood Council 13/02/2017

2 Capia Uavhengig informasjonsog analyseselskap Innhenter og tilrettelegger av data (via Open Source) Gjør analyser for å skape: økt innsikt bedre lønnsomhet 13/02/2017

3 Organisasjon og finansiering Etablert i 1991 Eid av Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet Fiskeriministeren fungerer som generalforsamling Finansiert av markedsavgift: 0,3-0,75 % av eksportverdien Budsjett 2015: NOK 487 millioner Over 70 ansatte (mer enn 20 er lokalisert i utlandet) Presentasjonstittel 3

4 Sammen vinner vi verden for norsk sjømat

5 Vårt oppdrag er å vinne verden for norsk sjømat i lag med den norske sjømatnæringen

6 Avdelinger Markedsføring Markedsinnsikt Kommunikasjon og beredskap Presentasjonstittel 6

7 Norsk sjømat 91,6 MRD NOK eksportverdi ,45 millioner tonn Sjømat er en av Norges viktigste eksportvarer Norge er nest største eksportør av sjømat i verden Norge eksporterte i 2016 sjømat til over 140 land

8 Norsk sjømat 36 millioner måltider norsk sjømat hver eneste dag!

9 Verdi I milliarder NOK Norsk sjømateksport Fiskeri: 26,2 milliarder NOK (29 %) Havbruk: 65,5 milliarder NOK (71 %) Fiskeri Havbruk

10 Det norske torskefiskeriet.. Sesong preget: ca. 80% landes fra januar til april Biologien til torsken Majoriteten av torskekvota er allokert til kystflåten Ca. 70% Presentasjonstittel 10

11 Produktformer

12 European Supply and demand of Cod and Haddock

13 Agenda Trade flow for cod and haddock The largest suppliers The largest markets UK imports and consumption Demand analysis

14 Global supply Thousand MT Atlantic Cod 98% is European Thousand MT Haddock FAO 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 FAO 2014 E2015 E2016 E /02/

15 82% of global supply is from Norway, Russia and Iceland

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17 100 % Main Product forms - Exports 100 % 75 % 50 % 25 % Frozen Fresh Conventional (cured) 0 % % conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen 75 % 50 % Russia Frozen 75 % 50 % 25 % Frozen Fresh Conventional (cured) 0 % conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen 25 % 0 % *Round Weight with RWE factors from Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen

18 Portugal Denmark China, People's Republic of United Kingdom % Poland Five Largest Markets United Kingdom France Spain United States % Portugal % *Direct Export measured in Tonnes (Round Weight) 0 Netherlands China, People's Republic of United Kingdom Norway Germany

19 EU IMPORTS OF COD AND HADDOCK

20 Percentage EU Import Dependency* *2014 numbers

21 99% EU Import of Cod and Haddock YTD (Jan-Nov) Round Weight Thousand MT *Excluding Intra-trade Norway Iceland China, People's Republic of Russian Federation Faroe Islands United States Greenland

22 Round Weight MT Biggest Import Markets in EU Great Britain Netherlands Portugal Sweeden France Spain Denmark Germany Poland *Including Intra-trade

23 UK Market For COD AND HADDOCK

24 Round Weight MT UK Imports of Cod And Haddock Haddock Frozen 77% Haddock Fresh 23% Cod Frozen 79% Cod Fresh 16% cod haddock

25 Prices in GBP Import prices of Cod and Haddock 2 1,5 1 0, Prices Round Weight cod haddock

26 Demand Analysis Presentasjonstittel 26

27 Demand Model Boring

28 Elasticity of Demand and substitutions between Cod and Haddock Table. Estimated I ncome Elasticity and M arshallian Price Elasticity (AIDS model with data 2005:M 1~2014:M 5) Income Own-Price Cross price elasticity, w.r.t. Species Elasticity Elasticity Cod Haddock Salmon Cod Haddock Salmon The income elasticity of cod is 0.86, indicating that a 1% increased income leads to 0.86% increase in cod consumption. The own-price elasticity is When price increases by 1%, the volume of cod consumed would reduce by 1.85%. This leads to a reduction in revenue. Cross-price elasticity reveals response of cod volume to changes in the prices of substitutes. For example, if haddock price rises 1%, consumers would partly substitute out haddock with cod. This would raise cod volume by 0.59%

29 Kg UK consumption of Cod and Haddock Fillets Frozen Haddock Fillets 7% 1500 Fresh Haddock Fillets 35% 1000 Fresh Cod Fillets 12% 500 Fresh Cod Fillets 45% Source; Europanel/NSC Cod - Fillets - Fresh Cod - Fillets - Frozen Haddock - Fillets - Fresh Haddock - Fillets - Frozen

30 Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP Fresh Fresh - Cod - Fillets Fresh - Haddock - Fillets Source: Europanel/NSC

31 Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP 10 9 Frozen Frozen - Cod - Fillets Frozen - Haddock - Fillets Source: Europanel/NSC

32 Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP Fresh Frozen Cod - Fillets - Fresh Cod - Fillets - Frozen Haddock - Fillets - Fresh Haddock - Fillets - Frozen Source: Europanel/NSC

33 Results

34 Results Income elasticity Own-Price Elasticity Cod Fresh Filet Cross price elasticity, w.r.t. Haddock Fresh filet Cod Frozen Filet Haddock Frozen Filet Product Cod Fresh Filet Haddock fresh Filet Cod Frozen Filet Haddock Frozen Filet

35 Response to change in Income When income Increases the consumer buy more Cod and Haddock

36 Response to change in Price When Price Increase... the consumer buy less Cod and Haddock Good Price! Too expensive!

37 Substitution When Price of Fresh Cod Fillets Increase... I go for haddock instead some consumer buys Fresh Haddock Fillets in stead

38 We find that when income increases the consumption of Cod and Haddock increases

39 We find that consumers are price sensitive When price of Fresh Cod Filets increases then consumption decreases And opposite when price decreases consumers are more sensitive to increases in the price of the frozen products

40 We find that there is substitution between Species When price of Fresh Cod Filets increases the consumption of Fresh Haddock Filets increases And opposite when Fresh Haddock Filets price increases

41 We find that but there is less substitution between Fresh and Frozen When price of Fresh Cod Filets increase the consumption of the frozen filets does not change

42 Summary 98% of cod and haddock are supplied by european countries EU is the most important market for cod and haddock UK is the most important market within the EU UK importers and consumers are prices sensitive, responsive to changes in income and they substitute between cod and haddock

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