SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport april 2015

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1 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport april 215

2 Hovedtrekk april 215 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki falt,5 prosent i april mens vekstmarkedsindeksen steg,5 prosent i den samme perioden. Som i mars skyldtes noe av differansen en sterk måned for kinesiske aksjer, hvor fondet har en lavere eksponering enn indeksen. April var en god måned for litt vårrengjøring i SKAGEN Kon-Tikis portefølje. Vi solgte oss ut av flere posisjoner som enten hadde nådd eller var tett på kursmålene sine. Posisjonene inkluderer Value Partners, et av Asias største kapitalforvaltningsselskaper, og Kiwoom, et nettbasert koreansk finansforetak. Vi solgte oss også ut av det Sør Afrikanske råvareselskapet Exxaro, samt Avance Gas, som eier og drifter VLGC skip. Det ble ikke gjort noen nye investeringer i april. Mens det er Kina som preger overskriftene, er det interessant å merke seg at Korea har hatt en nesten ubemerket opptur med den koreanske indeksen, KOSPI, så langt i år. Inntjeningssesongen har startet bra med solide driftsresultater innen forbruker- og teknologisektoren, inkludert vår beholdning i Samsung Electronics (les mer lenger bak i rapporten). Makrodataene ser også lovende ut, med bedret stemning blant forbrukerne. Koreanske aksjer kan ha en betydelig oppside når verdsettelsene begynner å reflektere sterkere fundamentale forhold. Ungarn hadde en sterk måned etter at landets sentralbank kuttet renten med,15 prosent til 1,85 prosent, og med løfte om flere kutt. Brasil hadde også en god måned drevet av forventninger om kutt i offentlig forbruk og den etterlengtede publiseringen Petrobras-regnskapet for 214. Russland hadde også en sterk måned etter at den russiske sentralbanken kuttet renten med 1,5 prosent til 12,5 prosent. Blant de svakere markedene var Indonesia, India og Egypt. Vekstmarkedene handler nå på 3 prosent rabatt mot de utviklede markedene (målt i P/B). Etter fire år med mindreavkastning i forhold til utviklede markeder, er det duket for at vekstmarkedene kan gjøre et comeback på mellomlang sikt. Fondets portefølje er verdsatt til P/E 215e på 8,5x og P/B på 1,2x, en betydelig rabatt i forhold til indeksens 13,3x og 1,7x. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstallene for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og er etter fradrag for gebyrer. 2

3 A Avkastning, april 215 A April QTD Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 1 år Siden start* SKAGEN Kon Tiki A -,5% -,5% 5,6% 21,7% 11,9% 7,6% 14,5% 16,5% MSCI EM Index,5%,5% 1,6% 36,3% 13,1% 8,1% 11,6% 1,1% Relativ avkastning -1,% -1,% -5,% -14,6% -1,3% -,5% 3,% 6,4% Note: Alle avkastningstall utover 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 5. april 22 3

4 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki har slått indeks i 11 av 13 år (%) 13 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A* (NOK) MSCI EM Index (NOK) Hittil i år 215 Note: Alle tall i NOK, etter gebyrer * Startdato: 5. april 22 4

5 Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene i april 215 (i NOK) Ungarn Kina (lokal) Brasil Russland Kina (Internasjonal) Colombia Hong Kong Pakistan Nigeria Polen Argentina Vekstmarkedsindeksen Sør Korea Sør Afrika SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A Peru Singapore Tsjekkia Chile Taiwan Vietnam Malaysia Tyrkia Industrialiserte markeder Ghana Mexico USA Thailand Ukraina Filippinene Kenya Egypt India Indonesia

6 Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene så langt i 215 (i NOK) Kina (lokal) Argentina Russland Ungarn Kina (Internasjonal) Hong Kong Sør Korea Vekstmarkedsindeksen Taiwan Filippinene Sør Afrika Polen Pakistan Singapore SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A Chile Industrialiserte markeder Vietnam Thailand Tsjekkia Malaysia USA Brasil Mexico Kenya India Nigeria Indonesia Colombia Egypt Tyrkia Peru Ghana Ukraina

7 Akkumulert nettoflyt til store regionale/land fond (USD mrd) per 22. april 215 7

8 Vekstmarkedene versus utviklede markeder innkjøpssjefenes indeks Ved utgangen av april 215 8

9 P/E for vekstmarkedene rabatt mot utviklede markeder Januar 1995 april 215 Vekstmarkedene P/E Utviklede markeder P/E Hist. gj.snitt 21 Hist. gj.snitt 16 9 Kilde: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.

10 P/B for vekstmarkedene rabatt mot utviklede markeder Januar 1995 april 215 Vekstmarkedene P/B Utviklede markeder P/B 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Hist. gj.snitt 2,4 Hist. gj.snitt 1,6 1,5 1 Kilde: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.

11 Største bidragsytere, april 215 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Petrobras 156 ##### Mahindra & Mahindra -25 Richter Gedeon 152 ##### Samsung Electronics -197 X5 Retail 15 ##### Bharti Airtel -161 Value Partners 146 ##### State Bank of India -133 Lenovo 136 ##### AP Moeller - Maersk -12 Tullow Oil 12 ##### ABB -71 Hyundai Motor 117 ##### Tech Mahindra -65 Moscow Exchange 13 ##### Indosat -64 Harbin Electric 86 ##### Hitachi -6 Norwegian Air Shuttle 79 ##### Sabanci Holding -53 Total verdiskapning i april 215: NOK 66 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 11

12 Største bidragsytere så langt i 215 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Company NOK millioner Great Wall Motor 787 # Banrisul -275 Lenovo 325 # State Bank of India -275 X5 Retail 312 # Marfrig Global Foods -235 Samsung Electronics 31 # Hyundai Motor -229 Richter Gedeon 238 # Sabanci Holding -225 Naspers 29 # Vale -172 AP Moeller - Maersk 28 # Mahindra & Mahindra -126 Moscow Exchange 28 # AirAsia -111 KIWOOM Securities 27 # Hindalco Industries -12 Bharti Airtel 199 # Aveng -94 Total verdiskapning så langt i 215: NOK millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 12

13 Kjøp og salg, april 215 Kjøp Salg Sabanci Den viktigste eiendelen Akbank (ca. 4 prosent av NAV) rapporterte gode tall til tross for motvind i valuta. Sabanci eiendeler er attraktivt priset til P/B 1x, det laveste nivået på 5 år for et selskap med underliggende eiendeler som gir 16 prosent i avkastning til aksjonærene, ekskludert energidivisjonen. Value Partners (ut) Aksjen har mer enn doblet seg i år, og nådde kursmålet vårt. Exxaro (ut) Flere løse tråder og skuffende resultater, vi solgte oss ut. Kiwoom Securities (ut) Vi så begrenset oppside i aksjen etter en positiv utvikling på 45 prosent så langt i år og ledelsens beslutning om å fordele kapital til mindre lønnsomme områder på kort sikt. Avance Gas (ut) Frontline 212 fullførte salget av sine aksjer i Avance Gas til aksjonærene, en transaksjon som allerede var signalisert. Aksjen steg med 9 prosent og vi solgte oss av posisjonen. 13

14 Viktigste endringer 2. kvartal 215 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q2 Sabanci Holding Q2 Value Partners KIWOOM Securities Exxaro Resources Avance Gas Great Wall Motor AP Moeller - Maersk Lenovo Group Samsung Electronics Raiffeisen Bank Harbin Electric Hengdeli Holdings Casino Shiseido (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) 14

15 Viktigste endringer så langt i 215 Holdings increased Holdings reduced Q1 Petroleo Brasileiro Cia Brasileira (CBD) Hitachi Sabanci Banrisul Vale Euronav Hindalco Knightsbridge Shipping Cosan Golar LNG (New) (New) Q1 Heineken OCI NV Rocket Internet UIE Afren Exxaro Resources Kiwoom Securities Value Partners Avance Gas Great Wall Motor Bharti Airtel DIA Casino AP Moeller - Maersk Familymart Tech Mahindra Sistema Samsung Electronics Massmart Apollo Tyres Yingli Green Energy Harbin Electric Lenovo Group Mahindra & Mahindra (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) (Out) 15

16 Største poster i SKAGEN Kon-Tiki, april 215 Postens Kurs P/E P/E P/BV Div. yield Kurs Oppside størrelse, % 214e 215e last 14e % mål % Hyundai Motor 8, ,2 4,1,5 2, Samsung Electronics 8, , 6,6 1, 1, Great Wall Motor 4, 59,2 17,8 12,1 4,6 1,7 6 1 State Bank of India 3,8 27 1,8 8,2 1,3 1, Mahindra & Mahindra 3, ,5 11,5 2,9 1, Sabanci Holding 3,2 9,8 9,6 8,1 1, 1, ABB 2, ,7 15, 3, 2, Bharti Airtel 2, ,4 19,1 2,5, Richter Gedeon 2, ,7 16,7 1,5 1, Naspers 2, ,6 37,5 9,9, Lenovo 2,1 13,4 2,6 14,9 4,6 2, Hitachi 1, , 9,6 1,4 1, Vektet topp 12 45, 9,3 8,1 1,2 1,7 51 Vektet topp 35 74,5 11,2 8,5 1,2 1,9 48 Vekstmarkedsindeksen 14,6 13,3 1,7 2,5 Topp kursmål 17,5 13,1 1,9 1,3 16

17 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki er verdsatt med en betydelig rabatt mot vekstmarkedene til tross for en høyere vekt i «dyre» sektorer og lav vekt i «billige» sektorer ,6 13, , , ,2 1,7 P/E +1y P/E +2y P/BV Kon-Tiki MSCI EM Index Note: Verdsettelsesestimater er basert på SKAGEN Kon-Tikis uavhengige analyse og kan variere fra konsensusestimatene. 17

18 P/B for SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene 4 3,5 3 P/B SKAGEN Kon-Tiki P/B MSCI EM Index 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 Per 3. april

19 P/E SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene 18, 16, 14, P/E SKAGEN Kon-Tiki P/E MSCI EM Index 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Per 3. april

20 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Fond Indeks Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive forbruksvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Asia ex Japan EMEA Frontier Markets Japan Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norden Sør Amerika Kontanter

21 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

22 Key earnings releases and corporate news, April 215 Samsung (7.8% weight): Three Stars (i.e. Samsung) starting to shine again Summary: 1Q15 operating profit of KRW 5.98tr, -3% YoY and +13% QoQ, was a tad better than pre-released mid-range of KRW 5.9tr. The sequential improvement in a seasonally weak quarter shows that SEC s underlying business is improving. The divisional reporting shows an operating margin of 1.6% (OP of KRW 2.74tr) for the handset operation, recovering from 7.5% in 4Q14 which was hurt by inventory write downs amid weaker than expected FY14 shipment. The strong margin recovery comes without any impact from the positive launch of the Galaxy S6 high end phone which started shipping in April. Semiconductor margin rose by 3.2% points QoQ to 28.5% with OP of KRW 2.93tr, likely fuelled by recovery in the System LSI operation, which was loss making in FY14. Consumer electronics turned into a small loss of KRW 14bn amid negative FX impact and fierce competition, while Display reported earnings improvement to KRW 52bn due to success in premium products. Net profit of KRW 4.63tr declined 15% QoQ, due to normalisation of tax rate, equal to an EPS of 31,1 and an annualised RoE of 11%. Net cash, including investment assets, fell by KRW 4.3tr to 46.3tr (KRW 331k per share) amid high CAPEX of KRW 7.8tr (FY15 CAPEX said to be in line or above FY14 at KRW 24tr which is a slight upgrade), an increase in inventory as well as completion of a KRW 2.2tr buyback (1.1% of issues shares) announced in November. Management provided a fairly positive outlook for 2Q15 and FY15 with sequential profit improvement in 2Q15. They expect handset margins to improve in 2Q15 on new high end products. For the semiconductor division, management dismissed fears of overcapacity and a potential upward revision of CAPEX for the division underlines this. Implications for Investment Case: Positive. 1Q15 provided evidence that weak 2H14 handset margins was due to inventory write down, while semiconductors continued to deliver with margin expansion. Fears over a weak 2H15 should also diminish with management comments. These two key divisions, representing all of 1Q15 profit, are key value drivers. On our FY15 estimate, pref. shares (23% discount to ord.) trade at a P/E of 6.4x and P/BV of.9x with RoE of 14% and net cash representing 3% of the share price. We keep estimates and TP of KRW 1.5m unchanged with share price upside of 4%. A conservative sum-of-parts valuation points to a value of KRW 1.72m per share. 22

23 Key earnings releases and corporate news, April 215 (cont.) Sabanci (3.2% weight): Petrobras (1.3% weight): Akbank (c4% of Sabanci NAV) OK 1Q15 results despite FX headwinds Summary: Akbank reported 1Q15 net earnings of TRY 785mil, -18% QoQ (+19% YoY) on good growth in trading (TRY 83m) and other income (TRY 274m) moderated by weaker core income with NII of TRY 1.87bn, down 2% QoQ (+8% YoY). NIM dropped 2bps QoQ on lower securities income and the company maintained its NIM guidance at 3.6%, up from 3.5% in FY14. Fee income of TRY 539m declined 9% (+3% YoY) and was below FY15 YoY guidance of 5-7%. Adjusted for the negative impact from regulatory costs, growth would have been 2% YoY. Management guided 13-15% RoE, lower than historical high-teens. Costs rose 6% QoQ (+21% YoY) to TRY1.7bn and NPL remained stable QoQ at 1.7% with guidance still at 2.% for FY15. Management noted that so far TRY depreciation has not had any significant FX loans asset quality impact. Corporate loans to medium sized businesses drove gross loans up 4% QoQ (2% YoY) and deposits grew 6% QoQ with L/D ratio improving to 19% vs 111% last quarter. Akbank retained a healthy 12.9% CET1 ratio despite the negative impact of TRY depreciation and the company maintains FY15 target of 14% CAR. Implications for investment case: Sabanci owns 4.8% of Akbank, Turkey s #3 bank with 11% market share. The current sentiment towards Turkish banks is negative and reflected in the low street expectations. Sabanci is a shrewd allocator of capital and Akbank remains the crown jewel, even though its weight in the asset portfolio is expected to decline over time. With RoE at 16% (excluding loss making energy), the underlying assets are attractively priced at book value, a 5-year low. Target price of TRY 14. is based on 2y forward P/B of 1.2x and 1% to fair value NAV, with a 4% upside. Petrobras (1.3% weight): 214 results out; sharp cuts in planned investments improve cash position Summary: Petrobras reported figures for full year, operating loss of BRL 21.3bn vs 34.3bn gain in 213. Included was impairment of projects of 44.6bn (mostly refining and petchem) and corruption impairment of overpayment of BRL 6.2bn. EPS ended at BRL /share vs +1.81(213). Gross profit was up 15%, total downstream loss was BRL 13bn ex write downs. Implications for Investment Case: Petrobras avoided debt default by publishing figures in April, debt window probably open now. Sharp cuts in planned investments (-37%) (214 BRL 82bn) and BRL 68.9bn in cash and securities end 214 makes the debt situation manageable, as the BRL 2bn cash burn from distribution etc. is eliminated at today s prices (USD 3.5 /brl, USD 63 brent/bbl) Strategic review due in 4-6 weeks. Negative market reaction post a good run probably due to postponement of dividend. 23

24 The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Hyundai Motor is the world's 4th largest car maker, including its 39% stake in Kia Motor. Sold 4.7m cars in 213 and has a ca. 5% global market share. Focus on smaller/less expensive cars. Strong position in several countries and in emerging markets such as India and China. Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics, with over 155, employees. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces appliances, cameras, printers, PCs and air-conditioning units. Great Wall Motor is a Chinese car manufacturer with sales of over 752, units in 213, up 24% YoY. It has a market share of more than 3.5% in China. Volume is divided between SUVs, sedans and pick-ups, where it is market leader. The cars are certified in the EU and Great Wall exports to 12 markets. It has its own engine and transmission production. Largest bank in India with 17% market share (ca. 25% including 5 associate banks). Also presence in life insurance, asset management and investment banking. 15, branches, 32, ATMs, 13 million customers and over 22, employees. Largest Indian overseas bank with 19 offices in 34 countries. Mahindra & Mahindra is the largest manufacturer of utility vehicles in India (5% market share) and tractors (4% market share). It has several listed subsidiaries including Tech Mahindra and M&M financial services (largest financier of UVs and tractors in India). 24

25 The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki (continued) Turkey s leading conglomerate in sectors including financial services, energy, cement, retail and industrials. The company has 1 companies currently listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and operates in 18 countries across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa and North and South America. Controlled by the Sabanci family. ABB is a leader in power and automation technologies that enable utility and industrial customers to improve performance while lowering environmental impact. The group operates in around 1 countries and employs 146, people. Approximately 5% of sales stem from emerging markets and this share is rapidly increasing. Bharti Airtel is India s largest private integrated telecom company, and it is a leading global player (#4) with operations in 2 countries across Asia and Africa. They had around 287m customers across their operations at the end of June 214. The towers business has been separated into a part-owned unit (passive infrastructure). Bharti family and SingTel own 3% each. Hungarian pharmaceutical company established in 191 with focus on CEE. Transitioning from generic-focused to more specialised through higher margin, innovative products within its women s health division (Esmya) and nervous system treatments (Cariprazine). Significant upside potential from US marketing approval of Cariprazine and extended usage of Esmya is not reflected in the current valuation at 3-4% discount to peers. South-African listed media and internet holding company incorporated in It has a strong Pay- TV business in South-Africa and Sub-Saharan African countries and a fast growing internet division focused on commerce, communities, content, communication and games. They hold a 34% stake in Chinese Tencent and 29% of Russian Mail.ru. 25

26 26 Additional information

27 April net equity flows to EM as % of AUM*, by region (as of April 24, 215) *Note: AUM at each week s start; over past 4 weeks. Source: EPFR, Samsung Securities. 27

28 China: Auto ad sales and marketing spending estimates 28

29 EPS Divergence: Japan vs. EM 29

30 April net equity flows to EM as % of AUM*, by region (Dec 24 April 215) 3

31 Cumulative performance in USD Dec 12 - April Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Emerging Markets Developed Markets Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research. 31

32 EM equity volatility MSCI EM Index 3-day implied volatility, as of April 3, Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research. 32

33 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.