SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport februar 2015

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1 SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport februar 2015

2 Hovedtrekk februar 2015 SKAGEN Vekst* var opp 0,9 prosent i februar, noe som er lavere enn fondets sammensatte nordiske/globale indeks som var opp 3,7 prosent. De største positive bidragsyterne i februar var Citigroup, ABB og Carlsberg. Største negative bidragsytere var Norwegian Air Shuttle, Norsk Hydro og Samsung. SKAGEN Vekst gjorde noen endringer i porteføljen og økte beholdningen i eksisterende posisjoner, bl.a. Carlsberg, FLS og Oriflame. Fondet reduserte også noen beholdninger, bl.a. i Q-Free (ut), Teva og Korean Re. SKAGEN Vekst topp 10 posisjoner har en vektet oppside på 30 prosent på nåværende verdier. Fondet har en interessant liste med kandidater, bevist av det faktum at fondets topp 35 selskaper er forventet å øke med 40 prosent de neste 2-3 årene gjennom stigende aksjekurs og utbyttebetaling. Porteføljen handles til 9,6x EPS 2015/2016 mot referanseindeksens 14x EPS 2015/2016. For 2015 og 2016 forventer vi at selskapene i porteføljen viser en årlig gjennomsnittlig inntjeningsvekst på 20 prosent, noe som tilsier at det er rom for positiv kursutvikling uavhengig av om verdsettelsesmultiplene øker eller ikke. * Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2

3 Generelle kommentarer for SKAGEN Vekst Svak start på året for SKAGEN Vekst Siden sommeren 2014 har SKAGEN Vekst gjort det svakere enn referanseindeksen. Dette er svarer ikke til våre forventninger og vi spør oss selv derfor om hva vi kan gjøre annerledes innenfor vårt rammeverk for verdiinvesteringer. Selskapene fondet har en verdsettelse som er lavere enn markedet generelt, og med en vekst- og lønnsomhetsprofil som er lik eller bedre enn markedet. Hva har så gått galt med den relative avkastningen? Våre selskaper har utviklet seg mer eller mindre som forventet, mens vi i referanseindeksen har sett selskaper som har hatt en betydelig raskere aksjekursstigning. De beste aksjene i vårt univers er selskaper med høy verdsettelse og som er populære innenfor den amerikanske teknologisektoren, dansk helsesektor og svenske/tyske industriselskaper. Fra et langsiktig perspektiv er det aldri fornuftig å investere når verdsettelsene er over 25x inntjening, som er tilfellet for mange av de beste selskapene de siste månedene. Spørsmålet er om dette vil fortsette? Sikkert er det at en P/E tett opp mot 20x inntjening for et industriselskap reduserer oppsiden for en rasjonell investor og innebærer en nedsiderisiko. Likevel kan det på kortere sikt gå høyere bare på grunn av flyten av penger fra passive investorer som ønsker eksponering mot Europa. Når vi fortsetter å vurdere våre topp 10 posisjoner, er vår overbevisning økt. Våre største posisjoner har gode forretningsmodeller, god gjennomføring av forretningsstrategier og gode verdier. Vekst og verdi aspektene vil mest sannsynligvis komme til syne når den europeiske økonomien bedrer seg, da de gradvis vil vise seg i salg av lastebiler, over supermarkedsdiskene, vekst i banklån og bedre bilsalg. Utvikling SKAGEN Vekst versus referanseindeksen siste 12 måneder (indeksert og i NOK) Kilde: Bloomberg, per 3. mars

4 Avkastning, februar 2015 A Februar Hittil i kv. Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst A 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 11,3% 13,1% 8,4% 9,0% 14,8% Referanseindeks** 3,7% 7,9% 7,9% 30,1% 21,0% 15,8% 11,2% 10,6% Relativ avkastning -2,8% -6,9% -6,9% -18,7% -7,9% -7,4% -2,2% 4,1% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 4

5 Årlig avkastning siden start* (%) SKAGEN Vekst* (NOK) Referanseindeks** (NOK) Hittil i år 2015 Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 5

6 Markedsutvikling i februar 2015 i NOK (%) Russland Østerrike Ungarn Mexico Italia Danmark USA (Nasdaq) Nederland Frankrike Spania Sverige Storbritannia Canada USA (S&P 500) Tyskland Finland MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Verdensindeksen Japan Norge Kina (Hong Kong) Sør-Afrika Taiwan Brasil Kina (lokal) Vekstmarkedsindeksen Sør-Korea SKAGEN Vekst A Thailand Hong Kong India Polen Indonesia Singapore Tyrkia

7 Største bidragsytere, februar 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK M illioner Selskap NOK M illioner Citigroup 33 ##### Norwegian Air Shuttle -110 ABB 29 ##### Norsk Hydro -25 Carlsberg 25 ##### Samsung Electronics -22 Sberbank of Russia 20 ##### AirAsia -11 Lundin Petroleum 19 ##### Solstad Offshore -10 Philips 18 ##### Nippon Seiki -8 Rec Silicon 16 ##### Kia Motors -7 Continental 15 ##### Bonheur -7 SAP 13 ##### Teva Pharmaceutical -4 SBI Holdings 12 ##### DOF -4 Total verdiskapning februar (NOK Mill): 84 Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 7

8 Største bidragsytere så langt i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK M illioner Selskap NOK M illioner Continental 64 6E+07 Norwegian Air Shuttle -67 Volvo 27 3E+07 Solstad Offshore -44 Carlsberg 22 2E+07 Kia Motors -35 Sberbank of Russia 21 2E+07 DOF -30 Norsk Hydro 19 2E+07 Siem Offshore -16 Nokian Renkaat 15 2E+07 Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding -12 Norwegian Finance 14 1E+07 Bonheur -9 Novo Nordisk 14 1E+07 Odfjell -9 Samsung Electronics 13 1E+07 AirAsia -7 Philips 13 1E+07 Nippon Seiki -6 Total verdiskapning YTD (NOK Mill): 99 Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 8

9 Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo februar 2015 SKAGEN Vekst har 52 prosent investert i de nordiske landene Postens Kurs P/E P/E P/E P/B Kurs- størrelse 2014e 2015e 2016e siste mål Samsung Electronics 7,6 % ,8 7,5 7,0 0,9 000,0 Norsk Hydro 7,3 % 44 33,7 12,5 11,0 1,2 57,5 Continental AG 5,6 % ,4 14,5 12,8 4,0 240,0 Teliasonera AB 4,9 % 53 13,2 13,2 12,9 2,1 70,0 Citigroup 4,5 % 52 11,4 9,0 7,6 0,8 75,0 Norwegian Air Shuttle 4,3 % ,6 7,5 6,1 3,9 340,0 Philips 4,1 % 27 17,8 17,8 15,7 2,2 33,0 ABB 3,9 % ,4 14,9 12,8 3,0 250,0 Danske Bank A/S 3,8 % ,1 11,2 10,6 1,2 205,0 SAP 3,4 % 63 22,5 19,9 18,2 3,9 75,0 Vektet topp 10 49,4 % 16,1 11,2 9,9 1,52 31% Vektet topp 35 86,6 % 13,6 11,0 9,2 1,28 40% Referanse indeks 16,8 15,1 13,6 2,12 9

10 Kjøp, februar 2015 Kjøp Carlsberg SKAGEN Vekst økte sin beholdning i det danske bryggeriselskapet Carlsberg i februar. Carlsberg er i gang med å restrukturere driften i Europa for å kunne redusere enhetskostnadene og optimalisere bryggeriinfrastrukturen. Vest Europa står for halvparten av Carlsberg sine totale driftsinntekter. Øst Europa/Russland representerer 36 prosent av driftsinntektene i 2013, og aksjen har svekket seg som følge av den svake rubelen. Presset på Carlsberg sin ledelse øker ettersom aksjen I flere år har dårligere utvikling enn konkurrentene og andre nordiske defensive aksjer. 10

11 Viktigste endringer så langt i 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Carlsberg SBI Holdings Toshiba Frontline 2012 Teliasonera Citigroup Oriflame Cosmetics ABB Golar LNG FLSmidth & Co Lundin Petroleum (Ny) Q1 Teva Pharmaceutical Kongsberg Gruppen Royal Unibrew Samsung Electronics Getinge Q-Free Stolt-Nielsen Korean Reinsurance Sparebanken Øst Norwegian Finance Holding (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) 11

12 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Asia ex Japan EMEA Japan Fond Indeks Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norden Andre Kontanter Denmark Sweden Norway Finland 6% 7% 24% 12% 1% 10% 24% 18% SKAGEN Vekst versus indeks indre sirkel er SKAGEN Vekst 12

13 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

14 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 Samsung Electronics (7.6%) A tad better than guidance with final dividend up 41% 4Q14 operating profit of KRW 5.29tr was slightly better than preliminary numbers of KRW 5.2bn. This is up 30% QoQ and down 36% YoY. EPS of KRW 35,530 rose from 28,050 in 3Q14 helped by a very low 5% tax rate (16% for FY14). Components (semi and display) made up 60% of operating profit versus 25% in 4Q13. As expected, the semi division profit improved with OP +19% QoQ to KRW 2.7tr (51% of profit) and a 25.3% margin, despite continuous losses from System LSI (should turn in 2015 with external client line-up). Handset division profit of KRW 1,960bn rose 12% QoQ. OPM rose by 40bp to 7.5% on cost containment and better mix (ASP +5% QoQ while shipment -6%). Keep in mind that the result likely still includes meaningful negative impact from inventory write down, which should now be a thing of the past. Underlying smartphone margin is likely c10%. Management stressed at the conference call that inventory management will have stronger focus ahead, hopefully reducing any drag from inventory clean-up. Semi guidance was upbeat and SEC expects to gain market share in 2015 due to lead in technology migration. FX headwind from weaker EUR and EM currencies were countered by tailwind for component sales (display and semi) which are all USD based. Final dividend per share was raised 41% to KRW 19,550. Dividend payout increased from 7% to 13% and including buy-back, shareholder return rose from 7% to 23%, which is the highest since 2007 (but below the peak of 50% for 2004). It represented 40% of FCF. With net cash of KRW 51tr (23% of market cap. and 32% of pref. share price) it has room to move higher. CAPEX for FY15 is expected to move up versus FY14 of KRW 22tr (1.3x depreciation). Investment case update Consensus for 2015 has ticked up somewhat lately but still points to marginal profit decline YoY, which we find too conservative given the impact of inventory clean-up in 2H14. Assuming a conservative 3 percentage point impact of this for 2H14, underlying profit was diluted by KRW 1.8tr or 8% of group profit for FY14. Price of pref. shares provides consumer electronics and mobile division for free based on quite conservative assumptions. 14

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 (cont.) Norsk Hydro (7.3%) Very impressive Q4 report Norsk Hydro reported underlying EBIT of NOK 2 886m vs NOK 1 490m in Q4-13. Higher realised aluminium prices, product premiums and alumina prices all had a significant positive impact on Q4 numbers together with a massive strengthening of the USD vs NOK and BRL. Reported EPS at NOK 0.83 vs consensus at NOK Bauxite & Alumina reported record results, EBIT NOK 528m. The division is helped by the strong USD vs BRL but the real driver of the performance is NHY s cost efficiency. In Primary, they have realised higher aluminium prices than expected as well as higher production. Operating cash flow was NOK4.4bn in Q4. NHY proposed dividend of NOK 1 (increase from NOK 0.75), and they also changed their dividend policy to 40% of net income over the cycle (from previous 30%). The dividend reflects operational performance, strong financial position (debt-free) and improved earnings outlook for NHY expects demand growth of 3-4% globally (ex China) for Norsk Hydro has decided to invest in the technology pilot (Karmøy) with 75k tons capacity. Total capex of NOK 3.9bn (includes ENOVA s support of NOK 1.5bn). Investment case update The aluminium market balance continues to tighten. LME inventories are down from 5.5mt to 4mt. Very limited new capacity coming on stream and healthy demand driven by car manufacturers will tighten the market further going forward. 15

16 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 (cont.) Norwegian Air Shuttle (4.3%) Weak Q4 numbers due to higher costs Norwegian reported weak Q4 numbers, with net profit negative at NOK 958m. FY 2015 EPS negative NOK 30. Q4 results hit by NOK 705m costs related to currency and market-to-market hedges, giving clean EBITDA of NOK -230m. Unit cost (CASK) increased by 3% YoY to NOK The increase is explained by currency (6pp) and one-offs (4pp), hence NAS says underlying CASK was down 7% YoY. Looking into the one-offs, there seems to be close to NOK 100m related to reorganisation, higher marketing spending and the reward program. Ancillary revenues at NOK 119 per passenger (which is flat QoQ) is now 14% of group revenue. Norwegian guides unit cost target in the range of NOK , and reiterates guidance of 5% production growth (ASK). They see bookings for 2015 ahead of last year, and a stable market in the Nordics but tough competition in continental Europe related to new capacity. Positive momentum for long-haul in UK. The company estimates NOK 2bn lower fuel costs for Investment case update Long-haul operations continue to hurt earnings in Norwegian. Regularity is improving, and yield will hopefully increase when the long-haul operation stabilises. Overall, unit costs ex fuel will be slightly higher in 2015, and the big question is have they lost their focus on costs? We do not think so and believe that Norwegian will be able to retain a very competitive cost level going forward. Lower losses on long-haul, lower fuel price (savings of NOK 2bn vs 2014) and higher ticket prices in the Nordics will be the drivers for better earnings. With capacity growth coming down to 5% (incl. long-haul) vs. 41% in the last four quarters, the yield development will be a positive surprise. 16

17 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 (cont.) ABB (3.9%) Weak order intake but good progress with cost cutting. EPS +30% YoY Order intake: USD 9.4bn (+1% YoY LFL), 4% below consensus estimates, largely due to the lumpy, and low margin power systems. Base orders (the backbone of the business) increased 4% YoY LFL which is good given current environment. Revenue: USD 10.3bn (-1% YoY LFL), 3% below consensus and book to bill 0.91x. Service revenues share of total was 17%. EBIT: USD 1049m +27% YoY (1% higher than consensus). Net debt dropped below USD 1bn (USD 923m) due to strong cash flow of USD 1.7bn (USD 2.9bn FY14 p/ FCF 15x trailing). Outlook: Although ABB recognises that the low price will have a dampening effect on upstream oil/gas activities, it maintains it long-term target of growing top line 4-7% p.a while cutting costs which will translate into EPS growth of 10-15% (excl. buy backs). Propose a dividend of CHF 0.72/share (4% yield). The company has only used USD 730m of its announced USD 4bn share buyback program (7% of outstanding shares remain to be bought). Investment case update There is long-term structural demand for ABB products driven by energy efficiency, automation, urbanisation and a move towards more renewable energy. We thus believe that growth will be higher than the general economy. Apart from this our case in ABB rests on 1) increased focus in the offering (ABB to focus on products in which they have a leading position which supports pricing) followed by 2) cost cutting by reducing manufacturing footprint (with fewer products there is less need for factories) and 3) increasing service revenues (ABB currently has a massive installed base in the market which is untapped in terms of services). All these things combined have the potential to lift ROE above 20%. 17

18 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 (cont.) Danske Bank (3.8%) 4Q 2014 in line with expectations, shareholder remuneration much better than expected. Total income grew 3% in 4Q 2014, which was slightly slower than previous quarters as the full year growth was 10%. The big mover was trading which only provided 10% of income vs. 20% normally, but on the other hand the income from insurance business contributed 10% vs. 5% normally. Fees and other income grew 12%. Costs rose 10% and included restructuring charges as 800 employees left the bank during the year. 4Q 2014 might be neutral, but it was cost loaded to clean up going into Loan losses were 18bp of the loan book for the year, so things are returning to normal and the noncore unit lost DKK 1.5bn for the year as expected. Dividend was set at DKK 5.5 per share in addition to DKK 5bn stock buyback in Denmark, shares are cancelled and not given to executives a few quarters later as we see in the US guidance of at least DKK 14bn net income is a tad short of the DKK 15-16bn expected, so the first quarters of 2015 will show how much low balling goes into that guidance. The 2018 guidance for at least 12.5% ROE is good news and shows they are minded to trim costs, nurse income streams and run a tight capital discipline. Investment case update The stock has a 66% upside if Danske Bank delivers on their 2018 target for the stock including shareholder repatriation (dividends and stock buybacks). 18

19 Key earnings releases and corporate news, February 2015 (cont.) Volvo (2.7%) Good progress within trucks; construction equipment drove into the ditch Sales: SEK 77.5bn (-4% YoY LFL), in line with consensus. Volvo got orders for 61,222 trucks which appears to be c. 7% higher than consensus. Organic sales growth: Trucks -2% and construction equipment -13%. EBIT adjusted for SEK 3,790m EU fine and SEK 660m construction equipment credit losses: SEK 3.021m (18% below consensus). Somewhat better than expected within trucks. Main deviation relates to construction equipment where the company is behind plan as volumes collapsed. Company currently addressing this by cutting production. Currency had a positive impact of SEK 373m to ebit. Net debt excluding leases dropped to SEK 26.4bn (38% of equity) due to good cash flow of SEK 5.6bn in Q4. Outlook: Company expects 2% truck volume growth 2015/2016 but reduce outlook for trucks somewhat (increase in NA offset by weak SA markets). As expected construction equipment weak (PW from peers last couple of weeks) which the company is addressing by cutting production. Propose a dividend of SEK 3/share (c. 3% yield). Investment case update Volvo shipped 9% less trucks in Q414 vs. Q413 and organic sales fell 2% adjusted for currency. Lower sales on a relatively high fixed cost base is never a good mix but the truck margin improved 30bpp to 6% as cost cutting filtered through to bottom line. Weak numbers in construction equipment should not come as a surprise and the company will not build huge inventories as manufacturing is cut. However, it will take some time to turn construction equipment around. The recent share price appreciation implies that the cost cutting benefits are more or less discounted, so upside from current levels depends on volume growth. 19

20 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is becoming. stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October

21 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst continued Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. Philips NV is a global leader in medical systems (scanners), consumer appliances and lighting. Philips historic focus has been on long-lasting light bulbs, but over the years the group has divested of light bulbs and introduced many other activities in its portfolio. Philips also has a clear set of financial priorities as to how to manage the group. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. SAP makes corporate software and sells software and consultancy services in licence form. Historical growth 15%, forward growth estimate is 8-10%. Cost structure: COGS EUR 5bn, R&D EUR 2.2bn, SG&A EUR 4bn. SAP is in a unique market position, prepared for the next big move in corporate customer-oriented interactions. 21

22 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.