SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport mai 2015

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1 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Statusrapport mai 2015

2 Hovedtrekk mai 2015 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki* var opp 1,1 prosent i mai, mens MSCI Emerging Markets Index var ned 0,4 prosent i samme periode. Våre beste bidragsytere i mai var Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel og Golar LNG. Golar, et ledende selskap med eiere og operatører av LNG skip, annonserte en lovende avtale med Ophir Energy tidlig i mai. Avtalen er strukturert som en 20 års kontakt for FLNG skipet Gimi, med forventet start av kommersiell drift i Vi mener at verdien av kontrakten alene står for en vesentlig del av Golars totale verdi, og at selskapet dermed fortsatt er attraktivt priset. Våre svakeste bidragsytere i mai var Great Wall Motor, Banrisul og LG Electronics. Den brasilianske banken, Banrisul, rapporterte svak inntjening for 1. kvartal 2015, som følge av betydelig økning i avsetninger. Verdsettelse av P/B 0,7x er nå på sitt laveste nivå siden finanskrisen. Vi justerte vår Hyundai Motor inntjening og kursmål ned som følge av svake salgstall i mai. SKAGEN Kon-Tiki solgte seg ut av flere selskaper i mai. Harbin Electric og Skyworth nådde sine respektive kursmål etter sterk utvikling hittil i år, mens Siem Offshore og Yingli Green Energy ble solgt som følge av uønsket utvikling i forhold til våre investeringscase for selskapene. Vi gikk inn i en posisjon i Sberbanks preferanseaksjer etter at en endring i indeks utløste tvangssalg av aksjen og historisk høy rabatt mot de ordinære aksjene. Preferanseaksjene handles til P/B 0,5x, en lav absolutt og relativ verdsettelse. Vekstmarkedene handles nå til rabatt mot de utviklede markedene, med en P/E på 13x og P/B på 1,6x for vekstmarkedene sammenlignet med P/E på 19x og P/B på 2,3x for de utviklede markedene. Fondets portefølje er verdsatt til P/E 2015e på 9x og P/B på 1,2x, en betydelig rabatt i forhold til indeksens 13x og 1,6x. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstallene for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og er etter fradrag for gebyrer. 2

3 A Avkastning, mai 2015 A Mai QTD Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Kon Tiki A 1,1% 0,6% 6,8% 15,7% 14,9% 8,5% 13,6% 16,4% MSCI EM Index -0,4% 0,1% 10,1% 30,4% 15,1% 8,0% 10,9% 10,0% Relativ avkastning 1,5% 0,5% -3,3% -14,7% -0,2% 0,4% 2,8% 6,5% Note: Alle avkastningstall utover 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 5. april

4 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki har slått indeks i 11 av 13 år (%) 103 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A* (NOK) MSCI EM Index (NOK) Hittil i år Note: Alle tall i NOK, etter gebyrer * Startdato: 5. april

5 Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene i mai 2015 (i NOK) Kina (lokal) India Egypt USA Indonesia Industrialiserte markeder Mexico Tyrkia Nigeria Vietnam Ghana Pakistan Taiwan Kina (Internasjonal) Hong Kong SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A Tsjekkia Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Sør Korea Singapore Ungarn Russland Malaysia Sør Afrika Polen Kenya Colombia Brasil Argentina Brasil

6 Utviklingen i vekstmarkedene hittil i 2015 (i NOK) Kina (lokal) Ungarn Russland Argentina Kina (Internasjonal) Hong Kong Sør Korea Taiwan Filippinene Vekstmarkedsindeksen Industrialiserte markeder Pakistan Chile Vietnam USA SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A Sør Afrika India Singapore Tsjekkia Polen Thailand Mexico Malaysia Indonesia Nigeria Egypt Kenya Brasil Tyrkia Ghana

7 Akkumulert nettoflyt til store regionale/land fond (USD mrd) per 27. mai

8 Vekstmarkedene versus utviklede markeder innkjøpssjefenes indeks Ved utgangen av mai

9 P/E for vekstmarkedene rabatt mot utviklede markeder Januar 1995 mai 2015 Vekstmarkedene P/E Utviklede markeder P/E Hist. gj.snitt 21 Hist. gj.snitt Kilde: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.

10 P/B for vekstmarkedene rabatt mot utviklede markeder Januar 1995 mai 2015 Vekstmarkedene P/B Utviklede markeder P/B 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 Hist. gj.snitt 2,4 Hist. gj.snitt 1,5 0, Kilde: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research.

11 Største bidragsytere mai 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Mahindra & Mahindra 223 ##### Great Wall Motor -208 Bharti Airtel 199 ##### Banrisul -66 Golar LNG 145 ##### LG Electronics -63 State Bank of India 131 ##### Cosan -55 ABB 107 ##### Cia Brasileira (CBD) -54 Sabanci Holding 96 ##### Tech Mahindra -54 UPL 95 ##### Hyundai Motor -47 SBI Holdings 87 ##### GCL-Poly Energy -46 Shiseido 72 ##### Samsung Electronics -44 Apollo Tyres 32 ##### DRB-Hicom -41 Total verdiskapning i mai 2015: NOK 513 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 11

12 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2. kvartal 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Value Partners 146 1E+08 Samsung Electronics -241 Golar LNG 144 1E+08 Great Wall Motor -173 X5 Retail 139 1E+08 Tech Mahindra -118 Richter Gedeon Nyrt 137 1E+08 AP Moeller - Maersk -99 Petrobras 130 1E+08 Indosat Tbk -88 Tullow Oil 115 1E+08 Naspers -75 SBI Holdings 111 1E+08 Banrisul -72 UPL 108 1E+08 DRB-Hicom -69 Lenovo Group 103 1E+08 Bidvest Group -62 Moscow Exchange 90 9E+07 LG Electronics -57 Totalverdiskapning hittil i 2. kvartal 2015: NOK 579 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 12

13 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Great Wall Motor 579 # Banrisul -341 Bharti Airtel 398 # Hyundai Motor -276 X5 Retail 301 # Marfrig Global Foods -236 Lenovo Group 292 # Vale -168 UPL 272 # State Bank of India -144 Samsung Electronics 257 # Sabanci Holding -129 SBI Holdings 242 # AirAsia -126 Richter Gedeon Nyrt 222 # Aveng -121 Shiseido 212 # Cosan -120 AP Moeller - Maersk 212 # Hindalco Industries -86 Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015: NOK 3681 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 13

14 Kjøp og salg, mai 2015 Kjøp Salg Sberbank preferanseaksjer (ny) Selskapet er best i klassen blant russiske banker og kan dra nytte av avtagende inflasjon og stabilisering av den russiske økonomien. Vi kjøpte preferanseaksjer da indeksfond ble tvunget til å selge som et resultat av at MSCI indeksen ekskluderte aksjen og preferanseaksjen handles til en historisk rabatt mot ordinære aksjer. Harbin Electric (ut) Aksjen har steget med 42 prosent hittil i år og nådde vårt kursmål. Skyworth (ut) Aksjen har steget med 83 prosent hittil i år og nådde vårt kursmål. Siem Offshore (ut) Svake markedsutsikter med utnyttelsesrater på 60 prosent og fallende med kapasitetsøkning som følge av nye skip. Yingli Green Energy (ut) Kraftig svekkelse av balansen gjorde at vi gikk ut av posisjonen. 14

15 Viktigste endringer i 2. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Value Partners (Ut) KIWOOM Securities (Ut) Q2 Sberbank Pref Sabanci CBD Moscow Exchange Hyundai Motor (Ny) Q2 Exxaro Resources Avance Gas Harbin Skyworth Siem Offshore Yingli AP Moeller - Maersk (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) Great Wall Motor Lenovo Group AP Moeller - Maersk Great Wall Motor Raiffeisen Bank Shiseido 15

16 Viktigste endringer i 1. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Petroleo Brasileiro Cia Brasileira (CBD) Hitachi Sabanci Banrisul Vale Euronav Hindalco Knightsbridge Shipping Cosan Golar LNG (Ny) (Ny) Q1 Heineken OCI NV Rocket Internet UIE Afren Exxaro Resources Kiwoom Securities Value Partners Avance Gas Great Wall Motor Bharti Airtel DIA Casino AP Moeller - Maersk Familymart Tech Mahindra Sistema Samsung Electronics Massmart Apollo Tyres Yingli Green Energy Harbin Electric Lenovo Group Mahindra & Mahindra (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) 16

17 Største poster i SKAGEN Kon-Tiki, mai 2015 Postens Kurs P/E P/E P/BV Div. yield Kurs Oppside størrelse, % e last 2014 (%) mål % Hyundai Motor 8, ,2 4,5 0,5 2, Samsung Electronics 8, ,0 6,5 1,0 1, State Bank of India 4, ,2 8,4 1,3 1, Mahindra & Mahindra 3, ,7 12,6 2,9 1, Great Wall Motor 3,6 50,1 15,1 10,3 3,9 2, Sabanci Holding 3,5 10,0 9,8 8,3 1,0 1, Bharti Airtel 3, ,8 21,3 2,7 0, ABB 3, ,5 15,6 3,1 2, Richter Gedeon 2, ,5 16,6 1,5 0, Naspers 2, ,2 35,8 9,4 0, SBI Holdings 1, ,4 13,7 1,0 2, Hitachi 1, ,0 10,0 1,4 1, Vektet topp 12 46,5 9,4 8,4 1,1 1,6 46 Vektet topp 35 74,9 11,6 8,8 1,2 1,9 47 Vekstmarkedsindeksen 13,1 12,5 1,6 2,7 Topp kursmål 17,5 13,1 1,9 1,3 17

18 SKAGEN Kon-Tiki er verdsatt med en betydelig rabatt mot vekstmarkedene til tross for en høyere vekt i «dyre» sektorer og lav vekt i «billige» sektorer ,6 13,1 12,5 10 8, ,2 1,6 0 P/E +1y P/E +2y P/BV Kon-Tiki MSCI EM Index Note: Verdsettelsesestimater er basert på SKAGEN Kon-Tikis uavhengige analyse og kan variere fra konsensusestimatene. 18

19 P/B for SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene 4 3,5 3 P/B SKAGEN Kon-Tiki P/B MSCI EM Index 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Per 31. mai

20 P/E SKAGEN Kon-Tiki versus vekstmarkedene 18,0 16,0 14,0 P/E SKAGEN Kon-Tiki P/E MSCI EM Index 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 - Per 31. mai

21 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Fond Indeks Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Asia DM Asia EM Europe DM ex. The Nordics Europe EM Frontier Markets Latin America Middle East & Africa North America The Nordics Kontanter

22 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

23 Key earnings releases and corporate news, May 2015 State Bank of India (4.1% weight): Hitachi (1.9% weight): Q415 results beat expectations on all fronts just in time for capital raise Implications for Investment Case: Positive. This was an opportunity to shine before the USD 2.5bn capital increase, and SBI did not disappoint. However, investors were clearly confused by the various one-offs, sending the shares up 5%, then ending the trading session down 2.7%. Our investment case is built on improving credit quality and cost structure, while the market is more focused on achieving 13-14% growth in The next couple of quarters should give a good indication on costs and asset quality in the absence of restructuring. We see a 60% upside to current valuation at 1.2x P/B and 9.9x FY16 P/E. At target price INR 450 per share, P/E would be in line with the other three largest Indian banks. Summary: SBI reported net earnings of INR 37.4bn, up 23% YoY on strong NII at INR 147bn, up 14% YoY and non-interest income of INR 85.1bn, up 29% YoY. Opex of INR 108.1bn rose 22% YoY on pension provisioning. Non-performing assets were INR 567bn (-9% QoQ, -8% YoY). This included a sale of INR 45bn NPAs to asset reconstruction companies at a INR 21bn haircut, amortised over 2 years. Gross slippages, i.e. loans downgraded to non-performing, were INR 48bn at the low end of estimates. As anticipated, the bank reported an INR 119bn restructuring of loans which was at the high end, as this was the last quarter for restructuring. Q4FY15 back on track with good upside in FY16 guidance Implications for Investment Case: A welcome result after a setback in Q3FY15. Hitachi is working its way towards its mid-term targets with the longer term target of reaching a 10% operating margin. Looking through its business mix versus peers, this should be well within reach with key drivers being 1) cost reductions and 2) mix improvements to higher margin products. The margin expansion is the core of our investment case. Based on guidance for FY16, EPS is JPY 64 but with a more realistic assumption for HQ costs, EPS of JPY 74 looks reasonable. Hence, Hitachi trades at a P/E of 11.4x for FY16 (ending March) which is well below DM capital goods sector at 17x and its closest peers at between 15-20x. Our target price of JPY 1200 (+40% upside) is based on EPS of 100 for FY18 and a P/E of 10x with an assumption of c8.5% operating margin and RoE of 11%, which still leaves plenty of upside potential for improvements. Summary: Q4FY15 operating profit of JPY 278bn was up 17% YoY on sales of JPY 2,943bn which was up 4% YoY. The result was JPY 20bn above guidance and market expectations, partly due to reclassification of loss making thermal power operations. Hence, operating margin up to historical high. Net profit of JPY 241bn (EPS JPY 51) was down 9% YoY, hurt by losses from discontinued operations. For FY16, management guides for operating profit of JPY 680bn which is conservative, in our opinion. However, it is comforting to hear that management puts stronger emphasis on dividend and RoE with new targets likely to be introduced. 23

24 Key earnings releases and corporate news, May 2015 (cont.) Lenovo (1.4% weight): AirAsia (1.1% weight): Mixed results, as expected. PC still strong, but all eyes on recent acquisitions Implications for investment case: Going forward, the key questions are: i) Can they take further market share in PC, and will it be enough to offset overall market declines? ii) Can they turn mobile into a decent profit centre and how long will it take? iii) When will margins in the Americas (currently +/- 0) approach levels achieved in other regions? We believe they are likely to succeed long term, but that the road to profitability in mobile can be longer with no home advantage in China. Current market cap is USD 19bn vs. near-term earnings power of USD 1.5bn in PCs alone. Today s market price corresponds to a conservative 10x multiple on the core PC segment, at-cost valuation of acquired businesses, and zero value ascribed to the legacy Lenovo smartphone and tablet businesses. Summary: Q4FY15 revenue +21% YoY to USD 11.3bn, and pre-tax income -51% to USD 104m, as the effects of recent Motorola and System X acquisitions kick in. If we exclude non-cash M&A related charges, pre-tax income would have been down a more moderate 7% YoY to 198m. PC shipments increased 2.7% YoY (vs. market -7%), but revenue fell 8% on lower ASPs. Lenovo lost some market share QoQ, but gained 1.8 ppt YoY. PC margins were very solid, smartphone shipments were roughly flat YoY, with revenue +13%. System X revenue continued to stabilise, but still experienced market share loss. Management acknowledged irrational smartphone competition and currency movements, but reiterated its commitment to Motorola breaking even 4-6 quarters after close and a profitable System X late this year. Q115 results soft as expected but better times ahead Implications for Investment Case: Neutral numbers, but since it seems we are through the worst, the focus might now shift to upside opportunities, hence a positive catalyst in itself. The earnings momentum could now be at an inflection point due to 1) MAS restructuring to stem losses leading to a slightly more benign competitive environment in Malaysia 2) cheaper oil prices will be more apparent going forward 3) MYR weakness less impact 4) potential recovery of associates and 5) ancillary revenues moving in the right direction and 6) less worry about associate drag. Also, management has reiterated that it is looking to exit non-airline businesses. The share price has fallen around 30% from its recent peak in Dec 2014 and we are trading at attractive valuations at 7x P/E 16e and 1.1x P/B. Summary: Preliminary Q115 operating statistics had already been reported with a 76.9% load factor (-150bps YoY) following the QZ8501 accident and subsequent halt in marketing initiatives. This led to flat revenue development YoY and operating lease income growth and ancillary sales up 5% YoY. They reported a net profit of MYR149m, which was +7%. Some bright spots were 1) Thai AirAsia loads are improving due to influx of Chinese tourists into Thailand 2) AirAsia Philippines load factor improvement while Indonesia, India and Japan (together with the Philippines) remained lossmaking. Group sales so far in 2Q15 have been good (+18% YoY). 24

25 The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki Hyundai Motor is the world's 4th largest car maker, including their 39% stake in Kia Motor. Sold 4.7m cars in 2013 and has a ca. 5% global market share. Focus on smaller/less expensive cars. Strong position in several countries and in emerging markets such as India and China. Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics, with over 155,000 employees. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces appliances, cameras, printers, PCs and air-conditioning units. Largest bank in India with 17% market share (ca. 25% including 5 associate banks). Also presence in life insurance, asset management and investment banking. 15,000 branches, 32,000 ATMs, 130 million customers and over 220,000 employees. Largest Indian overseas bank with 190 offices in 34 countries. Mahindra & Mahindra is the largest manufacturer of utility vehicles in India (50% market share) and tractors (40% market share). It has several listed subsidiaries including Tech Mahindra and M&M financial services (largest financier of UVs and tractors in India). Great Wall Motor is a Chinese car manufacturer with sales of over 752,000 units in 2013, up 24% YoY. It has a market share of more than 3.5% in China. Volume is divided between SUVs, sedans and pick-ups, where it is market leader. The cars are certified in the EU and Great Wall exports to 120 markets. It has its own engine and transmission production. 25

26 The largest companies in SKAGEN Kon-Tiki (continued) Turkey s leading conglomerate in sectors including financial services, energy, cement, retail and industrials. The company has 10 companies currently listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and operates in 18 countries across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North Africa and North and South America. Controlled by the Sabanci family. Bharti Airtel is India s largest private integrated telecom company and a leading global player (#4) with operations in 20 countries across Asia and Africa. They had around 287m customers across their operations at the end of June They separated out the towers business into a part-owned unit (passive infrastructure). Bharti family and SingTel own 30% each. ABB is a leader in power and automation technologies that enable utility and industrial customers to improve performance while lowering environmental impact. The group operates in around 100 countries and employs 146,000 people. Approximately 50% of sales stem from emerging markets and this share is rapidly increasing. Hungarian pharmaceutical company established in 1901 with focus on CEE. Transitioning from generic-focused to more specialized through higher margin, innovative products within its women s health division (Esmya) and nervous system treatments (Cariprazine). Significant upside potential from US marketing approval of Cariprazine and extended usage of Esmya is not reflected in the current valuation at 30-40% discount to peers. South-African listed media and internet holding company incorporated in They have a strong Pay-TV business in South-Africa and Sub-Saharan African countries and a fast growing internet division focused on commerce, communities, content, communication and games. They hold a 34% stake in Chinese Tencent and 29% of Russian Mail.ru. 26

27 27 Additional information

28 April net equity flows to EM as % of AUM*, by region (as of May 27, 2015) *Note: AUM at each week s start; over past 4 weeks. Source: EPFR, Samsung Securities. 28

29 China: Meltdown in interest rates = meltup in equity multiples 29 Source: BCA

30 Labour force participation rates 30

31 EM: 5-Year credit default swap rates 31

32 Cumulative performance in USD Dec 12 - May Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Emerging Markets Developed Markets Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research. 32

33 EM equity volatility MSCI EM Index 30-day implied volatility, as of May 29, Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg, SKAGEN research. 33

34 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Kon-Tiki A på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.