ODIN Norden Fondskommentar oktober 2015
Fondets portefølje
ODIN Norden - oktober 2015 Avkastning siste måned og hittil i år Fondet leverte siste måned en avkastning på 6,2 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning var 4,2 prosent. Hittil i år er fondets avkastning 25,7 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning er 16,8 prosent hittil i år. Kjøp og salg siste måned og hittil i år Siste måned har vi solgt DSV og kjøpt Hexagon. Hittil i år er de største endringene kjøp av Hexagon, Marine Harvest og Sweco, samt salg av DSV, Subsea 7, Amer Sports og Telenor. Bidragsytere siste måned og hittil i år De beste bidragsyterne siste måned var Autoliv, Huhtamaki og Yara. De svakeste bidragsytere siste måned var Handelsbanken, DNB og Novo Nordisk. Hittil i år er de beste bidragsyterne Novo Nordisk, Huhtamaki og Protector Forsikring. De svakeste bidragsyterne hittil i år er Sparebank 1 SMN, Metso og DNB.
ODIN Norden - oktober 2015 Prising av fondet Fondet prises til 16,0 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Fondet gir en forventet direkteavkastning på 3,4 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises fondet til 2,6 ganger. Selskapene i fondet har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 15,2 prosent. Prising av det nordiske aksjemarkedet - VINXBCAPNOKNI Markedet prises til 16,2 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater. Markedet gir en direkteavkastning på 3,6 prosent. Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises markedet til 2,3 ganger. Selskapene i referanseindeksen har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 13,3 prosent. Makroøkonomi OECDs ledende indikatorer viser nå en endringstakt på trend for økonomiene i området de seneste månedene.
Nøkkeltall og nyheter fra porteføljen - presentert på engelsk
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (NOK) ODIN Norden Index Historical Return % (NOK)* Last Month YTD 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Since inception Portfolio 6,22 25,69 34,83 25,39 11,62 7,37 12,87 Benchmark 4,21 16,80 24,97 25,94 14,33 10,57 10,00 Exess Return 2,00 8,89 9,86-0,55-2,71-3,20 2,88 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Up or down In or out ODIN Norden Significant Portfolio changes year to date Number of changes in portfolio year to date 1 1 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-1 -2-1 Buy Sell Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 + - + - + - + - Marine Harvest Subsea 7 Sweco Amer Sports Hexagon DSV Telenor DNB Marine Harvest Intrum Justitia Autoliv Nordea Amer Sports Metso Carlsberg Kongsberg Gruppen Marine Harvest ABB H&M Sparebank 1 SMN Novo Nordisk Protector Sweco Carlsberg Sparebank 1 SMN Kongsberg Gruppen Yara Huhtamaki Assa Abloy Indutrade Intrum Justitia Huhtamaki
Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Novo Nordisk A/S Class B 7,4% Denmark Pharmaceuticals 28,2 23,7 1,7 2,0 20,7 73,3 Autoliv Inc Shs Swedish DR 6,2% Sweden Auto Components 19,6 16,9 1,8 2,0 3,1 15,8 Hennes & Mauritz AB Class B 5,2% Sweden Specialty Retail 25,8 23,7 3,0 3,2 9,8 37,8 Atlas Copco AB Class B 4,3% Sweden Machinery 17,8 17,0 3,6 3,2 5,0 28,3 Marine Harvest ASA 4,2% Norway Food Products 20,1 13,8 5,0 5,6 2,9 14,3 Huhtamaki Oyj 4,1% Finland Containers & Packaging 20,4 17,8 2,2 2,5 3,6 17,4 Sampo Oyj Class A 4,1% Finland Insurance 15,3 15,4 4,7 5,1 2,2 14,1 Yara International ASA 4,0% Norway Chemicals 10,8 10,9 3,6 3,8 1,5 13,9 ABB Ltd. 3,7% Sweden Electrical Equipment 18,4 16,5 3,9 4,1 2,9 15,6 Intrum Justitia AB 3,6% Sweden Commercial Services & Supplies 19,5 18,6 2,6 2,9 7,0 35,9 Topp 10 46,8% 19,0 17,1 3,0 3,3 3,7 19,3 ODIN Norden 16,9 16,0 3,2 3,4 2,6 15,2 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
Sector allocation
Sector performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio)
Current holdings
Share price performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.
Contribution, year to date
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Portfolio Index Active share 0,63 Sharpe ratio 1) 2,41 Standard Deviation 2) 9,93 2,64 9,28 Portfolio Alpha -0,59 Beta 1,01 Tracking error 3,37 Information ratio -0,16 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast
DSV - Sold due to valuation Friday Oct 9, DSV announced public tender offer for UTI Worldwide. This is still subject to regulatory approval and consent from UTI shareholders. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2016. 300 250 200 150 100 Performance - last 5 years DSV and UTI complement each other both in terms of business activities and geography. Currently, UTI operates with EBITDA close to zero and slightly negative EBIT. DSV s target is to bring the UTI EBIT margin to the current group level of 5.5% in 2-3 years time by realizing synergies. Although we like both DSV as a company and the acquisition of UTI, we sold our position in DSV in October. This was solely due to valuation. The share have given us a total return of almost 50% YTD, and most of this came as re-pricing. At the current price level we see limited upside potential in the share, even including the potential synergies from the UTI acquisition.. 50 DSV A/S 0 nov.10 nov.11 nov.12 nov.13 nov.14 nov.15 DSV A/S OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Trucking Market Value (mill.) 49,140 Price 280.80 Price currency DKK Net debt (mill.) 5,859 Reporting currency DKK Enterprise Value (mill.) 54,999 FX rate (NOK) 1.26 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 42,562 43,710 44,912 45,710 48,582 51,255 53,369 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 2,164 2,410 2,508 2,496 2,626 3,050 3,258 Net Income (mill.) 1,184 1,440 1,427 1,577 1,490 2,047 2,219 Price/Earnings 26.6 14.9 20.0 20.2 22.3 23.1 20.6 Price/Book Value 4.0 3.5 4.9 5.3 5.2 7.6 5.8 EV/EBIT 14.6 11.2 13.3 15.1 14.7 18.0 16.7 Return on Equity (%) 19.7 24.3 26.9 27.3 24.3 32.8 28.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7
Hexagon - New portfolio holding Growth in a low growth environment is rare. Therefore, we have invested in Hexagon during the stock market correction this autumn. Hexagon has a proven business model with yearly organic growth of around 7 percent for measurement technology last 10 years. In addition to this they have done successful acquisitions and expanded their product mix to more software and recurring business. Since 2014 they have done 10 bigger acquisitions with the majority in the software segment. We think M&A could continue they have a stellar track record of paying reasonable multiples and extracting both cost and sales synergies. Due to increased software content the company margins have expanded over the years and we are now looking for 25 percent EBIT by the year 2016. What s intriguing with Hexagon is that they re constantly developing new technologies to expand their addressable market, and their core businesses still have some way to go in terms of penetration. Its hard to buy this quality company at screamingly low valuation. But after the recent downturn we found the price reasonable. 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 nov.10 nov.11 nov.12 nov.13 nov.14 nov.15 Hexagon AB Class B Hexagon AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Information Technology Services Market Value (mill.) 106,815 Price 310.30 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 17,072 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill.) 123,888 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,478 2,169 2,380 2,430 2,622 3,050 3,204 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 271 420 476 501 564 685 752 Net Income (mill.) 90 295 354 368 403 498 573 Price/Earnings 24.7 26.1 24.4 30.7 25.6 22.6 20.6 Price/Book Value 3.3 1.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.8 EV/EBIT 23.2 13.7 17.2 19.6 20.2 19.8 17.5 Return on Equity (%) 5.4 12.7 13.4 13.0 12.7 13.6 13.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4
Securitas - Strenghtens its technology offering 250 Performance - last 5 years In October, Securitas announced that it agrees to acquire Diebold s North American Electronic Security business. This business, based in Green, Ohio, USA, is the third largest commercial electronic security provider in North America. For more than 70 years, Diebold s North American Electronic Security business has brought together technology innovations, security expertise and quality services to become a leading provider of comprehensive electronic security solutions and services to business customers. Today the operation delivers a full spectrum of capabilities including design, build, integration, installation, monitoring and service. The acquisition supports Securitas long-term strategy to increase their technology content. The acquired business has approximately 1100 employees. The operation includes more than 55 000 monitored customer locations and 200 000 sites serviced. The 12-month sales, from June 30, 2014 through June 30, 2015, amounted to MSEK 2 760. The purchase price is approximately MSEK 2 900 (which according to Securitas' calculations equates to approximately 11x estimated EBITDA for 2015). Furthermore, Securitas delivered strong Q3 numbers, where technology grew significantly. 200 150 100 50 0 nov.10 Securitas nov.11 AB Class Bnov.12 OMX nov.13 VINX Benchmark nov.14 Capped TR nov.15 Securitas AB Class B Miscellaneous Commercial Services Market Value (mill.) 42,237 Price 121.40 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 10,856 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 53,093 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 61,340 64,057 66,458 65,700 70,217 80,681 86,488 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 3,548 3,095 2,798 3,037 3,230 3,830 4,173 Net Income (mill.) 2,083 1,736 1,201 1,853 2,068 2,475 2,685 Price/Earnings 13.6 11.8 12.9 17.4 17.9 16.9 15.7 Price/Book Value 3.5 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.2 EV/EBIT 10.5 10.4 11.0 11.4 14.0 14.3 13.5 Return on Equity (%) 23.5 19.1 13.5 20.6 20.0 21.2 20.3 Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 5.1 5.3 4.4 3.2 2.8 3.1
SCA - Strengthens its position in North America 300 250 Performance - last 5 years In October, SCA announced that it is acquiring Wausau Paper Corp, a North American Away-from-Home tissue company. Wausau Paper s product portfolio complements SCA s offerings in North America and gives it access to premium tissue in the region. The acquisition is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, and is expected to close during Q1 2016. If approved, SCA will increase its market share on the North American Away-from- Home Tissue market from 19 to 26 percent. Thereby, becoming the second largest player on this market. Wausau Paper s reported sales for the first half year 2015 amounted to USD 175 million (SEK 1.5 billion), EBITDA of USD 32 million (SEK 268 million) and operating profit of USD 11 million (SEK 94 million). SCA will acquire Wausau Paper for total consideration of USD 513 million (approximately SEK 4.2 billion) in cash. The acquisition is expected to generate annual synergies amounting to approximately USD 40 million with full effect three years after closing. And the restructuring cost is estimated to amount to approximately USD 50 million. We are in favor of this acquisition as it complements SCA both business wise and geographically. 200 150 100 50 0 nov.10 nov.11 nov.12 nov.13 nov.14 nov.15 SCA Class B Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Household/Personal Care Market Value (mill.) 181,072 Price 256.80 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 34,095 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 215,167 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 109,142 81,337 85,408 89,019 104,054 115,640 120,347 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 8,747 7,655 8,487 9,663 11,516 13,084 14,117 - Net Income (mill.) 5,552 352 4,453 5,547 6,599 6,515 9,059 Price/Earnings 14.7 12.7 180.8 24.0 17.0 21.1 19.5 Price/Book Value 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.4 EV/EBIT 12.5 13.9 15.4 18.3 13.7 16.3 15.0 Return on Equity (%) 8.3-0.5 7.4 9.0 10.1 12.1 12.2 Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.9 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.4
Investment Objective Long term value creation
Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price
Om ODIN Norden På vegne av våre kunder, er ODIN en aktiv og ansvarsfull forvalter med fokus på langsiktig verdiskaping. I Norden skjer verdiskapingen i stor grad av selskaper som er verdensledende i sine bransjer. Norden er ODINs hjemmemarked, noe som gjør at vi har kunnskap, historikk og erfaring på vår side. Gjennom aksjefondet ODIN Norden kan også du ta del i verdiskapingen som skjer i det nordiske næringslivet. Fakta om fondet Etableringsdato 01/06/1990 Referanseindeks VINXBCAPNOKNI Basisvaluta NOK Forvaltningshonorar 2,00% Tegn./innløsningsgebyr 0,00% Minste tegningsbeløp 3.000 NOK
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