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4 .;;I4D< LISTE OVER TABELLER... 5 LISTE OVER FIGURER...5 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SUMMARY INNLEDNING INSTITUSJONER OG KLIMATILPASNING KLIMA, INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET OG OM DET Å BINDE SAMMEN DET GLOBALE OG DET LOKALE LOKALE INSTITUSJONELLE SYSTEMER LOKAL MILJØVERNFORVALTNING SOM NØKKELINSTITUSJON KLIMAMODELLER OG USIKKERHET GLOBALE KLIMAMODELLER REGCLIM SCENARIEUTVIKLING FOR NORDEN MULIGHETER FOR LOKAL NEDSKALERING SKISSE TIL ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER NORSKE FORSØK MED LOKALE MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER FORSØK PÅ Å UTVIKLE LOKALE INDIKATORER PÅ KLIMAOMRÅDET OPPBYGGING AV ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING GJENNOMGANG AV KONKRETE INDIKATORER NATURLIG FYSISK SÅRBARHET NATURLIG BIOLOGISK SÅRBARHET SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAPOLITIKK SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAENDRINGER INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET DRØFTING AV FORUTSETNINGER FOR BRUK AV DET FORESLÅTTE INDIKATORSYSTEMET EN TODELT INDIKATORMODELL PÅ TVERS OG PÅ LANGS OM KOBLINGEN MELLOM NASJONALE OG LOKALE SÅRBARHETSVURDERINGER SAMSPILL- OG SUMEFFEKTER LOKAL KLIMAPOLITIKK SOM FØRE-VAR POLITIKK OM BRUK AV INDIKATORMODELLEN I LOKALT KLIMAARBEID REFERANSER

5 LISTE OVER TABELLER Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003) Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003) Tabell 6: Eksempel på andel dyrka mark etter erosjonsrisikoklasser på kommunenivå (Nannestad kommune) Tabell 7: Forholdet mellom fysiske prosesser og klimapådriv forslag til indikatorer Tabell 8: Indikatorer for overvåking av det biologiske mangfoldet (Direktoratet for naturforvaltning) Tabell 9 En rangering av ulike sektorers økonomiske bæreevne til å tåle klimaavgifter og/eller gjennomføre egne klimatilta ( lavest indeks indikerer mest sårbare næringer) Tabell 10 Andel sysselsatte innen ulike næringer, eksempel for Sogndal (2001) Tabell 11 Utslipp av karbondioksid fra transport etter utført transportarbeid (Holtskog og Rypdal 1997) Tabell 12 Utslipp av klimagasser fra transport per person for Norge (1999) og Sogndal (2000), tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter per person og år Tabell 13 Næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer Tabell 14 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer.97 Tabell 15 Mulige utslag av klimaendringer med relevans for transportsektoren (Fjeld mfl 2002) 98 Tabell 16 Oppsummering av konsekvensvurdering for transportformer av mulige klimaendringer. Høyere tall indikerer større negativ konsekvens (etter Fjeld mfl 2002) Tabell 17 Eksempel på sårbarhetsindikatorer for ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg Tabell 18 Bygningstyper i faresonen ved store snølaster (Lisøe mfl 2000) Tabell 19 Forslag til indikatorer for lokal institusjonell sårbarhet med relevans for arbeidet med klimatilpasning Tabell 20 Eksempel på bruk av indikatorer for institusjonell sårbarhet Tabell 21 Risikomatrise for å sortere ut klimamessige høyrisiko kommuner Tabell 22 Skille mellom overnfra-og-ned indikatorer ( regionale indikatorer ) og nednefra-ogopp indikatorer ( lokale indikatorer ) Tabell 23 Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for de foreslåtte sårbarhetsindikatorene (jf foregående tabell) 113 Tabell 24 Samfunnsøkonomisk sårbarhet i forhold til klima LISTE OVER FIGURER Figur 1 Prinsippmodell for lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer Figur 2 Oppløsningsgraden i de globale klimamodellene Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003) Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003) Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002) Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002) Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994) Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995) Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred

6 Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager ) Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme Figur 15 Sammenhenger mellom klima og samfunn som grunnlag for utforming av en lokal klimatilpassings indikatormodell Figur 16:*A-4''<)22)'5)*("5)<<*+"-*.'.<6#)*./*<"&.<*#7-C.-B),*$*),*)'5-),*&<$( Figur 17: Elvestrekk klassifisert som flomutsatte (strekninger for flomsonekartlegging) Figur 18: Oversikt over kartlagte kvikkleireområder Figur 19: Kartlagt skredfare på landsbasis Figur 20: Eksempel på kartblad over kartlagt erosjonsfare ved høstpløying Figur 21: Eksempel på 10 års flomsonekart for Elverum nord Figur 22: Internettbasert kartverktøy for skredfare Figur 23 Endringer i vekstsesongens lengde i løpet av perioden 1982 til 1999 (Høgda mfl 2001) 86 Figur 24: Endring i forekomst av moser mellom to registreringsrunder med 5-års mellomrom på 1990-tallet (Økland mfl 2001) Figur 25 Eksempel på lokalt biomangfoldskart Figur 26 Sammenhengen mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp Figur 27 Vurdering av usikkerhet og forskjeller i grunnlag for begrunnelse av utslippsreduserende tiltak og klimatilpasning

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9 7S38,32/+0/88,/73293,:-..320:+A,3..3M17: =/2,;28-760<I7, /+:?1200-8<6,17:012/+,38/ :3+,393,48I17?32:1+<-8(a /+5U2360:/ ,1<<38.8-9/93::-72-:-.1'.+I ,2-+732/5.8-9/30 J9-+,23:+AL ,7/ :0:02A993+:194A873/5A.03,2-5:0144/ ( Regionale og lokale sårbarhetsindikatorer *0/< ,32=/25-: /T17T+3,-+,-./01232J]237-1+/83 -+,-./01232]L17+3,3+42/T17T1??-+,-./01232J]81./83-+,-./01232]L(X-=/28/ ?;/0,34123:8; /83-+,-./ S d-9/ ,317:;0-87S ?;* : T388324I8.3:5-:30/88(V ;=/.8/20412:37/0-+,-./ / ,0/+.3?;/0,34A2: :0:./8: /:S /06217:/946++?;,3+3+3:-,3+17 &"((4'.<)-+:0-06:S1+32d,30:-:03-910: ]:-5-83]-+:0-06:S1+32.+I /+-:/:S1+3217,3081./83+U2-+7:8-530(O03+, /87/ ,38-7: /83-+,-./ /83-+,-./01232<A2</:323 :37?;3+932,30/8S320562, ,/0/0-87/+717f5-.0-7:0f3+60?2A5-+7 /5-+,-./ ?2/.:-:412; =51271,23:1+/+:,381./83-+,-./ =/ /8<3: ::/993+=3+7( "#$%%&'*P"-#<.2*,$<*-)2$"'.<)*$'5$&.,"-)-*"2*<"&.<)*$'5$&.,"-)-*+"-*/4-5)-$'2*./* <"&.<*&<$(.#7-C.-B),*.;<=>2541I4A?<0,?C=4;2D?=;<=>2541?1 &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 R8-9/<3: ,-./ O21:S1+ 1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i: O+, :0:3:1+73+: O+, :0/5/ ,3 O+,2-+7/5<-101?32.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer med særlig høye utslipp av klimagasser per enhet av verdiskaping *+42/: `0:8-???32?32:1+/5.8-9/7/::3242/91<-83.-8,32.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer som er særlig utsatt for virkninger av klimaendringer *+42/: ' 02/+:?120 *+42/: ' 83, P37-1+/8:;2</2=30:562, /+:? /: S <-+,38:393, B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+ H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32 -++<I7732 c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+, , /.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3, N12,38-+7/560:8-???32 02/+:?1209-,,38 W6:032-+7/581./8360:8-?? J:U I17<;0L c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+, , /.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3, H1./83562, :;2</2= /+:?120:I:03932( H1./83562, ,+-+7:+300M.2/4083,

10 *+42/: ' <I O+, ,<A2:19:+A?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** b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b/ ,305U230/ C#"<4,,:;2</2=30M-=153,:/ , /5,3++/ :;2</2=303+f4123.:39?38:;2</2=30412:.23, M,32,30./+5U23/ ;1? ,+13+/<:186003:;2</2=30:723+:32( Sårbarhetsvurderinger X3,;0/-<26., /83-+,-./ /+9/ ]1"-2)#&.-,]:19 7SA21::-:0/+,0-8;-,3+0-4-: ,23:;2</ ?; ,+30+-5;(X3,;0/-<26.,381./83-+,-./ SA2381./83S6: , ,3/+0/0093:0:;2</ M5-89/ <"&.<)2-:-.1./ ,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562, (V-::332:;93+0;-++7; :196+,328/ /83<3: ( *607/+7:? /+9/+03+.3:37010I?32/+/8I:3293,726++8/7-5;2 -+,-./01291,388'?;<.'2#M,5:(-++3+h+:3.012J4123.:39?388/+,<26.L?;,/)-#M,5:(412:/908-73: /32 10

11 V3+4A2:030-8+U / :0194/003+,3M93+:,3+:-: <U2323+:/ ,32-+7J?;0532:L/5/883: '/80:;3+562,32-+7/5,3+:/983,3:;2</2= /80(V3++3:-:030I?3/+/8I:35-8+A,53+,-75-: :.562,32-+7/5<8(/(:69T17:/9:? ,3: :3 :;2</2=30:562, ( Usikkerhet *++7/ ;<26.35;291,38832/0, /83-+,-./ /2:37 1?32/:S1+/8-:323(V3032,-::3:19:./ /7412;562,323 =3+:-.0:93::-7=303+/5;7S3++194A23932,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562, /80 93,0/+.3?;;4; /83-+,-./01232(c3,,/73+:.6++:./?::0/06:32, ;7S3++194A ?8300]?;0532:]T/+/8I:3(V303217:;6: =5128/+709/+-?2/.:-: ,3+]?;0532:]T/+/8I: : ( V3032.+I0030:0126:-..32=300-8,304123:8;003-+,-./012:I:03930(N12,304A2:0332,30, ,36:-..32=303+.+I :?A2:9;830"(.8-9/3+, /.0-: :03,d17-+3:03197/+7=512:012,3++33+, U23(V32+3: :?A2:9;83019=153, , /4-:.3+"-5)<$'2)'/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(X-,32332,30.8/20/ /9/ :./?19 ;2:/.T :412=18,+;2,307S38, /5.8-9/3+,2-+732( V30037S38,32:U28-7A.1:I: M38832, =/2./80,3++/ <-1817-:.3:;2</2=303+(X-,32332,30:?A2:9; ,:./832-+7/ /83 +3,0-881./83.8-9/5/2-/:S1+32M,32,30-9/ ?; ,/0/( Sårbarhetsvurderinger i forbindelse med kommunal planlegging *+,-./01291,3883+=/2:199;8f-:-:03-+:0/+:f; ;-3+<"&.< <3: ::/993+=3+7(*, :;3+46+.:S1+-,-/ ,30 81./ /:S1+/83d/80:;:-7+/832]1??1532]-:I:03930(V :/993+=3+73+,325;2-+,-./01291, :0;2:1993:023835/ ;<3,23 <3: :6+,328/730-,3+<.'2#$&,$2)*=<.'<)22$'2)'*81./80(V3003:.S32-?2/.:-: /993+3/ /8?8/ ?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+M17 194/ :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:194239:0;2:19:U /+03- :/993+=3+793,:;2</2=30:562, /17.8-9/? '-L.1996+/8?8/ d--L.1996+/89-8SA / L <323,:./?:/2<3-,(V3+81./83?8/ ?;-,3++3:/993+=3+73+./+0/ =18, ' 03.:0,383+/ ?8/ /4-: ,38?8/ /0-: ,38?8/+32J4123.:39?389-8SA532+?8/+M.8-9/?8/+1(/(L /23/8,383+M:19-7S3+7-22/ :?8/ :3.53+:6023, R1996+/8?8/ =18,3217:; =-"#)## :197S38,32 =512,/+17-= /,-++<I / :: :

12 ?8/+/2<3-,30M601532, :.2/53+3:19?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+: ??(O0/ :1932:5U ,3++3:/993+= )'#)#'$,,), /8?8/ <323,:./?:?8/ (V34I8.3:5-:3 <323,:./?:/5, =/2600/83T :/993+= :-738:3: =18, /83?8/+32(X-,3237S3++194A23:, /832-:-.117 Lokal miljøvernkompetanse som avgjørende faktor V ;2562, ;4239=353/0,3+&"((4'.<)*($<>%/)-'="<$,$&&)' +129/805-8=/3+'%&&)<-"<<)-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V30:I+3: ;=35,3/0.8-9/0-8?/: =/:0A2:07S3++19:8/7:.2/4081./80=5-:0-8?/:+-+7:3003: /?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7(a5-:-..3./+.8-9/0-8?/: <8-23,6: :-5-80<323,:./?:/2<3-, < /23/8?8/ J4123.:39? ;;83773< : ,3L(*..39-+:032, ,3+ :8-..1< ;608A: :I :8-??: ?/:+-+7: /? (O : /+7: =/2,3 :-:03;23+30/001??60412, ; /8.8-9/? ( O24/ ,/2<3-,3093,.1996+/83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32:;538:19 /2<3-,3093,,308/+705-,323/+8/703H1./8E73+,/)"T/2<3-,3017/2<3-,3093, 3+<U23.2/ :32/0: : /89-8SA532+83,3232=380 /57SA23+,3412:?A2:9;83019=5125-, :./83+7/:S323:37932/ SA? (V30:I+3: ;/+0//0?103+:-/ /003+,3 3+7/:S /8017:;+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732/5=3+7-7/5=5125-, =/2: :23::62: ,+3017: ?3+,3 9-8SA532+/2<3-,d-?2/.:-::?A2:9; =/20-8:/ SA532+2;,7-532( Lokal klimatilpasning som føre-var :?A2:9;830"(.8-9/3+, /.0-:.3.:-:03232M /093++3:.3:./?03 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/:: A:3+,3;2:/.M /0-8?/:+-+7/880-,5U23 : I :?A2:9;830196:-..32=30(V :;5U233+6:-..32=30/5?2-+:-?-388./2/.032M:19+U2:/ ,6:323: (V3+?2-+:-?-38836:-..32=303+7S38,32:?A2:9;83019=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;60 81./80(N12,-5/2-/:S U23:;?/:::01217,305-85U ;:- :-..320=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;6081./80M5-83+= /8.8-9/? ;003412=18,3: ,36:-..32=30'3+ +.2<$26:-..32=30:197S38,32=512,/+81./8:/ <8-2/9930/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M173+="<$,$#&6:-..32=30:197S38,32=512,/+81./8:/ <8-i2/9930i/542/5U :03,35U238:3/5+/:S1+/83.8-9/?18-0-:.30-80/ /7412;=35,3/081./8.8-9/? ,32412-?2/.:-:9;5U233+4A23T5/ ? ( P%-)3/.-*=-$'#$==),: ,3,-93+:S1+324#$&&)-B),M17/06:-..32=303+ :./8.1993($<>%),0-871,3(`:-..32=307S38,32?; ;,32',307S38,32<;,3 6:-..32=3019;2:/.T :412=18,176:-..32= /+730/5 +37/ SA :194A873/593++3: ?(N12/04A23T5/2 12

13 ?2-+:-??30:./ /+53+,38:3.+I0032,30:375-, /519/0 6:-..32=303+:./87S38,39-8SA?21<83932/5$--)/)-#$C)<./2/.032( V I:3+,3B/"-5.'4A23T5/2T?2-+:-??30:./8/+53+,3:-?2/.:-:(j U ;5-:30-84A23T5/2?2-+:-??30-3+/ /:S /8?8/ :1930:3+02/ ,,38-412=18,0-8<;,3 60:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/:+-+7(*, A,53+,-75-:17:;/ ;7SA23:$*#,.'5*,$<;7S3++194A23,3:/993?8/+?21:3::3+3M+13 : :0,23-32:3719;:3003/50-8: /,9-+-:02/ A.1+19-:.323::62:32f-4A2:03197/+70-8,30;7SA2381./83 #7-C.-B),#/4-5)-$'2)-d-+3:03197/+70-8;412=18,3:370-8: , , ;7S3++194A ?/:+-+732( V3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;30&.'+1.:3003:-:0/+,0-8+U2:/70]/83+3];7SA23 81./83:;2</2=30:562, f7-00,3<3723+: :197S38,326:-..32=30 190/801532f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idere arbeid P/ ;20/2<3-,0-88/ :03+,-71?32/:S1+/8-:32-+7/5 -+,-./01291,3883+(V = ?21:S3.030;?2A536091,3883+( V ??7/53:19<A24A873:1??30032/05;20?21:S3.032/5:860030( N12=;? :325;2-+,-./01291,388:;8/ /0, / ; 7;42/91, ,38860?2A5-+7M412,3293,;=/ /7412; /8-4-: ,-./01291,3883+4/.0-:.35+32;<-,2/-/2<3-,3093,; :0I2.3+12: :-++:/0:-/2<3-,3093,;0-8?/::3:37.8-9/3+,2-+732( 13

14 $BEE21Q F=-:23?120-:?/2014/S1-+0-+:0-0603?21S3_00=/0-:_/22-3,160-+_188/<12/0-1+ E,9-+-:02/0-1+Mb3273+L(G-0=-+0=3:_1?3140=-:?21S3_0M/:3?/2/03:6<T?21S3_0-:,34-+3,_1+_ =3-+: /8,-93+:-1+14_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+(QB)*=4-="#) 140=3?21S3_023?1203,=323-:0^1418,'01?215-,3/_1+_3?06/8_8/2-4-_/ ]-+: / /<-8-0I]/+,]/,/?0/0-1+]^-0= _301B12^37-/+ _-2_69:0/+_3:d/+,:3_1+,8IM01,35381?/+-+,-_/012</:3,91,38412/::3:: _/82-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I^-0=237/2, _8-9/03_=/+73:/+, /0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:(bI]_8-9/03?18-_-3:]^393/+:02/037-3:/+,93/:623: 0123,6_339-::-1+14_8-9/037/:3:( Dual indicator approach Q62:0/20-+7?1-+0=/:<33+0=3238/0-538I^-,3T93:=3,/::3::93+0:0=/0=/53 /823/,I<33+9/,3^-0=-+0=323:3/2_=?2172/993]P37-1+/8D8-9/03 V35381?93+0`+,32Y81</8G/29-+7]JP37D8-9L/+,/?/2/8838-+,-_/012?21S3_0 /0D*DOPQ(*+162^12.^3=/5302-3,01=-7=8-7=00=233-::63:' - a1^,1_8-9/03_=/+73:/443_0/81_/8_ i,-23_08i/+,-+,-23_08ie - a1^,193/:623:0123,6_30=339-::-1+14_8-9/037/:3:/443_0/81_/8 _ Ie - G=/0-+: /8_/?/_-0I,13:/81_/8_ I=/5301/8835-/030=3 +37/ _0:14_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,93/:623:0123,6_30=339-::-1+14 _8-9/037/:3:e * /0-1+/88-032/0623M0=3:3.-+,:14-+,-_/012:=/53<33+8/<3883, /4<')-.C$<$,6*$'5$M.,"-#(F1_8/2-4I0=3:3-::63:-+0=3<3:0?1::-<83^/I^3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3,<30^33+,B-))*M.,)2"-$)#1481_/ /<-8-0I-+,-_/012:' "( +/062/8?=I:-_/8/+,<-1817-_/ /<-8-0I )( :1_-1T3_1+19-_568+32/<-8-0I^-0=237/2,01_8-9/03?18-_-3:/+,_8-9/03 _=/+73: &( -+: / /<-8-0I F=3#4(140=3:3-+,-_/012:^-88:/I:1930=-+7/<1600=3010/ /<-8-0I14/ 81_/8_ I(D1+_ : / /<-8-0IM^3=/53_=1:3+0141_6: 1+?18-0-_/8:I:039:f-(3(0=396+-_-?/8-0I/:/?18-0-_/8/+,/,9-+-:02/0-53<1,If ^=323-+,-_/012:^168,<3/ :384412:023+70= =3-+: /8 _/?/_-0IM/00=3:/930-93/:-+,-_/012:9123:?3_-4-_/88I^-8841_6:1+0=3 _/?/_-0I01_/22I16081_/8_8-9/03/,/?0/ :(F=3.3I-+: /8:I:039: /230=3+'96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7M96+-_-?/ /8/,9-+-:02/0-1+/+, 96+-_-?/8_-5-8?2103_0-1+/+, _I?8/++-+7( F=3?62?1:314,35381? /<-8-0I-+,-_/012:-:017-53/91231?32/0-1+/8 </:-:4129/.-+72-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:(G3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3, <30^33+/01?T,1^+/+,/<10019T6?-+,-_/012/??21/_=(F=34-2:0/??21/_= 14

15 93/+:0=/0^36:3/5/-8/<83+/0-1+/8:0/0-:0-_:/+,23:680:4219,1^+T:_/ </8_8-9/0391,38:019/.3/4-2:02167=2/ =3010/ /<-8-0I412 B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3:(a323^36:3/8-9-03,+69<3214_"-)*$'5$M.,"-#(F=3 :3_1+,/??21/_=3+0/-8:0=36:314/+69<3214:6??8393+0/2I<"M.<-+,-_/012: </:3,1+0=3_1883_ _/8,/0/( F=323/23/+69<321423/:1+:412/,6/8/??21/_=/: ,/<153(E4-2:0? /2I2/ _-?/8-0-3:</:3,1+81_/ /<-8-0I_/+<36:3,-+ 0=233_1+03k0:(*+/'.,$"'.<_1+03k0:6_=/2/+.-+7_/+<36:3,01,-:_6::0=3 /_06/8+33,412_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+93/:623:M<3_/6:3-0:=1^:81_/8]3k02393:] 0=/0/ _/91648/73, /8+/0-1+/ /8/::3::93+0:(c M :6_=/2/+.-+7_/+?215-,3/</:-:4120=3.<<"M.,$"'14:0/0323:162_3:01_8-9/03 #,$(4<.,)*<"M.<*$',)-)#,-+2/-:-+7l63:0-1+:/<160_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+M/+,? =3_1++3_0-1+<30^ /<-8-0I^-0=23:?3_001_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,_8-9/03 93/:623:( G=-830=301?T,1^+/??21/_=9/I=/53/+-+: /846+_0-1+^-0=237/2,01 0=3-9?8393+0/ /0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:M:6_=/+/??21/_==/:1<5-16: 8-9-0/0-1+:-+/<"M.<?18-0-_/8_1+03k0(*+0=3:3_/:3:M0=323-:/+33,412-+,-_/012: 0=/0/239123:3+: =381_/8:-06/0-1+/+,/23/8:1_/?/< : :9/883281_/8_=/+73: (F=381_/8-+,-_/012:^-88<3/_19<-+/ =2330I?3:14-+,-_/012:' - ]+3^]l6/+0-4-3,-+,-_/012:</:3,1+23/881_/8,/0/ - 81_/8/,/?0/0-1+:143k-:0-+7_123-+,-_/012:-+/ 12,/+_3^-0=S6, ?23_-:3:_ _/::3::93+0: k03+:-5381_/8/::3::93+0:01-,3+0-4I_1+_ /<83/23/:12?=I:-_/81<S3_0:M : _/ /<-8-0I9/?: b10019t6?/??21/_=3:/230=6:01/:9/88323k03+0/:02/-7=0412^/2,-+,-_/012 8/I160M-+0=3:3+:30=/0-0-:9123/9/ :0/<8-:=-+70=393:41281_/8 -+53:0-7/0-1+:0=/+01?23:3+0/_19?83038-:014l6/+0-4-/<83-+,-_/012:(b10019T6? /??21/_=3:/ ,3,4126:3-+0=3/::693,]=-7=2-:.]96+-_-?/8-0-3: -, ,-+0=3-+-0-/801?T,1^+/+/8I:-:M/+,/23/,,-0-1+/88I-+03+,3,01 :023+70=3+0=3,3_-:-1+</:3-+81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7?21_3::3:( Vulnerability matrix F=30^1/??21/_=3:_/+<3_1++3_03,0=2167=/:1T_/883,/4<')-.C$<$,6*(.,-$R( N120=-:?62?1:3^34-2:06:3/:9/8832:383_ ,-_/012:f0=3:1T_/883,01?T,1^+,32-53,-+,-_/012:f012/+.96+-_-?/8-0-3:/ 12,-+701/::693,2-:.14 3k03+:-53')2.,$/)_1+:3l63+_3:14_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,$12_8-9/0393/:623:( E /k-:^3=/53?8/_3,-+,-_/012:14?21<839_/6:3:J-(3(+/062/8/+, :1_-/ /<-8-0ILM^=-830=310=32/k-::=1^:-+,-_/012:14?21<839: J-(3(-+: / /<-8-0IL(F=3=-7=3:02-:./2-:3:42190=3_19<-+/ ^-+: /8_/?/_-0IJ12=-7=-+: / /<-8-0IL/+,/_19<-+/ =-7=+/062/8/+,:1_-1T3_1+19-_568+32/<-8-0IJ^-0=237/2,01<10=_8-9/03 _=/+73:/+,_8-9/0393/:623:L( 15

16 E+3k/9?8314_8-9/0-_=-7=T2-:.:1_-30-3:^168,<302/538,3:0-+/0-1+:-+/23/: 0=/0=/53-+53:03,-+^-+032:?120:4/_-8-0-3:M^=-_=9/I<39/27-+/8^-0=237/2, 010=3/532/73+69<3214:+1^,/I:M/+,0=/0-+/,,-0-1+=/53?1128I,35381?3,?6<8-_02/+:?120/0-1+/+,/8/273?21? /538832:<I?8/+3/+,?2-5/03_/2( *+:6_=_/:3:0=381_/8_ I-:3k?1:3,01/,16<83_8-9/0-_2-:.'_1++3_03, 01_8-9/03_=/+73:J83:::+1^L/+,/?1::-<8323,6_ :9/:/ _1+:3l63+_314-+_23/:3,46380/k3:( Regional and local vulnerability indicators *+0=30/<83<381^^3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3,<30^33+01?T,1^+-+,-_/012:J]237-1+/8 -+,-_/012:]L/+,<10019T6?-+,-_/012:J]81_/8-+,-_/012:]L(G3=/53:023::3,0=/0 0=3:6773:03,_123-+,-_/012::=168,<33/:-8I/5/-8/<83d-+9/+I_/:3:0=3I/ /5/-8/<831+0=3* /:96+-_-?/812_16+0I:0/0-:0-_:(*0-:/8:1-9?120/ ?-+9-+,0=/00=3:3-+,-_/012:=/53<33+:383_03,?2-9/2-8I<3_/6:30=3I :=168,:/I:1930=-+7/<1600=3238/0-1+:=-?<30^33++/0623/+,:1_-30I1+0=3 1+3=/+,/+,(4'$M$=.<-+: :1+0=310=32d0=38/0032-+_1+02/:001]_-5-8] -+: :238/03,01+1+T /8127/+-:/0-1+:/+,81_/8<6:-+3::3:(F=3 4-+/8:383_ ,-_/012:/+,/ /8,-:0-+_0-1+<30^ /8/+, 81_/8-+,-_/012::=168,<3</:3,1+/9123,30/-83,/::3::93+014,/0// 3::/+, f91:0-9?120/+08if03: =3-+,-_/012:-+?2/_0-_3014-+,160=1^^3880=3 81_/8-+,-_/012:23:1+/03-+/81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7_1+03k0( "#%$&'*422)#,)5*M"-)*$'5$M.,"-#*.'5*<"M.<*$'5$M.,"-#*+"-*.##)##()',*"+*<"M.<* M<$(.,)*/4<')-.C$<$,6* ()*+,"-./&0"+)123#&-4$0$2& 5$6+.)"%&+)*+,"-./2& 7.,"%&+)*+,"-./2&& 1.,4-.<*=B6#$M.<*/4<')-.C$<$,6* T N811,: T H/+,:8-,3:$/5/8/+_=3: T O21:-1+ 1.,4-.<*C$"<"2$M.<*/4<')-.C$<$,6* T D8-9/03,3?3+,3+0 -+,-_/012: T O_1:I: _0: T D=/+73:-+0=383+70=14 0=3721^-+7:3/:1+ EM"'"($M*/4<')-.C$<$,6*,"*M<$(.,)*="<$M$)#* T b6:-+3::/+,-+,6:02i T B69<321439?81I33:-+ 2-:.-+,6:02-3:^-0=?/20-_68/28I=-7= 39-::-1+:14_8-9/03 7/:3:? _23/03, 5/863 T *+42/:026_0623 T O9-::-1+:?32?32:1+14 _8-9/037/::3: <-83:162_3: "M$"3)M"'"($M*/4<')-.C$<$,6*,"*M<$(.,)*MB.'2)#* T b6:-+3::/+,-+,6:02i T B69<321439?81I33:-+ 2-:.-+,6:02-3:0=/0/23?/20-_68/28I3k?1:3,01 T H1_/8/,S6:093+0:14 _8-9/03,/0/ T c/?? /<83 /23/: T D=/+73:-+0=32/+7314 :?3_-3:-+35-,3+_3 T D=/+73:-+<-101?3: T c t93:=3, 39?81I93+0::0/0-:0-_: T c1230=12167= /::3::93+0:14/_06/ /<-8-0I /+0 <6:-+3::3: T O9-::-1+:,-:02-<603,1+ 0=3, /+:14 02/+:?120/0-1+ T E,S6:093+0:1481_/8 39-::-1+:J3:?3_-/88I412 /-2?8/+3:/+,<1/0:L T c t93:=3, 39?81I93+0:0/0-:0-_: T c1230=12167= 16

17 T *+42/:026_0623' 02/+:?120/0-1+ T *+42/:026_0623'?-?38-+3: /+,9/-+::I:039 0=33443_0:14_8-9/03 _=/+73: T P37-1+/ /<-8-0I /::3:: /+:?120/ /:026_0623_/22-3,160 -+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3 B/0-1+/802/+:?120/0-1+?8/+ T H3+70=14,2/-+/73?-?3?32-+=/<-0/+0 T *+42/:026_0623'<6-8,-+7: T D=/+73:-+?23_-?-0/ = :+1^?'#,$,4,$"'.</4<')-.C$<$,6 T O_1+19-_23:162_3: T F/k :?32 -+=/<-0/+0 T K1?68/0-1+?217+1:3: T a69/+23:162_3: T K32: :162_3:/: 96+-_-?/8/,9-+-:02/ =3?2103_ = T K21/_0-53/<-8-0I 0=346+_0-1+]?=I:-_/8?8/++-+7M?2103_ _68062/8=32-0/73M+/0623 /+,81_/ ] T P3/_0-53/<-8-0I T c/+t8/<162ti3/2:4120=3 46+_0-1+]? :/+,10=32/ -,3+0:] T *9?8393+0/0-1+_/?/_-0I T B301?32/0-1+/8 3k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k39?0-1+ T c6+-_-?/8_1+0218^-0= 23:?1+:-<83_1+:026_012: -+<6-8,-+7_/:3:013+:623 _19?8-/+_3^-0= 3:0/<8-:=3,_1+0218?8/+: -9?8393+0/ /8 _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3:-+ 81_/8/,9-+-:02/0-1+ T K21? /??8-_/0-1+: 237/2,-+7/_0-1+:-+2-:. /23/:0=/0^32372/+03, 3k39? Regulated agriculture, nature and outdoor recreation-areas in the municipal plan. 17

18 F=30/<83/<153_1+0/-+:-+,-_/012:0=/04120=39/-+?/20,3:_2-<3-)<.,$/) /<-8-0I(F=3?1-+0-:01=-7=8-7=0<"M.<5/2-/0-1+:_19?/23,01,B)*'.,$"'.<*./)-.2)M3(7(-+0=3?21? ]_8-9/03:3+:-0-53]<6:-+3::3:M"(=.-)5*,"0=3 +/0-1+/8/532/73(F=6:412-+:0/+_3?23,19-+/+08I-+,6:02-/8_ :^=323 0=3-+,6:02I,-:_=/273:?/20-_68/28I8/273/916+0:14_8-9/037/:3:^ /: 238/0-538I /<830=/+0=3+/0-1+/8/532/73(Q+8I-+:?3_-/8_/:3:^-88-0 <3/9/ C#"<4,)568+32/<-8-0IM?2-9/2-8I237/2,-+7/::3::93+0:14+/062/ /<-8-0If412-+:0/+_ /<-8-0I018/+,:8-,3:124811,M^=323-09/I<3?1::-<8301/??8I:193/<: /<-8-0I_2-032-/( Vulnerability assessments bi/??8i-+70=3_123-+,-_/012:^3_/+,35381?, ](.=#*"+*1"-o.6]0=/0 3+/<836:01-,3+0-4I ::568+32/<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:1+/+/0-1+/883538(bI /??8I-+781_/8-+,-_/012:/+,9/.-+781_/8/,S6:093+0:/+,/::3::93+0:-+0=3 91: /<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:-, ,M^3_/+,35381?<"M.<2-:.9/?:/+, 9123,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:(F=3:3/ ,3,01?215-,3/</:-:412, ,:1481_/8,3_-:-1+:( E:/:0/20-+7?1-+0M^3_/+-,3+0-4I0^10I?3:14/+/8I:3:^-0=/</:-: ,-_/01291,38' _/8M-(3(^-0=-+1+3:3_012J412-+:0/+_3/72-_680623L - =12-m1+0/8M-(3(412/88:3_012:/+,-::63: F=34-2:0/??21/_=-:<I, =383/:0_19?23=3+:-53M^=-830=38/ /-8: /_19?8303/::3::93+0/_21::/88:3_012:M-(3(/+/::3:: /881_/ /<-8-0I(F=-:8/00320I?314/+/8I:-:^-88+3_3::/2-8I23l6-23/_2-0-_/8 /::3:: (7(:69T/+,:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+, :3_012/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:( Uncertainty F=3?239-:3412/??8I ,38-:0=/0-0-:?1::-<83011?32/0-1+/8-m30= /8-+,-_/012:(F= /8-+,-_/012:41290=3</:-:412,3_-,-+7^=30= :6:346801_/22I ,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:81_/88I-+ 12,3201?21,6_381_/8-+,-_/012:(G-0=0=3.+1^83,73/5/-8/<8301,/I-0-:+10?1::-<8301_/22I160/_19?8303]=12-m1+0/8]/+/8I:-:(*0-:/8:16+_320/-+=1^4/2-0-:?1::-< ?2/_0-_3^-0=/]=12-m1+0/8]_21:::3_0-1+/8/+/8I:-:( F=323-:_1+:-,32/<836+_320/-+0I-+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3?21?1:3,-+,-_/012 :I:039(N-2:014/88M0=323-:0=3</:-_-+:3_62-0I^-0=237/2,010=3-::6314^=30= _8-9/03_=/+73:/23/_06/88I0/.-+7?8/_3d/+,:3_1+,8IM=1^3k03+:-530=-: _=/+73:^-88<3(F=3+_193:0=3l63: =39/-+/:?3_0:140=373172/?=-_/8 5$#,-$C4,$"'14_8-9/03_=/+73:(c M-0-:_83/20=/0412:193140=3:3-::63: ^38/_..+1^83,73/<1600=3_/6:/8238/0-1+:=-?^-0=237/2,01?1::-<833443_0:14 _8-9/03_=/+73:(F=-:-:?/20-_68/28I _1:I: _0:M12^=/0^3=/53 _/883,+/062/8<-1817-_/ /<-8-0I(H/:08IM0=323-:0=3-::6314,1^+:_/ /8,1^+0181_/8_8-9/035/2-/0-1+M^=323-+9/+I_/:3:+1238-/<83,/0//23 /5/-8/<83( 18

19 Vulnerability assessments in connection with municipal planning *+0=34-+/8/+/8I:-:M0=31<S3_0140=3-+,-_/01291,38-:01_1+02-<60301/81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7_1+03k0(F=-:-+_86,3:/8: :-7+/8:i6?^/2,:i01^/2,: /8/+,+/0-1+/883538:/+,71532+/+_3(F=3_1+03k0^= ,-_/012 91,38:339:01<391:023835/+0-:-+-9? =3</:-:412,3_-:-1+T9/ <"'2*,)-(*<"M.<*=<.''$'2(*+?2/_0-_3M0=-:-:_1+,6_03,^-0=-+0=342/93^ _-?/8?8/ ,320=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7/_0M/+,_19?2-:3:0=233 -+: /8:I:039:0=/0/??3/201<3?/20-_68/28I23835/ /<-8-0I /::3::93+0:140=3_8-9/03/+,_8-9/03?18-_-3:'-L96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7d--L 96+-_-?/ /8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/0-1+/+,---L _I?8/++-+7( P3835/+081_/8?8/ =-:/23/9/I0/.3, :/+,_1+0/-+, :' - 0=303k0?/20140=396+-_-?/8?8/ /?=-_/896+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+: - 0=39/0-_96+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+:J3(7( /8?2103_0-1+?8/+M _8-9/03?8/+30_(L - 0=3/23/?8/+M^=-_=/7/-+?215-,3:0=342/93^ /0-1+?8/+: - _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3: c6+-_-?/8?8/++-+7/8:1_1+0/-+:/+-9?120/+0=-"m)## /2,-+7=1^ /+,01^=/0, =/<-0/+0:/+,81_/ :0:/ ,-+0=3?8/++-+7?21_3::M<3I1+,0= l : ,-+0=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7 /_0(E+10=32-9?120/ =-:_1+03k0-:0=3$',)-+.M)<30^ _-?/8?8/++-+7/+, _I?8/++-+7(F=3_16+0I _I/,9-+-:02/0-1+=/:0=3 2-7=001:?3/./+,-+:193_/:3:011<S3_ _-?/8?8/+:(N620=329123M 96+-_-?/82-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:JPQ@L/23_/22-3,160M^=-_=:=168, <3+/062/88I8-+.3,_81:38I0196+-_-?/8?8/++-+7?21_3::3:( Local environmental protection competence as decisive factor *+1621?-+-1+M-0-:-9?120/+00139?=/:-:30=/096+-_-?/ /8?18-_-3: +129/88I^-88?8/I.*&)6*-"<)-+0=-:_1+03k0(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/27630=/0 _8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+:^-88=/53723/ _081_/88I-4/,/?0/0-1+:/23?60-+01/ _8-9/03?18-_I_1+03k0(Q0=32^-:3M_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+9/I3/:-8I<323,6_3,01/ 9/003214_ _I?8/++-+7^-0=:1930-3:01/23/?8/++-+7J3(7(01/51-,?8/_-+7+3^=16:3:-+4811,m1+3:30_(L(@6_=/_1++3_0-1+-:?/20-_68/28I -9?120/+00123/?0=3<3+34-0:14?1::-<83:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+39-:: ,/+,/,/?0/ ,_8-9/03?18-_-3:(*+23_3+0I3/2:/+69<3214 B12^37-/+? _-?/8-0-3:=/53/ 3?03,0=3_=/ ,35381?-+70=3-2 1^+81_/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:(Ok?32-3+_3:42190=3^12.^-0=96+-_-?/8_8-9/03 /_0-1+?8/+:/:^388/:0=3-9?8393+0/ =396_=9123_19?23=3+:-53 H1_/8E73+,/)"/+,^12.^-0=:6:0/-+/<83,35381?93+0:=1^:0=/00=3?1: _-?/ /8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/012-:,3_-: =3-::6314 ^=30= =396+-_-?/8-0I^ /_0-538I , /8?18-_I(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/::6930=/00=3?103+0-/ k03+:-5381_/ /8:1^-0=237/2,01_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+,3?3+,:1+^=30= _/8/60=12-0-3:=/53?32: :162_3: ,-+7/+,_21::T:3_0-1+/8 19

20 /8?2103_0-1+/_ :d-+?2/_0-_3/l63:0-1+14^=30= =3 81_/8/60=12-0-3:=/53/??1-+03,/ /8?2103_0-1+/,5-:32( Local climate adaptation as a precautionary policy O53+-4^3/::6930=/00=323-:/23/:1+/<83, _320/-+0I^-0=237/2,010=3 l63:0-1+14ob),b)-*"-*'",_8-9/03_=/+73:/_06/88i/230/.-+7?8/_3m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`+_320/-+0I/??8-3:01/+69<3214 /23/:'-0/??8-3:<10=010=36+_320/-+0I237/2,-+7_/6:3T3443_0238/0-1+:=-?:/+, 6+_320/-+0I^-0=23:?3_0010=33k / /83443_0:/:/ _1+:3l63+_314=69/+/_0-5-0I(N120=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?8301<3/??8-3,M 0=323-:/4620=3223l =/00=36+_320/-+0I:=168,?320/ /8?21<839:14/+$--)/)-#$C<)+/0623( *0-:+101<5-16:B"O0=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83:=168,<3/??8-3,-+?2/_0-_3( Q+3?1::-<83/??21/_=-:01? =3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83-+/+/ _-?/8?8/++-+7/:/_26_-/8-+: ^-0=237/2,01<10=23,6_3, 39-::-1+:/+,_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+(F=-:+3_3::/2-8I-9?8-3:0=/081_/8/60=12-0-3: 96:0C))'.C<)501_/22I1600=3:3?8/++-+7?21_3::3:M/+,01/8/2733k03+00=-:-: /9/003214:300-+7/:-,3/,3l6/03/,9-+-:02/0-53/+,4-+/+_-/823:162_3:f4-2:08I 01_/22I16081_/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:M/+,:3_1+,8I01/_06?1+:6_= /::3::93+0:<I-9? /2-16:/,/?0/0-1+:( F=381_/8/,9-+-:02/ ?21</<8IM"4<5<33+/<83,01_/22I16081_/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:n/81+3]:101:?3/.f7-53+0=38-9-0/0-1+:_1+_ =36+_320/-+0I,3:_2-<3,/<153f<6083/5-+70=323:?1+:-<-8-0I14/,/? =3 2-:.:_3+/2-1:0=/023: _/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:010=381_/8 /,9-+-:02/ /81+3M-:6+0=-+./<83(F=3.-+,14?23_/60-1+/2I?21<839: 0=/081_/8_ :/_06/88I4/_3M-+?2/_0-_323l6-23/:021+7/+,<-+,-+7 _11?32/0-1+/_21::, :3_012:/+,, /,9-+-:02/ :(*0-: 0= ?1::-<8301?-_0623_1+_230381_/8_ ^-0=160/<-+,-+7/+, 3l6/88I_19?23=3+:-53+/0-1+/8?18-_I-+0=-:/23/(Ok?32-3+_3:4219/891:003+ I3/2:o344120:01?60E73+,/)"=-7=1+0=381_/ /8?18-_I/73+,/ -886:02/030=-:?1-+0M/+,/00=3:/930-93:6773:00=/0^3:=168,: /0-538I91,32/03/9<-0-1+:_1+_ k?3_0/0-1+:1481_/ ,01<-+,-+7+/0-1+/8:6??120( 20

21 Further work F=3:_1?314162?21S3_0,13:+10?329-0/_19?83031?32/0-1+/8-:/ =3 -+,-_/01291,38(B12-:-0^-0=-+0=3<16+,/2-3:140=3?21S3_00103:00=391,38-+?2/_0-_3(F=-:0/:.:=168,<341881^3,6?/40320=3_19? ?21S3_0( a1?34688im162-+,-_/01291,38-::14/2,35381?3,0=/00=323-:/238/0-538i:=120 ^/I421991,38,35381? ,3803:0-+7M/+,0=6:/</:-:412/9123 l6/8-4-3,1? ^=30= =3-+,-_/01291,38-:/_06/88i_/?/<8314 _1+02-< =30/:.14:023+70=3+-+70= :14B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3: 01/,/?001_8-9/03_=/+73:( 21

22 6L.;;D?<;=;C P/?? ; :0-0600?21:S3.030]D8-9/03D=/+73-+B12^/I'E+ * /993+3/5,3003?21:S ,30, ,38?21:S3.0:19 7S38,32,3+-+:0-06:S1+3883,-93+:S1+3+.+I /0-8?/:+-+7( F5322-+:0-0600?21:S3.030:9;832; <3723?:93::-72/ : :370-8;:06,323=512,/+-+:0-06:S1+3883: / =-+,23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V30325-,323, ,389;8412-+:0-0600?21:S3.030' "( > /+/8I0-:.2/ ;:06,323-+:0-06:S /0-8?/:+-+7- B1273( )( >-,3+0-4-:323-+:0-06:S1+3883: : ;4/:083773?103+:-/ ;7S3++194A23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7?;81./80+-5;( &( >-,3+0-4-:323+A..384/.01232: =-+,23223/8-: /530:8-.0?103+:-/83( N8323,38?21:S3.0327S3++194A :0-0600?21:S3.030=/20/00607/+7:? ??4/0+-+7/0,30<"&.<)+-5; /? JE/8817Y2153+)%%&M H-+,:30=)%%&MBU::)%%&L(V3003./+-607/+7:?6+.030:I+3::1930?/2/,1.:M/88,3+0-,.8-9/?21< :0;2:19302<"C.<, M17.8-9/? S32+3.+I003:0-8$',)-'.#>"'.<)?18-0-:.3?21:3::32(H , =18,:19 6+,32<I7732/017:;,3081./83+-5; (O0:3+02/80?13+732,30:19-, /:S1+/83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:8-0032/0623+<3037+3::19]0=3-::63146?T/+,,1^+:_/8-+7](*, /0,34/.0-: /5.8-9/3+, /+ ]./ :]199/+-..3=/2300-8: /8041.6:(V3032: /83 5/2-/:S /5.8-9/3+,2-+732(V3003<3:03993:6042/=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;260M=512:;2</2+/ M=512:;2</2-+42/: /+, :/ M17= /+81./80=/20-8;4123<I ??:./,32:194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732JG-8</+.:17R/03:"\\\ME7,32)%%"M BU::)%%&L(O0<3:83.030?13+7.+I0032:370-8:?A2:9;83019]1532:300-+7](V </ /5.8-9/3+,2-+732: /83(O+=532.-8,30-860:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32=/ /8-030M17,309;,32412-?2-+:-??3081./830-80/ ;23,6:32360:8-??3+3( V30;4239=353,-::301? :385:/70-..3,30:/993:19;:-/0/2<3-,30 93,;23,6:32360:8-?? , /80/+:5/2(a :,30:385:/70 f./+:.s317:;4a2: :0f17:;0-80/.?;237-1+/80m+/:s1+/ /:S1+/80+-5;(K13+730=3232,3+:3+02/8346+.:S1+3+,3081./83+-5;30./+ =/-;"/)-#),,),30781</83.8-9/?21< :19./+4/003:/5= d /80:;,30;<-+,330781</80?21<839:/993+93, /.:8-.,-::3 1??8353:81./80JaAI3217E/88"\\#ME/88)%%%L(V3081./83+-5;30=/293,/+,23 12,3+=380/57SA23+, ;#$&-)*<)2$,$($,),*"2*"==#<4,'$'2*"(* &<$(.="<$,$&&)'M /0,3081./83+-5;3017:; :/993+=3+732./+ =/ :194,+"-()-*"2*$/)-&#),,)-/5: /.JY E/88)%%)L( 22

23 * :0-0600?21:S3.030=/2BU::J)%%&L,2A4030-+:0-06:S1+:<3723?3017 :300, =18,0-8/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(H-+,:30=J)%%&L=/2 7S3++197; /:S1+/ /,+12:.3324/ /2<3-,3093,.8-9/? /0-8?/: /84125/80+-+7(E/8817Y2153+ J)%%&L=/27;00,I? / ;2,307S38,32+12: :324/ ,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7M17-,3+0-4-: :;./ ;3+,3-+:0-06:S :I:03932:19/+0/:;5U23:3+02/83-,305-,323/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7?; 81./80+-5;'9-8SA4125/80+-+7M<323,:./?:/2<3-,M.1996+/8?8/ :-.2-+7( P"-(7<),93,,38?21:S3.030:192/??120323:=323201,380' >7-3+<3723?:93::-7:?3:-4-:32-+7/5]-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30]17 ]0-8?/:+-+7]93,=3+:I :.3412=18,( ` ,-./012</:32091, ,32-+7/581./82-:-.117:;2</2=30-412=18, , /3+, ,-7+/:S1+/8.8-9/? ( c3,].8-9/? ] , /.412;23,6:32360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(p/?? =18,32:370-8/883,3023,389; :0-0600?21:S3.0307S M93+,/:193+60,I?-+7/5,389;8J"L601532,30 :19/80327S120/5BU::J)%%&L17H-+,:30=J)%%&LM :A.?;; 1?32/:S1+/8-:323I ,389;8J)L17J&L-412=18,0-8,30:19/80327S120-E/88 17Y2153+J)%%&L( F /2<3-,305; A873+,34123: '7S3++19;.S3++3./2/ /+730/ ,-7-9?68:J-5; , / A2-+7/5.8-9/0-80/.L:./ :-+1319=512,/++;0-8:0/+,3+J-5; /06217:/946++L./+<8-3+,230(V-::3:/993+=3+73+3:./8:;4239:0-883: 53,=S38?/5*$'5$&.,"-)-( b3723?30$'5$&.," /,308/0-+:.3532<30$'5$m.-)m:19<30i2;? ?21.8/9323(X-< <30$'5$&)-)173+$'5$&.#>"'-30932,/78-7:?2;.( V305-: /9: : M /0/883:-,3253,, /9(N129; / ?83.: :/993+=3+732(X-.+I00324A873+,3,34-+-:S1+0-8<3723?30$'5$&.,"-Jc/_ /I"\\#dE,2-/+:3 "\\&dc-0_=388"\\zl'3+-+,-./ i ?83.: :/993+= :197SA2, ;.5/+0-4-:323,-::3( *+,-./01232<26.3:412;1??+;M /:S : :/993+=3+732M93+?;3+9;03:197SA2/053: :./?32 53,,-::3-..37;20/?0(V ,-./012023=153,46+.:S1+32'J"L M J)L.5/+0-4-:32-+7M17J&L /:S1+(V , :S &"((4'$&.#>"'M: /+0-4-:32-+7,3253,<26.3:412;1??+;( K ; : (F-8,30=/25-,/0/17:0/0-:0-..( R /:S1+,23-32: /:S :3+, /.32(* :/ /+, :300-+,-./012:300: : /883726??32(N ,-./ ,.6++35U :8A:338832= :0;38-73(V30036+,32:023.32/0-+,-./012329; :- 238/:S1+0-8,3726??3+3/5/.0A232,30?2-9U20:./81??+;: /:S1+93, JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( *5; :./ ,-./01232:19:./8<3: /83.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, /? (N12; :0-883,

24 53,=S38?/5-+,-./01232,3+0I?3+.19?83.:3:/993+= :: =32M9; :3003/0,304-+:0-8: :./? ;830;4239: ,-./ A873+,3412=18,' "( V3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+-+;:-06/:S / :/946++:A.1+19-:.3 412=18,( )( >2:/.T /+-:932412=512,/+.8-9/3+, /0-80/../+?;5-2.3+/06217:/946++( &( H1./835/2-/:S /?;,2-5( C( a ,-73+/:s1+/83.8-9/ , /0-80/.:19./+<8-7s3++194a20( #( a512,/+-9?68:3+js4?6+.0&17cl ,23+;:-06/:s /80( Y-00/05-A+:.32; /+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232M9;5-1??4/003? :1930:30093,+"-4,#),'$'2)-412; , ,32-+7 /581./82-:-.117:;2</2=30-412=18, , /3+, ,-7 +/:S1+/8.8-9/? (a5-:h+/541260: :03,35-85-= ;3+/9<-:S1+19.5/+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232M93+5-9;+AI3 1::93,/+0I,+-+732/5412=18,:19./+5U /+03412,3+81./83 :;2</2=303+( K/2/ ,5;20?21:S3.0=/2D*DOPQ/2<3-,3093,30039/0-:.:300+U20 K32:?3_0-53:1+K18-_-3:/+,*9?/_0:]4-+/+:-320/5412:.+-+7:?2172/ :;19; /:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232?;308/ ;3++,30+/:S1+/83( +-5;30M-<30I,+-+73+/5/09/+</:3232:37-/88=153,:/.?;-+,-./01232:19./+ +3,:./8323:42/+/:S1+/83,/0/:30017+/:S1+/83J </83L.8-9/91,38832( V-::3<I7732-:01272/,?;+3,:./ S :.+-+7:?2172/9930 ]P37-1+/8D8-9/03V35381?93+0`+,32Y81</8G/29-+7]JP37D8-9L(X-,3237-: -+,-./0123+3</2393,] ]:199-+: /4-:.33+=30(V3032= /7053.0?;; ,-./ :0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30( X-5-8-,3++32/??1203+<I7735-,323?;/2<3-,:19/88323,3327S &"((4')-?;?23: ,::_3+/2-3242/D*DOPQ:?21:S3.093,=3+:I /8.8-9/:;2</2=30/0,3032<3=15412; <"&.<, ,-./01291,388JQpb )%%&L(X-=/20/00607/+7:?6+.0-,3238/ /:.3,3562, :19/80327S P37D8-9(*5;20/2<3-,3=/ :A.0;<38I: =18,' a512,/+?; /3+,2-+732, , /8:/946++e a512,/+?; /.412;23,6:32360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/:: /8:/946++e a :0-06:s1+388./?/:-030=/23081./8:/ ;<a03?;+37/ :19:.I8,3:.8-9/3+, /.412;23,6:32360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32e 24

25 K21:S3.030=/20-8=3+:-.0; ,-./ ;<3:.2-53,-::3 412=18,3+3(V3++30I?3+-+,-./01232=/ /:S1+/ /0624;00< :3+ #7-C.-B),#$'5$&.,"-)-*JR/8I948)%%&L(a3+: ,; :;2</2=30:-+,-./ ; ?32/:S /7412;7SA232-:-.1T17 4;4239( `0:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32 R8-9/0-80/. R8-9/?; H1./8:;2</2=30 H1./8-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030 Figur 1 Prinsippmodell for lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer X-A+:.32/80:;;30/<8323-+,-./01232:195-:3281./83:/946++:A.1+19-:.3.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, S3++194A2-+7/5.8-9/?18-0-: ,832M :/90-,-7:195-17:;A+:.32/0-+,-./0123+3:./84;4239,3+-+:0-06:S /?/: /800-8;9A03,-::360412, (X ;.1+: :: :19?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/ /+,32-+,-./01232-:37:385./+ 5U2323,:./?412:0I2.-+7/5-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030:/90-,-7:19, , :A.38I:910./?/: ;7S3++194A2381./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(V3 :3+02/83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :: /8?8/ M.1996+/89-8SA / /80<323,:./?:/2<3-,( 0-8,30;30/< /-<26.30:;2</2=30:-+,-./012:I:039' T /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7 T +3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U29-+7 O+4A2: /T17T+3,0-8+U <U232/09/+< S /:S1+/8:0/0-: :680/03242/+3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91, ; 7SA233+4A2:037215: /5,3+:/983,3:;2</2= : ( B3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U :;93+0<26.0-,3/+0/003]=AIT2-:-.1]T ,3+0-4-:3207S3++19,3+4A2: /T17T+3,0-8+U ( b :3++3,3+42/t17t1??=3+:?3-832?;01412=18,'/0,/0/3+3-:0a22372/,32 81./83J-910: /:S1+/83,/0/17+3,:./832-+7/5781</8391,38832LM17/0 -+,-./ < /83<3: :?21:3:: ,-/81742/ ::-,3]1??1532]-<3: ::I:03930( B3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U ,2372/,3+-+,-./01291,388M-,3+412:0/+, /09/+= /< / /836+,32:A.38:323++;?23: /+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232(O0/ : , U M32 /0,3+:-: < /83<3: :?21:3::32M93+:153+42/T17T 25

26 +3,0-8+U ;=/3+]5/2:8-+7:46+.:S1+] / : /7412+/:S1+/83<3: ? ( O+9;03;:I:/993+,301-+,-./ U ?;32;30/< $#$&"(.,-$#)M,329/+562,3232,3+81./83:;2</2= =18, /3+, /0-80/.1??910,3+81./83-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+(aAI :;2</2=30.19< ,8/5-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-03093,4A2323+=AI:/98302-: /80M93+:8/5:;2</2=3017=AI-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-03093,4A232/0 81./8:/ :/++:I+8-75-:=/23+0-8:5/23+,38/53232-:-.1412;1?? / ( P/ ;20/2<3-,0-88/ :03+,-71?32/:S1+/8-:32-+7/5 -+,-./01291,3883+(V = ?21:S3.030;?2A536091,3883+( V ??7/53:19<A24A873:1??30032/05;20?21:S3.032/5:860030( N12=;? :325;2-+,-./01291, :;8/+70/0, / ; 7;42/91, ,38860?2A5-+7M+13:19-7S ::726++8/7412; /8-4-: ,-./01291,3883+4/.0-:.35+32;<-,2/-/2<3-,30 93,;:0I2.3+12: :-++:/0:-/2<3-,3093,;0-8?/::3:37.8-9/3+,2-+732( P/?? ,380-+)(*B"/)55)<)-(*4A2:03, U293237S3++197/+7 /5-+:0-06:S1+:<3723?30M93,53.0?;;.8/27SA235;2041.6:?;23835/+0381./83 -+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932(X-,2A4032#7, ,3781</83.8-9/91, ,0/+.3?;968-7=303217<3723+:+-+732: ;+3,:./8323,-:: / /80+-5;(*,3+,-)5>)=153,,383+,2A / ,; /83-+,-./01291,38832?;9-8SA192;, :?3:-380+;2, /83/55;20412:8/70-8-+,-./012:I:039(*,3++>)-5)=153,,383+7SA25- :; S3++197/+7/5-+,-./01291,3883+M4A25--,30#$#,)./? ,2A =303217<3723+: ;0/-<26.5;2-+,-./01291, <3: ::/993+=3+7( 26

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b j)%%)l7-293,</ / / /+,01< :32 412;41.6:323?;.8-9/:;2</2=30'"L,30./+A.31??: :8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/.d17)L,30./ /74127S3++194A2-+7/50-80/ /0-8?/:+-+7(b3773/ :I+3:23835/ :.:/993+=3+7( V :U ::/+0;&"(C$')-),301/ :3003, <"&.<:/993+=3+7(E80:;/041.6:?;<"&.<.8-9/:;2</2=306042/A+:.3019; :0I /:S ;7S3++194A23<;,3<"&.<)*60:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/.17 <"&.<).8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(V30329/+733.:39? /:S1+/80M30032= :;-B1273M?;/0,3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;300/20-8,38:937302/,-./83.8-9/?18-0-: /0-5M93+, , /:S1+?;/0-+-0-/0-53+3=/2 $'2)'3.:39?832?;/0, U <8-2.19<-+320d/80:;60:8-??:23,6.:S1+ / /03+:8-..1< ??<A27SA23:81./80JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 27

28 V3032: < :8-??:23,6:323+,3170-8?/:+-+7: /? M<;,37S3+:-,-7412:032.3+,317?103+: :02-,3+,3M: <U232/0,30./+5U23: :03253,3+:032.:/912,+-+7/5,-::301+U20 <3:83.03,3? ;,3+3(V30:I+3: ;=35,3/0, ??32?;,30 <"&.<)4125/80+-+7:+-5;30/0,3++30I?3: :0-06:S < ;4;0-8JE/8817Y2153+)%%&LM,/, /80,360:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/ ;003:3003: = /3+, /5,-::3 +A,53+,-75-:5-81??8353:( V3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;3032<2/.0, /2<3-,3093,781</83 9-8SA?21<839327S3++19./?-0038)[-NB:=/+,8-+7:?8/+4123+<U23.2/ fI2)'5.*:8f:194-..:-+144-: : ,32NB.1+432/+: SA P-1,3W/+3-21-"\\)(H1./8E73+,/)"=/253,48323 /+83,+-+732<8-00?3.0?;:193+/5,34;?1: :680/03+3:19=/ /5E73+,/)"JH/44320I948)%%)L(V30/+, ,+3,3-+-0-/0-530: /834125/80+-+7:+-5;30M=/ /:S1+/805-:030A.3+,3 3+7/:S /? JE,732948)%%)MY E/88)%%)M q16+7"\\[l(*9/ :; :.8-9//2<3-,.1<830+u200-8 /2<3-,3093,H1./8E73+,/)"JY "\\\MH-+,:30=)%%&L( b3723?30$'#,$,4#>"')<<*&.=.#$,),329i3< <-+,38:393, :?21:3::32M-<30I,+-+73+;:0I :0-06:S :8/+, ) (*, :U28-7,30;: :.9/::317+-5;/ : I:-:.323::62:32J<I /++3+4I:-:.-+42/: LM.19?30/+:3MA.1+19-:.323::62: : :0I2-+7:93:: ,832( *,3+: ,3+=/2<3723?3017:; /+53+,38:3-9-8SA:/993+=3+7M.+I SAT :/2<3-,J:3@37+/:0/9"\\\L17-412<-+,38:393, :?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7JBU::)%%&MH-+,:30=)%%&L( a3/83i948j)%%&l1??: / / /:s1+:?21:3::32, :.3412:0;38:3+/5<3723?30-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030(a6+5-:320-8/0<3723?30 32<26.0/ / ;-,3+0-4-:323.5/ :19: ;:0I2.381./ /0-53?21:3::32M17?3.32?;/00230I?3223::62:3232:3+02/83+;29/+:./8 <3: :0-06:S1+388./?/: /80JE9-+rF=2-40"\\#MG-8.-+:1+/+, E??38<33"\\\L & '.6++:./?:23::62: :23::62:32 91<-8-:32-+7:35+3 c3,&4''#&.=#-)##4-#)-93+32,3<8/+0/++300i?3.6++:./?:19,380/ :0-06:S1+3+=/20-87/ /,3+/5;?3+=30-412=18,0-8+I3-,332(c3, '),,/)-&#-)##4-#)-93+32,3<8/+0/ /87/ :/.0A232 2 I en kommentar til World Health Report 2000 uttalte for eksempel daværende bistandsminister Anne Kristin Sydenes at Styrking av institusjonell kapasitet har lenge vært et sentralt begrep i norsk bistand 3 Healey (2003) bruker betegnelsene knowledge resources, relational resources og "mobilisation capabilities". 28

29 J]:0/.3=18,32:]L: /,3+/ / :0-06:S1+3+(c3,("C$<$#)-$'2#)/')93+32,30<8/+0/++3023?3201/230/5 91<-8-:32-+7: :03,35U238:3/5,30,3< :19]_2-0-_/8_=/+73 /73+0:]( a3/83i948j)%%&l=/23+$'5$&.,"-,$<'0-($'2-:-00412:a.?;; :323 :?A2:9; :0-06:S1+388./?/:-030(*+,-./01232=/214035U20.+I <3723?30-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030M17,/?;019;032'"L412;C)#&-$/)]+-5;30]?;,3+-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+M17)L:1930,$<,.&412-:37:385;#,6-&),3+ -+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+(`0412, ;2,307S38,32,3+4A2:030-8+U /0,30; ,3+-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+,23-32:37538:;9I319.5/8-030 :19.5/+0-030M:8-./ :.3-+,-./01232/ /+5U ,3+,3(*< <2-+73::?A2:9;83+319=5/-+,-./ =5/,3./+<26.3:0-8-++( a-:012-3+</.,30; /-<26.-+,-./ :3230+u20:83.0:./?0-83+ <23,323:/946++:,3</ =512,/+412:0;17=512,/ :0I23 :/ (K;,3+3+3:-,3+=/29/+3+="#$,$/$#,$#&412:0;38:3:197S38,32<;,3 =5/:8/7:.6++:./?:19/+:3:: :./?38-717=512,/+17-= /, 9/+./+]:0I23]:/ (V3+?1:-0-5-:0-: :./?:412:0;38:3+:-32/09/+ :./87SA23,30:/993-:/946++:5-03+:./?3+3:19-+/ :./?3+3';:A.3 1<S / ::-7=3032:19./+03:03:53,-/.00/.38:32( RS3++:./?3+0-8: ::-7= = ;41260: /5 <3: ?-,30:1:-/83?;:/9939;03:19-+/0623+(V3+?2/.0-:.3 <30I,+-+73+/5,3+39?-2-:.3:/946++:.6++:./?3+32,32412/0,3+./+19:3003: 0-8-+: ]03.+-:.].6++:./?:19./ =18, ;8d, :./? :./?3+A.325;20]03.+-:.3]=3223,A993<;, /06217:/946++(c;83032;30/<8323:/946++:5-03+:./?3+3:193+:8/7: :1:-/ A2.6+:0(a3232-+,-./ A,53+, AIJaAI3217E/88 )%%)L( c103+:8-.</ / ,-./012:i: : ].'.<6,$#&* 9/2.3,:4A23::19/ /+/8I0-:.3:.S39/324128A:+-+7/ ,3 :/946++:?21< I SA17<U23.2/40(*0-8.+I ,-:.6:S SA17<U23.2/ , ??:/0041.6:?;<3723+: , ],)&'$#&*+$RSJaAI32)%%%L(V30323+<3723+:+-+7: ??=353:53,; 8/+:3233+/ ]4-k]M-, ,3+/+/8I0-:.3(V332< I3412/+.230-?1:-0-5-:93+( V3+?1:-0-5-:0-: :./?:412:0;38:3+<8360:/00412: (*,/732,303+ / ??4/0+-+7/0,3+32/55-:0M-/8834/88: :./?:4-81:14-:.?1:-:S1+M :38519, <3:035387;3+,3: :./?8-7?2/.:-:(V30<8317:;0-83+ <23,323:/946++: M:19<8/+0/ ;23003: /+0-4-:32-+7/5 :1:-/83412=18,17,3+:/946++:?18-0-: /5.5/+0-0/0-53,/0/17 :/993+=3+732(O0032:19-+,-./ ??32.5/+0-0/ I ?83.:3:/993+=3+732<;,3-+/06217:/ ,3:;2</23412,3++3 0I? (c3+?;:/9939;03+:19-, :./?8-73?2/.:-:3+M83532?1:-0-5-:93+-<3:035387;3+,3:19?18-0-:.?2/.:-:(*..39-+:032.19<-+/:S1+3+ /5+I8-<32/8-:0-:.A.1+19-: ?1:-0-5-:937/+:.3:;42/9023,3+,3(V30 =/2<-,2/000-8;7-3+:-06/:S1+,32,330/<83203A.1+19-:.3-+,-./0123+3<3:0;2M 93+:/8032+/ ,-./012?;9-8SA192;,30,6..321??17412: S3+ JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( 29

30 K1:-0-5-:93:02-,3+60:?/+0: / :./? :./?:4380M:; 17:; ,)"-$*"(*#.(+4''#=<.'<)22$'2(*+,-./01232=/2/880-,=/003+ :3+02/8?8/::-,3+1?32/0-53:/946++:?8/ M<;,3-,3+: ?3+, <26.3+/5932/5723+:303/+/8I:3532.0AI(V3=/2, :3854A8738-7?8/:: /883,391,3883+3: =512,/+?8/ <A241237;M,305-7S32+3./8832,3++129/0-53?8/ : ( *,3/ :0-,3+5/2,3+2/:S1+/8-:0-:.3?8/ M38832,30:19-,3+ :3+323,3</003+<8-2./80#6'"=,$#&?8/ C (V3+=/24A873+,39A+:032 JE9,/917X37738/+,"\\[L' "( N /5.8/ I,-739;8( )( E+/8I:3/5/ =/+,8-+7:/8032+/0-532:19./+23/8-:3239;83+3( N688:03+,-71532: /883=/+,8-+7:/8032+/ <;, A,53+,-7( &( E+/8I:3/5/88342/90-,-73.1+:3.53+:32/5/883=/+,8-+7:/8032+/0-532 J.1+:3.53+:/+/8I:3L( C( X/87/5,30=/+,8-+7:/8032+/0-530:1993:03+0I,-783,32910, <3:039039;830( c1,3883+<i7732?;30?1:-0-5-:0-:..6++:./?::i+(v3+2/:s1+/8-:93+,30 =3+5-:3: A2: :.T-+: (O++AI/.0-7M.5/+0-4-:32</2.6++:./?M:19329; /9<2/.0M?8/::323:-+: /:S1+/8-:0-:./+/8I:3T17<3: :.S3,3(YS3++19=383.S3,3+M:;538:19?; = ,,M=/2-+,-./ :3+02/8?8/::( c3, /+: / /8032+/0-53?8/ :91,38832( NA2:0.19,3+$'&-)()',.<$#,$#&)(V3+<I7,3?;0/ : ;8M:9; :.2-00/57/+73+MS6:032-+7/5.62:3+6+,3253-:17:0/,-7-9?215-:/:S1+?;:03,30( K;+12:.<83,300-8]:9;T:.2-00:]?8/ (N2/3+=380/++3+./+0.19:3+323,3+&"((4'$&.,$/)?8/ M,30:19?;"\\%T0/8830<83190/80:19]0=3 _1996+-_/ ?8/++-+70=312I](V30< ,0-8&"<<.C"-.,$/?8/ Ja3/83I"\\sL(V30<I7732?;Wt273+a/<329/:: /0-52/:S1+/ =/+,8-+7M:1930/8032+/0-50-8,3+:I+1?0-: :.T-+: /:S1+/8-030(@3+02/80:0;205/+7:8A: /:S1+17,-:.6:S /+7418,/5,380/.323M17/0,39/+73,380/.32+3-?8/ :?21:3::3+34A / /:S1+:195$-)&,)?; =18, 17604/88JE9,/917E9,/9)%%%L(V303293, ?8/ :-+ 93:0I ;3+,34129( *<3773,3/8032+/0-5391,3883+3f, /8-:0-:.317, /0-53 f=/2-+,-./01232<$,)'-+0323::3(*,304a2: ,-,30</2332:+/..19:9; : S6: ,3253-:(*,30/+,23412,-, /0-532/:S1+/ ?23: =380/ :0;38:33++-+,-./0123+3:03.+-:.T-+: (X-./ ,-./012:I:039327S /0-53?21:3::32(V30 :-:030-;230=/2,/17:;7-001:: :39?832?;,3++30I? :412:A.M :0+;2,307S38,3281./83<U23.2/40-+,-./01232JaAI3217 E/88)%%)L(H ;29/+-..3, :.3:?A2:9;83019=5/:8/7: 4 Synoptisk = et systematisk/tabellarisk oppsett av faktorer i rekkefølge 30

31 ?8/ :T17<3: ::I:039-+,-./0123+3:./8?8/::323:-++-(B;2,3003 :./85U234688:03+, /0-50f--++=18,17604/88f32,305/+:.38-7;:3 = ,3:./8:?-883( N2/3+023,S3./ :,307S3++19"\[%T17"\\%T0/8830:="#,("5)-'$#()3+ 3+,/93246+,/93+0/ (c3+:, /0-5323?23: / /:S1+/8-030M/55-:32?1:091,32+-:93+<3723?30192/:S1+/ =1,30(V3+<I7732?;3+1??4/0+-+7/5/0:/ <3:0;2/ /7323+,39/+7418,-7=30/58-5:412932M M412:0;38:3: :?2;.:?-88(V30039/+7418, /+38832<A2<8-3+: :/98307S :3+:6:M= ;1??-+13+=AI3233+=30JE9,/917 X37738/+,"\\[L(V ??4/0+-+7:19-..3</237SA2,30/593,,30 46+,/93+0/ / ,-./01232M93+17:;0/+.3+19?8/+8/703 :/946++:3+, S3++19:/946++:?8/ (* SA2,30/593,:3853 -,h </8<u23.2/ : :412/ :.32m+;17-42/90-,3+( V ;:3-+,-./0123+3:?8/:: ,3+:I+1?0-:.3M ;2,30 7S38,32, /0-53?8/ (c3,,3+7/+:.3 3+0I,-73?8/:: ?1:-0-5-: :.T-+: /:S1+/ :/90-,-7-3+:-06/:S1+,32,3+:I+1?0-:.3?8/ /80<302/.03: : </.38/70:0/,-69(V </23,323+,I2.303?1:-:S1+32(V3032 <3=15412+I/+:32(V3+/932-./+:.3?8/ : b/2_8/Ia6,:1+ AI3M17412; :I:039/ /:S ;8179-,832(X , ;: :?;,30/8S3+3M17412;4;42/9 +A,53+,-7=303+/5,3:9;: S6: /5.62:3+6+,3253-:( YS3++19,3+02/+:/.0-53?8/ :,3053.0?;7S3+:-,-78U2-+717,-/81793,,39?8/ <32A232(V303230/++30<3723? /0-5?8/ (*/,51./0?8/ SA2,3:19?8/ :370-80/8: :5/.3726??32-:/ (R1993+,373+32/:S /00-738/+,32 3.:39?832?;+3001??:8-.:5/.3726?? ::32:19<A :*3+.8-9/:/993+=3+7M,385-: :38412/883,3/+,23=3+:I+3+3:19-5/230/: 7S3++19:I+1?0-:.31702/+:/.0-53?21:3::32(c3,,3+2/,-./83?8/ :,302/,-./83:/946++:3+,2-+732(V ;:3412:37<3= :8-.0?32:?3.0-5*412=18,0-8,3932,2/9/0-:.3.1+:3.53+:3+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M :19A.+-+7/5=/5+-5;30+U2:032.0<3418.3,38/ ,38/+,-,3+023,S3 532,3+( V = /+7=-:012-3:195-:32/0,30,3:: < <U23.2/40/5+<)-)-+,-./01232JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(c3+, ,0; /0,30= <8-2932<U23.2/40/5+0--)-+,-./01232(*: $#$&"#.(+4''),6+,32:023.32,3+0I:.3:1: `82-_=b3_.J"\\)d"\\sL <30I,+-+73+/5,3:3+91, SA2-:-.-: /+:3M :9/.3M A83(V I?3?21<83932:19:3854A ?21,6:32053, =S38?/5+/ :./?M93+:1917:;</23./+1??,/73:176002I..3:93,,3+ :/ :./?3+:/+/8I:3532.0AI(`0:8-??/52/,-1/ :39?38( R8-9/7/::3230/++30(`0412, ,3i6:I+8-73i9-8SA?21< :032.3:/5/ f, SA2-:-.13+T./ /+73 31

32 / :+-+7:?21<83932(b3_.6+,32: A,53+,-7=303+/5;4; 2/,-1/ ;.8AfS(.&)*-.5$".M,$/$,6*$,MBS(a3232-+,-./ ,328-7=S38?(V3./+0S3+3: <U2323/5,306:I I,38-73M /5,30: /+7042/9-0-,17/5,30:197S32+34;2< :3+i781</80if :.S38842/3+4123: :/0:93,< :3+i81./80i(V30 :3+02/83=3232/0-+,-./01232./+5U23: /+-:93+412;1532:3003,3 i91,32+3i9-8sa?21<8393+3f:19.8-9/3+,2-+732f0-83+4/00</21781./ :0jn/8.=3,3+"\\\maai3217e/88)%%)l( )() H1./83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932 X-:./8/80:;:06, /3+, /? : , :0-06:S ,2-+7,325;2041.6:32,3081./83(V3003:./85-7SA2353,; ,-./01232:19./+<3: /83:/946++:A.1+19-:.3.1+:3.53+:32 /5.8-9/3+, S3++194A2-+7/5.8-9/?18-0-: ,832M:/90, /3+,2-+732(V30325-, :30+-+7/05-:19:/70:./8.1+: ::19="<$,$#&):I:03932M:197SA2/ :19?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/ /+<8-2:3+02/8(X ,3293,010-8+U ,30;.1<83-+,-./ :0-06:S1+388:;2</2= , d "(, ;8-:37:385; /83.8-9/-+,-./ //+0/738:3+/0,30-:37:3855-8:0I2.3,3+-+:0-06:S /?/: /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7d17 )(, ;8; ,-./01232:1917:;: :?3: ,3+ -+:0-06:S /?/: ;2,307S38,32;7S3++194A230-80/.81./ /0-8?/:+-+7( P /607/+7:? A2:03562,32-+7/ : :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932: ,320;=/=AI23835/+:412/2<3-,30 81./8093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L # R1996+/8?8/ <I7+-+7: c-8sa / E5, ,32:A.03-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :-5-8C)-)5#&.=,30:19- :0A2:072/,/2<3-,32, ,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7f /5=3+7-7/53+ 3.:?8-: /?18-0-:.23432/+:3T17:19:/90-,-7=/ ,38/5:-+ / /80( N12;4;7S3++194A20,3+A,53+,-7360:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/: ; 9/+03+.3: ?3+, : (c3,3081./80607/+7:? Aall og Groven (2003) hadde i tillegg med et fjerde institusjonelt system: forsikring. I og med at vårt fokus er mot lokale politiske systemer vil vi her se bort fra forsikring som ett av de sentrale institusjonelle systemene; og derfor konsentrere oss om de tre første systemene. 32

33 42/9:0;2&"((4')=<.'<)22$'2:19,30=380:3+02/83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :/912,+-+7/568-.3: /153212,+3,39;8: (X-,32332,30: < ,+30/23/8?8/ ,3+932,30/8S3203 C62'$'2#&"',-"<<)'M:197S38,32, ?8/:: /5 <I (*5;2412:0;38:3/5<I7+-+7: =/25-17:;-+.86, /80 0-8:I+93, =1:/+:5/ /.J3+023?23+A23+L( V30:-:03/5,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932f($<>%/)-'+"-/.<,'$'2)'f325/ /3+/+0/738:319/03+9-8SA?18-0-:.23432/+:35-85U ;:0I2.3 /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V :; ??:0;:/9:? /.41260:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/:+-+7(V/32, ;:3- :/993+=3+7,301? ;,3+3( E883,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:0393+3=/23+<8/+,-+7/5-).&,$/)17=-".&,$/) =/+,8-+7: (*?2/.:-:4239:0;2,3+:-5-83<323,:./?3+:19,3093:0 23/ :I:03930M:38519,3017:;=3232:032.3/9<-:S1+3219; ?21/ =18,0-8026:832910:/946++::-..32=303+:19./+.+I003: /3+,2-+732( V3023:I: :; /,B.'5<$'2#"-$)',)-,)(R1996+/8?8/ :U2,383:=309-8SA / =18,32: : M-,3+412:0/+,/0, ,-::301:I: /+73/ :19,23-32: ,8-+7/5.6++:./?d-9/ :; 4129-,8-+7/5532,-</:32031??4/ =18,+-+732( * , : :0-06:S1+3883:I:0393+3M32,303+8/ #)&,"-$)<<):I:03932:19=/2:0A , /+:-412=18,0-8:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7(V305-8:--+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:19=/2: ;, /20, :3.012M:1902/+:?120M8/+,<26.1:5(a5-8.3:I:03932 : /+03:0I23:-:01272/,/581./83412=18,M:19:/993+:30+-+7/5 '.,4--)##4-#)-5-8-,3483: U M,32,393:0:3+02/ :0-06:S :.32-M:.17<26.178/+,<26.(X-,3235-8: :0-06:S1+32:197S38,324125/80+-+7/5+6#$#&*$'+-.#,-4&,4-J53-32M=/5+32M 8-+S3+3001:5L5U JE/8817Y2153+)%%&MY2153+)%%&L( V3032:-5-8<323,:./? /8?8/ :193293:0]/.0-53]81./80+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(N12,3+:-5-83<323,:./?3+7S38,32,30:U28-7 <323,:./?-412=18, :.23,d /,17:;-412=18,0-83.: ,( N /8?8/ <I7+-+7: / ,23:I+8-7M93+ 17:;=3232=153,41.6:30?;481917:.23,M /,17:;3.: ,JE/88 17Y2153+)%%&MY2153+)%%&L(N3883:412,-::301-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: ,8320-,/0/ /,32.1<8303.:?8-:-000-8,3+.8-9/?18-0-:.3,3</003+17:?A2:9; :.3:./?03.8-9/3+,2-+732JE/8817Y2153+ )%%&L(V300332/ :19412=18,32:370-8,369-,,38</23?21<839: I /062./0/:021432M603+/0, :S </ ,3;2:/.320-8,3:/993+/062./0/: (V =18,30./+7SA23,30?21<839/0-:.;4;7S3++19:8/74123+: /,/5?21/ ,3081./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:/2<3-,30(a153,0I+7,3+/5-++:/0: :-5-8<323,:./?M.1996+/8?8/ <I7+-+7: :19./+./2/.032-:323::19.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732,/17:;/593223/.0-5./2/.032JE/

34 Y2153+)%%&L(*++:/0:-412=18, /+7: /0-:.<30-+73,33+,2-+732M :193+, ?32/062M:+A412=18, /:S1+32= :/00?;,/7:12, ,-::301:I:0393+3( )(& H1./89-8SA /80+-+7:19+A..38-+:0-06:S1+ X-=/ / : :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:1932:U /+0381./80+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V h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c-8SA ]Jc*RL+;32-432,93,; <8-<I7730+3,( Reduksjon i den kommunale miljøvernkompetansen 9-8SA532+83,32J,/5/2,304120:/003+12,+-+793,A ,315324A2-+732L =/,,3/+,383+7;00+3,0-8198/7s#?21:3+0-)%%%(*"\\Z1??=A20312, ,A ,315324A : : /89-8SA532+83,32(N2/ "\\Z0-8)%%%=/,,3)s?21:3+0/ /70+3,: : /8 9-8SA532+83,32M93+:&"?21:3+0=/,,323,6: :8;00:/993+: , /+,2346+.:S1+32M:8-./0</23)[?21:3+0/ J\" L=/,,3 0-8:/003+?32: ,: ,3/2<3-,3293,9-8SA:?A2:9;8JbSA2+U: )%%)L(V A52-7,30:/993/+0/ J ,3:/ L:19<8393, :?2172/9930]c-8SA ] Jc*RM"\[[T"\\"L:19</ ,:/993+/5+(V ;/+0//0023+,3+=/24120:/00:8-./0/+, ,3+?32:1+: /7030:?3:-380/+:5/ SA532+-)%%& U2=303+/5Z%?21:3+0( V /839-8SA ,3293,17:;3+&-$,$#&4/.012-,3+:/983,381./83 -+:0-06:S /?/: ;2,307S38,32;=;+,0323:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7( O24/ /c*RT?32-1,3+M,305-8:-?32-1,3+42/"\\%0-8"\\s,/+12: =/,,30-8<6,19A ,315324A : : /8 34

35 9-8SA532+83,32M5-:32/0,30;=/3+0-8: /,9-+-:02/0-5./?/: /+09-8SA ?30/+:381./80./+608A:3:012/ ?;9-8SA ;,30 JW/+:3+"\\"Ma15-.17W1=+:3+"\\CMB/6:0,/8:8-,"\\CME/88)%%%Ma15-.)%%%M E/88948)%%"L(V /2-+732:195-85U /+03412/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7d30412=18,:1917:;32, S3++19+I8-77S3++194A203 :06,-32/5412:A.93,.1996+/8.8-9/?8/ f ,)'/0:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+75/2:/00?;,/7:12,3+JY E/88)%%)L( Formal og organisatorisk kompetanse V3324/ c*RT/2<3-,30=/2<2/ :19-,3++3:/993+=3+732 /57SA23+,3M./+1??:699323:-4A873+,3:3.:?6+.032(K13+730=3232/0412/883 :3.:? ,3+/57SA23+,34/.0123+=5125-, =/20-8:/003+?32:1+ 93,30:U28-7/+:5/ SA532+( N SA?21< / :0( c1<-8-: /8-++:/0:-9-8sa532+/2<3-,30( O+,23, /83?2/.:-: SA ( O+,23, / /,30;</235U23: :;;5U233+ c*rt m+13:19194/0030<;,34129/8.19?30/+:317127/+-:/012-:..19?30/+:3( P"-(.<.19?30/+:3194/00324A2: : :.17+/ :./? ?30/+:3:197S38,32=512,/+9/+./+412:0;17<3: SA0-8:0/+, SA0-80/.(O0/<832-+7/5: : /89-8SA532+83,32<3:/00/53+?32:1+93,+/0624/ ?30/+:332,3+93:0;?3+</239; /+ :0I2.3:-+4129/8.19?30/+:3?;9-8SA ;,30(V ,8320-,17:; 3.:39?832?;/ =/27S3++194A20238/ /003+,3: :1?? <;,3/,9-+-:02/ /870+-5;(O03.:39?3832,3+:;./803 ]K : SA8U23] ,F X-,3237;3+,3:.183: <U232/ /8703,380/2?;h A032,32,34;2-++4A SA:?A2:9; =300-8?; /7;,-: SA:?A2:9;8JE/88 "\\ZL( V3+"-2.'$#.,"-$#&).19?30/+:3+194/ :./?17324/ <26./ :0I2-+7:T17?8/ : :./?19=512,/+ 9/+./+-532.: SA532+? (V ;.S ,3968-7=303+3 : :-:0323+,39-8SA532+?18-0-: ,832(V ;.S =18,3: :-:0323+,3.6++:./?:9-8SA32?;9-8SA192;,30M:19 4I8.3:9/++3+:9-8SA532+/5,38-+7M9-8SA, /03+3M23835/+03=AI:.183T17 412:.+-+7:9-8SA SA127/+-:/:S1+32(X-,32332, ;=/.19?30/+:319=512,/+9/+./+412=18,3:370-8+U29-8SA30M /+-:/:S1+3217/+,2381./83/.0A232: :/9/2<3-,:?/ ; 35

36 :-.231??: :300-+7/5, /839-8SA532+? ( V :1917:;7S38,32-412=18,0-8/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(O+ /++3+,-93+:S1+53,,3+127/+-:/012-:.3.19?30/+:3+32<3= $',)-'.#>"'.<127/+-:/012-:..19?30/+:3(V / :./? /:S1+/839-8SA532+/50/83217,380/.38: /:S1+/ M: :042/9:0;2: /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/: /? JE/88)%%%L( Miljøvern på den lokale dagsorden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c/+:0I = ;+"-,"<&) 9-8SA?21< <"&.<.1+03.:0(V300332:U =18,0-8,305-7S32+3< :19781</839-8SA?21<83932(H1./ =/25-:0:37;5U23 =380/57SA23+,3412;608A:381./8=/+, =18,0-860?2373,3781</83 9-8SA?21<83932:19.8-9/M <26.17<-1817-:.9/+7418,JF62+32"\\&M aai3217e/88"\\#l(v :;=ai: /01??: / /003+,30-80/ /0-8?/: :5/23+,381./ /5.8-9/?21<83930M :0-412=18, /,5-:3178/+7: A.1:I:0393+,2-+732:19./+608A:3:/5.8-9/0-:.33+,2-+732JE/8817Y2153+ )%%&L( L"&.<*("C$<$#)-$'2=/25U203+:3+02/81??7/53-,3081./839-8SA532+/2<3-,30M 17:;4A2c*RT :0/2030M17,/-237-/5,3:;./803+U29-8SA412:A.3+3 JaAI32"\\[L(O /5c*RT /2,/17:;A.081./8 91<-8-: SA:?A2:9;8M :0+;2H1./8E73+,/)".19?;,/7:12, JH/44320I948"\\[MbSA2+U:)%%)L(H1./891<-8-: U23/57SA23+,3-/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/: :0;00<;,3:19 1??: ,-23.03<-,2/ /830-80/ /0-8?/:+-+7JE/8817 Y2153+)%%&L( Endret kommunal praksis c3,3+,230&"((4'.<*=-.&#$# ,30;0/-<26.+i3/2<3-,: :19:-.032:37-++?;;23,6:3239-8SA<38/: (c*RT /2 0I,38-7?;, ,/0, /83?2/.:-:3+=/2<8-003+,230:U28-7?; ;,32JW/+:3+"\\"ME/88)%%%L' O+1??<819:02-+7/5+I317n9I.3]0-80/.:192;, / /:S1+:T17=18,+-+7::./?3+,30-80/.( O+A.3+,3/ /5?8/+/2<3-,?;9-8SA ;,30( 36

37 37 O+5-::A.+-+7+;2,307S38,32;0/-< :0I2-+7:532.0AI?; 9-8SA192;,30( V3+A.03/ ;2,307S38, /:S1+:T17=18,+-+7::./?3+,30-80/.32 /80190/801532(V3+A.03/ ;2,307S38,32=<.'<)22$'2<3:014A2:0/5/0 30:0120/+0/ ,32c*RT?2172/ ,3+4A2:034/:3+/5:3853 c*rt / sa532+?8/+3293,< :3+ic-8sat17 +/06223::62:?2172/9i(V-::3<3:01,/7S32+3/53+:0/06:,38:19<3: SA0-8:0/+,3+81./80173+:02/037-:.,38:19-++3=18,09; =383 <23,,3+/59-8SA532+? (Q4035/2,-::3?8/+3+3</ :19 6/5=3+7-73?8/+32M17.1< :A.1+19-?8/ ?8/+ 5/ f,305-8:-/0: :300-+7:,383+7S32+35/2:5/ JE/88"\\ZL(`01532?;"\\%T0/8830:.S3,,3,30-9-,8320-, /5, /839-8SA532+?8/ ?;023192;,32'A.053.0?; / ?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+M60?2A5-+7/568-.3:0I2-+7: ; :0I2.335/ /5=5125-,053,0/0039;817?8/+32< ??M1760/2<3-,-+7 #,6-$'2#/)-&,% / /5=5125-,0?8/ ,0/.?; 9-8SA ;,30< ??M412:0;00<;,3: /83 :0I2-+7:532.0AI17+I :680/02/?? / :0/0JE/88 )%%%L(X32.0AI:19C0-)&-.+,$'5$&.,"-)-M($<>%-)/$#>"'17-),'$'2#.'.<6#)<8-2?2A5, = /,0/00-<26./ (V3++30I? AI./+<-,2/0-8;7SA23, /839-8SA532+? S3++19:-.0-7M ,3293,-?2-+:-?? /730<3, A.0 93, /80M:/90-,-7: /730412, /+-:/:S1+:8U :0I2.3:(X-,323./+,3++30I?3+ :0I2-+7:532.0AI<-,2/0-83+;2:/.: ,3293,:0I2.-+7/53+3.:?8-: <U23.2/ SA532+? JE/88"\\ZL( Kommunal miljøvernplanlegging c10:86003+/5"\\%t0/8830:.s32,3017:; /+742/,3+0-, /0-:.:/00i/80194/003+,3i /2-)'#),)9-8SA532+?8/+32(O.:39?832?;, /+:?120?8/+32M<-1817-:.9/+7418,?8/+32M /+,:./?:?8/+32MH1./8 E73+,/)"?8/+32M3+327-?8/+3217f:19:-: :0f81./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32(*,3++3:/993+= / ,381./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+3+393:023835/+03M:38519,30-8:/ /7&% 412:A.3+3/80:;$&&)<32A232039/30.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7JY E/88)%%)L(Q / =/ S /?8/ :?3:-38017,3932/ / =/24;007S3++19,3A /89-8SA532+?8/ M3+03+,3003=/2:.S3,,-4129/5 :3?/2/03?8/ :19039/0-: ?;/++3+9; ,3+ 12,-+U ?8/ M:.6883,305U /5324/2-+732;,2/ 53.:832?;412; ; /8?8/ :19 7S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(Q /293,/+, /+03?8/+324/ , /839-8SA532+30M+398-7,3932:?23,03324/2-+732:197S38,32?21/.0-5?8/ :-5-8<323,:./?17/23/8?8/ :19412:A.32;0/ =3+:I+0-82-:-.1562, ;2,307S38,322/:174819M<8-2324/2-+7:726++8/ /0-5071,0(V30:197S3+:0;232;:3324/ :/993+=3+7M4123.:39?38

38 53,;7S3++194A2337+3?8/ :412:A.93,41.6:3.:?8-: /3081./8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( Kommunen som miljøpolitisk aktør O+/5,3./+:.S :03324/ /,30:-:030-;23093,.1996+/80 9-8SA532+/2<3-,M32/ /+7: :194;20-84A200-8: ::62:3217,32,3+81./83?18-0-: :: :03,3M=/235+30; :37 42/=153,:/.38-7;5U23: S3++194A2-+7/5+/:S1+/89-8SA532+? :;;.6++31??023:193+#)</#,)'5$2*($<>%="<$,$#&*.&,%-JE/88)%%%L(V /2-+7:1917:;7S38,32932:?3: /? M17:1932, <;,3-B127317/+,238/+,JY "\\\MF3-78/+,17E/88 42/: /.0A2M60412,23:7S32+317:;,3++/:S1+/839-8SA532+? ( a5-:,30-..3:/90-, :30412?8-.03+,3:/9/2<3-,938819:0/ m ]9a ]-4129/5910:02-,3+,3:0/08-73 :-7+/832(K;,3+3+3:-,3+./ ??412,23:/5,3+:0/ SA / ; /,-./89-8SA? : :/993+=3+732./+5U23932/9<-:-A:3++,3+7S38,3+,3:0/08-73? (c3+ +;2,3+81./83J/9<-:-A:3L9-8SA? <8-2<3723+:30/5:0/08-7:3.012? :39?38:/9432,: M<8-223:680/ /0, /83? ,6:323:0-823+:I9<18? JR8353+"\\sME/88948"\\\L(V3+0-8,38:9/::-53324/ B127317/+,238/+,+;2,307S38,32E73+,/)"T/2<3-,30M 17,309/+783+,3:/9:? /8317+/:S1+/83E73+,/)"T?21:3::32M 81./89-8SA532+?8/ /83E73+,/)"T?21:3:: /232 ;4; =AI72/,/5=12-:1+0/ /59-8SA=3+:I+-3.:-:0323+,3 81./83-+:0-06:S1+32M5-83+9/+783+,3/)-,$&.< A230-8/0,3 53: , SA <8-2JE/88)%%%L(*/2<3-,30 93,81./8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732,30033+:U2,383: =380/57SA23+,38U2,19; 0/93,:37JY E/88)%%)L( 38

39 :L -D=E2E4<?DD?14CBF=>>?1I?5 &(" 91,38832: , /091:4U23M=/517=/5-:(c1,3883+3<37I ,M17</:3232:37=32?;237-: , /17.8-9/?;,2-5J,5:(.1+:3+02/:S1+3+/5.8-9/7/::3217?/ /091:4U23+L(N12< /5 42/90-,-7.8-9/<3+I003::_3+/2-3242/NB:-+032+/:S1+/83.8-9/?/+38M*KDDM:19 /58/: A?-7:-:032/??120-)%%"(V368-.3:_3+/2-3+3:19?23:3+0323: 23?23: /8830/568-.3A.1+19-:.3M:1:-/ SA93::-73?/2/,-7932( RI101T? ,-::3< /00?;726++/59/+783+,3 2/0-4-:32-+7( )%%"L / / :-2.68/:S1+:91,38832M,5:781</83.8-9/91, ,1??8A:+-+7?;+13+4;=6+, (V S :3+02/833621?3-:.3127/+-:/:S1+32'c/kTK8/+_.*+: JcK*MFI:.8/+,L17 a/,83id3+023j`rl(ck*=/ /3+781</8.8-9/91,388:19.1<832 : /091:4U23M=/517=/5-: =6+,23;2M17:19 <3: /3+, : (JT?</:3232:37<8(/(?;60:8-??::_3+/2-30 Z 19< :53.:0MA.1+19-:.53.:0M/23/8<26.M :.33+,2-+732M ] ,3]60:8-??::_3+/ ::19i<3:033:0-9/0i412=512,/+ 60:8-??:4128A?305-8<8--9/+738/5/ /.41260:8-??:23,6.:S ,,38: ) T.1+:3+02/:S1+3+3-/091:4U )"%%M93,30;28-760:8-??- )"%%?; )%9-88-/2, /2<1+?32;2JY0D$;2L(F-8:/ ,/73+:60:8-??-1532./+0/5sY0D$;2( ;.5<)6*H)',-)</:3232:37<8(/(?;60:8-??::_3+/2-30]E)]42/F=-2,E::3::93+0 P3?120 s (V :? , / ,3+=5126+, ,3 4/ :0I2.-+7/ / , M=AI< :53.:0M17 93,8-03+<3.I / :3.53+:32/52/:.A.1+19-:. 53.:0JR18:=6:)%%"L(c3++3:.32M-,h3217./?-0/8329-+,2391<-83M17:?23,+-+7 / ;238/0-50:/.03(b :53.: U23=AIJ"# 9-88-/2,32-;2)"%%LM ?32-++<I U238/5J `@us(%%% -;2)%#%L(P ,71,0-87/+7?;3+327-T /823::62: /0-5023::62:-+03+:-53A M93+:/+, ? ;23,6:323-9?120/5=3+7-7=303+7S :.-++15/:S1+1723::62: :32-+7( O+327-<3= ?2-9U20<8-,3..30/541::-8323::62:3217.S32+3.2/40M I</2323::62: :0; )%v/5?2-9U /+7-;2 )"%%( Z c301,3+,3<3+i0032<3+35+3:odaecc$qkqd& s b/:3232:37?;9301,3+a/,ec&= 39

40 &() P37D8-9f:_3+/ B12,3+ &%%k&%%.9 ) (@19P$24-*:5-:32M7-2,3003+3:03+6< ,/0/93,=3+:I ,32-+7/5.8-9/ /80-B1273( Figur 2 Oppløsningsgraden i de globale klimamodellene P37D8-9 [ , :.+-+7:?21:S /5:_3+/ / B12,3+M ,3=/5192;,3217,3832/5E2.0-:53,3+ 781</81??5/29-+7( V ;8;.6++3/+7-6:-..32=3032.+I :_3+/ I:-:.3?21:3::32: /30-5;23192;,32(O+=3+:-.093,?21:S ;+3,:./83233.:-:0323+,3781</8391, ,30/8S /:_3+/ ; (O /8.8-9/: ,3..320I?-:.5-::3 0-,:?32-1,3242/,30781</833.:? M1701=153,9301,32<8-2<3+I ,3++3+3,:./ T39?-2-:.17,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7( E(=$-$#&*U#,.,$#,$#&V*')5#&.<)-$'2</:3232:37?;;'"L4-++3=-:012-:.3 :/993+= :-2.68/:S1+:T17039?32/0629A+:023:19: : : ;,3M17:;./88/:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:032M1781./8.8-9/:0/0-:0-..d17)L <26.3?217+1:32/5:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:03242/.8-9/91, ,3=-:012-:.3 :/993+= ;8/7342/90-,::_3+/ :.3412=18,(O9?-2-:.$ :0/0-:0-:.+3,:./832-+7</:3232:37,3293,?;41260: /0,3 :/993+= :012:./8/.8-9/9A+: /8.8-9/6042/ =-:012-:.3,/0/17:;=18, /90-,/M17:/993+=3+73+3</23./++I003:412,3:03,3+3,323+-,/7=/28/ ,30-,::32-32:19<3: /8.8-9/30( O.:39?832?;:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:023: ?;+12:..8-9/32'** T,"-#&.<.*<4+,,-6&&W,3032.8/23:/993+= /2-/:S1+32-9A+: :012:./8/864002I..1532B12,TE08/ /2-/:S1+32-,30+12:.3 8 Regional Climate Development Under Global Warming; finansiert av Norges Forskningsråd. 40

41 .8-9/30(O.:39?38?;, ]V3++12,/08/+0-:.31:_-88/:S1+] JBEQL(BEQ./+<3:.2-53::193+-+,3.:177-.8/23-+,-./:S /8.8-9/-B1273M93+,3032-,/7:0126:-..32=30.+I =512,/+BEQ 5-83+,23:37-42/90-,/M17,3293,= ,3+5-8=/?;+12:..8-9/( T >%,)(=)-.,4-WY184:02A993+M:?3:-380M=/2:012<30I, /30- B1273(c3+,303.:-:032326:-..32=3093,=3+:I+0-8<30I,+-+73+/ /03039?32/062(VBc*$930(+1=/ ?;.I:0.8-9/ :0-,(@SA039?32/ ;,/A:0-B12,TE08/+0323+=/2: ?;+12:..8-9/( T?#4,C-)5)<#)*$*I-&,$#W60<23,38:3/5:SA-:-E2.0-:?; /30-B1273M A?-7323:680/032=/2:0126:-..32=30( T F$'5*"2*,)(=)-.,4--#%%%91=(* b/:320?; ?32/062t17+3,<a2:,/0/42/198/7#%9;83:0/:s1+3242/=383 8/+,30M=/29/+-++3+P37D8-953,=S38?/539?-2-:.+3,:./ /9: ?32/ ,<A2::_3+/ ?32-1,3+"[Z%T)%#%(c/+=/2<8(/(41230/00 39?-2-:.+3,:./832-+7/5010/80"s </83.8-9/91,38832Ja/+::3+Tb/632 )%%&LM412605/8703:0/:S1+32-B12,TO621?/M+13:19=/ ,38:68-.3 :_3+/ B1273( X3,56'.($#&*')5#&.<)-$'2M /891, :19,3017:;./883:M<8-2,30+I /91,388:19-?2-+:-??30327/+:.38-.,3+781</83M93+:19 <3723+:32< <3: /4-:.192;,3,32,3+=/2=AI323 1??8A:+-+7(c301,3+</:3232:37?; / :./091:4U2391,38893, =AI1??8A:+-+7:19<8/+0/++30<3: ?172/4-:.3412=18,J+12:.34S38830_(LM :/993+93,,/0/42/,3+781</83.8-9/91,3883+M:19,3293,7-23+-)2$"'.<* &<$(.("5)<<(c/+41.6:3232,3293,?;.8-9/?21:3::3217:/993+= U24/ J:1917:; ,/73+:5U25/2:8-+7LM42/ / ? ;8-+732:19-39?-2-:.+3,:./832-+7(VI+/9-:.3 91,38832=/23+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?;198/7##k##.9 ) M177-2,3293,198/7"&% 532,-?6+.0?;8/+,:</:-:J:3P$24-*XL(H1./8.8-9/0-:.3:U ?172/4-:.3412=18,< ,2372/,4/+7301??/5,3+,I+/9-:.391,3883+M 3++-,339?-2-:.3< :19</:3232:37?;4/.0-:.3:0/0-:0-:.39A+:023( `:-..32= A2: :0.+I ;,3293,:012301?172/4-:.3 412:.S38832M,5:(-4S12,3217,/832M I:0T17=AI4S388::02A.( 41

42 Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km 2 O9?-2-:.17,I+/9-:.+3,:./ :0-9/ B1273(P$24-*Y6+,32-886:023232= :.S38832:1932-,3+0-4-:32053, +3,:./ , ,3+3M?;192;,303+,2-+7-;28-7 7S3++19:+-00:039?32/062( Projected change in annual mean temperature DD ED Deg C R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003) 9 9 R1, R6 viser til seks ulike regioner i Norge. 42

43 VI+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/5cK*17a/,83I:781</83.8-9/:_3+/ P37D8-9M=/ ,38::5U :_3+/ B1273(N12:.S /+ =153,:/.8-7.+I003: /502I..$=AI02I..:</+32-B12,TE08/+0323+( "% B3,:./ /8360:8/7-++3+B1273M:?3: ,<A2M17 23?23: ,3293,412:.S38832: /7412:;2</2=30:562,32-+7( c3+:3++3,:./832-+7/5a/,83it91,3883+?23,-.3232/0a ,<a25-8<8- :U28-742/9=32:.3+,3?;g:08/+,30M7-2+3,:./832-+7/5cK*T91,3883+,30 910:/00323:680/030'5-./+4;A ,<A2:U28-7?;X3:08/+,30Ja/+::3+T b/632)%%&l(k23,-.:s ,17039?32/06232, :;412:.s388-73( Y ,30.+I0030:0126:-..32= /:_3+/2-3+3M :-..32=30: /88383,,*Ja/+::3+Tb/632)%%&dNA28/+,948)%%%L' T $',)-')*/.-$.#>"')-*$*&<$(.#6#,)(),'6/5=3+7-7/5,-:.6:S :.3:./?03.8-9/3+,2-+732M /2-/:S1+-,30781</83.8-9/303+ +/ :-7</25/2-/<-8-030d T 4#$&&)-B),*"(*)'5-$'2)-*$*&<$(.=75-$/'/+0/738: /90-,-7/321:18 / M568./+/ J+/0628-7?;,2-5L1742/90-,-7360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32 17?/ J93++3:.3:./?0?;,2-5L326:-.23d T +)$<*"2*(.'2<)-*$*&<$(.("5)<<)')'9/+783+,3.6++:./?19:/993+= /0628-7$93++3:.3:./?0?;, , /J?21:3::3+3LM 9/ <3:.2-538:32/5?21:3::3217,;28-71??8A:+-+7-,3781</83 91,3883+3<-,2/20-8:0126:-..32= : /91,3883+3d17 T #/.&B),)-*U+)$<*"2*(.'2<)-V*/)5*,)&'$&&)')*+"-*')5#&.<)-$'2'9301, < / /83.8-9/91, :0/,-76+, ?2A5-+7( &(& c68-7= /8+3,:./ V /83.8-9/:_3+/2-3+39;-..3:33:?;:195U25/2: /90-,/M 93+)#,$(.,)-* /90-,-733+, ?32/062M+3,<A2M5-+,17 3.:02395U2-B1273@*X3,412<3,2-+717I /5781</83.8-9/91, ,:./832-+7M5-8+I317412<3,23,33:0-9/032<8-?23:3+0320(H-.3538M, :-,/ : /:_3+/2-1412B1273:19 -+,-./01291,3883+./+0/607/+7:?6+.0-M93+91, :; ?/::3: +I3.8-9/:_3+/2-3217< ( R8-9/:_3+/ B127342/P37D8-9:19-,/7=/24;0093:01??932.:19=30 <I7732?;3+,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/5,3+781</83cK*T91,3883+(V /91, <8/+0,3: /0-5091,32/033+,2-+732:/ , /+,23M17:1923?21,6:3232,/73+:.8-9/-B1273<3, /5,3/+,23 91,3883+3J,5:(/09/+53,,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/591, ,/74;2 23:680/032+U201??0-8,3+4/.0-:.3:-06/:S1+3+L(H-.3538:I+8-77SA2< ?32-1,3+)%&%T)%#%.8/233+, B1273(c3,3+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?; ##k##.9 ) M ,30],I+/9-:.3]:_3+/ ,-32412/ M17412 ; ?23,-.:S /3+, ,-./01291,3883+M=/25- <3=15412;7SA23I ,:./ /59/032-/830(@19,38/5 "% c1,3883+3?21s-:323217:; ,:?32-1,32jck*')%&%t)%c\17a/,83i')%s"t)"%%lm93+, :.2-53:-..3:0a2:0<30i, =18,0-8412:.s3883+3:191??:0; , /83 +3,:./ JK32: ,,3838:3MO-2-.NA28/+,MP37D8-9)%%&L( 43

44 53,; ,,38532, ,3+U ,3532,-? "" (V3++3:5U ?18/:S1+:9301,3+0/2,3293, ::72/,=3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.3 412=18,M,5:(:012:./8/01?172/4-: M :U = ( V3003<83562,320:195/+:.38-7;7SA23-30]153+42/T17T+3,]T?32:?3.0-5( /5<"&.<)*5.,.* *&/.<$,.,$/)*/4-5)-$'2)-/581./8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,-.19<-+/:S1+93,:_3+/2-3093,3+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?;##k##.9 ) (V ,-:.,-:.6:S1+: ;-,I<,3+?;-,3++32/??1203+( c3+,3032.8/20/081./83< /+a.36:-..32=303+-9/ I JS42(<3:.2-538:3/56:-..32=301532L(X /+0I,3= /?/2/93023:19,30?103+: U23=3+:-.0:93::-7;412:A.3;+3,:./ /80(E8032+/ ;<26.3,3<3237+3, ,-3+3?; ;( O+81./8S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/</:320?;.5/8-0/0-5]:I+:-+7] ,3 30/<83203:_3+/2-3+39;-..342/9:0-883:: :./?38-734/.0/(X-./+= :-=512,/+,3003./+7SA23:-,30/8S4A2,3032?2A5,60?2/.:-:M:-,3+,30 /5=3+732/50-87S /:S ?30/+:381./80(V305-84A8738-7= U ;<3+I003,3++30I?3S6: ?/2/0-5:/993+=3+7( H ,32:023.3/0,30/09/+412:A.32;41230/81./83562, (S6: /5,3144-: /:_3+/2-3+3M./+=/3+532,--:37:385(E+,23.8-9/3443.0?21:S </.3938, /281./ :: /:_3+/2-3+3Jb/+7948J-+?21723::LdQob )%%&LM:/90-,-7:199/+ 237-:023232/09/+81./80-..3:I+3::_3+/2-3+34/+7321??81./83412=18,71, /0, ?23,-.:S /+03;<26.3-?2/.:-:(R8-9/:_3+/2-3+3<62,30/ =3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.35/2-/:S1+32:1932<3:03993+,3412,3081./83.8-9/30(* 910: ]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8+U ,:./832-+7/5.8-9/,/0/:19 <8-27S @Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.030M5-83+]+3,3+42/T17T1??]0-8+U <-,2/+3001??0-8:0A22391<-8-: /80(R8-9/:_3+/ /+7:? /+: M53,/0,3032:+/..19?23,-.:S1+17< <38/:03093,:0126:-..32=30M17:19-..3:./8237+3::195U25/2:8-+732M93+:./ ?103+:-380,/ / /80-8?/:+-+717? (X3,81./8,-:.6:S ,34239:/ /:_3+/2-3+3./+9/+A.3<;,3412:0;38: :3853-,3+0-4-: ,:?A2:9; /3+,2-+732( *5;201??:300/5:;2</2=30:-+,-./ /3+, :8;/09/+-,3+4A2:03+3,:./ /5:;2</2=30-+12: <3+I0032+3,:./83203 P37D8-9T,/0/</:320?;D*DOPQ:0-8+U29-+7M93+:9/+-4/:30181./80412:A.32 ;41230/37+3S6: :19,-: ( R8-9/?/2/ /+726??323: ??32' - 039?32/ ,<A2-5-+, 11 Gjennomført av Bård Romstad og Heather Tompkins ved Cicero. 44

45 O.:02395U2-++7;2:19:U =532./03712-(V30.+I0032: /, /56:-..32=300-8?23,-.:S =532./03712-M:/ = ; +3,:./8323,/0/9/032-/ ;603+;7SA239/032-/ , : / /83:;2</2=30:562, ( Q)(=)-.,4-* * ;5U2360:8/7/5:012:./8/039?32/0625/2-/:S1+32M:;4A ?32/062 =AI, =/530?;81./80+-5; ") (L.=#)*-.,)'*3*9;830?;=5129I3 039?32/ ,232:3793,=AI,3+f32-,3+3,32: /5/091:4U23+ -7S3++19:+-00_/%MZ#72/,32$"%%9J,5:(/0039?32/0623+/50/21??1532L "& ( F39?32/0623+/50/29-+,2353, ,0A228640( c3,607/+7:? ,-3+3-,30+u293:03]532,-?6+.030]m./+9/+6042/81./83 < /5=AI,3412:.S38832./+:.S ?32/062532,-32( "C * ,: =AI,3412:.S38832M5-8,3017:;5U23/.06380;< ?32/062532, ? (V /+:.S393:0 :/++:I+8-7/0039?32/06232./+S6:0323:53,=S38?/5932.5/8-0/ , M,329/ ?;238/ :.S ;,32M</:320?;3+.19<-+/:S1+/5412:.S38832-=AI, /8.6++:./?19+129/805U260:8/7 81./80( 1)5C%-* H1./83+3,<A2:93+7, </2360:8/7/ /83+3,<A2:4380M93+17:;,3 01?172/4-:.3412=18,3+381./80(@ ?32/062M5-8, ,3380:3005U /+0;< :;+3,<A / M : :.S /, (NA2: :032,3060:/00= :.I773:19<8-2S6:032-+7:4/ :19./ :-++(V305-85U23 5/+:.38-7;.5/+0-4-:323,-::381./83412:.S3883+3M:;=325-8, U23 :+/..19-)<.,$/)412:.S38832:19<3:.2-53:.5/8-0/0-50</:320?;81./8324/2-+7( c :.-+:0-0600jvbc*$930(+1lm-:/9/2<3-,93,bxom/2<3-,3293,; S6:0323$+3,:./832323:680/03242/,I+/9-:.+3,:./ ,;< /83 1<:325/:S1+32(V303260/2<3-, :_3+/ /++4A ?32-1,3+)%&%T B1273M17=/23+1??8A:+-+7?;"k".9 ) ( < ,-./:S1+32?;.8/ /83412:.S38832(K21:S :; < , ,<A2:19:+AJ:3*P$24-*[LM93,:/993 1??8A:+-+7:72/,(V /< : :39?38./ : /83562, /5:;2</2=30J4/:3)LM,32:19932,30/8S3203< :?A2:( 12 Med unntak av situasjoner med inversjon, der temperaturen stiger med høydemeterne. "& =00?'$$930(+1$-+,3k(:=098 "C YS3++19:+-00:=AI,3? :-@0/03+:./20532.:E23/8:0/0-:0-..' =00?'$$^^^(:0/0./20(+1$*K@$e91,683wE20-_83:d/_0-1+wE20-_83(?6<8-_@=1^d*VwC#" "# X=/abXT91,3883+'=I,21817-:.91,388412/58A?/5+3,<A2-<3: ,<A2:4380( 45

46 Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003) Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002). V30=/217:;<8-00< ?23,-.:S ,230=I??-7=30J"17#,/732: 5/2-7=30L :-030/53.:0239+3,<A2M412605/87039;83:0/:S1+32J@./ ( )%%)L(@-,3+,3032.+I /0-50:016:-..32=300-8< /53.:02395U2M <8-2,-::3.8-9/?/2/ ?? /0-53+,2-+742/,/73+:+129/8J:3P$24-* \L( 46

47 Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002). V-::3< /+7-53:3+08-7<3,233:0-9/0323++D*DOPQ:9-,,38532,-32 </:320?;:_3+/2-3093,1??8A:+-+7:72/,##k##.9 ) (X3,<26./5,-::3 < /80M./+9/+4(3.:(41230/ , /5,3081./83 9A+:03230:19<8-2<3:.23530J/)-$+$#)-)]*+.<#$+$#)-)*)<<)-*>4#,)-)LM?;</.726++/5 81./8.6++:./?193.:-:0323+,3+3,<A2:T17/ :9A+:023(N123+, ,<A2:19:+A< ?32/062562, I00-73; (K;,3+ 9;03+./+9/+23,6:3234/23+412/0:_3+/ /80<8-21??4/0030: / I/+: < / :0( F$'5* V30.+I0032:37:0A2236:-..32=300-8< /53+, ,M17,/ :?3: /53.: ,J<;,39/.:-969:0I :L(V /83.8-9/91,3883+3=/25/+: ;: ,3:032.3:035-+,3+3 Ja/673+17B12,3+7)%%"L:-,3+0-,:1??8A: < /03.: ,M:191403</23./+5/2342/ ?/2 47

48 3.: ,: ::/+0; ,3+81./8:;2</2=30:562,32-+7(*.8-9/:_3+/2-3+3:19<8-2?23: ,/7M<8-2?23,-.:S A : /53.: ,< /:/++:I+8-73:/993+= S3++19: A ?32/ ,( "Z =A:03+M<3237+3:,303+A.+-+71??910&%?21:3+0-=I??-7=303+/55-+,26+,0)% 9$:(O8832:5-:32< /0: ,32:19-,/73+:.8-9/ : 1532: /+7-;230M ?? ,1<<380:; I:03+ /5F219:17N-++9/2.M17+13:S38, ,1<<380:; :03+/5.I:03+ JP37D8-9)%%)L( J0-,8-7323B12:.bI773:0/+,/2,-:32-+7:2;,L-:/9/2<3-,93,VBc*$930(+1M ,=3+<8-..?;<3: /80-8?/: /8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,( </.726++/5,/0/42/s%T"%%9;83:0/:S I..9;8-+732( "[ P3432/+:3532,-3+ 1??7-27S3++19: ,=/:0-7=30J9$:L-8A?30/53+?32-1,3?; M93, 7S3+0/.:-+0325/88?;#%;2M179;80"% </..3+-,30:0/+,/2,3+./8832 ]48I?8/:: ]J:012;?3+48/03L(* ,3232:0/+,/2, =512,/ ,-3+3./+S6:0323:93,=3+:I+0-8' "(,)--)'2,6=)*US,)--)'2-4B),#2-.5SVd:0/+,/2, :8-+S32: ?172/4-17=AI,31532=/530M177-2,3293,5-+,532,-320-8?/::3001?172/4-d 17 )( /$'5-),'$'2d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k993+, ,<A2?329;+3,M93+:+;2 9/+:-32/0+3,<A23+5-8A.393,4123.:39?38)%?21:3+0./+,305U ; 238/ ,/73+::-06/:S1+(N12-..3; A,53+,-7M./+, /+:.S317:;5U23=3+:-.0:93::-7;41230/3+I )<.,$/)-$'2/5 "Z F39?32/062A : /091:4U23+M:19,3293,./+7-60:8/ ,J L(N12=18, ?32/ ,51.:323.:? ( "s O24/ /"\\)T12./+3+?;B12,T53:08/+,305-:03/0,33.:-:0323+,3:0/+,/2, /2 0-8: ,34/.0-:.3412=18, ;,32( "[ 48

49 ?23,-.:S1+3+3M4123.:39? = /,3+, ]:5U20:0123]M ]:0123]M]9-,,38:]38832]:9;]J4123.:39?38-412=18,0-88/+,:7S3++19:+-0030L(X- =/2, S1205-,323:?3:-4-:32-+7/5,3++30I?3./03712-:32-+7+;25-?23: <26./5.8-9/?/2/93023-:;2</2=30:562, ( Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå K/2/93032 O+=30 H1./83S6: F39?32/062 N21:0$0-+3,/732 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, W/ X3.:0:3:1+7 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$;2 W/ B3,<A2 N23.53+:/53.:0239+3,<A2 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3- B3,<A2:-+03+:-030 E+0/88993+,2-+7$Z0-932 W/ B3,<A2:19:+A E+0/88993+,2-+7$9+, W/ X-+, X-+,-+03+:-030 E+0/8893+,2-+7$:3. W/ N23.53+:/53.: , E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3-49

50 SL >D=E25=D32F;=;C C(" c-8sat17<u23.2/40-+,-./01232 X;2/9<-:S1+32;:.-:: ,-./012:I:039: / :0/+,32 <"&.<,M175--,3+/+83,+-+7<I773?;3+194/003+, /062:19190/ /2-/+032/581./839-8SAT38832<U23.2/40-+,-./01232(V3:: ,303+=38832 <3:.S3, /062:1919=/+,832324/ ,C-4&)'/5,3:/993 -+,-./012:I:0393+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(V305-8,324125U23/57SA23+,3;4; 03: :8/ ,-./012:I: /0-8?/:+-+74A ,38-7 /+<34/8-+7/ I?3:I:039./+7-:( K;/883+-5;32=/2,30:-,3+<37I++38:3+/5"\\%T0/8830?;7;003+:012/ U29323?23:3+0/:S1+/5)s%($<>%T17C0-)&-.+,$'5$&.,"-$'$,$.,$/42/)\8/+,93, (N3883:412, ,-./ / /0, ,30/8S3203M17/0/883412:A.32;:3873: /5<3723?30<U23.2/ :19,3+]23003]JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( Årsak-virkning tilnærming O0:3+02/809301,-:.723?-9/+73/5,33.:-:0323+,39-8SAT17 <U23.2/40-+,-./012:I: ,3+:;./803TK3("5)<<)'JQODV"\\CL(B1273 5U208/ ; ,3++30I?3+-+,-./012:I:03932JaAI3217E/88 )%%)L(*+,-./ I003: ,,-3+:/993+=3+73+,3;2:/.:T :.S3,3'93++3:.38-7/ =7/$-&)-JKw?23::623L9-8SA30M17,3003 V : ,32(* ,30230I?3+31?323232QODV93,3+ 4S32,3d=-)#,.#>"'#$'5$&.,"-JKw?324129/+_3T]-+,-_/012:4126:3-+?324129/+_3 35/86/0-1+]L(V /870317$38832/ ?; :TM0-8:0/+,:T17 23:?1+:-+,-./ ,=3+:-.0;35/ I038:3+0-8QODVT 8/+,3+3:9-8SA? SA=/+,8-+732J] /8?324129/+_3 ($<>%/$-&'$'2)')J*w-9?/_0:L(V30-++3<U232/0,3+1?? , =532032< ,3+439T83,,303T?KTM :/008/+7:3+:/993+=3+73+,3 ;2:/.:T :.S3,3Jb1::38"\\\L( 50

51 Påvirkning Tilstand Respons Informasjon Menneskelige aktiviteter Energiforbruk Transport Industri Landbruk Annet Påvirkning Ressurser Miljø- og naturressurstilstand Luft Vann Land Levende organismer Informasjon Sosial respons; handling, vedtak Økonomiske og miljøpolitiske aktører Offentlige organer Privat virksomhet Husholdninger Internasjonale organisasjoner Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994) Sosial respons; handling, vedtak =153,:/.?;+/:S1+/80+-5;J:34123.:39?38c-8SA532+,3?/ "\\)d QODV"\\CdB12,-:.c-+-:0322;,"\\CL(V =532017:;<26.0:19 91,388?;8/ /4-:.3+-5;32M:?3:-380?; ;M17,/412 <U23.2/40:?A2:9;8-:03, /5723+:3034I:-:.39-8SA:?A2:9;8(b ,38:3+3/5/+53+,38:3:192;,30=/293,4A20?21<83932(K;.1996+/80+-5; ,388=/29/+412:A.0; M93+: <I7732?;, ,3;2:/.T :.S3,3+(V :03 532:S1+3+<3:0;2-/09/ ,3.8/::-:.39-8SA0-8:0/+,:<3:.2-538:3+317:; ??0-8(V ?/: :39? ,30 Lokale bærekraftindikatorer O0:?3: ?;"\\%T0/883032,3+194/003+,3/ ; *<"&.<)* <U23.2/40-+,-./01232(V30=/25U /:S1+/ T3++I023+,- -+,-./ :;17:-(c/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L93+32/0,3032?;,3081./83+-5;309/+./+5-:30-853: /9:.2-00,3:-:03;23+3M17:;53,/0 -+,-./ /.0-:.320/00-< <3: :?21:3::32(O M93+ 17:;.2-0-: /953.:03+/5,30:0123/+0/ /83<U23.2/40-+,-./ /0, / =/2:.S3,,-?21:3::3293,+"<&)<$2* 5)<,.&)<#)Mc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L5-:320-89/+73?1: /2-+732M :?3:-380-O+78/+,(c ,380/.38:332-:37: /2/+0-412:6.:3:: -+,-./ = /5324/ <26.3+M-..3</ /5 -+,-./0123+3(a3232,30/80:;-..3:;9I3;5-:30-8( O0/ :.:?A2:9;832-+,-./0123+3:+.&,$#&)<U23.2/40-++=18,(*..39-+:0- O+78/+,32,309/+733.:39?832?;-+,-./012:I: ,=AI:068-.1??4/0+-+7 /5781</8<U23.2/ M17:197S /+7042/3+4/ :5/28-7 1??4/0+-+7JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(V30./+5U23/ ,93, :;+;2,307S38, /581./83-+,-./ /0-8?/:+-+7M17?;:/9939;03 51

52 :19?;? ,30,/5-.0-7;53-31??-++:? S , :?21:3::321??910-++:?-8842/4/73.:?320-:3( Bruken av lokale indikatorer *+,-./01232./+03+.3:<26.0-9/ :/993+=3+732(V30./+5U23412; 0I,38-77SA233+42/90-, : M;7-3071,0<-8,3/ :0/+,M ;=18,3237+:./?93, /50-80/.17=/+,8-+7(B129/80 5-8,305U23:+/ I?32.'.<6#)-JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(j+./ S38,3223+0$'+"-()-)'5)/+/8I:32' *+,-./ ;237-: ; :0/+,M4123.:39?38 9-8SA0-8:0/+,J]9-8SA15325;.-+7]L( *+,-./ ;0I,38-77SA : J] :/+/8I:3]L( *+,-./ ;:/ ?23:0/:S1+93,/+,23Ji<3+_=9/2.-+7i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aAI3217E/88)%%)L' *+,-./ $'+"-(.#>"'*"2*5)C.,,',305-8:-0-8 =18,+-+7::./?3+,3/2<3-, /83/.0A232( *+,-./ ="<$,$#&:0I2-+7',305-8:-93,418.35/8703:19, :03 9;8726??3+17< ,+3,3:/993+=3+732,32,307SA23: ?2-+:-? ?18-0-:.3/ ( *+,-./ ($'$#,-.,$/:0I2-+7',305-8:-,32,30-:0A22372/,32 /,9-+-:02/:S1+3+:1932=153,/.0A23+J4123.:39?3853,.1+:3.53+:562, / <I77-+7:/8032+/0-5L93+, /

53 <2-+73:-++412;:/+.:S1+323,30/,9-+-:02/:S1+3+=/27S120M ; 4/0039-+, ,30/8S3203?18-0-:.3/57SA238:32( Kalde og varme indikatorer R19<-+/:S1+3+/5,-93+:S1+3+3]/+/8I:30I?3]17]:0I2-+7:93::-73 :/993+=3+732] <26.:192;,32:195/ /+7:3+ :./8/ :.+AI/.0-7=3017h+:./8/:197S38,32,305-./+<3037+3:19 -)#"'.'#(a5-:-+,-./ ; =/+,8-+7m-..3</235u ,3M32, /0,3+32+AI/.0-7d-+4129/:S1+3+9;17:;:./?3 -)#"'.'# =1:, ;8726??3+(c;8726??3+9;412:0; /:S1+3+17< ;6083,3=/+,8-+7?;</.726++/5, /:S1+3+(V30./+-,3++3:/993+=3+73+:.-883:938819&.<5)17/.-() -+,-./01232Jc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.&"\\#L(V3]./8,3]32-:-+23+,I2.3, /78-7,30/8S ,3M /8,30-8/0,3:./?3223:1+/+:=1: / ;8726??32(V3]5/293]7-2,3++323:1+/+:3+M S3+7S38, 6?23:-: ,3..3+,3412,3:/993+=3+73+3,3-++7;2-(* ,32=/2 5-5-:0=512,/+,368-.3/+/8I: /+238/0323: /,32/523:1+/+:( K13+730=32327S3++19-,3/80I?3./ ;5-:3=512,/+,-::3238/:S1+3+3&.' 1??023(*?2/.:-:5-89/+4-++3:01235/2-/:S /??( n./8,] (TQ2>5=CI?5 c-8sa15325;.-+7 P30+-+7:/+/8I:3 b3+_=t9/2.-+7 R1+:3.53+:562,32-+7 O5/ P/?? ,?F4;2;F n5/29] Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995) Ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp O :.-883+;2,307S38,3281./83-+,-./012:I:039327;2?;,305-./+./ /80?32:?3.0-5',305-8:-=5125-,0:I: ]"/)'+-.3"23')5]38832 ]')5)'+-.3"23"==](V-::301=153,91,3883+3/581./83-+,-./012:I:03932=/2 68-.=3032<;,3+;2,307S38, : <26.:192;,32JS40/< ,32L(V3+4A2:03./ S32+30I?-:.]./8,3]:I: ;7- = , / /85/2-/:S1+?;30+/:S1+/80+-5;(c10:/0032,3+ /+,23./ ,-./012:I: ?23730/5;5U23]5/293]17932,30/8S3203?;308/ /4-:.+-5;M412,-,-::37S ;-++7;-3+81./8 <3: ::/993+=3+7( 53

54 Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer V/0/ *+,-./01232 b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c1::17b )%%"L(V3++30I?3+-+,-./01232<83 4A2:00/00-< %&"'"($)': ,,38412;41260:34-+/+: :32 )% ,/$&<$'2#.-C)$5412;562,323:;2</2=30?;+/:S1+/80+-5;- 412=18,0-84/00-7,19174/00-7,19:,2-53+,3412=18,:190A ,3 )" JO5/+:)%%%Mb "\\)MR388I17E7,32)%%%L(K;($<>%192;,3032 1??-412<-+,38:393,]F=3Y81</8@ @9/88*:8/+,V35381?-+7@0/03:] J@*V@L-b/2</,1:M"\\CJR/8I948)%%&L(*)%%&<83,308/ ,-..93,< :3+]O /8X68+32/<-8-0I*+,3k]M17,30<83?23:3+0320< /5-/80#C-+,-./ )&#8/+,(*+,-./ ?? = I?3:;2</2=30,30320/8319' :.M :.M <-1817-: :.3:./?0J/+021?173+L(* =18,32:I: /+0/88 -+,-./01232:19<3: /0620-8:0/+,3+JS40/<3883+?;+3:03:-,3L( V :A.3+3?;; :;2</2=30:-+,-./01232?;9-8SA192;,305-:32/0, :83.0:./?93,K@PT91,3883+(c/+0/293,<;,30-8:0/+,:T17 20 International Monetary Fund (IMF) har utviklet et system som består av fire indikatorgrupper: "Indicators of external and domestic debt". "indicators of reserves adequacy", "financial soundness indicators" og "corporate sector indicators" (se 21 Slike indikatorsystemer er bl.a. tatt i bruk av verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO), jf for eksempel 54

55 ?; :-+,-./01232JS4,34-234A2:03./ /< ,32L :?1+:-+,-./01232JS4./ ]_16+02I_=/2/_032-:0-_:]- 0/< ,32LM93+9/+<3+I :/ :.3;2:/.T ??:300 <U23.2/40-+,-./01291, ,8320-,/09/+0/293,]+/ ]?; :-+,-./01232M:19]/+0/88:.23,]17] :0/53.:02395U2]M /00-8:0/+,:-+,-./0123+3< ,3093, A.1:I:039-+,-./01232J:19]039?32/062]17]+3,<A2]L( Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003) D/03712I *+,-_/012 D/03712I *+,-_/012 D16+02I K32_3+0148/+,/23/83::0=/+"%93032:/<153 a-7=^-+,: _=/2/_032-:0-_: :3/83538K32_3+0148/+,/23/<381^"%93032: V2I?32-1,: J_1+0(L /0-1+^-0=-+) :14_1/:0 G30?32-1,: B69< ^+3+,39-_:?3_-3:?32:l6/23 a3/0:?388: :8/+,/23/ D18,:?388: B69<32148/+,/+,:3/<12,32::=/23,^-0= 10=32_ : V-:0/+_301+3/23:0_ E+021?173+-_ V3+:-0I14?31?83-+_1/:0/8/23/: Y31817-_/80=23/0: X18_/+13: 0=23/0: K1?68/0-1+,3+:-0I O/20=l6/.3: K1?68/ ^0= F:6+/9-: H1::14+/062/8_1532 c3/+?32_3+0/++6/8_=/+7314 K3:0-_-,3:6:3 /23/14-_3 N320-8-m326:3 B69<3214:8-,3: G/:03^/032 b-1817-_/80=23/0: B69<321423?1203,127/+-:9 K21,6_0-1+^/:03: 160<23/.:?32:l6/ : G/:03023/ /+,/23/ B69<3214:?-88:141-8/+,=/m/2,16: F10/801++/ =0-9?1203, :6<:0/+_3:?32I3/2?32:l6/ :14 F1k-_-+,6:02-3: 8/+,/23/ B69<321453=-_83:?32:l6/ :14 B69<3214:?3_-3:-+021,6_3, 8/+,/23/ :-+_3"\%%?32:l6/ : c/k-969)c=162@q )_1+_3+02/0-1+ 8/+,/23/ K32_3+0/7314?1?68/0-1+^-0=/ 3::01:/43 O+,/+7323,:?3_-3: :/+-0/0-1+ B69<3214:?3_-3:.+1^+01=/53 G/0326:3 <3_1933k0-+_0 K32_3+0148/+,/23/,372/,3, K32_3+0/7314+/062/8/+, B69<3214+3^4-:=32-3::01_.:123k?/+,3, 23721^0=53730/0-1+_ :=32-3:344120:/,,3,010=3_16+02I 239/-+-+7 V33?9-+-+7J01+3:$I3/2L K32_ :02-/8m1+3:30/:-, :8/+,/23/L K32_3+0149/2-+3m1+3:30/:-,3 K32_ :=32-3::01_.:1532T B69<3214^/212_-5-8:02-43I3/2:15320=38/:0 4-:=3, #%I3/2:^-0=-+0= I B69< ^+:?3_-3:^=-_= O /88I238/03,837-:8/0-1+^-0= 9-72/03160:-,30= /8/23/ 23768/0-1+: D16+02I_=/2/_032-:0-_: F10/88/+,/23/ E23/148/+,3+7/73,-+0=3/72-_ , P/ =14:= :0-+714/+I73+30-_/88I91,-4-3,127/+-:9: 8/+,<12, /88/+,/23/ E++6/8+69< /0-1+/80162-:0: E80-06,32/+73J=-7=3:0? ?8-3,<I0=3/532/ =14:0/I-+0=3 :6<02/_00=381^3:0? _16+02I$8/+,/23/ _16+02IL C() B12:.3412:A.93,81./839-8SAT17<U23.2/40-+,-./01232 O0+I8-7/5:860030?21:S3.093, ?2A5-+7/5<U23.2/40-+,-./ : /2-+732:197S38,32')5)'+-.3"23"==0I?3 -+,-./012</:3203:I:03932/+53+,0?;+3001??9-8SA192;,30JE/88948)%%)L(B13+ :3+02/83324/ ' 55

56 N12/0-+,-./01232:./84;-++48I038:3?; /8032,30/57SA23+,3/0 <26.3+/5-+,-./ <83:0-83.:-:0323+,3:0I2-+7::I:03932( N12I ;:./?381./803-32:./?0-8-+,-./ <26.3+/5,-::332, ;.1<835/87/ /83-+,-./ :-:0323+,381./83 -+,-./01232:19:./87SA23, ;7SA23:/ ,33+:/2030<-8,353,2/?? ]1??1532]- :I:03930(O+9;03;8A:3,3003?;32;: :300:0/+,/2,-:3203.S32+3-+,-./01232M17:;;? /85/2-/:S1+7S3++195/87/530:0A223 /+0/ :-+,-./01232( X-,323=/2,30-?2/.:-:5-:0:37=380/57SA23+,3;=/3+0-8: /,9-+-:02/0-5.19?30/+:317./?/: ?;9-8SA192;,30412;.6++34;0-8+13]+I00]+;2,307S38,32932:I:039/0-:./2<3-,-, /83 9-8SA532+/2<3-,30(c ,23-32,3003:3719=5125-, =/2 0-8:/003+?32:1+93,30.8/20, /+:5/ ,+309-8SA532+/2<3-,' 3+9-8SA532+83, :5/23+,3( O0:3+02/ ??4A / ]9-8SA ]Jc*RT L5/20-80/.412;:0I2.3:0I2-+7:,-/ :0/ (X :;9;035/ /53026+,:.2-519:0/ , /839-8SA532+? J26+,:.2-5FT\&s42/"\\&LM48323?21:S , 9;8: ; /839-8SA-+,-./ I /?? / :0/0?;9-8SA ;,30(V302393:0:3+02/83?21:S /2' O+4,-)5'$'2)'7S3++194A20/5, SA, /03+3( O0:0A :?21:S3.093,60?2A5-+7/59-8SA-+,-./ :A.: J,30:;./803^4#&)-45=-"#>)&,),L( V3+194/003+,3:/0: /c-8SA532+,3?/ ::-,3?; 4,-)5'$'2:19: ,-./0121??:300</:320?;7S38,3+,3 :0/08-73:0I2-+7::-7+/832?;9-8SA ;,30(V3+1?? /+.3+5/2; :0I2-+7::I:039:19:.6883: /5:0/ SA9;8 7S3++19<3, =30412:0/ ?2A (*2/?? / 6023,+-+7:/2<3-,30<83,301?? /9<-:S1+:+-5;3019;< ,-./012:I:039: AI412:0/08-79;8:0I2-+7/ ,6:320( E2<3-,30<83-:03,3+?23: ,321532: n*,h:/ /80 9-8SA532+]M17,30<836+,32: ,+-+73+/0n?5_#.(<$'2)'*#&.<*$&&)* C-4&)#*#"(*),*#,.,<$2*-.=="-,)-$'2##6#,)(]JV / / / (48( "\\ZM:(&L(*,h:/ ?23: :03,3+30-+,-./0121??:300f /003+,3:;,/+f93,3+7S3++197/+7/5C#+/:S1+/839-8SA9; ,3 439? :/0:+-+7:192;, /809-8SA532+/2<3-,7S ,:.2-5FT\&s(V :8/70-8-/80"C%.1996+/839-8SA9;817)[% 9-8SA-+,-./ ?? ,3:/993439:/0:+-+7:192;,3+3( V /03+36+,32:023.32/0412:8/73+39;412:0;::19($<>%-+,-./01232T17/0 56

57 57,3-..3?2303+,3232;7-30<U23.2/40?32:?3.0-5?;, /83 9-8SA532+/2<3-,30( *^4#&)-45=-"#>)&,),7S3++194A203, SA, /03+3-?32-1,3+"\\)T\Z ;:.68830S ;8JNI8.3:9/++3+-b6:.326,"\\sdG/+7"\\sL' 5U AI412#.("-5'),*-.=="-,)-$'242/ :0/0?; 9-8SA ;, :0/ :-:0323+, :/912,+03 2/?? ::I: U AI412&"((4'.<*($<>%#,6-$'2 5U AI412#.(()'<$2'$'2* ?;9-8SA ;,30 b6:.326,?21:s3.030:0/ /3023+0:0/ /0-54-+/+:-320/5:0/ I+,-7=3032M93+, =53203+?/2/ /8608A? /5?21:S (b/ /230A+:.319;23+,I2.39;8: :19 7S/8, / /83:0I2-+7:-+,-./01232M:19-7S3+:.I8,03:,30?21:S ??4/0030:1930]8A403<26,,]42/,3:0/08-739I+,-7= ,053-:-?21:S3.030(R / ?21:S ,308A40319; <-,2/0-8; :I:039:19: $#,)5)'+"-2;,3+,3 2/?? ::I:03932?;9-8SA ;,30(c-,053-:-?21:S3.030<83,30-9-,8320-,7S120.8/2042/:0/08-739I+,-7=3032::-,3/0,30:I:039309/+A+:.30; : $*,$<<)22*,$<3.:-:0323+,3815?;8/703 2/?? ::I:03932( K;726++/5,3+01, ?21:S = M<83, ," -+,-./012412:8/7'300:197S/8, /82/?? :0/08-739I+,-7= : : A+:.3019<3, /83:0I2-+7:-+,-./01232?; 9-8SA ;,30(N12:8/730:197S/8, /8-.=="-,)-$'2*,$<*#,.,<$2)* (6'5$2B),)-*-++3=18,32_/#%9-8SA-+,-./ ,3042/+/:S1+/839; :8-+S32(*:86002/?? ,30/+0I,30/0&)/5-+,-./0123+3<A25U : 412/ M[./+0-8?/::3:81./83412=18,93+:")/5,360?2A5,3 -+,-./0123+3< :8;00:8AI430412,-,332412/2<3-,:.2353+,3;0/-< /5/+, =3+:-.0:93::-7;<26.3JNI8.3:9/++3+-b6:.326,"\\sM 53,8377CM:)L(*3+0-,8-74/:3/5?21:S3.0308/9/+1?? ,38-+7/5 : ,-./ SA039/(*+,-./0123+3<83, / 0-8:5/23+,3c-8SA532+,3?/ :0-23:680/0192;,32M412:3+323;<8-23,6: :3.:( V30/+,23-+,-./012412:8/730:19?2-9U205/ &"((4'.<*#,6-$'2] :.-803:37607S3++19;< :6??8323+,3039/32/50I?3+']R19?30/+:317 =18,+-+732]M]9-8SA/2<3-, /+-:/:S1+]17]+U2-+7: ](N12,3 A /3+3:.-803,30-8:/ /7\%-+,-./0123+3: /,42/,3 ]:0/08-73]-+,-./0123+3(*:/993+,2/730-:86002/?? /, /83,38?21:S3.030<83, /+<34/8-+732:19:.-803:3753: /,3+ :0/08-73,383+/5?21:S3.030(a32<83,30/+<34/8030: ,-./012:I:039 93,"C.S32+3-+,-./ ,60:? S /']P3::62:T <26.]17]9-8SA.5/8-030](

58 F-8021:: / /003+,3412:A.:5-2.:19=30M:1917:;<83/.0-50:0A0030 /523?23:3+0/+03242/,3023, /03+3M=/2/+<34/ /?21:S /,< ??(V :0/ , ,:.2-5:190/21??-:37/+<34/ (a /5?21:S =/ /+00/00-<26.:I:0393+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(*:86002/?? /?21:S3.030<8-2,30?3.0?;=-+, ;0/-<26.-+,-./0123+3M+13:1917:;./+412.8/23=512412/+<34/ /?21:S3.030-:; /, ??( O24/ /412:A.3+3./+:/993+4/003:-4A873+,3?6+.032JNI8.3:9/++3+- b6:.326,"\\sdg/+7"\\sl' b3723?30<u23.2/ h1./8e73+,/)"328-03,2a m17<u23.2/ <3723+:3072/,726++8/7412?2/.0-:.? :5/23+,38-03:i ::0i2-+7:, ( N12;7SA23,-:.6:S1+3+19<U23.2/ :0;38-79; -+,-./ ?/::3:, :<3=15( *+,-./012329;17:;0-8?/::3: : :199I+,-7=30:60A532M 0S3+3:03?21,6:3+017:/946++: ( O :4688<26./5<U23.2/40-+,-./ : / , /7173+<30I,38-7?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/0-5? ( *+0372/:S1+/5<U23.2/40-+,-./01232-:3+02/83:0I2-+7:, : ?8/+MA.1+19-?8/+17;2:938,-+732=380/57SA23+,3( O00/59;83+393,J$<>%C6=-"2-.((),5/2; ,32412;<3: SA0-8:0/+,3+-<I32Jc-8SA532+,3?/ "\\#L(K;</.726++/5, c-8SA532+,3?/ "\\#30412:8/ SA9;893,)Z0-8=A23+,3 -+,-./01232:195/293+0;5U ,3412;<3: <U23.2/ /+: / /c-8SA<I?2172/9930(X3,/5: /5?2172/ ??932.:19=30-?2172/9?32-1,3+M17,30<838/70: ?;/ :.6883?2A5360,34123:8;003-+,-./0123+3(V3032,32412:8;3+,3/0)-+.-$'2)-93, <26.3+/5-+,-./ =38042/5U23+,3<;,3-,30194/003+,3, /:S1+:T V307S3+:0;2;:3190I?3+-+,-./0121??:300: / <2-+731:: +U29323:I:03932/581./83<U23.2/40-+,-./01232:195-8<8-<26.0-5/2-73?18-0-:.317/,9-+-:02/0-53:0I2-+7:?21:3::32=12-:1+0/ /5723+: SA-+,-./ ,3<3:03412=;?+-+732JaAI3217 E/88)%%)L(O+6+,32:A.38:342/)%%%5-:32/0</23;003?21:3+0/5+12: ??7-2/0,3=/,,30/00-<26.9-8SA-+,-./ SA:0I2-+7::I:03932JbSA2+U:)%%)L( 58

59 C(& N12:A.?;; /83-+,-./01232?;.8-9/192;,30 a5/=/25-:;;<i773?;/5932:?3: /2-+732?;.8-9/192;,30ex /2-+732?;023192;,32: :U /+03+;2,30 7S38,3230/<832-+7/5:I:03932:19194/ /83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:-+,-./01232' 81./8.8-9/?8/ d 81./8<323,:./?:?8/ d17 +3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91,38832( *B :,3071, ,33.:39? /883,-:: ;,3+3M93+</ ,304A2:03192;,3032,307S3++194A /003+,317:I:039/0-:. -++:/98-+7/5?2/.0-:.3324/2-+732JY E/88)%%)L(* <323,:./?:?8/ ,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91, ,309320/ , :?23,03324/ /412:A.:5-2.:19=30JE/88 17Y2153+)%%&L( * /883, ;,3+3./ /5-+,-./012:I:03932?8/::323: /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./ /2607/+7:?6+.0-+/:S1+/83M -9/ :;781</83,/0/:300M17412:A.32:;53,=S38?/ f=326+,3217:;s6: ,81./83,/0/t;:./8323+3,,/0/ /80+-5;( O+:3+02/ S : /5&.-,:195-: /81781./8 5/2-/:S1+M-9/ ,+AI/.0-7=30=380+3,?; ;( Lokal klimaplanlegging < :532.0AI:197SA2, ; I8.3:T :3 1532: :8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32JS42(0/< ,32L( b :91, s ?;* (v30327s3++194a20412:a.93, /581./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/ /88:+12: I8.3: M,3260/2<3-,-+7/581./83.8-9/237+:./? : /+7:? ,381./83?8/+?21:3::3+3( Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter R-8,3 *+,6:02- ""%) E++3++U2-+7 "#%C a6:=18, #\s E++3+:0/:S1+U2412< % K21:3::60:8-?? *+,6:02- % V3?1+- "[ZZ& H/+,<26. "&"&% E+,23?21:3::60:8-?? &## c1<-83.-8,32 K32:1+T175/23<-832 "&\%[ H/:03<-83217<6::32 #CZ[ c1?3,17cd \%) N8I s%) E+,2391<-83.-8,32 "[\) %452D?B5FD=33 7U:RU 59

60 N2/953.:03+/5.8-9/? :1930.8/206002I /80? ;,332 68A:38-7.+I /953.:03+/ /83.8-9/?8/+32,3:-:03?/2;23+3M93+,30<I773217:;?;0-, / ,81./ ?8/ :/912,+30 02/+:?120T17/23/8?8/ /"\[%T17"\\%T0/8830(V34A2:033.:39?83+3?; 81./83.8-9/?8/+3260/2<3-,30/5+12: b3273+J"\\sLMR2-:0-/+:/+, J"\\[LMQ??8/+,J"\\[L17N23,2-.:0/,J)%%%L(O+7S3++197/+7/5-/ /88:412:A.93,81./ T17.8-9/?8/ ?32-1,3+)%%%T%"5-:32 / ?23: ?103+:-/8-412=18,0-8;<-,2/0-81??4I8838:3 /5,3+12:.3.8-9/412?8-.038:3+3JY E/88)%%)L(O+7S3++197/+7/5 0-80/.4123:8;00-, /83.8-9/?8/+3+3/+0I,323023,6.:S1+:?103+:-/8 0-8:5/23+,3198/7"$&/5,3+/:S1+/83412?8-.038: RI101T? F1=-+, :U28-70I,38-73+;2,307S38,32;4;0-853: <-,2/742/ /2<3-,3093,;23,6: /7/::60:8-??'41237/+7: ??83532/0, /83=/+,8-+7: <$,)M<8/+0/++30?;726++/5 9/+783+,3=12-:1+0/ ?;+/:S1+/80+-5;/5.8-9/=3+:I : : /+:?120M93+::-06/:S ,323:0323+, /0,300-87S =/+,8-+7:219930<8-260+I00/+"-*57-<$2JY E/88 )%%)L(F-8:5/23+,3324/ S120<8/+0/++30-B3,328/+,JD c3+.538,)%%)l( V30325-,323.+I : ,30;608A:330?103+:-/ /8-++:/0:-.8-9/? (V U23/57SA23+, ;2:0/08-7:0A /?8/ A2:03197/+7M175-,323:0A S3++194A2-+7/581./83.8-9/0-80/.(X-,32332,30/57SA23+,3/09-8SAT17.8-9/? <8-2:/000-8: =AI0?;,3+81./8?18-0-:.3,/7:12,3+17/ =/271,+1./,9-+-:02/0-5./?/: SA4/ ?30/+:3 JY E/88)%%)L(Q7:;=3232,307S1200-8:5/23+,3324/ //+,238/+, JD188-32"\\sMb30:-8)%%"MD c3+.538,)%%)L(B3,7/+73+-/+0/ :19=/24/:0/+:/009-8SA532+83,32./+5-:3:37;5U233+/ =-+, : / /? JY E/88)%%)L( Lokal beredskapsplanlegging R ,/ :/ :1?32/ :3<323,:./?JBQ`)%%"L( X3,.2-:32: /232;=;+,0323:385M./ <3 1??2300=18, /8346+.:S1+32M M<-:0;? S3++194A23 1??2I,,-+7:/.:S1+32M ??7/532:19328/700-8<2/++53:3+3017=38:3T 17:1:-/8: ( *8A?30/5"\\%T0/88303+,230<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-B1273./2/.03242/;5U23.2-7: ;<8-932: (V30039;5-:3-8I:/ =18,',3+ :-..32=30:?18-0-:.3:-06/:S /0S32+03??304/80d /53+:0/, ?83.:17:;2</2-+42/: d /003+,3+/062./0/:021432?;4A2:03 =/85,38/5"\\%T0/8830J+I00;2:12./+3+-"\\)17: ?;g:08/+,30-"\\#L JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 60

61 :/946++]M:19:.-:: /730412,/73+:<323,:./?:? M7-2</233+ :699/2-:.190/83/5.8-9/3+,2-+7:19:/946++::-..32=30:?21<839(H D"((4')')#<323,:./?:/2<3-,32:U28-7.+I ?8/ ( b323,:./?:=3+:i+:./8-++/2<3-,3:<;,3-,3+12,-+u23/23/8?8/ m 9-8SA192;,30M: :1:-/8T17=38:3192;,30(`+,32:A.38:32604A20412 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:3+JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( P-$/$<<$2)*B4(.'$,0-)*"-2.'$#.#>"')-*:? <323,:./?:T17 :/946++::-..32=30:/2<3-,307S3++19:-+,380/.38:3-+12:.23,+-+7:0S3+3:0317 7S I..3:4123<I773+,3/2<3-,(V / :19 <-+,383,,938819< : M17=/2,3293,3+ 93, :46+.:S1+( *483238/+,32,303.:39?832?;+/:S1+/83<323,:./?::02/ I /062./0/:021432:19:I:039/0-: :;,30-)2$"'.<)17<"&.<) Y2153+)%%&L(O ,30; /804125/80+-+7:+-5;32 :I+8-77SA2-+7/52-:-.1(a3232&.-,C.#)-,)532.0AI30:3+02/80:0-..12,(N ,325-:32303.:39?38?;./2060:+-00:19412:A.32;:I+8-77SA /23(F-8./203032,30.+I0030:03,4/:03237-:032</:32031??8I:+-+732:8-./0,6./ ?;,32,6<12M174;932,30/8S /:S1+193.:02395U2M:.23,4/23M48194/23 1(/( Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County Generert ut fra en nasjonal karttjeneste laget av Federal Emergency Management Agency, lagt ut på 61

62 F-8:5/23+,3./20</: /:S1+326+, :;-B1273M<8(/(-237-/5 E23/8-:?21:S3.030J:.23,L17BXOJ4819LMS4(3.:39?386+,32(N12,3832/5B :,30+;./200-87S ?;* :195-:324/23: :03-+TM:+AT :.23,M17,329/+6042/30B1273:./20:195-:32= ;,32:1932./208/70./ :37+3,0-8: ,323+3,0-8+-5;93, <I J<8-2+U /80-./?-0038#L(R/200S3+3:03+342/9:0;2-9-,8320-,-..3:19, I ,30?2/.0-:.3<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-,3+ 412:0/+,/0, ?;41238A? ,3212,+303J17238/0-505/+: S L:-,32 )& ( Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred 24 *E23/8-:?21:S ,30?8/+3219; /003+,3./20</:3200S3+3:03?; 192;,30<323,:./?J: ,32L(b323,:./?-++7;2:19300/5")=153,039/ )# ( K21<83930=32M:19-23:03+/5E23/8-:?21:S3.030M:I+3:-9-,8320-,;5U23/0 /9<-:S1+:+-5;3093,=3+:I :/98-+7M53,8-.3=18, /5,/0/M :;8/ :I+3:;:0;-:0-893,0-87S ::62:320-8<;,3;30/< I00330:8-.0:I:039JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 23 Se (stein- og snøskred), (kvikkleire) og =282&strBoxColor=99CCFF&strYAH=>NVE>%3Cb%3EVann%3C%2Fb%3E>Flomvarsel>Flomsonekartprosjektet (flomsoner). 24 Kilde: Tilsvarende eksempel finnes for kvikkleireskred ( 25 De øvrige er: natur, landbruk, kulturminner, rekreasjon, landskap, forurensning, kyst/fiskeri, plan, vannforsyning, befolkning og reindrift. 62

63 Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid 26 Nedskalering av nasjonale og globale klimamodeller V /20</: /:S1+:19325-:06+,32JS42(N-762"&LM-++7;2-3+8/+702/,-:S1+?;9-8SA192;,30,329/+:A.32;-,3+0-4-:323192;,32:1932 :U28-7<38/:03093,9-8SA:./, ;,3293,:U28-7:012360:8-??38832/+, SA<38/:0+-+7(F2/,-:S1+380=/2,30035U207S120:19,38/5+/:S1+/ ;.+-+7:?2172/ :19=S38?39-,,38412; ; /:S1+/89-8SA? (V3++302/,-:S :;0/001??-/2<3-,3093,; +3,:./ </83.8-9/91, ,3293,;4;4239./20:195-: / /85/2-/:S /?/2/ ,329/+-+3:03197/+7./+/583,3./20:195-:320-8:5/23+, /2-/:S :3.53+:32/5.8-9/5/2-/:S1+32( V = /:S1+/833.:39?832?;237-1+/81781./8 +3,:./ S /:S1+/83:/993+=3+732JD13+"\\sMH-5329/+17 c32-,-0=)%%)mg/0:1+948"\\sl(v303217:;1?? :03,32,329/+./+:06, ,380/-+032/.0-50-;30/< / /83 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:32 )s (`+,32325-:0303.:39?38?;237-1+/85/2-/:S1+/5.8-9/,/0/ = /,30+12:.3P37D8-9?2172/9930M17,32] ,-32]32< Kilde: 27 Se for eksempel Storbritannia Nederland USA Sør-vest USA Mist-Atlantisk region i USA Karibien Canada Australia Arktis 63

64 Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager ) Lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer *?21:S3.030]H<$(.,)*HB.'2)*F4<')-.C$<$,6*$'*1"-O.6N*"M$"3)M"'"($M* T)-#=)M,$/)#*"'*T"<$M$)#*.'5*?(=.M,#]=/2D*DOPQ/2<3-,3093,; /20</:320-+,-./012:I:039:19/+0I,301532JQob )%%&L(F-8:5/23+,3:19 -,30:I: :./ MA+:.329/+17:;=32;4; /8:;2</2= <;,3.8-9/3+, /? J/80:; ,832412;23,6:323 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32L(X-, ,3232:I: ,-./ /8 0-8?/:+-+7:35+3JS42(0/< ,32L( Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003) *+,-./012039/ *+,-./01232 E+,38:I::38:/ :;2</23+U H1./8:;2</2= /3+, J=10388$23:0/62/+0M:.17<26.M8/+,< :.323L E+,38:I::38:/ :;2</23+U J-+,6: S3238/ :19=30L H1./8:;2</2= /? E+,383+DQ ) T60:8-??42/-+,6:02-3+/5:/983,3 81./8360:8-?? E+,383+38,23-,3+I2.3:/.0-53< ( H1./80-8?/:+-+7: / E+,383+</ ,3+:/983,3< (,39172/4-:.34/ B I00-+7:2/03 H1./8:I::38:300-+7:?217+1:3 64

65 X3,;41230/ /+/8I:3/5=512,/+,393++3:.38-73MA.1+19-:.317 +/06293::-7323::62:3+35/ M:A.329/+;-,3+0-4-: :.S ,=3+:I+0-8./?/: ;9A ,2-+732:194A8732/5303+, / ,-7.8-9/? (*605/87/5-+,-./ ?/:+-+7:35+3=/2 9/+8/ /0-502)')-)<,?32:?3.0-5M,329/+/+0/2/0=AI/+,38 I2.3:/.0-53M8/5/+,38</ M3+?1: I00-+7:2/03M8/5 /2<3-,:83,-7= , A.1+19-< =AI0-8?/:+-+7:35+3(V I?3-+,-./01232:19=/2:0128-.=3093,, ,+-+7:5-:190/803:19 $'#,$,4#>"')<<)-+,-./01232( N12; :/ /8:;2</2=30:-+,3.:<8-2, ,-./ ,M17:699320:/ :;2</2=30:-+,3.:(a532-+,-./012-+,3.:323:6042/ 4A873+, ' *+,3.:532,- w J4/.0-:.532,-f :532,-L y "%% J9/.:-969:532,-f :532,-L K;726++8/7/5,-::3< <8-2,30:;?21,6: :;2</2=30:./20M:19- +3:03197/+7.1<83:0-8./ /5/2-/<832( Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme 28 *+,-./01291, / ,03.:39?38?; /T17T+3, 0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./0123+3:197S38,32:;2</2= /80-8?/:+-+7: =153,:/.</:320?;81./83,/0/M93+-+,-./0123+3:197S38,32.8-9/3+, :01272/,</:320?;+3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91,38832( 28 Hentet fra foredraget Klima i endring. Hvor sårbart er Norge? Og hva med Voss som vintersportssted?. Materialet vil bli publisert i en rapport fra CICERO. 65

66 66 c1, m:19?;? m238/0-5] ]m-,3+412:0/+,/0-+,-./ ?/:+-+7:35+332</:320?; A.1+19-:.317,39172/4-:.3:0/0-: ?;,/0/:19:?3:-4-.0:A.32;<3: ?/:+-+7: I ,30; 7S3++194A2360:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/ / /0-8?/:+-+7( c1,3883+:-.032:37-607/+7:? ;5-: /81781./85/2-/:s1+- 3+'.#>"'.<:/993+=3+7MS4(?23:3+0/:S1+3+/568-.3]B1273:./20](V3++30I?3+ 562, /+4123.:39?385U23+I /5+/:S1+/830-80/.173+ J)%%&LM./+,3,/++3607/+7:? /8,3</00199/+:./87;,I? ?21<839: /8:;2</2= /3+, /0-80/.( V3++30I? /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7./+, :;=/3+81./8532,-412;.8/27SA23:-06/:S /80-412=18,0-8/+,23,3832/58/+,30'.8/27SA2-+732:19- +3:03197/+7./ /830-80/.412;23,6:323,3+81./83:;2</2=303+( a/29/+/9<-:s1+3219; ,-./012:i:039:19:./8,/ / /83<3: S3++194A2-+7/50-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.M9;9/ ;4239-+,-./ ,=AI3231??8A: ,3+0I?3+,/0/:19</:3232:37?; +3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91, /:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..(V3032,3++301, , ;20/2<3-,230032: M/80:;,30; /80]+3,3+42/T 17T1??]-+,-./012:I: :3:/993+= ,300317,3+]153+42/T 17T+3,]-+,-./01291,3883+: /801532( C(C Q??<I77-+7/53081./80-+,-./012:I: /0-8?/:+-+7 O0=5320-+,-./012:I: ?; /192;,32(R+I = /192;,35-8,305U ,-./01232(O , :0f:19.8-9/? f5-87S32+3=/ ,343883::300/5039/192;,32(V3/ ,-./ , U23+1.:;412:.S388-73M/5=3+7-7/5, :/993+=3+73+,3032:+/..19(X-<26.32<3723?30"-$)',"-)-412;6002I..3 : :039/192;,32Jct883217H36?380"\\[L(Q /+70-8;,-:.60323,330-:.3:-, <26.3+/5-+,-./012Jb1::38"\\ZL(V30S3+32 : /?? ::3532,-32M-+0323::32M ;8M17=S38?321:: 0-8;5U23:I:039/0-: :-: ;2"-$)',)-$' ?83.:08/+,:./?/5 5/2-/<8317?103+: ,-./01232(Q :./ :19C$'5)<) :3,3817-:.3412<-+,38:3:8-+S ,+3,3<3723?32f:19 <U23.2/ /? f17, ,-./0123+3(N12/0 -+,-./0123+3:./85U : ,+30:/993+=3+79;,305U23 93:0968-7, < , ,+3,3<3723?30-+,-./ /2 607/+7:? , ,-./0123+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( c3,&<$(.="<$,$&&]&<$(.,$<=.#'$'217<"&.<)*,$<,.&*:19, ,+3,3 :/993+= ,30:+/..19;-,3+0-4-: : :195-:32 412=18, , ,+3,3:/993+= ; ,-./01232( V30-++3<U232;-,3+0-4-:323, :193.:?8-: I <3723?:19 ].8-9/0-8:0/+,]M]60:8-??:23,6.:S1+32]M].8-9/0-8?/:+-+7]17]81./89-8SA? ]( X;20607/+7:?6+.0-/05-:./84;4239,3+81./83:;2</2= =18,0-8<;,3.8-9/3+, /? (V3#)',-.<)*#=%-#(7<)')5-,/:./8:A.3;4; <38I:032,3293,:194A8732' a512,/+?; /3+,2-+732,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e a512,/+?; /? ,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e

67 a512,/+./+81./8:/ ,6:323,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e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igur 15 Sammenhenger mellom klima og samfunn som grunnlag for utforming av en lokal klimatilpassings indikatormodell c3,'.,4-<$2:;2</2= =512,/++/ ?21:3::32<8-2?;5-2.30/530 3+, /(a32: S I:-:.17<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(O.:39?38?;,304A2:03323+, :/52/:M93+:3.:39?38?;,30/+,2332=AI+-+7/ :3+f-< A:0/53+, /( V ;0/93,:37/0605/87/5, ,-./ / :;2</2=30+A,53+,-75-:9;<8-:0I20/54123: =/ ,3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2=303+17:/993+= / :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30(X-0/293,/+,2312,-..393,-+,-./ / I:-:.317<-1817-:.3?21:3::32(N/23+=3232:385:/70/ =/2 1532: / /+03;2:/.T :412=18, / :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30( c3,#.(+4''#%&"'"($#&:;2</2= a.1+19-:.317/+,23 :/946++:93::-73.1+:3.53+:32M ;2:/.305$-)&,)/5.8-9/3+,2-+732J412 3.:39?38/ ,6: :02A /5062-:032L ;2:/.30*/ I:-: <-1817-:.33+,2-+732M:19-7S A:0/5.8-9/3+,2-+732( 67

68 X-,323=/25-,3+:/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2= =18, /? M412 3.:39?38=5-:+U2-+7: /804;2?21< ,;1??2300=18,38A++:19=30?;726++/5.8-9// ( V3+:-:03./ ,-./01232:199;023..3:-++412;<3:.2-53,3+81./83 :;2</2=303+M7S38,32$'#,$,4#>"')<<)412=18,(*, :/ ::/983,3./?/: S :0-06:S /.;412=18,3: /?21<839/0-..3+',305-8:-0-80/.412;23,6:323, :.3:./?03.8-9/?; "20-80/.412 ;0-8?/::3:/ /3+,2-+732( V3:/993+= ?2A532;4;42397S ,-./01291, : :5U20.19?83.:317<3= ,:0126:-..32=30M4A2: :0412,-5- A+:.32;4;42/9<"&.<)5/2-/:S1+32(X-,32332,303+/9<-:S1+19/0,3:/ /83-+,-./ :;:./8.6++3=/3+81./8?18-0-:.23835/+:'/0-+,-./ ?2-+:-??30./+7--++:? /87/5:02/ /.81./80(V /0-50<3:.S3,3+0?21:S3.032,30= ; ,30/8S32330: ,-./012:I:039M= ?2A53, ;/5.8/23,3+?2/.0-: /+:3+( X; <3723+:3,3/9<-:S1+:+-5;<8-2,32412;/+0I,33+91,38817 <3: ''<"2$&&)'-3+: ,-./01291,388(*,305-,323=/25-f:; 8/ f412:A.0; : ,-./ , ,-./012039/3+3-,3+0-4-: (c3+4A2:05-85-< / <302/ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30M412,-, A..38<3723?-,3+5-, : /5-+,-./012:I:03930( b3723?30#.(+4''#%&"'"($=/2=-:012-:.5u20+u20.+i /517 <26.3+/5+I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32Jc-:=/+"\s)L )\ (V30;7SA23 :/946++:A.1+19-:.3562, =/2, U20,30:/993:19; 7S3++194A233++I003T.1:0/+,:/+/8I:3JV3,3./9"\[sL(O0.S I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32=/25U20;-+.86,323532,:300-+7/571, /2.3,30M,32,30;532,:3003<26./ ,32=/25U20=380:3+02/80 Jc/00:1+"\s)L(F-8412:.S38842/-+,-5-, ,32./ , ,:: ?32:1+32:<3=15?;3+:8-.9;03/0,32:19h+?32:1+1??+;2 <3=15:0-8423,::0-8838:3/571,30M23,6: ,3003/+,23?32:1+32:968-7=30412,30:/993Ja1803"\ssL(c-8SA71,32: A20+/ :39?832?; ,32(V30;7S3++194A23+I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32M17,3293,7SA23 :/946++:A.1+19-:.3/+/8I:32M=/2,32412=-:012-:.17:;5U20+U20.+I ,3+ 9-8SA?18-0-:.3,3</003+JaAI32"\s\L(R1+02/:03+0-8:/946++:A.1+19-:.3 562, <3,2-40:T388329/2.3,:A.1+19-:.3562, M:19,/ :/00 ;5U239-+,23194/003+,3-<30I,+-+73+/0]4U223?1:032]0/8843:03:170/:93,- 562, Jc/00:1+"\s)L( c3,:/946++:a.1+19-:.:;2</2= /0-53f17-?2-+:-??3017:;?1:-0-53f ?;a.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30:19, , a8732/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(x c-)5412:0;38:3/5=5/:19194/003:/5 A.1+19-:./ M ,3232-?2-+:-??30/885-2.:19=30-:/ :19 194/ , <26./5.+/??323::62:32( 29 I nyere tid kan det virke som om begrepet samfunnsøkonomi har fått en langt videre betydning, og at begrepet blir brukt synonymt med begrep som økonomi eller sosialøkonomi (jf betegnelser som Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi og den utstrakte bruken av samfunnsøkonomi som betegnelse på studietilbud ved universiteter og høyskoler). 68

69 V34-+-:S /+7:? ; /+03-+,-./01232( c3+93,3+:;?/::5-,,34-+-:s1+/5=5/:194/ ,32< :3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30M32,30:385:/705/+:.38-7; A993+,38-: A.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30, :03197/+7./+/583, ,-./01232(X-5-8,324120/607/+7:?6+.0-1??4/ =5-8.30I?32 A.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30:19-607/+7:? :060:/00412;<8-<32A20/5.8-9/3+,2-+732,-23.03M ,-23.03:194A873/53+, ,304I:-: <-1817-:.39-8SA30(X-0/2607/+7:? =153,./ /5A.1+19-:. 5-2.:19=30'+U2-+7:5-2.:19= /: ( V3032:385:/709/+73?21< ,3+91,388,325-+U2:/70/?2-12-0/2 607/+7:?6+.0-=5-8.30I?325-2.:19=3032:1932:;2</23(B;2,307S38,32,3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2= =18,0-8&<$(.)'5-$'2)-32,30:385:/70?21< ,9/+783+,3.6++:./?19;2:/.T :412=18,d:U28-77S38,32,3003:69T17:/9:? /5.8-9/3+, =18,0-8+/ <-1817-:.3?21:3::3217=512,/+,3003-7S3+./+?;5-2.3:/ A52-7(V30:I+3: ;/+0//0,3032,3+/06223::62:</:3203+U :194A2: : <8-2/9930( Q7:;+;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8&<$(.="<$,$&&32,303+:0126:-..32=30(* 607/+7:? /+03+.3:37/0:;2</2=303+32/5=3+7-7/5=512./2< :-55-2.:19=303+32':012360:8-??< =AI:;2</2=30JQpb :012360:8-??./+=/A.1+19-:.2I772/,0-8;7S3++194A230-80/.M17./+,3293, 5U239-+,23:;2</ ,235-2.:19=303293,:5/.323A.1+19-:.35+3f :38519,-::3=/2238/ ,2360:8-??(O0/8032+/ :14-: :0+/,: J.21+32? ,6.:S /7/::60:8-??L(O+ :;2</2=30:562, :-32/09/+:+628-:03+]?;=1,30]'5-2.:19= , 8/53:0.1:0+/,: ,393:0:;2</23(FI?-:.35-2.:19= ,/5U23 18S3T177/::5-2.:19=30M?3021.S39-:.-+,6: /4-..(V ,8320-, a32./+9/+03+.3: :.3607/+7:?6+.0':;2</2=30-412=18,0-8#.''#6'<$2.8-9/? m38832:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8(4<$2.8-9/? (*,304a2: ;9/+562,323,302;,3+,3.8-9/?18-0-: /:S1+/ /:S1+/8017,3+:/993+: J] ,,38?/..3]L9/ <8-7S38,3+,3-1532: ,M93+:9/+-,30/+, / :_3+/2-30/+.37/+7f4123.:39? ;?;.8-9// ,3( Y-00/05-,/.1+: ::19:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8;-++4A23/ ?; 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32M./+5-7SA :.2/ /3+562,32-+7/5 :/983060:8-???325-2.:19=30: =18, :19=303+:A.1+19-:.3 <U ;<30/83/ J/8032+/0-50L7S3++194A230-80/.412;23,6:323 69

70 9-8SA237+:./?30:19,38/5+/:S1+/8237+:./?30 &% (a32=/29/+<26.0 <26001?21,6.0J,5:(19: :5/23-++:/0:L:199;8?;A.1+19-:. <U &" (a5-:5-:;.1<832< /560:8-??17a.1+19-:.<u ; ,3.::195-:32A.1+19-:.=/+,8-+7:219?323+=3060:8-??(X-2.:19= ,:012360:8-?? A.1+19-:.<U ,3293,4;3+8/5-+,3.:M93+: <3, ,:9;60:8-??17:012A.1+19-:.<U ;3+=AI-+,3.:( B;2,307S38,32$'+-.#,-4&,4-5-8,3017:;=325U : :;2</2=30-412=18, /3+, /? M1717:;=3232,30 :?/2:19093,562, :;2</2=30( */2<3-,3093,B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+412)%%ZT)%"#32,307S :06, /5.8-9/3+, ,-.'#="-,#)&,"-)'JNS38,948)%%)L(a3232,30 7S120562, ,=3+:I =18,:19412:-+.38:3M621-=/5+32M0;.3M-:-+7M :+A4/88M48191:5(X62, S /+:?120?;53-MS32+</+3M:SA (E+, / /: ,3++3:/993+= ,3:: ,+-+7:+300J8640M./<38L172A2:I:03932J/58A?M5/++412:I+-+7L( B;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30-412=18, /? ;,30-+42/: /+5-< /5,3+:/ U :19412+U2-+7:5-2.:19=30(c3+ +;2,307S38,3202/+:?120: ?13+730=32; :39? :37/03+23: ?/ :? /512-: /+:? =18,0-8?2-5/0<-8(B;2,307S38,32?2-:./+9/+03+.3:373+,-23.03:/993+= :8-??17.1:0+/,'S1=AI32360:8-???32604A20 02/+:?120/2<3-,S1:0A223?103+:-388A.+-+7-< :0+/,3+3( *607/+7:? ,305U23:8-./0,3+4I:-:.3-+42/: :37:385J53-3+3M =/5+3+3M83, :5L5-85U2393:0:;2</ /3+,2-+732M93+: C-4&)'/5-+42/: U23:;2</ <;,3.8-9/3+, /? (b;,3A.0=I??-7=30/5: =AI323DQ ) T/ ?;5-2.3?32:1+<-802/+:?1203+( 30 Se 31 Alternativt kunne man brukt driftsresultat som mål. Driftsresultat er bruttoproduktet pluss subsidier med fratrekk for kapitalslit, lønnskostnader og direkte skatter. Dermed får man justert i forholdet mellom kapital- og arbeidsintensive næringer, og kommer nærmere en tallfesting av frie midler til disposisjon i virksomhetene. 70

71 7L /N?;;4EC2;C2A>4;>1?5?=;<=>2541?1 #(" B/ I:-:.:;2</2=30 B/0628-7:;2</2=30M:19.1+:3.53+:/54I:-:.3?21:3::32M.+I0032:370-8,381./83 +/062412=18,:1901?172/4-M< M53730/:S1+M=I,21817-:.3:U2023..M S12,:91++30_(*9A0393,3+<3: /0-8:0/+,5-8,3+/ =18, / A:34I:-:.3?21:3::32:19-7S <-,2/0-8 :/946++:93::-7:;2</2=30M<8(/(/5=3+7-7/581./8-: /5<3<I7738:317 / /: J M38T412:I+-+730_(L-192;,30(V300332?21:3::329/ /+=/4688:03+,-71532: M93,=3+:I+0-8:/++:I+8-7=30M-+03+:-030M : / =3+,38:32M93+,305-85U23:3+02/80;./ ,3412=18,:19324/2-+7:93:: :03,353,,3++30I?3=3+,38:32( V303217:;=3+:-.0:93::-7;<3723+:3+/0628-7:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8= I:-:.3?21:3::329/+=/ ;2:/.3:/946++:93::-7 :;2</2=30(V393:0:3+02/834I:-:.3?21:3::3+3<8-2,/' 4819 :0129$: :.23,J :.23,M:03-+T174S388:.23,17:+A:.23,L 321:S1+ B;2,307S38, I?32:.23,174819M:;41237;2,30-,/7./ /5 60:/003192;,32(E883,-::3./ :?21:3::3+30/2:-.03?;;60/2<3-,3./201532: ,/0/9/032-/830-8<26.-<8(/(81./8/23/8?8/ <I773:/.:<3=/+,-+7412?;,3+9;03+;23,6:323:/946++:93::-73:;2</2=30( R/ /560:/003192;,3232, ,38-7?21:3::(*9A0393, 3+, /:-06/:S / :19-,/7324/2-+7:93:: :/ ,3++30I?34I:-:.3?21:3::32M ?23:3+0323:;2</23192;,32( *+03+:+3,<A2-+I3192;, ?860:38-73: A? ;2:/.3.2/ :S1+17:0129/ :./,3?;.1200-,(g : ,/ :;.6++32/ S3+03: ;,32( V3++3],-446:3]6:-..32=303+7SA2,30+A,53+,-7;, : , I:-:.3?21:3::3+393,=3+:I /5-+,-./ / :;2</2= /T17T+3,T?32:?3.0-5M,5:(;.6++3: A873+,3 :/993+=3+7?; ,+30+-5;' V/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3 z BI00.8-9/?;,2-5 w BI002-:-.1<-8,3 Figur 16:*A-4''<)22)'5)*("5)<<*+"-*.'.<6#)*./*<"&.<*#7-C.-B),*$*),*)'5-),*&<$(.** P-:-.1412?21:3::32:194819?;3853:830032M68-.30I?32:.23,17321:S1+.+I003: : /83412=18,:193.:-:0323+,338538A?M S388: M 01?172/4-MS12,:91++30_(*9A0393,3+, /?;,2-532,30-:01272/,,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3:19,/ / ,32-+7/5+I002-:-.1<-8,3M:-,3+, /+, /83+/062412=18,(V/73+:2-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-8?21:3::32:19/ :0129./+, ,2372/,+I003:0-8;/+/8I:323 71

72 +I32-:-.1<-8, , /M:-,3+81./8-: /5=3+,38:3+34A2:0/5/80.+I003:0-8=5123.: /0-:.3=3+,38:32:193.:0329+3,<A2173.: ,.19932(H1./8-:32-+7J./ L/5?103+:-380:;2</23192;, :-:0323+,3237-: /54/.0-:.3=3+,38:32 &) 325/+:.38-7M179/+=/2,3293,-..3:/ =30412;7SA23.1< ,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,317 +I00.8-9/?;,2-5412;562,323+I002-:-.1<-8,3?; ,+/+-5;(Y /+ 9/+,3293,:-/0-9A0393,30+I00.8-9/?;,2-55-8,3++3:-: I?34I:-:.3?21:3::32-:0A22372/,.6++31??:0;-192;,32:194A2-..3=/25U20562,320:19 2-:-.1192;,32M93+:41237;3+,3?21:3::324239,383:-:01272/,5-85U23.+I S3+032-:-.181./ J : :./+3+,23:L( c3,3+932:i:039/0-:.7s3++197/+7/5,305--,/753019,3+3.:-:0323+,3 :;2</2=303+d;2:/.T :412=18, /?;, M:/90.6++:./? /85/2-/:S ,34-23./ /54I:-:.:;2</2=30M , / : / ,-./ ,+30 +3,:./832-+7/5+/0628-7:;2</2=30</:320?;P37D8-9(X-5-817:;,-: , /8360,I?+-+732/5,3++/ :;2</2=303+.+I I:-:.3?21:3::32( Flom Y2150:300./+9/+/80:;: I?324819' E</)#<),,)+<"('4819?;3853:830032:194A873/5: ,32+3,<A2175/++ J1403:194A873/5:+A: L-385/:+3,<A2:4380M =18, =-+, /:8A?( I&4,,*+<"('4819?; :194A873/5-+03+:+3,<A2J350(-.19<-+/:S1+ 93,:+A: L-3+<3723+:30?32-1,317-30<3723+:30192;,3M17,32 5/ <8-2/<:12<320-</..3+J./+17:;./883:]+3,<A2:4819]L( O853: :377S32+3:/.03179/+./ :3= ;,32 :195-8<8-2/ /, /+7:385/(V , =30412; -532.: /83<323,:./?:0-80/.f:19</22-./,32-+7M23-:-+7/5:-.2-+7: (35/ M93+17:; /55/++4A2-+753,=S38?/5, ( N ??:0;2-,3:/ ,3M:01235/::,2/73+3M17,/:?3:-380?; g:08/+,30m-f2a+,38/717-n-++9/2.jf1532a,"\\\l(o853+3=/28-034/88m93+ :0125/++4A2-+7( E ??:0;2: <2/003M9/::34A23+,35/::,2/7:199/+ =153,:/ ,234S12,:02A.?;X3:08/+,30M-B12,TB1273M:/90- :-,35/::,2/7?;g:08/+,30JF1532A,"\\\L(BI338538A?./+1??:0;:194A873/ I00-+7/59/::317< /53.:-:0323+,338538A?J/ /+ 17:;7; :.23,M53,/05/++9/::3+34A23293,:373.: ,32 :./,34819./+1?? /0-50:0123:./,32:194A873/53+,230+3,<A2:9A+:032M :0412,-9/+-..3=/2324/ ,=512,/+=;+, :-06/:S1+32( 32 Dagens risikobilde har man oversikt over gjennom lokale observasjoner, men også for eksempel gjennom tall for forsikringsutbetalinger til skade av storm, flom etc. i ulike områder. 72

73 V3003:.S3,,3:-:0-c-,0TB1273-/676:0)%%&M,/.2/40-7+3,<A2412;2:/ :197S12,3:012:./,3?;<18-732M-+42/: M-++9/2.17:.17( /7-+<"(]*#"(()-+<"(]*B%#,+<"(*"2*/$',)-+<"(: :194A873/5+3,<A2J- 4129/ :+AL17039?32/062412=18,-=383+3,<A2:438030:193853: ,38/5J/80:;309I3:0A223192;,33++: ;,3017 ] ]L(O853: /+/80:;1??:0;8/+7042/,32+3,<A23+=/24/80M 93+:/ ??:0;2-:0A22372/,-69-,,38</2+U2=300-8=512, :3 +3,<A23+4/8832(B1273:5/::,2/7:T :-030:53:3+JBXOL: :1+3./ :?2172/9 &C./ , ,+3,34/ : A+: ;,32:19=/2< ,320:19 2-:-.1192;,32(O ,32-+7:190-8://0198/7&#%%.9385-B1273 5/2:U28-760:/ :./,32M:0/2030BXO-"\\[93,4819:1+3./ ,32 :0A2238:3+?;:./,3?103+:-/ ;,3+3? ?21:S3.030(P$24-*8\ 5-:32= ;,32:19326+,32./ ;( Figur 17: Elvestrekk klassifisert som flomutsatte (strekninger for flomsonekartlegging) 35 Q92;,3+3=/2< ? A873+,3.8/::-4-:32-+7::I:039JBXO)%%&L' 33 &C BXO:4819:1+3./20?21:S3.0' ^^^(+53(+1$91,683:$91,683{"%\$?6<8-:=32{5-3^{?21,6_0(/:?e-O+0-0I*,wCZs[r-c3+6*,w)[) r:02b1kd1812w\\ddnnr:02qeaw BXO v&d<v&ox/++v&dv)n<v&o N8195/2:38 N819:1+ 3./20?21:S &strBoxColor=99CCFF&strYAH=%3ENVE%3E%3Cb%3EVann%3C%2Fb%3E%3EFlomva rsel%3eflomsonekartprosjektet%3eplanlagte+strekninger 73