Hva nytt kan vi gjøre - for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde?

Hva nytt kan vi gjøre - for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde? Arild Ragnøy Trafikksikkerhetsseksjonen Vegdirektoratet Versjon 2 pr 20/12 17

Offisiell ulykkesstatistikk : 600 Drepte 1946-2017 560 500 452 400 352 300 310 338 255 200 255 224 187 100 133 117 109* 94 94 0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 * Foreløpig2017 2

Litt om innholdet Vi best på TS i verden, men målsettingene framover er høye TØI har førsøkt forklare utviklingen Hva er utfordringene og hva kan vi velge Tiltak med høyt potensiale for ulykkesreduksjon Teknologi i bil (Noen bidrag fra BEST programmet) Hvordan skal vi lykkes? 3

TS arbeidet har bragt oss fremst i Europa Drepte pr million i Europa 2016 Kilde: Nasjonal tiltaksplan på veg 4

I neste forslag til NTP 2018-2029 er måltallene ennå tøffere 1800 1593 1600 Antall drepte og hardt skadde 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 840 821 600 500 1007 627 526 200 350 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Registrert antall drepte og hardt skadde Middels ambisjonsnivå (beregnet) Forslag til målkurve fram til 2030 Kurve for nullsituasjonen Høyt ambisjonsnivå (beregnet) 5

Tiltak for å redusere antall drepte /hardt skadde i tiden som kommer Hva gjør vi for å velge riktige tiltak Hvordan leter vi etter tiltak med stort potensiale framover? Trafikant tiltak Ny teknologi Kjøretøy tiltak Veg tiltak Vi samler kunnskap Vi evaluerer effekten av tiltak Arild Ragnøy, Vegdirektoratet 6

Medvirkende årsaker til ulykker Kunnskap om faktorer som kan medvirke til ulykker UAG rapportene våre 2005-2016 7

Andeler (%) av total nedgang i D+HS 3 30,8% er forklart med de aktuelle tiltakene DVS 69,2% er IKKE forklart 8

Hva er utfordringene framover? De «beste» tiltakene er brukt opp. Små tiltak med stor utbredelse kan ha stort potensiale NTP gåing og sykling vs nullvisjonen Gruppen «regelbrytere» er konstant? ITS på godt og vondt Befolknings- og adferdsendringer. Førerløse biler og kjøretøyteknologi 9

Hvilke tiltak er det som virker? Tiltak med stort potensiale for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde er et produkt av Effekt (reduksjon i %) Eksponering (kjtkm) Virkningsmekanisme (hvilke ulykker påvirkes) Dette betyr at et tiltak med stor utbredelse og beskjeden effekt ( som f eks en fartskampanje), kan ha et større potensiale en et tiltak med høy effekt og liten utbredelse (som f ekse ATK) Tiltak i kjøretøyparken kan ha stort potensiale 10

Tiltak i kjøretøyene Teknologi i bil teknologiutvikling - restriktive kjøretøytiltak Tre gode rapporter fra BEST-programmet: Førerstøttesystemer Kjøring uten fører-rett Restriktive kjøretøytiltak (I alle biler etter 2020) Tvingende ISA Alkolås Elektronisk fører kort 11

Smakebiter fra BEST-programmet Førerstøttesystemer - En litteraturstudie Rapporten utgjør «plattformen» i kunnskapen om effekten av ulike systemer Litteraturstudie for å kartlegge hvert enkelt førerstøttesystems TS-effekt - de estimerte effektene er basert på de antatt beste empiriske studiene som er funnet En Delphi-studie der eksperter ble konsultert i flere omganger for å utvikle mulige utviklingsscenarioer for implementering av de aktuelle førerstøttesystemene (TØI rapport 1450/2015) 12

Hvilke systemer skulle undersøkes? Det ble gjort et utvalg på grunnlag av at systemene skulle ha relativt liten utbredelse i dag samtidig som de måtte ha relativt stor virkning på drepte og hardt skadde (D+HS) Med andre ord: Gevinsten av effektiv implementering skulle være stor og foreløpig ikke tatt ut 13

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-29,4 % ALLE AVANSERTE VARIANTER -18,8 % ALLE BASISVARIANTER Effekter på alle D+HS -12,1 % -10,9 % -8,3 % -8,1 % -6,9 % -5,6 % -3,5 % -2,9 % Tvingende ISA Alkolås og ruslås Alkolås Kjørefeltholder Overstyrbar ISA Varslende ISA Feltskiftevarsler ACC med FCW og AEB Effekt på alle D+HS -0,9 % -0,8 % Fotgj.sykl.varsl. med AEB og BS Fotgj.sykl.varsl. med AEB -0,6 % Fotgjengervarsling med AEB 15

Forventet effekter på D+HS : Prosent Alle førerstøttesystem 16

Tiltak i kjøretøyet Tvangs-innfører restriktive tiltak i alle personbiler etter 2020 Et regne ekspriment Tvingende ISA Alkolås Elektroniske fører kort A 18

Dødsulykker ved kjøring uten førerrett Dybdestudier av UAG 2005-2015 Dobbelttellingen 19

Restriktive tiltak: Forventet nedgang i ulykker ved implementering i alle biler Førerautentisering Alkolås Fartssperre Førerautent + alkolås Førerautent + fartssperre Alkolås + fartssperre Alle tre tiltak 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Prosent Min Max 20

Scenario: Implementering i alle nye personbiler fra 2020 700 600 Antall drepte + hardt skadde 500 400 300 200 100-2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Trend Min effekt Max effekt Samlet effekt 2020-30 408 669 færre drepte eller hardt skadde 80 131 færre drepte 21

Avgjørende for den samlede effekten på D+HS er utskiftingstakten av biler Andelen av trafikkarbeidet med ny teknologi er avgjørende for den samlede effekt Uten «politikk» tar det 27 år å skifte ut en bilpark I mellomtiden er det viktig at vi har tiltak (og politi) 22

Noen forutsetninger for å lykkes: Fortsette det systematiske og målrettede trafikksikkerhetsarbeid som er basert på et faglig solid grunnlag og samarbeid mellom flere aktører Mange små (og store) tiltak nye grep og videreføring av tiltak vi vet fungerer. Mer bruk av restriktive tiltak kan være nødvendig En mer progressiv kjøretøypolitikk Et annet område kan være fartsgrensepolitikk Uansett vi trenger god kunnskap 23

Takk for oppmerksomheten arild.ragnoy@vegvesen.no 24

Litt Bonusmateriale 25

Kan utviklingen fra i antall D+HS fra 2000-2012 forklares? TØI rapport 1299/2014 26

Andeler (%) av forklart nedgang i D+HS fordelt på de ulike tiltakene TØI rapport 1299/2014 Utviklingen i antall D+HS 2000-2012 3 Totalt 9 «målbare» tiltak Kjøretøytiltak Vegtiltak Tiltak mot fart Tung MC Unge mopedister Unge bilførere i eneulykker Barn med fotgj og sykkel Beltebruk ATK 27

Andeler (%) av forklart nedgang i D+HS fordelt på de ulike tiltakene 3 En reduksjon i antall D+HS 330 av 1076 ble forklart DVs 30.8 % TØI rapport 1299/2014 28

31% TØI beskriver også noen tiltak som kan virke, men som er vanskelig å tallfeste Tiltak på vegnettet Reduserte fartsgrenser Vegbelysning Tiltak i kurver Utbedring av gangfelt Siderekkverk og sideterreng Utbedring av kryss/rundkjør Kjøretøytiltak Biler med forbedret kollisjonsvern for fotgjengere TØI rapport 1299/2014 29

31% Hvorfor blir det slik? (1) Ikke alle effekter av tiltak kan måles Ikke alle omfang kan måles like presist Vitenskapelig sikkerhet for at et tiltak virker Når vi skal trekke vitenskapelig holdbare konklusjoner om effekter, må vi være sikre på at vi gjør rett Dette er enklere når effekten er stor enn når den er liten. Det er vanskeligere å påvise effekten av en fartskampanje enn det er av ATK 30