OMSTILLING HVORFRA, HVORHEN? Haugesundskonferansen, Feb. 2, 2016 Tor E. Svensen Group Executive Vice President 1 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
Norsk Maritim Industri har gjennomført en stor omstilling de siste 20 årene 2
Den norske offshore service næringen er viktig for maritime Norge - tid for (videre) diversifisering? Offshore supply represent a large part of the market value for maritime Norway and their relative importance has increased Source: NR / Norske Offshore rederier, 2015 3
Økende offshore dominans de siste 20 årene 4
Total nybygg ordrebok på verdensbasis Total value is estimated to be 354 billion USD (Jan 2016) Merchant 204 billion USD (58%) Offshore 150 billion USD (42%) Value of the offshore orderbook has declined by 25% since 2014. Due to collapse of the sector, the real value of offshore contracts is likely to deteriorate significantly In the same period, the value of the merchant orderbook has remained almost unchanged 5
Nybygg ordrebok Korea, Kina, Japan og Norge 6
DNVGL nybygg-aktivitet Korea, Kina, Norge 7
DNVGL nybygg- og utstyr-aktivitet Korea, Kina, Norge 8
Hvordan ser vi den Internasjonale utviklingen? 9
Langt mellom lyspunktene, men. 10
Commodities en ny virkelighet $ 30-ish $ 40-ish $ 50-ish 11
Verdens sjøtransport Expected growth in 2015 10.7 billion tonnes (up 1.9% only) In Jan 2015, the growth was expected to be 4.1%! Except for crude oil and products, all other commodity growth reduced Iron Ore + 1 % Coal - 5 % Crude Oil + 4 % Oil Products + 7 % Containers + 4 % Gas & Chem. + 2% 12
Nye bygge kontrakter Unverified data claims 2083 new contracts (74.5 mill. GT) in 2015. We believe it is 20% less New building prices keep falling Shipyards desperate for contracts, predominantly merchant ships Financing becomes tricky Unavoidable defaults, delays, cancellations and bankruptcies 13
Hvilke store faktorer påvirker vår omstilling fremover? Oil price (& other raw materials) Bunker fuel cut by 50% Boosts oil transportation Limited storage capacity Offshore sector hit hard China Natural slowdown Shifting economy from exports driven to robust internal demand Impacts on the dry bulk market 4 th Industrial Revolution Digitization and Big Data Robots, Intelligent systems Automation and unmanned ships? New business models Green shipping Tier III NOx control in North American and Caribbean Sea ECAS from January 2016 Global sulphur cap 2020/2025 Post COP21 initiatives Compliance vs competitiveness 14
Omstilling Hvor ligger mulighetene? 15
Muligheter fremover for norsk maritim næring Connectivity, remote monitoring & operational control Alternative fuels Safety improvements Consolidations increased utilisation Cargo transport optimisation New business models 16
What can be digitalized will be digitalized Carly Fiorina 17
Eksempler på smart data muligheter, sett fra DNV GL perspektiv Model based approval Condition-based survey Dynamic barrier management The digital twin Automated technical review Cyber Security 18
We will see new business models developing in Shipping Traditional freight forwarders: Do you know this company? They are revolutionizing the taxi business globally Traditional ship and cargo brokers: Do you know this company? They unlock business potential from underutilized assets 19
Green shipping 20
Grønn shipping har sterke drivere og store muligheter Sulphur COP21 Particles CO2 NOx Ballast water MRV Pålagte myndighetskrav representerer store muligheter for norsk maritim industri. 21
Grønt Nærskipsfart Program i Norge et ypperlig eksempel på industri samarbeid og innovasjon Ambition: Establish the world s most effective and environmentally friendly coastal shipping Profitable emissions reductions Green jobs Increased competitive advantage Leading international position Lloyd s List Environmental Award 2015 for the unique collaboration between Government and Industry 22
Grønn shipping fra HFO til alternative energi kilder Traditional fuel HFO MDO MGO Realistic alternatives LNG ULHFO/Hybrid fuels Methanol LPG Fully electric Future options Hydrogen Gas to liquids (GTL) Compressed natural gas (CNG) Ethanol Vegetable oil Biogas Wind & Solar Nuclear? 23
LNG som brennstoff nå også som en mulighet for større skip From ferries and small-scale to a feasible option also for larger vessels From : Infrastructure under rapid development To : 600-700 LNG-as-fuel vessels by 2020 seems like a realistic figure 24
Grønn shipping & energieffektivitet fremdeles muligheter for forbedringer 2000 Mechanical propulsion Inefficient at low speeds Typical: 18 tons in DP modus 2008 Diesel electric Redundant Dynamic Pos. Typical: 9 tons DP modus 2012-16 Hybrid / combinations, cleaner emissions, big data Typical: 6-8 tons DP modus From single systems to complex advanced technology Lower fuel consumption 25
Avsluttende kommentarer OMSTILLE: Norge må utnytte og videreutvikle våre fortrinn til å etablere posisjoner (også utenom offshore service næringen) GRØNN NÆRSKIPSFART, ALTERNATIV FUEL: Bruk tiden mot 2020 på å realisere forslagene fra Grønt Nærskipsfarts-program DIGITAL REVOLUSJON, SMART DATA: IKT motiverer for nye foretningsmodeller og ny bruk av ny eller eksisterende teknologi; smart data, connectivity INTERNASJONALE MULIGHETER: Investere videre i internasjonale hunting activities hjemmemarkedet er ikke lenger stort nok for alle 26
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION www.dnvgl.com SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 27