Ny nedtur? Makroøkomiske utsikter Storaksjekvelden i Stavanger 30.september 2010 Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen / brw@first.no
Resesjonen er over! Hurra! Men økonomien er fortatt i elendig forfatning 2 2
Deflasjon i Japan, fare for deflasjon i USA (og andre steder) Source: 3
Fed er bekymret for deflasjon i morgen, ikke uten grunn Source: 4
Seddelpressen går og den vil gå enda fortere senere i år Image: Charles Goyette (Blue Wire) To effekter: 1. Økt etterspørsel presser pris opp, yield ned 2. Pengemengden i økonomien øker Source: 5
Historiske dager 6
Stimulansene hjalp godt i fjor. Nå avtar veksten Source: 7
Klart svakere trend for global industriproduksjon Source: 8
Hvorfor dempes veksten? Finanspolitikken har ikke mer å gi, blir strammet inn Lagerjusteringen stort sett over (midlertidig effekt) Etterspørselen er svak. Privat sektor må konsolidere Bankene ikke like villige som i gamle dager 9
What goes up, must come down. Kreditt vs. BNP Etter finanskriser: Gjeldsgraden tilbake Svakere vekst Høy arbeidsledighet Lavere inflasjon (ofte) Lavere boligpriser Kilde: Reinhart & Reinhart 10
Noen har begynt, ikke mange er ferdige Reinhart & Reinhart 11
Svak vekst, ja! Men ny nedtur? Nei, boblen har allerede sprukket 12 12
Svak vekst, ja! Men ny nedtur? Nei, nedsiden for boligbyggingen er begrenset 13
Svak vekst, ja! Men ny nedtur? Nei, privat sparing er høy nok 14
Svak vekst, ja! Men ny nedtur? Nei, bedriftene har kuttet investeringene 15 15
Hva kan da gå galt? Source: 16
Budsjettunderskuddene er problemet I praksis umulig å redusere statsunderskuddet før privat sparing faller 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 OECD Privat og offentlig "sparing" Netto finansinvesteringer - cash flow Sum = Driftsbalansen Kilde: OECD, First Privat sektor Offentlig sektor 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 17
EMU Frankrike Tyskland Spania Italia Irland Hellas Portugal Polen Island Sverige Danmark Sveits UK USA Japan OECD Det er to land som skiller seg ut 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0 Offentlig og privat cash-flow I % av BNP 2010, anslag OECD Privat -10.0-15.0 Offentlig Driftsbalanse 18 18
Men ikke alle har lånt seg til fant! HØY GJELD LAV VEKST LAV GJELD HØY VEKST 19 19
Fremvoksende økonomier har dratt lasset, og det vil fortsette 20 20
Konklusjon: Verden klarer seg, samlet sett Det blir svak vekst i rike land fremover Men ikke dobbel-dipp: Boblen har allerede sprukket. Sparingen høy nok Det kan godt bli fortsatt sterk vekst i fremvoksende økonomier Lav gjeld, lav inflasjon (stort sett) og verktøykassa er ikke tom Risikofakter: 1. Statsgjelden Statene kan bli tvunget til å stramme inn kraftig Eller de kan velte problemene over på sine långivere: Ny finanskrise 2. Er fremvoksende økonomier en boble? Vi er avhengige av fortsatt vekst i fremvoksende økonomier 3. Proteksjonisme, valutakrig Source: 21
Prisingen i nedre del av vårt P/B intervall Ny nedtur krever nedtur i verdensøkonomien 22
Vi vet hva som normalt er motoren: Verdensøkonomien 23
Nå kommer norsk økonomi i gang Forbruket: Opp etter utflating Sparingen høy, renten lav Forbrukertilliten opp og vi handlet mer i juli Boligbyggingen: Opp etter stort fall Entreprenørene selger, ordreinngangen øker Fastlandsbedriftenes investeringer: Opp etter stort fall Byggeaktiviteten, ordre kraftig opp. Kraftforsyning mer opp enn industrien ned Oljeinvesteringene: Opp i 2011 etter moderat fall Industri: Mer optimisme. Ordreinngang og produksjon opp Arbeidsmarkedet: Bedring etter moderat svekkelse Bedriftene vil ansette litt igjen 24
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