Renteforventninger. Bjørn Sivertsen SpareBank 1 SR-Markets

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1 Renteforventninger Bjørn Sivertsen SpareBank 1 SR-Markets

2 Hovedpunkter Internasjonalt Råvarer i støtet Aksjer Frakt rater Gjeldsnivå i Europa Kina Finansieringskostnader for banker Norge Oljeinvesteringer Renteforventninger Oppsummering Page 2

3 Utvalgte råvarepriser Page 3

4 Nok et bra år bak oss i aksjemarkedet Page 4

5 Fraktratene stiger med ikke i takt med børs Fraktraten, Baltic Dry 500 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 5

6 Brutto statsgjeld for utvalgte land i Europa 150, ,00 110,00 90,00 70,00 50,00 30,00 10,00-10,00 Kilde: Bank of International Settlement Page 6

7 Hva betaler PIIGS mer en Tyskland Page 7

8 OECD ledende indikatorer for Kina og råvarepriser Page 8

9 Finansieringskostnadene for banker stiger med stats-gjelds utfordringene Markit iboxx, Europe, Senior Financials, 5 Year, Bid Spread Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets 0 Page 9

10 Nasjonale forhold Page 10

11 Oljeinvesteringene øker igjen i 2011 Page 11

12 Industriproduksjonen har økt kraftig men vi har enda mye å gå på 10,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10,0-12,5-15, Kapasitetsutnyttelsen Industriproduksjonen, % år/år 87,5 85,0 82,5 80,0 77,5 75,0 72,5 70,0 67,5 65,0 62,5 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 12

13 Kredittveksten har kommet godt ned 22,5 20,0 17,5 15,0 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10, Bedrifter (eks. finans) Husholdningene Kredittveksten (K2) Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Bank Page 13

14 Lange renter stiger igjen EMU: 10 års swap NORGE USA 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets Page 14

15 Vår prognose for norske renter jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt Foliorenten 5 års swap 10 års swap 3 mnd NIBOR feb jun okt 2011 Source: Reuters EcoWin, SR-Markets 0 Page 15

16 Dagens renter NOK 3 mnd Nibor: 2,53% Swaprenter 1 år: 2,98% 3 år: 3,18% 5 år: 3,58% 7 år: 3,85% 10 år: 4,19% Page 16

17 Oppsummering Norges Bank hever rentene våren 2011 Rentene vil øke gradvis i 2011 (2-4 ganger) Høyere lånekostnader for bankene vil begrense Norges Bank Sterk NOK kan bli en utfordring Gjeldsbyrden i Europa begrenser veksten Rentene forblir lave ut 2012 Kina kan muligens skuffe i forhold til vekstforventningene i 2011 Inflasjons-sjokk og råvareprisutvikling gir risk på oppsiden Page 17

18 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by SR-Markets, the securities firm of Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, ( SR-Markets ), solely for use at this presentation and is furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. The contents of this presentation have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or to purchase securities, nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or to purchase securities This presentation should not be considered as the giving of investment advice by SR-Markets, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank or any of its shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees or advisers. Each party to whom this presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the information contained in the presentation after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary. In particular, any estimates or projections or opinions contained herein necessarily involve significant elements of subjective judgment, analysis and assumptions and each recipient should make its own verifications in relation to such matters. This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the involved company s or companies actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performances or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as believe, expect, anticipate, intend, may, plan, estimate, should, could, aim, target, might, will, intend, estimate, predict, potential or continue, the negative of such terms or other comparable terminology. These statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially. In evaluating these statements, prospective investors should specifically consider various factors. These factors may cause the actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statement. Although SR-Markets believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, it cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement. The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Except as required by law, SR-Markets undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this presentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations or publicly release the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements which SR-Markets may make to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This presentation is not for presentation or transmission into United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, Switzerland or Australia. This also applies to the United States or to any U.S. person, as that term is defined under Regulation S promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Accordingly, none of SR-Markets, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank or any of its principal owners or subsidiary undertakings or any of such person s officers or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document, including any reproduction or redistribution. 18 Page 18