Arbeidsmetode analytikere Kristian Tunaal 3. april 2006
Overblikk Markedssyn Offensivt/defensivt => sektorvalg Selskapsvalg Endelig resultat: KJØP: SELG: MELLOMCASE: gode selskaper i gode sektorer dårlige selskaper i dårlige sektorer individuell vurdering 2
Markedsanalyse Makrobilde Rente Vekst Generell uro Selskapsprising Karakteristika i markedet Offensive vs. defensive sektorer Oljeprissyn 3
Selskapsanalyse Kilder: Regnskaper Selskapet Konkurrenter Kunder NB: alle har sin agenda... Generell lærdom "Stol aldri på et regnskap" Gode regnskaper gjerne bedre enn de ser ut...og motsatt 4
Selskapsanalyse Soliditet Lønnsomhet Risiko Investeringsbehov Vekstmuligheter Eiere/eieres agenda 5
Selskapsanalyse Soliditet: Balanse Kontantstrøm Likviditet Andre forpliktelser (pensjonsforpliktelser, capitalized lease) Lønnsomhet Kontantstrøm Fortjeneste Avkastning på eiendeler/avkastning på egenkapital 6
Soliditet Risiko Finansiell risiko Operasjonell risiko Investeringsbehov For vedlikehold For vekst Vekst kan kjøpes for dyrt Investeringsbehov påvirker både kontantstrøm tilgjengelig for selskapet, fremtidig avkastning på eiendeler og soliditet Eiere/eieres agenda 7
Fundamental analyse Kontantstrøm Relativ prising Fordeler Teoretisk korrekt Viser investorers valgmuligheter Forutsetter sektor ev. int. sammenlikning Ulemper Baserer seg på lang horisont => vanskelig å forutsi Forutsetter at investorer har valgmuligheter Grunn til rabatt? Sum-of-the-parts Viser selskapets muligheter Relevant for konglomerater Er det aktuelt for selskapet? (Norsk Hydro) Net Asset Value Hva kan selskapets eiendeler selger for? Shipping og eiendom Forutsetter lett omsettelige aktiva Er salg av eiendeler aktuelt? 8
Selskapsanalyse Valg av verdsettelsesgrunnlag Selskapstype Omsettelighet av eiendeler Hvor rendyrket virksomheten er Hvor lett det er å finne sammenliknbare selskaper (Ref. Tomra) Hvilken fase i utviklingen selskapet er i F.eks. Oppstart vs. modent Fortjeneste Gjeldsgrad 9
Sentimentanalyse Ikke kun analytikeres ansvar... Meglere og kunder har egne oppfatninger Teknisk analyse Generell markedsindikatorer 10
Oljerelaterte - aksjekursutvikling Return last 12 month. - vs. The S&P 500 (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 10 10.2 44.0 14.0 70.7 12.3 5.1 8.3 32.0 1.8 13.6 5.1 67.5 11.1 41.4 39.4 34.8 S&P 500 OSEBX 15.1 13.2 13.6 27.8 Index Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discr Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Info Tech Telecom 11
Norge prising vs. internasjonale peers 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Forward P/B PHLX Oil Service Norsk oil service nå like dyr som amerikanske 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Forward P/B OSEBX Oil Service Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Svært uvanlig i historisk perspektiv 12
Norge prising vs. internasjonale peers 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 Forward P/E S&P 500 Oil Forward P/E OSEBX Oil Tilsvarende gjelder innen oljeaksjer 8 Jan 2005 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Jan 2006 13
Norge - oljeprisforventninger 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Forventninger til oljepris (future-kurve Brent Blend) Current 1 Year Ago Oljemarkedet tror på fortsatt høye oljepriser Oljeselskapene har underinvestert i flere år 14
Chinese crude imports in February still above last year's average after strong January. 15.0 CHINA Imports of Crude Oil 12.5 February: 11.2 (Av. 2005: 10.6) 10.0 Ton (millions) 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Source: Reuters EcoWin 15
Non-OPEC tilbudsvekst synker 53 Total non-opec supply estimate changes (IEA) Million barrels per day 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Months from end of estimated year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: IEA 16
Oljeprisforventninger 70 Forward Curve Brent (IPE) 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 02 / 2006 04 / 2006 06 / 2006 08 / 2006 10 / 2006 12 / 2006 06 / 2007 12 / 2007 06 / 2008 12 / 2008 06 / 2009 12 / 2009 06 / 2010 12 / 2010 06 / 2011 12 / 2011 06 / 2012 15.02.2006 DnB NOR BASE CASE 17 DnB NOR Markets tror på fallende priser
Forventet økt ledig kapasitet fremover 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: IEA 18. million barrels per day USD/barrel 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Q3'04 Q1'05 Q3'05 Q1'06E Q3'06E Q1'07E Q3'07E Spare capacity, IEA estimates Spare capacity, DnB NOR Markets estimates Oil price, Brent
Inventories on the up Days forward cover, OECD 100 90 80 days forward cover 70 Q1'93 Q1'94 Q1'95 Q1'96 Q1'97 Q1'98 Q1'99 Q1'00 Q1'01 Q1'02 Q1'03 Q1'04 Q1'05 Distillates inventory now high gasoline moving upwards and crude has been high for a while 19
Oljepris andre forhold Olje er politikk! Nigeria Oljeproduksjon ledd i intern maktkamp Venezuela Chavez sterkt anti-amerikansk Iran Opptrapping rundt atomprogrammet Russland Relativt stabilt Irak Kommentar overflødig... Vil være usikkerhet rundt oljetilbudet i lang tid fremover 20
Viktige parametre - oljepris Høy oljepris Norge tjener Statoil/NHY m.m. tjener Sterk norsk konsum Sterk norsk valuta Positivt for Oslo Børs 21
Utvalgte aksjer - avkastning 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - (20) (40) Avkastning utvalgte aksjer (siste 12 mnd.) 22
Oil service - verdikjeden Seismic Sampling Utforskning Boring Exploration Drilling Production Drilling Accomodatio Subsea services n Felt utvikling Engineering Fabrication/ Construction Subsea construction market Innstallering Produksjon Avvikling Products & Technologi es Assembly Heavy Lift Subsea Construction Platform Supply & Anchor Handling Productio n & Operation Maintenance & Modification s Heavy Lift De - commissioni ng 23
Verdikjede Offshore Utforskning Utbygging Drift Avvikling Seismikk PGS TGS GGS Leteborring Fred. Olsen Energy Smedvig Ocean Rig M.m. Aker Kværner Acergy Subsea 7 Prosafe Bjørge Technor Corrocean Supply Drift & Vedlikehold: Aker Kværner Acergy Subsea 7 Prosafe Bjørge Technor Corrocean Borring Supply Farstad Havila District Offshore Eidesvik Solstad Drift & Vedlikehold: Aker Kværner Acergy Subsea 7 Prosafe Bjørge Technor Corrocean Borring Supply 24
Verftene er bortbestilt 1,000 CGT 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Hyundai Samsung Daewoo Mitsubishi Universal Mitsui STX Shippbuild. Imabari Capacity Years Average years Dalian Hanjiin H.I. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Years Asiatiske verft fullbooket i flere år fremover Europeiske verft ikke på banen Kinesiske verft har store konverteringskost nader Source: Lorentzen Stemoco and Clarkson 25
Etterspørselsoverskudd for flytende rigger 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 number of rigs 140 135 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Demand Supply Source: ODS 26
Kapasitetsutnyttelse grundtvannsrigger 115 % 110 % 105 % 100 % 95 % Kapasitetsutnyttelsen allerede rundt 100% 90 % 85 % 80 % 75 % 70 % 65 % jan.91 aug.91 mar.92 okt.92 mai.93 des.93 jul.94 feb.95 sep.95 apr.96 nov.96 jun.97 jan.98 aug.98 mar.99 okt.99 mai.00 des.00 jul.01 feb.02 sep.02 apr.03 nov.03 jun.04 jan.05 aug.05 mar.06e okt.06e Source: ODS 27
Almost no ultra-deepwater availability until 2008 WaterDepth Name 12 000 Bingo 9000-4 8 500 Cajun Express 10 000 Stena Drill Max 10 000 Discoverer Enterprise 7 500 Ocean Confidence 8 000 ENSCO 7500 10 000 Aker Semi Tbn1 7 500 SeaDrill 10 10 000 SeaDrill 12 10 000 West E-Drill 7 500 GSF Development Driller I 10 000 Eirik Raude 10 000 Mosvold Drillship Tbn1 7 500 Deepwater Frontier 10 000 Maersk Semi Tbn1 7 500 Deepwater Pathfinder 10 000 Aker Semi Tbn2 10 000 Deepwater Expedition 10 000 Deepwater Discovery 7 500 SeaDrill 11 8 200 West Navigator 7 500 GSF Development Driller II 7 500 Sedco Energy 10 000 Discoverer Deep Seas 8 000 Ocean Endeavor 10 000 Noble Clyde Boudreaux 7 800 GSF Explorer 10 000 Maersk Semi Tbn2 10 000 GSF C.R. Luigs 10 000 Saipem 10000 8 000 Deepwater Nautilus 8 900 Noble Paul Wolff 10 000 Petromena Semi Tbn1 10 000 Belford Dolphin 7 500 Discoverer Seven Seas 10 000 GSF Jack Ryan 8 038 Stena Tay 8 100 Deepwater Millennium 7 500 Sedco Express 8 200 Leiv Eiriksson 10 000 Discoverer Spirit 8 000 Deepwater Horizon 7 500 Ocean Clipper 12 000 Noble Danny Adkins 10 000 Noble Dave Beard 8 500 ENSCO 8500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Almost no rigs available until the newbuilds enter the market Expect contracts on several of the newbuilds during the first half of 2006 Eastern Drilling has been marketed for a while and SeaDrill have stated that they will achieve a contract on one semi during Q1/06 Contract Option Yard/upgrade/enroute Source: ODS and DnB NOR Markets 28
Også dypvannsmarkeded er stramt for rigger Worldwide Supply and Demand for Ultra Deepwater Rigs 1999-2008 (>7500 feet) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 jan-99 jun-99 nov-99 apr-00 sep-00 feb-01 jul-01 des-01 mai-02 okt-02 mar-03 aug-03 jan-04 jun-04 nov-04 apr-05 sep-05 feb-06 jul-06 des-06 mai-07 okt-07 mar-08 aug-08 Existing contract Options Requirements Possibles Supply Source: Fearnleys Offshore, ODS and DnB NOR Markets 29 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Må også ta høyde for mulige nye prosjekter
...or deepwater Worldwide Supply and Demand for Deepwater Rigs 1997-2007 (>3000 feet) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Fearnleys Offshore, ODS and DnB NOR Markets 30 Tight market in the foreseeable future Remember the backlog of projects! nov-07 number of rigs number of rigs 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 jan-97 jun-97 nov-97 apr-98 sep-98 feb-99 jul-99 des-99 mai-00 okt-00 mar-01 aug-01 jan-02 jun-02 nov-02 apr-03 sep-03 feb-04 jul-04 des-04 mai-05 okt-05 mar-06 aug-06 jan-07 jun-07 Existing contract Options Requirements Possibles Supply Development drilling
jan.05 jan.04 Ratene i sterk oppgang Day-rates for 5000+ ft floaters 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 USD/day 150 100 50 0 jan.94 jan.95 jan.96 jan.97 jan.98 jan.99 jan.00 jan.01 jan.02 jan.03 Average Low High Source: ODS and DnB NOR Markets 31
Ownerships Independent Oil Tools (699 NOKm) 20.0% 34.4% Petrojack (1 231 NOKm) 5.4% 29.0% Petrolia Drilling (1 767 NOKm) 14.2% Petromena (507 NOKm) 19.3% 50% 19.8% Awilco Offshore (5 333 NOKm) Mosvold Drilling (1 880 NOKm) 38% Offshore Rig Services (1 507NOKm) 1.8% (Geveran) 39.5% 50% SeaDrill (13 003 NOKm) ~40% Smedvig (11 182 NOKm) Venture Drilling (joint venture) Premium Drilling (joint venture) 39.8% 50% 50% Eastern Drilling (2 160 NOKm) Sinvest (5 078 NOKm) 6.27% Ocean Rig (8 376 NOKm) 32
33
SeaDrill (BUY) The Consolidator 3-month Target: 65 NOK Analyst: Martin Huseby Karlsen martin.huseby.karlsen@dnbnor.no +47 22 94 89 31/+47 98 83 58 39
The Company SeaDrill started as John Fredriksens' investment vehicle in the offshore rig sector. The Company was founded in May in 2005 based at Bermuda. The goal is to create a world leading drilling contractor with focus on Asia/West Africa and worldwide deepwater areas within five years. SeaDrill aims to both own and operate offshore drilling units. Growth from new-building activity, second-hand, M&A and strategic ownership positions 35
A Busy Summer 8 private placements since May Market cap. from 203 USDm to 1.4 USDbn since May 2005 Date Shares Price (USD) Total (USDm) 12.05.2005 100,000,000 2.03 203.0 02.06.2005 10,000,000 3.00 30.0 10.06.2005 10,000,000 3.80 38.0 28.06.2005 1,212,069 4.49 5.4 28.06.2005 41,131,871 4.54 186.7 14.07.2005 35,695,822 6.10 217.7 25.07.2005 10,000,000 6.56 65.6 19.08.2005 12,000,000 9.00 108.0 Total 220,039,762 854.5 Source: SeaDrill 36
The Fleet Operating units in the fleet include: 3 jack-ups 2 FPSOs Assets in order: 4 jack-ups 3 semi-submersibles Options: 1 jack-up 3 semi-submersibles Source: SeaDrill 37
Strategic financial assets 33% in Apexindo Indonesian based Drilling contractor 5 offshore, 11 onshore rigs and 1 high spec jack-up in order (delivery January 2007) Joint venture Agreement Access to "Software" Administrative/Drilling personnel 24.5% stake in Ocean Rig recently sold Holds 40% of Mosvold Drilling and has a bid for the company which is likely to fail at the current bid level Has a small stake in Smedvig and is currently bidding for the Company at 205 NOK for A-shares and 165 NOK for the B-shares, only condition is above 50% acceptance. Pre-acceptance from 40% of the votes. Deadline Wednesday next week Source: SeaDrill and DnB NOR Markets research 38
SeaDrill (BUY) Summary Assessment Our best pick within the new-building companies. Also holds an interesting position in Mosvold Drilling acquired at an attractive price. Incorporation of Mosvold into SeaDrill would make SeaDrill control even more of the new-builds. Remember than SeaDrill also is a take-over target for US companies that would 'do something big'. Actionable management in which we have high confidence. Risk related to establishing an operating organization, but we are confident that SeaDrill management will solve this. Currently holds interesting positions in Apexindo, Smedvig and Mosvold Triggers going forward: Contracts on the units in order, contract on the first semi to be in place Q1/06 Consolidation Execution of options/ordering of more units Target price gives 2009 EV/EBITDA and P/E of 4.0x and 5.1x, respectively. Conclusion BUY recommendation and 3-month target of 65 NOK. 39
Ocean Rig (HOLD) News Assessment Potential refinancing ' P/E multiple power' and change of shareholders Sinvest sold 4 million shares in OCR @ 91.50 NOK and now owns 5.9 millions shares or 6.27%. SeaDrills 24.5% stake tried placed after close y'day to financial investors. Outcome currently unknown. Open shareholder structure in Ocean Rig, a take-over candidate again? but why did not industrial players take the shares y'day: Rapid development, Industrial players usually need time Pricing? Ocean Rig has previously announced a buy-back program and capital repayment program. Likely to increase debt through long contracts on the rigs and return capital to shareholders when the strong cash-flow generation starts. Must find ways of return capital avoid to get negative equity, should be possible through finance technicalities. Will improve P/E multiples and increase risk (and upside potential) in the case. No changes in free cash flow and slightly increasing EV/EBITDA mult. We currently have a HOLD recommendation with target 90 NOK on Ocean Rig. Due to the potential shareholder friendly repayment program, we will revaluate our recommendation and target price. Conclusion Potential shareholder friendly repayment program. Target and rec. under revaluation, but still buts & ifs. Also upside to our est. day-rates Analyst: Martin Huseby Karlsen, +47 22 94 89 31; martin.huseby.karlsen@dnbnor.no 40
Ocean Rig now Ocean Rig HOLD Ticker code (OSE): OCR.OL Price target (NOK) 90 Upside potential -2% Share price 14.2 USD Market capitalisation 1,264 MUSD USD/NOK 6.5 Share price 92.0 NOK Market capitalisation 8,217 MNOK (MUSD) Income statement 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E Revenues 103 89 197 258 299 326 348 EBITDA 50-1 87 170 212 237 259 EBIT -175-45 33 119 162 190 213 Net financial items -30-61 -70-33 -24-22 -19 Pre tax results -205-106 -37 86 138 168 194 Net income -205-107 -40 78 124 151 175 EPS (reported) -3.8-1.6-0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 EBITDA margin 48% -1% 44% 66% 71% 73% 74% EBIT margin -170% -51% 17% 46% 54% 58% 61% Net result margin -199% -121% -20% 30% 42% 46% 50% Long term debt 589 572 572 572 570 567 563 Net interest-bearing debt 563 517 513 401 284 163 12 Multiples 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E P/E n.m. n.m. n.m. 16.8 10.8 8.9 7.7 P/CF n.m. n.m. 90.8 10.1 7.7 6.8 6.1 EV/EBIT n.m. n.m. 53.3 14.3 9.9 7.9 6.3 EV/EBITDA 15.0 n.m. 20.4 10.0 7.6 6.3 5.2 EV/SALES 7.3 10.4 9.0 6.5 5.4 4.6 3.9 P/BOOK 0.4 1.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 Source: DnB NOR Markets (estimates) and Ocean Rig 41
Aker Drilling Description: 2 x 2 contract for 6th generation, ultra-deepwater, harsh environment, winterised semi-submersible rigs Aker H-6e rig design The most advanced rigs in the current market Turn-key contract with Aker Kværner (Stord) Ready-to-drill: February 2008 and October 2008 Option to be declared by June 2006 Rig price currently 640 USDm including the 2 options and 691 excluded Pros State of the art drilling rig Sponsor with capital market track record Reputable yard with strong track record Competitive delivery dates Fully funded Cons No rig manager in place High rig price requires premium day rates Limited cash investment by Sponsor 42
Estimates Aker Drilling Ticker code (OSE): N/A Shareprice 39 NOK Market cap 3,655 NOKm (USDm) Income statement 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E Revenues 0 0 0 210 361 361 EBITDA -23-2 -2 153 264 264 EBIT -23-2 -2 133 224 224 Net financial items -3-7 -7-24 -39-36 Pre tax results -26-9 -9 109 184 187 Net income -26-8 -8 98 166 169 EBITDA margin n.m. n.m. n.m. 73% 73% 73% EBIT margin n.m. n.m. n.m. 63% 62% 62% Net result margin n.m. n.m. n.m. 47% 46% 47% Multiples 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E P/E n.m n.m n.m 6.8 4.0 4.0 EV/EBIT n.m n.m n.m 9.6 4.8 4.3 EV/EBITDA n.m n.m n.m 8.3 4.1 3.7 EV/SALES n.m n.m n.m 6.1 3.0 2.7 Assumes bond to be converted in 2008, representing 17.4 million new shares Source: DnB NOR Markets (estimates) and Aker Drilling Source: DnB NOR Markets 43
Main regions Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Strong market Highly segmented Deepwater (> 1,000m) High tech, lower comp. Shallow rim Low tech, high comp. Decomm. projects forward Europe / North Sea Mature market Turnkey (EPIC) contracts Decomm. projects forward Caspian Sea Land-locked BP dominated Still export pipeline dependent Subsea construction market Latin America / Brazil Mega / EPIC projects Deepwater 1,000-1,500m High tech. & flexibles, flowline West Africa Strong growth 2-3 large projects per year Segmented EPICs Deepwater > 1,000m Strong IOC players Asia Pacific Growth market area Today low tech, shallow water Future deepwater Remote locations Source: Subsea 7 / DSND 44
Subsea players: 30 starters, 3/4 majors remaining Subsea construction players <-- 90 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Technip Coflexip Technip Perry CSO Stena Duco Aker Deepwater Wellstream Wellstream 2W Rockwater Halliburton Smit Subsea Subsea 7 Subsea Int'l Ugland Offshore Seateam Siem Offshore Oceaneering Stolt ROV drill support ops. Stolt Offshore SNI Stolt-Comex Seaway Comex Stolt Offshore --> 2006: Ceanic Acergy Litwin ETPM Paragon Eng. Stolt GoM ops. Cal Dive IPO Aquatica Inc. Cal Dive Canyon Offshore Saipem Micoperi Saipem Sonsub EMC Bouygues Brown & Root Source: Strategic Offshore Research, DnB NOR Markets research 45
Acergy Subsea construction players Ill.: Stolt Offshore Hyperflow TM > 5,000 employees Turnkey subsea contractor Project Management Conceptual and detailed design Fabrication Installation and commissioning Flow-line / pipeline Lay Trunk-line Installation Inspection, repair and maintenance (IRM) Decommissioning services Major areas: AfMed, NEC 46
Acergy 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007e Salgsinntekter USDm 1,437 1,482 1,112 1,483 1,770 2,050 EBIT USDm (124) (380) 29 152 230 259 EPS USD (1.76) (4.71) 0.04 0.61 0.90 1.06 P/E Justert X nm nm 25.6 31.4 15.2 12.9 EV/EBIT justert X 5.2 nm 131.4 6.6 10.1 7.4 EBIT margin X nm nm 2.6 % 10.2 % 13.0 % 12.6 % CMPR(OSEBX&OS.Last) CMPR(STO&OS.Last) 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 01.06.2005 01.09.2005 01.12.2005 01.03.2006 47
Subsea 7 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007e Salgsinntekter USDm 0 724 834 1,297 1,505 1,761 EBIT USDm 0 (26) (11) 101 164 243 EPS USD 0.00-0.32-0.20 0.30 0.77 1.13 P/E Justert X nm nm nm 29.3 16.6 11.2 EV/EBIT justert X nm nm 77.7 15.4 11.0 7.3 EBIT margin X nm nm nm 7.8 % 10.9 % 13.8 % CMPR(OSEBX&OS.Last) CMPR(SUB&OS.Last) 01.06.2005 01.09.2005 01.12.2005 01.03.2006 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 48
Hvorfor aktiviteten vil øke: Subsea construction outlook Source: Cambridge Energy Research Ass., Cera Advisory Services 49
In the news Schlumberger, 20 January 2006 (4Q results) "Shortages of people and equipment across the industry are likely to result in cost inflation and project delays, placing a high premium on reliable suppliers of both technology and skilled personnel." Chevron, 8 December 2005: Appendix 2006 exploration and spending budget increasing 35% over 2005 to USD 14.8bn "impact from [ ] increased industry-wide costs for materials and services." 50
Offshore generelle faktorer Positivt Fortsatt høy oljepris Kontrakter Negativt Oljeprisfall Kostnadsoverskridelser Særlig farlig på slutten av et prosjekt Bekreftelse om prosjekter i rute 51
Disclaimer This report is issued subject to the General Business Terms for DnB NOR Markets. The report is based on information believed to be reliable, but DnB NOR Markets does not represent that the information in the report is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restricting the exchange of information between different parts of DnB NOR Bank ASA may prevent employees of DnB NOR Markets who are preparing this report from utilising or being aware of information available in DnB NOR Bank ASA and/or affiliated companies and which may be relevant to the recipients decisions. Any opinions expressed reflect DnB NOR Markets' judgment at the time the report was prepared and are subject to change without notice. The report is not to be construed as a representation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or participate in any investment strategy. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or indirect (including consequential) loss or expense arising from the use of this report. DnB NOR Bank ASA and/or its affiliated companies and/or its officers, directors and employees may be a market maker or hold a position in any instrument or related instrument discussed in this report, and may perform or seek to perform financial advisory and investment banking services related to such instruments. DnB NOR Markets may act as manager or co-manager for this company in private and/or public placement and/or resale not publicly available or commonly known (equity and/or debt financial instruments). For further details contact DnB NOR Markets at +47 22 94 88 81. Distribution of analyses is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this analysis may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. Any U.S. recipient of this report (other than a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) that would like to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should contact and place orders in the United States with DnB NOR Markets, Inc., which, without in any way limiting the foregoing, accepts responsibility (solely for the purposes of and within the meaning of Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934) for this report and its dissemination in the United States. Information on the General Business Terms for DnB NOR Markets is available at www.dnbnor.no. This report is for clients only, and not for publication. DnB NOR Markets - a division of DnB NOR Bank ASA registered in Norway number NO 984 851 006 (the Register of Business Enterprises), under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Kredittilsynet). DnB NOR Markets. 52