Globale konjunkturer og utviklingen i finansmarkedene Drammen 21. april 2010 Jens Petter Olsen jeols@fokus.no 94 17 10 30
Agenda Risikobildet Global makro Norsk økonomi Rentebildet Valuta 2
I. Risikobildet 3
02.09.08 15.09.08 26.09.08 09.10.08 23.10.08 05.11.08 18.11.08 01.12.08 12.12.08 26.12.08 09.01.09 23.01.09 05.02.09 18.02.09 03.03.09 16.03.09 27.03.09 09.04.09 22.04.09 05.05.09 18.05.09 29.05.09 11.06.09 24.06.09 08.07.09 21.07.09 03.08.09 14.08.09 27.08.09 09.09.09 22.09.09 05.10.09 16.10.09 29.10.09 11.11.09 24.11.09 07.12.09 18.12.09 05.01.10 18.01.10 29.01.10 11.02.10 24.02.10 09.03.10 22.03.10 02.04.10 Kredittpremien til USA har gått opp etter Dubai/Hellas men har kommet inn fra de høyeste nivåene Premie for kredittforsikring på USA i basispunkter pr. år 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 4
Europa har også kommet inn fra de høyeste nivåene 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 5
Debt sustainability in Europe - under pressure EU Commission fcst, Autumn 2009 6
Austr ia Belgium Finland Fr ance Ger many Gr eece Ir eland Italy Nether lands Por tugal Spain Austr ia Belgium Finland Fr ance Ger many Gr eece Ir eland Italy Nether lands Por tugal Spain The problem of self-reinforcing debt accumulation Lower nominal growth and higher yields result in a stronger snow-ball effect than before the crisis 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Nominal GDP growth 2000-07 IMF Forecast 2011-14 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Yield on 10 year benchmark government bond Average 2000-2007 Current 7
Bankene har høye fundingkostnader relativt til industrien 300 250 200 150 100 Sr Fin Industri 50 0 8
Kredittpremiene (CDS)mer enn halvert for selskapsobligasjoner 300 250 200 150 EUR IG USA IG 100 50 0 #N/A 07.12.2007 30.01.2009 26.06.2009 9
II.Global makro 10
mar.99 mar.00 mar.01 mar.02 mar.03 mar.04 mar.05 mar.06 mar.07 mar.08 mar.09 Den globale veksten tar seg opp Annualisert vekst i GDP 10 5 0 USA EUR -5 UK JAP -10-15 11
ledet av industrisektoren PMI Manufacturing 65 60 55 50 45 40 USA EUR UK CHI 35 30 12
Two possible equilibrium paths 2008 was year of melt down Trend production 2009 was year of recovery based on massive fuel on the global economy Recovery (65%) 2010 is the moment of truth: will the global economy get free from gravity as the fuel tapers off? Markets will differ between pricing recovery versus long term slump a la Japan Long term slump (35%) 13
USA 14
Savings rate adjustment near complete - incomes remains the single most important driver of consumption 12 % af NDI 10 8 6 Savings rate % af NDI 12 10 8 6 4 2 Fair value model (wealth and tranfers) 4 2 0 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0
Theme #2: Growth sustainability Payrolls recovery is key for sustainability 16
Theme #2: Growth sustainability Labour market indicators point to imminent job growth 17
Theme #2: Growth sustainability Global recovery: Massive pent up demand maybe companies have overreacted? Or were forced to? 18
US: Don t under-estimate the force of recovery dynamics Consensus Danske 19
The Fed usually waits for unemployment rate to decline 20
Theme #4: Exit strategy Timing of is hikes is the big issue Three approaches Speed limit The pace of recovery Output gap The level of slack and inflation Judgment Zero rate Fiscal exit Regulation 4.5 % % 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Fed funds Forecast Futures market 0.0 08 09 10 11 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
EUROLAND 22
Is German recovery faltering? - Hard data suggest so, soft data suggest the opposite 23
Exports also still growing strongly Demand from exports still strong Eur exports driven by Asia 24
ECB to hike when unemployment is on downward trend 25
ASIA 26
Asia strong engine of growth in world economy Asia 25% of global economy Exports and private demand to take over as growth drivers in 2010 Focus shifting to avoiding inflation CNY appreciation to resume in Q2 27
The world is no longer only dependent on US consumer Retail sales in US and China Change in retail sales, current USD 400 USD bn China USD bn 400 200 200 0 0-200 USA -200-400 98 00 02 04 06 08-400 28
Summary beware of low visibility and high volatility 2010 is moment of truth but also year of very low visibility We believe global recovery is sustainable as labour market turns soon but there will be less tailwind from growth momentum and that will challenge the markets Still plenty of focus on debt sustainability to come with focus possibly shifting to US and UK next % y/ y Our fcst still slightly above consensus - but less so than last year D anske B ank 2009 2010 C o nsen sus IM F OEC D D anske B ank C o nsen sus IM F OEC D USA -2.5-2.4-2.7-2.5 3.2 2.6 1.5 2.5 Euroland -3.9-3.9-4.2-4.0 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.9 Japan -5.1-5.7-5.4-5.3 2.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 China 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.3 9.6 9.5 9.0 10.2 Global -0.9-1.1 3.9 3.1 Asia (ex Japan and China) 2.3 5.8 CEE and. CIS -7.4 0.9 Change from previous fcst USA -0.1 0.0 Euroland -0.2 0.0 Japan 0.0-0.1 China 0.0 +0.1 29 29
III.Norsk makro 30
01.06.2007 01.07.2007 01.08.2007 01.09.2007 01.10.2007 01.11.2007 01.12.2007 01.01.2008 01.02.2008 01.03.2008 01.04.2008 01.05.2008 01.06.2008 01.07.2008 01.08.2008 01.09.2008 01.10.2008 01.11.2008 01.12.2008 01.01.2009 01.02.2009 01.03.2009 01.04.2009 01.05.2009 01.06.2009 01.07.2009 01.08.2009 01.09.2009 01.10.2009 01.11.2009 01.12.2009 01.01.2010 01.02.2010 01.03.2010 01.04.2010 Finanssektoren har kommet tilbake i Norge Utviklingen i aksjekursene i Norge 100 80 60 Finans Ex Finans 40 20 0 31
jan.06 mar.06 mai.06 jul.06 sep.06 nov.06 jan.07 mar.07 mai.07 jul.07 sep.07 nov.07 jan.08 mar.08 mai.08 jul.08 sep.08 nov.08 jan.09 mar.09 mai.09 jul.09 sep.09 nov.09 jan.10 mar.10 Industrisektoren stabiliserer seg i Norge Manufacturing PMI Norway 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 32
Globalt oppsving får effekt 82,5 82,5 80,0 mrd. NOK mrd. NOK 80,0 77,5 77,5 75,0 75,0 72,5 72,5 70,0 70,0 67,5 65,0 < < Tradisjonell eksport 67,5 65,0 62,5 05 06 07 08 09 62,5 33
Ordresituasjonen: verste over i industrien? 20 15 10 % kv/ kv << Ordrereserver % kv/ kv Nye ordre >> 20 15 10 5 5 0 0-5 -5-10 -10-15 -15-20 -20-25 07 08 09-25 34
Bygg og anlegg: mot lysere tider? 150 150 140 indeks indeks 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 80 << Bygg Bygg og anlegg >> 05 06 07 08 09 90 80 35
mar.02 jul.02 nov.02 mar.03 jul.03 nov.03 mar.04 jul.04 nov.04 mar.05 jul.05 nov.05 mar.06 jul.06 nov.06 mar.07 jul.07 nov.07 mar.08 jul.08 nov.08 mar.09 jul.09 Inntjeningen tilbake 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00-5,00-10,00 Driftsmargin børsnoterte selskaper (ex. Statoil) 36
Norge: Husholdningene kjører på rentene virker 157,5 157,5 12,5 12,5 155,0 indeks 155,0 % % 152,5 150,0 << Vareforbruk 152,5 150,0 10,0 10,0 147,5 147,5 7,5 7,5 145,0 142,5 140,0 145,0 142,5 140,0 5,0 2,5 << Sparerate 5,0 2,5 137,5 137,5 135,0 135,0 0,0 0,0 132,5 132,5 130,0 05 06 07 08 09 130,0-2,5 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-2,5 37
01.01.2002 01.07.2002 01.01.2003 01.07.2003 01.01.2004 01.07.2004 01.01.2005 01.07.2005 01.01.2006 01.07.2006 01.01.2007 01.07.2007 01.01.2008 01.07.2008 01.01.2009 01.07.2009 01.01.2010 Boligprisene har nådd en ny topp i 2010 opp 5% i Q1 Boligprisene i Norge 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 38
Boligboble? 140 135 2 0 0 3 Q1 =1 0 0 140 135 2,0 1,9 % % 2,0 1,9 130 125 130 125 1,8 << Gjeld/ disp. inntekt 1,8 120 120 1,7 1,7 115 115 1,6 1,6 110 105 100 95 << Boligpriser/ disp. inntekt Boligpriser/ disp.inntekt eks. renter >> 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 110 105 100 95 1,5 1,4 1,3 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1,5 1,4 1,3 39
jan.99 jul.99 jan.00 jul.00 jan.01 jul.01 jan.02 jul.02 jan.03 jul.03 jan.04 jul.04 jan.05 jul.05 jan.06 jul.06 jan.07 jul.07 jan.08 jul.08 jan.09 jul.09 jan.10 Arbeidsledigheten stabiliserer seg på rundt 3 % Arbeidsledigheten i Norge 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 40
Vi forventer vekst i privat konsum på 4.6 % i 2010 Norge BNP Privat konsum 2008 2.5% 1.1% 2009-1.5% 0.1% 2010 2.7% 4.6% 41
IV.Rentebildet 42
Sentralbankene i Europa og USA holder seg i ro til årsskiftet Markedets forventninger til styringsrentene 300 250 200 USD 150 EUR 100 GBP 50 0 spot jun.10 sep.10 des.10 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 des.11 mar.12 43
men lange renter globalt skal opp tidligere enn det Spot 3 M 6 M 12 M USD 3.79% 3.95% 4.15% 4.25% EUR 3.25% 3.50% 3.70% 3.90% NOK 4.42% 4.75% 4.90% 5.20% 44
Vi tror at styringsrenten er på 2,75 % ved utgangen av 2010 600 500 400 300 FRA Danske 200 100 0 spot jun.10 sep.10 dec.10 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 dec.11 45
10 års swap rente er på vei opp NOK - 10 year swap rate vs the policy rate 8 7 7 6,5 6 6 5 4 5,5 5 Policy rate 10 Year swap rate 3 4,5 2 4 1 3,5 46
V.Valuta 47
01.03.2006 01.05.2006 01.07.2006 01.09.2006 01.11.2006 01.01.2007 01.03.2007 01.05.2007 01.07.2007 01.09.2007 01.11.2007 01.01.2008 01.03.2008 01.05.2008 01.07.2008 01.09.2008 01.11.2008 01.01.2009 01.03.2009 01.05.2009 01.07.2009 01.09.2009 01.11.2009 01.01.2010 01.03.2010 NOK er sensitiv til globale konjunkturer 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 NOK I44 Global PMI 65 60 48
Statsbudsjettet bidrar til å styrke NOK 160 140 120 100 80 Str underskudd Handlingsregelen 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 49
17.12.1999 17.06.2000 17.12.2000 17.06.2001 17.12.2001 17.06.2002 17.12.2002 17.06.2003 17.12.2003 17.06.2004 17.12.2004 17.06.2005 17.12.2005 17.06.2006 17.12.2006 17.06.2007 17.12.2007 17.06.2008 17.12.2008 17.06.2009 17.12.2009 Norske kroner sterkere mot Euro den siste tiden NOK mot EUR 10,5 10 9,5 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 50
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