Globale konjunkturer og utviklingen i finansmarkedene. Drammen 21. april Jens Petter Olsen jeols@fokus.no

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1 Globale konjunkturer og utviklingen i finansmarkedene Drammen 21. april 2010 Jens Petter Olsen jeols@fokus.no

2 Agenda Risikobildet Global makro Norsk økonomi Rentebildet Valuta 2

3 I. Risikobildet 3

4 Kredittpremien til USA har gått opp etter Dubai/Hellas men har kommet inn fra de høyeste nivåene Premie for kredittforsikring på USA i basispunkter pr. år

5 Europa har også kommet inn fra de høyeste nivåene

6 Debt sustainability in Europe - under pressure EU Commission fcst, Autumn

7 Austr ia Belgium Finland Fr ance Ger many Gr eece Ir eland Italy Nether lands Por tugal Spain Austr ia Belgium Finland Fr ance Ger many Gr eece Ir eland Italy Nether lands Por tugal Spain The problem of self-reinforcing debt accumulation Lower nominal growth and higher yields result in a stronger snow-ball effect than before the crisis 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Nominal GDP growth IMF Forecast % 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Yield on 10 year benchmark government bond Average Current 7

8 Bankene har høye fundingkostnader relativt til industrien Sr Fin Industri

9 Kredittpremiene (CDS)mer enn halvert for selskapsobligasjoner EUR IG USA IG #N/A

10 II.Global makro 10

11 mar.99 mar.00 mar.01 mar.02 mar.03 mar.04 mar.05 mar.06 mar.07 mar.08 mar.09 Den globale veksten tar seg opp Annualisert vekst i GDP USA EUR -5 UK JAP

12 ledet av industrisektoren PMI Manufacturing USA EUR UK CHI

13 Two possible equilibrium paths 2008 was year of melt down Trend production 2009 was year of recovery based on massive fuel on the global economy Recovery (65%) 2010 is the moment of truth: will the global economy get free from gravity as the fuel tapers off? Markets will differ between pricing recovery versus long term slump a la Japan Long term slump (35%) 13

14 USA 14

15 Savings rate adjustment near complete - incomes remains the single most important driver of consumption 12 % af NDI Savings rate % af NDI Fair value model (wealth and tranfers)

16 Theme #2: Growth sustainability Payrolls recovery is key for sustainability 16

17 Theme #2: Growth sustainability Labour market indicators point to imminent job growth 17

18 Theme #2: Growth sustainability Global recovery: Massive pent up demand maybe companies have overreacted? Or were forced to? 18

19 US: Don t under-estimate the force of recovery dynamics Consensus Danske 19

20 The Fed usually waits for unemployment rate to decline 20

21 Theme #4: Exit strategy Timing of is hikes is the big issue Three approaches Speed limit The pace of recovery Output gap The level of slack and inflation Judgment Zero rate Fiscal exit Regulation 4.5 % % Fed funds Forecast Futures market

22 EUROLAND 22

23 Is German recovery faltering? - Hard data suggest so, soft data suggest the opposite 23

24 Exports also still growing strongly Demand from exports still strong Eur exports driven by Asia 24

25 ECB to hike when unemployment is on downward trend 25

26 ASIA 26

27 Asia strong engine of growth in world economy Asia 25% of global economy Exports and private demand to take over as growth drivers in 2010 Focus shifting to avoiding inflation CNY appreciation to resume in Q2 27

28 The world is no longer only dependent on US consumer Retail sales in US and China Change in retail sales, current USD 400 USD bn China USD bn USA

29 Summary beware of low visibility and high volatility 2010 is moment of truth but also year of very low visibility We believe global recovery is sustainable as labour market turns soon but there will be less tailwind from growth momentum and that will challenge the markets Still plenty of focus on debt sustainability to come with focus possibly shifting to US and UK next % y/ y Our fcst still slightly above consensus - but less so than last year D anske B ank C o nsen sus IM F OEC D D anske B ank C o nsen sus IM F OEC D USA Euroland Japan China Global Asia (ex Japan and China) CEE and. CIS Change from previous fcst USA Euroland Japan China

30 III.Norsk makro 30

31 Finanssektoren har kommet tilbake i Norge Utviklingen i aksjekursene i Norge Finans Ex Finans

32 jan.06 mar.06 mai.06 jul.06 sep.06 nov.06 jan.07 mar.07 mai.07 jul.07 sep.07 nov.07 jan.08 mar.08 mai.08 jul.08 sep.08 nov.08 jan.09 mar.09 mai.09 jul.09 sep.09 nov.09 jan.10 mar.10 Industrisektoren stabiliserer seg i Norge Manufacturing PMI Norway

33 Globalt oppsving får effekt 82,5 82,5 80,0 mrd. NOK mrd. NOK 80,0 77,5 77,5 75,0 75,0 72,5 72,5 70,0 70,0 67,5 65,0 < < Tradisjonell eksport 67,5 65,0 62, ,5 33

34 Ordresituasjonen: verste over i industrien? % kv/ kv << Ordrereserver % kv/ kv Nye ordre >>

35 Bygg og anlegg: mot lysere tider? indeks indeks << Bygg Bygg og anlegg >>

36 mar.02 jul.02 nov.02 mar.03 jul.03 nov.03 mar.04 jul.04 nov.04 mar.05 jul.05 nov.05 mar.06 jul.06 nov.06 mar.07 jul.07 nov.07 mar.08 jul.08 nov.08 mar.09 jul.09 Inntjeningen tilbake 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00-5,00-10,00 Driftsmargin børsnoterte selskaper (ex. Statoil) 36

37 Norge: Husholdningene kjører på rentene virker 157,5 157,5 12,5 12,5 155,0 indeks 155,0 % % 152,5 150,0 << Vareforbruk 152,5 150,0 10,0 10,0 147,5 147,5 7,5 7,5 145,0 142,5 140,0 145,0 142,5 140,0 5,0 2,5 << Sparerate 5,0 2,5 137,5 137,5 135,0 135,0 0,0 0,0 132,5 132,5 130, ,0-2, ,5 37

38 Boligprisene har nådd en ny topp i 2010 opp 5% i Q1 Boligprisene i Norge

39 Boligboble? Q1 = ,0 1,9 % % 2,0 1, ,8 << Gjeld/ disp. inntekt 1, ,7 1, ,6 1, << Boligpriser/ disp. inntekt Boligpriser/ disp.inntekt eks. renter >> ,5 1,4 1, ,5 1,4 1,3 39

40 jan.99 jul.99 jan.00 jul.00 jan.01 jul.01 jan.02 jul.02 jan.03 jul.03 jan.04 jul.04 jan.05 jul.05 jan.06 jul.06 jan.07 jul.07 jan.08 jul.08 jan.09 jul.09 jan.10 Arbeidsledigheten stabiliserer seg på rundt 3 % Arbeidsledigheten i Norge 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 40

41 Vi forventer vekst i privat konsum på 4.6 % i 2010 Norge BNP Privat konsum % 1.1% % 0.1% % 4.6% 41

42 IV.Rentebildet 42

43 Sentralbankene i Europa og USA holder seg i ro til årsskiftet Markedets forventninger til styringsrentene USD 150 EUR 100 GBP 50 0 spot jun.10 sep.10 des.10 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 des.11 mar.12 43

44 men lange renter globalt skal opp tidligere enn det Spot 3 M 6 M 12 M USD 3.79% 3.95% 4.15% 4.25% EUR 3.25% 3.50% 3.70% 3.90% NOK 4.42% 4.75% 4.90% 5.20% 44

45 Vi tror at styringsrenten er på 2,75 % ved utgangen av FRA Danske spot jun.10 sep.10 dec.10 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 dec.11 45

46 10 års swap rente er på vei opp NOK - 10 year swap rate vs the policy rate , ,5 5 Policy rate 10 Year swap rate 3 4, ,5 46

47 V.Valuta 47

48 NOK er sensitiv til globale konjunkturer NOK I44 Global PMI

49 Statsbudsjettet bidrar til å styrke NOK Str underskudd Handlingsregelen

50 Norske kroner sterkere mot Euro den siste tiden NOK mot EUR 10,5 10 9,5 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 50

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