Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Bankenes Sikringsfond Høstkonferansen 2016 Arctic Securities, Joakim Svingen (Analyst)

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1 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Bankenes Sikringsfond Høstkonferansen 2016 Arctic Securities, Joakim Svingen (Analyst) 1

2 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Arctic Securities Prising av egenkapitalbevis i dag Utviklingen i markedet for egenkapitalbevis Kredittmarkedet Oppsummering 2

3 Savings banks have been a key priority since the inception of Arctic in 2007 FIG is a key priority coverage industry to Arctic Arctic is enthusiastic about the savings banks sector Highly regarded and experienced research team covering the Nordic financial institutions and insurance sector Full research coverage of 6 large Nordic banks and 9 Norwegian savings banks, in addition closely monitoring the niche bank sector Full research coverage of Gjensidige Forsikring and Storebrand, as well as debt specialists B2Holding and Axactor Arctic research team have made savings banks a priority since the inception of the company in 2007 Arctic research team maintains a positive view on the Norwegian banking sector FIG sector corporate team overview Arctic Buy NOK 52 Arctic Buy NOK 65 Arctic Buy NOK 50 Hold NOK 39 Hold NOK 175 Arctic Buy NOK 170 Arctic Buy NOK 230 Arctic Buy NOK 80 FIG sector analyst team overview Arctic Buy NOK 28 Arctic Buy NOK 115 Arctic Buy SEK 94 Arctic Buy SEK 195 Arctic Sell SEK 92 Hold SEK 85 Hold DKK 196 Arctic Buy NOK 100 Fridtjof Berents Head of Corp. Finance Corporate Finance Jon Gunnar Pedersen Founding partner Corporate Finance Kjetil R. Bakken Partner Corporate Finance 8 years of investment banking & 10 years of experience from Ministry of Finance, includes banking and insurance regulation Previously headed Arctic s Research department Arctic s research team consistently ranked as no years of investment banking experience, specializing in FIG and government related transactions Returning to FIG and corporate finance after serving as Deputy Minister of Finance since years investment banking experience, 5 years FIG from Deutsche Bank and UBS prior to joining Arctic in 2007 Experience from numerous M&A transactions, capital raisings and IPO s in both Nordic and European FIG space Joakim Svingen Equities - FIG Lead Analyst Roy Tilley Equities - FIG Analyst 5 years of investment banking experience Previously worked as associate at EY ( ) and as analyst/group controller at Eika Gruppen ( ) From 2011 to 2014: Corporate finance at Norne Securities and specialized in banking and finance Holds an MSc from the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) 1 year of investment banking experience Previously worked at SpareBank 1 Gruppen as an analyst ( ) and before that as a corporate trainee ( ) Holds an MSc in Financial Economics from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) 3

4 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Arctic Securities Prising av egenkapitalbevis i dag Utviklingen i markedet for egenkapitalbevis Kredittmarkedet Oppsummering 4

5 Norske banker: Relativ utvikling hittil i år 140 Total return Jan 18-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 29-Feb 14-Mar 28-Mar 11-Apr 25-Apr 9-May 23-May 6-Jun 20-Jun 4-Jul 18-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug 12-Sep DNB SRBANK MING SVEG NONG MORG RING HELG SOAG SBVG DNB SRBANK MING SVEG NONG MORG RING HELG SOAG SBVG Source: Bloomberg 5

6 Historisk P/B over 1: Egenkapitalavkastning lavere enn historisk 2.5 x P/B (12m forward estimates) 2.0 x DNB SRBANK MING 1.5 x NONG SVEG MORG 1.0 x 0.5 x 0.0 x Forward 12m BVPS Norwegian Savings Banks DNB SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG Vs peers (0.4) (0.1) Average Average Average Current vs Average (18%) (37%) (19%) (7%) (24%) (16%) ARCe ROE Norwegian Savings Banks DNB SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG Average % 18.2% 18.6% 17.6% 13.2% 12.3% Average % 13.2% 13.4% 11.3% 13.0% 11.4% Average % 15.7% 16.0% 14.5% 13.1% 11.9% 2016e 10.2% 9.3% 9.4% 11.0% 9.8% 8.9% 2017e 10.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.4% 9.3% 8.8% Source: FactSet, Arctic Securities 6

7 Historisk P/E: Sparebankene handler til rabatt ift DNB 19.0 x 17.0 x 15.0 x 13.0 x 11.0 x 9.0 x 7.0 x 5.0 x 3.0 x Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 DNB SRBANK MING NONG SVEG MORG Sector Average P/E next 12m SRBANK MING NONG SVEG MORG Sav Bank Average DNB Diff Sav Bank vs DNB x 7.9 x 7.6 x 8.2 x 7.9 x 7.8 x 9.3 x -1.5 x 10Y average 8.4 x 8.1 x 7.8 x 9.2 x 8.8 x 8.5 x 9.2 x -0.7 x Diff vs average -1.2 x -0.2 x -0.2 x -1.0 x -0.9 x -0.7 x 0.1 x Source: FactSet, Arctic Securities 7

8 Pris/Bok i forhold til egenkapitalavkastning Regionbankene P/B 0.8 Lokalbankene P/B % % % 9.9 % 11.2 % 9.7 % 10.3 % 10.4 % 11.6 % 13.7 % 8.7 % 9.5 % 14% 12% 10% % 6.9 % 10.0 % 8.1 % % 6.2 % 7.5 % 9.8 % 7.8 % 10% 8% % 6% 4% 2% % % % 4% 2% 0.0 SRBANK MING NONG RING SVEG MORG SOAG HELG SOR SPOG 0% 0.0 SADG TOTG JAEREN SBVG AURG MELG VVL SKUE NTSG HSPG ISSG 0% Source: Arctic Securities, FactSet 8

9 Ser man på inntjeningen er regionbankene rimeligere Regionbankene P/E ~7 Lokalbankene P/E ~ SRBANK MING NONG RING SVEG MORG SOAG HELG SOR SPOG 0 SADG TOTG JAEREN SBVG AURG MELG VVL SKUE NTSG HSPG ISSG Source: Arctic Securities, FactSet 9

10 Endelig kommer normalt utbytte igjen! 9% Regionbankene Snitt på 5.8% Lokalbankene Snitt på 6.6% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6.1% 4.6% 6.8% 5.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.2% 6.3% 5.8% 6.8% 6.6% 5.0% 6.5% 6.3% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 7.9% 8.2% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4.8% 7.3% 8.1% 4.8% 4.4% 8.2% 7.9% 6.2% 5.9% 7.5% 7.3% 4.1% 3.9% 5.2% 5.2% 4.4% 5.8% 5.7% 6.6% 6.2% 3% 2.8% 3% 3.0% 2% 2% 1.8% 1% 1% 0% SRBANK MING NONG RING SVEG MORG SOAG HELG SOR SPOG 0% SADG TOTG JAEREN SBVG AURG MELG VVL SKUE NTSG HSPG ISSG Source: Arctic Securities, FactSet 10

11 Volum Likviditet er en stor utfordring, særlig for de minste Regionbankene 1.7 mill i snitt per dag 8,000 Lokalbankene TNOK 170 i snitt per dag (TNOK 85*) 1,200 7,000 7,145 1,000 1,040 6,000 5,000 4, ,000 3, , ,000 1,341 1, , SRBANK MING NONG RING SVEG MORG SOAG HELG SOR SPOG SADG TOTG JAEREN SBVG AURG MELG VVL SKUE NTSG HSPG ISSG *Eksklusive SADG som emitterte i perioden. Source: Arctic Securities, FactSet 11

12 Pengemarkedsrenter Norge, Danmark og Sverige The forward relates to a fixed maturity, while the 3m interbank rates is rolling. In each 3m period, these two rates converge (and in the meantime, the forward rate is a predictor of interbank rates 0-3 months ahead % 2 Interbank Rates Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 3m STIBOR Swedish Forward 3m NIBOR Norwegian Forward 3m CIBOR Danish Forward 3m interbank offer rate Nordic countries Change YTDChange Q3/16 Denmark Denmark Norway Norway Sweden Sweden Finland Finland Source: Bloomberg 12

13 Regulatorisk usikkerhet nærmer seg nå slutten Pillar II kravene til hver enkelt bank gjenstår Kravene til ren kjernekapital (CET1) Motsyklisk kapitalbuffer ble 1. juli i år økt fra 1.0% til 1.5%. Denne økningen kom tidligere enn vi hadde forventet og kravet til ren kjernekapital for SIFIbankene er minimum 13.5% fra 1. Juli Andre banker må ha minimum 11.5%. Pilar II krav til hver enkelt bank viktigste gjenstående usikkerhetsfaktor. Pilar II krav til DNB 1.5%, inkludert SIFI buffer er minimumskrav 15%. De største norske sparebankene forventes å ha en ren kjernekapitaldekning på 14.5% innen nyttår. Leverage ratio forventes ikke å være en bindende begrensning for norske banker. Eneste «ukjente» gjenværende faktor vil da være økt fradrag for ikke-vesentlige eierandeler i finansiell sektor (overgangsordningen). 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 13.5 % 12.0 % 1.5 % 10.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 2.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % 4.5 % July 2014 July 2015 July 2016 Minimum Requirement Conservation Buffer Systemic Buffer SIFI Buffer (max) Countercyclical Buffer (1.5%*) Sum Source: Company reports, Arctic Securities 13

14 Rapportert ren kjernekapitaldekning (inkl. 50% av resultat HIÅ) Leverage ratio 6-10% - Godt over antatt minimumsnivå 20% 18% 16% 14% 15.2 % 13.5 % 13.9 % 14.2 % 13.8 % 14.5 % 14.7 % 15.7 % 15.4 % 16.8 % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% DNB SRBANK MING NONG SVEG MORG HELG RING SOAG SBVG Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 SIFI requirement (13.5%) Sources: Company reports, Arctic Securities 14

15 Olje- og offshoreeksponering for norske banker Oil related exposure in % total lending.* Q2/ % 8.1 % 4.6 % 4.2 % 2.3 % 1.1 % DNB SRBANK MING MORG NONG SVEG Comment DNB and SRBANK has the highest direct oil related exposure with 8.1% and 8.7%, respectively. MING and MORG has roughly half of this and customers are mainly operating in the offshore segment. NONG has a low direct oil related exposure compared to the other regional banks. SVEG s low direct oil related exposure is helped by a relatively low share of corporate lending (24%). Source: Company reports *Exposure at Default used for DNB, SRBANK and MING. Loans outstanding used for NONG, SVEG and MORG 15

16 Oljeprisforventninger: Pristak på kort sikt, et balansert marked fra 2017 vil trolig lede til høyere priser Brent crude (USD/boe) Brent crude Arctic est. Forward curve Consensus Arctic est. (old) Source: Arctic Securities 16

17 Lånetap i et historisk perspektiv: Lave tap de siste 10 årene Loan losses (% of gross lending) the last 20 years Comments 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% DNB has had average loan losses the last 20 years of ~13bp, this includes reversals in the years prior to the banking crisis in the period Norwegian savings banks has in the same period had average loan losses of ~21bp 2015 was another year of low loan losses despite the rise in provisions in Q % Savings Banks DNB Source: FNO/Sparebankforeningen/Statistics Norway 17

18 Styrket fokus på lånetap i Norske banker Loan losses in % lending Arctic Estimates Loan losses in % lending History 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.60% 0.53% 0.53% 0.51% 0.50% 0.40% 0.37% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30% 0.34% 0.33% 0.25% 0.35% 0.34% 0.45% 0.40% 0.35% 0.30% 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% 0.24% 0.16% 0.14% 0.13% 0.11% 0.10% 0.23% 0.24% 0.21% 0.05% DNB SRBANK MING NONG SVEG MORG HELG RING SOAG SBVG 10Y 5Y 3Y 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% 0.14% 0.17% 0.16% 0.12% DNB SRBANK MING NONG SVEG MORG HELG RING SOAG SBVG -0.16% e 2017e Loan losses in % lending Table including history Average loan losses Loan losses (% gross lending) Loan losses (NOK million) Arctic estimates 10Y 5Y 3Y e 2017e e 2017e DNB 0.16% 0.21% 0.18% 0.15% 0.53% 0.40% 2,270 8,095 6,234 SR-Bank 0.14% 0.17% 0.15% 0.28% 0.60% 0.51% SMN 0.11% 0.11% 0.15% 0.18% 0.53% 0.50% Nord Norge 0.24% 0.32% 0.41% 0.32% 0.31% 0.37% Vest 0.13% 0.21% 0.25% 0.15% 0.31% 0.30% Møre 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.14% 0.34% Helgeland 0.23% 0.16% 0.17% 0.14% 0.25% 0.33% Ringerike 0.05% 0.08% 0.06% 0.02% 0.12% 0.16% Østfold Akershus 0.24% 0.27% 0.29% 0.09% 0.17% 0.35% BV 0.21% 0.14% 0.15% 0.09% -0.16% 0.34% Average 0.16% 0.18% 0.19% 0.15% 0.28% 0.36% Source: Company reports, Arctic Securities * Gross loans excluding loans transferred to covered bonds company. 18

19 IFRS 9 kommer 1. januar 2018 Effekten per bank er ikke kjent Nedskrivningspraksis endres Fra «incurred losses» til «expected losses» Innføring av ny regnskapsstandard innebærer større tapsavsetninger for de fleste bankene, også de norske Noen banker vil kanskje starte å øke avsetningene tidligere? Barclays/EY/PWC har alle estimert at snittbanken må øke avsetningene med over 30% Ekstremt vanskelig for investor/analytiker å sitte på utsiden uten full innsikt i låneportføljene å vurdere dette selv Bankene har jevnt over uttrykt i årsrapportene for 2015 at avsetningene «kan øke», men ingen har enda estimert effekten Vi håper bankene gir informasjon om estimert effekt senest i årsrapportene for 2016 Source: Ernst & Young 19

20 Norge er langt framme på digitalisering ~90% av befolkningen bruker nettbank Og bare 10% er hyppige brukere av bankkontoret 20

21 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Arctic Securities Prising av egenkapitalbevis i dag Utviklingen i markedet for egenkapitalbevis Kredittmarkedet Oppsummering 21

22 Egenkapitalindeksen (OSEEX) har levert bedre enn OSEBX OSEEX vs OSEBX fra 1999 til Comment De første bankene med egenkapitalbevis var Sparebanken Øst i 1988 og Sparebanken Møre i 1989 Egenkapitalbevisindeksen ble etablert i 1994, FactSet har data tilbake til 1999 De siste 17 årene har OSEEX gitt en gjennomsnittlig årlig avkastning på 11%, OSEBX har på samme periode gitt en gjennomsnittlig årlig avkastning på 8% Hittil i år er OSEEX opp 11% mot OSEBX ned 2% Norway OSE Equity Certificate (Rebased) Norway OSE Benchmark (Rebased) Source: Oslo Børs, FactSet, Artic Securities 22

23 MING SVEG NONG SOR SBHE MORG SFSB SPOG HELG SBVG SADG SBTE RING SOAG JAEREN NVSB TOTG HGSB SBHA SKUE AURG NTSG SKASB MELG ASKSB HSPG BLSG SUSB SESB GRONG ISSG HARSB KDSB BFSBG AASB HJGSB SBSB HJSB KBSB SUNSB AFJORD OFSB TYSB NESS CULTURA 45 (!) Egenkapitalbevisbanker - 6 nye banker i år 10 SpareBank1, 9 Alliansefrie og 26 Eika banker Source: Finans Norge, Company reports, Arctic Securities 23

24 De store dominerer på Oslo Børs, men sliter fortsatt med innpass hos de fleste institusjonelle investorene Hvordan vurderer investorer markedet for EK bevis? 9 banker utgjør ~90% av market cap De største (MING og NONG) - Sliter med innpass hos mange institusjonelle investorer - Gjennomgående langsiktige «long» investorer - Indeks er en utfordring for noen - Likvidit er en utfordring for mange - Vil være positivt med flere store noterte banker Øvrige regionale banker av de unoterte kan vurdere børsnotering hvis/når dette eventuelt er ønskelig - Flere banker her som kan vurdere nedsalg fra stiftelsene for å øke likviditeten i egenkapitalbevisene SOR 4% HELG 5% SOAG 6% MING 27% Lokalbankene - Blir for smått og illikvid for de fleste fond - Mange banker å velge i for interesserte retail investorer - Bør rendyrke rollen som trygge retail banker med attraktivt kontantutbytte MORG 8% SVEG 9% RING 9% NONG 16% Source: Oslo Børs, Arctic Securities 24

25 Utsteder av egenkapitalbevis Hva bør bankene tenke på? Tydelig kommunikasjon av finansielle måltall «Det forventes at styret i selskapene fastsetter og begrunner finansielle måltall som er tilpasset selskapets sektor, strategi og potensialet for verdiskaping.» - Kilde: Folketrygdfondet Source: Folketrygdfondet, Arctic Securities Viktige momenter bankene bør ha fokus på Finansielle måltall - Egenkapitalavkastning - Utdelingsgrad F.eks. minimum 50% eller 40-60% - Andre relevante nøkkeltall (internt mål for ren kjernekapital, rentemargin, kostnader, tap etc.) Rapportering Store forskjeller blant bankene - Utforming av kvartals- og årsrapporter - Presentasjon av relevante nøkkeltall - Tidsaktuelle tema i tillegg til vanlig rapportering - Oljeeksponering - Ren kjernekapital eksklusive overgangsordning IR arbeid Hvordan fremstå attraktiv - Presentere banken for lokale investorer og kunder - Knytte dette opp mot andre arrangement - Gaveutdeling - Kundekvelder om pensjon o.l. Øke investors innflytelse i banken - Øke egenkapitalbeviseiernes representasjonen i generalforsamling/forstanderskap/rep.skap 25

26 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Arctic Securities Prising av egenkapitalbevis i dag Utviklingen i markedet for egenkapitalbevis Kredittmarkedet Oppsummering 26

27 European senior bank CDSs vs broad index spreads (5yr EUR) 400 itraxx Senior Finance vs. itraxx Europe 400 Senior Financials CDS up 6bps over the last month Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug itraxx Europe (LHS) itraxx Senior Finance (RHS) Spread Difference itraxx Senior Finance vs. itraxx Europe 200 The spread between financials and industrials is now 23 bps Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Source: Bloomberg 27

28 European sub. bank CDSs vs senior bank CDSs(5yr EUR) 650 itraxx Senior Finance vs. itraxx Subordinated Finance 650 Subordinated Financials CDS is up 6bps over the last month Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug The spread between subordinated and senior is now 112 bps Itraxx Spread Subordinated Finance Difference itraxx Senior Finance (RHS) itraxx Senior Finance vs. itraxx Subordinated Finance Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Source: Bloomberg 28

29 Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Arctic Securities Prising av egenkapitalbevis i dag Utviklingen i markedet for egenkapitalbevis Kredittmarkedet Oppsummering 29

30 Oppsummering Fra et investorperspektiv Egenkapitalbevis- og kredittmarkedet fra et investorperspektiv Interesse for egenkapitalbevis og kreditt i norske sparebanker - Mange banker å velge mellom både for kreditt- og egenkapitalinvestorer - Muligheter for god diversifisering på antall/region etc. Markedet for egenkapitalbevis og prising - Positiv utvikling så langt i år og vi tror resten av året blir bra (offentliggjøring av Pilar 2 vil bidra) - Markedet har alltid rett, men bankene kan bidra til å redusere enkelte av usikkerhetsmomentene - Likviditet hovedutfordringen for de fleste fond, noen pga utelatelse i indeks Investorene er gjennomgående opptatt av 1. Rentenivå og eventuelt press på rentenetto Rentemøte senere denne uken, har vi sett bunnen? 2. Oljeeksponering og ytterligere tap denne usikkerheten vil vedvare, men markedet priser inn relativt høye tap i 2017/ Kapitaldekning her er vi snart i mål (oppfordrer bankene til å kommunisere ren kjerne eksklusive overgangsordning) 4. IFRS 9 kommer her kan bankene bidra til å redusere usikkerheten ved å offentliggjøre anslag på økning i avsetninger 5. Fintech Norge ligger langt fremme innen digitalisering og bankene posisjonerer seg så godt de kan (spesielt innen betalingsformidling) Økte investeringer innen sektoren vil legge press på bankenes produkter i årene fremover Source: Arctic Securities 30

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32 Norway Sweden USA Brazil Arctic Securities AS P.O. Box 1833 Vika NO-0123 Oslo Haakon VIIs gt 5, NO-0161 Oslo Arctic Securities AS Sweden Branch Biblioteksgatan 8 SE Stockholm Arctic Securities LLC 1 Rockefeller Plaza Suite 1706, New York NY Arctic Brasil Escritório de representação Ltda Rua Lauro Müller, Sala 4404 Torre do Rio Sul / Botafogo Rio de Janeiro Tel Tel Tel +1 (212) Tel