SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport september 2015

Transkript

1 SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport september 2015

2 Hovedtrekk september 2015 Den negative trenden fortsatt i september og SKAGEN Vekst* falt med 1,06 prosent denne måneden, dette var likevel bedre enn referanseindeksen som falt med 1,78 prosent. Siden 2012 har fondet levert tilnærmet samme avkastning som Oslo Børs. De beste bidragsytere i september var Samsung, Kia og AirAsia, mens de svakeste var Norwegian, Casino og Volvo. 3. kvartal 2015 vil sannsynligvis bli husket for den sommeren da det lokale kinesiske aksjemarkedet kollapset, energi- og råvarepriser nådde nye bunner som følge av avtalen med Iran og at den amerikanske sentralbanken (FED) besluttet å holde renten lav. Alle disse hendelsene skapte usikkerhet om den økonomiske stabiliteten og eksistensen til noen råvarer og investeringer. SKAGEN Vekst økte flere av sine posisjoner som var rammet av urolighetene i de globale markedene, spesielt de med eksponering mot de antatt mer risikable vekstøkonomiene. Blant de posisjonene vi økte i, finner vi den svenske produsenten av kulelagerenheter, SKF, og det danske bryggeriselskapet Carlsberg. Vi reduserte deler av innehavet i Norwegian Air Shuttle på kurser rundt 370 kroner, da vi syntes at mye var priset inn i det korte bildet. Vi opprettholder vårt syn på at Norwegian vil tjene over 50 kroner per aksje i 2017, og har derfor kursmål 500 kroner ved utgangen av Vi vil fortsette å holde oss til SKAGENs investeringsfilosofi å holde oss på den smale sti og fortsette å finne gode selskaper med god kontantstrøm som vokser og som er feilpriset. Vi mener det fortsatt er den beste oppskriften på langsiktig og vedvarende meravkastning. * Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2

3 A Avkastning, september 2015 A September 3Q Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst A -1,1% -4,0% -1,0% 7,4% 13,6% 7,3% 6,4% 14,2% Referanseindeks** -1,8% -0,7% 8,8% 23,3% 19,7% 14,2% 8,7% 10,4% Relativ avkastning 0,7% -3,3% -9,8% -16,0% -6,1% -6,9% -2,3% 3,9% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 3

4 Årlig avkastning siden start* (%) SKAGEN Vekst A (NOK) Referanseindeks** (NOK) Hittil i år Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 4

5 Markedsutvikling i september 2015 i NOK (%) India Sør-Korea Taiwan USA (Nasdaq) USA (S&P 500) Danmark Ungarn Italia Hong Kong Kina (Hong Kong) Mexico Sør-Afrika Finland Thailand Belgia Vekstmarkedsindeksen SKAGEN Vekst A Polen Storbritannia Sveits Frankrike Østerrike Kina (lokal) MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Norge Sverige Verdensindeksen Canada Russland Tyrkia Singapore Nederland Tyskland Japan Spania Indonesia Brasil

6 Markedsutvikling hittil i 2015 i NOK (%) Danmark Ungarn Italia Russland Japan Sveits USA (Nasdaq) Frankrike Østerrike Belgia Sør-Korea MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Finland USA (S&P 500) Nederland Kina (lokal) Sverige India Verdensindeksen Storbritannia Tyskland Hong Kong Norge Spania Taiwan Mexico SKAGEN Vekst A Sør-Afrika Polen Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Kina (Hong Kong) Canada Singapore Indonesia Tyrkia Brasil

7 Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo sept SKAGEN Vekst har 55% investert i de nordiske landene 7

8 Største bidragsytere i september 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 36 ##### Norwegian Air Shuttle AS -39 Kia Motors Corporation 29 ##### Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -26 AirAsia BHD 21 ##### Volvo AB -23 Continental AG 12 ##### Citigroup Inc -21 Tribona AB 12 ##### Koninklijke Philips NV -21 Carlsberg A/S 12 ##### ABB Ltd -19 GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd 9 ##### Credit Suisse Group AG -18 Sberbank of Russia 8 ##### Golar LNG Ltd -14 Medistim ASA 7 ##### Teliasonera AB -11 DOF ASA 6 ##### FLSmidth & Co A/S -9 Total verdiskapning i september 2015: NOK -76 millioner 8 Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning

9 Største bidragsytere i 3. kvartal 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Kia Motors Corporation 52 5E+07 Norsk Hydro ASA -68 Danske Bank A/S 44 4E+07 Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -52 Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 29 3E+07 Lundin Petroleum AB -47 H Lundbeck A/S 18 2E+07 Volvo AB -42 Medistim ASA 13 1E+07 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd -31 Frontline 2012 Ltd 12 1E+07 Carlsberg A/S -30 Solar A/S 10 1E+07 FLSmidth & Co A/S -28 OCI Co Ltd 9 9E+06 ABB Ltd -27 Sberbank of Russia 7 7E+06 Golar LNG Ltd -23 Korean Reinsurance Co 7 7E+06 Oriflame Cosmetics AG -20 Total verdiskapning i 3. kvartal 2015: NOK -312 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 9

10 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 106 # Norsk Hydro ASA -187 Danske Bank A/S 98 # Solstad Offshore ASA -101 Continental AG 72 # AirAsia BHD -87 Sberbank of Russia 32 # Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -75 Novo Nordisk A/S 32 # DOF ASA -49 Medistim ASA 31 # Toshiba Corp -47 Nokian Renkaat OYJ 28 # Samsung Electronics Co Ltd -35 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 27 # Siem Offshore Inc -18 Carlsberg A/S 24 # Electromagnetic GeoServices AS -17 Toto Ltd 24 # Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA -16 Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015: NOK -11 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 10

11 Viktigste endringer 1. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Roche Holding AG Kemira OYJ Frontline 2012 Ltd Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA Lundin Mining Corp Carlsberg A/S SBI Holdings Inc FLSmidth & Co A/S Toshiba Corp Teliasonera AB Oriflame Cosmetics SA Citigroup Inc ABB Ltd Golar LNG Ltd Danske Bank A/S Sodastream International Ltd Lundin Petroleum AB Q1 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Kongsberg Gruppen AS Getinge AB Q-Free ASA Odfjell SE Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Royal UNIBREW A/S Continental AG Novo Nordisk A/S Sparebanken Ost Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Korean Reinsurance Co Norwegian Finance Holding ASA Nokian Renkaat OYJ Avance Gas Holding Ltd Bang & Olufsen A/S Eidesvik Offshore ASA Sunrise Commmunications AG Nordic Mining ASA Zoncolan ASA 11

12 Viktigste endringer 2. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q2 Credit Suisse Group AG Elekta AB Solar A/S H Lundbeck A/S Golden Ocean Group Ltd Investment AB Kinnevik Carlsberg A/S Kia Motors Corporation Kemira OYJ Norsk Hydro ASA AirAsia BHD Continental AG Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Citigroup Inc Teliasonera AB Danske Bank A/S ABB Ltd YIT Oyj Q2 Toshiba Corp Nokian Renkaat OYJ Toto Ltd Novo Nordisk A/S Norwegian Finance Holding ASA Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Sparebanken Ost Agrinos AS Viti Invest AS Lundin Mining Corp Zoncolan ASA Royal UNIBREW A/S Koninklijke Philips NV SAP SE Korean Reinsurance Co Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Sberbank of Russia 12

13 Viktigste endringer 3. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q3 SKF AB Localiza Rent a Car SA Credit Suisse Group AG Carlsberg A/S H Lundbeck A/S SAP SE Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA Oriflame Cosmetics AG Bonheur ASA Golden Ocean Group Ltd Koninklijke Philips NV Q3 Korean Reinsurance Co OCI Co Ltd Royal UNIBREW A/S Siem Offshore Inc Norwegian Air Shuttle AS Kia Motors Corporation Danske Bank A/S Samsung Electronics Co Ltd FLSmidth & Co A/S Teliasonera AB H Lundbeck A/S Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Raiffeisen Bank International AG Elekta AB 13

14 Kjøp og salg, september 2015 Kjøp Carlsberg Med den økte usikkerheten i finansmarkedene benyttet vi anledningen til å øke vår eierandel i det danske bryggerikonsern Carlsberg. Rapporten for andre kvartal sendte skjelvinger gjennom finansmarkedene ettersom kostnadsforbedringen ikke viste seg og aksjekursen falt. Vi benyttet muligheten til å øke posten. Salg Norwegian SKAGEN Vekst reduserte posisjonen i lavprisflyselskapet på veldig attraktive nivåer. Norwegian Air har tatt et stort steg mot å bli det største selskapet innen lufttransport og lønnsomhet i Norden. Det sagt, ble posisjonen i porteføljen av en slik størrelse at det var en risiko for at operasjonelle eller naturlige «hiccups» ville kunne ha en betydelig påvirkning. 14

15 Sektor og geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Fond Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Iinformasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Asia DM Asia EM Europa DM ekskl. Norden Europa EM Latin Amerika Midtøsten og Afrika Nord Amerika Oceania Norden Kontanter Indeks Norden i SKAGEN Vekst Finland 1% Norway 20% Sweden 21% Denmark 12% 0% 20% 40% 15

16 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

17 Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2015 ABB (4.4%) ABB (4.4%) Adapting to lower demand. Still a good play on worldwide electrification trend Investment case update Neutral: Lower demand in the industry to be offset by additional cost cutting, improved mix (more consulting services for example) and better group cross selling (this is nothing new). Management showed some examples of how the new organization would be more customer focused and appeared convinced of a margin in the higher end of the 11-16% range by 2017 despite soft demand. In response to external pressure to break up the company, a strategic review will be conducted on some of the power activities during Impression was that current mgmt. wants to keep the group as intact as possible. ABB position within power generation and distribution makes it a good long term play on the structural trend of increasing electrification and renewables. Strong balance sheet and good cash flow generation supports yield of at least 5% (share buy backs/dividends) going forward. Target price SEK 250/sek (50% upside) Unpopular: Yes, big focus on negative impact from oil price and slowdown in China as well as mgmt. ability to deliver. Under analyzed: Yes, ABB has a complicated corporate structure which often overshadows the underlying value of the company. While there is ambition to reduce discount to underlying values (cost cutting, cross selling, improved mix etc), consensus remains overly focused on impact of lower oil prices (70% of analysts have sell/hold). Undervalued: Company has leading positions in several growth areas which should offset some of the weakness related to oil price. We also expect internal improvement to give higher returns higher going forward. On 14% margin and 3% cagr sales growth, stock should be able to make around USD 2/share 2018 which on 15x (10 y avg.) renders SEK 250 (50% upside). Fact ABB CMD: Lowered long term growth targets to 3-6% (was 4-7%) but helped by cost cutting and improved mix, margin targets left unchanged 11-16% and company still aims to grow eps 10-15% pa. Release of USD 2bn cash over the next 2-3 years to support R&D investments and shareholder returns. Company to reorganize from five to four divisions and launched gross cost saving program of USD 1bn. 17

18 Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2015 Tribona AB (1.5%) Tribona AB (1.5%) Bid from majority owner announced Investment case implication Positive, now even the majority see that the company potential and its assets are undervalued. Though the whole process have been ridden with unprofessionalism it was good to see the company board behaving fairly professionally and dismiss the bid as too low. The bid was at a 9.5% premium and consisted of 50/50 cash and preference shares which the Vekst team so far has declined. Unpopular: No, but very few followers. Under-analyzed: No, but low coverage (3 analysts) everyone with roughly the same conclusion as us. Undervalued: Yes, clearly the company have good potential and a fairly strong balance sheet makes it accretive to other players in the industry to improve their balance sheets. At today s valuation the share is worth a cash bid of at least 46 SEK Summary Corem AB offer for TRI SS at SEK a share with a 50/50 split between cash and preference shares in the new Corem. This is a 9.5% premium to average share price last couple of months. SKAGEN together with other institutional owners have over the last couple of months raised the issue surrounding the impartiality and openness of the board. A larger group (including SKAGEN Vekst) proposed in the beginning of September an EGM to expand the board of the company to improve governance and potential returns for all shareholders. Fairly swiftly the bid for the company was communicated from the largest owner (control roughly 1/3 of the company) that they would like to come with a bid for the whole company. 18

19 Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2015 Golar LNG (0.6%) Golar LNG (0,6%) First FLNG contract confirms attractive business case despite weak gas prices Investment case update Positive: GLNG share price has been hammered on the back of lower energy prices and weak transportation market. However, the contract show continued good demand for FLNG units as it is based entirely on the earlier announced HOA which implies a guaranteed minimum USDm 240 ebitda/year contribution regardless of oil price. In addition, there is also a profit split if oil prices go above USD 60/bl. The USDm 240 in ebitda is based on 75% utilization of the unit so a probable scenario is that this unit will generate ebitda USDm 300/year (no taxes or maintenance cash flow) for 8 years. Using Golar s MLP structure in the US, company is likely to sell this for around USDbn 2 which is roughly 50% of current EV. Unpopular: The transportation market for LNG (which is GLNG primary activity currently) is in a horrible state. In addition to this there is also fear that low energy prices will impact future returns for the FLNG business Under-researched: Well covered by 21 analyst but most of them focus on the short term transportation business and not on the future business opportunity within FLNG in which the company has a leading position Undervalued: Current value omits the FLNG opportunity and with this included we see a share price between USD 65 to USD 85. Case update details GLNG confirmed earlier HOA on FLNG unit Hilli through signing contract which will release USDm 700 financing connected to the project. Based on 75% utilization of the unit, project to generate at least USDm 240/year with upside potential should oil prices go above USD60/bl. 19

20 Key earnings releases and corporate news, September 2015 Danielli (0.8%) Danieli (0.8%) Stable orderbook despite difficult market conditions. Investment case update With a strong balance sheet and ultra conservative mgmt, Danieli is a defensive way to play a potential recovery in the steel market. Meanwhile, the company is benefitting from a structural trend of upgrading existing steel plants (more environmentally friendly etc) and is also becoming one of the leading players for alumina/aluminum plants. Indeed, despite very difficult market conditions for steel Danieli s order book remained stable Y/Y. With a massive EURm 950 net cash position it is difficult to understand company s desire to cut dividends. However, rather than to pay dividends it would make more sense to buy back the savings shares (trading on 25% discount to ordinary) which SKAGEN happens to own. Unpopular: Yes, Danieli s core business is to design and build steel plants. The steel sector is among the least liked sectors in the market. Under analyzed: Yes, Stock covered by 7 local analysts. Most of them look at steel price and over all steel demand rather than the structural trend of upgrading existing steel plants (environment, lower opex etc) and the fact that Danieli is branching to aluminum plants Undervalued: Mcap EUR Net cash EURm 950 so EV EURm 250. Company to make around EURm 250 in ebitda next 12 months (based on current backlog) so very cheap on ev/ebitda 1x. Target price EUR 28 indicates 100% upside for the savings shares Fact Danieli reported 12m EBITDA EURm 250 and continued to build its net cash position to EURm 950. Backlog grew 2% to EURm Dividend was cut substantially to EUR 0,1/share. 20

21 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered. in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people. Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and wine. 21

22 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst (continued) Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. SAP SE is a German multinational software corporation that makes enterprise software to manage business operations and customer relations. SAP is headquartered in Walldorf, Baden- Württemberg, with regional offices in 130 countries. 22

23 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.