SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport januar 2015

Transkript

1 SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport januar 2015

2 Hovedtrekk januar 2015 SKAGEN Vekst* er opp 0,1 prosent i januar, noe som var lavere enn fondet sammensatte nordiske/globale referanseindeks som er opp 4,0 prosent. De største positive bidragsyterne i januar var Norsk Hydro, Continetal og Norwegian Air Shuttle. De største negative bidragsyterne var Citigroup, Solstad og Kia Motors. SKAGEN Vekst gjorde noen endringer i porteføljen og økte beholdningen i eksisterende posisjoner, blant annet Toshiba, Lundin Petroleum og ABB. Fondet reduserte også noen beholdninger, blant annet i Kongsberg Gruppen, Teva og Samsung. SKAGEN Vekst topp 10 posisjoner har en vektet oppside på 30 prosent på nåværende verdier. Fondet har en interessant pipeline med kandidater, demonstrert av det faktum at fondets topp 35 selskaper er forventet å øke med 40 prosent de neste 2-3 årene gjennom stigende aksjekurs og utbytteutbetaling. Porteføljen handles til 8,5x EPS 2015/2016 mot referanseindeksens 13x EPS 2015/2016. For 2015 og 2016 forventer vi at selskapene i porteføljen viser en årlig gjennomsnittlig inntjeningsvekst på prosent, noe som tilsier at det er rom for positiv kursutvikling uavhengig av om verdsettelsesmultiplene øker eller ikke. * Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2

3 Relevante nyheter for SKAGEN Vekst Januar 2015 skiller seg ut med en av de mer volatile begynnelser på et nytt år Investorer som investerer i USD har sett en nedgang på 3 prosent i USA, flat utvikling i Europa og 2 prosent oppgang i Asia. For investorer i EUR er dette det sammen som en oppgang på 4 prosent i USA, 7 prosent i Europa og 10 prosent i Asia. Med en referanseindeks i NOK viser bildet 0 prosent i USA og 3-6 prosent i EU/Asia. For USD investorer Etter oppgang i 2014, har investorer begynt å bytte amerikanske aksjer over til europeiske aksjer. Med en svak EUR og en strek USD, ser europeiske selskaper med eksport til USA spesielt attraktive ut og har drevet mye av utviklingen hittil i år. Men det amerikanske markedet er ennå ikke klar for å ta del i en viktig syklisk gjeninnhenting ettersom defensive sektorer (som helse og forbruksvarer) har gjort det bedre enn mer sykliske sektorer som energi og finans. Svak utvikling for energirelaterte aksjer er drevet av fortsatt lave energipriser. Men i et bredere markedsperspektiv er fallet i energiprisene forventet å gi et løft i BNP veksten på mellom 0,5 og 2 prosent (1 prosent er lik 8mrd USD som er det samme som Tyrkias BNP). Dette løftet i økonomien, i kombinasjon med lav obligasjonsavkastning og lave rentekostnader, lover godt for aksjemarkedene. Som alltid finnes det ingen gratis lunsj (ingen avkastning uten risiko) og disse inkluderer: svakere europeisk økonomi som følge av forholdene i perifer EU, saktere vekst i Kina, motvind for amerikanske eksportselskaper fra en sterk USD påvirker amerikansk økonomi negativt og øker geopolitiske spenninger. Kilde: Bloomberg 3

4 Relevante nyheter for SKAGEN Vekst EUR investor NOK investor Kilde: Bloomberg 4

5 Avkastning, januar 2015 A Januar Hittil i kv. Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst A 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 14,1% 13,4% 7,7% 9,6% 14,8% Referanseindeks** 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 28,3% 21,1% 14,7% 11,5% 10,5% Relativ avkastning -3,9% -3,9% -3,9% -14,2% -7,7% -7,0% -1,9% 4,3% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 5

6 Årlig avkastning siden start* (%) SKAGEN Vekst A* (NOK) Benchmark Index** (NOK) Hittil i år 2015 Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 6

7 Markedsutvikling i januar 2015 i NOK (%) India Thailand Hong Kong Japan Sør-Afrika Tyskland Danmark Finland Sør-Korea Sverige Sveits Italia Vekstmarkedsindeksen Frankrike MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Belgia Taiwan Norge Tyrkia Indonesia Storbritannia Nederland Verdensindeksen Singapore Kina (lokal) USA (Nasdaq) Kina (Hong Kong) USA (S&P 500) SKAGEN Vekst A Polen Spania Østerrike Ungarn Russland Mexico Brasil Canada

8 Største bidragsytere, januar 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap Continental Norsk Hydro Norwegian Air Samsung Electronics Volvo Norwegian Bank Teva Pharmaceutical Novo Nordisk A/S Photocure Casino Guichard NOK (m) 49m 44m 43m 35m 26m 12m 11m 10M 7m 6m Selskap NOK (m) Citigroup -36m Solstad -34m Kia Motors -28m DOF -26m Wilh. Wilhelmsen -18m ABB -17m Siem Offshore -15m Lundin Petroleum -10m SAP -9m Odfjell -9m Total verdiskapning i januar 2015: NOK 15 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 8

9 Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo januar 2015 SKAGEN Vekst har 53 prosent investert i de nordiske landene Weight in Price P/E P/E P/E P/B Target portfolio 2014e 2015e 2016e trailing price Samsung Electronics 7,8 % ,0 7,6 7,1 0, Norsk Hydro 7,6 % 46 35,1 14,0 11,4 1,3 58 Continental AG 5,7 % ,4 13,7 12,0 4,4 225 Norw egian Air Shuttle 5,6 % ,0 9,8 8,0 3,9 340 Teliasonera AB 4,5 % 51 4,2 3,5 3,1 2,0 70 Citigroup 3,9 % 47 8,1 6,9 6,3 0,7 75 Philips 3,8 % 25 16,4 16,4 14,4 2,0 33 Danske Bank A/S 3,8 % ,7 10,9 10,3 1,2 205 ABB 3,5 % ,0 13,2 11,4 2,9 250 SAP 3,3 % 58 21,0 18,4 16,6 4,3 75 Weighted average 10 49,5 % 12,6 9,1 8,0 1,55 31% Weighted average 35 84,2 % 11,4 9,1 8,0 1,34 41% Reference index 15,9 14,2 12,6 2,01 9

10 Kjøp og salg, januar 2015 Kjøp Toshiba SKAGEN Vekst fortsatte å øke posisjonen i det japanske selskapet Toshiba. For øyeblikket handler alt om minne for Toshiba, ettersom denne delen av virksomheten leverer over 120 prosent i profitt. Bedring i prisen på NAND burde alene kunne stå for en 50 prosent økning i aksjekursen. I tillegg vil det fremover komme andre katalysatorer for selskapet, som økt aktivitet innen termisk kraft, hydroelektrisk kraft, overførsel/distribusjon samt drift innen kjernekraft. Salg Kongsberg Gruppen For å fortsette redusering av fondets eksponering i Norge ble beholdningen i Kongsberg Gruppen redusert i løpet av januar. Vekst innen forsvarsvirksomheten er usikker og det kan ta lengre tid enn antatt for dette å slå inn. Indirekte eksponering mot oljeprisen er en bekymring. 10

11 Viktigste endringer, januar 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Toshiba Lundin Petroleum ABB Golar LNG Frontline 2012 Carlsberg Oriflame Q1 Kongsberg Gruppen Stolt Nielsen Continental Royal Unibrew Teva Getinge Norwegian Bank Samsung Q-Free 11

12 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Asia ex Japan EMEA Japan Fond Indeks Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norden Andre Kontanter Denmark Sweden Norway Finland 6% 7% 26% 12% 1% 9% 24% 16% SKAGEN Vekst versus indeks indre sirkel er SKAGEN Vekst 12

13 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

14 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 Samsung Electronics (7.7%) 4Q14 preliminary result better than expected Samsung Electronics reported a 4Q14 preliminary operating profit of KRW 5.2tr which was ahead of analyst expectations of 4.8tr. This is up 28% on a very weak 3Q14 but down 37% YoY from an extraordinary strong 4Q13. Sales fell 12% YoY to KRW 52tr, implying an operating margin of 10%; down from 14% in 4Q13 but up from 8.6% in 3Q14. The result was apparently driven by a 6% stronger USD versus KRW and contained marketing costs. No divisional breakdown was revealed, as normal, pending final results on 29 January. However, it is likely that the QoQ earnings driver was semi division which should have increased operating margin from 22.9% in 3Q14 to 26-27% on strong volume growth and increased pricing. Management did not provide additional comments as it did in 2Q and 3Q and final dividend will also be announced in connection with final results, but management has stated that dividend should be up 30-50% on 2013 despite a c27% decline in profit which points to a DPS of KRW c20k. Investment case impact This confirms that 3Q13 was likely the earnings trough and we should expect a further QoQ growth in 1Q15. The mobile division is working on a major product overhaul which should support earnings during With announced share buyback this is likely to lead to modest profit growth for 2015; better than our flat expectations. Consensus forecast for an 8% earnings decline in 2015 has now room for upgrades. Based on preliminary 4Q14 results, we calculate EPS to KRW 28,300 and FY14 EPS to KRW 146,800 which is in line with SKT estimate of KRW 150,000. As of 3Q14, SEC had net cash per share of KRW 352k versus a pref. share price of KRW 1m with book value per share of KRW 1.1m. Our target price two year forward remains KRW 1.5m. 14

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 Continental (5.4%) Good performance in 2014 and the cash generation is soon to be an issue of how to spend it Preliminary 2014 report shows 34.5bn in revenues, up 3.5% despite 0.5bn headwind from currency moves. EBIT margin above 11% as expected cash generation was 2.0bn, up 45%, so net debt now stands at 3bn. High level 2015 guidance: 5% sales growth excl acquisition of Veyance and EBIT margin to be securely double digit. For 2015 they see global car/light vehicle sales of 89m units vs 87m in Conti has automotive technology on approximately 64m of these and for average revenue per car of 325. On top (or rather bottom) comes tyres. Investment case update When we bought into Conti in 2011 the revenue stream was 30bn and EBIT margin 8.6%. And net debt was around 7bn. By focusing on the core and with a bit of luck from lower input costs in the tyre business (butadiene prices are down 75%), the profitability has improved and the net debt is to be net cash in Dividend payout is only 25%, but could be 50-60% and they would still pile cash in Hannover, so we expect them to make smaller complementary acquisitions in the auto tech area on top of their already very firm position. Automotive business is a cyclical industry, but given the growth and low financial risk a P/E of 14x (market level) is not completely out in the woods. On 2017 earnings that implies a price potential of

16 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 TeliaSonera (4.5%) Operational performance OK report had no real triggers, however the dividend yield versus their bond yield could justify 30% upward move 2014 and 4Q 2014 performance was a bit flattish at the top and lower at bottom. Telia prefer to do all kind of CFO magic adjustments such as currency, organic ex impact from change in regulation etc, but we do the reported numbers as that is the stock we have invested in. Revenues declined 1% to 101bn SEK, EBITDAmargin was unchanged at 34.9%, capex ratio was slightly higher to 16.5%, debt service costs declined due to lower interest rates, contribution from minorities (Megafon and Turkcell) declined 24% and taxes was flat. All in the free cash flow declined 20% to 13bn SEK. Telia will pay 3.00 SEK dividend (unchanged and a 5.8% yield) or 13bn SEK i.e. 100% payout ratio. 40% of the operating earnings come from Sweden, 14% from Western Europe, 27% from Eurasia and 19% from other. The drag on profitability in Spain and Denmark was addressed via Yoigo being put up for sale and Telia/Telenor merger in Denmark (The Sonofon dolphin coming back alive). The Eurasian business has less growth than in past years due to currency, but with 53% EBITDA margin the cash generation is impressive. For a European telecom executive used to 30% EBITDA margins the 60% margin in Telia Nepal must look psychedelic. Investment case update No triggers in the 4Q 2014, however stock down 1.5% in a -0.5% market as the report is a bit dull. All the operational stuff is doing OK, but the bigger value triggers are disposals of large assets such as Megafon and Turkcell, which represent 13% of Telia s market capitalization. The dividend yield of almost 6% is another attraction in a low interest rate environment, where the Telia 10-year bonds yield only 1.3%. A 4% dividend yield would still imply a fat margin to the bond, so a 30% rerating in a quantitative easing world should not be a surprise. 16

17 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 Citigroup (4.2%) Q4 results below expectations Citigroup s Q4 report was below expectations on both lower revenues as well as higher expenses. Revenues were weaker due to investment banking fees and trading. On costs, there was no doubt a desire to kitchen sink the fourth quarter with both legal and other core cost being pulled forward from Core operating expenses were up 4% YoY. Credit quality remains very strong with both NPLs and early delinquencies down. Citi Holding continues to shrink (down USD 5bn to USD 98bn), and is now just 5% of total assets. It is also important to note that Citi Holding was profitable in Q4 and for the first time profitable for the full year. The Tier-1 ratio dropped 20bps to 10.5% driven by a pension related charge. Investment case update Citigroup already has excess cash today and we believe the market fails to see how much free cash flow Citi can generate going forward. Legal costs at USD 7.4bn in 2014 will come down substantially in 2015 and Underlying cost pool at USD 48bn should be down going forward as costs are unchanged the last 4-5 years. Citi Holding reported black figures for FY Remaining assets (USD 98bn) in Holding could give 2% positive return next coming years. We estimate Citi s book value to be at USD 85 in 2017 and EPS 2017 at USD

18 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 Philips (3.9%) As pre-warned earlier in Jan numbers soft, company is tracking behind 2016 targets Company reported EURm 743 adj. ebita (11,4% margin vs 12,9% Q413) which was in line with guidance (profit warning on 13th Jan hinted EURm 735). Healthcare was especially weak with organic growth -3% YoY. Full year adj. ebita EURbn 1,9 (9,0% margin vs 10,5% 2013). Impacted by seasonality free cash flow (FCF) was strong at EURm 559 on an ebitda of EURm This brings 2014 total FCF to dismal EURm 497 (FCF yield 2% on current market cap).outlook 2015: Guides EURm in separation costs (splitting the company in two parts as per earlier announcement) and restructure costs of EURm 250. Long-term targets of EBITA margin 11-12% in 2016: Management admits it is tracking behind its 2016 targets and will update the market on its targets later this year. While Philips is targeting an EBITA margin of 11-12%, consensus prior to the pre-announcement stood at 10.9% for Expect street to downgrade % Investment case update Philips is a restructure story with two triggers in 2015: Selling lumileds/automotive lighting and splitting company in two parts. Furthermore, Philips has a strong position within healthcare (makes some of the key products for tele medicine for example). However, margins are below peers and there should be room to expand margins considerably within healthcare. In an effort to change the stock s value trap perception, the current management targeted 11-12% group ebita margins by Timing of this appears to have been a bit optimistic. Without much help from the market, a group ebita margin above 11% should be achievable in 2018 which would translate into c. 2 EUR of free cash flow per share. Scheduled to pay EUR 0,8 in dividends the stock offers 4% yield. 18

19 Key earnings releases and corporate news, January 2015 Norwegian (5.0%) Norwegian reported strong traffic numbers Norwegian reported strong traffic numbers for December. Yield at 0.42, which was only down 2% YoY vs FY 2014 yield down 15%. Load factor strong at 81.3% and average flying distance was up 7% YoY, and will take down unit costs. Passenger growth of 2% vs Dec 13 Investment case update The yield and load will continue to improve during 2015 as the Nordics (65% of capacity) is very strong, prices are up(sas and NAS) and the load is driven by stronger demand and less capacity growth. Also, yields are improving in UK and Spain but they are still at a lower level than the Nordics. Load factor in long haul is improving and should normally lead to higher prices. Without operational hick-ups on long haul this year, we believe NAS can deliver close to NOK 40 in EPS this year SAP (3.3%) Accelerating Cloud software revenues. Faster transition should be good for profitability down the road Preliminary 2014 report shows 7% revenue growth and 2% decline in operating income, which was better than feared, so stock jumped 5% on the news. Cloud revenues grew 68% to 1.4bn run rate and CEO says accelerating towards 2.0bn as billings (revenues to be recognized in next period) was up 115% to 730m. Simple calculation (4x 730m ) shows it equals an annual run rate of closer to 2.2bn Investment case update We see SAP as a 5-10% growth company with formidable cash generation capability and cost trimming potential as the delivering platform becomes less complicated (Cloud). SAP trades at 15.5x estimated 2015 earnings and as such the lowest for 2.5 decade. Lundin Petro (2.2%) 2015 production guidance better than expected Lundin has reported 2P reserves of 188 mmboe as of ultimo 2014 (number is ex Sverdrup). We expect Lundin to book at least 50% of Johan Sverdrup reserves this year, which will imply more than 100% reserve increase. The company s 2015 production guidance of kboe/day is also slightly better than expectations. On the negative side, Lundin has reported that the highly promising Koparvik exploration well was dry. This was Lundin s sixth consecutive dry well, and we do hope this is not a trend shift for the company s highly regarded exploration team Investment case update The unitization of the Johan Sverdrup is a key catalyst for the stock in We expect announcement in mid Feb and we still expect Lundin Petroleum share at 22 per cent of Sverdrup. Sverdrup s all in costs will be at ca USD 35 boe, and we believe this unique asset will be very attractive for oil majors even with an oil price below USD 50 19

20 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people.. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. 20

21 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst continued Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October Philips NV is a global leader in medical systems (scanners), consumer appliances and lightning. Philips historic focus has been on long-lasting light bulbs, but over the years the group has divested of light bulbs and introduced many other activities in its portfolio. Philips also has a clear set of financial priorities as to how to manage the group. Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. SAP make corporate software and sell software and consultancy services in license form. Historical growth 15%, forward growth estimate is 8-10%. Cost structure: COGS 5bn, R&D 2.2bn, SG&A 4bn. SAP has a unique market position for the next big move in corporates customer oriented interactions. 21

22 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.