SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport november 2015

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1 SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport november 2015

2 Hovedtrekk november 2015 November måned ble på ingen måte like sterk som oktober. SKAGEN Vekst leverte en avkastning på 0,6 prosent, betydelig svakere enn referanseindeksens oppgang på 2,7 prosent. De beste bidragsyterne i november var Norsk Hydro, Oriflame Cosmetics og Lundin Petroleum, mens Samsung Electronics, Wilhelm Wilhelmsen og Norwegian bidro på den negative siden. Siste måneds avkastningstall ble noe preget av et lite tilbakefall på våre to koreanere, Samsung og Kia, samt svak utvikling i noen av våre norske investeringer. I disse norske papirene har vi sett økt salgspress på børs selv om de siste rapportene har vist en klar resultatforbedring. To nye investeringer ble tatt inn i fondet i løpet av november. Det svenske kommunikasjon- og teknologiselskapet LM Ericsson og den amerikanske eggprodusenten Cal-Main Foods. I tillegg økte vi beholdningen i Norwegian etter at aksjen ble kraftig solgt ned på en potensiell seteavgift samt økt terrorfrykt. Det malaysiskbaserte flyselskapet Air Asia ble solgt helt ut av porteføljen, mens beholdningen ble redusert noe i Kia Motors og Danske Bank. Så langt har 2015 vært et utfordrende år i relative termer for SKAGEN Vekst. En betydelig eksponering (18 prosent) mot norske aksjer har bidratt negativt da det norske markedet har underlevert i forhold til fondets indeks (8% versus 17%). De fleste av våre langsiktige investeringer har imidlertid utviklet seg bra og vi vil fortsette arbeidet med å øke kvaliteten på underliggende selskaper, noe som vil gi seg utslag i solid absolutt avkastning fremover. * Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2

3 A Avkastning, november 2015 A November QTD Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst A 0,6% 8,1% 6,9% 10,1% 16,8% 7,5% 7,3% 14,5% Referanseindeks* 2,7% 8,6% 18,1% 22,4% 23,3% 15,0% 10,1% 10,7% Relativ avkastning -2,0% -0,5% -11,2% -12,4% -6,5% -7,5% -2,8% 3,8% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: 1 desember **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 3

4 Årlig avkastning siden start* (%) SKAGEN Vekst A (NOK) Referanseindeks (NOK) Hittil i 2015 Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 4

5 Markedsutvikling i november i NOK (%) UNGARN BRASIL IRLAND RUSSLAND INDONESIA MALAYSIA DANMARK JAPAN ØSTERRIKE AUSTRALIA FINLAND USA MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic MEXICO TYSKLAND KOREA SVERIGE NEDERLAND NORGE SKAGEN Vekst A TAIWAN STORBRITANNIA THAILAND FRANKRIKE SVEITS KINA ITALIA NEW ZEALAND HONG KONG TYRKIA SPANIA INDIA CANADA SINGAPORE PORTUGAL TSJEKKIA SØR-AFRIKA POLEN

6 Markedsutvikling hittil i 2015 i NOK (%) UNGARN DANMARK RUSSLAND IRLAND JAPAN ITALIA NEDERLAND ØSTERRIKE USA FRANKRIKE MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic FINLAND TYSKLAND SVEITS HONG KONG KOREA STORBRITANNIA PORTUGAL SVERIGE KINA INDIA MEXICO SKAGEN Vekst A TAIWAN NORGE SPANIA NEW ZEALAND AUSTRALIA SØR-AFRIKA THAILAND TSJEKKIA SINGAPORE CANADA MALAYSIA INDONESIA POLAND TYRKIA BRASIL

7 Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo november 2015 SKAGEN Vekst har 54 prosent investert i de nordiske landene Posisjonens Pris P/E P/E P/E P/B Kurs størrelse 2015e 2016e 2017e trailing mål Samsung Electronics 7,5 % ,9 6,6 6,2 1, Continental AG 6,8 % ,7 12,5 11,0 3,7 298 Norsk Hydro 6,0 % 34 16,8 13,4 9,6 1,0 45 Citigroup 5,6 % 54 8,6 8,4 7,6 0,8 77 Carlsberg 5,3 % ,2 13,7 12,0 2,0 822 SAP 4,8 % 75 22,4 19,8 18,7 4,7 91 Teliasonera 4,2 % 43 10,7 10,7 11,0 1,8 50 Philips 4,1 % 26 21,6 18,5 12,9 2,2 30 ABB 4,1 % ,9 11,0 9,7 3,1 250 Norwegian Air Shuttle 3,9 % ,6 7,7 5,8 3,3 500 Vektet topp 10 52,4 % 12,5 10,6 9,2 1,57 35 % Vektet topp 35 91,9 % 13,0 10,8 9,3 1,35 45 % Referanseindeks 17,0 15,7 14,3 2,10 7

8 Største bidragsytere november 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Norsk Hydro ASA 46 ##### Samsung Electronics Co Ltd -50 Oriflame Cosmetics AG 31 ##### Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA -30 Lundin Petroleum AB 28 ##### Norwegian Air Shuttle AS -22 Carlsberg A/S 22 ##### Credit Suisse Group AG -21 Rec Silicon ASA 17 ##### Solstad Offshore ASA -10 Citigroup Inc 16 ##### Kia Motors Corporation -8 Continental AG 14 ##### Teliasonera AB -7 Koninklijke Philips NV 11 ##### Bonheur ASA -7 Bang & Olufsen A/S 11 ##### Yazicilar Holding AS -5 Fjord Line AS 10 ##### Ganger Rolf ASA -4 Total verdiskapning i november 2015: NOK 74 millioner 8 Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning

9 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Continental AG 145 # Norsk Hydro ASA -111 SAP SE 101 # Solstad Offshore ASA -110 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 86 # AirAsia BHD -77 Carlsberg A/S 72 # Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -61 Danske Bank A/S 65 # DOF ASA -52 Citigroup Inc 64 # Toshiba Corp -47 Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 63 # Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA -26 Lundin Petroleum AB 57 # Bonheur ASA -25 Sberbank of Russia 56 # Ganger Rolf ASA -23 Koninklijke Philips NV 45 # Credit Suisse Group AG -22 Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015: NOK 643 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 9

10 Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 (per november) Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Q2 Roche Holding AG Kemira OYJ Frontline 2012 Ltd Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA Credit Suisse Group AG Elekta AB Solar A/S H Lundbeck A/S Golden Ocean Group Ltd Q1 Q2 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Kongsberg Gruppen AS Getinge AB Q-Free ASA Odfjell SE Toshiba Corp Nokian Renkaat OYJ Toto Ltd Novo Nordisk A/S Norwegian Finance Holding ASA Stolt-Nielsen Ltd Sparebanken Ost Q3 Q4 SKF AB Localiza Rent a Car SA SAP SE Credit Suisse Group AG Ericsson Cal-Maine Foods Q3 Q4 Korean Reinsurance Co OCI Co Ltd Royal UNIBREW A/S Siem Offshore Inc Raiffeisen Bank International AG Danske Bank A/S AirAsia Bhd 10

11 Kjøp og salg, november 2015 Kjøp Ericsson Det svenske mobilteknologi-, nettverk- og service selskapet ble tatt inn i porteføljen etter at aksjen hadde falt 30 prosent siden april, mye grunnet svake kvartalsrapporter. Et sterk vekst i video-streaming på mobiltelefoner (eksempelvis Facebook og Snapchat), burde gi grobunn for vekst i nettverksinvesteringer (4G+) og økt service. Ericsson handles til 14 ganger neste års inntjening, og vi forventer en vekst på oppimot 15 prosent de kommende årene. I sum anser vi selskapet som attraktivt priset, da særlig sett opp mot andre store nordiske selskaper. Salg AirAsia Det Malaysia-baserte lavkost flyselskapet ble solgt ut i november måned. Selskapet har vist en imponerende vekst siste 10 år, men har i den senere tid møtt på problemer i sine datterselskaper ( Filippinene og Indonesia) Etter at aksjen hadde hentet inn forsommerens kursfall, valgte vi å selge oss helt ut av selskapet. Vi har fortsatt tro på at AirAsia er et veldrevet flyselskap med gode vekstmuligheter, men usikkerheten knyttet til datterselskapene gjør at vi kan anvende kapitalen bedre i andre investeringer. 11

12 Sektor og geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Fond Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Asia DM Asia EM Europa DM, ekskl. Norden Europa EM Latin Amerika Midt Østen og Afrika Nord Amerika Oceania Norden Kontanter Indeks Norden i SKAGEN Vekst Sverige 24 Norge 19 Danmark Finland

13 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk

14 Key earnings releases and corporate news, November 2015 Continental (6.8%) Mixed results for Q3, Tire sales strong Powertrain weak, guidance forward raised. Investment case update Q3 was not as strong as the previous two quarters for the German based tire and car supplier, but this is no change in trend. Q3 was influenced negatively by four factors; 1)weak China (down 13% QoQ), but market is back strongly so far in Oct-Nov (with some help from the government). 2) Weaker sale of winter tires due to warm weather, this has changed in October, and they expect to see FY2015 sales of roughly 21 million winter tires, on par with last year. 3) Negative mix, mainly due to Powertrain. 4) Very weak mining and oil exploration business. 17 mines closed worldwide in September and YTD there have been 71 closed mines. This has hit ContiTech in the conveyor belt business (ca 25% of ContiTech s business) and they do not believe this business will pick up in the near future. Conti increased FY2015 guidance to above EUR 39bn in revenues (Automotive 23.5 Rubber 15.5) and hiked margin outlook from ca 11% to above 11% (Auto above 8.5% and Rubber above 16%) Free cash flow expected to be above EUR 2bn. ROE has been steady around mid-20ies last 4 years, and we do not see any reason why this number should come down going forward. Strong cash flow generation (above 6% FCF yield), we will keep the stock until we see the share price above EUR 250. Unpopular: Not exactly, but 56% sell/hold is not a crowded fan club Under analyzed: no, wide coverage (32 analysts) Undervalued: yes, but not as much as it used to be. Even with no growth in rubber division and AutoTech continue to grow 6% this is a EUR stock, and in addition ADAS (advanced driver assistant system) has a rapid growth (will double revenue from 2015 to Fact Conti reported 9M sales up 14% to EUR 29bn (org sales +3%) and EBIT up by 16% to EUR 3.4bn (EBIT margin at 12%). Free cash flow at EUR 316 mill, and FCF before acquisitions of EUR 1.5bn. Net debt slightly up to EUR 4.3bn, equity ratio at 38%. Trailing ROCE up by 230 bps to 21.6%. 14

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, November 2015 Carlsberg (5.3%) Setting sail for a more profitable future self-help case getting clearer. Stock up 7% on the news Investment case update Carlsberg, the Danish brewer, investment case core is; a stable earner with sub-par profitability to peers and on route to be improved. The 3Q15 report confirms the path. Organic sales grew 3% and operating profit grew 9% to a 18.9% margin. Carlsberg s annual OP-margin is 14%, while the three large peers (InBev, SAB Miller and Heineken) do 32%, 20% and 17% respectively. Geographical mix will not enable Carlsberg to reach more than 17-18%, but the investment thesis only require 15.5% to reach the 856 DKK target price. Sail 2022 strategy plan will be communicated in March 2016, so the next few months the stock will likely move higher as Nordic investors a heavy underweight in a stock with market level valuation and 3 times the growth rate. Unpopular: yes - it s shorted, few domestic institutions hold it and it s perceived as Danish Ministry of Beer. Sell-siders are 84% sell/hold. Perfect for SKAGEN. Under analyzed: semi 35 analysts and it s a beer company most people know. However, focus is on the poor historical track record and they don t buy into the better profitability coming. Undervalued: yes EPS is likely to grow 15-20% next few years and stock trades at 16x earnings in line with overall market, which has 7% growth. It s a well-known business model, so execution risk on the way forward should be limited. Carlsberg has net debt of 32bn DKK (most of it from 2007 acquisition of Baltika in Russia), they pay 1.4bn DKK in dividend, so it will take them 4-5 years to become debt free (which would again lift net cash earnings by 1bn DKK per year), so good upside leverage. Facts 3Q15 report main elements; Sales 18bn DKK +1%, OP 3.5bn DKK +2%.West Europe sales up 5%, however lower profitability. East Europe/Russia sales down 23%, but much better profitability as 3Q14 was impacted by write-downs. Asia 18% sales growth and better profitability due to scale effects. Restructuring /impairment charge of 8.5bn DKK. 97% non-cash. Will improve profitability by bn DKK by 2017 (2/3 will be visible in 2016) to fund investment in future profitability. More details in March 2022 with Sail 2022 strategy plan including working capital improvements. Will reduce debt and increase shareholder remuneration. M&A off the agenda VERY good news and Carlsberg s M&A history is a textbook of how not to do it. 15

16 Key earnings releases and corporate news, October 2015 Oriflame (1,6%) Solid Q3 numbers and strong start into Q4, stock rallied 15% on the report Investment case update Challenges remain in CIS and Europe, but the development is improving a bit. However, Oriflame reported once again double digit growth in both LatAm and Turkey, Africa and Asia. These markets now accounts for close to half of the total sales with an increased contribution to the overall earnings. The YTD sales development is 2% in local currency and so far Q4 has shown sales of 9% in local currency. Oriflame aims to achieve sales growth of 10% (local currency) per annum with an operating margin of 15% (double of today s margin). If we assume 10% margin and 3-4% sales growth going forward, ORI SS should be valued above SEK 200. Unpopular: yes, 82% sell/hold. Huge short interest in the stock Under analyzed: no, 11 analysts cover the company. Undervalued: yes, as most focus continue to be on CIS/Russia while the strong growing business (50% of revenues) is overlooked. Facts Oriflame reported sales in local currencies increase of 4% and EUR sales decrease of 4% to EUR 263 mill. Sales development was impacted by 9% increase in productivity while the number of consultants decreased by 5% to 2.8 mill. Unit sales were down by 10%, while the price/mix effect was positive at 14%. The mix effect is driven by a combination of geography and product mix, primarily driven by Wellness and Skin Care and China still growing triple digits. 16

17 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered. in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people. SAP SE is a German multinational software corporation that makes enterprise software to manage business operations and customer relations. SAP is headquartered in Walldorf, Baden- Württemberg, with regional offices in 130 countries. 17

18 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst (continued) Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and wine. Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. Koninklijke Philips N.V. is a Dutch diversified technology company headquartered in Amsterdam with primary divisions focused in the areas of electronics, healthcare and lighting. In 2016 it is expected to list their lighting division in a separate company. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2015 expect to fly over 26m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. 18

19 Ericsson LM (ERICB SS) 83 SEK Mean reversion Special situation Long term value builder 20% 0% 80% History and description of business Founded in 1876 and headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, Ericsson is a global leader in mobile communication network products, solutions and services. 2015e revenues 245bn SEK and OP 20bn SEK Networks (52% of revenues and 50% of operating income) develop, produce and market mobile communication infrastructure for voice and data. Radio panels, base-stations, transmission/backbone solutions via microwave, fiber etc. Services (43% of revenues and 48%) provide outsourcing of mobile network operation, management and maintenance. Network migration from 3G to 4G/LTE and next step into 5G mobile networks Support solutions ( 5% of revenues and 2% of operating income) provide network services that enable network operators to integrate content services on their platform (media, payment, hosted services) Geo-split - Americas 34%, Asia 25% (China 13%), Europe 24%, RoW 17% Number of employees: employees 2m SEK revenue/pax, down from 2.8m in period. Well known investment case for years new VoIP services triggered renewed interest Business model and investment thesis Swedish engineering with global reach. Mobile communication net works are seeing ever higher data capacity needs driven by video streaming on smartphones, tablets etc. All mobile com payment platforms moving towards data only Voice over IP. Company more streamlined towards networks and service /support and less on production and consumer hardware. Partnership with Cisco Thesis: Ericsson didn t get full benefit on 3G, coming back in 4G, but with Huawei rocking the boat and 5G position is good. ESG: no issues identified for sub-suppliers Ericsson is ISO compliant Triggers: 1. Shorter term triggers are improved profitability despite soft patch revenues. Apple patent case with 20bn SEK compensation to Ericsson plus 6bn SEK in annual royalty fee potential. 2. Share count reduction /higher dividends 3. Nokia/Alcatel merger will preoccupy that management team with integration issues. Huawei price dumping being addressed by EU and new better ROIC policies in China. More leverage of patent pool. 4. 5G mobile network build-out and ever more small-cell infrastructure inside buildings 5. Cisco partnership to materialize further (exp 1bn USD increased sales 2018) Risks 1. Insufficient efficiency gains and continued low price market approach from Huawei and others of the like 2. M&A; history show a patchy record. Rumored Samsung's networks are for sale. 3. Technological obsolete patent pool (very low likeliness) Target price With revenues growth of 5% and improved profitability (peers do 13-14% OP-margin we can see operating earnings going from 20bn SEK to 30bn SEK in At EPS level it s from 3.60 SEK to 6.25 SEK and with 16x multiple (market level) it s 20% upside. On top comes 4% dividend per year for 33% upside over 2-3 years. Key figures: Market cap SEK 273bn NOK 273bn Net debt (cash) SEK (25)Bn No. of shares 3.3bn A and B shares 3 251m P/E x P/E x P/BV trailing 1.97x ROE % Yield 4.3% Altman Z score 3.53x Daily turnover SEK 850m No of analysts 34 with sell/hold 43% Owners A-shares: Investor 44%, Industrivärden 33%, Handdelsbanken pension 10% B-shs: Swedbank 6%, Norge Bank 4% 19

20 3U for Ericsson Unpopular Well known business however with a underperformance over the last years. Sell-side is mixed and after a disappointing 3Q15 report (lower sales in China a.o.). The stock is down 30% since April 2015 high in line with other Swedish global exporters. Due to long term performance many Swedish investors (ex Investor and Industrivärden) have lost patience Undervalued Underanalyzed No as a global leader in mobile communication infrastructure Ericsson and it s engineers are good ambassadors to tell about their technological excellences. Investor trust in management delivering on better profitability is not seen in the stockprice implying its somewhat underanalyzed Given it s historical earnings profile and forward path it s about fair value at SEK. The earnings profile for 2018 could well be above 7.00 per share driven by profitability improvements, new products, harvesting the patent pool and less price dumping by Chinese competitors. Compared with peers Ericsson has more potential for internal improvements, so even with difficult market conditions earnings can improve. * In USD 20

21 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.