Et utfordrende marked Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) @ThinaSaltvedt
Oljeprisen lavere lenger Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2014 108 110 103 77 100 2015E 55 64 50 47 54 2016E 50 53 56 59 55 2017E 60 63 67 70 65 2
Et tilbakeblikk From bad to worse Before OPEC meeting Nov 2014 First Iran deadline 2015 At the bottom Jan 2015 September 2015 Source: Bloomberg 3
Drukner i Olje
USAs skiferproduksjon eksploderte i 2008 5
Skiferproduksjonen er mer resistent mot lavere priser enn antatt 6 000 kb/d Major US shale plays Total Oil production 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 okt08 jul09 apr10 jan11 okt11 jul12 apr13 jan14 okt14 jul15 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara 6 Source: EIA
Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep OPEC Oversvømmer markedet med billig olje 32 31,5 31 30,5 30 29,5 29 28,5 28 27,5 OPEC Supply Call-on-OPEC 2015 Quota OPEC Quota Call- on- OPEC 7 Source: IEA and Nordea Markets
jan.11 mai.11 sep.11 jan.12 mai.12 sep.12 jan.13 mai.13 sep.13 jan.14 mai.14 sep.14 jan.15 mai.15 sep.15 Thousand barrels per day Iran vil bli et viktig bidrag i 2016 3700 US/EU sanctions on oil industry 3500 3300 3100 2900 US sanctions on Iranian banks Sanctions on oil insurance and transport Framework Accord agreed Sanction removed + 700k b/d 2700 2500 Joint Plan of Action Deadline 8
USD per barrel Tilbudsoverskuddet vil vare godt inn i 2017 98,0 96,0 94,0 92,0 90,0 88,0 86,0 84,0 82,0 Supply Demand 9
E&P Expenditure in MUSD Hva skjer hvis Midtøsten fortsetter å investere mens vi kutter? 800000 700000 Europe America N Middle East Europe 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 North America Middle East Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets 10
Fra kartell til markedsandel en ny prisæra Cartel price USD 110/barrel 11
Hvor avhengige er vi av olje?
Et kraftig fall i oljeprisen er bra for verdensøkonomien 13
Største nedside risiko - en gjelds-/eiendomsboble som sprekker i Kina 14
Million barrels per day Transport er den siste bastionen - men overgangen til andre energiformer kan gå fort! 120 100 80 Power generation 6.5% Buildings 9% Industry 5.5% Other 13% 60 Petrochemicals 12% 40 20 Transport 54% 0 1990 2013 2020 2025 2030 15 Source: IEA
Klima og forurensingsproblemer krever endring Kina møter store helseproblemer og fallende levealder 16
Risiko for «Stranded assets» Klima på agendaen i 2015! 17 Source: DNV GL and Nordea Markets
Ekstraordinære endringer underveis i energisektoren : Here comes the sun Saudi Arabia, verdens største råoljeeksportør, kan fase ut fossilenergi innen midten av dette århundre sier Oljeminister, Ali al-naimi 18
Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss Norge ledende på el-bil Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede nede på 2020 nivå Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015 19
Ny batteriteknologi kan endre energimarkedene radikalt Teslas Power Wall får konkurranse fra tyske Daimler og danske Lithium Balance 20
Utfordringer i kø fremover
Vi er neppe ferdig med nedturen 22 15.09.2015
Hvilke felt er mest utsatt med dagens oljepris på USD 50/fatet? Kristin Åsgård Johan Castberg Goliat Wisting Gotha/Alta Njord Ormen Lange Snorre Late Life Liten risiko under USD 50/f Edvard Grieg Ekofisk King Lear Johan Sverdrup Middels risiko litt over USD 50/f Høy risiko over USD +50/f 23
Johan Sverdrup Johan Castberg Snorre Alta/Gohta Wisting King Lear Frigg Gamma/Delta Ekofisk West Gjoa Ormen Lange Linnorm Ekofisk West Grane Kristin Visund Hod Valhall Njord Skarv Edvard Grieg Tor Heidrun Kvitebjorn Aasgard EP Expenditure in MUSD Investeringer Johan Sverdrup er uten sammenligning det viktigste 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets 24
Antall ansatte i offshore, leverandør, operatør indirekte sysselsatte 25 Kilde: IRIS 2014
Østfold: Flest i leverandør industrien og indirekte sysselsatte Kilde: IRIS 2014 26
Oljeprisfallet rammer fastlandet.. 27 15.09.2015
Oljenedturen har så langt preget Vestlandet 28
9.75 9.55 9.35 9.15 8.95 8.75 8.55 8.35 8.15 7.95 7.75 09Sep13 28Jun14 16Apr15 02Feb16 20Nov16 08Sep17 NOK expected to regain some strength against EUR and EURNOK Forward Nordea Consensus but weaken further against USD, when FED starts to hike 29
against SEK within the next six months 1.035 1.015 0.995 0.975 0.955 0.935 0.915 0.895 0.875 16Sep13 05Jul14 23Apr15 09Feb16 27Nov16 15Sep17 SEKNOK Forward Nordea Consensus 30
Inflasjonen vil forbli lav 31 15.09.2015
og Norges Bank kutter igjen Norges Banks styringsrente 32 15.09.2015
Boligprisveksten - vil dra med seg forbruk og boligbygging Bankene kutter rentene 33
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Economic Research Nordea Markets Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com
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