Hvor går oljeprisen, og hva betyr det for investeringsnivået på norsk sokkel? Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Macro/Oil

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1 Hvor går oljeprisen, og hva betyr det for investeringsnivået på norsk sokkel? Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Macro/Oil September

2 Nordea: Brent oljepris prognoser i USD per fat 04/09/2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year E 118 USD 109 per barrel E E USD per barrel Back on track Baseline 80 Sinking feeling Forecast Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin 2

3 Den globale oljeetterspørselsveksten avhenger av den økonomiske aktiviteten 8.0% Real GDP vs Oil demand growth, change y/y World 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.7% 2.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 3.7% 2.2% 4.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.4% 3.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 5.3% 3.1% 3.9% 0.7% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% -0.7% -0.6% -1.1% % -2.0% -4.0% -3.6% -1.4% -1.4% -1.1% -1.9% -2.1% -2.3% -2.4% -2.9% -2.7% -3.0% -3.3% -3.5% -3.8% -6.0% Oil demand Real GDP growth Oil intensity Trend oil intensity Global oil demand growth below trend until 2014 *Oil intensity: The amount of oil consumed per unit of real GDP Source: IEA, Nordea Markets 3

4 Demand for middle distillates to continue with strongest growth 160 World Oil demand Indexed, 100 = 1990 Index Gasoil/diesel Oil ex-gasoil/diesel Source: PIRA, Nordea Markets 4

5 Transportsektoren utgjør mer enn halvparten av verdens oljeetterspørsel World transportation oil demand by mode 52% 60% Source: IEA 5

6 Verdens største netto oljeeksportører - bare 2 politisk stabile 6 5 OPECs buffer kapasitet på et ukomfortabelt lavt nivå Implied OPEC effective spare capacity and Brent price forecast Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Canada Qatar Algeria Venezuela Norway Angola Iraq Nigeria Kuwait UAE Iran Russia Saudi Arabia mb/d Q2002 2Q2004 4Q2005 2Q2007 4Q2008 2Q2010 4Q2011 Effective spare Effective spare (f'cast) Brent 1.pos, rhs Brent (f'cast), rhs USD/bbl Million barrels per day 6

7 Oljeeksportørenes budsjetts breakeven pris vil i økende grad påvirke oljeprisutviklingen Source: IEA 7

8 OPEC crude capacity still flat after 30 years PIRA forecast OPEC capacity to grow 1.6mb/d by Downside risk due to increased Middle East unrest creating hostile investment environment 8

9 Global E&P spending by onshore/offshore Source: Rystad Energi 9

10 Skiferoljerevolusjonen veier opp for tilbudssideforstyrrelser utenfor OPEC 17.5 USD per mmbtu USD per barrel Natural Gas Henry Hub, lhs WTI light sweet crude, rhs Source: Reuters EcoWin 10 Source: PIRA and Reuters Ecowin

11 Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potensial 1, ,404 1,225 1, tcm Source: EIA 11

12 28 confirmed LNG newbuilds spreading outside Norway Confirmed orderbook Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2012 General Cargo Nordnorsk Shipping DNV 2012 PSV Eidesvik Shipping DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 High speed RoPax Buquebus DNV 2012 PSV Island Offshore DNV 2012 PSV REM DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Harbor vessel Incheon Port Authority 2013 General Cargo Eidsvaag DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Norled 2013 Car/passenger ferry Norled 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 RoPax Viking Line LR 2013 Tug Buksér & Berging DNV 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2013 Patrol vessel Finish Border Guard GL 2013 Car/passenger ferry Society of Quebec ferries Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2014 Car/passenger ferry Society of Quebec ferries 2014 Tug Buksér & Berging DNV 2014 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2014 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2014 PSV Remøy Shipping Updated Source: DNV 12

13 Verden i ulage Norge i toppform: En oljesmurt økonomi

14 Veksten i verden blir grei

15 Mind the gap! Budsjettunderskudd (% av BNP) Norge Spania USA Slovakia Kypros Slovenia Luxembourg Nederland Malta Finland UK Irland Frankrike Portugal Euro snitt Italia Østerrike Belgia Tyskland Hellas Statsgjeld (% av BNP)

16 Eksport av fisk viktigere % Andel av tradisjonell vareeksport i % Industriprodukter (v.a.) Produkter fra jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske % Bergverksprodukter Elektrisk kraft Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

17 Offshore sektoren utgjør en stor del av BNP NOK 372 mrd eller 30 % av statens inntekter (2011) er nettoinntekter fra petroleumssektoren Oljefondet var på NOK 3650 mrd (slutten av August 2012) 17

18 Statens Pensjonsfond Utland det neste største SWF i verden gir fleksibilitet til den norske økonomien USD Billion 15 største Sovereign Wealth Funds Billion 2012 NOK Kjerneregelen 4% og ikke-olje korrigert underskudd 0 18 Sources: Norges Bank and SWF Institute

19 Tidsline for de største oljefunnene på den NKS Kumulativ vekst i reservene Statfjord (3568 mboe), Sleipner Oseberg (2373 mboe), Snorre (1517 mboe) Troll (1573 mboe) Snøhvit Heidrun (1063 mboe) Draugen (900 mboe) Grane (759 mboe) Norne (587 mboe) Ormen Lange Goliat (175 mboe) Johan Sverdup (1761 mboe), Skrugard (241 mboe) Ekofisk (3363 mboe) Gullfaks (2298 mboe) Tiden hvor store funn ble gjort Tiden hvor små funn ble gjort 19 Source: NPD

20 2011/2012 årene da norsk oljeindustri kunne juble 20

21 Oljeinvesteringene har økt kraftig som følge av høye oljepriser, nye funn og tilgang til nye områder Oljeinvesteringer selskapenes estimater Potential Sources: NPD and SSB 21

22 Oljeindustriens verdikjede Figure 35: Oil industry value chain Seismic Surveys Exploration & Development Drilling Pre- Engineering/ Concept Studies Fabrication & Installation Production & Maintenance Decommissioning Source: Nordea Markets 22

23 E&P expenditures for den norske kontinentalsokkel - Onshore og Offshore. Prognoser ,000 Million USD 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Seismic and G&G Transportation and Logistics Subsea Equipment and Installation Topside and Processing Equipment Rigs and Drilling Contractors Drilling Tools and Commodities Well Service Procurement, Construction and Installation Engineering Operational and Professional Services Maintenance Services Source: Rystad Energy 23

24 Økende produksjonskostnader vil bli en utfordring på norsk sokkel fremover Samlede letekostnader på norsk Kontinentalsokkel fordelt på kostnadskategori Source: NPD 24

25 Antall sysselsatte fordelt på sektor 40% 35% Møre og Romsdal Kristiansund Hele landet 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske Olje, energi og industri Bygge og anleggsvirksomhet Varehandel og transport Overnattings og serveringsvirksomhet Privat og forretningsmessig tjenesteyting Offentlig sektor 25

26 Antall sysselsatte i oljesektoren og antall arbeidsledige i Møre og Romsdal og landet samlet Antall sysselsatte Antall arbeidsledige 5.0 1,200 1, Møre og Romsdal Kristiansund Møre og Romsdal Hele landet Utvinning av råolje og naturgass Tjenester til bergverk og utvinning Utvinning og tjenester til olje og gass Kilde: SSB 26

27 Befolkningsvekst i Møre og Romsdal og hele landet samlet 1.5% Hele landet Møre og Romsdal 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% Source: SSB 27

28 Contact details: Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Senior Macro/Oil Analyst Commodities Research Nordea Markets Phone: Mobile:

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