Makrobildet Olje Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Sjefanalytiker Makro/Olje (Ph. D.) @ThinaSaltvedt
Oljeprisen på vei ned mot bunnen i August Prisen har brutt et 3M prisbånd på USD 46-54/fatet 2 Source: Bloomberg
Oljeprisen lavere lenger Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2014 108 110 103 77 100 2015E 55 64 50 47 54 2016E 50 53 56 59 55 2017E 60 63 67 70 65 3
2 trender som preger oljetilbudet Skiferrevolusjonen OPEC: Fra et dominerende kartell til markesandel
USAs skiferproduksjon eksploderte i 2008 5
Dyrere norsk olje skvises ut av billig olje fra Midtøsten tvinger frem en omstilling og kostnadskutt 6
Stater rundt IS-styrt territorium (i rødt) utgjør 24,3% av verdens olje produksjon eller rundt 22 mf/d. Land med store produksjonsproblemer etter den arabiske våren (i lilla) Marocco Algeria 1.6% Tunisia 0.1% Libya 0.6% Turkey Syria Lebanon Israel Jordan Egypt 0.8% Sudan 0.1% South Sudan 0.2% Iraq 3.8% Saudi Arabia 12.9% Iran 4% Kuwait 3.6% Yemen 0.2% Qatar 2.0% UAE 4.0% Oman 1.1% 7 Source: British Petroleum
Er vi helt avhengig av olje?
Million barrels per day Transport er oljemarkedets siste skanse - men skifte til annen energi går fort! 120 100 80 Kraftsektoren 6.5% Bygninger 9% Industri 5.5% Annet 13% 60 Petrokjemi 12% 40 20 Transport 54% 0 1990 2013 2020 2025 2030 9 Kilde: IEA
Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss Norge ledende på el-bil Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede nede på 2020 nivå Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015 10
Ekstraordinære endringer er på gang i energisektoren Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the «Here date of this comes document and the are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, sun and it should «not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Saudi Arabia, verdens største oljeeksportør, kan komem til å fase ut fossil energi innen midten av dette århundre, sier Oljeministeren, Ali al-naimi Kiitos! Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. 11
Endringer i preferanser og omdømmerisiko flytter pengestrømmer Group of Big Oil companies pledge support on climate change initiative Shell pulls out of drilling in Alaska 'for the foreseeable future' after not finding enough oil Two changes have had a profound impact on the economics of the oil market: Shale revolution Increasing concerns about carbon emissions and climate change BP London 13. okt 2015 12
Oljenedturen smitter Kilde: Financial Times, Ingram Pinn
Oljeinvesteringene ventet å falle med 20% i 2015
Kristin (2019) Johan Sverdrup (2020) Aasgard (2019) Ekofisk (2025) Ekofisk West (2026) Njord (2020) Hod 2025) Valhall (2025) Wisting 2025) Gjoa (2021) Ormen Lange (2023) Johan Castberg (2023) Alta/Gohta (2024) Grane 2022) Edvard Grieg (2024) Snorre (2023) Frigg Gamma/Delta Linnorm (2025) Skarv (2021) Kvitebjorn (2022) Tor (2024) Visund (2024) Heidrun (2020) King Lear (2023) USD per barrel Breakeven oljepris nødvendig for de 24 største planlagte prosjektene på norsk sokkel 120 100 80 60 40 Olje pris 20 Project startup year 0 Kilde: Rystad og Nordea Markets 15
Johan Sverdrup Johan Castberg Snorre Alta/Gohta Wisting King Lear Frigg Gamma/Delta Ekofisk West Gjoa Ormen Lange Linnorm Ekofisk West Grane Kristin Visund Hod Valhall Njord Skarv Edvard Grieg Tor Heidrun Kvitebjorn Aasgard EP Expenditure in MUSD Investeringer på Johan Sverdrup er viktig for industrien 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Kilde: Rystad Energy og Nordea Markets 16
Antall ansatte i offshore, leverandør, operatør indirekte sysselsatte Teknologiske endringer vil redusere behovet for arbeidskraft i oljebransjen i fremtiden Kilde: IRIS 2014 17
Antall ansatte i offshore, leverandør, operatør indirekte sysselsatte i Rogaland Kilde: IRIS/Menon 18
Det kommer mye stimulans fra en svakere krone 19 23.11.2015
I 2013 20 23.11.2015
2015: 3 av 4 kontrakter til Norge 21 23.11.2015
USDm USDm Operasjonelle kostnader har økt kraftig siden århundreskiftet spesielt de eksterne kostnadene 25 000 22 500 20 000 17 500 15 000 12 500 10 000 7 500 5 000 2 500 0 Vedlikehold, høyre akse Interne Eksterne 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Interne produksjonskostnader Vedlikeholdskostnader (RHS) 22 Eksterne produksjonskostnader Source: Rystad Energi
Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. 23
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Economic Research Nordea Markets Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com