European supply and demand for Cod and Haddock Ingrid Kristine Pettersen, Codfish analyst, Norwegian Seafood Council 13/02/2017
Capia Uavhengig informasjonsog analyseselskap Innhenter og tilrettelegger av data (via Open Source) Gjør analyser for å skape: økt innsikt bedre lønnsomhet 13/02/2017
Organisasjon og finansiering Etablert i 1991 Eid av Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet Fiskeriministeren fungerer som generalforsamling Finansiert av markedsavgift: 0,3-0,75 % av eksportverdien Budsjett 2015: NOK 487 millioner Over 70 ansatte (mer enn 20 er lokalisert i utlandet) 13.02.2017 Presentasjonstittel 3
Sammen vinner vi verden for norsk sjømat
Vårt oppdrag er å vinne verden for norsk sjømat i lag med den norske sjømatnæringen
Avdelinger Markedsføring Markedsinnsikt Kommunikasjon og beredskap 13.02.2017 Presentasjonstittel 6
Norsk sjømat 91,6 MRD NOK eksportverdi 2016 2,45 millioner tonn Sjømat er en av Norges viktigste eksportvarer Norge er nest største eksportør av sjømat i verden Norge eksporterte i 2016 sjømat til over 140 land
Norsk sjømat 36 millioner måltider norsk sjømat hver eneste dag!
Verdi I milliarder NOK Norsk sjømateksport 1991 2016 Fiskeri: 26,2 milliarder NOK (29 %) Havbruk: 65,5 milliarder NOK (71 %) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1991 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fiskeri Havbruk
Det norske torskefiskeriet.. Sesong preget: ca. 80% landes fra januar til april Biologien til torsken Majoriteten av torskekvota er allokert til kystflåten Ca. 70% 13.02.2017 Presentasjonstittel 10
Produktformer 13.02.2017 11
European Supply and demand of Cod and Haddock 13.02.2017 12
Agenda Trade flow for cod and haddock The largest suppliers The largest markets UK imports and consumption Demand analysis 13.02.2017 13
Global supply Thousand MT 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Atlantic Cod 98% is European Thousand MT 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Haddock FAO 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 FAO 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 13/02/2017 14
82% of global supply is from Norway, Russia and Iceland 13.02.2017
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100 % Main Product forms - Exports 100 % 75 % 50 % 25 % Frozen Fresh Conventional (cured) 0 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 100 % 2015 2016 conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen 75 % 50 % Russia Frozen 75 % 50 % 25 % Frozen Fresh Conventional (cured) 0 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen 25 % 0 % 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *Round Weight with RWE factors from Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries conventional (cured) fresh/chilled frozen 13.02.2017 17
250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Portugal Denmark China, People's Republic of United Kingdom 250 000 69% Poland Five Largest Markets 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 United Kingdom France Spain United States 2014 2015 2016 81% Portugal 2014 2015 2016 200 000 150 000 100 000 60% 50 000 *Direct Export measured in Tonnes (Round Weight) 0 Netherlands China, People's Republic of United Kingdom 2014 2015 2016 Norway Germany 13.02.2017 18
EU IMPORTS OF COD AND HADDOCK 13.02.2017 19
Percentage 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EU Import Dependency* *2014 numbers 13.02.2017 20
99% EU Import of Cod and Haddock YTD (Jan-Nov) Round Weight Thousand MT 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 *Excluding Intra-trade Norway Iceland China, People's Republic of Russian Federation Faroe Islands United States Greenland 2013 2014 2015 2016 21
Round Weight MT Biggest Import Markets in EU 400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Great Britain Netherlands Portugal Sweeden France Spain Denmark Germany Poland *Including Intra-trade 2014 2015 2016 13.02.2017 22
UK Market For COD AND HADDOCK 13.02.2017 23
Round Weight MT 450000 UK Imports of Cod And Haddock 400000 350000 300000 Haddock Frozen 77% Haddock Fresh 23% 250000 200000 150000 100000 Cod Frozen 79% Cod Fresh 16% 50000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 cod haddock 13.02.2017 24
Prices in GBP Import prices of Cod and Haddock 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Prices Round Weight cod haddock 13.02.2017 25
Demand Analysis 13.02.2017 Presentasjonstittel 26
Demand Model Boring 13.02.2017 27
Elasticity of Demand and substitutions between Cod and Haddock Table. Estimated I ncome Elasticity and M arshallian Price Elasticity (AIDS model with data 2005:M 1~2014:M 5) Income Own-Price Cross price elasticity, w.r.t. Species Elasticity Elasticity Cod Haddock Salmon Cod 0.86-1.85 0.59 0.13 Haddock 0.92-1.38 0.79-0.49 Salmon 1.14-0.81 0.16-0.21 The income elasticity of cod is 0.86, indicating that a 1% increased income leads to 0.86% increase in cod consumption. The own-price elasticity is -1.85. When price increases by 1%, the volume of cod consumed would reduce by 1.85%. This leads to a reduction in revenue. Cross-price elasticity reveals response of cod volume to changes in the prices of substitutes. For example, if haddock price rises 1%, consumers would partly substitute out haddock with cod. This would raise cod volume by 0.59%. 13.02.2017 28
Kg UK consumption of Cod and Haddock Fillets 2500 2000 Frozen Haddock Fillets 7% 1500 Fresh Haddock Fillets 35% 1000 Fresh Cod Fillets 12% 500 Fresh Cod Fillets 45% 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source; Europanel/NSC Cod - Fillets - Fresh Cod - Fillets - Frozen Haddock - Fillets - Fresh Haddock - Fillets - Frozen 13.02.2017 29
Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Fresh 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fresh - Cod - Fillets Fresh - Haddock - Fillets Source: Europanel/NSC 13.02.2017 30
Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP 10 9 Frozen 8 7 6 5 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Frozen - Cod - Fillets Frozen - Haddock - Fillets Source: Europanel/NSC 13.02.2017 31
Prices of Cod and Haddock Fillets Prices in GBP 14 13 Fresh 12 11 10 9 8 Frozen 7 6 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cod - Fillets - Fresh Cod - Fillets - Frozen Haddock - Fillets - Fresh Haddock - Fillets - Frozen Source: Europanel/NSC 13.02.2017 32
Results
Results Income elasticity Own-Price Elasticity Cod Fresh Filet Cross price elasticity, w.r.t. Haddock Fresh filet Cod Frozen Filet Haddock Frozen Filet Product Cod Fresh Filet 1.157-1.377 0.203 Haddock fresh Filet 0.836-1.328 0.389 0.173 Cod Frozen Filet 0.870-2.577 0.903 0.760 Haddock Frozen Filet 1.039-1.898 1.143 13.02.2017 34
Response to change in Income When income Increases the consumer buy more Cod and Haddock 13.02.2017 35
Response to change in Price When Price Increase... the consumer buy less Cod and Haddock Good Price! Too expensive! 13.02.2017 36
Substitution When Price of Fresh Cod Fillets Increase... I go for haddock instead some consumer buys Fresh Haddock Fillets in stead 13.02.2017 37
We find that when income increases the consumption of Cod and Haddock increases 13.02.2017 38
We find that consumers are price sensitive When price of Fresh Cod Filets increases then consumption decreases And opposite when price decreases consumers are more sensitive to increases in the price of the frozen products 13.02.2017 39
We find that there is substitution between Species When price of Fresh Cod Filets increases the consumption of Fresh Haddock Filets increases And opposite when Fresh Haddock Filets price increases.. 13.02.2017 40
We find that but there is less substitution between Fresh and Frozen When price of Fresh Cod Filets increase the consumption of the frozen filets does not change 13.02.2017 41
Summary 98% of cod and haddock are supplied by european countries EU is the most important market for cod and haddock UK is the most important market within the EU UK importers and consumers are prices sensitive, responsive to changes in income and they substitute between cod and haddock 13.02.2017 42