NorClim - aktivitet og resultater Helge Drange (NERSC/GfI) Finansiert av NORKLIMA, Norges Forskningsråds klimaforskningsprogram
NorClim Climate of Norway and the Arctic in the 21 st Century 2007-2010 12.5 mill NOK / år 10 partnerinstitusjoner, fordelt på 6 (7) moduler
Aktivitet I Myndigheter, industri, forskning, allmennhet For Norge og Arktis, fokus på ~2030 og ~2100: Atmosfære Hav Kryosfære Dynamisk nedskalering Statistisk nedskalering Kontakt med brukergrupper Formidling NorClim, RegClim, IPCC AR4,...
Aktivitet II Naturlig vs menneskeskapt klimavariasjon-/endring + prediktabilitet For Norge og nordområdene: Atmosfære Hav Kryosfære Analyse Dynamisk tolkning Paleodata, instrumentelle obs., reanalyse, modellkjøringer
IPCC AR5 (feb 2013) Aktivitet III NorESM: Testet og operasjonell i løpet av første halvdel av 2009 Atmosfæreprosesser Havprosesser Kryosfæreprosesser Bio(geo)kjemi Modellforbedring Nasjonalt klimamodellsystem Jordsystemmodell; NorESM IPCC AR4 (feb 2007)
Denne presentasjonen Lite om klimavariabilitet- og endring Noen eksempler på prosess-studier og (videre)utvikling av modellverktøy Noen resultater
Empirical downscaling Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no
Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 black dots: 1x1 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no
mm/måned 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des 55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal Gridcell from HIRHAM 55 x 55 km 2 black dots: 1x1 km 2 Torill Engen-Skaugen, met.no
Temperature, precipitation, snow cover, etc Empirical relationships http://senorge.no
Dynamic downscaling From 300 km to 50, 25 and 8 km Knut-Helge Midtbø/Jan Erik Haugen, met.no
Maksimal time-nedbør (mm/hr), Bergen (foreløpige resultater) Knut-Helge Midtbø/Jan Erik Haugen, met.no
GISS-AOM 20C3M Component: ocean Resolution: 4 x 3 Variable: SSH Paul Budgell, Arne Melsom, Bjørn Ådlandsvik
Dynamic downscaling ocean Sea Surface Height - March GISS AOM ROMS Obs
Temperature crossection; Bear Isl. W; S-O-N Observations GISS ROMS 300 200 100 0 Distance [km] 300 200 100 0 Distance [km] 300 200 100 0 Distance [km]
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL DEVELOPMENT 1975 1985 1992 2000 2007 2013 Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Operational climate model Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Land surface Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Module development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models Ocean & sea-ice model Sulphur cycle model Land carbon cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Non-sulphate aerosols Carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Hadley Centre, UK
NorESM framework and model components Atmospheric chemistry CAM CICE CLM River routing MICOM HAMOCC Components in blue communicate trough a coupling component. Components in red are subroutines of blue components.
NorESM Horizontal ocean grid Dipole grid (default CCSM) Tripole grid
First results CCSM vs NorESM CCSM NorESM IPCC-version of NorESM will be frozen in March 2009 Verification integrations 2009 Scenario integrations 2010-2011 IPCC AR5 report, Feb 2013
Anthropogenic forcing of the climate system IPCC AR4
OH+DMS Aerosol lifecycle schematic SO2 Gas-phase SO4(ga) Wet-phase emission nucleation condensation coagulation In cloud droplets Q(SO2) Q(SO4) Nucleation Aitken Accumulation Coarse Sulphate SO4(n) SO4(a) SO4(ac) SO4(aq) BC Q(BC)ff BC(n) SO4/BC(a) SO4/BC(ac) SO4/OM/BC(ac) OM OM/BC Q(OM)ff Q(OM)bb Q(BC)bb OM(a) SO4/OM/BC(a) OM/BC(a) SS/SO4/OM/BC(ac) DU/SO4/OM/BC(ac) Seasalt Q(ss) SO4/SS(a) SO4/SS(ac) SO4/SS(c) Mineral dust Q(du) SO4/DU(ac) SO4/DU(c)
Indirekte effekt av aerosoler Jón Egill Kristjánsson (UiO) Figur fra NASA
Forcing - Response and feedbacks Ex: Equilibrium response to aerosol forcing Direct radiative forcing Indirect radiative forcing Aerosol Forcing 0.03 W m -2-0.03 W m -2-1.42 C -4.5% -1.42 W m -2 Equilibrium Response Near surface air Temperature C Precipitation % T. Iversen, A. Kirkevaag
Data base with ice crystal optical properties Developed by Michael Kahnert (NILU/SMHI) The computations are based on geometric optics (GO) approximation and Monte Carlo simulations Four different ice crystal shapes Crystal sizes 5 3000 µm (27 different sizes). Wavelengths 200-2600 nm (31 different wavelengths). Data on asymmetry parameter (g), extinction cross section (C ext ), scattering cross section (C sca ), and single scattering albedo (a) for each particle set. Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson
Data from CALIPSO Ex: Across the Arctic region 27 Nov 2007 Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson
Backscatter: Cirrus location Optical depth Depolarization ratio: Ice crystal shape
HAMOCC 5.1 HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model Prognostic slab atmosphere (CO 2, N 2, O 2 ) Air-Sea Gas Exchange (CO 2, N 2,O 2 ) Thickness 90m Deep Ocean (remineralisation, sinking) Sediment model J. Tjiputra, BCCR
Havisutbredelse i Arktis i september: Observasjon og klimamodeller IPCC 2007
In situ measurements of albedo S. Gerland, NP Spectral albedo and reflectance (Sensors 320-950 nm, 350-2500 nm) Different sea ice/snow surfaces (young ice, first-year ice, multiyear ice) Different times of season (pre-/post melt onset) Lead and melt pond contribution
Hamburg Arctic Test Basin Setup Spacer tank Tank3: Waves Meteorological.sensors Wave paddle Wave paddle 3.00m 3.00m Beach Beach Tank1: Quiescent zone Tank2: Waves 8.50 m 2.50 m 16.00 m 3.00 m Sensor legend Turbulence cluster +CTD Irradiance measurements Ice Harp: Brine measurements Infra-red camera Depth: 1 m NaCl water=34.5 psu Ultrasonic sensor: wave data Pressure transducers: wave data CTD: salinity and temperature Thermistor chain: temperature Moveable CTD: salinity, temperature + frazil concentration Sara de la Rosa, UiB
Experimental Programme Use of facility for 15 days: Oct. 2007 & March 2008 5 experiments - frequency range: 0.66 Hz to 1.25 Hz Wave Makers Insight into: Ice-growth Brine Drainage Pancake-ice formation Wave attenuation Optical Properties Sara de la Rosa, UiB
Future of the Arctic sea ice (1D ice model by Björk 1989 2004) ~300 W/m² summer 103 W/m² 400 W/m² 0-150W/m² Steady state values ~15 W/m² Ice flux Fram Strait Compares to 4 W/m² ~2 W/m² L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008
(I) Arctic sea ice thickness distribution Submarines 50 s red and 90 s blue Yu et al (2004) L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008
(II) Export of ice out of the Arctic has increased since 2003 L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008
Model scenarios, September 1960-situation Normal ice export and present global warming ; ~1 m 2007 thickness may recover to ~2 m Adding today's high export thickness is stable With 2*CO2, about 2050 95 % of summer ice lost L H Smedsrud et al, GRL 2008
Oppsummering NorClim Variabilitet Å identifisere og undersøke mekanismer for klimavariasjoner p tidsskala fra år til flere tiår (mulighet for prediktabilitet?) Forbedret modellsystem Å forbedre forståelsen og implementeringen av prosesser i klimasystemet som er dårlig beskrevet i dagens klimamodeller Scenariokjøringer Å levere klimascenarioer med fokus på år 2030 og 2100 for Norge og Norges nærområder, samt tallfeste usikkerheter Formidling Å formidle kunnskapsbasert og relevant informasjon om utviklingen av det fysiske klimaet til myndigheter, forskere, industri, NGO og allmennhet Jordsystemmodell Å etablere en nasjonal jordsystemmodell (Earth System Model) ved å samkjøre modellsystemer og analyseverktøyer i Norge Kompetansebygging Å bidra til langsiktig kompetanseheving av klimaforskningen i Norge
norclim.no
Natural variability versus global warming
Natural variability versus global warming
60 o W 120 o W JJA cyclone number SRESA1B 20C3M 180 o W 36 o N 48 o N 60 o N 72 o N 84 o N 120 o E 60 o E Increase: end of stormtracks Reduction: southern boundary of the stormtracks 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 INCREASE 0 o REDUCTION
CAM-Oslo model run: Impact of new parameterization (July) Changed cloud forcing (ΔCF): CF(New) CF(Original) parameterization Positive ΔCF in shortwave region and negative ΔCF in longwave region Net radiation: -0.9 W/m 2 Lat>60ºN: +10.7 W/m 2 in SW and -3.3 W/m 2 in LW Tove Svendby, Cathrine L. Myhre, Jon Egill Kristjansson