Hvor går oljeprisen, og hva betyr det for investeringsnivået på norsk sokkel? Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Macro/Oil September 2012 @ThinaSaltvedt
Nordea: Brent oljepris prognoser i USD per fat 04/09/2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2011 106 160 115 112 110 111 2012E 118 USD 109 per barrel 112 109 112 2013E 108 110 112 114 111 2014E 114 114 116 116 115 120 USD per barrel Back on track 160 120 Baseline 80 Sinking feeling 80 40 40 0 Forecast 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 0 Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin 2
Den globale oljeetterspørselsveksten avhenger av den økonomiske aktiviteten 8.0% Real GDP vs Oil demand growth, change y/y World 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.7% 2.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 3.7% 2.2% 4.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.4% 3.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 5.3% 3.1% 3.9% 0.7% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% -0.7% -0.6% -1.1% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-0.5% -2.0% -4.0% -3.6% -1.4% -1.4% -1.1% -1.9% -2.1% -2.3% -2.4% -2.9% -2.7% -3.0% -3.3% -3.5% -3.8% -6.0% Oil demand Real GDP growth Oil intensity Trend oil intensity Global oil demand growth below trend until 2014 *Oil intensity: The amount of oil consumed per unit of real GDP Source: IEA, Nordea Markets 3
Demand for middle distillates to continue with strongest growth 160 World Oil demand Indexed, 100 = 1990 Index 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Gasoil/diesel Oil ex-gasoil/diesel Source: PIRA, Nordea Markets 4
Transportsektoren utgjør mer enn halvparten av verdens oljeetterspørsel World transportation oil demand by mode 52% 60% Source: IEA 5
Verdens største netto oljeeksportører - bare 2 politisk stabile 6 5 OPECs buffer kapasitet på et ukomfortabelt lavt nivå Implied OPEC effective spare capacity and Brent price forecast 112 109 140 120 4 109 100 Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Canada Qatar Algeria Venezuela Norway Angola Iraq Nigeria Kuwait UAE Iran Russia Saudi Arabia mb/d 3 2 1 0 4Q2002 2Q2004 4Q2005 2Q2007 4Q2008 2Q2010 4Q2011 Effective spare Effective spare (f'cast) Brent 1.pos, rhs Brent (f'cast), rhs 80 60 40 20 USD/bbl 0 2 4 6 8 10 Million barrels per day 6
Oljeeksportørenes budsjetts breakeven pris vil i økende grad påvirke oljeprisutviklingen Source: IEA 7
OPEC crude capacity still flat after 30 years PIRA forecast OPEC capacity to grow 1.6mb/d by 2015. Downside risk due to increased Middle East unrest creating hostile investment environment 8
Global E&P spending by onshore/offshore Source: Rystad Energi 9
Skiferoljerevolusjonen veier opp for tilbudssideforstyrrelser utenfor OPEC 17.5 USD per mmbtu USD per barrel 150 15.0 125 12.5 Natural Gas Henry Hub, lhs 100 10.0 7.5 75 5.0 50 2.5 25 WTI light sweet crude, rhs 0.0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 Source: Reuters EcoWin 10 Source: PIRA and Reuters Ecowin
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potensial 1,069 624 1,404 1,225 1,042 396 tcm Source: EIA 11
28 confirmed LNG newbuilds spreading outside Norway Confirmed orderbook Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2012 General Cargo Nordnorsk Shipping DNV 2012 PSV Eidesvik Shipping DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 High speed RoPax Buquebus DNV 2012 PSV Island Offshore DNV 2012 PSV REM DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2012 Harbor vessel Incheon Port Authority 2013 General Cargo Eidsvaag DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Norled 2013 Car/passenger ferry Norled 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 RoPax Viking Line LR 2013 Tug Buksér & Berging DNV 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2013 Patrol vessel Finish Border Guard GL 2013 Car/passenger ferry Society of Quebec ferries Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2014 Car/passenger ferry Society of Quebec ferries 2014 Tug Buksér & Berging DNV 2014 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2014 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine ABS 2014 PSV Remøy Shipping Updated 27.06.2012 Source: DNV 12
Verden i ulage Norge i toppform: En oljesmurt økonomi
Veksten i verden blir grei
Mind the gap! Budsjettunderskudd (% av BNP) Norge 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -10-11 -12 Spania USA Slovakia Kypros Slovenia Luxembourg Nederland Malta Finland UK Irland Frankrike Portugal Euro snitt Italia Østerrike Belgia Tyskland -175-150 -125-100 -75-50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Hellas Statsgjeld (% av BNP)
Eksport av fisk viktigere 96.0 95.0 94.0 % Andel av tradisjonell vareeksport i % Industriprodukter (v.a.) Produkter fra jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske % 10.0 9.0 8.0 93.0 7.0 92.0 6.0 91.0 5.0 90.0 4.0 89.0 3.0 88.0 Bergverksprodukter 2.0 87.0 Elektrisk kraft 1.0 86.0 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.0 Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
Offshore sektoren utgjør en stor del av BNP NOK 372 mrd eller 30 % av statens inntekter (2011) er nettoinntekter fra petroleumssektoren Oljefondet var på NOK 3650 mrd (slutten av August 2012) 17
Statens Pensjonsfond Utland det neste største SWF i verden gir fleksibilitet til den norske økonomien USD Billion 15 største Sovereign Wealth Funds 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Billion 2012 NOK 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Kjerneregelen 4% og ikke-olje korrigert underskudd 0 18 Sources: Norges Bank and SWF Institute
Tidsline for de største oljefunnene på den NKS Kumulativ vekst i reservene Statfjord (3568 mboe), Sleipner Oseberg (2373 mboe), Snorre (1517 mboe) Troll (1573 mboe) Snøhvit Heidrun (1063 mboe) Draugen (900 mboe) Grane (759 mboe) Norne (587 mboe) Ormen Lange Goliat (175 mboe) Johan Sverdup (1761 mboe), Skrugard (241 mboe) Ekofisk (3363 mboe) Gullfaks (2298 mboe) Tiden hvor store funn ble gjort Tiden hvor små funn ble gjort 19 Source: NPD
2011/2012 årene da norsk oljeindustri kunne juble 20
Oljeinvesteringene har økt kraftig som følge av høye oljepriser, nye funn og tilgang til nye områder Oljeinvesteringer selskapenes estimater Potential Sources: NPD and SSB 21
Oljeindustriens verdikjede Figure 35: Oil industry value chain Seismic Surveys Exploration & Development Drilling Pre- Engineering/ Concept Studies Fabrication & Installation Production & Maintenance Decommissioning Source: Nordea Markets 22
E&P expenditures for den norske kontinentalsokkel - Onshore og Offshore. Prognoser 2012-2020 50,000 Million USD 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Seismic and G&G Transportation and Logistics Subsea Equipment and Installation Topside and Processing Equipment Rigs and Drilling Contractors Drilling Tools and Commodities Well Service Procurement, Construction and Installation Engineering Operational and Professional Services Maintenance Services Source: Rystad Energy 23
Økende produksjonskostnader vil bli en utfordring på norsk sokkel fremover Samlede letekostnader på norsk Kontinentalsokkel fordelt på kostnadskategori Source: NPD 24
Antall sysselsatte fordelt på sektor 40% 35% Møre og Romsdal Kristiansund Hele landet 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske Olje, energi og industri Bygge og anleggsvirksomhet Varehandel og transport Overnattings og serveringsvirksomhet Privat og forretningsmessig tjenesteyting Offentlig sektor 25
Antall sysselsatte i oljesektoren og antall arbeidsledige i Møre og Romsdal og landet samlet Antall sysselsatte Antall arbeidsledige 5.0 1,200 1,000 800 Møre og Romsdal Kristiansund 4.5 4.0 3.5 Møre og Romsdal Hele landet 600 3.0 400 200 0 Utvinning av råolje og naturgass Tjenester til bergverk og utvinning Utvinning og tjenester til olje og gass 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Kilde: SSB 26
Befolkningsvekst i Møre og Romsdal og hele landet samlet 1.5% Hele landet Møre og Romsdal 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% Source: SSB 27
Contact details: Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Senior Macro/Oil Analyst Commodities Research Nordea Markets Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com @ThinaSaltvedt 28
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