Hva nytt kan vi gjøre - for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde?

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1 Hva nytt kan vi gjøre - for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde? Arild Ragnøy Trafikksikkerhetsseksjonen Vegdirektoratet Versjon 2 pr 20/12 17

2 Offisiell ulykkesstatistikk : 600 Drepte * * Foreløpig2017 2

3 Litt om innholdet Vi best på TS i verden, men målsettingene framover er høye TØI har førsøkt forklare utviklingen Hva er utfordringene og hva kan vi velge Tiltak med høyt potensiale for ulykkesreduksjon Teknologi i bil (Noen bidrag fra BEST programmet) Hvordan skal vi lykkes? 3

4 TS arbeidet har bragt oss fremst i Europa Drepte pr million i Europa 2016 Kilde: Nasjonal tiltaksplan på veg 4

5 I neste forslag til NTP er måltallene ennå tøffere Antall drepte og hardt skadde Registrert antall drepte og hardt skadde Middels ambisjonsnivå (beregnet) Forslag til målkurve fram til 2030 Kurve for nullsituasjonen Høyt ambisjonsnivå (beregnet) 5

6 Tiltak for å redusere antall drepte /hardt skadde i tiden som kommer Hva gjør vi for å velge riktige tiltak Hvordan leter vi etter tiltak med stort potensiale framover? Trafikant tiltak Ny teknologi Kjøretøy tiltak Veg tiltak Vi samler kunnskap Vi evaluerer effekten av tiltak Arild Ragnøy, Vegdirektoratet 6

7 Medvirkende årsaker til ulykker Kunnskap om faktorer som kan medvirke til ulykker UAG rapportene våre

8 Andeler (%) av total nedgang i D+HS 3 30,8% er forklart med de aktuelle tiltakene DVS 69,2% er IKKE forklart 8

9 Hva er utfordringene framover? De «beste» tiltakene er brukt opp. Små tiltak med stor utbredelse kan ha stort potensiale NTP gåing og sykling vs nullvisjonen Gruppen «regelbrytere» er konstant? ITS på godt og vondt Befolknings- og adferdsendringer. Førerløse biler og kjøretøyteknologi 9

10 Hvilke tiltak er det som virker? Tiltak med stort potensiale for å redusere antall drepte og hardt skadde er et produkt av Effekt (reduksjon i %) Eksponering (kjtkm) Virkningsmekanisme (hvilke ulykker påvirkes) Dette betyr at et tiltak med stor utbredelse og beskjeden effekt ( som f eks en fartskampanje), kan ha et større potensiale en et tiltak med høy effekt og liten utbredelse (som f ekse ATK) Tiltak i kjøretøyparken kan ha stort potensiale 10

11 Tiltak i kjøretøyene Teknologi i bil teknologiutvikling - restriktive kjøretøytiltak Tre gode rapporter fra BEST-programmet: Førerstøttesystemer Kjøring uten fører-rett Restriktive kjøretøytiltak (I alle biler etter 2020) Tvingende ISA Alkolås Elektronisk fører kort 11

12 Smakebiter fra BEST-programmet Førerstøttesystemer - En litteraturstudie Rapporten utgjør «plattformen» i kunnskapen om effekten av ulike systemer Litteraturstudie for å kartlegge hvert enkelt førerstøttesystems TS-effekt - de estimerte effektene er basert på de antatt beste empiriske studiene som er funnet En Delphi-studie der eksperter ble konsultert i flere omganger for å utvikle mulige utviklingsscenarioer for implementering av de aktuelle førerstøttesystemene (TØI rapport 1450/2015) 12

13 Hvilke systemer skulle undersøkes? Det ble gjort et utvalg på grunnlag av at systemene skulle ha relativt liten utbredelse i dag samtidig som de måtte ha relativt stor virkning på drepte og hardt skadde (D+HS) Med andre ord: Gevinsten av effektiv implementering skulle være stor og foreløpig ikke tatt ut 13

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15 -29,4 % ALLE AVANSERTE VARIANTER -18,8 % ALLE BASISVARIANTER Effekter på alle D+HS -12,1 % -10,9 % -8,3 % -8,1 % -6,9 % -5,6 % -3,5 % -2,9 % Tvingende ISA Alkolås og ruslås Alkolås Kjørefeltholder Overstyrbar ISA Varslende ISA Feltskiftevarsler ACC med FCW og AEB Effekt på alle D+HS -0,9 % -0,8 % Fotgj.sykl.varsl. med AEB og BS Fotgj.sykl.varsl. med AEB -0,6 % Fotgjengervarsling med AEB 15

16 Forventet effekter på D+HS : Prosent Alle førerstøttesystem 16

17 Tiltak i kjøretøyet Tvangs-innfører restriktive tiltak i alle personbiler etter 2020 Et regne ekspriment Tvingende ISA Alkolås Elektroniske fører kort A 18

18 Dødsulykker ved kjøring uten førerrett Dybdestudier av UAG Dobbelttellingen 19

19 Restriktive tiltak: Forventet nedgang i ulykker ved implementering i alle biler Førerautentisering Alkolås Fartssperre Førerautent + alkolås Førerautent + fartssperre Alkolås + fartssperre Alle tre tiltak Prosent Min Max 20

20 Scenario: Implementering i alle nye personbiler fra Antall drepte + hardt skadde Trend Min effekt Max effekt Samlet effekt færre drepte eller hardt skadde færre drepte 21

21 Avgjørende for den samlede effekten på D+HS er utskiftingstakten av biler Andelen av trafikkarbeidet med ny teknologi er avgjørende for den samlede effekt Uten «politikk» tar det 27 år å skifte ut en bilpark I mellomtiden er det viktig at vi har tiltak (og politi) 22

22 Noen forutsetninger for å lykkes: Fortsette det systematiske og målrettede trafikksikkerhetsarbeid som er basert på et faglig solid grunnlag og samarbeid mellom flere aktører Mange små (og store) tiltak nye grep og videreføring av tiltak vi vet fungerer. Mer bruk av restriktive tiltak kan være nødvendig En mer progressiv kjøretøypolitikk Et annet område kan være fartsgrensepolitikk Uansett vi trenger god kunnskap 23

23 Takk for oppmerksomheten 24

24 Litt Bonusmateriale 25

25 Kan utviklingen fra i antall D+HS fra forklares? TØI rapport 1299/

26 Andeler (%) av forklart nedgang i D+HS fordelt på de ulike tiltakene TØI rapport 1299/2014 Utviklingen i antall D+HS Totalt 9 «målbare» tiltak Kjøretøytiltak Vegtiltak Tiltak mot fart Tung MC Unge mopedister Unge bilførere i eneulykker Barn med fotgj og sykkel Beltebruk ATK 27

27 Andeler (%) av forklart nedgang i D+HS fordelt på de ulike tiltakene 3 En reduksjon i antall D+HS 330 av 1076 ble forklart DVs 30.8 % TØI rapport 1299/

28 31% TØI beskriver også noen tiltak som kan virke, men som er vanskelig å tallfeste Tiltak på vegnettet Reduserte fartsgrenser Vegbelysning Tiltak i kurver Utbedring av gangfelt Siderekkverk og sideterreng Utbedring av kryss/rundkjør Kjøretøytiltak Biler med forbedret kollisjonsvern for fotgjengere TØI rapport 1299/

29 31% Hvorfor blir det slik? (1) Ikke alle effekter av tiltak kan måles Ikke alle omfang kan måles like presist Vitenskapelig sikkerhet for at et tiltak virker Når vi skal trekke vitenskapelig holdbare konklusjoner om effekter, må vi være sikre på at vi gjør rett Dette er enklere når effekten er stor enn når den er liten. Det er vanskeligere å påvise effekten av en fartskampanje enn det er av ATK 30