SKAGEN Global. Statusrapport desember 2013

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1 SKAGEN Global Statusrapport desember 013

2 Hovedtrekk i desember 013 SKAGEN Global gjorde det dårligere enn sin referanseindeks i desember. Fondet steg 0,04 prosent mens MSCI All Country World Index steg 0,7 prosent. Så langt i år er fondet opp 31,1 prosent,,7 prosent etter indeks. Ingen nye selskaper ble lagt til i porteføljen i desember. Vi solgte våre gjenværende poster i Vivendi og reduserte vår posisjon i Ensco, Oracle og Kinnevik i løpet av måneden. Netto kontantbeholdning i SKAGEN Global steg fra,5 prosent i november til 4,1 prosent i desember. De ti største postene ble redusert fra 31,9 prosent til 31,6 prosent av fondet. SKAGEN Global består nå av 99 selskaper. Tyco International (3,1% av fondet) var den beste bidragsyteren til absoluttavkastning i desember (opp 7 prosent i USD). Renault (1,9 prosent av fondet) var den dårligste bidragsyteren (ned 10 prosent i EUR). SKAGEN Globals portefølje er fortsatt attraktivt verdsatt både på absolutt og relativ basis. Fondets 35 største poster handles til en pris/inntjening ( 14e) på 8,6 og en pris/bok på 1,1. Verdsettelsene for aksjer er fortsatt attraktive sammenlignet med det lave rentenivået. Verdivurderinger for noen sektorer og geografiske områder er nå over historisk gjennomsnitt. Dermed har verdivurderingene blitt mer sårbare for stigende renter eller et tilbakeslag for den økonomiske veksten. Direkteavkastningen for aksjer er for tiden forholdsvis høy sammenlignet med obligasjonsrenter. Ledende indikatorer har nylig indikert stigende økonomisk aktivitet i både utviklede økonomier og vekstmarkeder. Vi tror det er gode muligheter for at den globale økonomiske veksten i 014 kommer til å overgå veksten i 013. Sterke selskapsbalanser og bedre økonomiske utsikter bør understøtte økt aktivitet innen oppkjøp og fusjoner og at mer penger flyter tilbake til aksjonærene gjennom utbytter og tilbakekjøp av aksjer. 1

3 Avkastning, desember 013 Desember Hittil i kv år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Global 0,0% 8,7% 31,1% 31,1% 10,5% 14,8% 1,% 15,7% Verdensindeks (NOK)* 0,7% 8,% 33,9% 33,9% 11,3% 10,9% 5,6% 3,1% Meravkastning -0,7% 0,6% -,7% -,7% -0,8% 3,9% 6,6% 1,6% Note: Alle tall ut over 1 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 7. august 1997 ** Referanseindeksen var MSCI World fra 07/08/1997 til 31/1/009 og MSCI All-Country fra 01/01/010 og videre.

4 Årlig avkastning siden start (%)* SKAGEN Global har gjort det bedre enn indeks* i 14 av 17 år Prosent 113 SKAGEN Global* (NOK) MSCI AC World (NOK) * Startdato: 7. august 1997 ** Referanseindeksen var MSCI World fra 07/08/1997 til 31/1/009 og MSCI All-Country fra 01/01/010 og videre. 3

5 Markeder i desember i NOK (%) Prosent Tyskland USA (Nasdaq) Russland Storbritannia Nederland India USA (S&P 500) Norge (OSEBX) Canada Verdensindeksen Frankrike Japan Taiwan Italia Mexico SKAGEN GLOBAL Sør-Afrika Singapore Vekstmarkedsindeksen Sør-Korea Hong Kong Brasil Indonesia Kina (lokal) Kina (Hong Kong) Thailand Tyrkia

6 Markeder i 013 i NOK (%) Prosent Finland USA (Nasdaq) Spania USA (S&P 500) Tyskland Japan Frankrike Sverige Nederland Italia Verdensindeksen Storbritannia SKAGEN GLOBAL Norge (OSEBX) Taiwan Hong Kong Canada Sør-Korea Polen Singapore Kina (lokal) Mexico Kina (Hong Kong) Russland India Sør-Afrika Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Indonesia Tyrkia Brasil

7 Største bidragsytere, desember 013 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) Selskap NOK (m) Tyco International 87 Ternium 86 Samsung Electronics 71 Sistema 54 Kinnevik 48 Surgutneftegas 45 Nordea 43 Oracle 40 GM 37 Vimpelcom 36 Renault -79 Citigroup -57 China Unicom -56 RSA Insurance Group -51 Yazicilar -41 Kyocera -30 Baker Hughes -1 Bank Asya -19 Albaraka -17 Petrobras -16 Total verdiskapning i desember: NOK 1 59 millioner Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6

8 Største bidragsytere, hittil i år Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (m) Selskap NOK (m) Samsung Electronics 88 Citigroup 806 Tyco International 541 Renault 36 AIG 337 Vimpelcom 337 Microsoft 39 GM 304 Kinnevik 30 Roche 93 Indosat -100 Banrisul -73 State Bank of India -63 EMGS -53 Bank Asya -50 RSA Insurance Group -49 ADT -3 Albaraka -30 Mosaic -9 Petrobras -9 Total verdiskapning hittil i 013 : NOK millioner Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7

9 Største kjøp og salg, desember 013 Kjøp Salg Oracle ble redusert i desember. Våre analyser gjør oss litt mer skeptisk til veksten i industrien og marginene knyttet til skiftet mot nettsky. Dette har også vært støttet av til dels skuffende resultater fra både Oracle og andre aktører i løpet av det siste året. Vi ser fremdeles oppside i aksjen, men med mindre overbevisning enn tidligere. Kinnevik har blitt omvurdert i 013 med en kursutvikling på mer enn 10%. Hovedgrunnen er investorfokus på selskapets e- handelvirksomhet (Zalando og andre). Rabatter på underliggende verdier har gått fra ca. 30% til en betydelig premium.. Selv om vi fremdeles ser verdipotensial i selskapets nettbaserte virksomhet, synes vi verdsettelsen er blitt høy nok til at vi har valgt å redusere vår posisjon i selskapet. Ensco ble ytterligere trimmet, og utgjør nå 1% av fondet. Det er tegn til oppmykning av dagsratene for midwater-segmentet, og dette kan potensielt også påvirke deepwater-segmentet. Selv om Ensco har solid balanse, ny UDW-flåte og oppgradert sin jack-up-flåte vil det være vanskelig å øke inntektene så mye som forventet med dagsratene på vei ned. Vivendi solgte vi oss helt ut av etter å ha nådd kursmålet. Det er ikke lenger en konglomeratrabatt og vi ser ikke de underliggende verdiene som særlig attraktive. 8

10 Viktige endringer så langt i 013 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Surgutneftegas Mosaic (ny) Vinda International (ny) China Unicom Bunge Technip (ny) Lundin Mining Q1 Pentair (ut) SCA Pfizer Eletrobras Gjensidige Forsikring TE Connectivity Q Sberbank RSA Insurance Group State Bank of India (ny) Prosegur (ny) Nordea Bank (ny) Philips (ny) Q Pfizer (ut) SCA Gjensidige Forsikring Sabanci Holding Toyota Industries Oracle Q3 Q4 AIG Vale (ny) Ensco LG Corp Tata Motors (ny) Nordea Bank Gafisa (ny) OCI (ny) China Communications (ny) Storebrand (ny) BW LPG (ny) Norsk Hydro Technip Deutsche Wohnen (ny) Q3 Q4 Nabors Industries (ut) TRW Automotive (ut) Toyota Industries Siemens SCA (ut) Noble (ut) TE connectivity (ut) Vinda International (ut) Gjensidige Forsikring (ut) ut) Ensco GSW (ut) Kinnevik 9

11 Største poster i SKAGEN Global, pr 31. desember 013 Postens Pris P/E P/E P/BV Kurs størrelse, % 013e 014e last mål SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CITIGROUP TYCO INTERNATIONAL NORDEA GAZPROM AIG AKZO NOBEL CHINA UNICOM MICROSOFT RENAULT Vektet topp % Vektet topp MSCI AC World

12 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks Sector distribution Energi Råvarer Geographical distribution Asia ex Japan 18 8 EMEA 8 Fond Indeks Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans IT Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter Frontier Markets Japan Kjerne-EU Nord-Amerika Norge Perifer-EU Sør-Amerika Oceania Kontanter

13 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper på engelsk 1

14 Key earnings releases and corporate news, December 013 Oracle (1.4%) Reports better than expected quarterly result Summary: Oracle reported a marginally better than expected quarterly result driven by hardware sales, which declined less than expected. Overall revenues grew marginally, driven by service revenue growth. On the negative side, operating costs grew more than expected, driven by an increase of new sales people. Thus, EPS growth of 6% was mainly a result of a lower tax rate and a reduced number of shares outstanding. Implications: We have taken down our position as we have become incrementally more concerned about the industry growth and margins in the move towards cloud. Thus, it was good to see the company doing relatively well operationally and continuing its capital return discipline. Technip (1.0%) Disappointing 014 guidance Summary: Q1 margin will be hampered by the late arrival of their newest vessel the Deep Energy and will come in at 5% and thereby lower the full-year subsea margin to 14%. Other reasons for the weak margin include early project phasing which they do not yet book margin for, some extra start up costs at their new plant in Brazil and twice the level of vessel maintenance to get their fleet ready for the campaigns in West Africa. Thanks to good visibility, Technip also provided guidance for 015 and it looks better with subsea revenue exceeding EUR 5bn at a 15-17% margin. Management comments on market outlook were also more bullish than expected and they see the market concerns over E&P spending cuts being overplayed. Implications: We still rate Technip best in class with a solid balance sheet, good backlog and a good pipeline of potential new projects to be awarded in the near future. Appetite for oil service names is non-existent so it will take time for this to change 13

15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, December 013 (cont.) RSA Insurance (0.8%) More losses in Ireland Summary: RSA completed its review made by PWC and the key finding was need of an additional GBP 135m for claims reserves. This is in addition to the GBP 70m announced in November. Simon Lee resigned as CEO. The stock declined 15%. The profit warnings will put the final 013 dividend at risk. The possibility of a rights issue cannot be ruled out. Implications: The low provisioning in the Irish operations is probably a standalone issue and not a guidance for similar problems in RSA s other operations. After a massive underperformance in 013, the company stands out as a clear takeover target. Its Scandinavian operations in particular should be an attractive target for some of the global P&C companies as Scandinavia is one of the most attractive P&C markets worldwide. RSA should achieve RoE of 13-14% in a normal year. We view current price/book of ~1 as low compared to normalized earnings. Teva (1.6%) 014 guidance Summary: Teva provided a rather broad ranging guidance for 014: Revenues: USD19-1bn and EPS of USD The low end of the range assumes generic competition for Copaxone from June 014 and the high end is without generic competition. Implications: Our investment thesis is based on generic competition for Copaxone after the patent expiry in May 014. In our sum of the parts calculation we have valued Copaxone at USD 6/share. The main issue for Teva is to improve profitability in it s generic business and to improve efficiency in its operations. Successful R&D projects in its pipeline of new drugs will come as a bonus as the market does not put any value on its pipeline currently. A potential revaluation trigger could be the appointment of a new CEO (expected in January 014). 14

16 The largest companies in SKAGEN Global Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics with employees. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces domestic appliances, cameras, printers, PCs and air conditioners. Citi is a US financial conglomerate with operations in more than 100 countries worldwide. The bank was bailed out by the US government during the credit crisis and subsequently raised USD 50bn of new capital. Consists of two units: Citi Holdings which is a vehicle for ca. USD 500bn of assets that are to be run down and sold and Citi Corp which is the core of the going concern business. In Citicorp 60% of revenues are derived from outside the US - mainly in emerging markets. Tyco International is a Swiss-based and NYSE-listed company focused on fire and security solutions for companies and government entities. It is market leader in most of the market segments where it operates. Approximately 4% of revenues are derived from services with the remainder coming from equipment sales. 48% of revenues come from North America, 7% from EMEA, 0% from APAC and 5% from Latin America. Nordea has the number one position in the Nordics with 11.m retail costumers and 65,000 corporate clients. It holds the number first or second positions in every Nordic country. Nordea is the largest Nordic asset manager/wealth manager with EUR 4bn in AuM (EUR 138bn in managed funds). It is the most diversified among its Nordic peers. Total loans are EUR 346bn with the following split: Finland 7%, Sweden 6%, Denmark 4%, Norway 18%, and Baltics/Poland/Russia 5%. Gazprom is the world s largest gas producer with proven gas reserves of 550bn m3 (10% of global reserves and equal to 30 years reserve life). The company controls 160,000 km of gas pipelines and has significant storage capacity. It owns and operates Russia s entire high pressure gas transportation network and accounts for 8% of gas supply in Europe. Gazprom is also the 5th largest oil producer in Russia with production of 0.87m boe (9% of Russian output) and Russia s largest power utility with 36GW of installed capacity. 15

17 The largest companies in SKAGEN Global AIG is an international insurance company serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. The company provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services. AIG was at the very centre of the financial crisis as the central bank for mortgage insurance it was bailed out in a 180bn bail out. The company has two core insurance holdings Sun America and Chartis that it intends to keep. The company has set a target to achieve 10% ROE by 015. Akzo Nobel is the world s leading coatings supplier. It is active in three key areas: performance coatings, decorative paints and specialty chemicals. The company has strong positions in all key mature markets globally and a very strong portfolio of emerging markets assets, including top 3 positions in China, India & Brazil. High growth markets make up 44% of sales, with North America representing 15% and developed Europe 38%. After the merger with China Netcom and disposal of CDMA in 008, China Unicom is now a full service provider, offering both fixed-line and mobile (GSM and WCDMA) services. China Unicom has m mobile subscribers, 93m fixed line subscribers, and 61m broadband subscribers. The Chinese government owns 75% of the company. The company is listed in Hong Kong and also has a fairly liquid ADR in New York. Microsoft is the world s largest software company and delivers software to a number of applications from PCs to servers and cell phones its most famous product is Windows and the affiliated Office Software Suite. Over the most recent years the company has also diversified into video game consoles, ERP systems, internet search and cloud based computing. Despite a strong push for diversification 80% of the company s revenues and early all its profits come from three main areas: Windows OS, Windows Server and the business division (Office Suite). Renault is a leading manufacturer of automobiles through brands like Renault, Dacia and Renault Samsung Motors. It holds ownership stakes in Nissan (43.4%), AvtoVaz (5%) and Daimler (1.55%). It has also built up sizable operations in Russia, Turkey, North Africa and Brazil. Renault is also a leader in Electrical Vehicles and holds a -3 years advance vs. competitors. Renault is debt free and its ownership stake in Nissan alone is worth more than the market cap of Renault. 16

18 Multiple expansion a major contributor to market performance in

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