1,5 grader eller 2 grader spelar det noko rolle?

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Frøydis Thoresen
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1 1,5 grader eller 2 grader spelar det noko rolle? Prof Tore Furevik (tore@gfi.uib.no Bjerknessenteret for klimaforskning og Universitetet i Bergen KLIMATOPPMØTET DAGEN DERPÅ. VITENSKAPSAKADEMIET, 17 DES 2018

2 1,5 degree 2 degrees Updated from Medhaug and Drange, 2015

3 Målt temperaturavvik sommarhalvår (Mai-Okt) anomaliar Helge Drange, Bjerknes Centre

4 Målt temperaturavvik vinterhalvår (Nov-Apr) anomaliar Helge Drange, Bjerknes Centre

Paris avtalen 2015 Maks 2 graders oppvarming, helst ned mot 1,5 grader Alle land har sagt kor mykje dei vil kutta fram til 2030, med lovnader om å auke

5 Paris avtalen 2015 Maks 2 graders oppvarming, helst ned mot 1,5 grader Alle land har sagt kor mykje dei vil kutta fram til 2030, med lovnader om å auke ambisjonsnivået kvart 5. år Noreg skal kutte 40% innan 2030 (relativt til 1990), og vil følgja EU sine mål og reguleringar Regelboka for Paris-avtalen vedtatt i Katowice

6 IPCC 1,5 degree Global Carbon Project UNEP emission gap report

7 Ordkrig i Katowice: Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait and Russia said it was enough for the members of the UN climate convention (the UNFCCC) to note the findings, not to welcome the findings

8 Forskjell på 1,5 C og 2 C Hetebølger, tørke, nedbør 8

9 Forskjell på 1,5 C og 2 C At 1,5 C: More frequent heat waves in most land regions. Hot extremes in mid-latitude in warm season increase >3 C Hot extremes in high-latitudes in cold season >4,5 C. IPCC 1,5 degrees

10 Telegraph.co,uk

11 Limiting global warming to 1.5 C instead of 2 C could result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heatwaves, and about 65 million fewer people being exposed to exceptional heatwaves ARRANGEMENT DATO STED Telegraph.co,uk

Risk associated with increases in drought

be substantially larger at 2 C than at 1.

12 Risk associated with increases in drought frequency and magnitude are projected to be substantially larger at 2 C than at 1.5 C in the Mediterranean region and S. Africa. Above 1.5 C, an expansion of desert terrain and vegetation would occur in the Mediterranean biome, causing changes unparalleled in the last 10,000 years. Guardian, 2016

13 Ekstremnedbør The regions with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events for 1.5 C to 2 C global warming include [ ] northern Europe

14 Tropiske orkanar (Houston) Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency but with an increase in the number of very intense cyclones. Heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones higher at 2,0 C compared to 1,5 C of global warming 14 Houston etter orkanen Harvey

15 Forskjell på 1,5 C og 2 C Issmelting og havnivåstigning 15

16 Bondhusbreen 1856 versus 2018 Kvinnheringen, 3. sep 2018

17 Briksdalsbreen 1999 versus 2018

18 NASA

1984 2018 50 % of summer sea ice lost. 75% of volume.

19 % of summer sea ice lost. 75% of volume. 95% of old ice At 1.5 C: 1% chance ice free summer At 2 C: 10% chance ice free summer NASA

20 Isdekket på Grønland Kerim Nisancioglu, Bjerknes Centre

21 J. Sonntag / NASA

22 Greenland looses ice at a rate of 8000 tons per second (Antarctica 4000 tons per sec) NASA

23 Havnivåstigninga vil forsette, også dersom 1,5 C 2 C 1,5 C Mengel et al., (Nature Comm., 2018) 23

25 Global mean sea level rise is projected to be around 0.1 m less for 1,5 C than for 2,0 C at the end of the 21st century. 10 million fewer people will be impacted

26 Dei mest alvorlege konsekvensane: Biologisk mangfald. Matvareproduksjon

27 Global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heat waves. At 1,5, coral reefs will have very frequent mass mortalities. At 2,0 C, they will mostly disappear. 2

28 Risks of extinction are much less in a 1.5 C versus a 2 C warmer world. The number of species projected to lose over half of their climatically determined geographic range: At 2 C: 18% of insects, 16% of plants, 8% of vertebrates At 1,5 C: 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates

29 Klimaendringane truar matsikkerheten For første gong på lenge går talet på underernærte opp. Hovedgrunnen er meir ekstremvær (særleg tørke)

30 Klimaendringane truar matsikkerheten Poverty and disadvantage have increased with recent warming(about 1 C) and are expected to increase as average global temperatures increase to 1.5 C and higher

31 Kvar (halve) grad teller! Sjølv om me ikkje klarer 31

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