SKAGEN Vekst Status Rapport - Desember 2013
Hovedtrekk desember 2013 SKAGEN Vekst endte måneden med en NAV på NOK 1.605, ned 0,6 prosent, mens fondets referanseindeks som består av OSEBX og MSCI AC World steg 0,9 prosent i samme periode. For 2013 under ett steg fondet med 25,0 prosent mot referanseindeksen 28,6 prosent. De største bidragsyterne i desember var Royal Caribbean Cruises, Hexagon Composites, Continental AG, Statoil og Wilh Wilhelmsen Hld, mens Norwegian Air Shuttle, Kongsberg Gruppen, RSA Insurance, Kia Motors og Baker Hughes var de største negative bidragsyterne. SKAGEN Vekst reduserte sine posisjoner i Baker Hughes, DNO International (ut) og Fortum. Fondet økte sin beholdning i Statoil, Air Asia and FL Smidth (ny). Basert på estimert inntjening for 2013 er fondets 35 største poster (84 prosent av totalen) verdsatt til pris/inntjening 11.3x. Til sammenligning er verdsettelsen av referanseindeksen 14.7x. Basert på forventet inntjening for 2014 er verdsettelsen for fondet 8.8x inntjeningen mot referanseindeksens 12.8x. For 2014 forventer vi at våre selskaper leverer inntjening over 20 prosent og således vil aksjeprisutviklingen være positiv også. De nåværende forventningene til økonomisk vekst vil trolig økes, det er gode nyheter for inntjeningen i syklisk industri. Men høyere vekst kan utgjøre en risiko siden obligasjonsavkastningen på lang sikt vil øke og attraktiviteten til aksjer kan falle. Et slikt scenario ligner en reprise på 1993/94, da aksjer steg 23 prosent i 1993 og steg bare minimalt i 1994 til tross for mye bedre inntjening. 1
Avkastning, desember 2013 Desember Hittil i kv. 2013 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst -0,6% 8,2% 25,0% 25,0% 3,1% 13,4% 11,6% 14,8% Referanseindeks* 0,9% 8,8% 28,6% 28,6% 9,5% 20,2% 12,7% 9,7% Meravkastning -1,5% -0,6% -3,7% -3,7% -6,3% -6,8% -1,1% 5,1% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 1 desember 1993 ** Referanseindeks før 1.1.2010 var OSEBX 2
SKAGEN Vekst nytt mandat Norge/Global Nordisk/Global Høyvannsmerke Ny referanseindeks: 50% MSCI Nordic og 50% MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic 3
Ny geografisk referanseindeks Tidligere indeks Ny indeks 4
og hva det betyr for sektoreksponeringen Tidligere indeks Ny indeks Lavere inntjeningsvolatilitet fra lavere energieksponering Other -sektoren inkluderer forbruksvarer, råvarer og nyttetjenester 5
Årlig avkastning siden start (%)* SKAGEN Vekst har gjort det bedre enn indeks* i 11 av 20 år 77 66 65 Prosent SKAGEN Vekst* (NOK) Referanseindeks (NOK) 19 7 39 32 29 32 15 12 46 48 48 38 40 32 32 32 10 11 48 15 16 29 25 1012-6 -27-2 -2-1 -17-22 -31-20 -9-44 -54 199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 20122013 * Startdato: 1 desember 1993 ** Referanseindeks før 1.1.2010 var OSEBX 6
Markeder i desember 2013 (%) Prosent Sverige Tyskland USA (Nasdaq) Russland Storbritannia Nederland India Spania USA (S&P 500) Norge (OSEBX) Finland Verdensindeksen Frankrike Japan Italia Mexico SKAGEN VEKST Sør-Afrika Singapore Vekstmarkedsindeksen Sør-Korea Hong Kong Brasil Indonesia Kina (lokal) Kina (Hong Kong) Thailand Tyrkia -17-8 -6-5 -3-4 -4-1 -2-2 -2-1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 7
Markeder i 2013 Prosent Finland USA (Nasdaq) Spania USA (S&P 500) Tyskland Japan Frankrike Sverige Nederland Verdensindeksen Storbritannia SKAGEN VEKST Norge (OSEBX) Taiwan Hong Kong Canada Sør-Korea Singapore Kina (lokal) Mexico Kina (Hong Kong) Russland India Sør-Afrika Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Indonesia Tyrkia Brasil -20-20 -13-2 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 11 16 15 22 25 24 33 34 39 38 38 46 44 42 42 49 50 8
Største bidragsytere, desember 2013 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Company NOK (m) Company NOK (m) Royal Caribbean Cruises 39 Hexagon Composites 22 Continental AG 17 Statoil 15 Wilh Wilhelmsen Hld 14 Norsk Hydro 12 Samsung Electronics 10 SAP AG 7 LG Corp 6 Avance Gas Holding 5 Norwegian Air Shuttle -61 Kongsberg Gruppen -19 RSA Insurance -18 Kia Motors -17 Baker Hughes -12 Bonheur -10 Yazicilar Holding -10 Ganger Rolf -10 Q-Free -10 Hurtigruten -10 Total verdiskapning i desember 2013 : NOK -50 million Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 9
Største bidragsytere, 4. kvartal 2013 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Company NOK (m) Company NOK (m) Royal Caribbean Cruises 118 Continental AG 101 Samsung Electronics 96 Hexagon Composites 55 Akzo Nobel 42 DNO International 42 SAP 37 REC Solar 32 Norsk Hydro 30 Kongsberg Gruppen 29 Norwegian Air Shuttle -42 RSA Insurance -32 Kia Motors -24 Bonheur -20 Ganger Rolf -12 Photocure -12 Q-Free -10 Air Asia -8 TTS Group -6 Goodtech -6 Total verdiskaping 4. kvartal 2013: NOK 687 million Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 10
Største bidragsytere i 2013 Største positive bidragsytere Største negative bidragsytere Company NOK (m) Company NOK (m) Continental AG 229 Royal Caribbean Cruises 205 Samsung Electronics 140 Danske Bank 87 Hexagon Composites 79 Norwegian Air Shuttle 75 Akzo Nobel 70 Baker Hughes 66 DNO International 59 Wilh Wilhelmsen Hld 58 Agrinos -26 Marine Accurate Well -26 EMGS -26 Air Asia -23 Eurasian Natural Resources -19 RSA Insurance -18 Q-Free -16 Gazprom -13 I M Skaugen -12 Photocure -9 Total verdiskaping i 2013: NOK 1 874 million Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 11
Største poster SKAGEN Vekst, pr slutten av desember 2013 Weight in Price P/E P/E P/E P/B Target portfolio 2013e 2014e 2015e trailing price Samsung Electronics 7,2 % 1 013 000 5,1 4,7 4,5 1,1 1 500 000 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd 7,1 % 47 19,4 14,9 12,0 1,2 62 Continental AG 5,4 % 159 14,7 12,7 11,4 3,3 200 Norsk Hydro 4,7 % 27 36,1 20,1 13,5 0,8 42 Kongsberg Gruppen 4,7 % 128 13,1 12,4 11,1 2,3 160 Teva Pharmaceutical 4,1 % 40 8,0 8,6 8,7 1,4 52 Statoil 3,7 % 147 9,8 9,5 9,2 1,4 185 Norw egian Air Shuttle 3,4 % 188 17,1 7,8 5,2 2,3 340 Danske Bank A/S 3,3 % 124 15,9 10,4 8,6 0,9 175 SAP 3,2 % 62 18,6 16,6 14,7 4,6 95 Weighted average 10 46,8 % 11,4 9,7 8,4 1,4 40% Weighted average 35 84,3 % 11,3 8,8 7,4 1,4 48% Reference index 14,7 12,8 11,5 1,8 12
Største kjøp og salg, desember 2013 Kjøp Statoil (NOK 147) Statoil er et globalt olje/gasselskap med base i Norge. Den norske stat kontrollerer 67% av selskapet. Statoil produserer 1,8m boe/dag og utvider kapasiteten til 2,5 boe/dag i 2020. Produksjonsområdene domineres av felt i Nordsjøen og skifergass i USA. Vi forventer at Statoil er mer fokusert på verdiskaping på kort/mellomlang sikt, dette innebærer lavere investeringer enn forventet, som igjen vil føre til bedre kontantstrøm. Dette er ikke lagt inn i aksjekursen. Statoil handles til mindre enn 10x inntjeningen og med 4,7% utbytteavkastning. FL Smidth (DKK 298) - ny FLS er en global leder innen teknologi og utstyr for sement- og gruveindustrien. Aksjen presterte dårlig i 2013 på grunn av lavere investeringer i gruveindustrien. Siden FLS får en stor del av inntektene sine fra servicekontrakter og produktivitetsforbedringer er inntektsstrømmen mer stabil. Legg til et kostnadskutt-program og potensiell konsolidering i industrien og selskapet blir en attraktiv investering. FLS handles til rundt 11x forventet inntjening for 2014 og med 3% utbytteavkastning. 13
Største kjøp og salg, desember 2013 Salg DNO International (NOK 24) DNO International er et Oslobasert oljeselskap og hovedfeltet er Tawke-feltet i Kurdistan. SKAGEN Vekst kjøpte seg inn i DNO i begynnelsen av 2013 på forventninger om bedre eksportbetingelser for olje ut av Kurdistan via Tyrkia, i tillegg til bedre reserve-estimater. Begge triggere slo til i 4. kvartal 2013 og aksjen steg mer enn 100% Derfor bestemte vi oss for å selge. Aksjen handles til 4x bokført verdi og ingen utbytte. Baker Hughes (USD 55) Baker Hughes er et global oljeserviceselskap som spesialiserer seg på drilleffektivitet, brønnferdigstillelse og produksjonsoptimalisering. SKAGEN Vekst kjøpte seg inn I Baker Hughes etter en rekke resultatvarsler I andre halvdel av 2012. Som en konsekvens har selskapet satt i gang flere effektiviseringsprogrammer og har hatt suksess med front view drillteknikker. Aksjen steg 45% i NOK i 2013 og dette ble brukt til å redusere vår eksponering. Baker Hughes handles til 13x forventet inntjening for 2014 og med en utbytteavkastning på 1,2%. ROE er under 10% og aksjen handles til 1,25x bokført verdi, så verdsettelsen er blitt mindre attraktiv. 14
Viktigste endringer i 2013 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Danske Bank Deoleo (ny) DNO International Eurasian Natural Res (ny) Kia Motors (ny) Q1 Aveng (ut) Altona Mining (ut) Gjensidige (ut) Sparbank Vest (ut) Subsea 7 (ut) Q2 Q3 Air Asia (ny) Continental AG Kia Motors REC OCI (ny) Royal Unibrew SAP Sevan Drilling Mahindra & Mahindra Frontline 2012 (ny) Q2 ABG Sundal Collier (ut) Cermaq (ut) Eurasian Natural Res (ut) Marine Accurate Well (ut) Kongsberg Automotive (ut) Natuzzi (ut) NHST Media Group (ut) NKT Holding (ut) Noreco (ut) Norsk Skog (ut) Q4 Sberbank pref (ny) ABB REC Solar (ny) Statoil Norsk Hydro Novo Nordisk Avance Gas (ny) FLS (ny) Q3 Q4 Transocean (ut) Talanx (ut) Stolt-Nielsen Wilh Wilhelmsen Hld Kesko (ut) Helgeland Sparebank (ut) Morpol (ut) Fortum Olav Thon Eiendom Akzo Nobel Baker Hughes DNO International (ut) 15
Sektor- og geografisk fordeling mot indeks Sektor Geografisk Energi Råvarer Kapitalvarer, service og transport Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Defensive konsumvarer Medisin Bank og finans Informasjonsteknologi Telekom Nyttetjenester 3 2 0 2 9 7 8 9 9 6 6 7 9 12 13 18 18 17 20 24 Asia ex Japan EMEA Frontier Markets Japan Kjerne EU Nord Amerika Norge Perifer EU Sør Amerika 4 3 1 0 0 0 4 6 5 7 0 1 10 14 13 26 Fond Indeks 53 50 Kontanter 0 2 Oceania 0 1 Kontanter 2 0 16
Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper på engelsk 17
Key earnings releases and corporate news, December 2013 Norwegian Air Shuttle (3.4%) Norwegian had additional operational problems with Dreamliner in December and the stock was down 18% Norwegian has expanded significantly in the past two years. It has opened several new hubs in Gatwick (London) and several airports in Spain as well as introducing long-distance routes from the Nordic region to the US (New York and Florida) and Asia (Bangkok). During 4Q 2013 the monthly updates from Norwegian showed 40% capacity and passenger growth, but the revenue per passenger showed 20% decline, implying that Norwegian is discounting the passengers buying tickets. Part of the lower revenue per passenger / kilometer is due to the introduction of intercontinental flights, but this is nevertheless a short-term point of concern for investors. Consequently, the stock price fell 18% in December and is now 40% below the June 2013 high. Investment case Norwegian is a low cost airline with 68 planes. It started out as a Norwegian domestic carrier and developed further into a Nordic operator, then a European operator and in 2013 it opened its first international routes. Dreamliner problems will dilute earnings in 2013 by NOK 4-5/share, so full-year earnings will be NOK 10-11 per share. For 2014 the Dreamliner problems will fade, average ticket prices will start to see normalisation in hubs where Norwegian has built a strong platform and the cost base is expected to be managed in the very upper decile of the airline business. Norwegian planes are comfortable, in-flight Wi-Fi is free and ticket prices affordable, so passenger attractiveness is good. Earnings per share is expected to grow to NOK 24 in 2014 and NOK 36 in 2015, so the valuation is very attractive. The key risks include price competition and fuel prices and in the shorter term also continued issues with the Boeing Dreamliner operating stability. Target price remains NOK 340 versus current NOK 190 level. 18
Key earnings releases and corporate news, December 2013 Hexagon Composites (1.1%) Hexagon has been a star performer in 2013 with almost 600% gain Hexagon has had a very good performance in 2013 driven by strong demand and the outlook for their high-pressure cylinders used for storage and tanks for natural gas. Revenues in 2013 likely grew 40% to NOK 1.5bn and EBITDA grew 160% to NOK 230m and the outlook points towards at least NOK 2.5bn revenue in 2015 and with a margin close to 20%. High pressure cylinders are experiencing almost exponential demand growth for storage and tanks for gas fuelled trucks in the US as the next generation trucks will see more and more gas fuelled trucks. In addition the filling station network will expand to support the gas trucks and the need for storage at the filling stations is growing in anticipation of the gas-fuelled truck roll-out. Hexagon also sells gas cylinders used in Weber-grills and caravans. The grill segment in particular is a solid contributor to growth. The composite reinforcement unit makes reinforcements for windmills, doors, aircraft, etc so there is a high correlation with orders. This segment does not enjoy the same exclusivity as high pressure cylinders however. Investment case Hexagon is well positioned to benefit from a shift from oil based fuels into more gas based fuels especially in the US, but the rest of the world will likely go in same direction as price and environment are in favour of gas. In US there are 122,000 gas stations, but so far only about 600 have CNG (compressed natural gas). Next generation trucks and buses will use gas as fuel, so Hexagon should do well as they sell both the tanks in the trucks as well as the storage cylinders at the gas stations. They also make storage tanks used on-site of shale gas drillers. Financial performance is good. Company could well overshoot sell side projections of revenue growth from 2012-2015 from NOK 1.0bn to NOK 2.5bn and with a 15% EBITDA margin. If revenues hit NOK 3bn and EBITDA margin 20%, then it is trading at 11x 2015 earnings. That seems a low valuation given the growth prospects and company position in industry. 19
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very good and company has historically wisely invested into new business areas solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. RCL is the second largest cruise company globally with 25 percent market share. It sailed 5m passengers in 2013. After a decade of lower returns on invested capital the cruise industry is coming to its senses and should be further supported by increased consumer demand in the coming years. Continental AG produces tires for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tires is getting stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer term Conti s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, headquartered in Oslo. Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3 percent ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people. Kongsberg Gruppen provides high-tech capital goods to the defence and maritime industries such as positions control and remote control systems. The growth in 2011-2015 is mainly driven by the maritime products unit, while the longer term growth is fuelled by components and missiles for the F-35 aircraft program. 20
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Teva is the largest generic (off patent) drug company worldwide and has more than half its revenues from patented drugs most well known is Teva s multiple sclerosis drug; Copaxone. Teva expanded considerably in the past decade and since 2012 management focus is to clean the organization and optimise drug portfolio, production units, selling channels and cut costs. Statoil is a Norwegian government controlled oil/gas company with a global reach. The main assets are based in the North Sea, however Statoil has diversified in US Shale, Tanzania Gas, Brazil Offshore, etc. Statoil is focused on increasing daily energy production, however, in 2014 it is expected to focus more on cash flows as the costs of extracting more oil/gas has been going up without a similar increase in oil-price. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic based low cost airline, which in 2012 flew 18m passengers. The fleet of airliners and route network is growing rapidly proving the concept from Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region. Also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and sub-optimal cost structure, so in 2012 a new management group started work to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. Established as a mainframe software provider in the 1970s, SAP developed into a global leader in Enterprise Resource Planning software in the 1990s and since 2012 SAP has begun moving into next generation corporate software solutions in mobility, cloud and high-speed data-analytics. Upgrades, deeper penetration with current customers as well as entry into Asian corporates and standard solutions for financial industry are the future growth drivers 21
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