Høstkonferansen Stavanger 20.09.11 «Overføring av boliglån til kredittforetak- Hvilke konsekvenser har dette, og har noen banker allerede gått for langt?» SpareBank 1 Markets - Credit Research Guttorm L Egge Nei tvert imot
Innholdsfortegnelse _ 3 Det store bildet Bruk av OmF ute og hjemme 17 Historiske nivåer Ansvarlige lån over Senior, og Senior over OmF 22 Det norske markedet Volum og utstedere 28 Utnyttelsen av OmF i dag Mange banker har mye å gå på 34 Omsetninger og kurver Oslo Børs og ABM 41 Om SpareBank 1 Markets 2
Det store bildet Bruk av OmF ute og hjemme
Hvor stor er bruken av OmF globalt? Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» Download here: http://ecbc.hypo.org/content/default.asp?pageid=501 Covered bonds are one of the largest private sector debt markets in the world At the end of 2010, the overall volume stood at EUR 2.5 trillion 2500 mrd. EUR 4 Økning på 67% på 7 år
Her er fordelingen per land og sektor Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» 72 mrd. EUR 5
Her er fordelingen per land og sektor - historisk Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» 100 32 6 Danmark på høyde med Tyskland og Spania
Fordelingen per land (benchmark size) Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» 7 Spania, Frankrike og Tyskland dominerer. Frankrike øker mest.
Hvor kommer investorene fra? Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» 8 Forholdsvis stabilt, men Norden og Asia på vei opp
Hvem er de? Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» 9 Stabilt her også banker dominerer
Hvor stor er bruken av OmF globalt? Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» Insurance companies are not the driving force behind spreads at the short to mid part of the curve. They have only bought around 3% of this year s 5Y issuance for example. However number grows to almost one third if looking at deals with a maturity of beyond 10 years Shorter deals are mostly influenced by banks and asset managers Basel III and especially the liquidity coverage ratio is pushing banks to shift their investments increasingly from senior unsecured bonds to covered bonds which can form up to 40% of their liquidity portfolio under the LCR 10 Forsikring har en relativt beskjeden andel, men er store på lange løpetider
Bruken av boliglån som sikkerhet øker mest Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» With respect to the number of covered bond programs, around 25% of all programs with benchmark bonds outstanding are backed by public sector collateral, and 75% are (primarily) backed by mortgage collateral. Looking at the absolute amount of all outstanding covered bonds, around 24% or EUR 608bn relate to public sector collateral, 72% to mortgage collateral (EUR 1,789bn) and 4% to mixed or other collateral, e.g. ships. Since 2006, the volume of covered bonds backed by mortgage collateral has been higher than the volume of public sector covered bonds. This trend has accelerated in recent years, as not only the relative share of public sector covered bonds has declined, but also the absolute amount has decreased. The main driver behind this development is the situation on the German Pfandbrief market. Following the abolishment of special guarantee schemes in Germany (Gewährträgerhaftung, Anstaltslast) for public sector banks, the volume of underlying collateral declined significantly. 11 Av et OmF univers på 2500 mrd. har 1800 mrd. sikkerhet i boliglån og 600 mrd. i off. sektor
Emisjoner siden 2007 fordelt på type Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» The charts below show that senior unsecured funding still represents more than 50% of European banks funding In the period of 2010 to H1 2011, based on Dealogic figures, covered bonds made up 38% of total issuance of European financial institutions (excluding securitization and short-term funding) compared with 51% of senior unsecured funding and 11% of sub debt and government guaranteed funding 12 Men det emitteres fortsatt store mengder senior lån (51% andel)
Mange banker har mye å gå på i bruken av OmF Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» Fitch s covered bond study of March 2011 showed that more than 50% of the covered bond issuers rated by Fitch have a funding reliance (defined as outstanding covered bonds in % of total assets) of less than 10% Less than 1 in 5 issuers has a funding reliance of more than 20% These are almost exclusively specialized mortgage banks 13 Det er ikke bare i Norge mange banker har sovet i timen
Konklusjoner fra ECBC Kilde: ECBC «European Covered Bond Fact Book 2011» We view the current anomalies in the pricing of covered bonds relative to senior unsecured bank debt as a good opportunity to switch into covered bonds The tight spread between the two asset classes means that the spread give-up for investors would be relatively small in most cases and those investors switching into covered bonds would be more than compensated by the aforementioned advantages of this asset class in terms of higher rating and additional investor protection This holds particularly true for EU bank investors, who additionally benefit from the lower risk weighing under the European 71 Capital Requirements Directive (CRD), the lower ECB repo haircuts and the prospect of covered bonds qualifying as liquid assets under the upcoming Basel liquid buffer rules Insurance companies as well would benefit from investing into covered bonds as these instruments will receive a favorable treatment under the upcoming Solvency II rules The structural subordination of senior unsecured investors as a result of increased covered bond issuance poses some problems, but the current discussion exaggerates the issue ignoring the advantages of having a stable and relatively cheap funding channel for the bank. This is beneficial for both covered bond and senior unsecured investors. 14 Fra en investors ståsted er OmF nå priset svært høyt sammenlignet med andre AAA alternativer
Pantsatt sikkerhet og Senior/OmF-forhold Norge: Overpantsettelse (27%) - OmF/Eiendeler (18%) Senior/OmF (3) 15 Norge har kommet langt i bruket av OmF sammenlignet med mange andre land
Andelen OmF i.f.t. Senior+OmF Med ca halvparten skiller Norge seg lite ut 16 Men det er likevel mer å gå på Tyskland 10 prosentpoeng foran
Historiske nivåer Ansvarlige lån over Senior, og Senior over OmF
Senior/OmF faktor i.f.t. landrisiko Norge i midten 18 Liten forskjell mellom senior og OmF i PIIGSlandene
Forholdet mellom Senior og OmF er «normalt» Men er for øyeblikket i en stigende trend 19
Spread mot swap for Senior og OmF i Norge Senior/OmF ratio mellom 1,3 og 2,6 siste to år 20 Forholdet mellom Senior og OmF ligger nå på 2,5
Spread mot swap for Ans. LT2 og Senior finans LT2/Senior ratio mellom 2 og 6,5 siste fire år 21 Forholdet mellom LT2 og Senior er nede på 2,1
Det norske markedet Volum og utstedere
OmF utgjør mer enn halvparten af finans totalt Siden 2009 har OmF økt 22% - Senior har falt 11% - OmF>Stat snart 23 The Norwegian bond & CP market by issuer sector and volume in NOK billion 2010 2010 2009 2009 No of NOK BIS Group Volume Group No of NOK No of NOK Issuers bn Weight % % Issuers bn Issuers bn 16 486.0 0% BIS weight 29.9% 17 551.7 18 535.5 29 457.1 10% - BIS weight 28.1% 100% 29 394.3 30 376.1 1 1.1 Government Government enterprises enterprises / Statsforetak / Statsforetak SF SF 0.1% 0% 1 1.1 1 2.5 29 456.1 Covered Covered bonds / Obl. bonds med / fortrinnsrett Obl. med fortrinnsrett 28.1% 100% 29 393.2 28 373.6 112 63.5 20% - BIS weight - Municipalities 3.9% 100% 830 62.3 119 51.9 13 9.3 Counties Counties / Fylker / Fylker 0.6% 15% 13 8.2 12 6.9 86 51.9 Municipalities Municipalities / Kommuner / Kommuner 3.2% 82% 89 52.4 90 43.3 5 1.3 Municipal Municipal companies companies (20%) (20%) 0.1% 2% 5 0.6 4 0.2 8 1.1 Electricity Electricity companies companies (20%) (20%) 0.1% 2% 723 1.2 13 1.5 152 341.3 20% - BIS weight - Financials 21.0% 100% 160 358.7 165 385.4 12 28.0 Mortgage Mortgage institutions institutions / Kredittforetak / Kredittforetak 1.7% 8% 12 30.4 11 35.1 29 99.4 Commercial Commercial Banks / Forretningsbanker Banks / Forretningsbanker 6.1% 29% 35 108.5 40 122.2 104 205.7 Savings Savings Banks / Sparebanker Banks / Sparebanker 12.7% 60% 106 212.5 105 220.3 6 5.2 Finance Finance companies companies / Andre finansinst. / Andre finansinst. 0.3% 2% 6 4.4 8 5.5 1 3.0 Insurance Insurance companies companies / Forsikring/ Forsikring 0.2% 1% 1 2.9 1 2.3 199 247.9 100% - BIS weight 15.3% 100% 191 237.3 193 224.9 5 9.4 Municipal Municipal companies companies 0.6% 4% 5 8.6 5 4.0 22 18.7 Real estate Real companies estate companies 1.2% 8% 19 17.2 17 16.6 32 70.9 Electricity Electricity companies companies (100%) (100%) 4.4% 29% 28 66.0 27 61.1 44 37.8 General General industry industry 2.3% 15% 42 39.8 47 42.0 72 89.8 Oil-Offshore Oil-Offshore 5.5% 36% 73 85.1 76 84.4 24 21.3 Shipping:Shipping: 1.3% 9% 24 20.6 21 16.8 58 18.7 100% - BIS weight - Subord. debt 1.2% 100% 66 17.0 64 18.0 3 0.5 Mortgage Mortgage institutions institutions / Kredittforetak / Kredittforetak 0.0% 3% 4 0.7 4 0.5 13 4.7 Commercial Commercial Banks / Forretningsbanker Banks / Forretningsbanker 0.3% 25% 13 4.7 13 4.6 36 8.2 Savings Savings Banks / Sparebanker Banks / Sparebanker 0.5% 44% 42 8.3 40 8.0 4 0.3 Finance Finance companies companies / Andre finansinst. / Andre finansinst. 0.0% 2% 5 0.4 6 1.0 2 5.0 Insurance Insurance companies companies / Forsikring/ Forsikring 0.3% 27% 2 2.9 1 3.9 67 9.5 100% - BIS weight - Capital Contrib. Securities 0.6% 100% 65 8.9 62 7.5 1 0.5 Mortgage Mortgage institutions institutions / Kredittforetak / Kredittforetak 0.0% 5% 1 0.5 1 0.1 6 1.3 Commercial Commercial Banks / Forretningsbanker Banks / Forretningsbanker 0.1% 14% 5 1.1 3 0.7 58 6.0 Savings Savings Banks / Sparebanker Banks / Sparebanker 0.4% 63% 57 5.6 57 5.1 2 1.7 Insurance Insurance companies companies / Forsikring/ Forsikring 0.1% 18% 2 1.7 1 1.7 633 1 624.1 Total all issuers 100% 1 358 1 630.3 651 1 599.3 306 826 Finance / Finans 51% 320 778 319 785 Dreiningen fra senior til OmF vil fortsette spesielt hos de små bankene
Bytteordningen Forfallsoversikt (229,51 mrd) 76 mrd. i 2011 6 mrd. i 2012 60 mrd. i 2013 og 87 mrd. i 2014 24 www.norges-bank.no/upload/bytteavtalen/figurer_bytteordning_no_en.pdf
Hvor mye kan finansieres gjennom OmF uten at ratingen for senior lån svekkes OmF et tveegget sverd? Det finnes ingen absolutt grense, knapt nok en flytende heller En stor del av likviditeten som frigjøres benyttes til plasseringer i andre OmF, statspapirer og andre sikre plasseringer Dessuten har en ny finansieringskilde en verdi i seg selv Danske kredittforetak har kunnet låne penger hele tiden under finanskrisen På den annen side reduseres andelen sikre lån til fordel for mer usikre Bankene vil derfor etter hvert ligne mer på dagens danske banker OmF Senior Fitch påpekte noen av disse forholdene under en konferanse om risiko i markedet for statsobligasjoner og OmF i Oslo 8. september 2010 På direkte spørsmål etterpå ble det antydet at så mye som 50 prosent av boliglånene muligens kan finansieres gjennom OmF før seniorgjelden blir nedgradert Noen banker har for lengst passert denne grensen, men uten notching Har Miller & Modigliani gått ut på dato? 25
Norske OmF-utstedere - Alfabetisk Høy overpantsettelse og lav LTV 26 Lav gjennomsnittlig LTV
Norske OmF-utstedere Etter størrelse Høy overpantsettelse og lav LTV 27
Utnyttelsen av OmF i dag Mange banker har mye å gå på
Norske bankers utnyttelse av OmF Varierende, men generelt lav (unntatt DnB NOR) 29 Lav utnyttelse uansett målemetode OmF i forhold til PM er kanskje mest relevant
Hvor mye kan man spare på økt andel OmF? Mye! 1,5 mrd. i lavere rentekostnader per år Senior 5y bp 145 OmF 5y bp 55 Utnyttelse % 20 30 40 50 60 70 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ytterligere overføring m rd. Besparelse per år m ill. Uavhengige -7 17 41 66 90 114-63 155 372 590 807 1025 Terra 4 19 33 48 62 77 37 168 299 431 562 693 Spb 1-27 0 28 55 83 110-247 1 249 497 745 993 Totalt -30 36 102 169 235 301-273 324 921 1518 2114 2711 30 NB! Forenklede forutsetninger. Banker med svært høy innskuddsandel vil selvfølgelig ikke spare like mye
Hvor mye kan din bank spare per år? Nødvendig overføring i mrd., og årlig spart beløp i millioner Gruppe Increased Lower Gruppe Increased Lower Nøkkeltall per 2010-q4 for Covered interest Nøkkeltall per 2010-q4 for Covered interest Konsern og Morselskap Funding cost Konsern og Morselskap Funding cost NOK bn NOK mill. Savings Banks / Sparebanker 168.6 1 517.5 DnB NOR, Verd Etne Spb DnB NOR, Verd Flekkefjord Spb 1.3 12.1 DnB NOR, Verd Haugesund Spb 1.5 13.5 DnB NOR, Verd Lillesands Spb 0.7 6.6 DnB NOR, Verd Luster Spb 0.8 6.9 DnB NOR, Verd Skudenes & Aakra Spb 1.7 15.2 Spb 1 Halden Spb (Spb 1) 1.3 11.4 Spb 1 Lom og Skjåk Spb (Spb 1) 0.8 6.8 Spb 1 Modum Spb (Spb 1) Spb 1 Rygge-Vaaler Spb (Spb 1) 2.8 24.9 Spb 1 Spb 1 Buskerud-Vestfold 4.0 35.7 Spb 1 Spb 1 Gudbrandsdal 0.8 7.2 Spb 1 Spb 1 Hallingdal Spb 1 Spb 1 Nord-Norge 7.2 65.0 Spb 1 Spb 1 NordVest 1.6 14.6 Spb 1 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 1.5 13.4 Spb 1 Spb 1 Ringerike Hadeland 2.9 25.8 Spb 1 Spb 1 SMN 6.6 59.2 Spb 1 Spb 1 SR-Bank 14.8 133.3 Spb 1 Spb 1 Søre Sunnmøre 1.4 13.0 Spb 1 Spb 1 Telemark 3.0 27.4 Spb 1 Spb Hardanger (Spb 1) 0.8 7.5 Spb 1 Spb Hedmark (Spb 1) 5.8 52.1 NOK bn NOK mill. Terra Andebu Spb 0.5 4.4 Terra Arendal og Omegns Sparekasse 0.9 7.8 Terra Askim Spb 0.6 5.5 Terra Aurland Spb 0.3 2.3 Terra Aurskog Spb 1.4 13.0 Terra Bamble og Langesund Spb 0.9 7.8 Terra Berg Spb 0.7 5.9 Terra Bien Sparebank AS 0.8 6.9 Terra Birkenes Spb 0.3 2.5 Terra Bjugn Spb 0.5 4.6 Terra Blaker Spb 0.5 4.3 Terra Bud, Fræna og Hustad Spb 0.7 5.9 Terra Bø Spb 0.6 5.1 Terra Drangedal og Tørdal Spb 0.8 7.1 Terra Eidsberg Spb 0.7 6.0 Terra Etnedal Spb 0.1 1.2 Terra Evje og Hornnes Spb 0.4 3.9 Terra Fornebu Spb 0.5 4.2 Terra Gildeskål Spb 0.2 1.4 Terra Gjerstad Spb 0.2 2.2 Terra Grong Spb 0.5 4.5 Terra Grue Spb 0.4 3.9 Terra Haltdalen Spb 0.3 3.0 Terra Harstad Spb 0.6 5.6 Terra Hegra Spb 0.3 3.1 31
Hvor mye kan din bank spare per år? Nødvendig overføring i mrd., og årlig spart beløp i millioner Gruppe Increased Lower Nøkkeltall per 2010-q4 for Covered interest Konsern og Morselskap Funding cost 32 NOK bn NOK mill. Terra Hjartdal og Gransherad Spb 0.4 3.4 Terra Hjelmeland Spb 0.4 3.4 Terra Hol Spb 0.7 6.0 Terra Holla og Lunde Spb 1.0 9.1 Terra Høland og Setskog Spb 1.1 10.0 Terra Hønefoss Spb 0.8 6.9 Terra Indre Sogn Spb 0.9 8.0 Terra Jernbanepersonalets Spb 1.0 8.8 Terra Klepp Spb 1.0 9.4 Terra Klæbu Spb 0.4 3.7 Terra Kragerø Spb 0.5 4.9 Terra Kvinesdal Spb 0.5 4.2 Terra Larvikbanken-Brunlanes Spb 0.8 7.1 Terra Lillestrøm Spb 0.6 5.3 Terra Marker Spb 0.8 6.8 Terra Meldal Spb 0.6 5.7 Terra Melhus Spb 0.7 6.6 Terra Nes Prestegjelds Spb 1.0 8.6 Terra Nesset Spb 0.3 3.1 Terra Odal Spb 1.2 10.6 Terra Ofoten Spb 0.3 3.1 Terra Opdals Spb 0.6 5.4 Terra Orkdal Spb 0.8 7.4 Terra Rindal Spb 0.4 3.5 Bankene med grønn bakgrunnsfarge har ikke obligasjonslån Gruppe Increased Lower Nøkkeltall per 2010-q4 for Covered interest Konsern og Morselskap Funding cost NOK bn NOK mill. Terra Rørosbanken Røros Spb 0.6 5.2 Terra Selbu Spb 0.5 4.9 Terra Seljord Spb 0.6 5.3 Terra, Verd Søgne og Greipstad Spb 1.0 8.6 Terra Soknedal Spb 0.4 3.4 Terra Spb Hemne 0.5 4.2 Terra Spb Narvik 1.1 9.6 Terra Spydeberg Spb 0.4 3.7 Terra Stadsbygd Spb 0.6 5.1 Terra Strømmen Spb 0.6 5.0 Terra Sunndal Spb 0.6 5.7 Terra Surnadal Spb 0.9 8.0 Terra Time Spb 1.2 11.1 Terra Tinn Spb 0.6 5.3 Terra Tolga-Os Spb 0.7 5.9 Terra Totens Spb 3.4 30.6 Terra Trøgstad Spb 0.4 3.8 Terra Tysnes Spb 0.3 3.1 Terra Valle Spb 0.2 2.2 Terra Vang Spb 0.1 1.1 Terra Vegårshei Spb 0.2 2.1 Terra Vestre Slidre Spb 0.2 1.8 Terra Vik Spb 0.3 2.4 Terra Ørland Spb 0.6 5.5 Terra Ørskog Spb 0.6 5.8
Hvor mye kan din bank spare per år? Nødvendig overføring i mrd., og årlig spart beløp i millioner Gruppe Increased Lower Nøkkeltall per 2010-q4 for Covered interest Konsern og Morselskap Funding cost 33 NOK bn NOK mill. Terra Øystre Slidre Spb 0.2 1.8 Terra Åfjord Spb 0.4 3.6 Terra Aasen Spb 0.3 2.5 Uavhengig Cultura Spb 0.1 0.5 Uavhengig Fana Spb 2.8 24.8 Uavhengig Helgeland Spb 2.4 21.3 Uavhengig Sandnes Spb 5.1 45.9 Uavhengig, Verd Spareskillingsbanken 2.0 18.3 Uavhengig Spb Møre 7.7 69.4 Uavhengig Spb Pluss 1.6 14.6 Uavhengig Spb Sogn og Fjordane 6.5 58.2 Uavhengig Spb Sør 4.7 42.3 Uavhengig Spb Vest 21.5 193.8 Uavhengig Spb Øst 4.3 38.5 Uavhengig Voss Spb 0.9 7.8 B a n k f ø r S i n g e l B a n k n å U t e n O M F Menn / bankers tre livsfaser G i f t S k i l t
Omsetninger og kurver Oslo Børs & ABM
Historical spread levels Covered bonds (AAA) 35
Actual trades Aug Covered bonds Duration scale 36
Historical spread levels Financials (AA-/A) 37
Actual trades Aug Financials About 10 bp higher for FRN @3y (Avg.: 3y FRN +99, 3y Fixed +77) 38
FRN margin on new financial bonds Non matured issues only 39
Estimated NOK spread curves Financials Sep 16 Grouped by size and rating 40
Om SpareBank 1 Markets
Introduction to SpareBank 1 Markets Established in October 2008 by team of experienced professionals and the SpareBank 1 Gruppen ( SB1 ) Owned 2,8% by the employees and 97,2 % by SB1 Full scale investment bank with a total of close to 100 employees distributed on five key business areas in addition to support staff: Corporate Finance Equity Sales and Trading Fixed Income / FX Research Asset Management / Bank Distribution Offices and locations: Oslo Trondheim (through SpareBank 1 SMN Markets) Stavanger (through SpareBank 1 SR Markets) Tromsø (through SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Securities) London (through UB Securities London LLP) 42
Organization CEO Martin Hagen Business support Håvard Vikse Strategy and Business Development Olav Skjervheim Fixed Income / FX Kristian Semmen Corporate Finance Stein Husby Equity Research Henrik With Head of Equity Mark Carey Bank Distribution Nils Tore Eliassen 43
A full service investment bank, part of the second largest banking group in Norway Fixed income Corporate finance Equity sales and trading Asset Management Bank distribution Research 11 brokers and analysts Research coverage on banks, utilities, oil and oil service Top 8 arranger of bonds issues on the OSE 2010 15 professionals, with financial and industrial experience Key focus is on traditional Norwegian sectors represented on the OSE Dedicated M&A, IPO and Funding specialists 16 brokers and 3 traders 3.18% market share on OSE in 2010 4 employees, of which 2 asset managers and 1 broker Develops financial products with focus on optimal absolute returns 12 analysts cover approx. 100 companies and increasing Covers all major sectors on the OSE 2 analysts cover general equity strategy and macroeconomic trends Long term client relationship commitment Total assets of more than NOK 600 billion 17 banks in the alliance, 3 of which are among Norway s 10 largest banks on a standalone basis Provides commercial bank loans to regional and national companies ODIN Asset Management approx. NOK 25 billion AUM in 11 funds globally 7 other bank owned regional asset managers Nationwide distribution network 17 regional banks 1 million customers, 700,000 internet banking customers Strong internet equity trading platform 3 investment banks with local presence About 40 corporate finance and capital markets professionals in the alliance Strong industrial and financial knowledge and networks Commercial banking Asset management Retail and distribution Regional markets units1 Markets 44
Corporate Finance The corporate finance team at SpareBank 1 Markets has significant experience from financial advisory and strategic consulting, industry, asset management and regulatory functions The team members have by advisory or managerial capacities completed a wide range of M&A, IPO, ECM and private financing transactions 15 front-office professionals, situated in Oslo. About 40 corporate finance professionals within the extended SpareBank 1 Markets network enables superior presence and longstanding relationships Stein Husby Head of Corporate Finance 10 years investment banking and consulting experience, previously from First Securities and McKinsey Mergers and acquisitions Acquisitions and buyouts Structured sales Disposals and divestitures Mergers Corporate advisory and defense strategies Restructurings Fairness opinions Corporate advisory services Equity capital markets Initial public offerings and listings Secondary offerings Private placements Equity and hybrid instruments Share buybacks Focus sectors Banks and financials E&P of natural resources Oil service Real estate Seafood Shipping Technology & telecom Funding Equity High yield bonds Convertible bonds Bank project financing Bank acquisition financing Private equity and venture capital 45
Research Credible and experienced research team covering the OSE with focus on a mix of blue chip and under-analysed companies 12 analysts covering 100 companies within all major sectors and expanding rapidly 2 analysts cover general equity strategy and macro-economic trends Henrik With Head of Research 11 years of experience from DnB Nor Markets and Alfred Berg ABN Amro within Equity Research Shipping and Oil Services Covering all major sectors, including: Banks and financials Consumer Industrials Life sciences Media Mining Oil & gas E&P Oil services (all major sub-sectors) Seafood Shipping Technology Telecom 46
Equity sales & FI/FX SpareBank 1 Markets has more than 29 dedicated equity, fixed income and FX brokers About 40 professionals nationwide within the alliance Institutional clients 4 independent investment banks with local presence in Oslo, Stavanger, Trondheim, Tromsø and our London office Retail market 17 independent commercial and savings banks 700.000 internet banking customers Internet trading platform with Direct Market Access capabilities Mark Carey Head of Equity 25 years of experience from Equity Sales. Prior experience from S.G.Warburg, Sirius Securities, DnB Nor Markets, Handelsbanken, ABN AMRO Alfred Berg og Kaupthing. Kristian Semmen Head of FI / FX Top 12 equity sales marketshare on the OSE in 2010 1 Top 8 manager of bonds issues in 2010 22 years of DCM and ECM experience Prior experience from Storebrand Asset Management, Norges Bank, First Securities and Orkla Finans. Strong focus on financials, oil and offshore services Note 1: Only Scandinavian investment banks included (Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Netfonds 47 and Nordnet are excluded) Source: Oslo Stock Exchange, Stamdata
Asset Management / Bank distribution Asset Management / Bank distribution consists of 5 experienced professionals; One Head, two senior managers and 2 brokers Asset Management offer: Private Banking concept The concept is a cooperation between some of the banks within the SpareBank 1- alliance and SpareBank 1 Markets Our Private Banking concept is based on solid investment advice and management along with a market view, the best banking services and presented within an overall solution to our customers Discretionary Asset Management: SpareBank 1 Markets Top 5 stock, 5 of our most recommended Norwegian stocks Tailor made solutions Argo ProAktiv* A combination fund with a dynamic rebalancing based on SpareBank 1 Markets market view Stock trading through internet solutions and advisor based stock trading through the SpareBank 1-alliance 48 * To be renamed during autumn 2011
SpareBank 1 Markets Disclosures IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES SpareBank 1 Markets operates a system of Chinese Walls in order to control the flow of information within the firm; the Research Department is part of this system. The Research Analysts of SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary, and are members of the bonus pool. Analysts do not receive remuneration linked to the performance of their recommendations. Furthermore their remuneration is not linked to specific Investment Banking projects. Generally, investments in financial instruments involve risks. For specific risks related to our various recommendations, please see the latest relevant reports. The target prices on companies in the SpareBank 1 Markets Research universe reflect the subjective view of the analyst about the absolute price that shares should trade at, within our twelve-month recommendation horizon. The target price is based on an absolute valuation approach, which is detailed in our research reports. The target price can differ from the absolute valuation, in accordance with the analyst's subjective view on the trading or cyclical patterns for a particular stock, or a possible discount/premium to reflect factors such as market capitalization, ownership structure and/or changes in the same, and company-specific issues. This report or summary has been prepared by SpareBank 1 Markets from information obtained from different sources not all of which are controlled by SpareBank 1 Markets. Such information is believed to be reliable, and although it has not been independently verified SpareBank 1 Markets has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information is true and not misleading. Notwithstanding such reasonable efforts, SpareBank 1 Markets can not guarantee that the information contained in this report or summary is accurate or complete, and SpareBank 1 Markets assumes no obligation for, and makes no representations with respect to, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report or summary. SpareBank 1 Markets assumes no obligation to update the information contained in this report or summary to the extent that it is subsequently determined to be false or inaccurate. The analyst(s) who prepared this report or summary certify that: (1) the views expressed accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report or summary. This report or summary is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This report or summary is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any person who may receive this report or summary. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report or summary and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Performance in the past is not a guide to future performance. SpareBank 1 Markets accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication or its contents. Investors in the US should be aware that investing in non-us securities involves certain risks. The securities of non-us issuers may not be registered with, or subject to, the current informational reporting and audit standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These materials may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. We use only sources we find reliable and accurate, unless otherwise stated in the relevant reports. SpareBank 1 Markets or an affiliate may from time to time perform investment banking or other services (including acting as advisor, manager or lender) for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, companies mentioned in this publication for investment banking services in the next three months. SpareBank 1 Markets AS Olav Vs gate 5 0161 Oslo + 47 24 14 74 00 www.sb1markets.no 49
Contact details Debt capital markets Henrik Danielsen High yield henrik.danielsen@sb1markets.no 2414 7442 / 9165 1155 Kristian Semmen Christian K. Gløersen Guttorm L Egge Head of DCM High yield Head of credit research kristian.semmen@sb1markets.no christian.gloersen@sb1markets.no guttorm.egge@sb1markets.no 2414 7488 / 9573 0510 2414 7438 / xxxx xxxx 2414 7451 / 4156 7173 Stein-Are Jensen Thomas Hansteen Patrik Hofseth Head of Fixed income sales Head of High yield High yield research stein-are.jensen@sb1markets.no thomas.hansteen@sb1markets.no patrik.hofseth@sb1markets.no 2414 7457 / 9178 6841 2414 xxxx / xxxx xxxx 2414 7448 / 9951 1384 Frank Sannes Bruno Jeannin Jørgen Haug Fixed income sales High yield High yield research frank.sannes@sb1markets.no bruno.jeannin@sb1markets.no jorgen.haug@sb1markets.no 2414 7487 / 9220 8763 2414 7485 / 9484 1414 2414 7439 / xxxx xxxx Arne Olav Sunde William Selmer Sandum Ariel Fischer Fixed income sales High yield Quantitative research arne.sunde@sb1markets.no william.sandum@sb1markets.no ariel.fischer@sb1markets.no 2414 7458 / 9249 7581 2414 7435 / xxxx xxxx 2414 7486 / 9958 8547 Eyvind Width Alexander Lunde Shakeb Syed Fixed income sales Trading Macroeconomic research eyvind.width@sb1markets.no alexander.lunde@sb1markets.no shakeb.syed@sb1markets.no 2414 7462 / 9774 8855 2414 7436 / 9266 1193 2414 7431 / 4741 4740 50 Lars Aadnesen Tor Stenumgård ChristianBjerknes Fixed income sales Trading Macroeconomic research lars.aadnesen@sb1markets.no tor.stenumgaard@sb1markets.no christian.bjerknes@sb1markets.no 2414 7437 / 9341 8058 2414 7455 / 9772 9878 2414 7493 / 9704 0963
Thank you Guttorm L Egge Head of Credit Research Olav V s gt. 5 P.O. Box 1398 Vika NO-0114 Oslo, Norway +47 2414 7451 Phone +47 2414 7401 Fax +47 4156 7173 Cellular guttorm.egge@sb1markets.no