DnB NOR Markets Nøkkeltall Kristian Tunaal 25 oktober 2011
Fundamentalanalyse "In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, its a weighting machine" Benjamin Graham 2
Nøkkeltall Makro Mikro (selskapstall) Makro er stort! Skal fange opp alle økonomiske transaksjoner! Etterslep Revideringer => fokuser på foroverseende indikatorer Selskapstall Lages av selskapene selv Straffbart å mislede Men gjenstand for skjønn. 3
Makroindikatorer Foroverseende indikatorer: Stemningsindikatorer fra næringslivet ISM IFO PMI 4
Fundamentalanalyse Lønnsomhet Soliditet Prising Vekst Risiko GI EN ANBEFALING 5
Selskapsindikatorer Med eller uten gjeld Uten gjeld egenkapital Med gjeld selskapsverdi (enterprise value) 6
Regnskap - oppsett Resultatregnskap Balanse Kontantstrøm Inntekter - driftskostnader = driftsresultat Eiendeler Gjeld + Egenkapital Resultatregnskap +- andre effekter - finanskostnader - andre kostnader = resultat Lønnsomhet Soliditet Lønnsomhet og soliditet 7
Lønnsomhet og soliditet: Kontantstrøm Korrektiv til Resultatregnskap og Balanse Regnskapsregler er basert på skjønn innen visse rammer => betydelig spillerom for ledelsen Aktivering vs. utgiftsføring av utgifter? Når skal salg inntektsføres? Når må verdien av eiendeler nedskrives? Viktige sjekkpunkter på kontantstrøm: Kontantstrøm fra drift Utvikling i rentebærende gjeld 8
Fundamentalanalyse - Lønnsomhet Lønnsomhet Kapitalavkastning Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) Return on Equity (ROE) NB: Skal være høyere enn kapitalavkastningskrave t! Fortjeneste Earnings per share (EPS) Driftsresultat (EBIT) Driftsmargin NB: Se på veksten! 9
Soliditet Soliditet Balansekrav Egenkapitalandel Likviditetsgrad Forfall på gjeld Gjeldsbetjeningsevne EBITDA/Rentekostnad Merk: må være høy nok til også å finansiere investeringer Eiendelers omsettbarhet Kan selskapet reise midler ved å selge eiendeler? 10
Prising Multipler P/E Mest vanlig Funker best i normalsituasjoner EV/EBIT Justerer for gjeld Indikerer totallønnsomheten for all kapital, ikke bare egenkapital EV/EBITDA Samme som EV/EBIT, men ekskluderer avskrivninger Fordel hvis avskrivningsregler varierer mellom selskaper P/B Egner seg i spesielle situasjoner Kun relevant i den grad fremtidig inntjening kan forsvare bokførte verdier (ref. Norske Skog) P/Sales Forbausende god track record Egnet for selskaper med forbedringspotensiale 11
Prising Kontantstrøm Relativ prising Sum-of-the-parts Fordeler Teoretisk korrekt Viser investorers valgmuligheter Forutsetter sektor ev. int. sammenlikning Viser selskapets muligheter Relevant for konglomerater Ulemper Baserer seg på lang horisont => vanskelig å forutsi Forutsetter at investorer har valgmuligheter Grunn til rabatt? Er det aktuelt for selskapet? (Orkla) Net Asset Value Hva kan selskapets eiendeler selger for? Shipping og eiendom Forutsetter lett omsettelige aktiva Er salg av eiendeler aktuelt? 12
Risiko Operasjonell Finansiell Risiko for at noe går galt under vanlig drift Soliditet Likviditet Faktorer å se etter: Fastpriskontrakter Kompliserte store prosjekter Lite rutinepreget drift 13
Selskapsanalyse Kilder: Regnskaper NB: de dårlige nyhetene står neppe på forsiden. Selskapet Konkurrenter Kunder NB: alle har sin agenda... Generell lærdom "Stol aldri på et regnskap" Gode regnskaper gjerne bedre enn de ser ut...og motsatt Gjeld / pensjonsforpliktelser Kontantstrøm lyver ikke! Viktige indikatorer Kontantstrøm fra drift Utvikling i gjeld 14
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