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.;;I4D< LISTE OVER TABELLER... 5 LISTE OVER FIGURER...5 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SUMMARY... 14 1. INNLEDNING... 22 2. INSTITUSJONER OG KLIMATILPASNING... 27 2.1 KLIMA, INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET OG OM DET Å BINDE SAMMEN DET GLOBALE OG DET LOKALE... 27 2.2 LOKALE INSTITUSJONELLE SYSTEMER... 32 2.3 LOKAL MILJØVERNFORVALTNING SOM NØKKELINSTITUSJON... 34 3. KLIMAMODELLER OG USIKKERHET... 39 3.1 GLOBALE KLIMAMODELLER... 39 3.2 REGCLIM SCENARIEUTVIKLING FOR NORDEN... 40 3.3 MULIGHETER FOR LOKAL NEDSKALERING... 43 4. SKISSE TIL ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING... 50 4.1 MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER... 50 4.2 NORSKE FORSØK MED LOKALE MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER... 55 4.3 FORSØK PÅ Å UTVIKLE LOKALE INDIKATORER PÅ KLIMAOMRÅDET... 59 4.4 OPPBYGGING AV ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING... 66 5. GJENNOMGANG AV KONKRETE INDIKATORER... 71 5.1 NATURLIG FYSISK SÅRBARHET... 71 5.2 NATURLIG BIOLOGISK SÅRBARHET... 83 5.3 SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAPOLITIKK... 90 5.4 SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAENDRINGER... 94 5.5 INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET... 102 6. DRØFTING AV FORUTSETNINGER FOR BRUK AV DET FORESLÅTTE INDIKATORSYSTEMET... 107 6.1 EN TODELT INDIKATORMODELL... 107 6.2 PÅ TVERS OG PÅ LANGS OM KOBLINGEN MELLOM NASJONALE OG LOKALE SÅRBARHETSVURDERINGER... 113 6.3 SAMSPILL- OG SUMEFFEKTER... 115 6.4 LOKAL KLIMAPOLITIKK SOM FØRE-VAR POLITIKK... 117 6.5 OM BRUK AV INDIKATORMODELLEN I LOKALT KLIMAARBEID... 120 REFERANSER... 123 4

LISTE OVER TABELLER Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå... 49 Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer... 54 Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003)... 55 Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter... 59 Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003)... 64 Tabell 6: Eksempel på andel dyrka mark etter erosjonsrisikoklasser på kommunenivå (Nannestad kommune)... 79 Tabell 7: Forholdet mellom fysiske prosesser og klimapådriv forslag til indikatorer... 81 Tabell 8: Indikatorer for overvåking av det biologiske mangfoldet (Direktoratet for naturforvaltning)... 85 Tabell 9 En rangering av ulike sektorers økonomiske bæreevne til å tåle klimaavgifter og/eller gjennomføre egne klimatilta ( lavest indeks indikerer mest sårbare næringer)... 91 Tabell 10 Andel sysselsatte innen ulike næringer, eksempel for Sogndal (2001)... 92 Tabell 11 Utslipp av karbondioksid fra transport etter utført transportarbeid (Holtskog og Rypdal 1997)... 93 Tabell 12 Utslipp av klimagasser fra transport per person for Norge (1999) og Sogndal (2000), tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter per person og år... 93 Tabell 13 Næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer... 95 Tabell 14 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer.97 Tabell 15 Mulige utslag av klimaendringer med relevans for transportsektoren (Fjeld mfl 2002) 98 Tabell 16 Oppsummering av konsekvensvurdering for transportformer av mulige klimaendringer. Høyere tall indikerer større negativ konsekvens (etter Fjeld mfl 2002)... 99 Tabell 17 Eksempel på sårbarhetsindikatorer for ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg... 100 Tabell 18 Bygningstyper i faresonen ved store snølaster (Lisøe mfl 2000)... 101 Tabell 19 Forslag til indikatorer for lokal institusjonell sårbarhet med relevans for arbeidet med klimatilpasning... 104 Tabell 20 Eksempel på bruk av indikatorer for institusjonell sårbarhet... 106 Tabell 21 Risikomatrise for å sortere ut klimamessige høyrisiko kommuner... 109 Tabell 22 Skille mellom overnfra-og-ned indikatorer ( regionale indikatorer ) og nednefra-ogopp indikatorer ( lokale indikatorer )... 109 Tabell 23 Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for de foreslåtte sårbarhetsindikatorene (jf foregående tabell) 113 Tabell 24 Samfunnsøkonomisk sårbarhet i forhold til klima... 116 LISTE OVER FIGURER Figur 1 Prinsippmodell for lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer... 25 Figur 2 Oppløsningsgraden i de globale klimamodellene... 40 Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km 2... 42 Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003)... 42 Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden 2030-2049 sammenliknet med perioden 1980-1999 (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003)... 46 Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden 2030-2049 sammenliknet med perioden 1980-1999 (Roald mfl. 2002).... 46 Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002).... 47 Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994)... 51 Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995)... 53 Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County... 61 Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred... 62 5

Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid... 63 Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager )... 64 Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme... 65 Figur 15 Sammenhenger mellom klima og samfunn som grunnlag for utforming av en lokal klimatilpassings indikatormodell... 67 Figur 16:*A-4''<)22)'5)*("5)<<*+"-*.'.<6#)*./*<"&.<*#7-C.-B),*$*),*)'5-),*&<$(.... 71 Figur 17: Elvestrekk klassifisert som flomutsatte (strekninger for flomsonekartlegging)... 73 Figur 18: Oversikt over kartlagte kvikkleireområder... 76 Figur 19: Kartlagt skredfare på landsbasis... 78 Figur 20: Eksempel på kartblad over kartlagt erosjonsfare ved høstpløying... 79 Figur 21: Eksempel på 10 års flomsonekart for Elverum nord... 82 Figur 22: Internettbasert kartverktøy for skredfare... 83 Figur 23 Endringer i vekstsesongens lengde i løpet av perioden 1982 til 1999 (Høgda mfl 2001) 86 Figur 24: Endring i forekomst av moser mellom to registreringsrunder med 5-års mellomrom på 1990-tallet (Økland mfl 2001)... 87 Figur 25 Eksempel på lokalt biomangfoldskart... 90 Figur 26 Sammenhengen mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp... 108 Figur 27 Vurdering av usikkerhet og forskjeller i grunnlag for begrunnelse av utslippsreduserende tiltak og klimatilpasning... 117 6

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93/+:0=/0^36:3/5/-8/<83+/0-1+/8:0/0-:0-_:/+,23:680:4219,1^+T:_/8-+714 781</8_8-9/0391,38:019/.3/4-2:02167=2/+.-+7140=3010/8568+32/<-8-0I412 B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3:(a323^36:3/8-9-03,+69<3214_"-)*$'5$M.,"-#(F=3 :3_1+,/??21/_=3+0/-8:0=36:314/+69<3214:6??8393+0/2I<"M.<-+,-_/012: </:3,1+0=3_1883_0-1+1481_/8,/0/( F=323/23/+69<321423/:1+:412/,6/8/??21/_=/:1608-+3,/<153(E4-2:0?238-9-+/2I2/+.-+71496+-_-?/8-0-3:</:3,1+81_/8568+32/<-8-0I_/+<36:3,-+ 0=233_1+03k0:(*+/'.,$"'.<_1+03k0:6_=/2/+.-+7_/+<36:3,01,-:_6::0=3 /_06/8+33,412_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+93/:623:M<3_/6:3-0:=1^:81_/8]3k02393:] 0=/0/231403+_/91648/73,-+73+32/8+/0-1+/812237-1+/8/::3::93+0:(c1231532M :6_=/2/+.-+7_/+?215-,3/</:-:4120=3.<<"M.,$"'14:0/0323:162_3:01_8-9/03 /,/?0/0-1+93/:623:@*F=-2,8IM0=-:.-+,1401?T,1^+2/+.-+7_/+<36:3,*01* #,$(4<.,)*<"M.<*$',)-)#,-+2/-:-+7l63:0-1+:/<160_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+M/+,?1-+001 0=3_1++3_0-1+<30^33+568+32/<-8-0I^-0=23:?3_001_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,_8-9/03 93/:623:( G=-830=301?T,1^+/??21/_=9/I=/53/+-+:02693+0/846+_0-1+^-0=237/2,01 0=3-9?8393+0/0-1+14+/0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:M:6_=/+/??21/_==/:1<5-16: 8-9-0/0-1+:-+/<"M.<?18-0-_/8_1+03k0(*+0=3:3_/:3:M0=323-:/+33,412-+,-_/012: 0=/0/239123:3+:-0-53010=381_/8:-06/0-1+/+,/23/8:1_/?/<8314237-:032-+7 :9/883281_/8_=/+73:15320-93(F=381_/8-+,-_/012:^-88<3/_19<-+/0-1+14 0=2330I?3:14-+,-_/012:' - ]+3^]l6/+0-4-3,-+,-_/012:</:3,1+23/881_/8,/0/ - 81_/8/,/?0/0-1+:143k-:0-+7_123-+,-_/012:-+/ 12,/+_3^-0=S6,7393+0 129123?23_-:3:_-3+0-4-_/::3::93+0: - 91233k03+:-5381_/8/::3::93+0:01-,3+0-4I_1+_2303568+32/<83/23/:12?=I:-_/81<S3_0:M1403+23:680-+7-+81_/8568+32/<-8-0I9/?: b10019t6?/??21/_=3:/230=6:01/:9/88323k03+0/:02/-7=0412^/2,-+,-_/012 8/I160M-+0=3:3+:30=/0-0-:9123/9/0032143:0/<8-:=-+70=393:41281_/8 -+53:0-7/0-1+:0=/+01?23:3+0/_19?83038-:014l6/+0-4-/<83-+,-_/012:(b10019T6? /??21/_=3:/23-+03+,3,4126:3-+0=3/::693,]=-7=2-:.]96+-_-?/8-0-3: -,3+0-4-3,-+0=3-+-0-/801?T,1^+/+/8I:-:M/+,/23/,,-0-1+/88I-+03+,3,01 :023+70=3+0=3,3_-:-1+</:3-+81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7?21_3::3:( Vulnerability matrix F=30^1/??21/_=3:_/+<3_1++3_03,0=2167=/:1T_/883,/4<')-.C$<$,6*(.,-$R( N120=-:?62?1:3^34-2:06:3/:9/8832:383_0-1+14-+,-_/012:f0=3:1T_/883,01?T,1^+,32-53,-+,-_/012:f012/+.96+-_-?/8-0-3:/ 12,-+701/::693,2-:.14 3k03+:-53')2.,$/)_1+:3l63+_3:14_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,$12_8-9/0393/:623:( E81+71+3/k-:^3=/53?8/_3,-+,-_/012:14?21<839_/6:3:J-(3(+/062/8/+, :1_-/8568+32/<-8-0ILM^=-830=310=32/k-::=1^:-+,-_/012:14?21<839:1860-1+ J-(3(-+:0-060-1+/8568+32/<-8-0IL(F=3=-7=3:02-:./2-:3:42190=3_19<-+/0-1+14 81^-+:0-060-1+/8_/?/_-0IJ12=-7=-+:0-060-1+/8568+32/<-8-0IL/+,/_19<-+/0-1+14 =-7=+/062/8/+,:1_-1T3_1+19-_568+32/<-8-0IJ^-0=237/2,01<10=_8-9/03 _=/+73:/+,_8-9/0393/:623:L( 15

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T *+42/:026_0623' 02/+:?120/0-1+ T *+42/:026_0623'?-?38-+3: /+,9/-+::I:039 0=33443_0:14_8-9/03 _=/+73: T P37-1+/8568+32/<-8-0I /::3::93+0412 02/+:?120/0-1+ -+42/:026_0623_/22-3,160 -+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3 B/0-1+/802/+:?120/0-1+?8/+ T H3+70=14,2/-+/73?-?3?32-+=/<-0/+0 T *+42/:026_0623'<6-8,-+7: T D=/+73:-+?23_-?-0/0-1+ -+0=3412914:+1^?'#,$,4,$"'.</4<')-.C$<$,6 T O_1+19-_23:162_3: T F/k2353+63:?32 -+=/<-0/+0 T K1?68/0-1+?217+1:3: T a69/+23:162_3: T K32:1++3823:162_3:/: 96+-_-?/8/,9-+-:02/012 4120=3?2103_0-1+140=3 3+5-21+93+0 T K21/_0-53/<-8-0I T @/8/2I3k?3+,-0623:412 0=346+_0-1+]?=I:-_/8?8/++-+7M?2103_0-1+14 _68062/8=32-0/73M+/0623 /+,81_/83+5-21+93+0] T P3/_0-53/<-8-0I T c/+t8/<162ti3/2:4120=3 46+_0-1+]?2353+0-1+14 4-23:/+,10=32/ -,3+0:] T *9?8393+0/0-1+_/?/_-0I T B301?32/0-1+/8 3k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k39?0-1+ T c6+-_-?/8_1+0218^-0= 23:?1+:-<83_1+:026_012: -+<6-8,-+7_/:3:013+:623 _19?8-/+_3^-0= 3:0/<8-:=3,_1+0218?8/+: T @I:039/0-_ -9?8393+0/0-1+14 3+5-21+93+0/8 _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3:-+ 81_/8/,9-+-:02/0-1+ T K21?120-1+14/??8-_/0-1+: 237/2,-+7/_0-1+:-+2-:. /23/:0=/0^32372/+03, 3k39?0-1+ 1 Regulated agriculture, nature and outdoor recreation-areas in the municipal plan. 17

F=30/<83/<153_1+0/-+:-+,-_/012:0=/04120=39/-+?/20,3:_2-<3-)<.,$/) 568+32/<-8-0I(F=3?1-+0-:01=-7=8-7=0<"M.<5/2-/0-1+:_19?/23,01,B)*'.,$"'.<*./)-.2)M3(7(-+0=3?21?120-1+14]_8-9/03:3+:-0-53]<6:-+3::3:M"(=.-)5*,"0=3 +/0-1+/8/532/73(F=6:412-+:0/+_3?23,19-+/+08I-+,6:02-/8_1996+-0-3:^=323 0=3-+,6:02I,-:_=/273:?/20-_68/28I8/273/916+0:14_8-9/037/:3:^-88393273/: 238/0-538I9123568+32/<830=/+0=3+/0-1+/8/532/73(Q+8I-+:?3_-/8_/:3:^-88-0 <3/9/003214.C#"<4,)568+32/<-8-0IM?2-9/2-8I237/2,-+7/::3::93+0:14+/062/8 568+32/<-8-0If412-+:0/+_3568+32/<-8-0I018/+,:8-,3:124811,M^=323-09/I<3?1::-<8301/??8I:193/<:18603568+32/<-8-0I_2-032-/( Vulnerability assessments bi/??8i-+70=3_123-+,-_/012:^3_/+,35381?,-44323+0](.=#*"+*1"-o.6]0=/0 3+/<836:01-,3+0-4I91231283::568+32/<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:1+/+/0-1+/883538(bI /??8I-+781_/8-+,-_/012:/+,9/.-+781_/8/,S6:093+0:/+,/::3::93+0:-+0=3 91:0568+32/<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:-,3+0-4-3,M^3_/+,35381?<"M.<2-:.9/?:/+, 9123,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:(F=3:3/23-+03+,3,01?215-,3/</:-:412,-44323+0.-+,:1481_/8,3_-:-1+:( E:/:0/20-+7?1-+0M^3_/+-,3+0-4I0^10I?3:14/+/8I:3:^-0=/</:-:-+162 -+,-_/01291,38' - 5320-_/8M-(3(^-0=-+1+3:3_012J412-+:0/+_3/72-_680623L - =12-m1+0/8M-(3(412/88:3_012:/+,-::63: F=34-2:0/??21/_=-:<I,34-+-0-1+0=383/:0_19?23=3+:-53M^=-830=38/00323+0/-8: /_19?8303/::3::93+0/_21::/88:3_012:M-(3(/+/::3::93+014010/881_/8 568+32/<-8-0I(F=-:8/00320I?314/+/8I:-:^-88+3_3::/2-8I23l6-23/_2-0-_/8 /::3::93+0143(7(:69T/+,:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+,-44323+0:3_012/8 568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:( Uncertainty F=3?239-:3412/??8I-+716291,38-:0=/0-0-:?1::-<83011?32/0-1+/8-m30=3 237-1+/8-+,-_/012:(F=3237-1+/8-+,-_/012:41290=3</:-:412,3_-,-+7^=30=3212 +10-0-:6:346801_/22I1609123,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:81_/88I-+ 12,3201?21,6_381_/8-+,-_/012:(G-0=0=3.+1^83,73/5/-8/<8301,/I-0-:+10?1::-<8301_/22I160/_19?8303]=12-m1+0/8]/+/8I:-:(*0-:/8:16+_320/-+=1^4/2-0-:?1::-<8301730-+?2/_0-_3^-0=/]=12-m1+0/8]_21:::3_0-1+/8/+/8I:-:( F=323-:_1+:-,32/<836+_320/-+0I-+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3?21?1:3,-+,-_/012 :I:039(N-2:014/88M0=323-:0=3</:-_-+:3_62-0I^-0=237/2,010=3-::6314^=30=32 12+10_8-9/03_=/+73:/23/_06/88I0/.-+7?8/_3d/+,:3_1+,8IM=1^3k03+:-530=-: _=/+73:^-88<3(F=3+_193:0=3l63:0-1+140=39/-+/:?3_0:140=373172/?=-_/8 5$#,-$C4,$"'14_8-9/03_=/+73:(c1231532M-0-:_83/20=/0412:193140=3:3-::63: ^38/_..+1^83,73/<1600=3_/6:/8238/0-1+:=-?^-0=237/2,01?1::-<833443_0:14 _8-9/03_=/+73:(F=-:-:?/20-_68/28I02634123_1:I:0393443_0:M12^=/0^3=/53 _/883,+/062/8<-1817-_/8568+32/<-8-0I(H/:08IM0=323-:0=3-::6314,1^+:_/8-+714 237-1+/8,1^+0181_/8_8-9/035/2-/0-1+M^=323-+9/+I_/:3:+1238-/<83,/0//23 /5/-8/<83( 18

Vulnerability assessments in connection with municipal planning *+0=34-+/8/+/8I:-:M0=31<S3_0140=3-+,-_/01291,38-:01_1+02-<60301/81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7_1+03k0(F=-:-+_86,3:/8:17-5-+7:-7+/8:i6?^/2,:i01^/2,: 237-1+/8/+,+/0-1+/883538:/+,71532+/+_3(F=3_1+03k0^=323162-+,-_/012 91,38:339:01<391:023835/+0-:-+-9?215-+70=3</:-:412,3_-:-1+T9/.-+7-+ <"'2*,)-(*<"M.<*=<.''$'2(*+?2/_0-_3M0=-:-:_1+,6_03,^-0=-+0=342/93^12.14 96+-_-?/8?8/++-+76+,320=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7/_0M/+,_19?2-:3:0=233 -+:0-060-1+/8:I:039:0=/0/??3/201<3?/20-_68/28I23835/+001568+32/<-8-0I /::3::93+0:140=3_8-9/03/+,_8-9/03?18-_-3:'-L96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7d--L 96+-_-?/83+5-21+93+0/8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/0-1+/+,---L393273+_I?8/++-+7( P3835/+081_/8?8/++-+7-+0=-:/23/9/I0/.3,-44323+04129:/+,_1+0/-+,-44323+0 38393+0:' - 0=303k0?/20140=396+-_-?/8?8/+ - 73172/?=-_/896+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+: - 0=39/0-_96+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+:J3(7(3+5-21+93+0/8?2103_0-1+?8/+M _8-9/03?8/+30_(L - 0=3/23/?8/+M^=-_=/7/-+?215-,3:0=342/93^12.41223768/0-1+?8/+: - _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3: c6+-_-?/8?8/++-+7/8:1_1+0/-+:/+-9?120/+0=-"m)##38393+0237/2,-+7=1^ /+,01^=/0,37233-+=/<-0/+0:/+,81_/8-+0323:0:/23-+51853,-+0=3?8/++-+7?21_3::M<3I1+,0=39-+-96923l6-2393+0:1608-+3,-+0=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7 /_0(E+10=32-9?120/+038393+0-+0=-:_1+03k0-:0=3$',)-+.M)<30^33+96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7/+,393273+_I?8/++-+7(F=3_16+0I393273+_I/,9-+-:02/0-1+=/:0=3 2-7=001:?3/./+,-+:193_/:3:011<S3_00196+-_-?/8?8/+:(N620=329123M 96+-_-?/82-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:JPQ@L/23_/22-3,160M^=-_=:=168, <3+/062/88I8-+.3,_81:38I0196+-_-?/8?8/++-+7?21_3::3:( Local environmental protection competence as decisive factor *+1621?-+-1+M-0-:-9?120/+00139?=/:-:30=/096+-_-?/83+5-21+93+0/8?18-_-3: +129/88I^-88?8/I.*&)6*-"<)-+0=-:_1+03k0(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/27630=/0 _8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+:^-88=/53723/0323443_081_/88I-4/,/?0/0-1+:/23?60-+01/ _8-9/03?18-_I_1+03k0(Q0=32^-:3M_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+9/I3/:-8I<323,6_3,01/ 9/003214_-5-8393273+_I?8/++-+7^-0=:1930-3:01/23/?8/++-+7J3(7(01/51-,?8/_-+7+3^=16:3:-+4811,m1+3:30_(L(@6_=/_1++3_0-1+-:?/20-_68/28I -9?120/+00123/?0=3<3+34-0:14?1::-<83:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+39-::-1+ 12-3+03,/+,/,/?0/0-1+12-3+03,_8-9/03?18-_-3:(*+23_3+0I3/2:/+69<3214 B12^37-/+?-1+33296+-_-?/8-0-3:=/53/ 3?03,0=3_=/883+7314,35381?-+70=3-2 1^+81_/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:(Ok?32-3+_3:42190=3^12.^-0=96+-_-?/8_8-9/03 /_0-1+?8/+:/:^388/:0=3-9?8393+0/0-1+140=396_=9123_19?23=3+:-53 H1_/8E73+,/)"/+,^12.^-0=:6:0/-+/<83,35381?93+0:=1^:0=/00=3?1:-0-1+ 1496+-_-?/83+5-21+93+0/8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/012-:,3_-:-534120=3-::6314 ^=30=3212+100=396+-_-?/8-0I^-887309123/_0-538I-+51853,-+3+5-21+93+0/8?18-_I(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/::6930=/00=3?103+0-/841291233k03+:-5381_/8 -+5185393+0/8:1^-0=237/2,01_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+,3?3+,:1+^=30=3212+10 81_/8/60=12-0-3:=/53?32:1++3823:162_3:41215322-,-+7/+,_21::T:3_0-1+/8 19

3+5-21+93+0/8?2103_0-1+/_0-5-0-3:d-+?2/_0-_3/l63:0-1+14^=30=3212+100=3 81_/8/60=12-0-3:=/53/??1-+03,/+3+5-21+93+0/8?2103_0-1+/,5-:32( Local climate adaptation as a precautionary policy O53+-4^3/::6930=/00=323-:/23/:1+/<83,3723314_320/-+0I^-0=237/2,010=3 l63:0-1+14ob),b)-*"-*'",_8-9/03_=/+73:/_06/88i/230/.-+7?8/_3m/+, 4620=329123M0=/09/+T9/,339-::-1+:14_8-9/037/:3:/23/+-9?120/+0_/6:/8 4/_012M_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+^-88/8^/I:<3:021+78I8-+.3,010=3-::6314 6+_320/-+0I(F=-:6+_320/-+0I-:/8:114/46+,/93+0/8+/0623M^=-_=-0^168,<3 /891:0-9?1::-<8301239153_19?83038I(F=-:46+,/93+0/86+_320/-+0I_1+_32+: 0=3-::631481_/83443_0:14_8-9/03_=/+73:(@-+_35/2-/0-1+:9/I<3_1+:-,32/<83M /+,:-+_3-0^-88<3-9?1::-<8301?23,-_0^-0=_320/-+0I0=381_/8-9?/_014_8-9/03 _=/+73:M/+I.-+,1481_/8_8-9/03?18-_I^-88=/5301,3/8^-0=0^10I?3:14</:-_ 6+_320/-+0I'0=3:_-3+0-4-_6+_320/-+0I237/2,-+70=381_/83443_0:14_8-9/03 _=/+73:M/+,0=3?18-0-_/86+_320/-+0I237/2,-+7=1^0=381_/8_1996+-0I^-88<3 /443_03,<I0=3/<:3+_312?23:3+_314+/0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:-9?8393+03,-+ / 12,/+_3^-0=-+032+/0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_I/723393+0:(*+:69M0=-:7-53:6:/ </:-:412/276-+70=/081_/8_8-9/03?18-_I-+?2/_0-_30=3234123:=168,<3/?23_/60-1+T12-3+03,?18-_I( F=3</:-_,-93+:-1+14,B)*=-)M.4,$"'.-6*=-$'M$=<)-:4'M)-,.$',6M/+,0=/00=-: 6+_320/-+0I:=168,4/5162,B)*)'/$-"'()',(`+_320/-+0I/??8-3:01/+69<3214 /23/:'-0/??8-3:<10=010=36+_320/-+0I237/2,-+7_/6:3T3443_0238/0-1+:=-?:/+, 6+_320/-+0I^-0=23:?3_0010=33k03+014+37/0-533+5-21+93+0/83443_0:/:/ _1+:3l63+_314=69/+/_0-5-0I(N120=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?8301<3/??8-3,M 0=323-:/4620=3223l6-2393+00=/00=36+_320/-+0I:=168,?320/-+013+5-21+93+0/8?21<839:14/+$--)/)-#$C<)+/0623( *0-:+101<5-16:B"O0=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83:=168,<3/??8-3,-+?2/_0-_3( Q+3?1::-<83/??21/_=-:01?1-+0010=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83-+/+/27693+0 41296+-_-?/8?8/++-+7/:/_26_-/8-+:02693+0^-0=237/2,01<10=23,6_3, 39-::-1+:/+,_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+(F=-:+3_3::/2-8I-9?8-3:0=/081_/8/60=12-0-3: 96:0C))'.C<)501_/22I1600=3:3?8/++-+7?21_3::3:M/+,01/8/2733k03+00=-:-: /9/003214:300-+7/:-,3/,3l6/03/,9-+-:02/0-53/+,4-+/+_-/823:162_3:f4-2:08I 01_/22I16081_/8568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:M/+,:3_1+,8I01/_06?1+:6_= /::3::93+0:<I-9?8393+0-+75/2-16:/,/?0/0-1+:( F=381_/8/,9-+-:02/0-5383538?21</<8IM"4<5<33+/<83,01_/22I16081_/8 568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:n/81+3]:101:?3/.f7-53+0=38-9-0/0-1+:_1+_32+-+7 0=36+_320/-+0I,3:_2-<3,/<153f<6083/5-+70=323:?1+:-<-8-0I14/,/?0-+7010=3 2-:.:_3+/2-1:0=/023:680421981_/8568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:010=381_/8 /,9-+-:02/0-5383538/81+3M-:6+0=-+./<83(F=3.-+,14?23_/60-1+/2I?21<839: 0=/081_/8_1996+-0-3:/_06/88I4/_3M-+?2/_0-_323l6-23/:021+7/+,<-+,-+7 _11?32/0-1+/_21::,-44323+0:3_012:/+,,-44323+0/,9-+-:02/0-5383538:(*0-: 0=3234123-9?1::-<8301?-_0623_1+_230381_/8_199-093+0^-0=160/<-+,-+7/+, 3l6/88I_19?23=3+:-53+/0-1+/8?18-_I-+0=-:/23/(Ok?32-3+_3:4219/891:003+ I3/2:o344120:01?60E73+,/)"=-7=1+0=381_/83+5-21+93+0/8?18-_I/73+,/ -886:02/030=-:?1-+0M/+,/00=3:/930-93:6773:00=/0^3:=168,:30083412 238/0-538I91,32/03/9<-0-1+:_1+_32+-+73k?3_0/0-1+:1481_/8-+5185393+0 8-+.3,01<-+,-+7+/0-1+/8:6??120( 20

Further work F=3:_1?314162?21S3_0,13:+10?329-0/_19?83031?32/0-1+/8-:/0-1+140=3 -+,-_/01291,38(B12-:-0^-0=-+0=3<16+,/2-3:140=3?21S3_00103:00=391,38-+?2/_0-_3(F=-:0/:.:=168,<341881^3,6?/40320=3_19?830-1+14162?21S3_0( a1?34688im162-+,-_/01291,38-::14/2,35381?3,0=/00=323-:/238/0-538i:=120 ^/I421991,38,35381?93+00191,3803:0-+7M/+,0=6:/</:-:412/9123 l6/8-4-3,1?-+-1+1+^=30=3212+100=3-+,-_/01291,38-:/_06/88i_/?/<8314 _1+02-<60-+7010=30/:.14:023+70=3+-+70=3344120:14B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3: 01/,/?001_8-9/03_=/+73:( 21

6L.;;D?<;=;C P/??1203+-++7;2-05322-+:0-0600?21:S3.030]D8-9/03D=/+73-+B12^/I'E+ E+/8I:-:14O_1+19-_/+,@1_-/8*9?/_0:/+,E,/?0/0-1+:]M30?21:S3.053, D*DOPQ:197S3++194A23:-:/9/2<3-,93,X3:08/+,:412:.-+7MK21@6: J`+-532:-03030-Q:81L17@BNJ@0-4038:3+412+U2-+7:8-5:412:.+-+7Mb3273+L( *++3+4122/993+3/5,3003?21:S3.03032,30,34-+320303730,38?21:S3.0:19 7S38,32,3+-+:0-06:S1+3883,-93+:S1+3+.+I00300-8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( F5322-+:0-0600?21:S3.030:9;832;605-.8330<3723?:93::-72/993532.:1937+32 :370-8;:06,323=512,/+-+:0-06:S1+3883:026.06232./+42399317=-+,23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V30325-,323,34-+320023,389;8412-+:0-0600?21:S3.030' "( >605-.8330/+/8I0-:.2/993532.412;:06,323-+:0-06:S1+388.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7- B1273( )( >-,3+0-4-:323-+:0-06:S1+3883:026.06232:19325-.0-73-;4/:083773?103+:-/830 412;7S3++194A23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7?;81./80+-5;( &( >-,3+0-4-:323+A..384/.01232:19423993217=-+,23223/8-:32-+73+/530:8-.0?103+:-/83( N8323,38?21:S3.0327S3++194A20-++3+-+:0-0600?21:S3.030=/20/00607/+7:?6+.0-3+ 1??4/0+-+7/0,30<"&.<)+-5;30325-.0-7-.8-9/?18-0-..3+JE/8817Y2153+)%%&M H-+,:30=)%%&MBU::)%%&L(V3003./+-607/+7:?6+.030:I+3::1930?/2/,1.:M/88,3+0-,.8-9/?21<83930412:0;2:19302<"C.<,43+193+M17.8-9/?18-0-..7S32+3.+I003:0-8$',)-'.#>"'.<)?18-0-:.3?21:3::32(H-.353832,3048323412=18,:19 6+,32<I7732/017:;,3081./83+-5;30325-.0-7(O0:3+02/80?13+732,30:19-,3+ -+032+/:S1+/83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:8-0032/0623+<3037+3::19]0=3-::63146?T/+,,1^+:_/8-+7](*,30038-7732/0,34/.0-:.33443.03+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+7328300./+ ]./9648323:]199/+-..3=/2300-8:023..38-781./8041.6:(V3032:012381./83 5/2-/:S1+32-3443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(V3003<3:03993:6042/=512,/+.8-9/3+,2-+73+3:8;260M=512:;2</2+/0623+32M=512:;2</2-+42/:026.06217/+,23 38393+032-:/946++3032M17=5-8.3+35+39/+81./80=/20-8;4123<I7731723003 1??:./,32:194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732JG-8</+.:17R/03:"\\\ME7,32)%%"M BU::)%%&L(O0<3:83.030?13+7.+I0032:370-8:?A2:9;83019]1532:300-+7](V3032 -..3</233443.03+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+732:193281./83(O+=532.-8,30-860:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32=/23+.1+.23081./8-030M17,309;,32412-?2-+:-??3081./830-80/.0-8 412;23,6:32360:8-??3+3( V30;4239=353,-::301?13+73+332:385:/70-..3,30:/993:19;:-/0/2<3-,30 93,;23,6:32360:8-??3+360386..3+,3323081./80/+:5/2(a32023+7:,30:385:/70 f./+:.s317:;4a2:0174239:0f17:;0-80/.?;237-1+/80m+/:s1+/8017 -+032+/:S1+/80+-5;(K13+730=3232,3+:3+02/8346+.:S1+3+,3081./83+-5;30./+ =/-;"/)-#),,),30781</83.8-9/?21<839300-8+13:19./+4/003:/5=5323+.380d /80:;,30;<-+,330781</80?21<839:/993+93,3443.032179100-80/.:8-.,-::3 1??8353:81./80JaAI3217E/88"\\#ME/88)%%%L(V3081./83+-5;30=/293,/+,23 12,3+=380/57SA23+,321883-;#$&-)*<)2$,$($,),*"2*"==#<4,'$'2*"(* &<$(.="<$,$&&)'M-0-883770-8/0,3081./83+-5;3017:;-3+.3803:/993+=3+732./+ =/3+21883:194,+"-()-*"2*$/)-&#),,)-/5:8-.30-80/.JY2153+17E/88)%%)L( 22

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Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km 2 O9?-2-:.17,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+77-2+1368-.33:0-9/03241268-.3237-1+32- B1273(P$24-*Y6+,32-886:023232=5-8.3412:.S38832:1932-,3+0-4-:32053, +3,:./832-+730032,3019301,3+3M?;192;,303+,2-+7-;28-7 7S3++19:+-00:039?32/062( 2.5 2.0 Projected change in annual mean temperature DD ED Deg C 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003) 9 9 R1, R6 viser til seks ulike regioner i Norge. 42

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@Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.030=/2D*DOPQ5/870;<3237+3532,-32412/883.1996+32 53,;4-++39-,,38532,-3+938819,3+U28-773+,3532,-?6+.03+3 "" (V3++3:5U20 72153-+032?18/:S1+:9301,3+0/2,3293,0-83+5-::72/,=3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.3 412=18,M,5:(:012:./8/01?172/4-:.3412932M93+-..3:U2023..-=532.1996+3( V3003<83562,320:195/+:.38-7;7SA23-30]153+42/T17T+3,]T?32:?3.0-5( c301,3+./+,3293,7-0-8,38::0123]43-8]( @?A2:9;8303219,305-85U23968-7;+3,:./8323P37D8-9:<3237+-+73253,=S38? /5<"&.<)*5.,.*38832932*&/.<$,.,$/)*/4-5)-$'2)-/581./8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,-.19<-+/:S1+93,:_3+/2-3093,3+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?;##k##.9 ) (V3003323+ 06+79301,-:.,-:.6:S1+:195--..35-8.6++37;-,I<,3+?;-,3++32/??1203+( c3+,3032.8/20/081./83<3237+-+7328300./+a.36:-..32=303+-9/032-380 I00328-77323JS42(<3:.2-538:3/56:-..32=301532L(X-5-88-.3538/+0I,3=5-8.3.8-9/?/2/93023:19,30?103+:-3805-85U23=3+:-.0:93::-7;412:A.3;+3,:./8323 81./80(E8032+/0-53032;<26.3,3<3237+3,3938819532,-3+3?;.1996+3+-5;( O+81./8S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/</:320?;.5/8-0/0-5]:I+:-+7]19.2-+7,3 30/<83203:_3+/2-3+39;-..342/9:0-883::195-03+:./?38-734/.0/(X-./+=38832 -..3:-=512,/+,3003./+7SA23:-,30/8S4A2,3032?2A5,60?2/.:-:M:-,3+,30 /5=3+732/50-87S3+738-7-+4129/:S1+17.19?30/+:381./80(V305-84A8738-7=38832 -..35U233+.380;<3+I003,3++30I?3S6:032-+732-3+.19?/2/0-5:/993+=3+7( H-.35385-85-6+,32:023.3/0,30/09/+412:A.32;41230/81./83562,32-+73217 350(S6:032-+732/5,3144-:-3883.8-9/:_3+/2-3+3M./+=/3+532,--:37:385(E+,23.8-9/3443.0?21:S3.0327-20-8</.3938,-+7193+.8/281./8-+0323::3412.8-9/:_3+/2-3+3Jb/+7948J-+?21723::LdQob2-3+948)%%&LM:/90-,-7:199/+ 237-:023232/09/+81./80-..3:I+3::_3+/2-3+34/+7321??81./83412=18,71,0+1. 0-8/0,34-++32?23,-.:S1+3+323835/+03;<26.3-?2/.:-:(R8-9/:_3+/2-3+3<62,30/ =3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.35/2-/:S1+32:1932<3:03993+,3412,3081./83.8-9/30(* 910:30+-+70-83+]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8+U29-+70-8+3,:./832-+7/5.8-9/,/0/:19 <8-27S120-++3+@Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.030M5-83+]+3,3+42/T17T1??]0-8+U29-+7.6++3<-,2/+3001??0-8:0A22391<-8-:32-+781./80(R8-9/:_3+/2-3232- 607/+7:?6+.030305/+:.38-74380M53,/0,3032:+/..19?23,-.:S1+17<3237+-+732 <38/:03093,:0126:-..32=30M17:19-..3:./8237+3::195U25/2:8-+732M93+:./8 8-.3538?103+:-380,/++3726++8/741281./80-8?/:+-+717?2-12-032-+732(X3,81./8,-:.6:S1+19.2-+7,34239:/003.8-9/:_3+/2-3+3./+9/+A.3<;,3412:0;38:3+412 17:3853-,3+0-4-:32-+73+93,:?A2:9;83019.8-9/3+,2-+732( *5;201??:300/5:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232412.8-9/3+,2-+7325-85-4123:8;/09/+-,3+4A2:03+3,:./832-+73+/5:;2</2=30-+12:.3.1996+32<3+I0032+3,:./83203 P37D8-9T,/0/</:320?;D*DOPQ:0-8+U29-+7M93+:9/+-4/:30181./80412:A.32 ;41230/37+3S6:032-+732:19,-:.60320153+412( R8-9/?/2/93023+3./+726??323:-023726??32' - 039?32/062 - +3,<A2-5-+, 11 Gjennomført av Bård Romstad og Heather Tompkins ved Cicero. 44

O.:02395U2-++7;2:19:U20-8438832-++3+=532./03712-(V30.+I0032:3768-.72/, /56:-..32=300-8?23,-.:S1+3+3-++3+=532./03712-M:/90968-7=303+3412; +3,:./8323,/0/9/032-/8300-8.1996+3+-5;603+;7SA239/032-/83093238832 9-+,23637+30:19726++8/741281./83:;2</2=30:562,32-+732( Q)(=)-.,4-* *0-883770-8;5U2360:8/7/5:012:./8/039?32/0625/2-/:S1+32M:;4A8732039?32/062 =AI,393023+31532=/530?;81./80+-5; ") (L.=#)*-.,)'*3*9;830?;=5129I3 039?32/0623+3+,232:3793,=AI,3+f32-,3+3,32:03.-8193023+3/5/091:4U23+ -7S3++19:+-00_/%MZ#72/,32$"%%9J,5:(/0039?32/0623+/50/21??1532L "& ( F39?32/0623+/50/29-+,2353,46.0-786401793253,0A228640( c3,607/+7:?6+.0-532,-3+3-,30+u293:03]532,-?6+.030]m./+9/+6042/81./83 <3237+-+732/5=AI,3412:.S38832./+:.S34-++342390-837+3039?32/062532,-32( "C *.1996+3293,:0123-+032+3=AI,3412:.S38832M5-8,3017:;5U23/.06380;<3237+3 039?32/062532,-3241248323?6+.032-.1996+3+(V30328-.3538./+:.S393:0 :/++:I+8-7/0039?32/06232./+S6:0323:53,=S38?/5932.5/8-0/0-53562,32-+732M,329/+83773253.0?;238/0-53412:.S38832938819192;,32M</:320?;3+.19<-+/:S1+/5412:.S38832-=AI,3930231781./8.6++:./?19+129/805U260:8/7 81./80( 1)5C%-* H1./83+3,<A2:93+7,3232-..3</2360:8/7/5237-1+/83+3,<A2:4380M93+17:;,3 01?172/4-:.3412=18,3+381./80(@19412039?32/062M5-8,304123+.3803.1996+32 -,3380:3005U2323835/+0;<3237+317:;+3,<A24124832381./8-03032M726++30:0123 412:.S38832-++/,-.1996+3+(NA2:0174239:032,3060:/00=30412237+421+038832 237+:.I773:19<8-2S6:032-+7:4/.0123+3:19./+023..3:-++(V305-85U23 5/+:.38-7;.5/+0-4-:323,-::381./83412:.S3883+3M:;=325-8,30353+063805U23 :+/..19-)<.,$/)412:.S38832:19<3:.2-53:.5/8-0/0-50</:320?;81./8324/2-+7( c303121817-:.-+:0-0600jvbc*$930(+1lm-:/9/2<3-,93,bxom/2<3-,3293,; S6:0323$+3,:./832323:680/03242/,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+753,;<26.381./83 1<:325/:S1+32(V303260/2<3-,30303730:_3+/2-14125/++4A2-+7412?32-1,3+)%&%T )%C\M412<8/+0/++30;.6++3:06,3233+,2-+73248199A+:032JP1/8,948()%%)d* @./673+948()%%)L(>2:532,-3217:3:1+7532,-3232<3237+30412/883+3,<A2:4380- B1273M17=/23+1??8A:+-+7?;"k".9 ) ( "# @19P$24-*Z5-:32M7-2,-::3 <3237+-+73+3-+,-./:S1+32?;.8/23237-1+/83412:.S38832(K21:S3.0307-217:; <3237+-+732412968-73+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+AJ:3*P$24-*[LM93,:/993 1??8A:+-+7:72/,(V300332.8-9/<3237+-+732:194123.:39?38./+023..3:-++- 81./83562,32-+732/5:;2</2=30J4/:3)LM,32:19932,30/8S3203<3237+-+732 30032:?A2:( 12 Med unntak av situasjoner med inversjon, der temperaturen stiger med høydemeterne. "& =00?'$$930(+1$-+,3k(:=098 "C YS3++19:+-00:=AI,3?32.1996+34-++3:-@0/03+:./20532.:E23/8:0/0-:0-..' =00?'$$^^^(:0/0./20(+1$*K@$e91,683wE20-_83:d/_0-1+wE20-_83(?6<8-_@=1^d*VwC#" "# X=/abXT91,3883+'=I,21817-:.91,388412/58A?/5+3,<A2-<3:03903+3,<A2:4380( 45

Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden 2030-2049 sammenliknet med perioden 1980-1999 (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003) Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden 2030-2049 sammenliknet med perioden 1980-1999 (Roald mfl. 2002). V30=/217:;<8-00<3237+30?23,-.:S1+324123+,230=I??-7=30J"17#,/732: 5/2-7=30L17-+03+:-030/53.:0239+3,<A2M412605/87039;83:0/:S1+32J@./673+948( )%%)L(@-,3+,3032.+I0030238/0-50:016:-..32=300-8<3237+-+732/53.:02395U2M <8-2,-::3.8-9/?/2/93023+31??7-00-238/0-53+,2-+742/,/73+:+129/8J:3P$24-* \L( 46

Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002). V-::3<3237+-+73+3./+7-53:3+08-7<3,233:0-9/0323++D*DOPQ:9-,,38532,-32 </:320?;:_3+/2-3093,1??8A:+-+7:72/,##k##.9 ) (X3,<26./5,-::3 <3237+-+73+381./80M./+9/+4(3.:(41230/37+3562,32-+732/5,3081./83 9A+:03230:19<8-2<3:.23530J/)-$+$#)-)]*+.<#$+$#)-)*)<<)-*>4#,)-)LM?;</.726++/5 81./8.6++:./?193.:-:0323+,3+3,<A2:T17/523++-+7:9A+:023(N123+,2-+7- +3,<A2:19:+A<8-2-0-88377039?32/062562,32-+732+I00-73;023..3-++(K;,3+ 9;03+./+9/+23,6:3234/23+412/0:_3+/2-3+381./80<8-21??4/0030:19-223835/+03388324126+I/+:3203412<26.-81./8.1+03.:0( F$'5* V30.+I0032:37:0A2236:-..32=300-8<3237+-+73+3/53+,2-+732-5-+,M17,/ :?3:-3800-8438832/53.:02395-+,J<;,39/.:-969:0I2.317423.53+:L(V3 237-1+/83.8-9/91,3883+3=/25/+:.38-7412;:-968323,3:032.3:035-+,3+3 Ja/673+17B12,3+7)%%"L:-,3+0-,:1??8A:+-+73+-<3237+-+73+3-..3328-03+ +1.0-8/03.:02395-+,M:191403</23./+5/2342/9388190-9-+600320-830?/2 47

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?23,-.:S1+3+3M4123.:39?3830032-=5-8.3+72/,3+,2-+73+332]:5U20:0123]M ]:0123]M]9-,,38:]38832]:9;]J4123.:39?38-412=18,0-88/+,:7S3++19:+-0030L(X- =/2,32-910-..37S1205-,323:?3:-4-:32-+7/5,3++30I?3./03712-:32-+7+;25-?23:3+03232<26./5.8-9/?/2/93023-:;2</2=30:562,32-+732( Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå K/2/93032 O+=30 H1./83S6:032-+732 F39?32/062 N21:0$0-+3,/732 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, W/ X3.:0:3:1+7 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$;2 W/ B3,<A2 N23.53+:/53.:0239+3,<A2 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3- B3,<A2:-+03+:-030 E+0/88993+,2-+7$Z0-932 W/ B3,<A2:19:+A E+0/88993+,2-+7$9+, W/ X-+, X-+,-+03+:-030 E+0/8893+,2-+7$:3. W/ N23.53+:/53.:02395-+, E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3-49

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Påvirkning Tilstand Respons Informasjon Menneskelige aktiviteter Energiforbruk Transport Industri Landbruk Annet Påvirkning Ressurser Miljø- og naturressurstilstand Luft Vann Land Levende organismer Informasjon Sosial respons; handling, vedtak Økonomiske og miljøpolitiske aktører Offentlige organer Privat virksomhet Husholdninger Internasjonale organisasjoner Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994) Sosial respons; handling, vedtak V3032605-.8303+23..39-8SA-+,-./012:I:03932</:320?;K@PT91,3883+M17,/- =153,:/.?;+/:S1+/80+-5;J:34123.:39?38c-8SA532+,3?/20393+030"\\)d QODV"\\CdB12,-:.c-+-:0322;,"\\CL(V3+3230032=532017:;<26.0:19 91,388?;8/532373172/4-:.3+-5;32M:?3:-380?;.1996+3+-5;M17,/412 <U23.2/40:?A2:9;8-:03,3+412932/5723+:3034I:-:.39-8SA:?A2:9;8(b3773 605-,38:3+3/5/+53+,38:3:192;,30=/293,4A20?21<83932(K;.1996+/80+-5; =/2K@PT91,3883+7S32+3<8-00562,320:19/80412.19?8-:320(*:03,3+4123+46880 605-.83091,388=/29/+412:A.0;605-.8368-.34129324124123+.8-+732M93+:19 8-.3538<I7732?;,3+726++83773+,3;2:/.T5-2.+-+7:.S3,3+(V3+3+.83:03 532:S1+3+<3:0;2-/09/+-0-883770-8,3.8/::-:.39-8SA0-8:0/+,:<3:.2-538:3+317:; 0/293,-+,-./01232:19<3:.2-5329-8SA0-80/.1768-.3412932412?;5-2.+-+7:-+,-./01232603+3+:;:023+7:I:039/0-..:19,30K@PT91,3883+ 8377321??0-8(V3++341293+4120-8?/:+-+732324123.:39?38605-.830-++3+412,30 3621?3-:.3]@6:0/-+/<83D-0-3:]?2172/9930JE8<320-"\\&L17,30+12:.3 c-8sa<i?2172/930j@nf)%%%l( Lokale bærekraftindikatorer O0:?3:-380023..?;"\\%T0/883032,3+194/003+,3/.0-5-0303+412;605-.83*<"&.<)* <U23.2/40-+,-./01232(V30=/25U2030-+032+/:S1+/8043+193+T3++I023+,- -+,-./012605-.8-+73+:;17:-(c/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L93+32/0,3032?;,3081./83+-5;309/+./+5-:30-853:3+08-7342/9:.2-00,3:-:03;23+3M17:;53,/0 -+,-./0123+34/.0-:.320/00-<26.-.1+.2303<3:860+-+7:?21:3::32(O05-.0-7M93+ 17:;.2-0-:.023..-42/953.:03+/5,30:0123/+0/883081./83<U23.2/40-+,-./0123232 /0,3++3605-.8-+73+-9/+730-8438832=/2:.S3,,-?21:3::3293,+"<&)<$2* 5)<,.&)<#)Mc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L5-:320-89/+73?1:-0-53324/2-+732M :?3:-380-O+78/+,(c3+418.38-7,380/.38:332-:37:385-+73+7/2/+0-412:6.:3:: Jb2679/++"\\sM@0-28-+7"\\\L(V380/.38:39;17:;194/003<26.3+/5 -+,-./0123+317-++=3+0-+73+/5324/2-+73+319<26.3+M-..3</23605-.8-+73+/5 -+,-./0123+3(a3232,30/80:;-..3:;9I3;5-:30-8( O0/++30.2-0-:.:?A2:9;832-+,-./0123+3:+.&,$#&)<U23.2/40-++=18,(*..39-+:0- O+78/+,32,309/+733.:39?832?;-+,-./012:I:0393293,=AI:068-.1??4/0+-+7 /5781</8<U23.2/40-7605-.8-+7M17:197S32+38-77328/+7042/3+4/78-7412:5/28-7 1??4/0+-+7JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(V30./+5U23/.0638093,93,5-2.+-+717:;+;2,307S38,32605-.8-+7/581./83-+,-./0123219.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7M17?;:/9939;03 51

:19?;?3.0153232,30,/5-.0-7;53-31??-++:?-884239.199307S3++19 93,5-2.+-+7:?21:3::321??910-++:?-8842/4/73.:?320-:3( Bruken av lokale indikatorer *+,-./01232./+03+.3:<26.0-9/+7368-.3:/993+=3+732(V30./+5U23412; 0I,38-77SA233+42/90-,-7605-.8-+7:230+-+7M;7-3071,0<-8,3/5605-.8-+73+-3+ 0-8:0/+,M353+06380;=18,3237+:./?93,3443.03+3/50-80/.17=/+,8-+7(B129/80 5-8,305U23:+/..19483230I?32.'.<6#)-JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(j+./03712-7S38,3223+0$'+"-()-)'5)/+/8I:32' *+,-./01232412;237-:023231715325;.3605-.8-+73+-3+0-8:0/+,M4123.:39?38 9-8SA0-8:0/+,J]9-8SA15325;.-+7]L( *+,-./01232412;0I,38-77SA23605-.8-+7:230+-+7J]230+-+7:/+/8I:3]L( *+,-./01232412;:/993+8-7+3373+?23:0/:S1+93,/+,23Ji<3+_=9/2.-+7iL( O+/++3+./03712-32/+/8I:32:193293+0;-++7;-+"-()<<)* C)#<4,'$'2#=-"#)##)-' *+,-./01232412;2/??1203231??1532-30<3:860+-+7::I:039J]2/??12032-+7]L( *+,-./01232412;0I,38-77SA23.1+:3.53+:32/5?8/+8/7030-80/.17=/+,8-+732 J].1+:3.53+:562,32-+7]L( *+,-./01232412;237-:023231735/863233443.03+3/57S3++194A2030-80/.17 =/+,8-+732J]35/8632-+7]L( *?2-+:-??30./+9/+03+.3:37/883,-::341293+3412/+/8I:3-3+.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7::/993+=3+7M93+-4A2:03197/+74239:0;2]($<>%"/)-/7&'$'2] :19,3+/+/8I:341293+,30325-.0-7:0;4;?;?8/::4A2:0(V30:I+3:2-938-7;?;:0; /0,30;=/1532:-.015320-8:0/+,3+81./80M/80:;=512:;2</2081./8:/946++3032-412=18,0-8.8-9/3+,2-+732M323+-++7/+70-8,3/+,2341293+3412/+/8I:3( V368-.3/+/8I:3+35-8+129/8023003:37-++91068-.39;8726??32M175-817:;.6++3=/68-.3.2/593,=3+:I+0-80I?3-+4129/:S1+M388322300323:/70+AI/.0-7=30 -,3+-+4129/:S1+3+-+,-./0123+3:./84129-,83M+135-.199320-8</.30-86+,32( V307;2-9-,8320-,30=153,:.-883938819/+/8I:341293+38-:0301??1532'V3023 4A2:0332932-+4129323+,3603+-++3<I7,341260:30+-+73219;-++7;-41293883 <3:860+-+7::I:03932M93+:,3023:-:033293+0:19+3001??;-++7;-41293883 <3:860+-+732(X-./+,32412:.-883938819=5-8.3#,6-$'2#()##$2):/993+=3+732 -+,-./0123+3:./8-++7;-M,305-8:-19,332JaAI3217E/88)%%)L' *+,-./012324121443+08-7$'+"-(.#>"'*"2*5)C.,,',305-8:-0-8 =18,+-+7::./?3+,3/2<3-,23003091068-.381./83/.0A232( *+,-./01232412="<$,$#&:0I2-+7',305-8:-93,418.35/8703:19,3+5-.0-7:03 9;8726??3+17<26.0-153212,+3,3:/993+=3+732,32,307SA23:5-.0-7317 932?2-+:-?-38012-3+03203?18-0-:.3/553--+732( *+,-./01232412.5($'$#,-.,$/:0I2-+7',305-8:-,32,30-:0A22372/,32 /,9-+-:02/:S1+3+:1932=153,/.0A23+J4123.:39?3853,.1+:3.53+:562,32-+732/568-.360<I77-+7:/8032+/0-5L93+,32418.35/8703 52

<2-+73:-++412;:/+.:S1+323,30/,9-+-:02/:S1+3+=/27S120M353+06380412; 4/0039-+,2317932,30/8S3203?18-0-:.3/57SA238:32( Kalde og varme indikatorer R19<-+/:S1+3+/5,-93+:S1+3+3]/+/8I:30I?3]17]:0I2-+7:93::-73 :/993+=3+732]7-23+23..368-.3412932412<26.:192;,32:195/2-32328/+7:3+ :./8/1903.+-:.+AI/.0-7=3017h+:./8/:197S38,32,305-./+<3037+3:19 -)#"'.'#(a5-:-+,-./0123+33293+0;910-53230-8=/+,8-+7m-..3</235u2323+0 -+4129323+,3M32,30-..3+1./0,3+32+AI/.0-7d-+4129/:S1+3+9;17:;:./?3 -)#"'.'#41238832=1:,3+0-803+.039;8726??3+(c;8726??3+9;412:0; -+4129/:S1+3+17<8-910-53200-8;6083,3=/+,8-+7?;</.726++/5,3++3 -+4129/:S1+3+(V30./+-,3++3:/993+=3+73+:.-883:938819&.<5)17/.-() -+,-./01232Jc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.&"\\#L(V3]./8,3]32-:-+23+,I2.3,34129 4/78-7,30/8S320317.2353+,3M93+32412./8,30-8/0,3:./?3223:1+/+:=1: /.0638839;8726??32(V3]5/293]7-2,3++323:1+/+:3+M93+320-87S3+7S38, 6?23:-:3388328-03,3..3+,3412,3:/993+=3+73+3,3-++7;2-(*4-7623+6+,32=/2 5-5-:0=512,/+,368-.3/+/8I:341293+3./+238/0323:0-868-.372/,32/523:1+/+:( K13+730=32327S3++19-,3/80I?3./03712-32;5-:3=512,/+,-::3238/:S1+3+3&.' 1??023(*?2/.:-:5-89/+4-++3:01235/2-/:S1+321715328/??( n./8,] (TQ2>5=CI?5 c-8sa15325;.-+7 P30+-+7:/+/8I:3 b3+_=t9/2.-+7 R1+:3.53+:562,32-+7 O5/8632-+7 P/??12032-+7,?F4;2;F n5/29] Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995) Ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp O05-.0-7:.-883+;2,307S38,3281./83-+,-./012:I:039327;2?;,305-./+./88330 5320-./80?32:?3.0-5',305-8:-=5125-,0:I:0393+33203+.0]"/)'+-.3"23')5]38832 ]')5)'+-.3"23"==](V-::301=153,91,3883+3/581./83-+,-./012:I:03932=/2 68-.=3032<;,3+;2,307S38,3203.+-:.604129-+717<26.:192;,32JS40/<3883+ 6+,32L(V3+4A2:03./03712-3+327S32+30I?-:.]./8,3]:I:0393260412930412;7- =3883272153562,32-+732/5237-1+/85/2-/:S1+?;30+/:S1+/80+-5;(c10:/0032,3+ /+,23./03712-3+-+,-./012:I:03932932?23730/5;5U23]5/293]17932,30/8S3203?;308/532373172/4-:.+-5;M412,-,-::37S32+33293+0;-++7;-3+81./8 <3:860+-+7::/993+=3+7( 53

Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer V/0/73+3232-+7 *+,-./01232 b26.:192;,3 ]Q53+42/T17T +3,] ]B3,3+42/T17T 1??] B/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-.. <2600+3,?;4I8.3:T 38832.1996+3+-5; H1./83,/0/350( :6??832093,+/:S1+/8 :0/0-:0-.. Q403]./8,3] -+,-./0123217 :0/+,/2,-:3203,/0/( Q403]5/293] -+,-./0123293,8-03+ 72/,/5:0/+,/2,-:3203,/0/( *+4129/:S1+17,3</00 P/??12032-+742/.1996+3 0-8:0/0 B/:S1+/83:0/06:562,32-+732 K18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/0-5 :0I2-+781./80 H1./82/??12032-+717.1+:3.53+:562,32-+7 Q7:;=325-8,30-?2/.:-:5U2315328/??(O0.1+.2303.:39?3832RQ@FPE JRQ996+3T@F/0TPE??12032-+7L(V30033230+/:S1+/80-+4129/:S1+::I:039:19 7-2-+4129/:S1+19.1996+/8174I8.3:.1996+/85-2.:19=30(@I:0393032 ]+3,3+42/T17T1??]-,3+412:0/+,/0,/0/3+3-=153,:/.3273+3232081./801753, /0,3<8-2<26.0-81./83<3:860+-+7:?21:3::3217:19726++8/7412;:3+,3 :0I2-+7::-7+/832]1??1532]-4125/80+-+7::I:0393042/.1996+3+3(@/90-,-732 :I:03930:032.0?23730/53+]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8+U29-+7M-,3+412:0/+,/0:0/03+ =/2?;8/70.1996+3+3;2/??1203231??1532-:I:03930300323+<3:03909301,-..M 17/0:0/03+:385<26.32RQ@FPET,/0/0-815325;.-+7/5.1996+/85-2.:19=30 -++3+41268-.3:3.01232(@.-88309388193+]153+42/T17T+3,]17]+3,3+42/T17T1??] 0-8+U29-+75-:32:3717:;-+13+/5,34;412:A.3+3:19=/25U20?;;605-.83 81./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:-+,-./01232M+135-:./8.19930-8</.30-8( Sårbarhetsindikatorer @;2</2=30:-+,-./012323230238/0-50+I00<3723?/+53+,0-3+9-8SAT17 <U23.2/40:/993+=3+7Jc1::17b23+.320)%%"L(V3++30I?3+-+,-./01232<83 4A2:00/00-<26.-++3+%&"'"($)':19305-2.39-,,38412;41260:34-+/+:-3883.2-:32 )% 17-++3+4,/$&<$'2#.-C)$5412;562,323:;2</2=30?;+/:S1+/80+-5;- 412=18,0-84/00-7,19174/00-7,19:,2-53+,3412=18,:190A2.3178-7+3+,3 )" JO5/+:)%%%Mb2-7678-1"\\)MR388I17E7,32)%%%L(K;($<>%192;,3032 :;2</2=30:-+,-./012324A2:0174239:0605-.830-0-8.+I0+-+70-8:?A2:9;83019.8-9/3+,2-+732J:34123.:39?38q/9/,/948"\\#L( @;2</2=30:19-++7/+70-8605-.8-+7/5C0-)&-.+,-+,-./01232<834A2:037/+70/00 1??-412<-+,38:393,]F=3Y81</8@699-01+@9/88*:8/+,V35381?-+7@0/03:] J@*V@L-b/2</,1:M"\\CJR/8I948)%%&L(*)%%&<83,308/7042393+373+ 9301,-..93,<3037+38:3+]O+5-21+93+0/8X68+32/<-8-0I*+,3k]M17,30<83?23:3+0320<3237+-+732/5-/80#C-+,-./01232412)&#8/+,(*+,-./0123+332 726??32030032=5-8.3+0I?3:;2</2=30,30320/8319'9303231817-:.M731817-:.M <-1817-:.1793++3:.3:./?0J/+021?173+L(*0-88377-++3=18,32:I:0393030/+0/88 -+,-./01232:19<3:.2-532+/0620-8:0/+,3+JS40/<3883+?;+3:03:-,3L( V368-.3412:A.3+3?;;605-.83:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232?;9-8SA192;,305-:32/0,30 3230:83.0:./?93,K@PT91,3883+(c/+0/293,<;,30-8:0/+,:T17 20 International Monetary Fund (IMF) har utviklet et system som består av fire indikatorgrupper: "Indicators of external and domestic debt". "indicators of reserves adequacy", "financial soundness indicators" og "corporate sector indicators" (se www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/vul.htm). 21 Slike indikatorsystemer er bl.a. tatt i bruk av verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO), jf for eksempel www.who.int/disasters/repo/5507.pdf. 54

?;5-2.+-+7:-+,-./01232JS4,34-234A2:03./03712-3+3-0/<3883+6+,32L-0-883770-8 +13+41293241223:?1+:-+,-./01232JS4./03712-3+]_16+02I_=/2/_032-:0-_:]- 0/<3883+6+,32LM93+9/+<3+I0032-..3:/993817-:.3;2:/.T5-2.+-+71??:300 :19-KP@T91,3883+(V30+I3-412=18,0-802/,-:S1+38839-8SAT38832 <U23.2/40-+,-./01291,3883232-9-,8320-,/09/+0/293,]+/0628-73]?;5-2.+-+7:-+,-./01232M:19]/+0/88:.23,]17]4123.19:0/53.:02395U2]M- 0-883770-8/00-8:0/+,:-+,-./0123+3<8-2605-,3093,93273+323883 A.1:I:039-+,-./01232J:19]039?32/062]17]+3,<A2]L( Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003) D/03712I *+,-_/012 D/03712I *+,-_/012 D16+02I c303121817-_/80=23/0: @3/F39?32/0623 K32_3+0148/+,/23/83::0=/+"%93032:/<153 a-7=^-+,: _=/2/_032-:0-_: :3/83538K32_3+0148/+,/23/<381^"%93032: V2I?32-1,: J_1+0(L -+3835/0-1+^-0=-+).-8193032:14_1/:0 G30?32-1,: B69<3214.+1^+3+,39-_:?3_-3:?32:l6/23 a3/0:?388:.-8193032:8/+,/23/ D18,:?388: B69<32148/+,/+,:3/<12,32::=/23,^-0= 10=32_16+02-3: V-:0/+_301+3/23:0_1+0-+3+0 E+021?173+-_ V3+:-0I14?31?83-+_1/:0/8/23/: Y31817-_/80=23/0: X18_/+13: 0=23/0: K1?68/0-1+,3+:-0I O/20=l6/.3: K1?68/0-1+721^0= F:6+/9-: H1::14+/062/8_1532 c3/+?32_3+0/++6/8_=/+7314 K3:0-_-,3:6:3 /23/14-_3 N320-8-m326:3 B69<3214:8-,3: G/:03^/032 b-1817-_/80=23/0: B69<321423?1203,127/+-:9 K21,6_0-1+^/:03: 160<23/.:?32:l6/23.-8193032: G/:03023/093+0 8/+,/23/ B69<3214:?-88:141-8/+,=/m/2,16: F10/801++/7314423-7=0-9?1203, :6<:0/+_3:?32I3/2?32:l6/23.-8193032:14 F1k-_-+,6:02-3: 8/+,/23/ B69<321453=-_83:?32:l6/23.-8193032:14 B69<3214:?3_-3:-+021,6_3, 8/+,/23/ :-+_3"\%%?32:l6/23.-8193032: c/k-969)c=162@q )_1+_3+02/0-1+ 8/+,/23/ K32_3+0/7314?1?68/0-1+^-0=/ 3::01:/43 O+,/+7323,:?3_-3: :/+-0/0-1+ B69<3214:?3_-3:.+1^+01=/53 G/0326:3 <3_1933k0-+_0 K32_3+0148/+,/23/,372/,3, K32_3+0/7314+/062/8/+, B69<3214+3^4-:=32-3::01_.:123k?/+,3, 23721^0=53730/0-1+_1532 4-:=32-3:344120:/,,3,010=3_16+02I 239/-+-+7 V33?9-+-+7J01+3:$I3/2L *+03+:-534/29-+7J01++/73 @624/_39-+-+7J01+3:$I3/2L?21,6_3,?32I3/2?32:l6/23 K32_3+01403223:02-/8m1+3:30/:-,3.-8193032:8/+,/23/L K32_3+0149/2-+3m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C(& N12:A.?;;605-.8381./83-+,-./01232?;.8-9/192;,30 a5/=/25-:;;<i773?;/5932:?3:-4-..3324/2-+732?;.8-9/192;,30ex-5-8 023..34239324/2-+732?;023192;,32:195-93+3232:U28-723835/+03+;2,30 7S38,3230/<832-+7/5:I:03932:19194/003281./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:-+,-./01232' 81./8.8-9/?8/+8377-+7d 81./8<323,:./?:?8/+8377-+7d17 +3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/8317781</83.8-9/91,38832( *B12734-+:,3071,0605-.83,33.:39?832-++3+/883,-::3023192;,3+3M93+</23 -++3+412,304A2:03192;,3032,307S3++194A20932194/003+,317:I:039/0-:. -++:/98-+7/5?2/.0-:.3324/2-+732JY2153+17E/88)%%)L(*++3+412 <323,:./?:?8/+8377-+717+3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/8317781</83.8-9/91,3883232,309320/83199301,3605-.8-+717:?23,03324/2-+73242/412:A.:5-2.:19=30JE/88 17Y2153+)%%&L( *++3+412/883,3023192;,3+3./+605-.8-+73+/5-+,-./012:I:03932?8/::323: -++3+4123+153+42/T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./0123+30/2607/+7:?6+.0-+/:S1+/83M -9/+730-843883217:;781</83,/0/:300M17412:A.32:;53,=S38?/568-.303.+-..32 f=326+,3217:;s6:032-+793,81./83,/0/t;:./8323+3,,/0/3+30-881./80+-5;( O+:3+02/803.+-..327S32+34239:0-88-+7/5&.-,:195-:32237-1+/81781./8 5/2-/:S1+M-9/+730-843883293,+AI/.0-7=30=380+3,?;.1996+3+-5;( Lokal klimaplanlegging @0/03+:412623+:+-+7:0-8:I+-:/9/2<3-,93,@0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<I2;=/2605-.83030 <3237+-+7:532.0AI:197SA2,30968-7;237+3604I8.3:T17.1996+35-:3 1532:-.032153260:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32JS42(0/<3883+6+,32L( b3237+-+7:91,3883+320-87s3+738-7?;*+032+300(v30327s3++194a20412:a.93, 605-.8-+7/581./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32-3002300-0/88:+12:.3.1996+3217 4I8.3:.1996+32M,3260/2<3-,-+7/581./83.8-9/237+:./?-++7-..:1930 607/+7:?6+.0412,381./83?8/+?21:3::3+3( Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter R-8,3 `0:8-?? @0/:S1+U2412<23++-+7 *+,6:02- ""%) E++3++U2-+7 "#%C a6:=18,+-+732 #\s E++3+:0/:S1+U2412<23++-+7 % K21:3::60:8-?? *+,6:02- % V3?1+- "[ZZ& H/+,<26. "&"&% E+,23?21:3::60:8-?? &## c1<-83.-8,32 K32:1+T175/23<-832 "&\%[ H/:03<-83217<6::32 #CZ[ c1?3,17cd "%C @.-?17<;032 \%) N8I s%) E+,2391<-83.-8,32 "[\) %452D?B5FD=33 7U:RU 59

N2/953.:03+/5.8-9/?18-0-..:1930.8/206002I.0.1996+/80?18-0-..192;,332 68A:38-7.+I00300-842/953.:03+/5.1996+/83.8-9/?8/+32,3:-:03?/2;23+3M93+,30<I773217:;?;0-,8-7323324/2-+73293,81./83+327-?8/+8377-+717:/912,+30 02/+:?120T17/23/8?8/+8377-+742/"\[%T17"\\%T0/8830(V34A2:033.:39?83+3?; 81./83.8-9/?8/+3260/2<3-,30/5+12:.3.1996+3232b3273+J"\\sLMR2-:0-/+:/+, J"\\[LMQ??8/+,J"\\[L17N23,2-.:0/,J)%%%L(O+7S3++197/+7/5-/8030 02300-0/88:412:A.93,81./83+327-T17.8-9/?8/+8377-+7-?32-1,3+)%%%T%"5-:32 /0.1996+3+323?23:3+03232305-.0-7?103+:-/8-412=18,0-8;<-,2/0-81??4I8838:3 /5,3+12:.3.8-9/412?8-.038:3+3JY2153+17E/88)%%)L(O+7S3++197/+7/5 0-80/.4123:8;00-,3.1996+/83.8-9/?8/+3+3/+0I,323023,6.:S1+:?103+:-/8 0-8:5/23+,3198/7"$&/5,3+/:S1+/83412?8-.038:3+330032RI101T?2101.1883+ J@385-7)%%"L( F1=-+,2-+73232:U28-70I,38-73+;2,307S38,32;4;0-853:3+08-73<-,2/742/.1996+3+3-/2<3-,3093,;23,6:323.8-9/7/::60:8-??'41237/+7:.1996+32 1??83532/0,30.1996+/83=/+,8-+7:21993032412<$,)M<8/+0/++30?;726++/5 9/+783+,3=12-:1+0/8-+037232-+7?;+/:S1+/80+-5;/5.8-9/=3+:I+-5-.0-73 :3.01232:193+327-1702/+:?120M93+::-06/:S1+3+412,323:0323+,3.1996+3+3 32/0,300-87S3+738-73=/+,8-+7:219930<8-260+I00/+"-*57-<$2JY2153+17E/88 )%%)L(F-8:5/23+,3324/2-+732327S120<8/+0/++30-B3,328/+,JD13+3+17 c3+.538,)%%)l( V30325-,323.+I0030+13+5-.0-7341260:30+-+7320-8,30;608A:330?103+:-/8412.1996+/8-++:/0:-.8-9/?18-0-..3+(V305-853+038-75U23/57SA23+,319.1996+3+34;2:0/08-7:0A0030-8.8-9/?8/+8377-+7-4A2:03197/+7M175-,323:0A003 0-87S3++194A2-+7/581./83.8-9/0-80/.(X-,32332,30/57SA23+,3/09-8SAT17.8-9/?18-0-..<8-2:/000-8:023..38-7=AI0?;,3+81./8?18-0-:.3,/7:12,3+17/0.1996+3+3=/271,+1./,9-+-:02/0-5./?/:-030179-8SA4/78-7.19?30/+:3 JY2153+17E/88)%%)L(Q7:;=3232,307S1200-8:5/23+,3324/2-+73242//+,238/+, JD188-32"\\sMb30:-8)%%"MD13+3+17c3+.538,)%%)L(B3,7/+73+-/+0/8830.1996+32:19=/24/:0/+:/009-8SA532+83,32./+5-:3:37;5U233+/85128-7 =-+,2-+7412:032.323-+518532-+7/5.1996+3+3-.8-9/?18-0-..3+JY2153+17 E/88)%%)L( Lokal beredskapsplanlegging R1996+3+33246+,/93+030-:/946++30:1?32/0-53.2-:3<323,:./?JBQ`)%%"L( X3,.2-:32:19.1996+3+-..3.8/232;=;+,0323:385M./+.1996+3+<3 4I8.3:9/++3+19/::-:0/+:3M388324I8.3:9/++3+./+?;3730-+-0-/0-5:/912,+3.2-:3=;+,032-+73+(@3+02/83.1996+/831??7/532-.2-:3:-06/:S1+3232<8(/(; 1??2300=18,3.1996+/8346+.:S1+32M-+4129323M<-:0;?18-0-30177S3++194A23 1??2I,,-+7:/.:S1+32M-0-883770-81??7/532:19328/700-8<2/++53:3+3017=38:3T 17:1:-/8:3.0123+( *8A?30/5"\\%T0/88303+,230<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-B1273./2/.03242/;5U23.2-7:12-3+03200-8;<8-932:-5-8012-3+0320(V30039;5-:3-8I:/5023412=18,',3+ :-..32=30:?18-0-:.3:-06/:S1+3+30032/0S32+03??304/80d605-.8-+7/53+:0/,-7932.19?83.:17:;2</2-+42/:026.062d1701194/003+,3+/062./0/:021432?;4A2:03 =/85,38/5"\\%T0/8830J+I00;2:12./+3+-"\\)17:012481993+?;g:08/+,30-"\\#L JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 60

@0(938,(+2("sJ)%%"T)%%)L']@/946++::-..32=30(X3-3+0-8309-+,23:;2</20 :/946++]M:19:.-::3232726++8/730412,/73+:<323,:./?:?18-0-..M7-2</233+ :699/2-:.190/83/5.8-9/3+,2-+7:19:/946++::-..32=30:?21<839(H-.3538 1??8I:32V-23.012/030412:-5-80<323,:./?JV@bL/0,30033230039/9I+,-7=303+3 321??0/00/5M17:19V@b=/2/9<-:S1+3219;73+32323412:.+-+726+,0( D"((4')')#<323,:./?:/2<3-,32:U28-7.+I00300-8?8/+8377-+7( b323,:./?:=3+:i+:./8-++/2<3-,3:<;,3-,3+12,-+u23/23/8?8/+8377-+73+m 7S3++192-:-.1T17:;2</2=30:/+/8I:32JPQ@L17.2-:3?8/+8377-+7(PQ@3230 5-.0-7532.0AI-,3003/2<3-,30M:1923,:./?412;./20837736A+:.3,3=3+,38:32,30./+5U23/.06380;4123<I77338832?8/+837730-80/.910M17:19726++8/7412.2-:3?8/+8377-+717A52-7?8/+8377-+7(PQ@328-.3538-..3815?;8/70?; 9-8SA192;,30M:8-.0-843883032412:1:-/8T17=38:3192;,30(`+,32:A.38:32604A20412 V@b0I,32?;/0h+/50-.1996+329/+7832PQ@M93+:9-+,233++=/85?/203+/5.1996+3+393,PQ@=/24/0030?18-0-:.53,0/.191??4A87-+7/52-:-.1T17 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:3+JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( P-$/$<<$2)*B4(.'$,0-)*"-2.'$#.#>"')-*:?-88323+5-.0-721883-<323,:./?:T17 :/946++::-..32=30:/2<3-,307S3++19:-+,380/.38:3-+12:.23,+-+7:0S3+3:0317 7S3++1968I..3:4123<I773+,3/2<3-,(V346+73232-9/+730-8438832:19 <-+,383,,938819<3418.+-+7171443+08-73:026.06232M17=/2,3293,3+ 93,5-2.+-+7:46+.:S1+( *483238/+,32,303.:39?832?;+/:S1+/83<323,:./?::02/037-32.+I00300-8 +/062./0/:021432:19:I:039/0-:.-+5185323217:;,30-)2$"'.<)17<"&.<) 4125/80+-+7:+-5;30(V30/+0/.38-7<3:0605-.83,3:I:039304-++3:-`@EJE/8817 Y2153+)%%&L(O05-.0-738393+0-,30;-+51853233081./804125/80+-+7:+-5;32 :I+8-77SA2-+7/52-:-.1(a3232&.-,C.#)-,)532.0AI30:3+02/80:0-..12,(N-7623+ 6+,325-:32303.:39?38?;./2060:+-00:19412:A.32;:I+8-77SA2348194/23(F-8./203032,30.+I0030:03,4/:03237-:032</:32031??8I:+-+732:8-./0,6./+.8-..3?;,32,6<12M174;932,30/8S320-+4129/:S1+193.:02395U2M:.23,4/23M48194/23 1(/( Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County 22 22 Generert ut fra en nasjonal karttjeneste laget av Federal Emergency Management Agency, lagt ut på www.fema.gov/mit/tsd. 61

F-8:5/23+,3./20</:320-+4129/:S1+326+,32605-.8-+717:;-B1273M<8(/(-237-/5 E23/8-:?21:S3.030J:.23,L17BXOJ4819LMS4(3.:39?386+,32(N12,3832/5B1273 4-++3:,30+;./200-87S3+738-7?;*+032+300:195-:324/23:1+32412:03-+TM:+AT17.5-..83-23:.23,M17,329/+6042/30B1273:./20:195-:32=5-8.3192;,32:1932./208/70./+.8-..3:37+3,0-8:-+373+.1996+3175-,323+3,0-8+-5;93, 3+.380<I7+-+732J<8-2+U29323190/80-./?-0038#L(R/200S3+3:03+342/9:0;2-9-,8320-,-..3:19,-23.03.+I00300-8,30?2/.0-:.3<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-,3+ 412:0/+,/0,38-7732?;41238A?-73176+,3212,+303J17238/0-505/+:.38-7 0-87S3+738-73L:-,32 )& ( Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred 24 *E23/8-:?21:S3.03032,30?8/+3219;605-.833+194/003+,3./20</:3200S3+3:03?; 192;,30<323,:./?J:34-7626+,32L(b323,:./?-++7;2:19300/5")=153,039/ )# ( K21<83930=32M:19-23:03+/5E23/8-:?21:S3.030M:I+3:-9-,8320-,;5U23/0 /9<-:S1+:+-5;3093,=3+:I+0-8-++:/98-+7M53,8-.3=18,170-8230038377-+7/5,/0/M :;8/+70-..3:I+3:;:0;-:0-893,0-87S3+738-7323::62:320-8<;,3;30/<832317 60+I00330:8-.0:I:039JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 23 Se www.geonorge.no/website/ras/viewer.htm (stein- og snøskred), www.geonorge.no/website/kvikk/viewer.htm (kvikkleire) og www.nve.no/modules/module_109/publisher_view_product.asp?ientityid=4678&imenuid =282&strBoxColor=99CCFF&strYAH=>NVE>%3Cb%3EVann%3C%2Fb%3E>Flomvarsel>Flomsonekartprosjektet (flomsoner). 24 Kilde: www.statkart.no/arealis/tema/temakart/images/beredskap_2.jpg. Tilsvarende eksempel finnes for kvikkleireskred (www.statkart.no/arealis/tema/temakart/images/beredskap_1.jpg) 25 De øvrige er: natur, landbruk, kulturminner, rekreasjon, landskap, forurensning, kyst/fiskeri, plan, vannforsyning, befolkning og reindrift. 62

Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid 26 Nedskalering av nasjonale og globale klimamodeller V3+41293+412./20</:320-+4129/:S1+:19325-:06+,32JS42(N-762"&LM-++7;2-3+8/+702/,-:S1+?;9-8SA192;,30,329/+:A.32;-,3+0-4-:323192;,32:1932 :U28-7<38/:03093,9-8SA:./,3238832192;,3293,:U28-7:012360:8-??38832/+,23 4129324129-8SA<38/:0+-+7(F2/,-:S1+380=/2,30035U207S120:19,38/5+/:S1+/83 15325;.+-+7:?2172/993238832:19=S38?39-,,38412;605-.83179;823003 +/:S1+/89-8SA?18-0-..(V3++302/,-:S1+3+3217:;0/001??-/2<3-,3093,; +3,:./8323781</83.8-9/91,38832412,3293,;4;4239./20:195-:32237-1+/817 81./85/2-/:S1+41268-.3.8-9/?/2/93023217,329/+-+3:03197/+7./+/583,3./20:195-:320-8:5/23+,3968-735/2-/:S1+32-.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/5/2-/:S1+32( V303230032=53203+23..3-+032+/:S1+/833.:39?832?;237-1+/81781./8 +3,:./832-+77S120-68-.3+/:S1+/83:/993+=3+732JD13+"\\sMH-5329/+17 c32-,-0=)%%)mg/0:1+948"\\sl(v303217:;1??23003037+3+300:03,32,329/+./+:06,32338832,380/-+032/.0-50-;30/<832381./8317237-1+/83 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:32 )s (`+,32325-:0303.:39?38?;237-1+/85/2-/:S1+/5.8-9/,/0/ =3+03042/,30+12:.3P37D8-9?2172/9930M17,32].1996+3532,-32]32<3237+30 53,=S38?/5-+032?18/:S1+J42/D*DOPQ:@Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.0M9301,3190/80-./?-0038&L( 26 Kilde: www.statkart.no/arealis/tema/hovedtema/beredskap.html 27 Se for eksempel Storbritannia www.ukip.org.uk, Nederland www.dow.wau.nl/msa/noimpact.htm, USA www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/, Sør-vest USA www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/, Mist-Atlantisk region i USA www.essc.psu.edu/mara/index.html, Karibien www.cpacc.org, Canada www.nccp.ca/nccp/index_e.html, Australia www.marine.csiro.au/iawg, Arktis www.acia.uaf.edu. 63

Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager ) Lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer *?21:S3.030]H<$(.,)*HB.'2)*F4<')-.C$<$,6*$'*1"-O.6N*"M$"3)M"'"($M* T)-#=)M,$/)#*"'*T"<$M$)#*.'5*?(=.M,#]=/2D*DOPQ/2<3-,3093,;605-.8330./20</:320-+,-./012:I:039:19/+0I,301532JQob2-3+948)%%&L(F-8:5/23+,3:19 -,30:I:039305-:./8605-.83MA+:.329/+17:;=32;4;423981./8:;2</2=30 1532412<;,3.8-9/3+,2-+73217.8-9/?18-0-..J/80:;5-2.39-,832412;23,6:323 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32L(X-,323-+.86,3232:I:03930-+,-./0123241281./8 0-8?/:+-+7:35+3JS42(0/<3883+6+,32L( Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003) *+,-./012039/ *+,-./01232 E+,38:I::38:/003-++3+412:;2</23+U2-+732 H1./8:;2</2=30412.8-9/3+,2-+732 J=10388$23:0/62/+0M:.17<26.M8/+,<26.174-:.323L E+,38:I::38:/003-++3+412:;2</23+U2-+732 J-+,6:02-1718S3238/03205-2.:19=30L H1./8:;2</2=30412.8-9/?18-0-.. E+,383+DQ ) T60:8-??42/-+,6:02-3+/5:/983,3 81./8360:8-?? E+,383+38,23-,3+I2.3:/.0-53<3418.+-+73+( H1./80-8?/:+-+7:35+36042/ E+,383+</2+176+73-,3+:/983,3<3418.+-+73+(,39172/4-:.34/.01232 B30016048I00-+7:2/03 H1./8:I::38:300-+7:?217+1:3 H1./80-8?/:+-+7:35+36042/ @0/08-7315324A2-+732?32-++<I7732 A.1+19-:.34/.01232 @./003-++03.0?32-++<I7732 64

X3,;41230/3+93273+32388/+/8I:3/5=512,/+,393++3:.38-73MA.1+19-:.317 +/06293::-7323::62:3+35/2-3232938819.1996+32M:A.329/+;-,3+0-4-:323 412:.S3883293,=3+:I+0-8./?/:-0300-8;9A0360412,2-+732:194A8732/5303+,230.8-9/1742390-,-7.8-9/?18-0-..(*605/87/5-+,-./012324120-8?/:+-+7:35+3=/2 9/+8/700-8726++30238/0-502)')-)<,?32:?3.0-5M,329/+/+0/2/0=AI/+,38 I2.3:/.0-53M8/5/+,38</2+176+73M3+?1:-0-5-++48I00-+7:2/03M8/5 /2<3-,:83,-7=30173+71,.1996+3A.1+19-<30-+732=AI0-8?/:+-+7:35+3(V3003 323+0I?3-+,-./01232:19=/2:0128-.=3093,,305--++83,+-+7:5-:190/803:19 $'#,$,4#>"')<<)-+,-./01232( N12;.199342390-83+:/983081./8:;2</2=30:-+,3.:<8-2,368-.3-+,-./0123+3 53-,M17:699320:/993+0-83+:;2</2=30:-+,3.:(a532-+,-./012-+,3.:323:6042/ 4A873+,3412938' *+,3.:532,- w J4/.0-:.532,-f9-+-969:532,-L y "%% J9/.:-969:532,-f9-+-969:532,-L K;726++8/7/5,-::3<3237+-+73+3<8-2,30:;?21,6:32068-.3:;2</2=30:./20M:19- +3:03197/+7.1<83:0-8./20153268-.3.8-9/5/2-/<832( Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme 28 *+,-./01291,3883+190/801532323071,03.:39?38?;3+153+42/T17T+3, 0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./0123+3:197S38,32:;2</2=301781./80-8?/:+-+7:35+332 2-.0-7+1.-=153,:/.</:320?;81./83,/0/M93+-+,-./0123+3:197S38,32.8-9/3+,2-+73232-:01272/,</:320?;+3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/8317781</83.8-9/91,38832( 28 Hentet fra foredraget Klima i endring. Hvor sårbart er Norge? Og hva med Voss som vintersportssted?. Materialet vil bli publisert i en rapport fra CICERO. 65

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@03-+T174S388:.23,1??0232:191403:0-<3723+:3,3192;,32M93+:./,3194/+730M <;,39/032-3801793++3:.38-7./+8-.35385U23:0120M/5=3+7-7/5-=5-8.3 192;,32,301??:0;2(V3++30I?3:.23,2/99321403:0537+30030M93+17:; <3<I7738:3(@0123:03-+:.23,=/217:;2/9930-+,-23.0353,;608A:3481,<A8732-4S12,32175/++ C& ( `+,32/8834S388:.23+032:1932<2/003233++C%TC#72/,32608A:3:,309-+,23 <81..604/8838832:03-+:?2/+7d:03-+<81..32:198A:+3242/4/:04S38817<I77321?? :03-+6232-<2/003:.2;+-+732J2/:5-4032L(*3+.38030-8438832./+17:;:01234S388?/20-8A:+317412;2:/.3:012:./,3(B3,<A217039?32/06232.8-9/4/.01232:19?;5-2.322-:-.1:.23,/5,3++30I?3+(@?3:-380-+03+:+3,<A217421:0:?23+7-+7-5/++4I8,3:?23..32./+412;2:/.3321:S1+-4S388:-,3217608A:3.2/40-73:.23,M17 :3-+=A:0170-,8-75;232,3293,,3+93:05/+8-730-,3+412,3++30I?3+:.23,( O+,2-+7-3.:0239+3,<A2J93,=3+:I+0-8-+03+:-03017423.53+:L17/+0/88 421:0$0-+3T?32-1,32-8A?30/55-+0323+<8-2,3293,5-.0-73.8-9/?/2/930323;83773 0-8726++4123+153212,+30562,32-+7/52-:-.1412:03-+T174S388:.23,( @+A:.23,32,3+0I?3+:.23,:192/9932=I??-7:0M174/23+412:+A:.23, 412;2:/.32;28-735/.632-+7/560:/003192;,3217:03+7+-+7/59/+7353-32(b;,3 9/032-3881793++3:.38-7:./,31??:0;2(@+A:.23,32,3+0I?3+:.23,:1917:; 03003:0./+.+I003:0-8.8-9/(N/23+412:+A:.23,/5=3+732/55-+032+3,<A217 039?32/062:5-+7+-+73219.2-+7%J421:0$0-+3T?32-1,32LM-9A0393,03223+717 5-+,412=18,:197-2726++8/7412:./581??<I77-+7( *0-843883:.23,4/23M<;,3:+A:.23,4/2317:03-+T174S388:.23,4/23M604A23:,30./208377-+7/5B12:.Y31817-:.*+:0-0600JBY*L:19<3+I00329/039/0-:. 91,38832-+7/503223+7=38+-+73+M<34/2-+717-++=3+0-+7/5324/2-+7:9/032-/83M 140342/.1996+3+317/+,2381./8.S3+03M:19726++8/7421604129-+7/5,30/8S3203:.23,4/23./20(V303241238A?-7607-00"&Z./20<8/,:19=153,:/.38-7,3..32F)#,<.'5),*U#=)#$)<,*1"-53F)#,<.'5),V]*1"-5<.'5*"2*Q-"(#M,32,3483:03/5,393:0:.23,4/28-73192;,3+3-8/+,30<34-++32:37JS42(P$24-*89L( CC C& *8A?30/54122-73;2=6+,23412;2:/.30023:01234S388:.23,-H13+17F/4S12,?;B12,TX3:08/+,30,/++38:3/5481,<A8732:1901.8-530/5"sC?32:1+32( CC Q92;,32./208/70412:.23,4/23'=00?'$$^^^(731+1273(+1$^3<:-03$2/:$5-3^32(=09 77

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:195-:32<3237+-+732412S12,0/?-.7$,//53,=A:0?8AI-+7 CZ (V-::3<3237+-+73+3,/++32726++8/74123+-++,38-+7-4-23321:S1+:2-:-.1.8/::32M42/]:5U20:012]0-8 ]8-03+]2-:-.1(N12=532./208/70.1996+332,308/7301532:-.0321532/+,38/23/8 -++3+=532321:S1+:2-:-.1.8/::3(N12.1996+3+B/++3:0/,-E.32:=6:7-2,3003 3.:39?385-:4A873+,3412,38-+7JS42Q.C)<<*[L' Tabell 6: Eksempel på andel dyrka mark etter erosjonsrisikoklasser på kommunenivå (Nannestad kommune) B/++3:0/,.1996+3 V3./2 E+,38/5010/8 H-03+321:S1+:2-:-.1 Z#\Z "&v c-,,38:321:s1+:2-:-.1 "##C[ &%v @012321:S1+:2-:-.1 "s&[\ &Cv @5U20:012321:S1+:2-:-.1 ")%## )&v B*WQ@,3..32-,/7198/7#%?21:3+0/5,I2./9/2.-B1273(N12,38-+7?32.1996+34-++3:?;*+032+3004124I8.3+3I&)-#B4#*"2*b#<"]*^4#&)-45]*;)5(.-&]* b==<.'5]*q)<)(.-&]*%-3q-%'5)<.2]*1"-53q-%'5)<.2]*f)#,+"<5*"2*c#,+"<5@ Cs P$24-* :a*6+,325-:323.:39?38?;=512,/+321:s1+:4/23+?23:3+0323:-./204129( Figur 20: Eksempel på kartblad over kartlagt erosjonsfare ved høstpløying K8/+03,3..317S12,/2<3-,-+7:?2/.:-:-5-+032=/85;230=/2:19/88323,3?;?3.0:012 <30I,+-+74124/23+412321:S1+(b/29/2.M:194A873/5=A:0?8AI-+7M3293260:/00 412321:S1+3++:06<<:19<8-2:0;3+,30-85;23+(aA:0?8AI-+7=/25U205/+8-7- 192;,32:19?21,6:3232.12+3883218S353.:032(R12+1718S353.:032607S12,3- )%%"&)M)v/5,I2./9/2.-B1273J198/7&M&9-88,3./2LJbI330(/8)%%)L( E+,383+=A:0?8AI-+7-++3+,3++30I?3S12,<26.<8323,6:32042/["MZv-"\[\0-8 CZ =00?'$$^^^(+-S1:(+1$K21,6.0-+41$W12,:91++$?21,{321:S1+{?8(=09B*WQ@<3+I00323+91,-4-:320 607/53/5,3+6+-532:3883S12,0/?:8-7+-+73+]`@HO](V3003323+39?-2-:.91,388</:320?;30:0120 /+0/88321:S1+:412:A.-`@E(c1,3883+32./8-<23207S3++19321:S1+:412:A.-B1273( Cs =00?'$$^^^(+-S1:(+1$N/.0/83532/+:3$S12,:91++$:0/0-:0-..$321:S1+(=09 79

CCM[v-)%%%(@0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<I2;J@@bL237-:023232,/0/238/03200-8 S12,/2<3-,-+7:?2/.:-:412,I2./9/2.+I00300-8.12+$18S353.:032M7S3++19 H/+,:<26.:6+,32:A.-+7/M17:.-8832,/9388194A873+,3?2/.:-:32'"L=A:0?8AI-+7M )L=A:0=/25-+7M&L/88S12,/2<3-,-+7195;23+J/23/8-:06<<195-+0323+LMCL,-23.03:;,,/23/817#L=A:0:;,,.12+/23/8(V3003323+605/87:6+,32:A.38:3M17 0/884-++3:-607/+7:?6+.030-..3?;.1996+3+-5;( C[ K8/+0-+7/5=A:0=5303J]=A:0:;,,.12+/23/8]L<83?;"\\%T0/88308/+:320:190-80/. 412;23,6:323321:S1+-8A?30/5=A:03+175-+0323+M53,/0,307-23072A+0?8/+03,3..3/88323,34A25-+0323+.19932J-0-883770-8;:.68837-:0A223/5./:0+-+7 177-S12,<26.323+9-+,23/2<3-,195;23+L(@3+323412:.+-+7/+0I,32,32-910/0 =A:0=5303-+13+0-84388324/.0-:../+%&)S12,/523++-+73+-8A?30/55-+0323+M :/993+8-7+3093,=A:0?8AI,9/2.JgI7/2,3+)%%&L(V3293,32-..3,3++30I?3 S12,/2<3-,-+73+0I,-793,=3+:I+0-82-:-.1412S12,321:S1+( O21:S1+:2-:-.1./20/32:5U20,30/8S320393,=3+:I+0-842/9:0-88-+7/572/,/5 2-:-.1(V3293,32,30-4A2:03197/+793:023835/+0;562,323/+,383+ S12,<26.:8/+,-++3+=5322-:-.1.8/::3(`01532,3./208/703192;,3+3M<8-2,30 +A,53+,-7;7SA2381./83562,32-+732</:320?;3+4123+.830607/53/59301,3+ <26.0/5B*WQ@(H1./80./+/+,38=A:0?8AI-+717?8/+0-+7/5=A:0=5303./+ -+,-.323-=5-8.3+72/,81./8?2/.:-:93,=3+:I+0-8S12,/2<3-,-+7-5-+032=/85;230./+412:032.3321:S1+:2-:-.13+( W12,:91++303293:060:/00412321:S1+-?32-1,3+938819=A:0-+7170-8+I00?8/+03,3..351.:3242/9(*+03+:+3,<A2+;2S12,/8-7732</217</..3+32421::3+ A.322-:-.13+412:0123S12,0/?(O+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+A5-8/80:;5-2.3-++?; 4/23+412S12,321:S1+(c-8,5U2:?32-1,32195-+0323+=/21403,3+3443.0/00383+ A532:0-S12,/<8-2932.19?/.017/+,383+153248/03/523++-+76+,32:+A:9380-+7 A.32 C\ (@196+,32:023.30153+412M32,30,32412,3.8-9/0-:.3412=18,3+319 =A:03+175-+0323+:19=/2:0A2:0-++5-2.+-+7?;194/+730/5S12,/523++-+7( R8-9/?/2/9302393,-++5-2.+-+7?;4/23+412321:S1+5-8,3293,5U23.+I00300-8 +3,<A217039?32/062M17,/:?3:-3803.:0239532,-32172/:.3:5-+7+-+732 =A:0$5-+032$0-,8-75;2M9323++7S3++19:+-00:532,-32J/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/73217 -+03+:-03017423.53+:/53.:0239+3,<A2L(* Potensiale for utvikling av ovenfra-og-ned risikobilder D*DOPQ=/2412:A.0?;;605-.8368-.3]B1273:./20]412;5-:3237-1+/81781./8 5/2-/:S1+-3+'.#>"'.<:/993+=3+7M</:320?;72/,/5:;2</2=30-++3+605/8703 +U2-+7::3.01232J-,323:0-843883S12,<26.175-+032062-:93MS4(P$24-*8YL(V300332 3+0-8+U29-+7:1917:;./+5U23+I00-74124239:0-88-+7/5237-1+/81781./8 5/2-/:S1+-+I002-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-84I:-:.3?21:3::32(c/+./+03+.3:373+ 8-.+3+,3-+,3.:32-+7/5153+42/T17T+3,-+,-./01232J]237-1+/83-+,-./01232]L -++3+=5320/52-:-.1192;,3+35-=/27S3++197;00153+412(Q53212,+30.1<8-+7 938819,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,317+I00.8-9/?;,2-55-85U23+I00-7<;,3'.#>"'.<,J412 604129-+7/5+/:S1+/830-80/.173+73172/4-:.?2-12-032-+7/50-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.L17 <"&.<,J./+.8/27SA23:-06/:S1+3+81./80-412=18,0-8/+,23,3832/58/+,30d 48 Kommunetall kan gis for kommuenr med mange driftsenheter innen korn/oljevekster. Ellers kan tall hentes ut for grupper av kommuner (regioner). 49 http://www.jordforsk.no/fagarealavr/erosjon.htm 80

.8/27SA2-+732:19-+3:03197/+7./+910-53230-881./830-80/.412;23,6:323,3+ 81./83:;2</2=303+L( @197S3++197/+73+153+4125-:32M.+I003:,3++/0628-73:;2</2=303+93,=3+:I+ 0-84I:-:.3?21:3::32:194819M:0129M68-.30I?32:.23,17321:S1+:37:032.00-8 81./8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,(*5;2:;2</2=30:91,3885-8,304A2:0/5/805U235-.0-7;.+I003,393:0.2-0-:.3.8-9/?/2/930323+3J+I00.8-9/?;,2-5L0-8=5320 2-:-.1192;,3JS24(0/<3883+6+,32L( Tabell 7: Forholdet mellom fysiske prosesser og klimapådriv forslag til indikatorer R/03712- N819 @0129 @.23, NI:-:.?21:3:: N819M 3853:83003 E.600 4819 @0129$ :0129481 @03-+T17 4S388:.23, *+03+:-030-3.:0239+3,<A2 N23.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 B3,<A25;2 B3,<A2 B3,<A2:19932 B3,<A2=A:0 B3,<A25-+032 B3,<A2:19:+A F39?32/062 X-+, N21:0$0-+3T,/732 F39?32/062=A:0M 5-+032 *-+03+:-030-3.:02395-+, k k k k k k k k k k k k @+A:.23, k k R5-..83-2 k k 3:.23, O21:S1+ O21:S1+ k k k k @?A2:9;83032,32+3:0195-=/271,0+1.726++8/70-8;7SA23.1<8-+7938819 5.2)'#*-$#$&"C$<5)17+I00.8-9/?;,2-5(V3+/:S1+/83./208377-+7:?2172/993+3 =/2-,3+0-4-:320J388320/2:-.03?;;-,3+0-4-:323L81./8:?3:-4-..3412=18,:19837732 726++8/7412,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3(V300332726++83773+,3412=18,:19-:37:385 -..35-83+,23:-303+,230.8-9/(A-.5)'/52-:-.15-8,32-910.6++33+,23:93, 30+I00.8-9/?;,2-5(X38;932.3?2-12-03232./208377-+7:?2172/993+3,3-,/7 93:0.2-0-:.3192;,3+3M17=3+,38:32./+/880-,1??:0;601532./208/703192;,32M <;,3-,/717-303+,230.8-9/(H-.3538/+0I,32?2172/993+3:194/+7179301,3 /09/032-/830./+,/++3726++8/7412605-.8-+7/5+I32-:-.1<-8,32J]B1273:./20]L( V30037S38,32,/412?21:3::3+3d4819?;3853:830032M:+A:.23,M:03-+T174S388:.23,M.5-..83-23:.23,17321:S1+(N12?21:3::3+3/.600481917:0129<8-2,30,32-910.6+968-7;4239:3003,3.2-0-:.3.8-9/?/2/930323+3J+I00.8-9/?;,2-5L:19 726++8/74123+153212,+30-+,3.:32-+7/5:;2</2=30-.1996+3+3( Utvikling av lokale trendfremskrivingskart F39/0-:.3]B1273:./20]</:320;153+412-+,3.:32-+75-8,3293,.6++360?3-.3.1996+3293,=AI2-:-.1-++3+68-.3./03712-32:;2</2=30(V3003:-328-.35388-03 19=512,/+.1996+3+3?2/.0-:.:./872-?3/+:;2</2=303+41219968-723,6:323,3++3M,/,3-..3:?3:-4-:3232B/"--.1996+3+3,3:;2</23192;,3+34-++3:( @/90-,-732,30.8/20/081./8341260:30+-+732412,30+I32-:-.1<-8,30-..332 0-8:023..38-78/70-++-153+42/T17T+3,T91,3883+(*4/:301<8-2,30,3293, +A,53+,-793,81./83562,32-+732/5;2:/.T5-2.+-+7:412=18,30:198-77320-8 N23.53+:/5 3.:02395-+, 81

726++412.8/::-4-:32-+73+M:/903+&.-,+)#,$'2/5,3+81./83:;2</2=303+( N239:0-88-+7/5:-06/:S1+3+81./8053,=S38?/5./204123.:39?383003291,388/5,30:19/88323,3327S1204123+.380039/-++3+,3+/:S1+/83./208377-+7:?2172/993+3+35+0153+412M7-230932?2/.0-:.23,:./?:19./+,/++3726++8/7412.8-9/0-8?/::30/23/8?8/+8377-+7174123.:39?38 <I773:/.:<3=/+,8-+7412,3+3+.3803.1996+3(Y26++8/730412605-.8-+7/5,3++30I?3],-)'5+-)(#&-$/$'2#&.-,]5-85U2381./83562,32-+73219.2-+7' T '6,,*&<$(.=75-$/f:195-8:-/09/+412:A.32;S6:0323J350(:6??8323L 3.:-:0323+,3+3,:./83203.8-9/:_3+/2-320-881./8.1+03.:0J:19:.-::320-./?-0038&(&Ld17 T <"&.<)*&<$(.)++)&,)-f</:320?;3.:-:0323+,3./208377-+7321737+3 :6??8323+,3./208377-+732/581./83+/062412=18,:19/+:8;:;5U23.2-0-:.3 412:;2</2=303+412,368-.34I:-:.3?21:3::3+3( c/+5-8,/4a2:017:;.6++34-++360-=5-8.3+72/,,3+4a2:03+3,:./832-+7//5 4/23+4124819M:.23,1:5(4/.0-:.5-2.32:/++:I+8-7(@/90-,-732,3032?;,3003 +-5;309/+5-8.6++3562,323#4()++)&,)'/53+,2-+7-2-:-.1<-8,3+3412=532./03712-4I:-:.3?21:3:::194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M53,/09/+:/9832 9/032-/830-43883:./20( Figur 21: Eksempel på 10 års flomsonekart for Elverum nord 50 #% H/:030+3,42/=00?'$$^^^(+53(+1$/,9-+$*9/73E2_=-53$)%Z$?8100"%{"(S?7 82

O.:-:0323+,3./209/032-/83-++3+,368-.3./208377-+7:?21:S3.03+35-:328-00 =512,/+],-)'5+-)(#&-$/$'2#&.-,)')]./+0/4129-?2/.:-:JS4(P$24-*:817P$24-* ::L(V3++30I?3./205-8:19:/70.6++3,/++3726++8/7412].8-9/0-8?/::30] /23/8?8/+8377-+7M<I773:/.:<3=/+,8-+717?2-12-032-+7<8(/412:0I2.-+7/5 <323,:./?:./?/:-0303+( Figur 22: Internettbasert kartverktøy for skredfare 51 #() B/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30 c3+:+/0628-7:;2</2=30:194a873/54i:-:.3?21:3::32-=153,:/.,23-32:3719 3.:0329=3+,38:32M19=/+,832+/0628-7:;2</2=30.+I00300-8<-1817-:.3?21:3::32 <;,33.:0239=3+,38:32179328/+7:19931772/,5-:33+,2-+73215320-,(c3+ 17:;=3232,305-.0-7;4;/5.8/20+;:-06/:S1+3+M:197-21::726++8/7412<3,23; :-+1319968-733443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732-412=18,0-8,3++/0628-73<-1817-:.3 :;2</2=303+(@195-:./8.1993+U29323-++?;M32,32-910.6++:./?3+19 +;:-06/:S1+3+9I3:5/.323412562,32-+7/5,3+<-1817-:.3:;2</2=303+3++ 0-843883032412,3+4I:-:.3+/0628-73:;2</2=303+(R6++:./?3+19;2:/.T5-2.+-+7 +;2,307S38,323443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+7323217:;,;28-7323+;2,307S38,32,3+ <-1817-:.3:;2</2=303+( b-1817-:.:;2</2=30,23-32:3719=51260:/00a.1:i:03932324123+,2-+732:19 4A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(O.:39?832?;A.1:I:0393+,2-+732./+5U23' T 0/?/5/2032 T 30/<832-+7/5+I3/2032 T 3+,2-+7/560<23,38:3:9A+:032412/2032 T 3+,2-+7/5<-101?32 51 Statens kartverk/arealis 83

T 0/?/5<-1817-:.9/+7418, g.1:i:0393+,2-+7325-8<8(/(3+,23968-7=303+3412;+i003<-1817-:.3 +/06223::62:32-+U2-+7::/993+=3+7(*B12735-8,3003:U28-7194/003S12,<26.M :.17<26.M9/2-+1??,2300M9/2-+34-:.32-32175-.0-73,3832/523-:38-530(N12 S12,<26.305-83+,2-+73+3.1993:194A873/53+,23053.:0:3:1+717 +3,<A2:9A+:032M93+17:;1??<819:02-+7/5+I3:./,3,I2(N-:.3M-+.86,3209/2-+ 1??,2300M5-8.6++3?;5-2.3:/53+,2/=/5039?32/062(@.17<26.5-81??8353 3+,2-+732:194A873/54123.:39?383+,2/:.17:723+:32M<-101?3217 53.:0412=18,M93+17:;3+,2-+7-5-+032039?32/062M17,3293,968-7=303+3412; 605-++30A99325-+032:0-,(P3-:38-5305-8.6++31??83533+,2-+732-,3 ]1??83538:3:.5/8-0303+3]+U2-+73+32/5=3+7-7/5M4123.:39?3853,/05-.0-73.5/8-03032-.680628/+,:./?307;20/?0:194A873/57S3+721-+7( Kartlegging og overvåking av biologisk mangfold V30324A2:0,3:-:03;23+330/<8320932194/003+,3+/:S1+/83./208377-+7:T17 15325;.-+7:?2172/9:1919=/+,832,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(V3093:0:3+02/83?2172/993032]?2172/941203223:02-:.+/06215325;.-+7] #) (K2172/9930<83 30/<8320-"\\%17</:3232:37?;9;8-+732/58640MS12,M?8/+03217,I2-:S64/:03 15325;.-+7:192;,32M:/909;8-+732/5412623+:+-+7:<38/:0+-+732-8/+,:,3..3+,3 +300532.(O00/5039/3+3323443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732-412=18,0-8,30<-1817-:.3 9/+7418,30JN239:0/,948)%%&L( *)%%&<83/2<3-,3093,+/06215325;.-+7:0I2.30I00328-73237S3++1930/<832-+7/5 30+/:S1+/80?2172/9412./208377-+71715325;.-+7/5<-1817-:.9/+7418, #& ( K2172/9930:./85/230-8)%%s(@I5,3?/20393+0=/27;00:/993+412<3,23; :/912,+3/88./208377-+71715325;.-+7:193223835/+0412<-1817-:.9/+7418, 17;30/<8323+I3/.0-5-03032,32.6++:./?:726++8/73032412,;28-7(NA2:03,38/5?2172/9?32-1,3+5-8<8-5-30./208377-+7M93+:15325;.-+75-8.1993932-41.6: -:-:03,38/5?32-1,3+(V3003?2172/99304/5+325-,3233++?2172/9930412 03223:02-:.+/06215325;.-+7M17230032:37-++9109/2-+3:;538:1903223:02-:.3 412=18,( @193+,38/5/2<3-,3093,+/06215325;.-+7M=/2V-23.012/030412+/0624125/80+-+7 =/2605-.83030:30093,+A..38-+,-./01232:19:./84/+731?? A.1:I:0393+,2-+732(*+,-./0123+3230032:37-++9103+23..3;2:/.T 5-2.+-+7:412=18,,323443.03+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+732</2332h+/53+8/+723..3 412=18,JS40/<3883+6+,32L( 52 Se http://www.naturforvaltning.no/wbch3.exe?p=1838. I tillegg fins det andre og mer avgrensede overvåkingsprogrammer, som tilstandsovervåking og resultatkontroll i jordbrukets kulturlandskap etablert i 1999 (http://www.nijos.no/produktinfo/landskap/prod_3q.htm) og langtidsovervåkningen på innvandrende laks etablert i 1993. 53 Se http://www.naturforvaltning.no/wbch3.exe?d=6585&toppgiff=tema 84

Tabell 8: Indikatorer for overvåking av det biologiske mangfoldet (Direktoratet for naturforvaltning) 54 FI?3-+,-./012 *+,-./012 K;5-2.+-+7 T Q532<3-0-+7/58/5-N-++9/2. T E23/8-++723?:42-3192;,32 T `00/./5605/87039/2-+3<3:0/+,32 T @?23,+-+7/58/.:3?/2/:-003+YI21,/_0I86::/8/2-: F-8:0/+, T g.1817-:.-+42/:026.062?;8/+,:./?:+-5; T @.173+3::/993+:30+-+7 T F-8</.37/+7/5?8/+032?;726++/5:62+3,<A2 T O+,2-+7-91:3T178/5:/946++?;726++/53+,230.8-9/ T O+,2-+732-53.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 T O77:./884120I++-+7=1:,53274/8. T `05-.8-+7-<3:0/+,3+3/5023..4678 T E+,385-.0-73192;,32<32A20/5-++723? T *++723?-5-8823-+192;,32 T *++723?-3853,380/ T B/:S1+/80?2-12-03203.680628/+,:./?:192;,32 T H/+,:./?:,-532:-030-S12,<26.:8/+,:./?30 T b3:0/+,::-06/:s1+3+412605/8703/2032j4s388235m:0123215,i2m8/.:m,53277;:m ;.322-.:3M4-23:SA4678/2032L P3:?1+: T E23/8532+3192;,32412,380?;S12,<26.:237-1+32 T E23/8532+3192;,32412,380?;53730/:S1+::1+32 N12023/5-+,-./0123+35-:0-0/<3883+153232,307S1203.:?8-:-00.1<8-+7938819.8-9/3+,2-+73217A.1:I:0393+,2-+732' T O+,2-+732-53.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 T O+,2-+7-91:3T178/5:/946++?;726++/53+,230.8-9/ T b3:0/+,::-06/:s1+3+412605/8703/2032 Endringer i vekstsesong F)&#,#)#"'2)'#*<)'25)323+-+,-./012?;/0,30:.S323+,2-+732-?8/+03T17,I238-530.+I00300-83+,2-+732-.8-9/30(X3.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3=/2:012<30I,+-+7 412=5-8.3?8/+03/2032:1902-53:-+/0623+(X-,3235-80-87/+73+?;?8/+0353.:032 =/<30I,+-+741260<23,38:3+/5,I23/2032(X3.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,332:;83,3:3+ /57SA23+,3-+,-./012?;=5-8.3+3443.0.8-9/3+,2-+73+35-8=/?;,30<-1817-:.3 9/+7418,30( @19/88323,3?;?3.05305-8/+709-+,2319.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732412 <-1817-:.3?21:3::323++0-8438830324124I:-:.3?21:3::32(V3++332.S3++38:3+32 607/+7:?6+.030412?21:S3.030iN3+1817-:193+-+,-./012?;3443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732]JK=3+1D8-9LM4-+/+:-320/5B1273:412:.+-+7:02;,:-00?2172/9 R8-9/O443.032 ## (c;83093,?21:s3.03032;a.3.6++:./?3+19:/993+=3+732 938819.8-9/3+,2-+73217?32-1,-:.3412/+,2-+732=1:?8/+03217,I2(*?21:S3.030 9;8329/+<8/+0/++30:0/200-,:?6+.04125;23+M9-,0:19932M17=A:03+53,;.19<-+323:/0388-00,/0/93,1<:325/:S1+32-4380 #Z (V304A2:0323:680/03042/ 54 Se www.dirnat.no/wbch3.exe?p=2598 55 Se http://www.itek.norut.no/projects/phenology/ 56 Fra satellittbilder måles forholdet mellom refleksjon i rødt og nærinfrarødt. Når dette forholdet overstiger en grenseverdi brukes det som mål på når vekstsesongen starter. Grenseverdien 85

?21:S3.030323+4239:0-88-+7/53+,2-+732-:0/200-,:?6+.04125;217=A:017,3293,53.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3(E54-7623+6+,32:325-/083+7,3+?; 53.:0:3:1+73+=/2A.0-:;;:--=3838/+,30(R/20305-:32/053.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 =/2A.093,1532C6.328/+7:.I:03+/5B12731??0-8H14103+42/"\[)0-8"\\\( Y3+32380=/253.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3A.0-=3838/+,30M93+-+13+4S388192;,32=/2 4/.0-:.53.:0:3:1+73+<8-00.120323(F-,:?6+.030412:0/2017:8600?;53.:0:3:1+73+ -@./+,-+/5-/=/25U209;8053,=S38?/5:/0388-0032:19-+,-23.039;832.81214I88-++=18,-53730/:S1+3+(V30?;7;2412:.+-+7:19:/993+8-7+32 :/0388-00,/0/1953.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3M171<:325/:S1+32/5/+.19:017/523-:3 412023..467832M0-,:?6+.0412<819:02-+7M426.091,+-+717/+,23:3:1+793::-73 5/2-/:S1+32-+/0623+(V305-87-<3,23.6++:./?19=5/53.0:3:1+73+:83+7,35-8.6++3<30I412605-.8-+7:023..-+/0623+53,3+,230.8-9/(YS3++1930194/003+,3 :/9/2<3-,32,30:/9830-++,/0/42/3+23..39;83:0/:S1+32 #s (V3032,3293,-?2-+:-??30968-7;4239:./443237-1+/83=-:012-:.3,/0/193+,2-+732-53.:0:3:1+73+( Figur 23 Endringer i vekstsesongens lengde i løpet av perioden 1982 til 1999 (Høgda mfl 2001) 58 Endringer i arter J"#)3*"2*<./#.(+4'')')=/217:;3+,230:37,3+:-:030-;2:?32-1,3+(c1:32178/5 324A8:1993412.8-9/3+,2-+732M,351.:32+;2,303246.0-7M177;2-],5/83]+;2,30320A20(V3./+51.:353,8/5323039?32/062323++<819:032?8/+032(V-::3 kalibreres med målinger av bladstørrelse på bjørkeløv. Starten på vekstsesongen blir her satt til det tidspunktet bjørkeløvet har størrelse som museøre (Kjell Arild Høgda, pers.med). 57 Se kart lagt ut på www.itek.norut.no/projects/phenology/no. 58 Se også www.dirnat.no/wbch3.exe?p=2699 86

127/+-:93726??3+3=/2,3241283+72353.:0?32-1,33++5/+8-73?8/+032(@U28-77-2 8/+7M9-8,=A:093,S35+8-7237+71,353.:0412=18,41291:3(R/20306+,32JP$24-* :YL5-:32/091:3,3..30=/2A.0:;;:-1532=3838/+,30-237-:0232-+7:?32-1,3+( b8;4/2735-:32=512:012/+,38/5,35/+8-7391:3/203+3:19=/2a.0-93+7,3m 93+:2A,4/2735-:32=512:012/+,38/5,35/+8-7391:3/203+3:19,30=/2<8-00 9-+,23/5938819,301237-:0232-+7:26+,3+3(*192;,32,32./.3,-/72/9930=/2 <;,32A,17<8;438032M=/2+13+/2032A.0-93+7,3M93+:/+,23=/27;000-8</.3(* 15325;.-+7:192;,3+3-<SA2.3:.17J7683:-2.832?;./2030L=/29/+17:;237-:02320 8/5?;<SA2.3:0/9932(a3232,30237-:02320/0:/993+:30+-+73+/58/5/2032=/2 3+,230:37-,3+:/993?32-1,3+(V3932+12,8-738/5/203+3=/27;000-8</.3M :/90-,-7:19932:A28-73/2032=/2A.0-93+7,3(V3003018.3::19/0,3+ ]+12,8-73]8/5+/0623+<8-2023+7083+723+12,1532(N2/B3,328/+,32,3017:;.S3+0 /048323:6<021?-:.35/293.2353+,3/2032=/2A.0-93+7,31760<23,38:3M93+: 932+12,8-73/20327;20-8</.3Jg.8/+,948)%%"L( O+,230:/993+:30+-+7/58/5?;<SA2.3:0/9932 E+,38/5,5/+8-7391:3/203+3:19=/2%&,-93+7,3 E+,38/55/+8-7391:3/203+3:19-)54#)-,-93+7,3 ;+63/&<=>*E'5-$'2*$*+"-)&"(#,*./*("#)-*()<<"(*,"*-)2$#,-)-$'2#-4'5)-*()5*Z37-#* ()<<"(-"(*=7*899a3,.<<),*Uc&<.'5*(+<*:aa8V?@ * O+23..3/2032<8-215325;.30+/:S1+/80(b3:0/+,::5-+7+-+73+3321403:023:680/0/5 3+23..3?;5-2.+-+7:4/.01232M,32.8-9/3+,2-+732-++7;2:19h+4/.012:19=38832 -..3/880-,32,3+60:8/7:7-53+,34/.0123+(V303293,/+,2312,:5U205/+:.38-7; :-+1373+32380193443.03+/5.8-9/3+,2-+732?;<3:0/+,:605-.8-+73+412 3+.380/2032(X/+:.38-7=30:72/,3+A.32I00328-7323199/+17:;A+:.32;:-+13 73+32380193443.03+3-412=18,0-8,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(B13+/20325-8A.3M 59 Se også www.dirnat.no/wbch3.exe?p=2697 87

88 /+,235-87;+3,(*0-88377.19932,30/0?103+:-38833443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732-9/+730-84388325-8./9648323:/53443.032/5/+,23?;5-2.+-+7:4/.01232(*412:8/730 0-8<-19/+7418,:-+,-./0123242/V-23.012/030412+/0624125/80+-+7JVBL32,300/00 93,237-:0232-+732412""/2032JS4Q.C)<<*`L(E5,-::332,30</23_'/20T96+.3+T,32<3:0/+,:605-.8-+73+.+I003:3.:?8-:-000-8.8-9/3+,2-+732(O+373+2/??12019 B1273:+/:S1+/84678T41::3./883+T?23:3+0320?;+300:-,3+30-8VB.+I0032 1<:3253203<3:0/+,:3+,2-+7320-8.8-9/3+,2-+732 Z% (*,3+:-:032/??1203+42/?2172/993041203223:02-:.+/06215325;.-+7<8-2:?A2:9;83019=3..30-,:?6+.0M <8/+0/++304124863:+/??32M.1<8300-8.8-9/3+,2-+732( V30<A217:;+35+3:/0.8-9/3+,2-+732./+7-A.0:;2</2=3093,=3+:I+0-8+"<&#* B)<#)M:1923:680/0/53+,2-+732-<-1817-:.3?21:3::32(O+/5,3932/85128-7317 194/003+,3=38:33443.03+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+73232A.0=I??-7=301773172/4-:. 60<23,38:3/553.012<;2+3:9-00:1993:I.,19932,32:9-0037;25-/ 5320:127/+-:932JE6+/+)%%"L(O24/2-+73+393,:?23,+-+7/548;00-B1273M601532,302/,-:S1+3883.S32+3192;,3+3f,5:(@A28/+,30$X3:08/+,30f17,3+?/2/883883 A.+-+73+-0-8,38:/85128-73:I.,19:0-8438832:194A873/515324A2-+7/5 b1238-/:9-0035-/,3++3/203+m:i+8-77sa2,3003/:?3.030(y81</80:329/+17:;412 3.:39?38?21<8393293,:?23,+-+7/59/8/2-/(c3,4;6++0/.32;2:/.T 5-2.+-+7:412=18,30938819.8-9/3+,2-+73217=38:30-8:0/+,,32-910:5U20.19?83.:0M17,3293,:5U206:-..320(V305-8,3293,5U235/+:.38-7;-+.86,323,3003/:?3.030/5?103+:-388:;2</2=30-,3++32/??1203+( Effektvurderinger YS3++197/+73+15325-:32.6++:./?::0/06:+;2,307S38,325.2)'#*,$<#,.'5- +/0623+412039/:19./+5U2323835/+03-3+.8-9/:/993+=3+7(V3,/0/5-=/2 190/801532:-32-9-,8320-,-+73+0-+719)++)&,)')/5968-73.8-9/3+,2-+732(V3 -+,-./0123+35-=/25-:00-8153232932;412:0;:19-+,-./01232412&<$(.)'5-$'2)- 3++-+,-./01232:19:-32+13932153212,+3019%&"#6#,)()++)&,)-*/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(*++0-89/+=/24;00423993273+32388.6++:./?190-8:0/+,3+- +/0623+1719,3:/983,3A.1:I:0393443.03+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+73232,30,32412 5/+:.38-7;023..3423971,3-+,-./01232?;192;,30+/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30( V30+U293:035-.1993232;<26.33+,2-+7/5/)&#,#)#"'2:193+-+,-./012?;/0,30)-A.1:I:0393443.032JS4P$24-*:XL(*K=3+1D8-9?21:S3.030?8/+8377329/+;.19<-+32337+3,/0/93,,/0/42/P37D8-9M:8-./09/+17:;:./8.6++38/73./204239:0-88-+732/5968-733+,2-+732-42390-,3+/553.:0:3:1+73+:194A873/5 303+,230.8-9/(X-.S3++32-..30-8190-8:5/23+,3/2<3-,7SA23:-412=18,0-8+13+ /5,3/+,23-+,-./0123+3:19V-23.012/030412+/0624125/80+-+71?32323293,412 15325;.-+7/5,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30JS4Q.C)<<*`L( Nedenfra-og-opp vurderinger Y-00/0,3032:;5/+:.38-7;?3.3?;23835/+031771,3-+,-./01232:19./+:-+13 73+3238019.8-9/3443.032-412=18,0-8<-1817-:.9/+7418,M5-8,305U23 0-8:5/23+,35/+:.38-7;?3.3?;9;032;4;423923835/+03<"&.<)+3,3+42/T17T1?? -+,-./01232?;192;,30+/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(O+968-7=30:198-.3538 4239:0;2:1923835/+0+;2,307S38,32;605-.83,3++30I?3+-+,-./0123232,30 60 http://www.dirnat.no/wbch3.exe?ce=17465

/2<3-,30:19:-,3+"\\\=/2?;7;00-.1996+3+393,./208377-+7/5,30 <-1817-:.39/+7418,30( *S/+6/2"\\\7/V-23.012/030412+/0624125/80+-+7603+=;+,<1.412;=S38?3.1996+3+3-/2<3-,3093,./208377-+7/5,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30 Z" (V30<8-2 5-,323:0-800-82;,-7=30300-8:.6,,?;.2#%(%%%0-830605/87.1996+32=5320;2( R/208377-+7:/2<3-,303203+.08/701???;4A873+,39;03'J"LQ??:0/20'J)LK18-0-:. <3=/+,8-+7dJ&LR/208377-+717532,:300-+7dJCLK18-0-:.<3=/+,8-+7d17J#L N125/80+-+717-+037232-+7-.1996+/83?8/+32(a;+,<1.3+190/832=153,:/.38-7?6+.0J&L17,/93,=153,53.0?;./208377-+7/5,305-./+./883,3+]/$<<)]17 ]:S38,+3]+/0623+M2-.0-7+1.:6??832093,./208377-+7/53+.380338393+032-.680628/+,:./?30.+I00300-8,30=-:012-:.3S12,<26.:8/+,:./?30J:8;0033+732M :8;0039I2321:5L(V30325-,3238/7053.0?;./208377-+7:19-++:?-880-8.-).<=<.'<)22$'2)'93,0/+.3?;/0.1996+3+:./8/5:300381./83532+3192;,32 93,68-.72/,32-+7/5/)-'(*8A?30/5)%%&=/2_/C%%.1996+324;000-8:.6,,17 32-7/+793,./208377-+7 Z) ( N-7623+6+,325-:32303.:39?38?;81./83./208/730?;726++8/7/5237-:0232-+732 /5,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(X3+038-7./+,3++30I?3+./2017:;<26.3:0-881./83 562,32-+732/5=5-8.3.1+:3.53+:32.8-9/3+,2-+732./+=/-412=18,0-8,30 <-1817-:.39/+7418,30M93+,/9;.6++:./?3+19.2-+7;2:/.T5-2.+-+7:412=18, :0I2.3:53:3+08-7(X-,32332,303+:012412,3819,3041238-7732:;./803,-7-0/80 9/2.:8/7:./20JVcRL(@8-.3./203230/57SA23+,3726++8/7412?;3+.1:0+/,:3443.0-59;03;?21,6:323,3++30I?3+./20 Z& ( 61 DN-håndbok nr 13-1999, lagt ut på www.naturforvaltning.no/temasider/ 62 Se http://www.dirnat.no/wbch3.exe?p=2634. 63 Status mhp dekning for utarbeidelse av DMK er vist på http://www.nijos.no/produktinfo/markslag/statuskart_dmk.htm. 89

Figur 25 Eksempel på lokalt biomangfoldskart 64 #(& @/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8.8-9/?18-0-.. Næringsvirksomhet b/:320?;<3237+-+732604a20/5@0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<i2;-412<-+,38:393, +/:S1+/8237+:./?30=/25--0/<3883+6+,32237+30603+#7-C.-B),#$'5)&#41268-.3 0I?32'0-$'2#/$-&#"(B),M17:194239.1993253,;:3:/983,35-$+,#$'',)&,)- 412=532+U2-+7-412=18,0-8+U2-+73+::/983,360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(*+,3.:3+ =/2<3+35+38:3+.21+32?3201++60:8-??(K13+73032;4;3+-+,-./012?; 5-2.:19=303+3:A.1+19-:.3<U2335+30-8;0;833+42390-,-7A.+-+7-9-8SA/57-4032?;60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(V30325-.0-7;932.3:37/05-$&&)=/2 0/0093,1443+08-75-2.:19=30-1532:-.03+6+,32412,-<3723?30],2-40:-++03.0]-..3 =/2:/99393+-+74121443+08-75-2.:19=30 Z# (E50/<3883+6+,32:325-/0,3032 02/+:?120+U2-+73+M,3+18S3T177/::238/032033+327-?21,6.:S1+3+M,3832/5 -+,6:02-3+17?2-9U2+U2-+73+3:194/883260:1993:0:;2</23( 64 Hentet fra http://www.nijos.no/produktinfo/landskap/prod_biol_mf_fase1.htm. 65 I denne sammenhengen består offentlig virksomhet av kommunal vannforsyning, kloakk og renovasjon, statlig administrasjon og forsvar, undervisning og kommunal administrasjon 90

Tabell 9 En rangering av ulike sektorers økonomiske bæreevne til å tåle klimaavgifter og/eller gjennomføre egne klimatiltak ( lavest indeks indikerer mest sårbare næringer) Næring Sektor Driftsresultat (mill kr) 66 CO 2 -ekv. (1000 tonn) Indeks (kr/tonn) Andel sysselsetting Jernbane og sporvei transport -1 310 59 090-22,17 0,9 % Olje- og gassrel. tjenester energiproduksjon -172 400 074-0,43 3,8 % Produksjon av fjernvarme energiproduksjon -50 274 620-0,18 2,4 % Lufttransport transport -250 1 458 103-0,17 0,2 % Utenriks sjøfart transport 3 693 13 637 413 0,27 6,6 % Kjemiske råvarer industri 1 495 4 868 362 0,31 0,3 % Metallindustri industri 2 125 5 025 125 0,42 2,3 % Oljeraff., kjemisk og mineralsk ind. energiproduksjon 2 529 4 017 618 0,63 0,6 % Drikkevarer og tobakk vareproduksjon 57 85 386 0,67 0,7 % Trelast- og trevareindustri industri 478 398 322 1,20 0,2 % Post og telekommunikasjon transport 481 357 227 1,35 1,6 % Annen landtransport transport 4 484 3 184 028 1,41 10,2 % Fiske og fangst primærnæring 2 170 1 417 058 1,53 2,7 % Treforedling industri 1 018 611 067 1,67 0,4 % Jordbruk, jakt og viltstell primærnæring 11 349 5 546 648 2,05 0,4 % Innenriks sjøfart transport 3 776 1 484 281 2,54 3,0 % Bergverksdrift industri 548 177 500 3,09 0,4 % Fisk og fiskevarer primærnæring 818 213 884 3,82 0,8 % Utvinning av råolje og naturgass energiproduksjon 82 816 12 084 156 6,85 0,7 % Tjenester tilknyttet transport transport 1 683 190 511 8,84 0,7 % Møbelindustri og annen industri vareproduksjon 665 56 715 11,72 0,8 % Kjøtt, kjøttvarer og meierivarer næringsmiddelindustri 1 243 96 011 12,95 1,0 % Andre næringsmidler næringsmiddelindustri 2 144 162 968 13,15 1,1 % Bygge- og anleggsvirksomhet vareproduksjon 10 423 733 571 14,21 2,0 % Tekstil, bekledning og skotøy vareproduksjon 499 26 147 19,07 0,0 % Verkstedindustri industri 3 919 199 704 19,62 0,8 % Skipsbygging industri 769 26 005 29,56 0,1 % Andre sosiale og personlige tjenester tjenesteyting 7 438 245 396 30,31 0,7 % Hotell- og restaurantvirksomhet tjenesteyting 1 773 49 836 35,57 0,3 % Varehandel, rep. av kjøretøyer mv. tjenesteyting 19 104 448 240 42,62 0,4 % Forlag og grafisk industri industri 2 322 45 068 51,53 0,4 % Oljeplattformer energiproduksjon 919 14 834 61,92 1,4 % Skogbruk primærnæring 3 442 53 521 64,32 0,5 % Fiskeoppdrett primærnæring 1 400 11 777 118,91 0,8 % Forretningsmessig tjenesteyting tjenesteyting 18 119 140 585 128,88 2,2 % Finansiell tjenesteyting tjenesteyting 21 942 153 889 142,58 0,8 % Prod. og omsetning av elektrisitet energiproduksjon 8 382 35 215 238,01 13,8 % Rørtransport transport 9 414 14 102 667,59 3,8 % Sum/snitt 231 652 58 004 057 3,99 69,5 % V3003323+2/+732-+7:19327S1206042/=3+:I+300-8,3:/983,360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::3217h+0I?35-2.39-,,38'/57-40?;60:8-??(F-8:5/23+,3562,32-+732.6++39/+03+.3:37-412=18,0-8/+,235-2.39-,832M353+06380932:/993+:/003 ]5-2.39-,,38?/..32]38832</23-412=18,0-860:8-??/5h+0I?3.8-9/7/::J412 3.:39?38DQ ) L(*9/+738/5932604A28-73562,32-+7320/25-5-,32393,1::,3 66 Gjennomsnitt for perioden 1991-2000. 91

./03712-3+35-2.:19=3032:19-0/<3883+15324239:0;2:1993:0:;2</231532412.8-9/?18-0-:.35-2.39-,832J-23/8-0303+60:8-??:/57-4032LM/80:;' Transport 67 : Sjøfart, lufttransport, buss og drosje Energiproduksjon: produksjon av fjernvarme, olje- og gass. *+,6:02-'Kjemiske råvarer, metallindustri, trelastrelatert industri, drikkevarer og tobakk. Primærnæring: saltvannsfiske, jordbruk 68 En lokal vurdering av sårbarhet når det gjelder både klimapolitikk og klimaendringer vil da være å få frem andelen sysselsatte i de antatt mest sårbare næringene, eventuelt supplert med en mer detaljert vurdering av sårbarheten i de samme næringene. Kommunevis oversikt publiseres i forbindelse med folke- og boligtellingen utført av Statistisk sentralbyrå 69. Poenget er å få frem om man lokalt har et høyere innslag av risikonæringer enn det som er på nasjonalt nivå. Tabell 10 Andel sysselsatte innen ulike næringer, eksempel for Sogndal (2001) Næringer Norge Sogndal Forskjell Sårbare næringer Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske 4,1 % 6,1 % 48,8 % Utvinning av råolje og naturgass, industri og bergverksdrift 14,3 % 14,3 % 0,0 % Transport og kommunikasjon 7,3 % 7,3 % 0,0 % Andre næringer 38,0 % 37,9 % -0,3 % Tabellen over viser at Sogndal er noe mer utsatt enn landsgjennomsnittet på grunn av det relativt store innslaget av sysselsatte innen jord- og skogbruk. Problemet med statistikken vist over er imidlertid at den ikke er nok finmasket i forhold til de vurderingene og konklusjonene vi kom frem til i Q.C)<<*9. Men med mindre det gjøres lokale vurderinger med innsamling av data lokalt er dette det beste vi har. Infrastruktur B;2,307S38,32$'+-.#,-4&,4-32,3093:023835/+0;0/412:3702/+:?120:3.0123+( F/<3883+6+,325-:32=5-8.302/+:?120412932:193293:0]./2<1+-+03+:-53]- <30I,+-+73+:0A2:060:8-???32604A2002/+:?120/2<3-,(N12=)-#"'02/+:?1205-8,30,/ 5U2302/+:?120?;:SAM-86401793,?32:1+<-8:193293:060:/00(c-+:060:/0032 +/0628-7+1.02/+:?120?;:.-++32M:19-/88=153,:/.32383.02-4-:320-B1273( F2/+:?12093,<6::.19932-3+938819:0-88-+7(N122"5#02/+:?1205-8,305U23 48I1702/+:?120?;53-:193293:0?21<839/0-:.M93+:02/+:?120?;:SA=/2,3 8/53:0360:8-??3+3( *3+81./8:;2</2=30:562,32-+79;?13+7305U23;4;423919.1+:3.53+:3+3 81./80:.-8832:3753:3+08-742/,30:197S38,324128/+,30:3006+,32300(j+9;03; 4;4239,3003?;32;:/993+8-7+302/+:?120<26.3+81./8093,+/:S1+/83 7S3++19:+-00(O081./8:/946++93,93260:02/.0<26./5?32:1+02/+:?120?;:SA17 67 Vi har valgt å se bort fra jernbane. Utslippene er her helt marginale, og grunnen til at jernbane fremstår som så sårbar er de meget store driftsunderskuddene. 68 Om vi tar med utslipp av metan vil jordbruket få indeksen 1 955 kr/tonn utslipp av CO 2 - ekvivalenter; med andre ord omtrent like sårbar som sjøfarten er for avgifter på CO 2. 69 Se www.ssb.no/emner/02/01/fobsysut/tab-2003-01-16-11.html. 92

71,:02/+:?120?;8/+,5-84123.:39?385U23932:;2</2412DQ ) T/57-40323++30 81./8:/946++93,3+238/0-50:012/+,38?32:1+02/+:?12093,0171793:03?/203+ /571,:02/+:?1203+-++1760/581./8:/946++3093,<;0( Tabell 11 Utslipp av karbondioksid fra transport etter utført transportarbeid (Holtskog og Rypdal 1997) F2/+:?1209-,,38 DQ ) J7$?32:1+.9L E+,38?32:1+02/+:?120 F2/+:?1209-,,38 DQ ) J7$01++.9L E+,38 71,:02/+:?120 a620-7<;01(8( %MZ& 0,5 % N8I )M)\ 0,2 % N8I %M)% 7,3 % X/23$.19<-<-832 "MCs 12,5 % a620-7260/ %M") 0,4 % H/:03<-832 %M)% 18,7 % K32:1+<-8 %M"" 82,5 % @?3:-/8<-832 %M"& 9,1 % c1012:i..38 %M%\ 1,4 % FA228/:0:.-? %M%s 10,9 % P603<-8 %M%[ 8,0 % F/+.$.19<-:.-? %M%) 48,6 % B;32,30-..3/880-,968-7;4239:./44381./8302/+:?120,/0/:19./+ :/993+8-7+3:93,+/:S1+/83:+-00(O+03+9;9/+81./807S3++194A2381./83 23-:35/+36+,32:A.38:32M=3+03-++02/+:?120,/0/42//.0638832603:38:./?M388329/+ 9;7SA23+13+/8032+/0-53562,32-+732( O+/8032+/0-50-8+U29-+732;<26.3.1996+35-:360:8-??:,/0/42/3+ +300./8.68/012605-.830/5@0/03+:412623+:+-+7:0-8:I+J@NFL</:320?;,/0/42/ @0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<I2; s% (`+,32325-:0303.:39?38,325-=/2:/993+8-7+30 @17+,/8.1996+393,8/+,:7S3++19:+-0030( Tabell 12 Utslipp av klimagasser fra transport per person for Norge (1999) og Sogndal (2000), tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter per person og år Transporttype Norge Sogndal Forskjell Veitrafikk Person- og varebiler 1,55 2,08 34 % Lastebiler og busser 0,60 0,82 36 % Moped og MC 0,02 0,02-6 % Skip og fiskefartøy 0,08 0,14 61 % Fly 0,04 0,11 162 % Andre mobile kilder 0,25 0,28 12 % F/<3883+15327-2-++02I../5@17+,/8:193+932:;2</2.1996+33++ 8/+,:7S3++19:+-0030+;2,307S38,32.1+:3.53+:3241202/+:?120/53+03+.0 :-06/:S1+93,:023+7323.8-9/?18-0-:.30-80/.J-?2/.:-:'/57-4032?;60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32L(V3032-9-,8320-,48323:5/.=303293,,3++39301,3+M:1917:; -886:02323:93,3.:39?38301532( N12,304A2:033260:8-??42/+<6,-.'#="-,</230/0093,-,30-8438832,3248I?8/::3+ <34-++32:37-++3+412.1996+3723+:3+M17,/<3237+30:1960:8-??42/:/908-73 48I<353738:32938819</..3+-5;17"%%93032:=AI,3(V30037SA2/060:8-??42/?32:1+02/+:?12093,48I3273+32380:032.06+,323:0-9320(*?2/.:-:4/8832,3++3 0I?3+60:8-??603+19:I:0393093,6++0/./54125320:.1996+3241248I?8/::32M :8-.:190-843883032412@17+,/8(V304-+:4I8.3:5-:3,/0/41223-:393,48I-B1273M 93+-+73+.1996+35-:3,/0/(a5-:9/+-..3=/2968-7=300-8;7S3++194A23 81./8323-:35/+36+,32:A.38:32M17,3293,.6++3/+:8;194/+730/548I23-:32 70 www.sft.no/arbeidsomr/prosjekt/klima/verktoy/klimakalkulator/ 93

94 81./80M32,3093:02-938-7-,3++3:/993+=3+73+;:3<12042/<3237+-+73+3:19 7SA23:41248I-@NF:.8-9/./8.68/012( N12?32:1+<-802/+:?12032:-06/:S1+3++U2:/70,30910:/003M-1793,/09/+=/2 </:320:37?;53-02/4-..0388-+732:19-++3<U232/0.<<?32:1+<-802/+:?120604A20/5 <;,3-++<I7732+381./80170-823-:3+,3-++3+177S3++19,3+/.063883.1996+3+ 0/:93,(a3232,30/80:;:+/..193+"/)-3:0-932-+7(O+/8032+/0-50-8+U29-+732 ;<26.3.1996+35-:3<3237+-+732412/+0/88-)2$#,-)-,)*=)-#"'C$<)-*=)-* $''C622)-(V300332,/0/:19<8/+0/++30-++7;2-@0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<I2;:-+3 +A..380/88412.1996+32 s" ( Q7:;41202/+:?12093,<;032,/0/3+39/+73846883(a32:.-883:,30-..3938819?32:1+T1771,:02/+:?120M-0-883770-8/0,3++3,:./832-+73+/5+/:S1+/83,/0/:19 327S120-91,3883+M3241272159/:.300-8/0,3+4/+7321??81./8317237-1+/83 5/2-/:S1+32JY2153+)%%"L(Q7:;=32329/+/5=3+7-7/5;=3+03-++02/+:?120,/0/ 81./8042//.06388302/+:?120:38:./?( #(C @/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8.8-9/3+,2-+732 Næringsvirksomhet B;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30412.8-9/3+,2-+73293,=3+:I+0-8+U2-+7:5-2.:19=3032,304A2:0174239:0-412=18,0-83+968-7A.04123.19:0/53.:02395U2/05-./+:- +13932?23:-:019=5-8.30I?32+U2-+732:1932:;2</23(B;2,307S38,32.1+:3.53+:32/593272/,5-:3178/+75/2-733+,2-+732M:19,/17:;93,4A232 A.1:I:0393+,2-+732M32,308/+705/+:.38-7323;:-+13932?23:-:0d-/8834/88195- =/2/9<-:S1+321917:;;4;423981./835/2-/:S1+32(V3+U2-+732:19,/4239:0;2 :1993:0:;2</2332+U2-+732:1932:032.0./B)'2$2*./*'.,4--)##4-#)-*f4A2:0/5 /80?2-9U2+U2-+73293+17:;5-,3234123,8-+7:<3,2-4032.+I00300-8,3003(c/+:./8 =38832-..3783993/0+/062.5/8-0303232,3+=380/57SA23+,323::62:3+17:;412 23-:38-530-B1273M-0-883770-8/023-:38-53032:032.0?;5-2.30,-23.03/5.8-9/( O+,2-+7-039?32/062T17+3,<A2:9A+:0327-23+,230726++8/7412?8/+03?21,6.:S1+d:385:9;3+,2-+732./+4;:01233443.032?;A.1:I:0393217 :/993+=3+73+332-..3/880-,8-.3;?3+</23(g.06:-..32=3093,=3+:I+0-85U230 32-:37:3853+.2-0-:.4/.0124123.:39?38-S12,<26.30M53,/0641260:-7</2=303+ A.32:./,3?103+:-/830(V30325/+:.38-7;:-=512,/+3+,2-+73+35-8:8;60-?2/.:-: -412=18,0-8?21,6.:S1+-S12,<26.30(Y35-+:03+/53+83+72353.:0:3:1+732412 3.:39?3817:;/5=3+7-7/5+3,<A2:9A+:03230(b;,34128-03174129I3237+32 64129;8:0S3+8-7(`8-.3/20325-817:;23/732368-.0?;:/9933+,2-+7-.8-9/M :/90-,-7:19h+72/,:3+,2-+7-039?32/0625-+032:0-,./+4;:0A223.1+:3.53+:32 3+h+72/,:3+,2-+7-:19932039?32/0623+(g.+-+7-2/:.353.:8-+732938819?86::T179-+6:72/,32195;23+5-8A.3?103+:-/830412421:0:./,32<;,3- S12,<26.3017:.17<26.30( O+,2-+7-039?32/062./+7-3+,2-+7-A.1:I:039321760<23,38:3+/568-.3/2032( g.03039?32/062325-84123.:39?384a230-8/0:.17723+:32.2i?32+12,153217 =AI3231532=/530J@I7+/17Qob2-3+)%%"LM:/90-,-7:19?21,6.:S1+3+./+A.3( @/90-,-75-8/20::/993+:30+-+73+.6++33+,23:M53,/0-++:8/730/5932 5/293.SU231721<6:03023:8/7J:19<A.173-.LA.32?;<3.1:0+-+7/5,3932 71 www.ssb.no/kommuner/

02/,-:S1+3883023:8/7/J72/+M462617<SA2.L(@329/+601532,3<-1817-:.3?21:3::3+3M:;./+:.17:192;,3217:;2/993:/5A.+-+7-:0129/.0-5-030M17 4A873+,3A.+-+7-:01294388-+7/5:.17( g.+-+7-=/5039?32/0623+./+7-53.:0-<3:0/+,3+/568-.3/2032m<;,3?8/+03217,i2m:/90-,-7:19,30;?+324123+,2-+7-/2032:60<23,38:3:9a+:032(o+,2-+7-039?32/062./+17:;7-726++8/7412a.+-+7-1??<819:02-+7/57-40/8732m17350( +I3:I.,19:127/+-:932./+,6..31??(@/90-,-75-83+A.+-+7-:0129/.0-5-0303+ 17423.53+:/53.:02395-+,?;5-2.3,381./83412=18,3+3412<;,34-:.317 =/5<26.(K21:S3.030]O_1+19-_*9?/_014D8-9/03D=/+731+B12^/Io: N-:=32-3:]53,@3+0324124-:.32-A.1+19-0/2:-.03?;;:06,323968-733443.032/5.8-9/3+,2-+732?;<;,34-:.31??,2300174-:.32-+U2-+7/( N3883:412/883:3.0123+3M322-:-.13+412A.+-+7-:./,3:194A873/5-++023,3+/5 +I3:I.,19932J<;,3?8/+03T174-:.3:I.,19932L17:./,3,I2M-++023,3+/5+I3 /2032J:19672/:17:1??LM:/90=I??-73231??<819:02-+732/54123.:39?38 7-40/8732J@I7+/17Qob2-3+)%%"L(a3232-9-,8320-,;2:/.::/993+=3+73+3 4239,383:6.8/23M175-5-8-..3=/968-7=30412;:30034239.1+.2303-+,-./01232 412,3003( Q4-$#()323+/++3++U2-+7::3.012:19.+I0032:37+U200-8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,( a329;5-:.-883938819,-23.0317-+,-23.03.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(v3,-23.03.1+:3.53+:3+3323443.032/53+,2-+732:197s38,32i5u230id4123.:39?38 /0i,;28-7323i5U2:19932:0-,./+23,6:3230-8:02A99-+73+/5:19932062-:032(V3 -+,-23.03.1+:3.53+:3+34A8732/5A.1:I:0393+,2-+732M:19-7S3+32608A:0/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(O03.:39?3832/0A.07S3+721-+7/58/+,:./?30T:19-/8834/88,385-:32412;2:/.30/5.8-9/3+,2-+732f./+4A230-823,6:320-8:02A99-+7/5 062-:03219:199323+412,-8/+,:./?:<-8,301??4/003::199-+,23-+0323::/+0d17 195-+0323+412,-192;,3+3<8-29-+,23/002/.0-530-8:.-06232(R1+:3.53+:32/5 3+,2-+7-.8-9/?/2/93032332,3293,-..33+0I,-793,=3+:I+0-83+,230 :;2</2=30( Tabell 13 Næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer BU2-+732 O.:39?832?;.1+:3.53+:32 W12,<26. g.0039?32/06217+3,<a2./+7-a.0?21,6.:s1+m93+:/90-,-717:;a.0321:s1+ 17A.03?21<8393293,:./,3,I2(g.+-+7-641260:-7</2=307-2A.0 :./,3?103+:-/8(*++023,3+$1??<819:02-+7/5:./,3127/+-:932:194A873/5 3+,2/5-8.;2( @.17<26. g.04123.19:0/53.:02395u2./+7-a.03?21<8393293,:01294388-+7m:/90-,-7 :19A.0039?32/06217A.0+3,<A2./+7-A.053.:017=AI323:.17723+:3( c/2-+34-:.32-32 O+,2-+732-=/5:02A993217A.0:9380-+7/5=/5-:3+-+12,192;,3+3./+7- :01233+,2-+732-+U2-+7:726++8/7175/+,2-+7:9A+:032412/002/.0-534-:.3:8/7( c/2-+1??,2300 g.0039?32/062-.i:04/25/++./+7-1??<819:02-+7/5+i37-40/8732(g.0 4123.19:0/53.:02395U2./+A.34/23+412=/5/2-/51??,2300:/+8377( P3-:38-5 aai323039?32/062-02/,-:s1+3883603+8/+,:.3432-3192;,32412+12,93++ Ji:I,3+iL./+A.330032:?A2:383+30032;432-323-B1273M:/90-,-7:19A.0 039?32/062./+:53..3<30-+738:3+34125-+032062-:93-9/+73/5,/73+: 5-+032062-:93T,3:0-+/:S1+32( @?A2:9;83032,/195-=/2+1..6++:./?19;2:/.T5-2.+-+7:412=18,30938819.8-9/17,368-.3+U2-+7::3.0123+30-8/0,3032=3+:-.0:93::-7;:30034239 :0/+,/2,-:3203153+42/T17T+3,-+,-./01232-91,3883+(V30324123.:39?38 5/+:.38-7;:0-8831??+3,:./832-+7:-+,-./01232412S12,<26.30603+;:?3:-4-:323,300341268-.3,2-40:0I?32(O+426.0<1+,3-a/2,/+732M3+938.3<1+,3?;WU23+17 95

3+.12+<1+,3-a3,9/2.=/268-.9/27-+93,=3+:I+0-8=5-8.3.8-9/3+,2-+732,3./+0-8?/::3:37 og hvilke klimaparametere som er de mest kritiske. X3,?23:3+0/:S1+/523:680/032412X1::.1996+3J42/@Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.030 ]H<$(.,)*HB.'2)*F4<')-.C$<$,6*$'*1"-O.6N*"M$"3)M"'"($M*T)-#=)M,$/)#*"'* T"<$M$)#*.'5*?(=.M,#]L412,3+81./83.1996+3/,9-+-:02/:S1+3+M<83,3 +3,:./8320323:680/03+3412S12,<26.:?3:-380M93+17:;5-+032062-:93M:300?;:19 8-03/.063883412.1996+3+726++30/0,3-..34/+7301??81./8:?3:-4-..3412=18, 71,0+1.(N12:A.30?;;:30034239153+42/T17T+3,-+,-./01232412S12,<26.30 </:320?;3+,2-+7-30605/87.8-9/?/2/93032343883:412=3838/+,30<83./2/.032-:320:198-03,3..3+,3412,3+233883:-06/:S1+3+-S12,<26.30?;X1:: JQob2-3+948)%%&L(V30035-:32</23/0S12,<26.-..3323+0I,-7M17/0,30328300; ]<1993]+;29/+<3=/+,832/883S12,<26.:.1996+328-.0(W12,<26.-68-.3 192;,323223:680/0/58/+70-,:0-8?/:+-+70-8=38081./8:?3:-4-..3412=18,J<;,3 +/06217.8-9/L(D"'#)&/)'#)-/5.8-9/3+,2-+732<A2,3293,41238A?-7.6+ 562,323:81./80(V304-++3:-,/70/88?32.1996+3?;=6:,I2=18,17 S12,<26.:/23/8 s) M179/+=/2,3293,/88323,3+;3+968-7=304120-83+5-::72/,;.8/::-4-:323S12,<26.30-=532.1996+3(H-.3538M,30324A2:0+;29/+=/2:06,320 ;2:/.T5-2.+-+7:412=18,30938819?21,6.:S1+17.8-9/-932,30/8SM/0,30035-8.6++3,/++3726++8/74123+153212,+3017932,30/8S3201532:-.01532:;2</2=30- S12,<26.30-9A0393,.8-9/3+,2-+732M7S3++19+I3]B1273:./20]</:320?; -+,3.:32-+7-++3+=532+U2-+7:./03712-( Når det gjelder sårbarhet knyttet til jordbruksproduksjon, vil i tillegg samspilleffekter mellom fysiske og biologiske prosesser kunne gi ytterliggere samfunnsmessig sårbarhet (bl.a. jorderosjon og produksjon). Som nevnt ovenfor, så knytter det seg usikkerhet også til dette aspektet ved effekter av klimaendringer. Det er desto viktigere at lokale vurderinger forsøker å fange opp aspekter ved disse mulige samspilleffektene. Ved Norges Landbrukshøgskole foregår det modellutvikling som sammenstiller fokus på effekter av klimaendringer med hensyn til: vann- og varmetransport, jorderosjon, plantevekst, karbon- og nitrogenomsetning i jord og utveksling av klimagass mellom jord og atmosfære 73. Målet er å kunne vurdere økonomiske og økologiske konsekvenser av en endret klimatilstand for jordbruket, og man går helt ned på arts- og dyrkingsteknisk nivå. Prosjektet har derimot ikke kommet langt nok til at vi har kunna bruke resultat i vårt arbeid her. Sårbarhetsvurderingene må dermed bygge på lokale vurderinger av årsak/virkningsforholdet mellom lokale driftstyper (plantetyper og husdyrarter) og klima, for slik å kunne spesifisere sårbarheten i det lokale jordbruket, utover den økonomiske avhengigheten av næringssektoren. På overordnet i nivå kan man derimot si at alle landbrukskommuner bør sjekke sårbarheten med hensyn til klimaendringer i mer detalj. V303217:;:5U20.19?8-:320;/+:8;=5/#4()++)&,)'/5.8-9/3+,2-+7325-8.6++3 <8-412,-::3+U2-+73+3(B13+412=18,J:19A.0039?32/062L5-8-:18320:300.6++3 :8;?1:-0-5060J4123.:39?38<3,23<30-+738:324125-::30I?32S12,<26.:53.:03217 :.173+93273+32380LM93+:/+,23412=18,5-8.6++3:8;+37/0-5060J4123.:39?38 A.04123.19:0/53.:02395U293,?;4A873+,3A.072/,/5:01294388-+7-:.173+L( V30/57SA23+,3=3232:6993+/5,368-.3,383443.03+317968-7=303+412/0 :/9:?-883443.032./+:8;60?;9;032:19325/+:.38-7;41260:-(*0-88377.19932 72 Jordbruksareal og husdyr, se: http://www.ssb.no/10/04/10/jordbruksareal/ 73 Economy and Ecology of Agriculture in a Changing Climate (EACC; 2003-2007). 96

,3:/993+=3+732:195--,/7-..3=/20-8:023..38-7.6++:./?19M4123.:39?38,38/+7:-.0-73A.1:I:0393443.03+3/5303+,230.8-9/(Q7,3003<8-2/80:;19968-7 3+,/932.19?8-:320=5-:5-17:;:./8?2A53;4;4239,3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+( O+0-8+U29-+7412;4;4239,3+81./83:;2</2=303++;2,307S38,32968-73 +U2-+7:93::-73.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732./+,324124A2:0174239:05U23 </23;4;4239,3+81./83./B)'2$2B),)'/5,-::3+U2-+73+3(V3003412=18,30./+ -886:02323:53,;:/993+8-7+3+/:S1+/83:+-00412.'5)<)'*./*#6##)<#),,$'2)'-++3+,-::3+U2-+73+393,,381./83412=18,3+3(O53+06380./+9/+:6??832393,; :/993+8-7+3/+,383+?21,6.:S1+81./80-412=18,0-8:/9830+/:S1+/8?21,6.:S1+( K13+73032;4;423919307-0081./8:/946++32932/5=3+7-7/5,-::3+U2-+73+3 3++,30:197S38,3273+32380412B1273( Y-00/081./8:/946++30.1993260:19932:;2</203++8/+,:7S3++19:+-0030412h+ 3883248323/5+U2-+73+35-:0-0/<3883+1532M./+,30035U2330726++8/7412; 7S3++194A23932,30/8S3203562,32-+732/5=5-8.3.1+:3.53+:32:19:I+3: 23/8-:0-:.381./80(V30039;-/8830-8438835U23932?23:-:317.5/8-4-:3203 562,32-+7323++,305-=/25-:0-0/<3883+6+,32M<8(/(</:320?;'-L73+323883.6++:./?3219=512,/+68-.30I?32.8-9/?;,2-5./+?;5-2.368-.30I?32?21,6.:S1+M17--L81./8.6++:./?190I?3?21,6.:S1+( Tabell 14 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer @;2</23+U2-+732 c68-73-+,-./01232 W12,<26. T /+,38S12,<26.:/23/8/5:/98308/+,/23/8 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38:300-+7 @.17<26. T /+,38?21,6.0-50:.17/23/8/5:/98308/+,/23/8 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38:300-+7 c/2-+34-:.32-32 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38:300-+7 c/2-+1??,2300 T :/983081./8?21,6.:S1+?32-++<I773281./80 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38:300-+7 P3-:38-5 T /+,383+23-:38-5:19:30+-+781./80:197S38,325-+032062-:93 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38:300-+7 O05-,323/2<3-,93,605-.8-+7M0-8?/:+-+71760?2A5-+7/581./83.8-9/:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232<A27;+U29323-++?;.1+:3.53+:32-++3+412,368-.3 +U2-+73+341219968-7;.199342390-8932,30/8S320317-+4129/0-53 -+,-./01232( Infrastruktur c3,-+42/:026.06203+.325--,3++3:/993+=3+73+?;4a873+,34i:-:.3:026.06232' T 53-32M=326+,3206++383217<2632 T </+32J41201717/++30:.-++37;3+,39/032-388L T =/5+32 T 48I?8/::32 T 83,+-+7:+300J8640M./<38L T 2A2:I:03932J/58A?M5/++412:I+-+7L T,/9/+8377J-=153,:/.1??,399-+7/5.2/409/7/:-+32L T <I7+-+732J3+.380<I7+-+73217:/993+=3+73+,3<3<I7738:3L V300332-+42/:026.062:19-607/+7:?6+.0304239:0;2:19:U28-7:;2</2+;2,30 7S38,32.8-9/3+,2-+732'-4A2:03197/+7A.04123.19:0/53.:02395U2J5-+,M +3,<A2LM93+17:;-412=18,0-89328/+7:-.0-731772/,5-:33+,2-+732:19A.0 97

+3,<A2J:19./+7SA23+I3192;,3273+32380932:.23,60:/003L173+A.+-+7- =/5+-5;30J:19./+<32A23.I:0+U2353-:023.+-+732L(Q7:;=3232,30.19?8-:3203 412=18,:19:?-8832-++M:19-7S3+7SA2,305/+:.38-7;:-+1393273+3238019 968-73.1+:3.53+:32( Transport *412:06,-3+195-2.+-+732/5.8-9/3+,2-+732412,-.'#="-,#)&,"-)'JNS38,948 )%%)L:195-+35+030-,8-732317:19<837S3++194A206+,32/2<3-,3093, B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+412)%%ZT)%"#M.1+.86,323:,3093,/0.8-9/3+,2-+732 73+323805-8i<32A238A?3+,3,2-40M53,8-.3=18,17<323,:./??;3.:-:0323+,3 -+42/:026.0621702/4-../55-.8-+7T17.1+:026.:S1+17<I77-+7/5+I-+42/:026.062i JNS38,948)%%)')ZL(P/??1203+4239=3532A.023::62:-++:/0:0-8<323,:./?M 23?/2/:S1+174123<I773+,30-80/.9102/:M6078-,+-+7M6+,3272/5-+7M 1532:5A9938:3M4819175-+,4/88(P/??1203+7-217:;562,32-+732/5237-1+/83 412:.S38832+;2,307S38,32.8-9/3+,2-+732:193223835/+03412 02/+:?120-+42/:026.0623+M17=5-8.3968-73.1+:3.53+:32,3003./+4;JS40/<388 6+,32L( Tabell 15 Mulige utslag av klimaendringer med relevans for transportsektoren (Fjeld mfl 2002) R8-9/T F219:M B12,8/+, F2A+,38/7M @A28/+,30M aai4s38830 *++8/+,30?;5-2.+-+7 N-++9/2. X3:08/+,30 Q:814S12,3+ X-+, % % % ba8732 % y y P37+ % % @+A % % } % N2I:3$0-+3 % } % } } } a/5+-5; % y y F;.3$-:-+7 T T T T T T F37+412.8/2-+7' } 9-+,2360:/00 % 9-+-9/83+,2-+7 +1360:/00 :032.060:/00 93730:032.060:/00 T,/0/41238-7732-..3 y -..323835/+0 P/??1203+1?32323293,""./03712-32/5968-73.1+:3.53+:32:194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+73+35-:0-0/<3883+1532(V-::37S38,3293,+13+6++0/.412:/908-73 /5,34-2302/+:?120:I:0393+353-J-+.86,320432732LMS32+</+302/+:?120M :SA02/+:?12017864002/+:?120' T 412:-+.38:3M8/+,8-773M23768/2-030 T 621-=/5+J-..323835/+0412S32+</+317864002/+:?120L T 0;.3M-:-+7 T 78/0026883T$.SA23</+3J-..323835/+0412:SA02/+:?120L T :+AJ-..323835/+0412:SA02/+:?120L T 4819J-..323835/+0412:SA02/+:?120L T :0129481 T :.23,J-..323835/+0412:SA02/+:?12017864002/+:?120L T :03-+:?2/+7M:0129:./,32M5-+,4/88J-..323835/+0412:SA02/+:?12017 864002/+:?120L T 412<I77-+7:T179181:./,32 T 4128-:M:/993+:0A0M60.SA2-+7 c193+08-:03+153232<26.0412;7sa23+13+72153562,32-+73219237-1+/83 5/2-/:S1+32-.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732J:30/<3886+,32L(F/883+35-:0-98

0/<3883+6+,3232,32-910-..3:;-+0323::/+03-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V-::332 4239.1993053,;:699323.1+:3.53+:562,32-+732:19327S120412,3 9193+03+3:19325-:015328/+7:3+:./8/42/%J9-+-9/833+,2-+732L0-8CJ93730 :0124125322-+7L(K13+730=3232;4;4239/0,3032:0123237-1+/835/2-/:S1+32-968-73.1+:3.53+:3241202/+:?120:3.0123+( Tabell 16 Oppsummering av konsekvensvurdering for transportformer av mulige klimaendringer. Høyere tall indikerer større negativ konsekvens (etter Fjeld mfl 2002) F2/+:?120T F219:M B12,8/+, F2A+,38/7M @A28/+,30M aai4s38830 *++8/+,30 4129 N-++9/2. X3:08/+,30 Q:814S12,3+ X3- "& "& "% & ) & b/+3 s s s s & C @SA "\ "C \ % % % H640 [ Z & & % ) $VW SX S9 RY 6: 7 Y V30325/+:.38-7;.19931??93,+13+93+-+7:46883.5/+0-0/0-53-+,-./01232?;,3003192;,30(O+968-7=3032;<26.3:/9830</+3T1753-83+7,3?32?32:1+:19 3+&>)-')$'5$&.,"-?;:;2</2=30:?103+:-/830(@./89/+.19935-,32393,932 -+4129/0-53562,32-+73232,30/+0/.38-7+A,53+,-7;<26.3&/.<$,.,$/)-+,-./01232M,305-8:-/0,309;7SA23:.1+.2303562,32-+732/581./83.1+:3.53+:32T 562,32-+732:19-..38/2:3723,6:3230-830.1+.2300/88-4129/53+-+,-./01238832 3+-+,3.:( O+81./8562,32-+7/5:;2</2=30+;2,307S38,32-+42/:026.0629;7SA23:-01 1?32/:S1+32(P%-#,9;9/+41230/3+.-).<C)#,)(,562,32-+7,329/+:06,3232 =5125-,07-00381./8-03032:1953-32M=/5+32M8-+S321:53260:/00412+37/0-53.1+:3.53+:32/53+,2-+732-.8-9/30174I:-:.33+,2-+732J:192/:L608A:0/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(V3832/59193+08-:03+1532./+<26.3::1930607/+7:?6+.0412; -,3+0-4-:323:;2</23,3832/502/+:?120-+42/:026.0623+(K13+73032;4;423919,30 32<3=15412412:032.+-+7:0-80/.38832198377-+7/5-+42/:026.0623+(d)-')#,9; 9/+562,323=5125-,0C-4&)'/5-+42/:026.0623+5-8?;5-2.3:/5.8-9/3+,2-+732( g.02/:4/23./+4123.:39?384a230-83+198377-+7/53+53-02/:h603+/0,30?; :-.0<3=A532;?;5-2.3<26.3+/5,3081./8353-+30030-+35+3532,-772/,(c10:/00./+9/+03+.3:37/0A.0423.53+:/5:+A:.23,-:37:385-..3:./,32:3853 53-+30030M38832/0,30-..332968-7;837731953-02/:h3+M93+/0<26.3+/5 53-+30030<8-2?;5-2.30(Q7:;=32./+,3832/59193+08-:03+5U2330+I00-7 607/+7:?6+.0412:8-.3562,32-+732( Ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg H3,+-+7:+300./+<8-:./,30/5+3,<A2J-:-+7L175-+,J4388-+7/59/:032L(B;2,30 7S38,322A2:I:0393232,30:U28-7/58A?::I:03930:35+30-8;4/+731??1742/.03 53..153248/035/++:1932.2-0-:.(V39+-+732M412<I77-+73217/+,230I?32 1??,399-+7:/+8377./+<8-:./,30:194A873/54819(a5-:,-::37-230032./+,30 -+3:03197/+7608A:3+I3:3.6+,U234819932( O+73+32388-+,-./012+;2,307S38,3283,+-+7:+300M2A2:I:0393217,/9/+837732 4123.19:03+/5,-::3-412=18,0-8,30:19327S3++19:+-008-7=I??-7=30+/:S1+/80( *+,-./0123+<I7732,3293,?;/+0/738:3+19/081./8:/946++93,238/0-50:300 :0A223-++:8/7/5,3++30I?3+-+42/:026.062./+5U23932:/946++:A.1+19-:. :;2</23412.8-9/3+,2-+7323++/+,23( 99

B;2,307S38,321443+08-7/58A??21,6:3232@0/0-:0-:.:3+02/8<I2;.1996+35-: :0/0-:0-..412:/983083+7,3/58A?:2A2(B1273:5/::,2/7:T173+327-532.=/28/730 3+373+./20</:320,/0/</:31532/883,39+-+73217/+,23,/9/+8377(a328-7732 17:;-+4129/:S1+19.2/4083,+-+732-864017:SAT$S12,./<38(FS3+3:03+32 0-87S3+738-7?;+30030M17,32./+9/+4;4239.1996+35-:3./201532,3++30I?3+ -+42/:026.062 sc ( Tabell 17 Eksempel på sårbarhetsindikatorer for ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg *+,-./012 @17+,/8 B1273 H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32-++<I7732 "CM\9$-++< \Ms9$-++< H3+7,3.2/4083,+-+732?32-++<I7732 e e @0A2238:3?;,/99/7/:-+?32-++<I7732 %9 ) $-++<I7732 ")%%9 ) $-++<I7732 Bebyggelse B;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30412.8-9/3+,2-+73293,=3+:I+0-8<3<I7738:3M./+,3003.+I003:0-8' -L<"&.<$#)-$'2)'*./*C)C622)<#)',5:(-=5-8.3+72/,<3<I7738:33281./8-:320-192;,32:1932?103+:-380:;2</234124I:-:.3?21:3::32-303+,230.8-9/d17 --L#)</)*4,+"-($'2)'*./*C62'$'2)-',5:(-=5-8.3+72/,<I7+-+732.1+:026.:S1+:93::-70;83230,-23.039A0393,30+I00.8-9/?;,2-5( b3<i7738:3./+<8-2/99//5,3483:030i?324i:-:.3?21:3::32<3:.23530-,3++3 2/??1203+d4<$&)*,6=)-#&-)5]*#,"-(*"2*+<"((V3+/57SA23+,34/.0123+32-=5-8.3+ 72/,<3<I7738:3+3281./8-:320-192;,32:1932?103+:-380:;2</23412,-::3?21:3::3+3-303+,230.8-9/(*4A873K8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+<A2192;,32:1932 :U28-760:/004124/23-4129/54819M:.23,M2/,1+178-7+3+,3M17:19/5,3+ 726++-..3<A2<3<I773:M83773:60:19]<;+,8/703192;,32]-.1996+3?8/+3+: /23/8,381723768323::19]4/23192;,32]JcV)%%"L(H-.3538-9/+73.1996+32 -,/74-++329/+3+=AI/+,38/5<3<I7738:3+17-+42/:026.0623+-+3001??,3++3 0I?3192;,32d?;3853:8300321738535-4032M176+,322/:60:/0034S388:-,32( BXO:4819:1+3./20:?3:-4-:3232=5-8.3192;,32M-+.86,320<3:.2-538:3/5=5-8.3+ <3<I7738:317-+42/:026.062:19<8-22/99/53,68-.34819+-5;(X3, 1532:-.0:?8/+8377-+7./+3+4123.:39?38<26.34819:1+3+3,-23.03412; -,3+0-4-:323192;,32:19-..3<A2<3<I773:603++U29323562,32-+7/54/23+17 968-730-80/.(*0-88377=/23.:-:0323+,3:.23,4/23./203+,30/8S32-+7:72/,:197SA2,30968-7412.1996+32:385;562,323/+,383+<3<I7738:3J17-+42/:026.062L:19 4/8832-++6+,322-:-.1192;,3+3(*192;,32601532,3/88323,3./208/703192;,3+3M <A2.1996+3+3:38541230/81./83562,32-+73217./208377-+732/5,3+4/.0-:.3 81./8-:32-+73+81./80( @19+35+00-,8-73237-2]B12:.:0/+,/2,4125-+,T17:+A8/:032].1996+35-:3 23432/+:35-+,=/:0-7=3032:19-7S3+./+<3+I003:0-8;<3237+35-+,T17:+A8/:032 412:?3:-4-..3<I770-8?/::30<;,381./85-+,230+-+71703223+726=30:72/,(c3, 607/+7:?6+.0-=5-8.3+72/,<3<I7738:3+.1+:026.:S1+:93::-70-8423,::0-8832,/73+:.1996+/835-+,8/:0:0/+,/2,M5-89/+.6++3=/30726++8/7412;562,323 :;2</2=303+17:;-303+,230.8-9/J6042/+I002-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-8:0129L( 74 http://arcus.nve.no/website/nve/viewer.htm 100

B;2,307S38,32:+A8/:032M:30032B1273:<I77412:.+-+7:-+:0-060042/91532:-.01532 =5-8.30I?32<I7+-+732,324/23+412:/993+<26,,388320-88A?0-8:5-.0:194A873 /5:+A8/:032?;0/.562,323:;5U23:0A2:0JS42(Q.C)<<*8`6+,32L( s# Tabell 18 Bygningstyper i faresonen ved store snølaster (Lisøe mfl 2000) E( H3003.1+:026.:S1+3293,:?3++5-,,32:0A2233++"%9J3.:39?385-:0I?3=/8832M8/732T 17-,2300:=/8832M:/90,2-40:<I7+-+732-8/+,<26.30LM:?3:-380<63=/8832 b( FI?3=/8832-9?120320:19i?/..38A:+-+732i603+,1.693+0320<U2335+3-=3+=18,0-8 +12:.3:+A8/:0237832 D( bi7+-+7321??4a20?;,67+/,1(8(m:191403=/2412,;28-7<u2335+3412,-,332 60-8:023..38-7?21:S3.0320$604A20 V( bi7+-+732=5123+,2-+7-<26.3+/5<i7730=/293,4a203+,2-+732-8/:041260:30+-+73+3m 17=512.1+:3.53+:3+/5A.038/:05-2.+-+732-..332.1+02188<3237+30 O( c-,8320-,-73.1+:026.:s1+32 N( Q9<I7,3<I7+-+732170/..1+:026.:S1+32 Y( bi7+-+73293,0/..1+:026.:s1+32/58300<301+738393+032:19./+5u23:53..301532 8/+70-,726++30/2932-+7:.1221:S1+( *,3:3+323;23+3=/2,305U204832368I..3293,:/993+<26,,/5<I7+-+732-412<-+,38:393,238/0-50:0123:+A8/:032 sz (*3+.38030-8438832=/2:+A8/:03+?;0/.30 5U20:0A2233++<I7+-+73+=/25U20,-93+:S1+320412(*/+,230-8438832=/2 43-8,-93+:S1+3217$38832/+,2343-853,.1+:026.:S1+3+5U2060:8/7:7-53+,3412/0 <I7+-+73+.188/?:30(`+,32:A.38:32/5=/8832<3+I00300-8-,2300M93::32M.1+:32032 30_(5-:32/0:5U209/+7332.1+:026320412:+A8/:03293,.6+#;2: 7S3+0/.:-+0325/88M+13:197SA2,30+A,53+,-7;9;.30/.30+;2,3++38/:03+ 1532:.2-,3:Jb8t983-+)%%&L(*0-883775/+:.38-77SA2<63,30/.-9/+730-8438832 9;.-+7-:37:385(B12:.@0/+,/2,=/260/2<3-,30532,-32412:+A8/:03293,3+ 23062?32-1,3?;#%;2(N2/"\\\:./8,-93+:S1+32-+73+/5/883<I770-8423,:0-883,3++3:+A8/:0532,-3+(*++0-8"\\\5/2,30532,-3+412:+A8/:03293,23062?32-1,3?;#;2:195/2.2/530(V3003<30I2/0,3483:03<I77-+12:.3.1996+328-7732 8/+706+,32,/73+::0/+,/2,.2/5(*9A0393,+I00.8-9/?;,2-532,308-.3538 5/+:.38-7;83773,/73+::0/+,/2,0-8726++412562,32-+7/5+I002-:-.1<-8,3(K;.8-9/:-,3+32,30,32-910.8/20/5A.03:+A93+7,325-8A.34/23+412:0123 :+A8/:032( b3<i7738:3./+17:;<8-2/99//5]:8/7237+]( ss Nedbør i form av slagregn kan medføre store problemer for ytterkonstruksjonene (fasader). Mengden slagregn som treffer en bygnings ytterflate avhenger bl.a. av nedbørsintensiteten, vindens hastighet og retning, lokal topografi, skjerming fra omgivelsene og ytterflatens orientering og helning. Åpne kyststrøk og høyfjellstrøk har normalt de hyppigste 75 Det blir også satt fram en alternativ metode for utpeking av sårbare bygg: For bygninger oppført i perioden 1949-1969 kan en gå ut fra at kritisk snølast for lette takkonstruksjoner er 1,5 kn/m2 (150 kg/m2), mens en for tunge tak kan forutsette noe større lastevne. For bygninger oppført i perioden 1970-1979 bør det forutsettes at kritisk snølast på tak ikke er større enn 1,5 kn/m2. For bygninger oppført etter 1979 kan det forenklet antas at kritisk snølast på tak tilsvarer de snølastene på mark som er angitt i NS 3479 for hver kommune, dvs. vanligvis 1,5-3,5 kn/m2. sz *,3:39<32)%%).+3803Q:81N8I.86<<:=/+7/2?;RS388326+,32:0123:+A9/::3217412;2:/.30 :012:./,3?;.86<<3+:48I(*"\\\.188/?:30HA.3+;:=/883+M-HA23+:.17.1996+3M6+,32:0123 :+A93+7,3217?;726++/543-8.1+:026.:S1+/50/.30( 77 Ved regn og vind i kombinasjon får regndråpene en hastighetskomponent også i horisontalretningen. Dette kalles slagregn. 101

og største påkjenningene i dag, mens innlandsstrøk er mindre utsatt. Det finnes i dag ingen samla oversikter over slagregn i Norge, men i prosjektet Klima2000 ved Norges byggforskningsinstitutt foregår det utvikling av grunnlag for vurdering av slagregnpåkjenninger 78. Prosjektet vil også presentere metode og anvisninger for hvordan slagregnpåkjenninger kan vurderes i forbindelse med prosjektering av bygninger. Dette vil kunne danne grunnlag for fremsetting av enkle indikatorer også for vurdering av sårbarhet med hensyn til slagregn på eksisterende bygningsmasse. Q53+4127S3++197/+7/5.2-0-:.34/.012325-:32/0,305-85U235/+:.38-7;4-++3 +3,:./832-+7:-+,-./01232412<3<I7738:317:;2</2=3093,=3+:I+0-8.8-9/3+,2-+732(O+562,32-+7/581./8:;2</2=30?;,3003192;,309;-:-+=38=30,3293,<I773?;81./83562,32-+732</:320?;30:30081./83:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232 3883293273+3238839301,32412562,32-+7/53+.380<I77:60:/00=30( #(# *+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30 X-./+:.-8839388193073+3238017:?3:-4-.0?32:?3.0-5?;:?A2:9;8301981./8 -+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30(V302)')-)<<)?32:?3.0-5307S38,3281./8:/946++30:35+3 0-8;7S3++194A233+,2-+7:?21:3::32932/8893+0(a3232,3072/,/5/601+19-17,-:?1+-<8323::62:32:1932/57SA23+,3(E.063883-+,-./01232=3232605-.830/5 Qpb2-3+948J)%%&LM,32,3:.-883293881981./80-8?/:+-+7:35+36042/ 5)("2-.+$#&)17%&"'"($#&)*412=18,' T E+,383+38,23-,3+I2.3:/.0-53<3418.+-+73+( T E+,383+</2+176+73-,3+:/983,3<3418.+-+73+( T B30016048I00-+7:2/03 T H1./8:I::38:300-+7:?217+1:3 T @0/08-7315324A2-+732?32-++<I7732 T @./003-++03.0?32-++<I7732 V30037-2-9-,8320-,238/0-5073+323883562,32-+732M17:190-,8-7323+35+0230032,3 :37</23-<3723+:3072/,-++910.1+.230381./83-+:0-06:S1+32(V308-7732=38832 -+73+.8/23.1<8-+7320-8=5/:1932,3081./83.1996+/83=/+,8-+7:219930'/80:; =512,/+9/+353+06380./+#,6-&),3+81./83-++:/0:3+412;0-8?/::3:37.8-9/3+,2-+732388327S3++194A2-+73+/5.8-9/?18-0-:.35-2.39-,832( N12;605-.839329;823003,3-+,-./012325387325-;837730-8726++30932#=)#$+$&,?32:?3.0-5:19230032:37-++910,3-+:0-06:S1+32:19:I+3:;5U23:3+02/83-+;2,307S38,32;23,6:323:;2</2=303+81./80(X-8377320-8726++/04A873+,3023 -+:0-06:S1+3883:I:0393232:U28-75-.0-73-3+81./8:/993+=3+7' T.1996+/8?8/+8377-+7 T.1996+/89-8SA532+4125/80+-+7 T.1996+/80<323,:./?:/2<3-, s[ @3'^^^(<I77412:.(+1$K21:S3.032$R8-9/)%%%$?2172/9$%ZT""{?""(=098 102

X-:32,3293,<12042/412:-.2-+717:3.012-+:0-06:S1+32-++3+/+0/00.8-9/:;2</23 +U2-+732:19?2-9U2+U2-+73+31723-:38-530(V30032-9328-.353893,5;23 /9<-:S1+3219;7SA23-+,-./012:I:0393093:0968-712-3+0320-++91081./83 <3:860+-+7:?21:3::32( X-=/20-,8-7323:.-809388193+?21/.0-51723/.0-50-8+U29-+70-8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( V30033230:.-883:19./+.+I003:0-8:?A2:9;83019+;29/+7S3++194A232 0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.'=3+=18,:5-:-412./+03883230032./+0/53+.8-9/=3+,38:3(@9-0 17@.-++32J)%%)'\&L:.-8832-9-,8320-,938819,-)./03712-326042/,30,3 <3037+32:19]0-9-+7]M,32,3-0-883770/293,./03712-3+]53,5/23+,3]J3+738:.',62-+7L(@/90-,-7?3.32,3?;/0,30-?2/.:-:./+5U235/+:.38-7;:.-883938819,3023./03712-3+3(X-4-++32,308-.3538=3+:-.0:93::-7;1?3232393,30:8-.0 :.-883+;2,307S38,32=512,/+-+:0-06:S1+32412=18,32:370-8.8-9/:;2</2=30( *+:0-06:S1+3217-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932./+<3:.2-53:6042/01412=18,' 4123.19:03+/5-+:0-06:S1+3883#,-4&,4-)-17=512,/+,-::3<8-2C-4&,(@./89/+:- +1393+-+7:4688019,3+-+:0-06:S1+3883./?/:-0303+81./8032,30,32412-..3 0-8:023..38-7;237-:02323193+7-00:026.062320-8:03,3J4123.:39?3819.1996+3+=/23+/23/8?8/+3883219.1996+3+=/20-8:/003+9-8SA532+83,32L(V30 328-.35-.0-7;4;42391917=512,/+:026.0623+3<8-2<26.0J4123.:39?3819,30 <8-27-00,-:?3+:/:S1+32412<I77-+7-192;,32:19./+<8-2/:60:/00?;726++/5 968-73.8-9/3+,2-+732L(V3003:-:03?8/::32325--++6+,321532:.2-403+ ]53,5/23+,3]M93+:5-538732;<26.31532:.2-403+]2>)''"(+%-$'2#)/')S?;,3+./03712-3+-+:0-06:S1+3883-+,-./01232:19:./84/+731??:?A2:9;83019 ]53,5/23+,3/.0-5-030]( V3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:0393+35-<2-+73293,1::=/2-68-.372/,./2/.032/5; 5U23?21/.0-5M23/.0-51753,5/23+,3(E883023:I:0393+3,2-5323+4129412?8/+8377-+7M17=/2,3293,30.8/20?21/.0-5038393+0(@/90-,-7-++3=18,32,3 17:;3053,5/23+,338393+0-,3+412:0/+,/0,3:/993?8/+3+3:./84A873:1???; 68-.39;032-3+4129412,/7T0-8T,/7?2/.:-:(b323,:./?-++3=18,32-0-8837730 38393+019.2-+71??4A87-+7:197S38,32+3001??23/.0-53/.0-5-03032608A:0/5 68-.3412932412.2-:32( *-++83,+-+73+2343232035-0-83+023,38-+7:19a3/83I948J)%%&L7//523::62:32 :1932:3+02/83+;29/+:./8<3:.2-53-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=3081./80'.6++:./?:23::62:32M+300532.:23::62:321791<-8-:32-+7:35+3(a3/83I948J)%%&L 7-230238/0-50/<:02/.03.:39?38?;=512,/+9/+412:A.32;<3:.2-53-+:0-06:S1+388 :;2</2=30(O0/++3017932.1+.2303.:39?38M93+:198-.3538./+:-3:;<I773?;,3+0I?3-++,38-+7:1932?23:3+0320/5a3/83I948M32=3+03042/X32,3+:</+.3+ J@37+3:0/9"\\\L(a32=/29/+605-.83030:300-+,-./01232412;562,323 9-8SA.1+:3.53+:32/5?21:S3.03293,:0A00342/X32,3+:</+.3+17412;:-.23.5/8-0303+?;23+39-8SA?21:S3.032(O.:39?832?;:8-.3-+,-./0123232 s\ ' 9-8SA<6,:S300:19/+,38/5:/983,31443+08-73607-4032 /+0/88/+:/00393,60,/++38:3-9-8SAS6:: 3.:-:03+:/59-8SA3+=3032-1443+08-74125/80+-+7 /+0/889-8SA?8/+32 79 Se også http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/essd/envext.nsf/44bydocname/institutionalcapacity 103

.6++7SA2-+7/5+I39-8SA2376832-+732 3.:-:03+:/59-8SA8157-5+-+7 E883-+,-./0123+3,23-32:3719-+:0-06:S1+3883:026.06232M93+,-::3./+726??323: -68-.30I?32:026.06232(V3+4A2:03-+,-./0123+,23-32:3719%&"'"($#&*35+3JS4 17:;-+,-./0123+3605-.830/0Qpb2-3+948)%%&7S3+7-00-++83,+-+7:5-:-,3003./?-003830L(V32+3:0.1993201-+,-./01232:19,23-32:3719&"(=),.'#)JS4 a3/83i:./03712-].6++:./?:23::62:32]l(v3:-:03023-+,-./0123+3,23-32:3719 #,6-$'2#()##$2)17>4-$5$#&)38393+032:19=/29I30-843883:93,,305-1532=/2 <3037+30:19?21/.0-5338393+032-++3+9-8SA532+4125/80+-+7M.1996+/8?8/+8377-+717<323,:./?( `0/5,-:.6:S1+3+15325387325-;023..3604A873+,3439./03712-32/5 -+,-./01232412-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30' g.1+19-:.35+3 R19?30/+:393::-7726++8/7 K21/.0-535+3 P3/.0-535+3 YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 *0/<3883+6+,32=/25-:/004239/.063883-+,-./01232412,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883 :I:0393+3'9-8SA532+4125/80+-+7M.1996+/8?8/+8377-+717<323,:./?(V-::332 3+<8/+,-+7/5/8835;23439./03712-32-+:0-06:S1+3883-+,-./01232( Tabell 19 Forslag til indikatorer for lokal institusjonell sårbarhet med relevans for arbeidet med klimatilpasning *+:0-06:S1+380:I:039 *+,-./01232 R1996+/8?8/+8377-+7 T :0-88-+7:,38:19.1996+/8/23/8?8/+837732 T 60/2<3-,30/23/8?8/+,32:;2</2=30412.8-9/3+,2-+73232 039/0-:320 T,-:?3+:/:S1+3242//23/8?8/+ T <I773:/.:<3=/+,8-+7170-8:I+93,<I7735-2.:19=30 R1996+/89-8SA532+4125/80+-+7 T :0-88-+7:,38:19.1996+/89-8SA532+83,32 T 7S3++194A2-+7/59-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/5 418.35/8701??8U2-+7/ T 60/2<3-,-+7/53+153212,+/.1996+/89-8SA?8/+ T 60/2<3-,-+7/53+.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+ T :I:039/0-:.7S3++194A2-+7/5 9-8SA.1+:3.53+:562,32-+732-:/.:<3=/+,8-+73+ R1996+/80<323,:./?:/2<3-, T 60/2<3-,38:3/53+2-:-.1T17:;2</2=30:/+/8I:3JPQ@L T 7S3++194A2-+7/5;28-73<323,:./?:A538:32 N123+.3803/5-+,-./0123+3:19324123:8;00153241238-7732,30-..3S35+8-7 1??,/03203+/:S1+/830/88M17,/9;9/+</:323:37?;/+,231532:-.032M412 3.:39?38+/:S1+/83:?A2236+,32:A.38:32388328-7+3+,3(N12+13+41238-7732,30,32-91030:8-.023432/+:3726++8/7(V3+93:0:3+02/83.-8,3+32,/RQ@FPE [% ( *+,-./0121??:30030<26.015325-8,32412=/./2/.032/5,38:;5U233+:S3..8-:03 80 Jfr. www.ssb.no/kostra 104

93,.5/8-0/0-53-+,-./01232M17,38:;-++3=18,3412:8/70-8.5/+0-0/0-53-+,-./01232 :1917:;7-2968-7=30412:/993+8-7+-+793,+/:S1+/837S3++19:+-00:0/88( B;2,307S38,32&"((4'.<*=<.'<)22$'232,3030:3+02/80?13+7/0.1996+3+=/2 3+0-8:023..38-7/,9-+-:02/0-5./?/:-0300-8;,2-5393,153212,+30?8/+8377-+7(* RQ@FPE7-:,300/884128A++:607-40320-8:/983./03712-3+]4I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++3532+M+/06217+U29-8SA](a32=/29/+/80:;:8;00:/993+ 8A++:607-40320-8?8/+8377-+717.1996+/809-8SA532+/2<3-,( O0/++305-.0-7:026.06238038393+0-,3++3:/993+=3+73+32=5125-,0.1996+3+ =/27S120562,32-+732-:-+/23/8?8/+19.2-+7/23/832:1932:;2</2341242390-,-73.8-9/3+,2-+732(V30./+5U23-412=18,0-82/:M5-+,M48191(/(a324-+:,30-+73+ +/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..5-./+234323230-8( B;2,307S38,32=-.&#$#f38832,305-1532=/2<3037+30:19]7S3++194A2-+7:35+3] T-++3+.1996+/8?8/+8377-+732,305-.0-7/0.1996+3+-..39;,-:?3+:323-412=18,0-8/23/8?8/+=5-:,30329/2.320192;,32,329/+-..3A+:.32<3<I7738:3 38832/+,23412932412-++723?6042/.8-9/238/032032-:-.1562,32-+732(a38832-..3 =324-+:,30+13+,-23.0323835/+03+/:S1+/83,/0/M93+RQ@FPE7-2+13+0/88:19 -+,-23.03&.'7-3+-+,-./:S1+19.2-+7,3+73+323883],-:?3+:/:S1+:.680623+]-.1996+3+'E+,38:A.+/,32190-80/.-,34-+32038/+,<26.:TM+/062T17 42-8640:192;,32JHBNL-.1996+3?8/+3+:/23/8,38:19<83-++5-873053,,-:?3+:/:S1+(X-</:32321::=32?;/+0/738:3+19/03+.1996+3:19=/2?2/.:-: 412;7-,-:?3+:/:S1+-412=18,0-83+?8/+<3:039938:3./+5U230213+,3;7-,-:?3+:/:S1+17:;-412=18,0-8/+,23<3:039938:32(O0032?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+./+192;,32:19<8-2562,320:1960:/003412<8(/(481917:.23,.8/::-4-:323::19 ]+.-)"(-75)-](E+,383+,-:?3+:/:S1+327-000-80-80/.-,3++30I?3+192;,325-8.6++35U233+:3+02/8-+,-./012412562,32-+7/5?2/.:-:(V300332,32-910,/0/ :19-..3<8-2:I:039/0-:320-RQ@FPE38832:/9830-++?;/++3+9;03+/:S1+/80( B;2,307S38,32,-:?3+:/:S1+?;30932,30/8S320+-5;M-412=18,0-8 <I773<3:039938:32:19:./8:-.23/0<I7+-+7321??4A23:?;3+<I7+-+7:93::-7 412:5/28-79;03-412=18,0-8?21<83932:195-+,<38/:0+-+717481960:/00=30M 41238-7732,30-+73++/:S1+/83:0/0-:0-..325-./+<I773?;(a329;,307SA23: 81./83562,32-+732(V30/57SA23+,3=32+;2,307S38,32.1996+3+:2188332 =5125-,0.1996+3+4A2320-8:I+93,-+032+.1+021883+=1:,3+/+:5/28-7604A23+,3( E+:5/28-7604A23+,332:19237383+3+023?23+A2(V3032,3++3:19:0;2/+:5/28-7 412/0<I77304I88321443+08-73.5/8-030:.2/5(R1996+3+,2-532-..383+732 02/,-:S1+388<I7+-+7:.1+02188M93+?8-.032;:30-8/0<I7+-+7:<2/+:S3+: 373+.1+0218846+732323003241260:30+-+73+3(c/+73.1996+32=/2-..34;00?;?8/::,3++30-8:I+:46+.:S1+3+30032/012,+-+73+<83-++4A2093, <I773:/.:2341293+-"\\sJY2153+)%%&L( K;192;,30&"((4'.<*($<>%/)-'+"-/.<,'$'241238-7732,30-+73+1??,/0320 +/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..:193223835/+0-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V30+U293:035-.1993232-+,-./0123+234323201532:197S38,328A++:607-40320-8:/983./03712-3+ ]4I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++3532+M+/06217+U29-8SA](V304-+:8-.3538 +/:S1+/83:?A2236+,32:A.38:32:19./+7-+/:S1+/8323432/+:3?6+.0( B;2,307S38,32&"((4'.<*C)-)5#&.=7-2RQ@FPE-+73+,/0/:197S38,32 <323,:./?93273+32380(V303+3:0332:0/0-:0-...+I00300-8<2/++T17 105

68I..3:532+ [" (NI8.3:93++3+32/??1203232;28-70-8V-23.012/030412 :/946++::-..32=3017<323,:./?J0-,8-7323,-23.012/030412:-5-80<323,:./?L+;2,307S38,32<323,:./?:/2<3-,(P/??12032-+73+32-9-,8320-,-:01272/,230030-++ 910:-5-8412:5/2:,383+17:-..32=30:,383+/5<323,:./?:/2<3-,30M17</23-8-03+ 72/,910,30:193223835/+0-5;2:/993+=3+7(*0-883773241.6:30230030910 4I8.3:9/++3+:0-8:I+:/2<3-,M17-9-+,2372/,3+2/??12032-+719.2-+7:0/06:412,30<323,:./?:93::-73/2<3-,304,+%-,*./*.1996+3+3(V30<62,38-.3538?;:-.0 5U23968-7;-++/2<3-,3039/17:?A2:9;8-;2:2/??12032-+73+42/4I8.3:9/++3+ :19.6++30/1??:-06/:S1+3+-.1996+3+3(O53+06380./+9/+03+.3:37/0,3++30I?3+2/??12032-+7:260-+32-++/2<3-,3:-RQ@FPE( Tabell 20 Eksempel på bruk av indikatorer for institusjonell sårbarhet *+,-./012 @17+,/8 B1273 R1996+/8?8/+8377-+7' HA++:607-40320-84I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++3532+M+/06217 &Z\.2$-++< &Z).2$-++< +U29-8SA?32-++<I7732J)%%)L E+,38:A.+/,32190-80/.-HBNT192;,3:19<83-++5-873053, C[v )%v,-:?3+:/:s1+j:+-00412)%%%t%)l E+,383+:A.+/,32190-80/.-]4/23192;,3]:19<83-++5-873053, e e,-:?3+:/:s1+ R1996+/800-8:I+93,/0/+:5/28-7604A23+,3-<I773:/.324A8732 e e 71,.S3+0.1+02188?8/+ R1996+/89-8SA532+4125/80+-+7' @0-88-+7:19.1996+/89-8SA532+83,32 B3- s#v [) YS3++194A2-+7/59-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/5418.35/8701??8U2-+7/ W/ e `0/2<3-,30.1996+/89-8SA532+?8/+ W/ CZv [& `0/2<3-,30.1996+/8.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+ B3- \v [C @I:039/0-:.7S3++194A2-+7/59-8SA.1+:3.53+:562,32-+732- :/.:<3=/+,8-+73+ W/ [v [# R1996+/80<323,:./?:/2<3-, 60/2<3-,38:3/53+2-:-.1T17:;2</2=30:/+/8I:3JPQ@L B3- e 7S3++194A2-+7/5;28-73<323,:./?:A538:32 e e ;2:532.0-846+.:S1+3+]4123<I77-+7/5<2/++3217/+,2368I..32] %M"& %M)# J)%%)L F53227;3+,3' B3001,2-40:607-40320-846+.:S1+3+3]4I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++32M+/06217+U29-8SA]?32-++<I7732J)%%)L )[[.2 &C#.2 O.:39?38301532T:192-.0-7+1.-..332432,-7604I80412,-<;,381./8317 +/:S1+/83,/0/9/+7832T-+,-.32328-.3538/0@17+,/8.1996+3?;+13+192;,32 =/23+-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030?;8-+S393,38832<3,233++,30:19325/+8-7412 +12:.3.1996+32M93+:.1996+3+?;/+,23192;,32=/23+8/5323-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( 81 Se www.ssb.no/kostra/stt/faktaark.cgi 82 Andel norske kommuner med miljøvernansvarlig i 2000 (Bjørnæs 2002). 83 Andel norske kommuner med utarbeidet miljøplan i 2000 (Bjørnæs 2002). 84 Andel norske kommuner med utarbeidet klimahandlingsplan i 2000 (Groven og Aall 2002). 85 Andel norske kommuner som i 2000 oppga at de har innført bruk av miljøindikatorer eller miljøstyringssystemer (Bjørnæs 2002). 106

ZL )1T@5=;C2A@41B5F?5;=;C?1@41H1B>2A<?5 @41?FDG55?=;<=>2541FQF5?E?5 *,3041237;3+,3./?-003830=/25-412:A.0;4A8731???21:S3.030:4A2:034129;819 ;7-3+<3723?:93::-7:?3:-4-:32-+7/5]-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30]17]0-8?/:+-+7] 93,=3+:I+0-8+12:.3412=18,(*,3003/5:86003+,3./?-0038305-85-4A8731???21:S3.030:/+,23?21<839:0-88-+7d+398-7,30;<3:.2-533+-+,-./012</:32091,388 412562,32-+7/581./8:;2</2=30-412=18,0-842390-,-73.8-9/3+,2-+73217 7S3++194A2-+7/560:8-??:23,6:323+,3.8-9/0-80/.(*,30038-773217:;;562,323,3+?2/.0-:.3/+53+,38:3:968-7=303+/530:8-.0-+,-./012:I:039M17;562,323 41260:30+-+73+3412;0/-<26.:I:03930-/,9-+-:02/0-5317?18-0-:.3?21:3::32( Z(" O+01,380-+,-./01291,388 E80--++83,+-+73+8/+:32035-3+,"5)<,-+,-./01291,388(V3+?2/.0-:.3 </.726++3+4123+:8-.01,38-+75/2/0300-8:5/23+,3/2<3-,=/25U207S120?/2/88380 93,5;20?21:S3.0M93+,329/+=/20/00607/+7:?6+.060386..3+,3--+,-./01232 :19./+/583,3:/5;+3,:./8323781</83.8-9/91,3883217.19<-+323,300393, +/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..:198/2:37<2I03+3,?;.1996+3+-5;(a153,41.6:-5;20 /2<3-,<83,32412230030-++910;4-++342390-8-+,-./01232:1917:;./+46+7323-412<-+,38:393,.1996+/83<3:860+-+7:?21:3::32M+13:19-9/+730-8438832 41260:30032-+,-./01232</:320?;73+6-+3<"&.<),/0/( V3032-9-,8320-,17:;3++.2<$2<3726++38:34123+:8-.01,38-+7(V3032<3=15412 3++/:S1+/82/+732-+7/5.1996+326042/,323::;2</2=30-3+.8-9/?18-0-:. :/993+=3+7(O+:8-.2/+732-+7./+<26.3:-01:/993+=3+732(*3+'.#>"'.< :/993+=3+7./+3+:8-.2/+732-+7<26.3:0-8;,2A403,304/.0-:.3<3=1530412.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.M412,-9/+,/4;2423981./83]3.:023932]:197S32+3<8-2./9648320-73+323883+/:S1+/83388328/+,:,38:562,32-+732(X-,323./+3+:8-. 2/+732-+77-726++8/741273172/4-:./881.32-+7/5:0/08-7323::62:320-8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(X-,323./+,3++341293+412]153+42/T17T+3,]2/+732-+7 <26.3:-3+<"&.<?18-0-:.:/993+=3+70-8;53..3-+0323::3+412;0/1??.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7174;42/9:/993+=3+73+938819:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8.8-9/3+,2-+73217.8-9/0-80/.(c3+:153+42/T17T+3,0-8+U29-+73+./+=/3+ -+:02693+038846+.:S1+-412=18,0-87S3++194A2-+7/53++/:S1+/8.8-9/?18-0-..M =/23+:8-.0-8+U29-+7.8/23<3723+:+-+732-3+81./8?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7 JQpb2-3+948)%%&L(V/9;9/+=/-+,-./01232:19329324A8:1993412 :-06/:S1+3+81./80M17:1917:;./+4/+731??9-+,233+,2-+73215320-,81./80d +13:19-7S3+-9/+730-843883241260:3003273+6-+381./83,/0/(O+:8-. -+,-./0120-8+U29-+7=/25-/80:;7-00<3037+38:3+]')5)'+-.3"23"==]JS44-7623+ 6+,32L( 107

P37-1+/8-:3203 +/:S1+/83$ 781</83,/0/ +A?;@1204C0;?<5=D;[1E=;C X62,32-+7/5,3+237-1+/83 412,38-+73+/5 2-:-.1 J]2-:-.19/02-:3]L aai 2-:-.1 (?<?;@1204C04335=D;[1E=;C H1./83,/0/ 17 562,32-+732 H1./83 <3:860+-+7:T?21:3::32 H/5 2-:-.1 *+73+5-,323562,32-+732 Figur 26 Sammenhengen mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp V30325-.0-7;6+,32:023.3,3+.2-0-:.315327/+73+42/]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8 ]+3,3+42/T17T1??]562,32-+73+3(K;726++/5,3+:01236:-..32=303+:198-7732 -++3<I7,-153+42/T17T+3,-+,-./0123+332,30/880-,3+:S/+:3412/09/+:1203232 ]7/80]',305-8:-/0.1996+32:194/.0-:.5-8.6++31??8353:0123+37/0-53.1+:3.53+:328-.3538<8-2.8/::-4-:320:198/5T2-:-.1.1996+32175-_3532:/ [Z ( *-++83,+-+73+7/5-17:;3+4A2:03/+0I,+-+7/5=512,/+9/+./+<-+,3:/993+ 3+153+42/T17T+3,173++3,3+42/T17T1??</:320-+,-./01291,38853,=S38?/53+ :;./80#7-C.-B),#(.,-$#)(*0/<3883+6+,32=/25-5-:03+?2-+:-??91,388412 =512,/+9/+./+2/+732368-.381./8:/946++J,5:(-5;200-843883.1996+32L(X- <26.32/80:;309-+,23605/87-+,-./01232f,3:;./803153+42/T17T+3,/583,3,3 -+,-./0123+3f412;2/+7323.1996+32-023=153,./03712-32JS40/<3883+6+,32L' 8/52-:-.1 91,32/02-:-.1 =AI2-:-.1 V3032=3830-,3+:+/..192-:-.1412;1??8353')2.,$/).1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+73217$38832.8-9/0-80/.(H/+7:,3+3+3/.:3+=/25-4A201?? -+,-./01232412?21<839:./?-+7J/80:;,3++/0628-7317,3+:/946++:93::-73 :;2</2=303+LM93+:,3+/+,23/.:3+=/2-+,-./0123241235+30-8?21<8398A:+-+7 J/80:;-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30L(@0A2:02-:-.11??:0;253,.19<-+/:S1+3+/58/5 -+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030J38832=AI-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30L17.19<-+/:S1+3+/5 =AI+/0628-717:/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30( 86 Ett eksempel på en slik feilvurdering er en analyse av lokal sårbarhet i forhold til landbruket, der landbruket på Vestlandet og kyststrøkene i Nord-Norge kommer ut som mest utsatt for negative konsekvenser av klimaendringer. Dette begrunnes med at disse delene av landet risikerer mest forverring av forholdene for landbruk på grunn av mer nedbør om våren og høsten, redusert snødekke og relativt mindre forlengelse av vekstsesongen sammenlignet med andre områder i Norge. Motsatt kommer innlandskommunene på Østlandet ut som relativt sett mindre utsatt på grunn av redusert nedbør om høsten og vinteren, og relativt liten nedgang i snødekke sammenlignet med andre områder (O'Brien mfl 2003). Denne konklusjonen fremstår som urimelig først og fremst fordi man her har behandlet landbruket under ett og ikke tatt hensyn til den regionale fordelingen av høyst ulike produksjonsformer. Husdyrhold kombinert med grasdekke året rundt på Vestlandet gir for eksempel et langt mer robust landskap enn korndyrking og jorder uten plantedekke om vinteren på Østlandet. 108

"#$%%&<:*K$#$&"(.,-$#)*+"-*7*#"-,)-)*4,*&<$(.()##$2)*B%6-$#$&"*&"((4')-* K21<8398A:+-+7' *+:0-06:S1+388 :;2</2=30 H/5412.8-9/0-80/.17 0-8?/:+-+7 H/5412.8-9/0-80/. 388320-8?/:+-+7 aai412.8-9/0-80/.17 0-8?/:+-+7 K21<839:./?+-+7'+/0628-717:/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30 H/5412+/0628-738832 :/946++:93::-7 H/5412+/0628-717 :/946++:93::-7 aai412+/0628-717 :/946++:93::-7 Lav risiko Mooddeerraat t rri iissi iikkoo Høøyy rri iissi iikkoo O03.:39?38?;30.8-9/0-:.=AI2-:-.1:/946++./+5U2323-:38-5:,3:0-+/:S1+32-192;,32:19=/2-+53:0320-5-+032:?120:/+8377M:19./+<8-9/27-+/83+;2,30 7S38,32/+0/88,/73293,:-..320:+A,3..3M17:19-0-88377=/2,;28-760<I7,.1883.0-502/+:?1200-8<6,17:012/+,38/50-823-:3+,393,48I17?32:1+<-8(a325-8 9/+5U2360:/004123+.8-9/93::-7,1<<3802-:-.1.+I00300-83+,2-+732/5.8-9/30 J9-+,23:+AL17968-7+3,7/+7-062-:0:02A993+:194A873/5A.03,2-5:0144/57-4032( V3+-+:02693+03883.1<8-+73+938819153+42/T17T+3,17+3,3+42/T17T1?? -+,-./0120-8+U29-+73+<3:0;2-/0,3+:-:030-8+U29-+73+326041293093,0/+.3?; <26.-,3+726??3+:19.1993260:19]=AI2-:-.1.1996+32]M:195-/80:;=/2.1993042390-8:194A873/53+562,32-+753,=S38?/5153+42/T17T+3, -+,-./0123+3(@./8,3003.6++37SA23:M<30-+732,30/05-./+:120323938819,-::3 01./03712-3+3/5-+,-./01232(*0/<3883+6+,32=/25-?23:3+032030412:A.?;3+:8-. :12032-+7M,325-=/2<26.0=3+=18,:5-:<3037+38:3+3]237-1+/83]17]81./83] -+,-./01232:19:I+1+I9?;,3932.21+78303<3037+38:3+3]153+42/T17T+3,]17 ]+3,3+42/T17T1??](E883237-1+/83-+,-./0123232</:320?;+3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91,3883217+/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..:19./+<2I03:+3,?;.1996+3?8/+M,32,/0/17:;J-=153,:/.L320-87S3+738-7?;*+032+300(V381./83-+,-./0123+33230 605/87/5,3-+,-./0123+35-=/2,2A4030-2/??1203+M175-85U233+.19<-+/:S1+/5 0230I?32-+,-./01232' ]+I3].5/+0-4-:3203-+,-./01232</:320?;73+6-+381./83,/0/ 81./83S6:032-+732/541238-773+,3237-1+/83-+,-./012326042/]:.SA++]38832 932?23:-:34/78-73562,32-+732 932194/003+,381./83562,32-+732412;81./8-:323.1+.2303:;2</23192;,32 388324I:-:.31<S3.032M:1914033+,321??93,81./83:;2</2=30:./20 *0/<3883+6+,325-8,381./83-+,-./0123+3,324121403<U23932?237/5;5U23 :S3..?6+.03241281./83562,32-+732( Tabell 22 Skille mellom overnfra-og-ned indikatorer ( regionale indikatorer ) og nednefra-og-opp indikatorer ( lokale indikatorer ).;<=>2541I4A?<0,?C=4;2D?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 O853:830034819d O.:-:0323+,3 &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 R/2043:03,34819:1+32 O7+3./208377-+732/5 109

110 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+,2-+7-+3,<A2195;23+ O+,2-+7-+3,<A219 :199323+ O+,2-+7-+3,<A219=A:03+ O+,2-+7-+3,<A2195-+0323+ O+,2-+7-039?32/062=A:017 5-+032 O+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+A E.6004819d O+,2-+7-423.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+,2-+7--+03+:-030-3.:0239 +3,<A2 38538A?$:1+3293,4/23412 4819:./,32J601532 4819:1+3+3Ld3853:83003217 38535-4032 H1./83S6:032-+732/5.8-9/,/0/ X62,32-+7/52-:-.14124819 30032;2:0-,</:320?;.8-9/,/0/ @0129$:0129481 O+,2-+7-423.53+:/5 3.:02395-+, O+,2-+7--+03+:-030-3.:0239 5-+, H3+7,3.I:08-+S3 N12:.S388938819481174SU23 O7+3./208377-+732/5 :012960:/003192;,32 H1./83S6:032-+732/5.8-9/,/0/M?;</.726++/5 01?172/4-:.3:U2023..' 26=30:72/,175-+,230+-+7 @.23, R5-..83-23:.23,d O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+,2-+7-423.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+,2-+7--+03+:-030-3.:0239 +3,<A2 @+A:.23,d O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+A O+,2-+7-/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/732 @03-+T174S388:.23,d O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+,2-+7-423.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+,2-+7--+03+:-030-3.:0239 +3,<A2 O+,2-+7-/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/732 R/2043:03,32-:-.192;,32 O7+3./208377-+732/5 :.23,4/23601532,3./208/703 192;,3+3d4S388:.23+03293, =38+-+71532C%$C#72/,32d17 :/.0323++3+,35/::,2/76+,32 9/2-+:1+3 H1./83S6:032-+732/5.8-9/,/0/ O21:S1+ E+,38,I2./9/2.93, :012$:5U20:012321:S1+:2-:-.1 O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+,2-+7-423.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+,2-+7-/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/732 O+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+A R/2043:03,32-:-.1192;,32 O7+3./208377-+732/5 321:S1+:2-:-.1601532,3./208/703192;,3+3 [s E+,38=A:0?8AI-+7 E+,38=A:0=5303 H1./83S6:032-+732/5.8-9/,/0/ [s aai3:0321:s1+:2-:-.153,'<2/0003223+7m9i3:-80-s12,91++30m8-03127/+-:.9/032-/8317,;28-7,23+32-+7:72/,(

1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i:0393443.032 O+,2-+732-53.:0:3:1+73+: 83+7,3.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 73+32380 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer 88 *+42/:026.06273+32380 `0:8-???32?32:1+/5.8-9/7/::3242/91<-83.-8,32 F/?/5/2032 O0/<832-+7/5+I3/2032 O+,2-+7/5<-101?32 c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+,-7323562,32-+719 4/.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3,2-403+3 N12,38-+7/560:8-???32 02/+:?1209-,,38 W6:032-+7/581./8360:8-?? J:U28-741248I17<;0L H1./83562,32-+732/5.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer 89 412=18,30938819.8-9/17 :;2</2=30412/.063883 ]2-:-.1+U2-+732] *+42/:026.062' 02/+:?120 *+42/:026.062' 83,+-+732 *+42/:026.062' <I7+-+732 P37-1+/8:;2</2=30:562,32-+7 41202/+:?120-+42/:026.062 \% H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32 -++<I7732 O+,2-+7-+3,<A2:19:+A?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** g.1+19-:.35+3 @./003-++03.0?32-++<I7732 b3418.+-+7:4239:.2-5+-+7 R19?30/+:393::-73 @0-88-+7:,38:19.1996+/8 41260:30+-+732 9-8SA532+83,32 K21/.0-535+3 HA++:607-40320-84I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++3532+M+/06217 +U29-8SA H1./8./208377-+717./03712-:32-+7/581./8?21,6.:S1+ H1./83562,32-+73219.2-+7 :;2</2=3041268-.3 02/+:?120:I:03932( H1./83562,32-+73219.2-+7 /58A?:83,+-+7:+300M.2/4083,+-+73217,/99/7/:-+ E+,383+<3<I7738:381./8-:320- ]4/23192;,32] \" *,3+0-4-:32-+7/5<3<I7738:3-4/23:1+3+53,:0123:+A8/:032 \) H1./83562,32-+73219.2-+7 :;2</2=3093,=3+:I+0-8 :8/7237+ H1./83562,32-+73219.2-+7 42390-,-7A.1+19-:.605-.8-+7 YS3++194A2-+7/5 9-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/5 418.35/8701??8U2-+7/ X3,0/00.1996+/8 9-8SA532+?8/+ X3,0/00.1996+/8.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+ X3,0/002-:-.1T17 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:3JPQ@L 88 Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske, utvinning av råolje og naturgass, visse former for industri og bergverksdrift, transport og kommunikasjon. 89 Jordbruk, skogbruk, marine fiskerier, marin oppdrett og reiseliv. 90 Grovmasket vurdering gjort i forbindelse med Nasjonal transportplan for 2006-05 med egne vurderinger for følgende regionale enheter: Troms/Finmark, Nordland, Trøndelag/Vestlandet, Sørlandet/Oslofjord, Høyfjellet og Innlandet (jf Tabell 16). \" Q92;,3293,2-:-.14124819M2/:38832:0129M17:19-=3+=18,0-8K8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+:./8 23768323::19]4/23192;,32]( 92 Etter Norsk byggforskningsinstitutts oversikt over bygningstyper i faresonen. 111

P3/.0-535+3 >2:532.0-846+.:S1+3+ ]4123<I77-+7/5<2/++3217 /+,2368I..32] YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 B3001,2-40:607-40320-8 46+.:S1+3+3]4I:-:.?8/+8377-+7M.680629-++32M +/06217+U29-8SA]?32 -++<I7732( YS3++194A2-+7/5;28-73 <323,:./?:A538:32 E+,38:A.+/,32190-80/.- HBNT192;,3:19<83-++5-8730 53,,-:?3+:/:S1+ R1996+/800-8:I+93,/0 /+:5/28-7604A23+,3- <I773:/.324A873271,.S3+0.1+02188?8/+ @I:039/0-:.7S3++194A2-+7/5 9-8SA.1+:3.53+:562,32-+732- :/.:<3=/+,8-+73+ E+,383+:A.+/,32190-80/.- 4/23192;,3:19<83-++5-8730 53,,-:?3+:/:S1+( *0/<3883+1532=/25-7S12030:.SA++:190605/87/5,368-.3-+,-./0123+35-=/2,2A4030-,3041237;3+,3./?-003830(X-=/28/7053.0?;/0,34123:8;003237-1+/83 -+,-./0123+33283000-87S3+738-73d-9/+730-843883232,317:;0-87S3+738-73?; *+032+300:19.1996+3T388324I8.3:5-:30/88(X-5-8-9-,8320-,-7S3+6+,32:023.3/0 -+,-./0123+3325/8706093,0/+.3?;/0,34A2:0174239:0:./8:-+1319 238/:S1+3+3938819+/06217:/946++?;,3+3+3::-,3+17.1996+/83 -+:0-06:S1+32d,30:-:03-910:30+-+70-8]:-5-83]-+:0-06:S1+32.+I00300-842-5-88-73 127/+-:/:S1+3217,3081./83+U2-+7:8-530( O03+,38-7605/87/517:12032-+7938819237-1+/831781./83-+,-./01232<A2 </:323:37?;3+932,30/8S320562,32-+719.2-+7,/0/0-87/+717f5-.0-7:0f3+ 60?2A5-+7/5-+,-./0123+3-?2/.:-:412;4-++360=51271,]23:1+/+:],381./83 -+,-./0123+3=/2-3+81./8<3:860+-+7::/993+=3+7( F/<3883+1532-++3=18,32-+,-./01232:19-=153,:/.4239:0-88323+-)<.,$/ :;2</2=30(K13+73032;4;4239<"&.<5/2-/:S1+-412=18,0-830'.#>"'.<,* 2>)''"(#'$,,M4123.:39?38/+,383+/5].8-9/?18-0-:.:3+:-0-53]+U2-+732$* +"-B"<5*,$<*308/+,:7S3++19:+-00(V/5-84123.:39?383+:-,-73-+,6:02-.1996+32,32-+,6:02-3+=/2:U28-7:0123.8-9/7/::60:8-??.199360:19238/0-50:300932 :;2</233++308/+,:7S3++19:+-00(b/23-3+.38030-84388325-8,305U230/83193+ 4129412.C#"<4,,:;2</2=30M-=153,:/.412562,32-+732/5,3++/0628-73 :;2</2=303+f4123.:39?38:;2</2=30412:.23,388324819M,32,30./+5U23/.06380 ;1?3232393,+13+/<:186003:;2</2=30:723+:32( ]K21,6.030]/5;0/-<26.,3237-1+/83-+,-./0123+33268-.3]B1273:./20]:19 5-:32932179-+,23:;2</23.1996+32M:19-7S3+./+83,342390-83+:/9830 2-:-.1562,32-+753,<26./52-:-.19/02-:3+5-:0-"#$%%&<:(X3,;0/-<26.,3 81./83-+,-./0123+3177SA2381./83S6:032-+73217562,32-+732J+3,3+42/T17T1?? 0-8+U29-+73+L5-89/+.199342390-881./832-:-.1./2017932,30/8S3203 562,32-+73219.2-+781./8:;2</2=30172-:-.1412;1??8353+37/0-53.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+73217$38832.8-9/0-80/.(V-::332:;93+0;-++7;:19 6+,328/741268-.341293241281./83<3:860+-+732( 112

Z() K;0532:17?;8/+7:f19.1<8-+73+938819+/:S1+/831781./83 :;2</2=30:562,32-+732 @19190/80/88323,3--++83,+-+73+0-88/032-..32/993+3412?21:S3.030/05-46880 60./+1?32/:S1+/8-:3233+-+,-./01291,388(*+13+0-8438832.6++35-+1.=/.1993083+72393,+13:0A2232/9932M93+-/+,230-843883241260:3003:,30 605-.8-+7/5+I.6++:./?( V30./+5U23.6++:./?19+;0-8:0/+,3+M:194123.:39?38412039/30+/0628-7 <-1817-:.:;2</2=30(*/+,230-8438832./+,305U23.6++:./?:9/+738+;2,307S38,32 3+73+32388-++:-.0-;2:/.T5-2.+-+793./+-:932d+135-17:;4-++32-++3+412 039/30+/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(c3+-9/+730-843883232?21<839309/+738?;.6++:./?19,3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+/5.8-9/?;,2-51781./835/2-/:S1+32+;2,30 7S38,32+;0-8:0/+,(*+13+0-843883232-9-,8320-,?21<839309-+,23M53,/09/+3++; -..3=/226..30:I:039/0-:.;:/993+:0-8833.:-:0323+,3.6++:./?19+;0-8:0/+, 17.8-9/?;,2-5(*0/<3883+6+,32=/25-412:A.0;:I:039/0-:323.6++:./?:9/+7383+?;,3003192;,30( Tabell 23 Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for de foreslåtte sårbarhetsindikatorene (jf foregående tabell).;<=>2541i4a?<0,?c=4;2d?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 O+5-::1532:-.01532 +;0-8:0/+,J0-87S3+738-7?; *+032+300L `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ @0129$:0129481 `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ @.23, O+5-::1532:-.01532 +;0-8:0/+,J0-87S3+738-7?; *+032+300L `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ O21:S1+ O+5-::1532:-.01532 +;0-8:0/+,J0-87S3+738-7?; *+032+300L O+5-::.6++:./?19 ;2:/.$5-2.+-+7 `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ 1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i:0393443.032 H-03+1532:-.01532+;0-8:0/+, @5/..6++:./?19 ;2:/.$5-2.+-+7 c/+783271,3-+,-./01232.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-c.-b),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 73+32380 &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562,32-+732M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562,32-+732M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562,32-+732M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562,32-+732M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7 Tilgjengelig på Internett F-87S3+738-781./8:0/0-:0-..( N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 *+42/:026.06273+32380 Tilgjengelig på Internett F-87S3+738-781./8:0/0-:0-..( N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 113

562,32-+732.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Tilgjengelig på Internett. N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./83562,32-+73217,/0/-++:/98-+7M17350( S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ *+42/:026.062' 02/+:?120 F-87S3+738-7+/:S1+/82/??120 J./+8/:03:+3,42/*+032+300L N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 *+42/:026.062' 83,+-+732 Tilgjengelig på Internett mht veier R/+-++3<U23194/003+,3 -++:/98-+7/5,/0/81./80 Ikke god statistikk på andre tema *+42/:026.062' <I7+-+732 H-03+1532:-.01532+;0-8:0/+, N1260:30032238/0-50194/003+,3 81./83562,32-+732?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** g.1+19-:.35+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 R19?30/+:393::-73 41260:30+-+732 B/:S1+/832/??12032 41238-7732 N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 K21/.0-535+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 P3/.0-535+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260:30032238/0-503+.8381./83 562,32-+732 YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett R/+93,4A23+13 /2<3-,:.2353+,3 :I:039/0-:32-+7/581./83,/0/ X;291,38841260:30032:19?;?3.0483237/+7323+01,380:02/037-(NA2:07SA23:,30 3++/:S1+/8562,32-+719.2-+7,3+237-1+/83412,38-+73+/5:;2</2=30(V/.199329/+42390-830]B1273:./20]:19726??3232.1996+32300322-:-.1M412 3.:39?38-023726??32J8/5M91,32/0M=AIL(@;7S3++194A23:,3081./83178/+70 932726+,-73562,32-+732-=AI2-:-.1.1996+3+353,=S38?/55;23412:8/70-8 81./83-+,-./01232( *607/+7:?6+.030./+9/+03+.3:37010I?32/+/8I:3293,726++8/7-5;2 -+,-./01291,388' K;<.'2#',5:(-++3+h+:3.012J4123.:39?388/+,<26.L( K;,/)-#',5:(412:/908-73:3.0123217039/32( V3+4A2:030-8+U29-+73+32+/0628-7+1.9-+:0194/003+,3M93+:,3+:-:03 -++3<U2323+:/9830562,32-+7J?;0532:L/5/883:3.01232'/80:;3+562,32-+7/5,3+:/983,3:;2</2=303+81./80(Qpb2-3+948J)%%&L7-2013.:39?832?;]?;8/+7:] /+/8I:32'4125-+032062-:93174128/+,<26.JS4P$24-*8YL( *++7/+73+0-8;<26.35;291,38832/0+A..38-+,-./0123+38/2:371?32/:S1+/8-:323( V3032,-::3:19:./87-726++8/7412;562,323"(,3032532,0:023530; 7S3++194A23932,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562,32-+73281./80(a5-:,3237-1+/83 -+,-./0123+3-..332432,-7605-.830M9;9/+-:0A22372/,</:323:37?;8A:3 /+0/738:3219.2-+7=3+:-.0:93::-7=303+/5;7SA23:8-.381./83562,32-+732(@19 5-:32/50/<3883+153232,3048323039/32,32,3.6++:./?:93::-73 41260:30+-+73+3-..34688060320-8:03,3412;7SA23]?;8/+7:]562,32-+732(V3293, 32,30=38832-..3968-7;7S3++194A233+].19?8300]?;0532:/+/8I:3(V303217:; 6:-..32019=5128/+709/+-?2/.:-:5-8.6++3.199393,3+]?;0532:]/+/8I:3( V30=/25U20603+4122/993+3/5,3003?21:S3.030;?2A533+:8-.<3237+-+7M17-114

3++;9-+,2372/,;?2A536019,3<3237+-+73+39/+,/.1993242390-8./+7-726++8/7412;5387360=AI2-:-.1.1996+326042/3+]010/8]:;2</2=30:562,32-+7( Z(& @/9:?-88T17:693443.032 F-;293,9-8SA412:.+-+7=/25-:01::/0412=18,30938819;2:/.175-2.+-+732 :S38,3+]23008-+S30](.(#=$<<)++)&,)-32=380:3+02/83-412:0;38:3+/5:/9:?-8830 938819+/06217:/946++(@385:/70./+h+3443.05U23,19-+323+,3'4123.:39?38.1+:3.53+:32/5:+A2/:-3.:023902/:60:/003192;,3238832.1+:3.53+:32/5 /57-4032?;.8-9/7/::60:8-??4125-::30I?323+:-,-73-+,6:02-.1996+32(*,3483:03 0-843883+35-8,3+:/983,3:;2</2=3081./80:191403:05U23<3:03906042/3+23..3 3443.032M:19<;,3:6993232:371??17:19./+:./?3:/9:?-883443.032(a3232,305-.0-7/0:/9:?-883443.032-..39;41253.:83:93,23+3#4(3443.032(V30:-:03 4239.19932:193+23+]/,,32-+7]/5-?2-+:-??30-:1832033443.032M93+:,30 4A2:03-++3<U232/0#4C#,.'#$)<,*'6)*)++)&,)-*1??:0;2:194A873/5:/95-2.3 93881968-.34/.01232(@/9:?-883443.0325-814035U23653+03,3-,3+412:0/+,/0,3 7S32+3325/+:.38-7;41260:-+;2,307S38,32<;,3194/+717-++230+-+7( @/9:?-883443.032./+/203:37?;68-.39;032(V30./+5U23/03+-:183203443.0 412/+,232./2/.032J4123.:39?3842/]+37/0-5]0-8]?1:-0-5]3883253:3+08-7 412:032.303443.03+36015323+23+:69932-+7:3443.0L(@19?;?3.00-,8-7323M30 3.:39?38?;,3++30I?3+:/9:?-883443.0:197S32+317:;<3037+3::19%&"<"2$#&) :/9:?-883443.032M32.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+7+;2,307S38,32/523++-+742/,I2./9/2.(O+/5723+:30562,32-+7:19</230/2607/+7:?6+.0-968-7=303+412/0.8-9/3+,2-+73+35-84A230-883+72353.:0:3:1+75-88300.6++383,30-8.1+.86:S1+3+ /0.8-9/3+,2-+732./+7-9-+,23?21<8393293,321:S1+42/,I2./192;,32- B1273(O+932,30/8S320/+/8I:3:190/2=3+:I+0-8:/9:?-883443.032938819 +3,<A2M039?32/062MS12,/2032M=38+-+7?;03223+73017,I2.+-+7:9301,32./+7-,3+910:/0033443.03+d/80:;%&,/523++-+7JgI7/2,3+)%%&L( @/9:?-883443.032./+17:;1??:0;?;/$-&)($55)<T17,$<,.&#'$/7M,325-2.39-,832 170-80/.412.8-9/0-8?/:+-+71760:8-??:23,6.:S1+32./+7S3+:-,-7412:032.338832 9105-2.3=532/+,23(E23/8?8/+8377-+73+7-21::303.:39?38?;,3++30I?3+ :/9:?-883443.032(`042/30A+:.319;23,6:323.8-9/7/::60:8-??3+3./+,305U23 A+:.38-7;.1+:3+02323<18-760<I77-+73+'0-:3+0269M93+7-00/0:3+0269 <34-++32:37-+U2=303+/53+481960:/00385M./+,306042/3+0-8?/:+-+7::02/037-5U23A+:.38-7;48I003+I3<18-7320-8:023..38-78/+70/)&&42/:3+0269( V30323+23..3192;,32,32:/9:?-883443.03253+038-7./+1??023M93+,32.6++:./?:726++8/73032412:5/.00-8;:-=512,/+3443.03+5-85U23(V30:I+3:412 3.:39?386.8/20=5/:1932:/9:?-883443.03+4128/+,<26.:?21,6.:S1+-B1273/5 83+72353.:0:3:1+7?;726++/5A.0039?32/06217968-7=303+4121??<819:02-+7 /5+I3:./,3127/+-:932( *0/<3883+6+,32=/25-:I:039/0-:320,368-.3./03712-3+3/5:;2</2=30M,325-=/2 412:A.0;4;4239192;,32,32,30./+1??:0;:/9:?-883443.032'192;,32,32h+17 :/993:/946++:A.1+19-:..1+:3.53+:./+<8-?;5-2.30/5483233++h+4/.012( F/<3883+7-2726++8/74124A873+,373+323883.1+.86:S1+32'.<<):/946++:192;,32 =/20-8:I+38/03+,330?103+:-/83412;<8-60:/00412:/9:?-883443.032(K)$#)<$/),17 =-$(0-'0-$'2)')J4-:.32-17S12,<26.L32,305-./+./883](4<,$#7-C.-)]+;2,30 7S38,32.8-9/M-,3+412:0/+,/0,33260:/00412?;5-2.+-+742//8835;234-23 115

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aa7,/mr(e(mr/28:3+m@(p(r*(@18=3-9(j)%%"l'id8-9/0- =/+73-9?/_01+ 721^-+7:3/:1+-+N3++1:_/+,-/:06,-3,<I/0-93:32-3:14BQEEEXaPP BVX*,/0/i(T-"M))5$'2#*"+*?AIK@*938X*l4<6*:aa8M@I,+3IME6:02/8-/( Høydal, Ø. A. (2003): Telefonsamtale med Øyvind A. Høydal, ved Norges Geotekniske Institutt, Oslo. 27. august 2003. Høydal, Ø. A. og F. Sandersen (1999): Metode for å utarbeide faresoner i flomutsatte områder. NVE dokument Nr. 10/1999. Oslo: Norges vassdrags og energidirektorat. aai32mr(y(j"\s\l'b<>)]*)')-2$*"2*=<.'<)22$'2@*d"'#)&/)'#.'.<6#)-*/)5*"<>)3* "2*)')-2$4,C622$'2@*Q:81'`+-532:-030:4128/730( Høyer, K. G. (1993): Miljøproblemene endrer karakter. I: Høyer, KG. og Selstad, T. (red.): Den besværlige økologien. NordREFO 1993:3. Nordisk Institutt för regionalpolitisk forskning, København. Høyer, K. G. (1997): Sustainable Development. In: Brune, D. Chapman, D., Gwynne, M. (red.): The Global Environment. Weinheim: VCH Publ: 1185-1208. Høyer, K. G. (1998): En ny form for medvirkning?. Tidsskrift for et bærekraftig samfunn, 2/1998:23-33. Høyer, K. G. og Aall, C. (1995): Kommuneøkologi og miljøproblemer: Om det globale og lokale til og med på én gang. Tidsskriftet for samfunnsplanlegging, byplan og regional utvikling, 6/95, ss. 13-20. Høyer, K. G. og Aall, C. (2002): Lokale indikatorer for bærekraftig utvikling. Bærekraftindikatorenes teori og historie men med hvilken framtid? I Aall, C., Høyer, K. G. og Lafferty W. M. (red.): Fra miljøvern til bærekraftig utvikling i kommunene. Erfaringer med Lokal Agenda 21. Oslo: Gyldendal. aai32mr(y(j)%%%l'4#,.$'.c<)*j"c$<$,6*k*,b)*h"'m)=,*.'5*$,#*?(=<$m.,$"'#( K=(,(0=3:-:(`+-532:-03030-P1:.-8,3(XNT2/??120"$)%%%(@17+,/8' X3:08/+,:412:.-+7 Kaiser, A. og Storevik, H. (red.) (1997): Føre-var prinsippet: mellom forskning og politikk. Oslo: NENT. R/8IM`(MK2/00MD(Mc-0_=388MW(Ma1^120=MP(J)%%&L'QB)*d)("'#,-.,$"'* E'/$-"'()',.<*F4<')-.C$<$,6*?'5)R@@QKEDF3_=+-_/8P3?120&#Z(@65/MN-S- *:8/+,:'@160=K/_-4-_E??8-3,Y31:_-3+_3D199-::-1+J@QKEDL(V1^+81/,3, 4219=00?'$$^^^(:1?/_(127(4S$K21S3_0:$O5-$-+,3k(=098 Kelly, P.M., Agder, W.N. (2000): Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Faciliating Adaptation. Climate Change, 47: 325-352. R8353+MF(J23,(LJ"\\sL'F39/+69932/5K8/+'J?LDbJ@F-,::.2-40412 :/946++:?8/+8377-+7M<I?8/+17237-1+/8605-.8-+7"T)$\s( R18:=6:Ma(a(J)%%"L']BI3*KDDT:_3+/2-32](*Q)(.B)+,)N*D<$(.)'5-$'2)-*3* /$,)'#&.=)<$2*2-4''<.2*"2*="<$,$#&)*=-"#)##)-( =00?'$$^^^(_-_321(6-1(+1$</_.7216+,$039/=3403$ 126

Lafferty, W., Aall, C. og Seippel, Ø. (1998): Fra miljøvern til bærekraftig utvikling i norske kommuner: Hvor er vi med MIK - hvor skal vi med Lokal Agenda 21. Rapport 2/98. ProSus: Oslo. H/+7:=180MO(J)%%&L'iR1+02/:03+3:8/+,f3.:02395/++4A2-+7*303+,230.8-9/i( *++8377?;:39-+/230F.''<.'5),*$*:aZa@*F.'']*'.,4-*"2*#.(+4''*$*),*)'5-),* &<$(.(b3273+mz(9/-)%%&(e22/+7320/5b1273:5/::,2/7:t17 383.02-:-030:,-23.012/0( H-+,:30=MY(J)%%&L'I55-)##$'2*H<$(.,)*I5.=,.,$"'*.'5*J$,$2.,$"'*.,*,B)*L"M.<*.'5*K)2$"'.<*L)/)<N*L)##"'#*+"-*1"-O.6(K21@6:P3?120&$)%%&(Q:81' K21@6:$`-Q( H-:A3MR(P(MK23:0326,MQ(MYS3:05/+7Mc(17P/:96::3+MN(J)%%%L''%<.#,*=7* )&#$#,)-)'5)*,.&&"'#,-4&#>"')-*k*,$<,.&*+"-*4,#.,,)*C62'$'2)-MBb*T2/??120+2( Q"%)"%T"(Q:81'B12:.<I77412:.+-+7:-+:0-0600( H-5329/+MV(c(Mc32-,30=MP(J)%%)L'iD8-9/03/+,:1_-30I-+0=3`@@160=^3:0' 0=3_1+03k0412/237-1+/8/::3::93+0i(H<$(.,)*K)#).-MBM)"J&L'"\\T)"[( c/_y-88-52/ime(17x/,3.m@(j"\\#l'imm"4',$'2*+"-*mb.'2)*k*$'5$m.,"-#*+"-* #4#,.$'.C<)*5)/)<"=()',@*H1+,1+'F=3B3^O_1+19-_:N16+,/0-1+( c/00:1+mb(j"\s)l'.(bm<<#)&"'"($#&.*&.<&6<)-@h6+,'e./,39-428/730( cvj"\\)l'p"-#<.2*,$<*($<>%$'5$&.,"-)-*+"-*1"-2)(p/??120"42/23432/+:3726??3 4129-8SA-+,-./01232(P6+,:.2-5FT\%s(Q:81'c-8SA532+,3?/20393+030( cvj)%%"l'd"((4')=<.')'#*.-).<5)<(x3-83,32mft"&[)(q:81' c-8sa532+,3?/20393+030( c-:=/+mo(w(j"\s)l'em"'"($m#*+"-*"m$.<*d)m$#$"'#n*e<)()',#*"+*h"#,3^)')+$,* I'.<6#$#(B3^q12.'K2/3732( c-0_=388my(j"\\zl'nk21<839:/+,n6+,/93+0/814@6:0/-+/<83v35381?93+0 *+,-_/012:](4#,.$'.C<)*d)/)<"=()',M518(CM+2("(G3:0@6::3kM`R'W1=+ Y6-83I( Moss, R. H., A. L. Brenkert, et al. (2001): Vulnerability to climate change. A quantitative approach. Prepared for the US Department of Energy. Springfield: National Technical Information Service. http://www.pnl.gov/globalchange/pubs/vul/doe%20vcc%20report.pdf ct8832mn(mh36?380mc(j23,(lj"\\[l'em"*,.-2),#]*2".<*+4'm,$"'#]*.'5*"-$)',"-#( B3^q12.'@?2-+732( BcPJ"\\CL'1"-5$#&)*J$<>%$'5$&.,"-)-(aA2-+7:60./:0(RA<3+=/5+'B12,-:. c-+-:0322;,( NOU 2001:31 Når ulykken er ute. Om organiseringen av operative rednings- og beredskapsressurser. Oslo: Statens forvaltningstjeneste. BU::MH(Q(J4120=_19-+7L'QB)*-"<)*"+*$'#,$,4,$"'#*+"-*.5.=,.,$"'*,"*M<$(.,)* MB.'2)N*L$,)-.,4-)*-)/$)O*.'5*.*+-.()O"-&*+"-*.'.<6#$#]*O$,B*=.-,$M4<.-*-)+)-)'M)*,"*1"-O.6(N1238A?-76?6<8-:320/20-..386+,32?21:S3.030]D8-9/03D=/+73-+ B12^/I'E+E+/8I:-:14O_1+19-_/+,@1_-/8*9?/_0:/+,E,/?0/0-1+:]M D*DOPQ( 127

O Brien, K., G. Aandahl, G. Orderud og B. Sæther (2003): Sårbarhetskartlegging et utgangspunkt for klimadialog. T<.'N*Q$5##&-$+,*+"-*.(+4''#=<.'<)22$'2]* C6=<.'*"2*-)2$"'.<*4,/$&<$'2MJ#L'")T"s( QODVJ"\\CL'E'/$-"'()',.<*$'5$M.,"-#(QODV_123:30(K/2-:'QODV P1/8,MH(MF(O(@./673+M@(b38,2-+7MF(XU2-+7:0/,MP(O+73:3017O(W(NA28/+,M J)%%)L'M)'.-$"#*"+*.''4.<*.'5*#).#"'.<*-4'"++*+"-*1"-O.6*C.#)5*"'*M<$(.,)* #M)'.-$"#*+"-*:aXa3Y9(930(+1P3?120"\$%)RH*cE(Q:81'930(+1 @37+3:0/9MH(J"\\\L'E'/$-"'()',.<*T)-+"-(.'M)*?'5$M.,"-#@*I*#)M"'5*)5$,$"'* '",)@O+5-21+93+0/8V3?/2093+0K/?32:(K/?32+1s"( @385-7MO(J)%%"L'F4-5)-$'2*./*,$<#&455#&"((4')')#*&<$(.=<.')-@Q:81'E@ D-5-0/:( @NFJ)%%%L'K)54&#>"'*./*&<$(.2.##4,#<$==*$*1"-)2@P/??120"s%[')%%%(Q:81' @0/03+:412623+:-+7:0-8:I+( @./673+MF(Mc(E:026?MH(E'P1/8,/+,F(O(@./673+MJ)%%)L'M)'.-$"#*"+* )R,-)()*=-)M$=$,.,$"'*"+*54-.,$"'*8*.'5*Z*5.6#*+"-*1"-O.6*M.4#)5*C6*M<$(.,)* MB.'2)@930(+123?120)"$%)RH*cE(Q:81'930(+1 @9-0Mb(M@.-++32Mc(G(J)%%)L']E,/?0/0-1+1?0-1+:-+/72-_68062301_8-9/03 _=/+73'E0I?1817Ii(J$,$2.,$"'*.'5*I5.=,.,$"'*,-.,)2$)#*+"-*A<"C.<)*HB.'2)M s'[#t""c( @0/03+:./20532.J)%%&L'd.,.C)#&-$/)<#)N*#&-)5&.-, =00?'$$^^^(:0/0./20(+1$:0/+,/2,$:1:-$=098{&C$:.23,$@.23,(=09 @0328-+7ME(J"\\\L']F=3E??2/-:/814@6:0/-+/<-8-0I':193?21<839:/+,?1::-<83 23:?1+:3:](L"M.<*E'/$-"'()',M518(CM+2()M"""T"&C( @I7+/MH(17R(Qob2-3+J)%%"L'F$-&'$'2)-*./*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-*$*1"-2)( JQ??:69932-+7:2/??12042/.8-9/:39-+/2-Q:81M&%(T&"(1.01<32)%%%(L( D*DOPQT2/??120)%%"'"(Q:81'D*DOPQ$`-Q F3-78/+,MW(J)%%)L'"#$"%&"'"($#&)*)++)&,)-*./*)&#,-)(,*/0-*$*1"-2)*k*)'*#,45$)*./*)++)&,)-*$*,$5*"2*-"(*./*'6,,7-#"-&.')'*899:(XNT2/??120s$)%%)(@17+,/8' X3:08/+,:412:.+-+7( F3-78/+,MW(17E/88MD(J)%%)L'L"&.<*&<$(.3*"2*)')-2$=<.'<)22$'2@*1")'*'6)-)* '"-5)4-"=)$#&)*"2*'"-5.()-$&.'#&)*)-+.-$'2)-(XNT+10/0)$%)(@17+,/8' X3:08/+,:412:.-+7( F1532A,J"\\\L'I-).<C-4&*"2*#$&-$'2*$*+<"(4,#.,,)*"(-75)-(P30+-+7:8-+S32 "$"\\\(Q:81'BXO Turner, R.K. (ed.) (1993): Sustainable Environmental Economics and Management. Principles and Practice. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, UK. XU2-+7:0/,MP(O(17O(W(NA28/+,J)%%)L'M)'.-$"#*"+*.''4.<*.'5*#).#"'.<* -4'"++*+"-*1"-O.6@*^.#)5*"'*M<$(.,)*#M)'.-$"#*+"-*:aXa3Y9(Q??,2/7:2/??120+2( "%T)%%)M930(+1P3?120"\$%)RH*cE(Q:81'BXO G/+7MH(J"\\sL'D"((4'.<)*#,6-$'2#$'5$&.,"-)-*+"-*C0-)&-.+,$2*4,/$&<$'2@* K.=="-,*+-.*#.(.-C)$5#=-"#>)&,*()<<"(*&"((4')')*d-.(()']*P<)#C)-2]*L$)-]* 128

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