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4 .;;I4D< LISTE OVER TABELLER... 5 LISTE OVER FIGURER...5 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SAMMENDRAG... 7 SUMMARY INNLEDNING INSTITUSJONER OG KLIMATILPASNING KLIMA, INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET OG OM DET Å BINDE SAMMEN DET GLOBALE OG DET LOKALE LOKALE INSTITUSJONELLE SYSTEMER LOKAL MILJØVERNFORVALTNING SOM NØKKELINSTITUSJON KLIMAMODELLER OG USIKKERHET GLOBALE KLIMAMODELLER REGCLIM SCENARIEUTVIKLING FOR NORDEN MULIGHETER FOR LOKAL NEDSKALERING SKISSE TIL ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER NORSKE FORSØK MED LOKALE MILJØ- OG BÆREKRAFTINDIKATORER FORSØK PÅ Å UTVIKLE LOKALE INDIKATORER PÅ KLIMAOMRÅDET OPPBYGGING AV ET LOKALT INDIKATORSYSTEM FOR KLIMATILPASNING GJENNOMGANG AV KONKRETE INDIKATORER NATURLIG FYSISK SÅRBARHET NATURLIG BIOLOGISK SÅRBARHET SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAPOLITIKK SAMFUNNSØKONOMISK SÅRBARHET I FORHOLD TIL KLIMAENDRINGER INSTITUSJONELL SÅRBARHET DRØFTING AV FORUTSETNINGER FOR BRUK AV DET FORESLÅTTE INDIKATORSYSTEMET EN TODELT INDIKATORMODELL PÅ TVERS OG PÅ LANGS OM KOBLINGEN MELLOM NASJONALE OG LOKALE SÅRBARHETSVURDERINGER SAMSPILL- OG SUMEFFEKTER LOKAL KLIMAPOLITIKK SOM FØRE-VAR POLITIKK OM BRUK AV INDIKATORMODELLEN I LOKALT KLIMAARBEID REFERANSER

5 LISTE OVER TABELLER Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003) Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003) Tabell 6: Eksempel på andel dyrka mark etter erosjonsrisikoklasser på kommunenivå (Nannestad kommune) Tabell 7: Forholdet mellom fysiske prosesser og klimapådriv forslag til indikatorer Tabell 8: Indikatorer for overvåking av det biologiske mangfoldet (Direktoratet for naturforvaltning) Tabell 9 En rangering av ulike sektorers økonomiske bæreevne til å tåle klimaavgifter og/eller gjennomføre egne klimatilta ( lavest indeks indikerer mest sårbare næringer) Tabell 10 Andel sysselsatte innen ulike næringer, eksempel for Sogndal (2001) Tabell 11 Utslipp av karbondioksid fra transport etter utført transportarbeid (Holtskog og Rypdal 1997) Tabell 12 Utslipp av klimagasser fra transport per person for Norge (1999) og Sogndal (2000), tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter per person og år Tabell 13 Næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer Tabell 14 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer.97 Tabell 15 Mulige utslag av klimaendringer med relevans for transportsektoren (Fjeld mfl 2002) 98 Tabell 16 Oppsummering av konsekvensvurdering for transportformer av mulige klimaendringer. Høyere tall indikerer større negativ konsekvens (etter Fjeld mfl 2002) Tabell 17 Eksempel på sårbarhetsindikatorer for ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg Tabell 18 Bygningstyper i faresonen ved store snølaster (Lisøe mfl 2000) Tabell 19 Forslag til indikatorer for lokal institusjonell sårbarhet med relevans for arbeidet med klimatilpasning Tabell 20 Eksempel på bruk av indikatorer for institusjonell sårbarhet Tabell 21 Risikomatrise for å sortere ut klimamessige høyrisiko kommuner Tabell 22 Skille mellom overnfra-og-ned indikatorer ( regionale indikatorer ) og nednefra-ogopp indikatorer ( lokale indikatorer ) Tabell 23 Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for de foreslåtte sårbarhetsindikatorene (jf foregående tabell) 113 Tabell 24 Samfunnsøkonomisk sårbarhet i forhold til klima LISTE OVER FIGURER Figur 1 Prinsippmodell for lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer Figur 2 Oppløsningsgraden i de globale klimamodellene Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003) Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003) Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002) Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002) Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994) Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995) Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred

6 Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager ) Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme Figur 15 Sammenhenger mellom klima og samfunn som grunnlag for utforming av en lokal klimatilpassings indikatormodell Figur 16:*A-4''<)22)'5)*("5)<<*+"-*.'.<6#)*./*<"&.<*#7-C.-B),*$*),*)'5-),*&<$( Figur 17: Elvestrekk klassifisert som flomutsatte (strekninger for flomsonekartlegging) Figur 18: Oversikt over kartlagte kvikkleireområder Figur 19: Kartlagt skredfare på landsbasis Figur 20: Eksempel på kartblad over kartlagt erosjonsfare ved høstpløying Figur 21: Eksempel på 10 års flomsonekart for Elverum nord Figur 22: Internettbasert kartverktøy for skredfare Figur 23 Endringer i vekstsesongens lengde i løpet av perioden 1982 til 1999 (Høgda mfl 2001) 86 Figur 24: Endring i forekomst av moser mellom to registreringsrunder med 5-års mellomrom på 1990-tallet (Økland mfl 2001) Figur 25 Eksempel på lokalt biomangfoldskart Figur 26 Sammenhengen mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp Figur 27 Vurdering av usikkerhet og forskjeller i grunnlag for begrunnelse av utslippsreduserende tiltak og klimatilpasning

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9 7S38,32/+0/88,/73293,:-..320:+A,3..3M17: =/2,;28-760<I7, /+:?1200-8<6,17:012/+,38/ :3+,393,48I17?32:1+<-8(a /+5U2360:/ ,1<<38.8-9/93::-72-:-.1'.+I ,2-+732/5.8-9/30 J9-+,23:+AL ,7/ :0:02A993+:194A873/5A.03,2-5:0144/ ( Regionale og lokale sårbarhetsindikatorer *0/< ,32=/25-: /T17T+3,-+,-./01232J]237-1+/83 -+,-./01232]L17+3,3+42/T17T1??-+,-./01232J]81./83-+,-./01232]L(X-=/28/ ?;/0,34123:8; /83-+,-./ S d-9/ ,317:;0-87S ?;* : T388324I8.3:5-:30/88(V ;=/.8/20412:37/0-+,-./ / ,0/+.3?;/0,34A2: :0:./8: /:S /06217:/946++?;,3+3+3:-,3+17 &"((4'.<)-+:0-06:S1+32d,30:-:03-910: ]:-5-83]-+:0-06:S1+32.+I /+-:/:S1+3217,3081./83+U2-+7:8-530(O03+, /87/ ,38-7: /83-+,-./ /83-+,-./01232<A2</:323 :37?;3+932,30/8S320562, ,/0/0-87/+717f5-.0-7:0f3+60?2A5-+7 /5-+,-./ ?2/.:-:412; =51271,23:1+/+:,381./83-+,-./ =/ /8<3: ::/993+=3+7( "#$%%&'*P"-#<.2*,$<*-)2$"'.<)*$'5$&.,"-)-*"2*<"&.<)*$'5$&.,"-)-*+"-*/4-5)-$'2*./* <"&.<*&<$(.#7-C.-B),*.;<=>2541I4A?<0,?C=4;2D?=;<=>2541?1 &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 R8-9/<3: ,-./ O21:S1+ 1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i: O+, :0:3:1+73+: O+, :0/5/ ,3 O+,2-+7/5<-101?32.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer med særlig høye utslipp av klimagasser per enhet av verdiskaping *+42/: `0:8-???32?32:1+/5.8-9/7/::3242/91<-83.-8,32.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer som er særlig utsatt for virkninger av klimaendringer *+42/: ' 02/+:?120 *+42/: ' 83, P37-1+/8:;2</2=30:562, /+:? /: S <-+,38:393, B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+ H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32 -++<I7732 c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+, , /.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3, N12,38-+7/560:8-???32 02/+:?1209-,,38 W6:032-+7/581./8360:8-?? J:U I17<;0L c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+, , /.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3, H1./83562, :;2</2= /+:?120:I:03932( H1./83562, ,+-+7:+300M.2/4083,

10 *+42/: ' <I O+, ,<A2:19:+A?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** b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b/ ,305U230/ C#"<4,,:;2</2=30M-=153,:/ , /5,3++/ :;2</2=303+f4123.:39?38:;2</2=30412:.23, M,32,30./+5U23/ ;1? ,+13+/<:186003:;2</2=30:723+:32( Sårbarhetsvurderinger X3,;0/-<26., /83-+,-./ /+9/ ]1"-2)#&.-,]:19 7SA21::-:0/+,0-8;-,3+0-4-: ,23:;2</ ?; ,+30+-5;(X3,;0/-<26.,381./83-+,-./ SA2381./83S6: , ,3/+0/0093:0:;2</ M5-89/ <"&.<)2-:-.1./ ,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562, (V-::332:;93+0;-++7; :196+,328/ /83<3: ( *607/+7:? /+9/+03+.3:37010I?32/+/8I:3293,726++8/7-5;2 -+,-./01291,388'?;<.'2#M,5:(-++3+h+:3.012J4123.:39?388/+,<26.L?;,/)-#M,5:(412:/908-73: /32 10

11 V3+4A2:030-8+U / :0194/003+,3M93+:,3+:-: <U2323+:/ ,32-+7J?;0532:L/5/883: '/80:;3+562,32-+7/5,3+:/983,3:;2</2= /80(V3++3:-:030I?3/+/8I:35-8+A,53+,-75-: :.562,32-+7/5<8(/(:69T17:/9:? ,3: :3 :;2</2=30:562, ( Usikkerhet *++7/ ;<26.35;291,38832/0, /83-+,-./ /2:37 1?32/:S1+/8-:323(V3032,-::3:19:./ /7412;562,323 =3+:-.0:93::-7=303+/5;7S3++194A23932,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562, /80 93,0/+.3?;;4; /83-+,-./01232(c3,,/73+:.6++:./?::0/06:32, ;7S3++194A ?8300]?;0532:]T/+/8I:3(V303217:;6: =5128/+709/+-?2/.:-: ,3+]?;0532:]T/+/8I: : ( V3032.+I0030:0126:-..32=300-8,304123:8;003-+,-./012:I:03930(N12,304A2:0332,30, ,36:-..32=303+.+I :?A2:9;830"(.8-9/3+, /.0-: :03,d17-+3:03197/+7=512:012,3++33+, U23(V32+3: :?A2:9;83019=153, , /4-:.3+"-5)<$'2)'/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(X-,32332,30.8/20/ /9/ :./?19 ;2:/.T :412=18,+;2,307S38, /5.8-9/3+,2-+732( V30037S38,32:U28-7A.1:I: M38832, =/2./80,3++/ <-1817-:.3:;2</2=303+(X-,32332,30:?A2:9; ,:./832-+7/ /83 +3,0-881./83.8-9/5/2-/:S1+32M,32,30-9/ ?; ,/0/( Sårbarhetsvurderinger i forbindelse med kommunal planlegging *+,-./01291,3883+=/2:199;8f-:-:03-+:0/+:f; ;-3+<"&.< <3: ::/993+=3+7(*, :;3+46+.:S1+-,-/ ,30 81./ /:S1+/83d/80:;:-7+/832]1??1532]-:I:03930(V :/993+=3+73+,325;2-+,-./01291, :0;2:1993:023835/ ;<3,23 <3: :6+,328/730-,3+<.'2#$&,$2)*=<.'<)22$'2)'*81./80(V3003:.S32-?2/.:-: /993+3/ /8?8/ ?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+M17 194/ :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:194239:0;2:19:U /+03- :/993+=3+793,:;2</2=30:562, /17.8-9/? '-L.1996+/8?8/ d--L.1996+/89-8SA / L <323,:./?:/2<3-,(V3+81./83?8/ ?;-,3++3:/993+=3+73+./+0/ =18, ' 03.:0,383+/ ?8/ /4-: ,38?8/ /0-: ,38?8/+32J4123.:39?389-8SA532+?8/+M.8-9/?8/+1(/(L /23/8,383+M:19-7S3+7-22/ :?8/ :3.53+:6023, R1996+/8?8/ =18,3217:; =-"#)## :197S38,32 =512,/+17-= /,-++<I / :: :

12 ?8/+/2<3-,30M601532, :.2/53+3:19?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+: ??(O0/ :1932:5U ,3++3:/993+= )'#)#'$,,), /8?8/ <323,:./?:?8/ (V34I8.3:5-:3 <323,:./?:/5, =/2600/83T :/993+= :-738:3: =18, /83?8/+32(X-,3237S3++194A23:, /832-:-.117 Lokal miljøvernkompetanse som avgjørende faktor V ;2562, ;4239=353/0,3+&"((4'.<)*($<>%/)-'="<$,$&&)' +129/805-8=/3+'%&&)<-"<<)-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V30:I+3: ;=35,3/0.8-9/0-8?/: =/:0A2:07S3++19:8/7:.2/4081./80=5-:0-8?/:+-+7:3003: /?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7(a5-:-..3./+.8-9/0-8?/: <8-23,6: :-5-80<323,:./?:/2<3-, < /23/8?8/ J4123.:39? ;;83773< : ,3L(*..39-+:032, ,3+ :8-..1< ;608A: :I :8-??: ?/:+-+7: /? (O : /+7: =/2,3 :-:03;23+30/001??60412, ; /8.8-9/? ( O24/ ,/2<3-,3093,.1996+/83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32:;538:19 /2<3-,3093,,308/+705-,323/+8/703H1./8E73+,/)"T/2<3-,3017/2<3-,3093, 3+<U23.2/ :32/0: : /89-8SA532+83,3232=380 /57SA23+,3412:?A2:9;83019=5125-, :./83+7/:S323:37932/ SA? (V30:I+3: ;/+0//0?103+:-/ /003+,3 3+7/:S /8017:;+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732/5=3+7-7/5=5125-, =/2: :23::62: ,+3017: ?3+,3 9-8SA532+/2<3-,d-?2/.:-::?A2:9; =/20-8:/ SA532+2;,7-532( Lokal klimatilpasning som føre-var :?A2:9;830"(.8-9/3+, /.0-:.3.:-:03232M /093++3:.3:./?03 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/:: A:3+,3;2:/.M /0-8?/:+-+7/880-,5U23 : I :?A2:9;830196:-..32=30(V :;5U233+6:-..32=30/5?2-+:-?-388./2/.032M:19+U2:/ ,6:323: (V3+?2-+:-?-38836:-..32=303+7S38,32:?A2:9;83019=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;60 81./80(N12,-5/2-/:S U23:;?/:::01217,305-85U ;:- :-..320=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;6081./80M5-83+= /8.8-9/? ;003412=18,3: ,36:-..32=30'3+ +.2<$26:-..32=30:197S38,32=512,/+81./8:/ <8-2/9930/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M173+="<$,$#&6:-..32=30:197S38,32=512,/+81./8:/ <8-i2/9930i/542/5U :03,35U238:3/5+/:S1+/83.8-9/?18-0-:.30-80/ /7412;=35,3/081./8.8-9/? ,32412-?2/.:-:9;5U233+4A23T5/ ? ( P%-)3/.-*=-$'#$==),: ,3,-93+:S1+324#$&&)-B),M17/06:-..32=303+ :./8.1993($<>%),0-871,3(`:-..32=307S38,32?; ;,32',307S38,32<;,3 6:-..32=3019;2:/.T :412=18,176:-..32= /+730/5 +37/ SA :194A873/593++3: ?(N12/04A23T5/2 12

13 ?2-+:-??30:./ /+53+,38:3.+I0032,30:375-, /519/0 6:-..32=303+:./87S38,39-8SA?21<83932/5$--)/)-#$C)<./2/.032( V I:3+,3B/"-5.'4A23T5/2T?2-+:-??30:./8/+53+,3:-?2/.:-:(j U ;5-:30-84A23T5/2?2-+:-??30-3+/ /:S /8?8/ :1930:3+02/ ,,38-412=18,0-8<;,3 60:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/:+-+7(*, A,53+,-75-:17:;/ ;7SA23:$*#,.'5*,$<;7S3++194A23,3:/993?8/+?21:3::3+3M+13 : :0,23-32:3719;:3003/50-8: /,9-+-:02/ A.1+19-:.323::62:32f-4A2:03197/+70-8,30;7SA2381./83 #7-C.-B),#/4-5)-$'2)-d-+3:03197/+70-8;412=18,3:370-8: , , ;7S3++194A ?/:+-+732( V3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;30&.'+1.:3003:-:0/+,0-8+U2:/70]/83+3];7SA23 81./83:;2</2=30:562, f7-00,3<3723+: :197S38,326:-..32=30 190/801532f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idere arbeid P/ ;20/2<3-,0-88/ :03+,-71?32/:S1+/8-:32-+7/5 -+,-./01291,3883+(V = ?21:S3.030;?2A536091,3883+( V ??7/53:19<A24A873:1??30032/05;20?21:S3.032/5:860030( N12=;? :325;2-+,-./01291,388:;8/ /0, / ; 7;42/91, ,38860?2A5-+7M412,3293,;=/ /7412; /8-4-: ,-./01291,3883+4/.0-:.35+32;<-,2/-/2<3-,3093,; :0I2.3+12: :-++:/0:-/2<3-,3093,;0-8?/::3:37.8-9/3+,2-+732( 13

14 $BEE21Q F=-:23?120-:?/2014/S1-+0-+:0-0603?21S3_00=/0-:_/22-3,160-+_188/<12/0-1+ E,9-+-:02/0-1+Mb3273+L(G-0=-+0=3:_1?3140=-:?21S3_0M/:3?/2/03:6<T?21S3_0-:,34-+3,_1+_ =3-+: /8,-93+:-1+14_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+(QB)*=4-="#) 140=3?21S3_023?1203,=323-:0^1418,'01?215-,3/_1+_3?06/8_8/2-4-_/ ]-+: / /<-8-0I]/+,]/,/?0/0-1+]^-0= _301B12^37-/+ _-2_69:0/+_3:d/+,:3_1+,8IM01,35381?/+-+,-_/012</:3,91,38412/::3:: _/82-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I^-0=237/2, _8-9/03_=/+73:/+, /0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:(bI]_8-9/03?18-_-3:]^393/+:02/037-3:/+,93/:623: 0123,6_339-::-1+14_8-9/037/:3:( Dual indicator approach Q62:0/20-+7?1-+0=/:<33+0=3238/0-538I^-,3T93:=3,/::3::93+0:0=/0=/53 /823/,I<33+9/,3^-0=-+0=323:3/2_=?2172/993]P37-1+/8D8-9/03 V35381?93+0`+,32Y81</8G/29-+7]JP37D8-9L/+,/?/2/8838-+,-_/012?21S3_0 /0D*DOPQ(*+162^12.^3=/5302-3,01=-7=8-7=00=233-::63:' - a1^,1_8-9/03_=/+73:/443_0/81_/8_ i,-23_08i/+,-+,-23_08ie - a1^,193/:623:0123,6_30=339-::-1+14_8-9/037/:3:/443_0/81_/8 _ Ie - G=/0-+: /8_/?/_-0I,13:/81_/8_ I=/5301/8835-/030=3 +37/ _0:14_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,93/:623:0123,6_30=339-::-1+14 _8-9/037/:3:e * /0-1+/88-032/0623M0=3:3.-+,:14-+,-_/012:=/53<33+8/<3883, /4<')-.C$<$,6*$'5$M.,"-#(F1_8/2-4I0=3:3-::63:-+0=3<3:0?1::-<83^/I^3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3,<30^33+,B-))*M.,)2"-$)#1481_/ /<-8-0I-+,-_/012:' "( +/062/8?=I:-_/8/+,<-1817-_/ /<-8-0I )( :1_-1T3_1+19-_568+32/<-8-0I^-0=237/2,01_8-9/03?18-_-3:/+,_8-9/03 _=/+73: &( -+: / /<-8-0I F=3#4(140=3:3-+,-_/012:^-88:/I:1930=-+7/<1600=3010/ /<-8-0I14/ 81_/8_ I(D1+_ : / /<-8-0IM^3=/53_=1:3+0141_6: 1+?18-0-_/8:I:039:f-(3(0=396+-_-?/8-0I/:/?18-0-_/8/+,/,9-+-:02/0-53<1,If ^=323-+,-_/012:^168,<3/ :384412:023+70= =3-+: /8 _/?/_-0IM/00=3:/930-93/:-+,-_/012:9123:?3_-4-_/88I^-8841_6:1+0=3 _/?/_-0I01_/22I16081_/8_8-9/03/,/?0/ :(F=3.3I-+: /8:I:039: /230=3+'96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7M96+-_-?/ /8/,9-+-:02/0-1+/+, 96+-_-?/8_-5-8?2103_0-1+/+, _I?8/++-+7( F=3?62?1:314,35381? /<-8-0I-+,-_/012:-:017-53/91231?32/0-1+/8 </:-:4129/.-+72-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:(G3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3, <30^33+/01?T,1^+/+,/<10019T6?-+,-_/012/??21/_=(F=34-2:0/??21/_= 14

15 93/+:0=/0^36:3/5/-8/<83+/0-1+/8:0/0-:0-_:/+,23:680:4219,1^+T:_/ </8_8-9/0391,38:019/.3/4-2:02167=2/ =3010/ /<-8-0I412 B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3:(a323^36:3/8-9-03,+69<3214_"-)*$'5$M.,"-#(F=3 :3_1+,/??21/_=3+0/-8:0=36:314/+69<3214:6??8393+0/2I<"M.<-+,-_/012: </:3,1+0=3_1883_ _/8,/0/( F=323/23/+69<321423/:1+:412/,6/8/??21/_=/: ,/<153(E4-2:0? /2I2/ _-?/8-0-3:</:3,1+81_/ /<-8-0I_/+<36:3,-+ 0=233_1+03k0:(*+/'.,$"'.<_1+03k0:6_=/2/+.-+7_/+<36:3,01,-:_6::0=3 /_06/8+33,412_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+93/:623:M<3_/6:3-0:=1^:81_/8]3k02393:] 0=/0/ _/91648/73, /8+/0-1+/ /8/::3::93+0:(c M :6_=/2/+.-+7_/+?215-,3/</:-:4120=3.<<"M.,$"'14:0/0323:162_3:01_8-9/03 #,$(4<.,)*<"M.<*$',)-)#,-+2/-:-+7l63:0-1+:/<160_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+M/+,? =3_1++3_0-1+<30^ /<-8-0I^-0=23:?3_001_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,_8-9/03 93/:623:( G=-830=301?T,1^+/??21/_=9/I=/53/+-+: /846+_0-1+^-0=237/2,01 0=3-9?8393+0/ /0-1+/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:M:6_=/+/??21/_==/:1<5-16: 8-9-0/0-1+:-+/<"M.<?18-0-_/8_1+03k0(*+0=3:3_/:3:M0=323-:/+33,412-+,-_/012: 0=/0/239123:3+: =381_/8:-06/0-1+/+,/23/8:1_/?/< : :9/883281_/8_=/+73: (F=381_/8-+,-_/012:^-88<3/_19<-+/ =2330I?3:14-+,-_/012:' - ]+3^]l6/+0-4-3,-+,-_/012:</:3,1+23/881_/8,/0/ - 81_/8/,/?0/0-1+:143k-:0-+7_123-+,-_/012:-+/ 12,/+_3^-0=S6, ?23_-:3:_ _/::3::93+0: k03+:-5381_/8/::3::93+0:01-,3+0-4I_1+_ /<83/23/:12?=I:-_/81<S3_0:M : _/ /<-8-0I9/?: b10019t6?/??21/_=3:/230=6:01/:9/88323k03+0/:02/-7=0412^/2,-+,-_/012 8/I160M-+0=3:3+:30=/0-0-:9123/9/ :0/<8-:=-+70=393:41281_/8 -+53:0-7/0-1+:0=/+01?23:3+0/_19?83038-:014l6/+0-4-/<83-+,-_/012:(b10019T6? /??21/_=3:/ ,3,4126:3-+0=3/::693,]=-7=2-:.]96+-_-?/8-0-3: -, ,-+0=3-+-0-/801?T,1^+/+/8I:-:M/+,/23/,,-0-1+/88I-+03+,3,01 :023+70=3+0=3,3_-:-1+</:3-+81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7?21_3::3:( Vulnerability matrix F=30^1/??21/_=3:_/+<3_1++3_03,0=2167=/:1T_/883,/4<')-.C$<$,6*(.,-$R( N120=-:?62?1:3^34-2:06:3/:9/8832:383_ ,-_/012:f0=3:1T_/883,01?T,1^+,32-53,-+,-_/012:f012/+.96+-_-?/8-0-3:/ 12,-+701/::693,2-:.14 3k03+:-53')2.,$/)_1+:3l63+_3:14_8-9/03_=/+73:/+,$12_8-9/0393/:623:( E /k-:^3=/53?8/_3,-+,-_/012:14?21<839_/6:3:J-(3(+/062/8/+, :1_-/ /<-8-0ILM^=-830=310=32/k-::=1^:-+,-_/012:14?21<839: J-(3(-+: / /<-8-0IL(F=3=-7=3:02-:./2-:3:42190=3_19<-+/ ^-+: /8_/?/_-0IJ12=-7=-+: / /<-8-0IL/+,/_19<-+/ =-7=+/062/8/+,:1_-1T3_1+19-_568+32/<-8-0IJ^-0=237/2,01<10=_8-9/03 _=/+73:/+,_8-9/0393/:623:L( 15

16 E+3k/9?8314_8-9/0-_=-7=T2-:.:1_-30-3:^168,<302/538,3:0-+/0-1+:-+/23/: 0=/0=/53-+53:03,-+^-+032:?120:4/_-8-0-3:M^=-_=9/I<39/27-+/8^-0=237/2, 010=3/532/73+69<3214:+1^,/I:M/+,0=/0-+/,,-0-1+=/53?1128I,35381?3,?6<8-_02/+:?120/0-1+/+,/8/273?21? /538832:<I?8/+3/+,?2-5/03_/2( *+:6_=_/:3:0=381_/8_ I-:3k?1:3,01/,16<83_8-9/0-_2-:.'_1++3_03, 01_8-9/03_=/+73:J83:::+1^L/+,/?1::-<8323,6_ :9/:/ _1+:3l63+_314-+_23/:3,46380/k3:( Regional and local vulnerability indicators *+0=30/<83<381^^3=/53,-:0-+76-:=3,<30^33+01?T,1^+-+,-_/012:J]237-1+/8 -+,-_/012:]L/+,<10019T6?-+,-_/012:J]81_/8-+,-_/012:]L(G3=/53:023::3,0=/0 0=3:6773:03,_123-+,-_/012::=168,<33/:-8I/5/-8/<83d-+9/+I_/:3:0=3I/ /5/-8/<831+0=3* /:96+-_-?/812_16+0I:0/0-:0-_:(*0-:/8:1-9?120/ ?-+9-+,0=/00=3:3-+,-_/012:=/53<33+:383_03,?2-9/2-8I<3_/6:30=3I :=168,:/I:1930=-+7/<1600=3238/0-1+:=-?<30^33++/0623/+,:1_-30I1+0=3 1+3=/+,/+,(4'$M$=.<-+: :1+0=310=32d0=38/0032-+_1+02/:001]_-5-8] -+: :238/03,01+1+T /8127/+-:/0-1+:/+,81_/8<6:-+3::3:(F=3 4-+/8:383_ ,-_/012:/+,/ /8,-:0-+_0-1+<30^ /8/+, 81_/8-+,-_/012::=168,<3</:3,1+/9123,30/-83,/::3::93+014,/0// 3::/+, f91:0-9?120/+08if03: =3-+,-_/012:-+?2/_0-_3014-+,160=1^^3880=3 81_/8-+,-_/012:23:1+/03-+/81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7_1+03k0( "#%$&'*422)#,)5*M"-)*$'5$M.,"-#*.'5*<"M.<*$'5$M.,"-#*+"-*.##)##()',*"+*<"M.<* M<$(.,)*/4<')-.C$<$,6* ()*+,"-./&0"+)123#&-4$0$2& 5$6+.)"%&+)*+,"-./2& 7.,"%&+)*+,"-./2&& 1.,4-.<*=B6#$M.<*/4<')-.C$<$,6* T N811,: T H/+,:8-,3:$/5/8/+_=3: T O21:-1+ 1.,4-.<*C$"<"2$M.<*/4<')-.C$<$,6* T D8-9/03,3?3+,3+0 -+,-_/012: T O_1:I: _0: T D=/+73:-+0=383+70=14 0=3721^-+7:3/:1+ EM"'"($M*/4<')-.C$<$,6*,"*M<$(.,)*="<$M$)#* T b6:-+3::/+,-+,6:02i T B69<321439?81I33:-+ 2-:.-+,6:02-3:^-0=?/20-_68/28I=-7= 39-::-1+:14_8-9/03 7/:3:? _23/03, 5/863 T *+42/:026_0623 T O9-::-1+:?32?32:1+14 _8-9/037/::3: <-83:162_3: "M$"3)M"'"($M*/4<')-.C$<$,6*,"*M<$(.,)*MB.'2)#* T b6:-+3::/+,-+,6:02i T B69<321439?81I33:-+ 2-:.-+,6:02-3:0=/0/23?/20-_68/28I3k?1:3,01 T H1_/8/,S6:093+0:14 _8-9/03,/0/ T c/?? /<83 /23/: T D=/+73:-+0=32/+7314 :?3_-3:-+35-,3+_3 T D=/+73:-+<-101?3: T c t93:=3, 39?81I93+0::0/0-:0-_: T c1230=12167= /::3::93+0:14/_06/ /<-8-0I /+0 <6:-+3::3: T O9-::-1+:,-:02-<603,1+ 0=3, /+:14 02/+:?120/0-1+ T E,S6:093+0:1481_/8 39-::-1+:J3:?3_-/88I412 /-2?8/+3:/+,<1/0:L T c t93:=3, 39?81I93+0:0/0-:0-_: T c1230=12167= 16

17 T *+42/:026_0623' 02/+:?120/0-1+ T *+42/:026_0623'?-?38-+3: /+,9/-+::I:039 0=33443_0:14_8-9/03 _=/+73: T P37-1+/ /<-8-0I /::3:: /+:?120/ /:026_0623_/22-3,160 -+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3 B/0-1+/802/+:?120/0-1+?8/+ T H3+70=14,2/-+/73?-?3?32-+=/<-0/+0 T *+42/:026_0623'<6-8,-+7: T D=/+73:-+?23_-?-0/ = :+1^?'#,$,4,$"'.</4<')-.C$<$,6 T O_1+19-_23:162_3: T F/k :?32 -+=/<-0/+0 T K1?68/0-1+?217+1:3: T a69/+23:162_3: T K32: :162_3:/: 96+-_-?/8/,9-+-:02/ =3?2103_ = T K21/_0-53/<-8-0I 0=346+_0-1+]?=I:-_/8?8/++-+7M?2103_ _68062/8=32-0/73M+/0623 /+,81_/ ] T P3/_0-53/<-8-0I T c/+t8/<162ti3/2:4120=3 46+_0-1+]? :/+,10=32/ -,3+0:] T *9?8393+0/0-1+_/?/_-0I T B301?32/0-1+/8 3k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k39?0-1+ T c6+-_-?/8_1+0218^-0= 23:?1+:-<83_1+:026_012: -+<6-8,-+7_/:3:013+:623 _19?8-/+_3^-0= 3:0/<8-:=3,_1+0218?8/+: -9?8393+0/ /8 _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3:-+ 81_/8/,9-+-:02/0-1+ T K21? /??8-_/0-1+: 237/2,-+7/_0-1+:-+2-:. /23/:0=/0^32372/+03, 3k39? Regulated agriculture, nature and outdoor recreation-areas in the municipal plan. 17

18 F=30/<83/<153_1+0/-+:-+,-_/012:0=/04120=39/-+?/20,3:_2-<3-)<.,$/) /<-8-0I(F=3?1-+0-:01=-7=8-7=0<"M.<5/2-/0-1+:_19?/23,01,B)*'.,$"'.<*./)-.2)M3(7(-+0=3?21? ]_8-9/03:3+:-0-53]<6:-+3::3:M"(=.-)5*,"0=3 +/0-1+/8/532/73(F=6:412-+:0/+_3?23,19-+/+08I-+,6:02-/8_ :^=323 0=3-+,6:02I,-:_=/273:?/20-_68/28I8/273/916+0:14_8-9/037/:3:^ /: 238/0-538I /<830=/+0=3+/0-1+/8/532/73(Q+8I-+:?3_-/8_/:3:^-88-0 <3/9/ C#"<4,)568+32/<-8-0IM?2-9/2-8I237/2,-+7/::3::93+0:14+/062/ /<-8-0If412-+:0/+_ /<-8-0I018/+,:8-,3:124811,M^=323-09/I<3?1::-<8301/??8I:193/<: /<-8-0I_2-032-/( Vulnerability assessments bi/??8i-+70=3_123-+,-_/012:^3_/+,35381?, ](.=#*"+*1"-o.6]0=/0 3+/<836:01-,3+0-4I ::568+32/<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:1+/+/0-1+/883538(bI /??8I-+781_/8-+,-_/012:/+,9/.-+781_/8/,S6:093+0:/+,/::3::93+0:-+0=3 91: /<8396+-_-?/8-0-3:-, ,M^3_/+,35381?<"M.<2-:.9/?:/+, 9123,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:(F=3:3/ ,3,01?215-,3/</:-:412, ,:1481_/8,3_-:-1+:( E:/:0/20-+7?1-+0M^3_/+-,3+0-4I0^10I?3:14/+/8I:3:^-0=/</:-: ,-_/01291,38' _/8M-(3(^-0=-+1+3:3_012J412-+:0/+_3/72-_680623L - =12-m1+0/8M-(3(412/88:3_012:/+,-::63: F=34-2:0/??21/_=-:<I, =383/:0_19?23=3+:-53M^=-830=38/ /-8: /_19?8303/::3::93+0/_21::/88:3_012:M-(3(/+/::3:: /881_/ /<-8-0I(F=-:8/00320I?314/+/8I:-:^-88+3_3::/2-8I23l6-23/_2-0-_/8 /::3:: (7(:69T/+,:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+, :3_012/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:( Uncertainty F=3?239-:3412/??8I ,38-:0=/0-0-:?1::-<83011?32/0-1+/8-m30= /8-+,-_/012:(F= /8-+,-_/012:41290=3</:-:412,3_-,-+7^=30= :6:346801_/22I ,30/-83,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:81_/88I-+ 12,3201?21,6_381_/8-+,-_/012:(G-0=0=3.+1^83,73/5/-8/<8301,/I-0-:+10?1::-<8301_/22I160/_19?8303]=12-m1+0/8]/+/8I:-:(*0-:/8:16+_320/-+=1^4/2-0-:?1::-< ?2/_0-_3^-0=/]=12-m1+0/8]_21:::3_0-1+/8/+/8I:-:( F=323-:_1+:-,32/<836+_320/-+0I-+_1++3_0-1+^-0=0=3?21?1:3,-+,-_/012 :I:039(N-2:014/88M0=323-:0=3</:-_-+:3_62-0I^-0=237/2,010=3-::6314^=30= _8-9/03_=/+73:/23/_06/88I0/.-+7?8/_3d/+,:3_1+,8IM=1^3k03+:-530=-: _=/+73:^-88<3(F=3+_193:0=3l63: =39/-+/:?3_0:140=373172/?=-_/8 5$#,-$C4,$"'14_8-9/03_=/+73:(c M-0-:_83/20=/0412:193140=3:3-::63: ^38/_..+1^83,73/<1600=3_/6:/8238/0-1+:=-?^-0=237/2,01?1::-<833443_0:14 _8-9/03_=/+73:(F=-:-:?/20-_68/28I _1:I: _0:M12^=/0^3=/53 _/883,+/062/8<-1817-_/ /<-8-0I(H/:08IM0=323-:0=3-::6314,1^+:_/ /8,1^+0181_/8_8-9/035/2-/0-1+M^=323-+9/+I_/:3:+1238-/<83,/0//23 /5/-8/<83( 18

19 Vulnerability assessments in connection with municipal planning *+0=34-+/8/+/8I:-:M0=31<S3_0140=3-+,-_/01291,38-:01_1+02-<60301/81_/8,3_-:-1+9/.-+7_1+03k0(F=-:-+_86,3:/8: :-7+/8:i6?^/2,:i01^/2,: /8/+,+/0-1+/883538:/+,71532+/+_3(F=3_1+03k0^= ,-_/012 91,38:339:01<391:023835/+0-:-+-9? =3</:-:412,3_-:-1+T9/ <"'2*,)-(*<"M.<*=<.''$'2(*+?2/_0-_3M0=-:-:_1+,6_03,^-0=-+0=342/93^ _-?/8?8/ ,320=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7/_0M/+,_19?2-:3:0=233 -+: /8:I:039:0=/0/??3/201<3?/20-_68/28I23835/ /<-8-0I /::3::93+0:140=3_8-9/03/+,_8-9/03?18-_-3:'-L96+-_-?/8?8/++-+7d--L 96+-_-?/ /8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/0-1+/+,---L _I?8/++-+7( P3835/+081_/8?8/ =-:/23/9/I0/.3, :/+,_1+0/-+, :' - 0=303k0?/20140=396+-_-?/8?8/ /?=-_/896+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+: - 0=39/0-_96+-_-?/8:3_012?8/+:J3(7( /8?2103_0-1+?8/+M _8-9/03?8/+30_(L - 0=3/23/?8/+M^=-_=/7/-+?215-,3:0=342/93^ /0-1+?8/+: - _1+:3l63+_3/+/8I:3: c6+-_-?/8?8/++-+7/8:1_1+0/-+:/+-9?120/+0=-"m)## /2,-+7=1^ /+,01^=/0, =/<-0/+0:/+,81_/ :0:/ ,-+0=3?8/++-+7?21_3::M<3I1+,0= l : ,-+0=3?8/++-+7/+,<6-8,-+7 /_0(E+10=32-9?120/ =-:_1+03k0-:0=3$',)-+.M)<30^ _-?/8?8/++-+7/+, _I?8/++-+7(F=3_16+0I _I/,9-+-:02/0-1+=/:0=3 2-7=001:?3/./+,-+:193_/:3:011<S3_ _-?/8?8/+:(N620=329123M 96+-_-?/82-:./+,568+32/<-8-0I/::3::93+0:JPQ@L/23_/22-3,160M^=-_=:=168, <3+/062/88I8-+.3,_81:38I0196+-_-?/8?8/++-+7?21_3::3:( Local environmental protection competence as decisive factor *+1621?-+-1+M-0-:-9?120/+00139?=/:-:30=/096+-_-?/ /8?18-_-3: +129/88I^-88?8/I.*&)6*-"<)-+0=-:_1+03k0(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/27630=/0 _8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+:^-88=/53723/ _081_/88I-4/,/?0/0-1+:/23?60-+01/ _8-9/03?18-_I_1+03k0(Q0=32^-:3M_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+9/I3/:-8I<323,6_3,01/ 9/003214_ _I?8/++-+7^-0=:1930-3:01/23/?8/++-+7J3(7(01/51-,?8/_-+7+3^=16:3:-+4811,m1+3:30_(L(@6_=/_1++3_0-1+-:?/20-_68/28I -9?120/+00123/?0=3<3+34-0:14?1::-<83:I+327I3443_0:<30^33+39-:: ,/+,/,/?0/ ,_8-9/03?18-_-3:(*+23_3+0I3/2:/+69<3214 B12^37-/+? _-?/8-0-3:=/53/ 3?03,0=3_=/ ,35381?-+70=3-2 1^+81_/8_8-9/03?18-_-3:(Ok?32-3+_3:42190=3^12.^-0=96+-_-?/8_8-9/03 /_0-1+?8/+:/:^388/:0=3-9?8393+0/ =396_=9123_19?23=3+:-53 H1_/8E73+,/)"/+,^12.^-0=:6:0/-+/<83,35381?93+0:=1^:0=/00=3?1: _-?/ /8?2103_0-1+/,9-+-:02/012-:,3_-: =3-::6314 ^=30= =396+-_-?/8-0I^ /_0-538I , /8?18-_I(*0:339:23/:1+/<8301/::6930=/00=3?103+0-/ k03+:-5381_/ /8:1^-0=237/2,01_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+,3?3+,:1+^=30= _/8/60=12-0-3:=/53?32: :162_3: ,-+7/+,_21::T:3_0-1+/8 19

20 /8?2103_0-1+/_ :d-+?2/_0-_3/l63:0-1+14^=30= =3 81_/8/60=12-0-3:=/53/??1-+03,/ /8?2103_0-1+/,5-:32( Local climate adaptation as a precautionary policy O53+-4^3/::6930=/00=323-:/23/:1+/<83, _320/-+0I^-0=237/2,010=3 l63:0-1+14ob),b)-*"-*'",_8-9/03_=/+73:/_06/88i/230/.-+7?8/_3m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`+_320/-+0I/??8-3:01/+69<3214 /23/:'-0/??8-3:<10=010=36+_320/-+0I237/2,-+7_/6:3T3443_0238/0-1+:=-?:/+, 6+_320/-+0I^-0=23:?3_0010=33k / /83443_0:/:/ _1+:3l63+_314=69/+/_0-5-0I(N120=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?8301<3/??8-3,M 0=323-:/4620=3223l =/00=36+_320/-+0I:=168,?320/ /8?21<839:14/+$--)/)-#$C<)+/0623( *0-:+101<5-16:B"O0=3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83:=168,<3/??8-3,-+?2/_0-_3( Q+3?1::-<83/??21/_=-:01? =3?23_/60-1+/2I?2-+_-?83-+/+/ _-?/8?8/++-+7/:/_26_-/8-+: ^-0=237/2,01<10=23,6_3, 39-::-1+:/+,_8-9/03/,/?0/0-1+(F=-:+3_3::/2-8I-9?8-3:0=/081_/8/60=12-0-3: 96:0C))'.C<)501_/22I1600=3:3?8/++-+7?21_3::3:M/+,01/8/2733k03+00=-:-: /9/003214:300-+7/:-,3/,3l6/03/,9-+-:02/0-53/+,4-+/+_-/823:162_3:f4-2:08I 01_/22I16081_/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:M/+,:3_1+,8I01/_06?1+:6_= /::3::93+0:<I-9? /2-16:/,/?0/0-1+:( F=381_/8/,9-+-:02/ ?21</<8IM"4<5<33+/<83,01_/22I16081_/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:n/81+3]:101:?3/.f7-53+0=38-9-0/0-1+:_1+_ =36+_320/-+0I,3:_2-<3,/<153f<6083/5-+70=323:?1+:-<-8-0I14/,/? =3 2-:.:_3+/2-1:0=/023: _/ /<-8-0I/::3::93+0:010=381_/8 /,9-+-:02/ /81+3M-:6+0=-+./<83(F=3.-+,14?23_/60-1+/2I?21<839: 0=/081_/8_ :/_06/88I4/_3M-+?2/_0-_323l6-23/:021+7/+,<-+,-+7 _11?32/0-1+/_21::, :3_012:/+,, /,9-+-:02/ :(*0-: 0= ?1::-<8301?-_0623_1+_230381_/8_ ^-0=160/<-+,-+7/+, 3l6/88I_19?23=3+:-53+/0-1+/8?18-_I-+0=-:/23/(Ok?32-3+_3:4219/891:003+ I3/2:o344120:01?60E73+,/)"=-7=1+0=381_/ /8?18-_I/73+,/ -886:02/030=-:?1-+0M/+,/00=3:/930-93:6773:00=/0^3:=168,: /0-538I91,32/03/9<-0-1+:_1+_ k?3_0/0-1+:1481_/ ,01<-+,-+7+/0-1+/8:6??120( 20

21 Further work F=3:_1?314162?21S3_0,13:+10?329-0/_19?83031?32/0-1+/8-:/ =3 -+,-_/01291,38(B12-:-0^-0=-+0=3<16+,/2-3:140=3?21S3_00103:00=391,38-+?2/_0-_3(F=-:0/:.:=168,<341881^3,6?/40320=3_19? ?21S3_0( a1?34688im162-+,-_/01291,38-::14/2,35381?3,0=/00=323-:/238/0-538i:=120 ^/I421991,38,35381? ,3803:0-+7M/+,0=6:/</:-:412/9123 l6/8-4-3,1? ^=30= =3-+,-_/01291,38-:/_06/88i_/?/<8314 _1+02-< =30/:.14:023+70=3+-+70= :14B12^37-/+96+-_-?/8-0-3: 01/,/?001_8-9/03_=/+73:( 21

22 6L.;;D?<;=;C P/?? ; :0-0600?21:S3.030]D8-9/03D=/+73-+B12^/I'E+ * /993+3/5,3003?21:S ,30, ,38?21:S3.0:19 7S38,32,3+-+:0-06:S1+3883,-93+:S1+3+.+I /0-8?/:+-+7( F5322-+:0-0600?21:S3.030:9;832; <3723?:93::-72/ : :370-8;:06,323=512,/+-+:0-06:S1+3883: / =-+,23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V30325-,323, ,389;8412-+:0-0600?21:S3.030' "( > /+/8I0-:.2/ ;:06,323-+:0-06:S /0-8?/:+-+7- B1273( )( >-,3+0-4-:323-+:0-06:S1+3883: : ;4/:083773?103+:-/ ;7S3++194A23.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7?;81./80+-5;( &( >-,3+0-4-:323+A..384/.01232: =-+,23223/8-: /530:8-.0?103+:-/83( N8323,38?21:S3.0327S3++194A :0-0600?21:S3.030=/20/00607/+7:? ??4/0+-+7/0,30<"&.<)+-5; /? JE/8817Y2153+)%%&M H-+,:30=)%%&MBU::)%%&L(V3003./+-607/+7:?6+.030:I+3::1930?/2/,1.:M/88,3+0-,.8-9/?21< :0;2:19302<"C.<, M17.8-9/? S32+3.+I003:0-8$',)-'.#>"'.<)?18-0-:.3?21:3::32(H , =18,:19 6+,32<I7732/017:;,3081./83+-5; (O0:3+02/80?13+732,30:19-, /:S1+/83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:8-0032/0623+<3037+3::19]0=3-::63146?T/+,,1^+:_/8-+7](*, /0,34/.0-: /5.8-9/3+, /+ ]./ :]199/+-..3=/2300-8: /8041.6:(V3032: /83 5/2-/:S /5.8-9/3+,2-+732(V3003<3:03993:6042/=512,/+.8-9/3+, :8;260M=512:;2</2+/ M=512:;2</2-+42/: /+, :/ M17= /+81./80=/20-8;4123<I ??:./,32:194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732JG-8</+.:17R/03:"\\\ME7,32)%%"M BU::)%%&L(O0<3:83.030?13+7.+I0032:370-8:?A2:9;83019]1532:300-+7](V </ /5.8-9/3+,2-+732: /83(O+=532.-8,30-860:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32=/ /8-030M17,309;,32412-?2-+:-??3081./830-80/ ;23,6:32360:8-??3+3( V30;4239=353,-::301? :385:/70-..3,30:/993:19;:-/0/2<3-,30 93,;23,6:32360:8-?? , /80/+:5/2(a :,30:385:/70 f./+:.s317:;4a2: :0f17:;0-80/.?;237-1+/80m+/:s1+/ /:S1+/80+-5;(K13+730=3232,3+:3+02/8346+.:S1+3+,3081./83+-5;30./+ =/-;"/)-#),,),30781</83.8-9/?21< :19./+4/003:/5= d /80:;,30;<-+,330781</80?21<839:/993+93, /.:8-.,-::3 1??8353:81./80JaAI3217E/88"\\#ME/88)%%%L(V3081./83+-5;30=/293,/+,23 12,3+=380/57SA23+, ;#$&-)*<)2$,$($,),*"2*"==#<4,'$'2*"(* &<$(.="<$,$&&)'M /0,3081./83+-5;3017:; :/993+=3+732./+ =/ :194,+"-()-*"2*$/)-&#),,)-/5: /.JY E/88)%%)L( 22

23 * :0-0600?21:S3.030=/2BU::J)%%&L,2A4030-+:0-06:S1+:<3723?3017 :300, =18,0-8/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(H-+,:30=J)%%&L=/2 7S3++197; /:S1+/ /,+12:.3324/ /2<3-,3093,.8-9/? /0-8?/: /84125/80+-+7(E/8817Y2153+ J)%%&L=/27;00,I? / ;2,307S38,32+12: :324/ ,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7M17-,3+0-4-: :;./ ;3+,3-+:0-06:S :I:03932:19/+0/:;5U23:3+02/83-,305-,323/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7?; 81./80+-5;'9-8SA4125/80+-+7M<323,:./?:/2<3-,M.1996+/8?8/ :-.2-+7( P"-(7<),93,,38?21:S3.030:192/??120323:=323201,380' >7-3+<3723?:93::-7:?3:-4-:32-+7/5]-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30]17 ]0-8?/:+-+7]93,=3+:I :.3412=18,( ` ,-./012</:32091, ,32-+7/581./82-:-.117:;2</2=30-412=18, , /3+, ,-7+/:S1+/8.8-9/? ( c3,].8-9/? ] , /.412;23,6:32360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(p/?? =18,32:370-8/883,3023,389; :0-0600?21:S3.0307S M93+,/:193+60,I?-+7/5,389;8J"L601532,30 :19/80327S120/5BU::J)%%&L17H-+,:30=J)%%&LM :A.?;; 1?32/:S1+/8-:323I ,389;8J)L17J&L-412=18,0-8,30:19/80327S120-E/88 17Y2153+J)%%&L( F /2<3-,305; A873+,34123: '7S3++19;.S3++3./2/ /+730/ ,-7-9?68:J-5; , / A2-+7/5.8-9/0-80/.L:./ :-+1319=512,/++;0-8:0/+,3+J-5; /06217:/946++L./+<8-3+,230(V-::3:/993+=3+73+3:./8:;4239:0-883: 53,=S38?/5*$'5$&.,"-)-( b3723?30$'5$&.," /,308/0-+:.3532<30$'5$m.-)m:19<30i2;? ?21.8/9323(X-< <30$'5$&)-)173+$'5$&.#>"'-30932,/78-7:?2;.( V305-: /9: : M /0/883:-,3253,, /9(N129; / ?83.: :/993+=3+732(X-.+I00324A873+,3,34-+-:S1+0-8<3723?30$'5$&.,"-Jc/_ /I"\\#dE,2-/+:3 "\\&dc-0_=388"\\zl'3+-+,-./ i ?83.: :/993+= :197SA2, ;.5/+0-4-:323,-::3( *+,-./01232<26.3:412;1??+;M /:S : :/993+=3+732M93+?;3+9;03:197SA2/053: :./?32 53,,-::3-..37;20/?0(V ,-./012023=153,46+.:S1+32'J"L M J)L.5/+0-4-:32-+7M17J&L /:S1+(V , :S &"((4'$&.#>"'M: /+0-4-:32-+7,3253,<26.3:412;1??+;( K ; : (F-8,30=/25-,/0/17:0/0-:0-..( R /:S1+,23-32: /:S :3+, /.32(* :/ /+, :300-+,-./012:300: : /883726??32(N ,-./ ,.6++35U :8A:338832= :0;38-73(V30036+,32:023.32/0-+,-./012329; :- 238/:S1+0-8,3726??3+3/5/.0A232,30?2-9U20:./81??+;: /:S1+93, JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( *5; :./ ,-./01232:19:./8<3: /83.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, /? (N12; :0-883,

24 53,=S38?/5-+,-./01232,3+0I?3+.19?83.:3:/993+= :: =32M9; :3003/0,304-+:0-8: :./? ;830;4239: ,-./ A873+,3412=18,' "( V3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+-+;:-06/:S / :/946++:A.1+19-:.3 412=18,( )( >2:/.T /+-:932412=512,/+.8-9/3+, /0-80/../+?;5-2.3+/06217:/946++( &( H1./835/2-/:S /?;,2-5( C( a ,-73+/:s1+/83.8-9/ , /0-80/.:19./+<8-7s3++194a20( #( a512,/+-9?68:3+js4?6+.0&17cl ,23+;:-06/:s /80( Y-00/05-A+:.32; /+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232M9;5-1??4/003? :1930:30093,+"-4,#),'$'2)-412; , ,32-+7 /581./82-:-.117:;2</2=30-412=18, , /3+, ,-7 +/:S1+/8.8-9/? (a5-:h+/541260: :03,35-85-= ;3+/9<-:S1+19.5/+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232M93+5-9;+AI3 1::93,/+0I,+-+732/5412=18,:19./+5U /+03412,3+81./83 :;2</2=303+( K/2/ ,5;20?21:S3.0=/2D*DOPQ/2<3-,3093,30039/0-:.:300+U20 K32:?3_0-53:1+K18-_-3:/+,*9?/_0:]4-+/+:-320/5412:.+-+7:?2172/ :;19; /:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232?;308/ ;3++,30+/:S1+/83( +-5;30M-<30I,+-+73+/5/09/+</:3232:37-/88=153,:/.?;-+,-./01232:19./+ +3,:./8323:42/+/:S1+/83,/0/:30017+/:S1+/83J </83L.8-9/91,38832( V-::3<I7732-:01272/,?;+3,:./ S :.+-+7:?2172/9930 ]P37-1+/8D8-9/03V35381?93+0`+,32Y81</8G/29-+7]JP37D8-9L(X-,3237-: -+,-./0123+3</2393,] ]:199-+: /4-:.33+=30(V3032= /7053.0?;; ,-./ :0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30( X-5-8-,3++32/??1203+<I7735-,323?;/2<3-,:19/88323,3327S &"((4')-?;?23: ,::_3+/2-3242/D*DOPQ:?21:S3.093,=3+:I /8.8-9/:;2</2=30/0,3032<3=15412; <"&.<, ,-./01291,388JQpb )%%&L(X-=/20/00607/+7:?6+.0-,3238/ /:.3,3562, :19/80327S P37D8-9(*5;20/2<3-,3=/ :A.0;<38I: =18,' a512,/+?; /3+,2-+732, , /8:/946++e a512,/+?; /.412;23,6:32360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/:: /8:/946++e a :0-06:s1+388./?/:-030=/23081./8:/ ;<a03?;+37/ :19:.I8,3:.8-9/3+, /.412;23,6:32360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32e 24

25 K21:S3.030=/20-8=3+:-.0; ,-./ ;<3:.2-53,-::3 412=18,3+3(V3++30I?3+-+,-./01232=/ /:S1+/ /0624;00< :3+ #7-C.-B),#$'5$&.,"-)-*JR/8I948)%%&L(a3+: ,; :;2</2=30:-+,-./ ; ?32/:S /7412;7SA232-:-.1T17 4;4239( `0:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32 R8-9/0-80/. R8-9/?; H1./8:;2</2=30 H1./8-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030 Figur 1 Prinsippmodell for lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer X-A+:.32/80:;;30/<8323-+,-./01232:195-:3281./83:/946++:A.1+19-:.3.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, S3++194A2-+7/5.8-9/?18-0-: ,832M :/90-,-7:195-17:;A+:.32/0-+,-./0123+3:./84;4239,3+-+:0-06:S /?/: /800-8;9A03,-::360412, (X ;.1+: :: :19?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/ /+,32-+,-./01232-:37:385./+ 5U2323,:./?412:0I2.-+7/5-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030:/90-,-7:19, , :A.38I:910./?/: ;7S3++194A2381./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(V3 :3+02/83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :: /8?8/ M.1996+/89-8SA / /80<323,:./?:/2<3-,( 0-8,30;30/< /-<26.30:;2</2=30:-+,-./012:I:039' T /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7 T +3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U29-+7 O+4A2: /T17T+3,0-8+U <U232/09/+< S /:S1+/8:0/0-: :680/03242/+3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91, ; 7SA233+4A2:037215: /5,3+:/983,3:;2</2= : ( B3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U :;93+0<26.0-,3/+0/003]=AIT2-:-.1]T ,3+0-4-:3207S3++19,3+4A2: /T17T+3,0-8+U ( b :3++3,3+42/t17t1??=3+:?3-832?;01412=18,'/0,/0/3+3-:0a22372/,32 81./83J-910: /:S1+/83,/0/17+3,:./832-+7/5781</8391,38832LM17/0 -+,-./ < /83<3: :?21:3:: ,-/81742/ ::-,3]1??1532]-<3: ::I:03930( B3,3+42/T17T1??0-8+U ,2372/,3+-+,-./01291,388M-,3+412:0/+, /09/+= /< / /836+,32:A.38:323++;?23: /+0-4-:32</23-+,-./01232(O0/ : , U M32 /0,3+:-: < /83<3: :?21:3::32M93+:153+42/T17T 25

26 +3,0-8+U ;=/3+]5/2:8-+7:46+.:S1+] / : /7412+/:S1+/83<3: ? ( O+9;03;:I:/993+,301-+,-./ U ?;32;30/< $#$&"(.,-$#)M,329/+562,3232,3+81./83:;2</2= =18, /3+, /0-80/.1??910,3+81./83-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+(aAI :;2</2=30.19< ,8/5-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-03093,4A2323+=AI:/98302-: /80M93+:8/5:;2</2=3017=AI-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-03093,4A232/0 81./8:/ :/++:I+8-75-:=/23+0-8:5/23+,38/53232-:-.1412;1?? / ( P/ ;20/2<3-,0-88/ :03+,-71?32/:S1+/8-:32-+7/5 -+,-./01291,3883+(V = ?21:S3.030;?2A536091,3883+( V ??7/53:19<A24A873:1??30032/05;20?21:S3.032/5:860030( N12=;? :325;2-+,-./01291, :;8/+70/0, / ; 7;42/91, ,38860?2A5-+7M+13:19-7S ::726++8/7412; /8-4-: ,-./01291,3883+4/.0-:.35+32;<-,2/-/2<3-,30 93,;:0I2.3+12: :-++:/0:-/2<3-,3093,;0-8?/::3:37.8-9/3+,2-+732( P/?? ,380-+)(*B"/)55)<)-(*4A2:03, U293237S3++197/+7 /5-+:0-06:S1+:<3723?30M93,53.0?;;.8/27SA235;2041.6:?;23835/+0381./83 -+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932(X-,2A4032#7, ,3781</83.8-9/91, ,0/+.3?;968-7=303217<3723+:+-+732: ;+3,:./8323,-:: / /80+-5;(*,3+,-)5>)=153,,383+,2A / ,; /83-+,-./01291,38832?;9-8SA192;, :?3:-380+;2, /83/55;20412:8/70-8-+,-./012:I:039(*,3++>)-5)=153,,383+7SA25- :; S3++197/+7/5-+,-./01291,3883+M4A25--,30#$#,)./? ,2A =303217<3723+: ;0/-<26.5;2-+,-./01291, <3: ::/993+=3+7( 26

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b j)%%)l7-293,</ / / /+,01< :32 412;41.6:323?;.8-9/:;2</2=30'"L,30./+A.31??: :8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/.d17)L,30./ /74127S3++194A2-+7/50-80/ /0-8?/:+-+7(b3773/ :I+3:23835/ :.:/993+=3+7( V :U ::/+0;&"(C$')-),301/ :3003, <"&.<:/993+=3+7(E80:;/041.6:?;<"&.<.8-9/:;2</2=306042/A+:.3019; :0I /:S ;7S3++194A23<;,3<"&.<)*60:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/.17 <"&.<).8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(V30329/+733.:39? /:S1+/80M30032= :;-B1273M?;/0,3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;300/20-8,38:937302/,-./83.8-9/?18-0-: /0-5M93+, , /:S1+?;/0-+-0-/0-53+3=/2 $'2)'3.:39?832?;/0, U <8-2.19<-+320d/80:;60:8-??:23,6.:S1+ / /03+:8-..1< ??<A27SA23:81./80JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 27

28 V3032: < :8-??:23,6:323+,3170-8?/:+-+7: /? M<;,37S3+:-,-7412:032.3+,317?103+: :02-,3+,3M: <U232/0,30./+5U23: :03253,3+:032.:/912,+-+7/5,-::301+U20 <3:83.03,3? ;,3+3(V30:I+3: ;=35,3/0, ??32?;,30 <"&.<)4125/80+-+7:+-5;30/0,3++30I?3: :0-06:S < ;4;0-8JE/8817Y2153+)%%&LM,/, /80,360:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/ ;003:3003: = /3+, /5,-::3 +A,53+,-75-:5-81??8353:( V3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;3032<2/.0, /2<3-,3093,781</83 9-8SA?21<839327S3++19./?-0038)[-NB:=/+,8-+7:?8/+4123+<U23.2/ fI2)'5.*:8f:194-..:-+144-: : ,32NB.1+432/+: SA P-1,3W/+3-21-"\\)(H1./8E73+,/)"=/253,48323 /+83,+-+732<8-00?3.0?;:193+/5,34;?1: :680/03+3:19=/ /5E73+,/)"JH/44320I948)%%)L(V30/+, ,+3,3-+-0-/0-530: /834125/80+-+7:+-5;30M=/ /:S1+/805-:030A.3+,3 3+7/:S /? JE,732948)%%)MY E/88)%%)M q16+7"\\[l(*9/ :; :.8-9//2<3-,.1<830+u200-8 /2<3-,3093,H1./8E73+,/)"JY "\\\MH-+,:30=)%%&L( b3723?30$'#,$,4#>"')<<*&.=.#$,),329i3< <-+,38:393, :?21:3::32M-<30I,+-+73+;:0I :0-06:S :8/+, ) (*, :U28-7,30;: :.9/::317+-5;/ : I:-:.323::62:32J<I /++3+4I:-:.-+42/: LM.19?30/+:3MA.1+19-:.323::62: : :0I2-+7:93:: ,832( *,3+: ,3+=/2<3723?3017:; /+53+,38:3-9-8SA:/993+=3+7M.+I SAT :/2<3-,J:3@37+/:0/9"\\\L17-412<-+,38:393, :?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7JBU::)%%&MH-+,:30=)%%&L( a3/83i948j)%%&l1??: / / /:s1+:?21:3::32, :.3412:0;38:3+/5<3723?30-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030(a6+5-:320-8/0<3723?30 32<26.0/ / ;-,3+0-4-:323.5/ :19: ;:0I2.381./ /0-53?21:3::32M17?3.32?;/00230I?3223::62:3232:3+02/83+;29/+:./8 <3: :0-06:S1+388./?/: /80JE9-+rF=2-40"\\#MG-8.-+:1+/+, E??38<33"\\\L & '.6++:./?:23::62: :23::62:32 91<-8-:32-+7:35+3 c3,&4''#&.=#-)##4-#)-93+32,3<8/+0/++300i?3.6++:./?:19,380/ :0-06:S1+3+=/20-87/ /,3+/5;?3+=30-412=18,0-8+I3-,332(c3, '),,/)-&#-)##4-#)-93+32,3<8/+0/ /87/ :/.0A232 2 I en kommentar til World Health Report 2000 uttalte for eksempel daværende bistandsminister Anne Kristin Sydenes at Styrking av institusjonell kapasitet har lenge vært et sentralt begrep i norsk bistand 3 Healey (2003) bruker betegnelsene knowledge resources, relational resources og "mobilisation capabilities". 28

29 J]:0/.3=18,32:]L: /,3+/ / :0-06:S1+3+(c3,("C$<$#)-$'2#)/')93+32,30<8/+0/++3023?3201/230/5 91<-8-:32-+7: :03,35U238:3/5,30,3< :19]_2-0-_/8_=/+73 /73+0:]( a3/83i948j)%%&l=/23+$'5$&.,"-,$<'0-($'2-:-00412:a.?;; :323 :?A2:9; :0-06:S1+388./?/:-030(*+,-./01232=/214035U20.+I <3723?30-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030M17,/?;019;032'"L412;C)#&-$/)]+-5;30]?;,3+-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+M17)L:1930,$<,.&412-:37:385;#,6-&),3+ -+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+(`0412, ;2,307S38,32,3+4A2:030-8+U /0,30; ,3+-+:0-06:S /?/:-0303+,23-32:37538:;9I319.5/8-030 :19.5/+0-030M:8-./ :.3-+,-./01232/ /+5U ,3+,3(*< <2-+73::?A2:9;83+319=5/-+,-./ =5/,3./+<26.3:0-8-++( a-:012-3+</.,30; /-<26.-+,-./ :3230+u20:83.0:./?0-83+ <23,323:/946++:,3</ =512,/+412:0;17=512,/ :0I23 :/ (K;,3+3+3:-,3+=/29/+3+="#$,$/$#,$#&412:0;38:3:197S38,32<;,3 =5/:8/7:.6++:./?:19/+:3:: :./?38-717=512,/+17-= /, 9/+./+]:0I23]:/ (V3+?1:-0-5-:0-: :./?:412:0;38:3+:-32/09/+ :./87SA23,30:/993-:/946++:5-03+:./?3+3:19-+/ :./?3+3';:A.3 1<S / ::-7=3032:19./+03:03:53,-/.00/.38:32( RS3++:./?3+0-8: ::-7= = ;41260: /5 <3: ?-,30:1:-/83?;:/9939;03:19-+/0623+(V3+?2/.0-:.3 <30I,+-+73+/5,3+39?-2-:.3:/946++:.6++:./?3+32,32412/0,3+./+19:3003: 0-8-+: ]03.+-:.].6++:./?:19./ =18, ;8d, :./? :./?3+A.325;20]03.+-:.3]=3223,A993<;, /06217:/946++(c;83032;30/<8323:/946++:5-03+:./?3+3:193+:8/7: :1:-/ A2.6+:0(a3232-+,-./ A,53+, AIJaAI3217E/88 )%%)L( c103+:8-.</ / ,-./012:i: : ].'.<6,$#&* 9/2.3,:4A23::19/ /+/8I0-:.3:.S39/324128A:+-+7/ ,3 :/946++:?21< I SA17<U23.2/40(*0-8.+I ,-:.6:S SA17<U23.2/ , ??:/0041.6:?;<3723+: , ],)&'$#&*+$RSJaAI32)%%%L(V30323+<3723+:+-+7: ??=353:53,; 8/+:3233+/ ]4-k]M-, ,3+/+/8I0-:.3(V332< I3412/+.230-?1:-0-5-:93+( V3+?1:-0-5-:0-: :./?:412:0;38:3+<8360:/00412: (*,/732,303+ / ??4/0+-+7/0,3+32/55-:0M-/8834/88: :./?:4-81:14-:.?1:-:S1+M :38519, <3:035387;3+,3: :./?8-7?2/.:-:(V30<8317:;0-83+ <23,323:/946++: M:19<8/+0/ ;23003: /+0-4-:32-+7/5 :1:-/83412=18,17,3+:/946++:?18-0-: /5.5/+0-0/0-53,/0/17 :/993+=3+732(O0032:19-+,-./ ??32.5/+0-0/ I ?83.:3:/993+=3+732<;,3-+/06217:/ ,3:;2</23412,3++3 0I? (c3+?;:/9939;03+:19-, :./?8-73?2/.:-:3+M83532?1:-0-5-:93+-<3:035387;3+,3:19?18-0-:.?2/.:-:(*..39-+:032.19<-+/:S1+3+ /5+I8-<32/8-:0-:.A.1+19-: ?1:-0-5-:937/+:.3:;42/9023,3+,3(V30 =/2<-,2/000-8;7-3+:-06/:S1+,32,330/<83203A.1+19-:.3-+,-./0123+3<3:0;2M 93+:/8032+/ ,-./012?;9-8SA192;,30,6..321??17412: S3+ JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( 29

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c1,3883+<i7732?;30?1:-0-5-:0-:..6++:./?::i+(v3+2/:s1+/8-:93+,30 =3+5-:3: A2: :.T-+: (O++AI/.0-7M.5/+0-4-:32</2.6++:./?M:19329; /9<2/.0M?8/::323:-+: /:S1+/8-:0-:./+/8I:3T17<3: :.S3,3(YS3++19=383.S3,3+M:;538:19?; = ,,M=/2-+,-./ :3+02/8?8/::( c3, /+: / /8032+/0-53?8/ :91,38832( NA2:0.19,3+$'&-)()',.<$#,$#&)(V3+<I7,3?;0/ : ;8M:9; :.2-00/57/+73+MS6:032-+7/5.62:3+6+,3253-:17:0/,-7-9?215-:/:S1+?;:03,30( K;+12:.<83,300-8]:9;T:.2-00:]?8/ (N2/3+=380/++3+./+0.19:3+323,3+&"((4'$&.,$/)?8/ M,30:19?;"\\%T0/8830<83190/80:19]0=3 _1996+-_/ ?8/++-+70=312I](V30< ,0-8&"<<.C"-.,$/?8/ Ja3/83I"\\sL(V30<I7732?;Wt273+a/<329/:: /0-52/:S1+/ =/+,8-+7M:1930/8032+/0-50-8,3+:I+1?0-: :.T-+: /:S1+/8-030(@3+02/80:0;205/+7:8A: /:S1+17,-:.6:S /+7418,/5,380/.323M17/0,39/+73,380/.32+3-?8/ :?21:3::3+34A / /:S1+:195$-)&,)?; =18, 17604/88JE9,/917E9,/9)%%%L(V303293, ?8/ :-+ 93:0I ;3+,34129( *<3773,3/8032+/0-5391,3883+3f, /8-:0-:.317, /0-53 f=/2-+,-./01232<$,)'-+0323::3(*,304a2: ,-,30</2332:+/..19:9; : S6: ,3253-:(*,30/+,23412,-, /0-532/:S1+/ ?23: =380/ :0;38:33++-+,-./0123+3:03.+-:.T-+: (X-./ ,-./012:I:039327S /0-53?21:3::32(V30 :-:030-;230=/2,/17:;7-001:: :39?832?;,3++30I? :412:A.M :0+;2,307S38,3281./83<U23.2/40-+,-./01232JaAI3217 E/88)%%)L(H ;29/+-..3, :.3:?A2:9;83019=5/:8/7: 4 Synoptisk = et systematisk/tabellarisk oppsett av faktorer i rekkefølge 30

31 ?8/ :T17<3: ::I:039-+,-./0123+3:./8?8/::323:-++-(B;2,3003 :./85U234688:03+, /0-50f--++=18,17604/88f32,305/+:.38-7;:3 = ,3:./8:?-883( N2/3+023,S3./ :,307S3++19"\[%T17"\\%T0/8830:="#,("5)-'$#()3+ 3+,/93246+,/93+0/ (c3+:, /0-5323?23: / /:S1+/8-030M/55-:32?1:091,32+-:93+<3723?30192/:S1+/ =1,30(V3+<I7732?;3+1??4/0+-+7/5/0:/ <3:0;2/ /7323+,39/+7418,-7=30/58-5:412932M M412:0;38:3: :?2;.:?-88(V30039/+7418, /+38832<A2<8-3+: :/98307S :3+:6:M= ;1??-+13+=AI3233+=30JE9,/917 X37738/+,"\\[L(V ??4/0+-+7:19-..3</237SA2,30/593,,30 46+,/93+0/ / ,-./01232M93+17:;0/+.3+19?8/+8/703 :/946++:3+, S3++19:/946++:?8/ (* SA2,30/593,:3853 -,h </8<u23.2/ : :412/ :.32m+;17-42/90-,3+( V ;:3-+,-./0123+3:?8/:: ,3+:I+1?0-:.3M ;2,30 7S38,32, /0-53?8/ (c3,,3+7/+:.3 3+0I,-73?8/:: ?1:-0-5-: :.T-+: /:S1+/ :/90-,-7-3+:-06/:S1+,32,3+:I+1?0-:.3?8/ /80<302/.03: : </.38/70:0/,-69(V </23,323+,I2.303?1:-:S1+32(V3032 <3=15412+I/+:32(V3+/932-./+:.3?8/ : b/2_8/Ia6,:1+ AI3M17412; :I:039/ /:S ;8179-,832(X , ;: :?;,30/8S3+3M17412;4;42/9 +A,53+,-7=303+/5,3:9;: S6: /5.62:3+6+,3253-:( YS3++19,3+02/+:/.0-53?8/ :,3053.0?;7S3+:-,-78U2-+717,-/81793,,39?8/ <32A232(V303230/++30<3723? /0-5?8/ (*/,51./0?8/ SA2,3:19?8/ :370-80/8: :5/.3726??32-:/ (R1993+,373+32/:S /00-738/+,32 3.:39?832?;+3001??:8-.:5/.3726?? ::32:19<A :*3+.8-9/:/993+=3+7M,385-: :38412/883,3/+,23=3+:I+3+3:19-5/230/: 7S3++19:I+1?0-:.31702/+:/.0-53?21:3::32(c3,,3+2/,-./83?8/ :,302/,-./83:/946++:3+,2-+732(V ;:3412:37<3= :8-.0?32:?3.0-5*412=18,0-8,3932,2/9/0-:.3.1+:3.53+:3+3/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M :19A.+-+7/5=/5+-5;30+U2:032.0<3418.3,38/ ,38/+,-,3+023,S3 532,3+( V = /+7=-:012-3:195-:32/0,30,3:: < <U23.2/40/5+<)-)-+,-./01232JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(c3+, ,0; /0,30= <8-2932<U23.2/40/5+0--)-+,-./01232(*: $#$&"#.(+4''),6+,32:023.32,3+0I:.3:1: `82-_=b3_.J"\\)d"\\sL <30I,+-+73+/5,3:3+91, SA2-:-.-: /+:3M :9/.3M A83(V I?3?21<83932:19:3854A ?21,6:32053, =S38?/5+/ :./?M93+:1917:;</23./+1??,/73:176002I..3:93,,3+ :/ :./?3+:/+/8I:3532.0AI(`0:8-??/52/,-1/ :39?38( R8-9/7/::3230/++30(`0412, ,3i6:I+8-73i9-8SA?21< :032.3:/5/ f, SA2-:-.13+T./ /+73 31

32 / :+-+7:?21<83932(b3_.6+,32: A,53+,-7=303+/5;4; 2/,-1/ ;.8AfS(.&)*-.5$".M,$/$,6*$,MBS(a3232-+,-./ ,328-7=S38?(V3./+0S3+3: <U2323/5,306:I I,38-73M /5,30: /+7042/9-0-,17/5,30:197S32+34;2< :3+i781</80if :.S38842/3+4123: :/0:93,< :3+i81./80i(V30 :3+02/83=3232/0-+,-./01232./+5U23: /+-:93+412;1532:3003,3 i91,32+3i9-8sa?21<8393+3f:19.8-9/3+,2-+732f0-83+4/00</21781./ :0jn/8.=3,3+"\\\maai3217e/88)%%)l( )() H1./83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932 X-:./8/80:;:06, /3+, /? : , :0-06:S ,2-+7,325;2041.6:32,3081./83(V3003:./85-7SA2353,; ,-./01232:19./+<3: /83:/946++:A.1+19-:.3.1+:3.53+:32 /5.8-9/3+, S3++194A2-+7/5.8-9/?18-0-: ,832M:/90, /3+,2-+732(V30325-, :30+-+7/05-:19:/70:./8.1+: ::19="<$,$#&):I:03932M:197SA2/ :19?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/ /+<8-2:3+02/8(X ,3293,010-8+U ,30;.1<83-+,-./ :0-06:S1+388:;2</2= , d "(, ;8-:37:385; /83.8-9/-+,-./ //+0/738:3+/0,30-:37:3855-8:0I2.3,3+-+:0-06:S /?/: /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7d17 )(, ;8; ,-./01232:1917:;: :?3: ,3+ -+:0-06:S /?/: ;2,307S38,32;7S3++194A230-80/.81./ /0-8?/:+-+7( P /607/+7:? A2:03562,32-+7/ : :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932: ,320;=/=AI23835/+:412/2<3-,30 81./8093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L # R1996+/8?8/ <I7+-+7: c-8sa / E5, ,32:A.03-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :-5-8C)-)5#&.=,30:19- :0A2:072/,/2<3-,32, ,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7f /5=3+7-7/53+ 3.:?8-: /?18-0-:.23432/+:3T17:19:/90-,-7=/ ,38/5:-+ / /80( N12;4;7S3++194A20,3+A,53+,-7360:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/: ; 9/+03+.3: ?3+, : (c3,3081./80607/+7:? Aall og Groven (2003) hadde i tillegg med et fjerde institusjonelt system: forsikring. I og med at vårt fokus er mot lokale politiske systemer vil vi her se bort fra forsikring som ett av de sentrale institusjonelle systemene; og derfor konsentrere oss om de tre første systemene. 32

33 42/9:0;2&"((4')=<.'<)22$'2:19,30=380:3+02/83-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: :/912,+-+7/568-.3: /153212,+3,39;8: (X-,32332,30: < ,+30/23/8?8/ ,3+932,30/8S3203 C62'$'2#&"',-"<<)'M:197S38,32, ?8/:: /5 <I (*5;2412:0;38:3/5<I7+-+7: =/25-17:;-+.86, /80 0-8:I+93, =1:/+:5/ /.J3+023?23+A23+L( V30:-:03/5,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932f($<>%/)-'+"-/.<,'$'2)'f325/ /3+/+0/738:319/03+9-8SA?18-0-:.23432/+:35-85U ;:0I2.3 /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V :; ??:0;:/9:? /.41260:8-??:23,6.:S /0-8?/:+-+7(V/32, ;:3- :/993+=3+7,301? ;,3+3( E883,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I:0393+3=/23+<8/+,-+7/5-).&,$/)17=-".&,$/) =/+,8-+7: (*?2/.:-:4239:0;2,3+:-5-83<323,:./?3+:19,3093:0 23/ :I:03930M:38519,3017:;=3232:032.3/9<-:S1+3219; ?21/ =18,0-8026:832910:/946++::-..32=303+:19./+.+I003: /3+,2-+732( V3023:I: :; /,B.'5<$'2#"-$)',)-,)(R1996+/8?8/ :U2,383:=309-8SA / =18,32: : M-,3+412:0/+,/0, ,-::301:I: /+73/ :19,23-32: ,8-+7/5.6++:./?d-9/ :; 4129-,8-+7/5532,-</:32031??4/ =18,+-+732( * , : :0-06:S1+3883:I:0393+3M32,303+8/ #)&,"-$)<<):I:03932:19=/2:0A , /+:-412=18,0-8:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7(V305-8:--+:0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:19=/2: ;, /20, :3.012M:1902/+:?120M8/+,<26.1:5(a5-8.3:I:03932 : /+03:0I23:-:01272/,/581./83412=18,M:19:/993+:30+-+7/5 '.,4--)##4-#)-5-8-,3483: U M,32,393:0:3+02/ :0-06:S :.32-M:.17<26.178/+,<26.(X-,3235-8: :0-06:S1+32:197S38,324125/80+-+7/5+6#$#&*$'+-.#,-4&,4-J53-32M=/5+32M 8-+S3+3001:5L5U JE/8817Y2153+)%%&MY2153+)%%&L( V3032:-5-8<323,:./? /8?8/ :193293:0]/.0-53]81./80+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(N12,3+:-5-83<323,:./?3+7S38,32,30:U28-7 <323,:./?-412=18, :.23,d /,17:;-412=18,0-83.: ,( N /8?8/ <I7+-+7: / ,23:I+8-7M93+ 17:;=3232=153,41.6:30?;481917:.23,M /,17:;3.: ,JE/88 17Y2153+)%%&MY2153+)%%&L(N3883:412,-::301-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: ,8320-,/0/ /,32.1<8303.:?8-:-000-8,3+.8-9/?18-0-:.3,3</003+17:?A2:9; :.3:./?03.8-9/3+,2-+732JE/8817Y2153+ )%%&L(V300332/ :19412=18,32:370-8,369-,,38</23?21<839: I /062./0/:021432M603+/0, :S </ ,3;2:/.320-8,3:/993+/062./0/: (V =18,30./+7SA23,30?21<839/0-:.;4;7S3++19:8/74123+: /,/5?21/ ,3081./83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:/2<3-,30(a153,0I+7,3+/5-++:/0: :-5-8<323,:./?M.1996+/8?8/ <I7+-+7: :19./+./2/.032-:323::19.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732,/17:;/593223/.0-5./2/.032JE/

34 Y2153+)%%&L(*++:/0:-412=18, /+7: /0-:.<30-+73,33+,2-+732M :193+, ?32/062M:+A412=18, /:S1+32= :/00?;,/7:12, ,-::301:I:0393+3( )(& H1./89-8SA /80+-+7:19+A..38-+:0-06:S1+ X-=/ / : :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932:1932:U /+0381./80+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(V h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c-8SA ]Jc*RL+;32-432,93,; <8-<I7730+3,( Reduksjon i den kommunale miljøvernkompetansen 9-8SA532+83,32J,/5/2,304120:/003+12,+-+793,A ,315324A2-+732L =/,,3/+,383+7;00+3,0-8198/7s#?21:3+0-)%%%(*"\\Z1??=A20312, ,A ,315324A : : /89-8SA532+83,32(N2/ "\\Z0-8)%%%=/,,3)s?21:3+0/ /70+3,: : /8 9-8SA532+83,32M93+:&"?21:3+0=/,,323,6: :8;00:/993+: , /+,2346+.:S1+32M:8-./0</23)[?21:3+0/ J\" L=/,,3 0-8:/003+?32: ,: ,3/2<3-,3293,9-8SA:?A2:9;8JbSA2+U: )%%)L(V A52-7,30:/993/+0/ J ,3:/ L:19<8393, :?2172/9930]c-8SA ] Jc*RM"\[[T"\\"L:19</ ,:/993+/5+(V ;/+0//0023+,3+=/24120:/00:8-./0/+, ,3+?32:1+: /7030:?3:-380/+:5/ SA532+-)%%& U2=303+/5Z%?21:3+0( V /839-8SA ,3293,17:;3+&-$,$#&4/.012-,3+:/983,381./83 -+:0-06:S /?/: ;2,307S38,32;=;+,0323:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+7( O24/ /c*RT?32-1,3+M,305-8:-?32-1,3+42/"\\%0-8"\\s,/+12: =/,,30-8<6,19A ,315324A : : /8 34

35 9-8SA532+83,32M5-:32/0,30;=/3+0-8: /,9-+-:02/0-5./?/: /+09-8SA ?30/+:381./80./+608A:3:012/ ?;9-8SA ;,30 JW/+:3+"\\"Ma15-.17W1=+:3+"\\CMB/6:0,/8:8-,"\\CME/88)%%%Ma15-.)%%%M E/88948)%%"L(V /2-+732:195-85U /+03412/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7d30412=18,:1917:;32, S3++19+I8-77S3++194A203 :06,-32/5412:A.93,.1996+/8.8-9/?8/ f ,)'/0:?A2:9; /0-8?/:+-+75/2:/00?;,/7:12,3+JY E/88)%%)L( Formal og organisatorisk kompetanse V3324/ c*RT/2<3-,30=/2<2/ :19-,3++3:/993+=3+732 /57SA23+,3M./+1??:699323:-4A873+,3:3.:?6+.032(K13+730=3232/0412/883 :3.:? ,3+/57SA23+,34/.0123+=5125-, =/20-8:/003+?32:1+ 93,30:U28-7/+:5/ SA532+( N SA?21< / :0( c1<-8-: /8-++:/0:-9-8sa532+/2<3-,30( O+,23, /83?2/.:-: SA ( O+,23, / /,30;</235U23: :;;5U233+ c*rt m+13:19194/0030<;,34129/8.19?30/+:317127/+-:/012-:..19?30/+:3( P"-(.<.19?30/+:3194/00324A2: : :.17+/ :./? ?30/+:3:197S38,32=512,/+9/+./+412:0;17<3: SA0-8:0/+, SA0-80/.(O0/<832-+7/5: : /89-8SA532+83,32<3:/00/53+?32:1+93,+/0624/ ?30/+:332,3+93:0;?3+</239; /+ :0I2.3:-+4129/8.19?30/+:3?;9-8SA ;,30(V ,8320-,17:; 3.:39?832?;/ =/27S3++194A20238/ /003+,3: :1?? <;,3/,9-+-:02/ /870+-5;(O03.:39?3832,3+:;./803 ]K : SA8U23] ,F X-,3237;3+,3:.183: <U232/ /8703,380/2?;h A032,32,34;2-++4A SA:?A2:9; =300-8?; /7;,-: SA:?A2:9;8JE/88 "\\ZL( V3+"-2.'$#.,"-$#&).19?30/+:3+194/ :./?17324/ <26./ :0I2-+7:T17?8/ : :./?19=512,/+ 9/+./+-532.: SA532+? (V ;.S ,3968-7=303+3 : :-:0323+,39-8SA532+?18-0-: ,832(V ;.S =18,3: :-:0323+,3.6++:./?:9-8SA32?;9-8SA192;,30M:19 4I8.3:9/++3+:9-8SA532+/5,38-+7M9-8SA, /03+3M23835/+03=AI:.183T17 412:.+-+7:9-8SA SA127/+-:/:S1+32(X-,32332, ;=/.19?30/+:319=512,/+9/+./+412=18,3:370-8+U29-8SA30M /+-:/:S1+3217/+,2381./83/.0A232: :/9/2<3-,:?/ ; 35

36 :-.231??: :300-+7/5, /839-8SA532+? ( V :1917:;7S38,32-412=18,0-8/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(O+ /++3+,-93+:S1+53,,3+127/+-:/012-:.3.19?30/+:3+32<3= $',)-'.#>"'.<127/+-:/012-:..19?30/+:3(V / :./? /:S1+/839-8SA532+/50/83217,380/.38: /:S1+/ M: :042/9:0;2: /2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/: /? JE/88)%%%L( Miljøvern på den lokale dagsorden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c/+:0I = ;+"-,"<&) 9-8SA?21< <"&.<.1+03.:0(V300332:U =18,0-8,305-7S32+3< :19781</839-8SA?21<83932(H1./ =/25-:0:37;5U23 =380/57SA23+,3412;608A:381./8=/+, =18,0-860?2373,3781</83 9-8SA?21<83932:19.8-9/M <26.17<-1817-:.9/+7418,JF62+32"\\&M aai3217e/88"\\#l(v :;=ai: /01??: / /003+,30-80/ /0-8?/: :5/23+,381./ /5.8-9/?21<83930M :0-412=18, /,5-:3178/+7: A.1:I:0393+,2-+732:19./+608A:3:/5.8-9/0-:.33+,2-+732JE/8817Y2153+ )%%&L( L"&.<*("C$<$#)-$'2=/25U203+:3+02/81??7/53-,3081./839-8SA532+/2<3-,30M 17:;4A2c*RT :0/2030M17,/-237-/5,3:;./803+U29-8SA412:A.3+3 JaAI32"\\[L(O /5c*RT /2,/17:;A.081./8 91<-8-: SA:?A2:9;8M :0+;2H1./8E73+,/)".19?;,/7:12, JH/44320I948"\\[MbSA2+U:)%%)L(H1./891<-8-: U23/57SA23+,3-/2<3-,3093,.8-9/0-8?/: :0;00<;,3:19 1??: ,-23.03<-,2/ /830-80/ /0-8?/:+-+7JE/8817 Y2153+)%%&L( Endret kommunal praksis c3,3+,230&"((4'.<*=-.&#$# ,30;0/-<26.+i3/2<3-,: :19:-.032:37-++?;;23,6:3239-8SA<38/: (c*RT /2 0I,38-7?;, ,/0, /83?2/.:-:3+=/2<8-003+,230:U28-7?; ;,32JW/+:3+"\\"ME/88)%%%L' O+1??<819:02-+7/5+I317n9I.3]0-80/.:192;, / /:S1+:T17=18,+-+7::./?3+,30-80/.( O+A.3+,3/ /5?8/+/2<3-,?;9-8SA ;,30( 36

37 37 O+5-::A.+-+7+;2,307S38,32;0/-< :0I2-+7:532.0AI?; 9-8SA192;,30( V3+A.03/ ;2,307S38, /:S1+:T17=18,+-+7::./?3+,30-80/.32 /80190/801532(V3+A.03/ ;2,307S38,32=<.'<)22$'2<3:014A2:0/5/0 30:0120/+0/ ,32c*RT?2172/ ,3+4A2:034/:3+/5:3853 c*rt / sa532+?8/+3293,< :3+ic-8sat17 +/06223::62:?2172/9i(V-::3<3:01,/7S32+3/53+:0/06:,38:19<3: SA0-8:0/+,3+81./80173+:02/037-:.,38:19-++3=18,09; =383 <23,,3+/59-8SA532+? (Q4035/2,-::3?8/+3+3</ :19 6/5=3+7-73?8/+32M17.1< :A.1+19-?8/ ?8/+ 5/ f,305-8:-/0: :300-+7:,383+7S32+35/2:5/ JE/88"\\ZL(`01532?;"\\%T0/8830:.S3,,3,30-9-,8320-, /5, /839-8SA532+?8/ ?;023192;,32'A.053.0?; / ?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+M60?2A5-+7/568-.3:0I2-+7: ; :0I2.335/ /5=5125-,053,0/0039;817?8/+32< ??M1760/2<3-,-+7 #,6-$'2#/)-&,% / /5=5125-,0?8/ ,0/.?; 9-8SA ;,30< ??M412:0;00<;,3: /83 :0I2-+7:532.0AI17+I :680/02/?? / :0/0JE/88 )%%%L(X32.0AI:19C0-)&-.+,$'5$&.,"-)-M($<>%-)/$#>"'17-),'$'2#.'.<6#)<8-2?2A5, = /,0/00-<26./ (V3++30I? AI./+<-,2/0-8;7SA23, /839-8SA532+? S3++19:-.0-7M ,3293,-?2-+:-?? /730<3, A.0 93, /80M:/90-,-7: /730412, /+-:/:S1+:8U :0I2.3:(X-,323./+,3++30I?3+ :0I2-+7:532.0AI<-,2/0-83+;2:/.: ,3293,:0I2.-+7/53+3.:?8-: <U23.2/ SA532+? JE/88"\\ZL( Kommunal miljøvernplanlegging c10:86003+/5"\\%t0/8830:.s32,3017:; /+742/,3+0-, /0-:.:/00i/80194/003+,3i /2-)'#),)9-8SA532+?8/+32(O.:39?832?;, /+:?120?8/+32M<-1817-:.9/+7418,?8/+32M /+,:./?:?8/+32MH1./8 E73+,/)"?8/+32M3+327-?8/+3217f:19:-: :0f81./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32(*,3++3:/993+= / ,381./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+3+393:023835/+03M:38519,30-8:/ /7&% 412:A.3+3/80:;$&&)<32A232039/30.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7JY E/88)%%)L(Q / =/ S /?8/ :?3:-38017,3932/ / =/24;007S3++19,3A /89-8SA532+?8/ M3+03+,3003=/2:.S3,,-4129/5 :3?/2/03?8/ :19039/0-: ?;/++3+9; ,3+ 12,-+U ?8/ M:.6883,305U /5324/2-+732;,2/ 53.:832?;412; ; /8?8/ :19 7S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7(Q /293,/+, /+03?8/+324/ , /839-8SA532+30M+398-7,3932:?23,03324/2-+732:197S38,32?21/.0-5?8/ :-5-8<323,:./?17/23/8?8/ :19412:A.32;0/ =3+:I+0-82-:-.1562, ;2,307S38,322/:174819M<8-2324/2-+7:726++8/ /0-5071,0(V30:197S3+:0;232;:3324/ :/993+=3+7M4123.:39?38

38 53,;7S3++194A2337+3?8/ :412:A.93,41.6:3.:?8-: /3081./8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( Kommunen som miljøpolitisk aktør O+/5,3./+:.S :03324/ /,30:-:030-;23093,.1996+/80 9-8SA532+/2<3-,M32/ /+7: :194;20-84A200-8: ::62:3217,32,3+81./83?18-0-: :: :03,3M=/235+30; :37 42/=153,:/.38-7;5U23: S3++194A2-+7/5+/:S1+/89-8SA532+? :;;.6++31??023:193+#)</#,)'5$2*($<>%="<$,$#&*.&,%-JE/88)%%%L(V /2-+7:1917:;7S38,32932:?3: /? M17:1932, <;,3-B127317/+,238/+,JY "\\\MF3-78/+,17E/88 42/: /.0A2M60412,23:7S32+317:;,3++/:S1+/839-8SA532+? ( a5-:,30-..3:/90-, :30412?8-.03+,3:/9/2<3-,938819:0/ m ]9a ]-4129/5910:02-,3+,3:0/08-73 :-7+/832(K;,3+3+3:-,3+./ ??412,23:/5,3+:0/ SA / ; /,-./89-8SA? : :/993+=3+732./+5U23932/9<-:-A:3++,3+7S38,3+,3:0/08-73? (c3+ +;2,3+81./83J/9<-:-A:3L9-8SA? <8-2<3723+:30/5:0/08-7:3.012? :39?38:/9432,: M<8-223:680/ /0, /83? ,6:323:0-823+:I9<18? JR8353+"\\sME/88948"\\\L(V3+0-8,38:9/::-53324/ B127317/+,238/+,+;2,307S38,32E73+,/)"T/2<3-,30M 17,309/+783+,3:/9:? /8317+/:S1+/83E73+,/)"T?21:3::32M 81./89-8SA532+?8/ /83E73+,/)"T?21:3:: /232 ;4; =AI72/,/5=12-:1+0/ /59-8SA=3+:I+-3.:-:0323+,3 81./83-+:0-06:S1+32M5-83+9/+783+,3/)-,$&.< A230-8/0,3 53: , SA <8-2JE/88)%%%L(*/2<3-,30 93,81./8.8-9/0-8?/:+-+732,30033+:U2,383: =380/57SA23+,38U2,19; 0/93,:37JY E/88)%%)L( 38

39 :L -D=E2E4<?DD?14CBF=>>?1I?5 &(" 91,38832: , /091:4U23M=/517=/5-:(c1,3883+3<37I ,M17</:3232:37=32?;237-: , /17.8-9/?;,2-5J,5:(.1+:3+02/:S1+3+/5.8-9/7/::3217?/ /091:4U23+L(N12< /5 42/90-,-7.8-9/<3+I003::_3+/2-3242/NB:-+032+/:S1+/83.8-9/?/+38M*KDDM:19 /58/: A?-7:-:032/??120-)%%"(V368-.3:_3+/2-3+3:19?23:3+0323: 23?23: /8830/568-.3A.1+19-:.3M:1:-/ SA93::-73?/2/,-7932( RI101T? ,-::3< /00?;726++/59/+783+,3 2/0-4-:32-+7( )%%"L / / :-2.68/:S1+:91,38832M,5:781</83.8-9/91, ,1??8A:+-+7?;+13+4;=6+, (V S :3+02/833621?3-:.3127/+-:/:S1+32'c/kTK8/+_.*+: JcK*MFI:.8/+,L17 a/,83id3+023j`rl(ck*=/ /3+781</8.8-9/91,388:19.1<832 : /091:4U23M=/517=/5-: =6+,23;2M17:19 <3: /3+, : (JT?</:3232:37<8(/(?;60:8-??::_3+/2-30 Z 19< :53.:0MA.1+19-:.53.:0M/23/8<26.M :.33+,2-+732M ] ,3]60:8-??::_3+/ ::19i<3:033:0-9/0i412=512,/+ 60:8-??:4128A?305-8<8--9/+738/5/ /.41260:8-??:23,6.:S ,,38: ) T.1+:3+02/:S1+3+3-/091:4U )"%%M93,30;28-760:8-??- )"%%?; )%9-88-/2, /2<1+?32;2JY0D$;2L(F-8:/ ,/73+:60:8-??-1532./+0/5sY0D$;2( ;.5<)6*H)',-)</:3232:37<8(/(?;60:8-??::_3+/2-30]E)]42/F=-2,E::3::93+0 P3?120 s (V :? , / ,3+=5126+, ,3 4/ :0I2.-+7/ / , M=AI< :53.:0M17 93,8-03+<3.I / :3.53+:32/52/:.A.1+19-:. 53.:0JR18:=6:)%%"L(c3++3:.32M-,h3217./?-0/8329-+,2391<-83M17:?23,+-+7 / ;238/0-50:/.03(b :53.: U23=AIJ"# 9-88-/2,32-;2)"%%LM ?32-++<I U238/5J `@us(%%% -;2)%#%L(P ,71,0-87/+7?;3+327-T /823::62: /0-5023::62:-+03+:-53A M93+:/+, ? ;23,6:323-9?120/5=3+7-7=303+7S :.-++15/:S1+1723::62: :32-+7( O+327-<3= ?2-9U20<8-,3..30/541::-8323::62:3217.S32+3.2/40M I</2323::62: :0; )%v/5?2-9U /+7-;2 )"%%( Z c301,3+,3<3+i0032<3+35+3:odaecc$qkqd& s b/:3232:37?;9301,3+a/,ec&= 39

40 &() P37D8-9f:_3+/ B12,3+ &%%k&%%.9 ) (@19P$24-*:5-:32M7-2,3003+3:03+6< ,/0/93,=3+:I ,32-+7/5.8-9/ /80-B1273( Figur 2 Oppløsningsgraden i de globale klimamodellene P37D8-9 [ , :.+-+7:?21:S /5:_3+/ / B12,3+M ,3=/5192;,3217,3832/5E2.0-:53,3+ 781</81??5/29-+7( V ;8;.6++3/+7-6:-..32=3032.+I :_3+/ I:-:.3?21:3::32: /30-5;23192;,32(O+=3+:-.093,?21:S ;+3,:./83233.:-:0323+,3781</8391, ,30/8S /:_3+/ ; (O /8.8-9/: ,3..320I?-:.5-::3 0-,:?32-1,3242/,30781</833.:? M1701=153,9301,32<8-2<3+I ,3++3+3,:./ T39?-2-:.17,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7( E(=$-$#&*U#,.,$#,$#&V*')5#&.<)-$'2</:3232:37?;;'"L4-++3=-:012-:.3 :/993+= :-2.68/:S1+:T17039?32/0629A+:023:19: : : ;,3M17:;./88/:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:032M1781./8.8-9/:0/0-:0-..d17)L <26.3?217+1:32/5:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:03242/.8-9/91, ,3=-:012-:.3 :/993+= ;8/7342/90-,::_3+/ :.3412=18,(O9?-2-:.$ :0/0-:0-:.+3,:./832-+7</:3232:37,3293,?;41260: /0,3 :/993+= :012:./8/.8-9/9A+: /8.8-9/6042/ =-:012-:.3,/0/17:;=18, /90-,/M17:/993+=3+73+3</23./++I003:412,3:03,3+3,323+-,/7=/28/ ,30-,::32-32:19<3: /8.8-9/30( O.:39?832?;:012:./8/.8-9/9A+:023: ?;+12:..8-9/32'** T,"-#&.<.*<4+,,-6&&W,3032.8/23:/993+= /2-/:S1+32-9A+: :012:./8/864002I..1532B12,TE08/ /2-/:S1+32-,30+12:.3 8 Regional Climate Development Under Global Warming; finansiert av Norges Forskningsråd. 40

41 .8-9/30(O.:39?38?;, ]V3++12,/08/+0-:.31:_-88/:S1+] JBEQL(BEQ./+<3:.2-53::193+-+,3.:177-.8/23-+,-./:S /8.8-9/-B1273M93+,3032-,/7:0126:-..32=30.+I =512,/+BEQ 5-83+,23:37-42/90-,/M17,3293,= ,3+5-8=/?;+12:..8-9/( T >%,)(=)-.,4-WY184:02A993+M:?3:-380M=/2:012<30I, /30- B1273(c3+,303.:-:032326:-..32=3093,=3+:I+0-8<30I,+-+73+/ /03039?32/062(VBc*$930(+1=/ ?;.I:0.8-9/ :0-,(@SA039?32/ ;,/A:0-B12,TE08/+0323+=/2: ?;+12:..8-9/( T?#4,C-)5)<#)*$*I-&,$#W60<23,38:3/5:SA-:-E2.0-:?; /30-B1273M A?-7323:680/032=/2:0126:-..32=30( T F$'5*"2*,)(=)-.,4--#%%%91=(* b/:320?; ?32/062t17+3,<a2:,/0/42/198/7#%9;83:0/:s1+3242/=383 8/+,30M=/29/+-++3+P37D8-953,=S38?/539?-2-:.+3,:./ /9: ?32/ ,<A2::_3+/ ?32-1,3+"[Z%T)%#%(c/+=/2<8(/(41230/00 39?-2-:.+3,:./832-+7/5010/80"s </83.8-9/91,38832Ja/+::3+Tb/632 )%%&LM412605/8703:0/:S1+32-B12,TO621?/M+13:19=/ ,38:68-.3 :_3+/ B1273( X3,56'.($#&*')5#&.<)-$'2M /891, :19,3017:;./883:M<8-2,30+I /91,388:19-?2-+:-??30327/+:.38-.,3+781</83M93+:19 <3723+:32< <3: /4-:.192;,3,32,3+=/2=AI323 1??8A:+-+7(c301,3+</:3232:37?; / :./091:4U2391,38893, =AI1??8A:+-+7:19<8/+0/++30<3: ?172/4-:.3412=18,J+12:.34S38830_(LM :/993+93,,/0/42/,3+781</83.8-9/91,3883+M:19,3293,7-23+-)2$"'.<* &<$(.("5)<<(c/+41.6:3232,3293,?;.8-9/?21:3::3217:/993+= U24/ J:1917:; ,/73+:5U25/2:8-+7LM42/ / ? ;8-+732:19-39?-2-:.+3,:./832-+7(VI+/9-:.3 91,38832=/23+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?;198/7##k##.9 ) M177-2,3293,198/7"&% 532,-?6+.0?;8/+,:</:-:J:3P$24-*XL(H1./8.8-9/0-:.3:U ?172/4-:.3412=18,< ,2372/,4/+7301??/5,3+,I+/9-:.391,3883+M 3++-,339?-2-:.3< :19</:3232:37?;4/.0-:.3:0/0-:0-:.39A+:023( `:-..32= A2: :0.+I ;,3293,:012301?172/4-:.3 412:.S38832M,5:(-4S12,3217,/832M I:0T17=AI4S388::02A.( 41

42 Figur 3 Dynamisk nedskalert klimamodell, med oppløsningsgrad på 55x55 km 2 O9?-2-:.17,I+/9-:.+3,:./ :0-9/ B1273(P$24-*Y6+,32-886:023232= :.S38832:1932-,3+0-4-:32053, +3,:./ , ,3+3M?;192;,303+,2-+7-;28-7 7S3++19:+-00:039?32/062( Projected change in annual mean temperature DD ED Deg C R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Figur 4 Projisert endring i årsmiddeltemperatur på 50 år: Resultater fra dynamisk og empirisk nedskalering av MPI (Hanssen-Bauer 2003) 9 9 R1, R6 viser til seks ulike regioner i Norge. 42

43 VI+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/5cK*17a/,83I:781</83.8-9/:_3+/ P37D8-9M=/ ,38::5U :_3+/ B1273(N12:.S /+ =153,:/.8-7.+I003: /502I..$=AI02I..:</+32-B12,TE08/+0323+( "% B3,:./ /8360:8/7-++3+B1273M:?3: ,<A2M17 23?23: ,3293,412:.S38832: /7412:;2</2=30:562,32-+7( c3+:3++3,:./832-+7/5a/,83it91,3883+?23,-.3232/0a ,<a25-8<8- :U28-742/9=32:.3+,3?;g:08/+,30M7-2+3,:./832-+7/5cK*T91,3883+,30 910:/00323:680/030'5-./+4;A ,<A2:U28-7?;X3:08/+,30Ja/+::3+T b/632)%%&l(k23,-.:s ,17039?32/06232, :;412:.s388-73( Y ,30.+I0030:0126:-..32= /:_3+/2-3+3M :-..32=30: /88383,,*Ja/+::3+Tb/632)%%&dNA28/+,948)%%%L' T $',)-')*/.-$.#>"')-*$*&<$(.#6#,)(),'6/5=3+7-7/5,-:.6:S :.3:./?03.8-9/3+,2-+732M /2-/:S1+-,30781</83.8-9/303+ +/ :-7</25/2-/<-8-030d T 4#$&&)-B),*"(*)'5-$'2)-*$*&<$(.=75-$/'/+0/738: /90-,-7/321:18 / M568./+/ J+/0628-7?;,2-5L1742/90-,-7360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32 17?/ J93++3:.3:./?0?;,2-5L326:-.23d T +)$<*"2*(.'2<)-*$*&<$(.("5)<<)')'9/+783+,3.6++:./?19:/993+= /0628-7$93++3:.3:./?0?;, , /J?21:3::3+3LM 9/ <3:.2-538:32/5?21:3::3217,;28-71??8A:+-+7-,3781</83 91,3883+3<-,2/20-8:0126:-..32= : /91,3883+3d17 T #/.&B),)-*U+)$<*"2*(.'2<)-V*/)5*,)&'$&&)')*+"-*')5#&.<)-$'2'9301, < / /83.8-9/91, :0/,-76+, ?2A5-+7( &(& c68-7= /8+3,:./ V /83.8-9/:_3+/2-3+39;-..3:33:?;:195U25/2: /90-,/M 93+)#,$(.,)-* /90-,-733+, ?32/062M+3,<A2M5-+,17 3.:02395U2-B1273@*X3,412<3,2-+717I /5781</83.8-9/91, ,:./832-+7M5-8+I317412<3,23,33:0-9/032<8-?23:3+0320(H-.3538M, :-,/ : /:_3+/2-1412B1273:19 -+,-./01291,3883+./+0/607/+7:?6+.0-M93+91, :; ?/::3: +I3.8-9/:_3+/2-3217< ( R8-9/:_3+/ B127342/P37D8-9:19-,/7=/24;0093:01??932.:19=30 <I7732?;3+,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/5,3+781</83cK*T91,3883+(V /91, <8/+0,3: /0-5091,32/033+,2-+732:/ , /+,23M17:1923?21,6:3232,/73+:.8-9/-B1273<3, /5,3/+,23 91,3883+3J,5:(/09/+53,,I+/9-:.+3,:./832-+7/591, ,/74;2 23:680/032+U201??0-8,3+4/.0-:.3:-06/:S1+3+L(H-.3538:I+8-77SA2< ?32-1,3+)%&%T)%#%.8/233+, B1273(c3,3+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?; ##k##.9 ) M ,30],I+/9-:.3]:_3+/ ,-32412/ M17412 ; ?23,-.:S /3+, ,-./01291,3883+M=/25- <3=15412;7SA23I ,:./ /59/032-/830(@19,38/5 "% c1,3883+3?21s-:323217:; ,:?32-1,32jck*')%&%t)%c\17a/,83i')%s"t)"%%lm93+, :.2-53:-..3:0a2:0<30i, =18,0-8412:.s3883+3:191??:0; , /83 +3,:./ JK32: ,,3838:3MO-2-.NA28/+,MP37D8-9)%%&L( 43

44 53,; ,,38532, ,3+U ,3532,-? "" (V3++3:5U ?18/:S1+:9301,3+0/2,3293, ::72/,=3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.3 412=18,M,5:(:012:./8/01?172/4-: M :U = ( V3003<83562,320:195/+:.38-7;7SA23-30]153+42/T17T+3,]T?32:?3.0-5( /5<"&.<)*5.,.* *&/.<$,.,$/)*/4-5)-$'2)-/581./8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,-.19<-+/:S1+93,:_3+/2-3093,3+1??8A:+-+7:72/,?;##k##.9 ) (V ,-:.,-:.6:S1+: ;-,I<,3+?;-,3++32/??1203+( c3+,3032.8/20/081./83< /+a.36:-..32=303+-9/ I JS42(<3:.2-538:3/56:-..32=301532L(X /+0I,3= /?/2/93023:19,30?103+: U23=3+:-.0:93::-7;412:A.3;+3,:./ /80(E8032+/ ;<26.3,3<3237+3, ,-3+3?; ;( O+81./8S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/</:320?;.5/8-0/0-5]:I+:-+7] ,3 30/<83203:_3+/2-3+39;-..342/9:0-883:: :./?38-734/.0/(X-./+= :-=512,/+,3003./+7SA23:-,30/8S4A2,3032?2A5,60?2/.:-:M:-,3+,30 /5=3+732/50-87S /:S ?30/+:381./80(V305-84A8738-7= U ;<3+I003,3++30I?3S6: ?/2/0-5:/993+=3+7( H ,32:023.3/0,30/09/+412:A.32;41230/81./83562, (S6: /5,3144-: /:_3+/2-3+3M./+=/3+532,--:37:385(E+,23.8-9/3443.0?21:S </.3938, /281./ :: /:_3+/2-3+3Jb/+7948J-+?21723::LdQob )%%&LM:/90-,-7:199/+ 237-:023232/09/+81./80-..3:I+3::_3+/2-3+34/+7321??81./83412=18,71, /0, ?23,-.:S /+03;<26.3-?2/.:-:(R8-9/:_3+/2-3+3<62,30/ =3+:I+0-801?172/4-:.35/2-/:S1+32:1932<3:03993+,3412,3081./83.8-9/30(* 910: ]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8+U ,:./832-+7/5.8-9/,/0/:19 <8-27S @Ec@FOcFT?21:S3.030M5-83+]+3,3+42/T17T1??]0-8+U <-,2/+3001??0-8:0A22391<-8-: /80(R8-9/:_3+/ /+7:? /+: M53,/0,3032:+/..19?23,-.:S1+17< <38/:03093,:0126:-..32=30M17:19-..3:./8237+3::195U25/2:8-+732M93+:./ ?103+:-380,/ / /80-8?/:+-+717? (X3,81./8,-:.6:S ,34239:/ /:_3+/2-3+3./+9/+A.3<;,3412:0;38: :3853-,3+0-4-: ,:?A2:9; /3+,2-+732( *5;201??:300/5:;2</2=30:-+,-./ /3+, :8;/09/+-,3+4A2:03+3,:./ /5:;2</2=30-+12: <3+I0032+3,:./83203 P37D8-9T,/0/</:320?;D*DOPQ:0-8+U29-+7M93+:9/+-4/:30181./80412:A.32 ;41230/37+3S6: :19,-: ( R8-9/?/2/ /+726??323: ??32' - 039?32/ ,<A2-5-+, 11 Gjennomført av Bård Romstad og Heather Tompkins ved Cicero. 44

45 O.:02395U2-++7;2:19:U =532./03712-(V30.+I0032: /, /56:-..32=300-8?23,-.:S =532./03712-M:/ = ; +3,:./8323,/0/9/032-/ ;603+;7SA239/032-/ , : / /83:;2</2=30:562, ( Q)(=)-.,4-* * ;5U2360:8/7/5:012:./8/039?32/0625/2-/:S1+32M:;4A ?32/062 =AI, =/530?;81./80+-5; ") (L.=#)*-.,)'*3*9;830?;=5129I3 039?32/ ,232:3793,=AI,3+f32-,3+3,32: /5/091:4U23+ -7S3++19:+-00_/%MZ#72/,32$"%%9J,5:(/0039?32/0623+/50/21??1532L "& ( F39?32/0623+/50/29-+,2353, ,0A228640( c3,607/+7:? ,-3+3-,30+u293:03]532,-?6+.030]m./+9/+6042/81./83 < /5=AI,3412:.S38832./+:.S ?32/062532,-32( "C * ,: =AI,3412:.S38832M5-8,3017:;5U23/.06380;< ?32/062532, ? (V /+:.S393:0 :/++:I+8-7/0039?32/06232./+S6:0323:53,=S38?/5932.5/8-0/ , M,329/ ?;238/ :.S ;,32M</:320?;3+.19<-+/:S1+/5412:.S38832-=AI, /8.6++:./?19+129/805U260:8/7 81./80( 1)5C%-* H1./83+3,<A2:93+7, </2360:8/7/ /83+3,<A2:4380M93+17:;,3 01?172/4-:.3412=18,3+381./80(@ ?32/062M5-8, ,3380:3005U /+0;< :;+3,<A / M : :.S /, (NA2: :032,3060:/00= :.I773:19<8-2S6:032-+7:4/ :19./ :-++(V305-85U23 5/+:.38-7;.5/+0-4-:323,-::381./83412:.S3883+3M:;=325-8, U23 :+/..19-)<.,$/)412:.S38832:19<3:.2-53:.5/8-0/0-50</:320?;81./8324/2-+7( c :.-+:0-0600jvbc*$930(+1lm-:/9/2<3-,93,bxom/2<3-,3293,; S6:0323$+3,:./832323:680/03242/,I+/9-:.+3,:./ ,;< /83 1<:325/:S1+32(V303260/2<3-, :_3+/ /++4A ?32-1,3+)%&%T B1273M17=/23+1??8A:+-+7?;"k".9 ) ( < ,-./:S1+32?;.8/ /83412:.S38832(K21:S :; < , ,<A2:19:+AJ:3*P$24-*[LM93,:/993 1??8A:+-+7:72/,(V /< : :39?38./ : /83562, /5:;2</2=30J4/:3)LM,32:19932,30/8S3203< :?A2:( 12 Med unntak av situasjoner med inversjon, der temperaturen stiger med høydemeterne. "& =00?'$$930(+1$-+,3k(:=098 "C YS3++19:+-00:=AI,3? :-@0/03+:./20532.:E23/8:0/0-:0-..' =00?'$$^^^(:0/0./20(+1$*K@$e91,683wE20-_83:d/_0-1+wE20-_83(?6<8-_@=1^d*VwC#" "# X=/abXT91,3883+'=I,21817-:.91,388412/58A?/5+3,<A2-<3: ,<A2:4380( 45

46 Figur 5: Relativ endring i avrenning, perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002; Skaugen mfl. 2003) Figur 6: Endring i snøens vanninnhold (mm) pr. 1.april, for perioden sammenliknet med perioden (Roald mfl. 2002). V30=/217:;<8-00< ?23,-.:S ,230=I??-7=30J"17#,/732: 5/2-7=30L :-030/53.:0239+3,<A2M412605/87039;83:0/:S1+32J@./ ( )%%)L(@-,3+,3032.+I /0-50:016:-..32=300-8< /53.:02395U2M <8-2,-::3.8-9/?/2/ ?? /0-53+,2-+742/,/73+:+129/8J:3P$24-* \L( 46

47 Figur 7: Regional fordeling av relative endringer i gjennomsnittlige ekstremverdier av ekstremnedbør (Pm), varighet én dag. Svart søyle innebærer ingen endringer (Skaugen mfl. 2002). V-::3< /+7-53:3+08-7<3,233:0-9/0323++D*DOPQ:9-,,38532,-32 </:320?;:_3+/2-3093,1??8A:+-+7:72/,##k##.9 ) (X3,<26./5,-::3 < /80M./+9/+4(3.:(41230/ , /5,3081./83 9A+:03230:19<8-2<3:.23530J/)-$+$#)-)]*+.<#$+$#)-)*)<<)-*>4#,)-)LM?;</.726++/5 81./8.6++:./?193.:-:0323+,3+3,<A2:T17/ :9A+:023(N123+, ,<A2:19:+A< ?32/062562, I00-73; (K;,3+ 9;03+./+9/+23,6:3234/23+412/0:_3+/ /80<8-21??4/0030: / I/+: < / :0( F$'5* V30.+I0032:37:0A2236:-..32=300-8< /53+, ,M17,/ :?3: /53.: ,J<;,39/.:-969:0I :L(V /83.8-9/91,3883+3=/25/+: ;: ,3:032.3:035-+,3+3 Ja/673+17B12,3+7)%%"L:-,3+0-,:1??8A: < /03.: ,M:191403</23./+5/2342/ ?/2 47

48 3.: ,: ::/+0; ,3+81./8:;2</2=30:562,32-+7(*.8-9/:_3+/2-3+3:19<8-2?23: ,/7M<8-2?23,-.:S A : /53.: ,< /:/++:I+8-73:/993+= S3++19: A ?32/ ,( "Z =A:03+M<3237+3:,303+A.+-+71??910&%?21:3+0-=I??-7=303+/55-+,26+,0)% 9$:(O8832:5-:32< /0: ,32:19-,/73+:.8-9/ : 1532: /+7-;230M ?? ,1<<380:; I:03+ /5F219:17N-++9/2.M17+13:S38, ,1<<380:; :03+/5.I:03+ JP37D8-9)%%)L( J0-,8-7323B12:.bI773:0/+,/2,-:32-+7:2;,L-:/9/2<3-,93,VBc*$930(+1M ,=3+<8-..?;<3: /80-8?/: /8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,( </.726++/5,/0/42/s%T"%%9;83:0/:S I..9;8-+732( "[ P3432/+:3532,-3+ 1??7-27S3++19: ,=/:0-7=30J9$:L-8A?30/53+?32-1,3?; M93, 7S3+0/.:-+0325/88?;#%;2M179;80"% </..3+-,30:0/+,/2,3+./8832 ]48I?8/:: ]J:012;?3+48/03L(* ,3232:0/+,/2, =512,/ ,-3+3./+S6:0323:93,=3+:I+0-8' "(,)--)'2,6=)*US,)--)'2-4B),#2-.5SVd:0/+,/2, :8-+S32: ?172/4-17=AI,31532=/530M177-2,3293,5-+,532,-320-8?/::3001?172/4-d 17 )( /$'5-),'$'2d</:320?;; :: :?3: J_/()% ?;8/+,:</:-:L( V30037SA2, ;< ,=/:0-7= ,/832M4S12,32M<2/0034S388:-,32-83M<I.S32+3$0300<I7,:02A.30_(M:/ /+7::: , "\ M./+,3293,./+:.S3<3+I003:0-8;81./80-8?/::3:_3+/ : : ,(P-)&/)'#/53.:0395-+,5-8,30, U23 5/+:.38-7;562,32381./80M601532;<26.3,33.:-:0323+,3+3,:./ / ,-32J:19/88323,37S120/5D*DOPQL( X3,?23:3+0/:S1+/5:_3+/2-32M32,30538; /<: ,-3+3:1932, ::/+03M93+3+,2-+7:72/,3+42;,/73+:+129/8(V30./+,324125U23+I00-7; <3723+:3<26.3+/5/<: ,-32+;29/+1??7-23+,2-+7M93+= :39? ?21:3+05-:3+,2-+742/,/73+::-06/:S1+(V30./+5U23 5/+:.38-7;412:0;-9?8-./:S1+3+3/5k993+, ,<A2?329;+3,M93+:+;2 9/+:-32/0+3,<A23+5-8A.393,4123.:39?38)%?21:3+0./+,305U ; 238/ ,/73+::-06/:S1+(N12-..3; A,53+,-7M./+, /+:.S317:;5U23=3+:-.0:93::-7;41230/3+I )<.,$/)-$'2/5 "Z F39?32/062A : /091:4U23+M:19,3293,./+7-60:8/ ,J L(N12=18, ?32/ ,51.:323.:? ( "s O24/ /"\\)T12./+3+?;B12,T53:08/+,305-:03/0,33.:-:0323+,3:0/+,/2, /2 0-8: ,34/.0-:.3412=18, ;,32( "[ 48

49 ?23,-.:S1+3+3M4123.:39? = /,3+, ]:5U20:0123]M ]:0123]M]9-,,38:]38832]:9;]J4123.:39?38-412=18,0-88/+,:7S3++19:+-0030L(X- =/2, S1205-,323:?3:-4-:32-+7/5,3++30I?3./03712-:32-+7+;25-?23: <26./5.8-9/?/2/93023-:;2</2=30:562, ( Tabell 1: Aktuelle klimaparametere, og justeringsmuligheter, ved nedskalering av sårbarhet for klimaendringer på kommunenivå K/2/93032 O+=30 H1./83S6: F39?32/062 N21:0$0-+3,/732 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, W/ X3.:0:3:1+7 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$;2 W/ B3,<A2 N23.53+:/53.:0239+3,<A2 E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3- B3,<A2:-+03+:-030 E+0/88993+,2-+7$Z0-932 W/ B3,<A2:19:+A E+0/88993+,2-+7$9+, W/ X-+, X-+,-+03+:-030 E+0/8893+,2-+7$:3. W/ N23.53+:/53.: , E+0/88,/7323+,2-+7$9+, B3-49

50 SL >D=E25=D32F;=;C C(" c-8sat17<u23.2/40-+,-./01232 X;2/9<-:S1+32;:.-:: ,-./012:I:039: / :0/+,32 <"&.<,M175--,3+/+83,+-+7<I773?;3+194/003+, /062:19190/ /2-/+032/581./839-8SAT38832<U23.2/40-+,-./01232(V3:: ,303+=38832 <3:.S3, /062:1919=/+,832324/ ,C-4&)'/5,3:/993 -+,-./012:I:0393+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(V305-8,324125U23/57SA23+,3;4; 03: :8/ ,-./012:I: /0-8?/:+-+74A ,38-7 /+<34/8-+7/ I?3:I:039./+7-:( K;/883+-5;32=/2,30:-,3+<37I++38:3+/5"\\%T0/8830?;7;003+:012/ U29323?23:3+0/:S1+/5)s%($<>%T17C0-)&-.+,$'5$&.,"-$'$,$.,$/42/)\8/+,93, (N3883:412, ,-./ / /0, ,30/8S3203M17/0/883412:A.32;:3873: /5<3723?30<U23.2/ :19,3+]23003]JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( Årsak-virkning tilnærming O0:3+02/809301,-:.723?-9/+73/5,33.:-:0323+,39-8SAT17 <U23.2/40-+,-./012:I: ,3+:;./803TK3("5)<<)'JQODV"\\CL(B1273 5U208/ ; ,3++30I?3+-+,-./012:I:03932JaAI3217E/88 )%%)L(*+,-./ I003: ,,-3+:/993+=3+73+,3;2:/.:T :.S3,3'93++3:.38-7/ =7/$-&)-JKw?23::623L9-8SA30M17,3003 V : ,32(* ,30230I?3+31?323232QODV93,3+ 4S32,3d=-)#,.#>"'#$'5$&.,"-JKw?324129/+_3T]-+,-_/012:4126:3-+?324129/+_3 35/86/0-1+]L(V /870317$38832/ ?; :TM0-8:0/+,:T17 23:?1+:-+,-./ ,=3+:-.0;35/ I038:3+0-8QODVT 8/+,3+3:9-8SA? SA=/+,8-+732J] /8?324129/+_3 ($<>%/$-&'$'2)')J*w-9?/_0:L(V30-++3<U232/0,3+1?? , =532032< ,3+439T83,,303T?KTM :/008/+7:3+:/993+=3+73+,3 ;2:/.:T :.S3,3Jb1::38"\\\L( 50

51 Påvirkning Tilstand Respons Informasjon Menneskelige aktiviteter Energiforbruk Transport Industri Landbruk Annet Påvirkning Ressurser Miljø- og naturressurstilstand Luft Vann Land Levende organismer Informasjon Sosial respons; handling, vedtak Økonomiske og miljøpolitiske aktører Offentlige organer Privat virksomhet Husholdninger Internasjonale organisasjoner Figur 8: PSR-modellen for miljøindikatorer (OECD 1994) Sosial respons; handling, vedtak =153,:/.?;+/:S1+/80+-5;J:34123.:39?38c-8SA532+,3?/ "\\)d QODV"\\CdB12,-:.c-+-:0322;,"\\CL(V =532017:;<26.0:19 91,388?;8/ /4-:.3+-5;32M:?3:-380?; ;M17,/412 <U23.2/40:?A2:9;8-:03, /5723+:3034I:-:.39-8SA:?A2:9;8(b ,38:3+3/5/+53+,38:3:192;,30=/293,4A20?21<83932(K;.1996+/80+-5; ,388=/29/+412:A.0; M93+: <I7732?;, ,3;2:/.T :.S3,3+(V :03 532:S1+3+<3:0;2-/09/ ,3.8/::-:.39-8SA0-8:0/+,:<3:.2-538:3+317:; ??0-8(V ?/: :39? ,30 Lokale bærekraftindikatorer O0:?3: ?;"\\%T0/883032,3+194/003+,3/ ; *<"&.<)* <U23.2/40-+,-./01232(V30=/25U /:S1+/ T3++I023+,- -+,-./ :;17:-(c/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L93+32/0,3032?;,3081./83+-5;309/+./+5-:30-853: /9:.2-00,3:-:03;23+3M17:;53,/0 -+,-./ /.0-:.320/00-< <3: :?21:3::32(O M93+ 17:;.2-0-: /953.:03+/5,30:0123/+0/ /83<U23.2/40-+,-./ /0, / =/2:.S3,,-?21:3::3293,+"<&)<$2* 5)<,.&)<#)Mc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.J"\\#L5-:320-89/+73?1: /2-+732M :?3:-380-O+78/+,(c ,380/.38:332-:37: /2/+0-412:6.:3:: -+,-./ = /5324/ <26.3+M-..3</ /5 -+,-./0123+3(a3232,30/80:;-..3:;9I3;5-:30-8( O0/ :.:?A2:9;832-+,-./0123+3:+.&,$#&)<U23.2/40-++=18,(*..39-+:0- O+78/+,32,309/+733.:39?832?;-+,-./012:I: ,=AI:068-.1??4/0+-+7 /5781</8<U23.2/ M17:197S /+7042/3+4/ :5/28-7 1??4/0+-+7JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(V30./+5U23/ ,93, :;+;2,307S38, /581./83-+,-./ /0-8?/:+-+7M17?;:/9939;03 51

52 :19?;? ,30,/5-.0-7;53-31??-++:? S , :?21:3::321??910-++:?-8842/4/73.:?320-:3( Bruken av lokale indikatorer *+,-./01232./+03+.3:<26.0-9/ :/993+=3+732(V30./+5U23412; 0I,38-77SA233+42/90-, : M;7-3071,0<-8,3/ :0/+,M ;=18,3237+:./?93, /50-80/.17=/+,8-+7(B129/80 5-8,305U23:+/ I?32.'.<6#)-JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(j+./ S38,3223+0$'+"-()-)'5)/+/8I:32' *+,-./ ;237-: ; :0/+,M4123.:39?38 9-8SA0-8:0/+,J]9-8SA15325;.-+7]L( *+,-./ ;0I,38-77SA : J] :/+/8I:3]L( *+,-./ ;:/ ?23:0/:S1+93,/+,23Ji<3+_=9/2.-+7i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aAI3217E/88)%%)L' *+,-./ $'+"-(.#>"'*"2*5)C.,,',305-8:-0-8 =18,+-+7::./?3+,3/2<3-, /83/.0A232( *+,-./ ="<$,$#&:0I2-+7',305-8:-93,418.35/8703:19, :03 9;8726??3+17< ,+3,3:/993+=3+732,32,307SA23: ?2-+:-? ?18-0-:.3/ ( *+,-./ ($'$#,-.,$/:0I2-+7',305-8:-,32,30-:0A22372/,32 /,9-+-:02/:S1+3+:1932=153,/.0A23+J4123.:39?3853,.1+:3.53+:562, / <I77-+7:/8032+/0-5L93+, /

53 <2-+73:-++412;:/+.:S1+323,30/,9-+-:02/:S1+3+=/27S120M ; 4/0039-+, ,30/8S3203?18-0-:.3/57SA238:32( Kalde og varme indikatorer R19<-+/:S1+3+/5,-93+:S1+3+3]/+/8I:30I?3]17]:0I2-+7:93::-73 :/993+=3+732] <26.:192;,32:195/ /+7:3+ :./8/ :.+AI/.0-7=3017h+:./8/:197S38,32,305-./+<3037+3:19 -)#"'.'#(a5-:-+,-./ ; =/+,8-+7m-..3</235u ,3M32, /0,3+32+AI/.0-7d-+4129/:S1+3+9;17:;:./?3 -)#"'.'# =1:, ;8726??3+(c;8726??3+9;412:0; /:S1+3+17< ;6083,3=/+,8-+7?;</.726++/5, /:S1+3+(V30./+-,3++3:/993+=3+73+:.-883:938819&.<5)17/.-() -+,-./01232Jc/_Y-88-52/I17x/,3.&"\\#L(V3]./8,3]32-:-+23+,I2.3, /78-7,30/8S ,3M /8,30-8/0,3:./?3223:1+/+:=1: / ;8726??32(V3]5/293]7-2,3++323:1+/+:3+M S3+7S38, 6?23:-: ,3..3+,3412,3:/993+=3+73+3,3-++7;2-(* ,32=/2 5-5-:0=512,/+,368-.3/+/8I: /+238/0323: /,32/523:1+/+:( K13+730=32327S3++19-,3/80I?3./ ;5-:3=512,/+,-::3238/:S1+3+3&.' 1??023(*?2/.:-:5-89/+4-++3:01235/2-/:S /??( n./8,] (TQ2>5=CI?5 c-8sa15325;.-+7 P30+-+7:/+/8I:3 b3+_=t9/2.-+7 R1+:3.53+:562,32-+7 O5/ P/?? ,?F4;2;F n5/29] Figur 9: Kalde og varme indikatorer (MacGillivray og Zadek 1995) Ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp O :.-883+;2,307S38,3281./83-+,-./012:I:039327;2?;,305-./+./ /80?32:?3.0-5',305-8:-=5125-,0:I: ]"/)'+-.3"23')5]38832 ]')5)'+-.3"23"==](V-::301=153,91,3883+3/581./83-+,-./012:I:03932=/2 68-.=3032<;,3+;2,307S38, : <26.:192;,32JS40/< ,32L(V3+4A2:03./ S32+30I?-:.]./8,3]:I: ;7- = , / /85/2-/:S1+?;30+/:S1+/80+-5;(c10:/0032,3+ /+,23./ ,-./012:I: ?23730/5;5U23]5/293]17932,30/8S3203?;308/ /4-:.+-5;M412,-,-::37S ;-++7;-3+81./8 <3: ::/993+=3+7( 53

54 Tabell 2 Typiske forskjeller mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp baserte indikatorsystemer V/0/ *+,-./01232 b26.:192;,3 ]Q53+42/T17T +3,] ]B3,3+42/T17T 1??] B/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-.. <2600+3,?;4I8.3:T ; H1./83,/0/350( :6??832093,+/:S1+/8 :0/0-:0-.. Q403]./8,3] -+,-./ :0/+,/2,-:3203,/0/( Q403]5/293] -+,-./ , /,/5:0/+,/2,-:3203,/0/( *+4129/:S1+17,3</00 P/?? / :0/0 B/:S1+/83:0/06:562, K18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/0-5 :0I /80 H1./82/?? :3.53+:562,32-+7 Q7:;=325-8,30-?2/.:-:5U /??(O :39?3832RQ@FPE JRQ996+3T@F/0TPE?? L(V /:S1+/ /:S1+::I:039: /:S /8174I8.3:.1996+/85-2.:19=30(@I: ]+3,3+42/T17T1??]-,3+412:0/+,/0,/0/3+3-=153,:/ /801753, /0,3<8-2< /83<3: :?21:3::3217: /7412;:3+,3 :0I2-+7::-7+/832]1??1532]-4125/80+-+7::I: / (@/90-,-732 :I:03930:032.0?23730/53+]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8+U29-+7M-,3+412:0/+,/0:0/03+ =/2?;8/ ;2/?? ??1532-:I: <3: ,-..M 17/0:0/03+:385<26.32RQ@FPET,/0/ ;.-+7/ /85-2.:19= : (@ ]153+42/T17T+3,]17]+3,3+42/T17T1??] 0-8+U :32:3717:;-+13+/5,34;412:A.3+3:19=/25U20?;; /83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:-+,-./01232M+135-:./ </.30-8( <U23.2/40:/993+=3+7Jc1::17b )%%"L(V3++30I?3+-+,-./01232<83 4A2:00/00-< %&"'"($)': ,,38412;41260:34-+/+: :32 )% ,/$&<$'2#.-C)$5412;562,323:;2</2=30?;+/:S1+/80+-5;- 412=18,0-84/00-7,19174/00-7,19:,2-53+,3412=18,:190A ,3 )" JO5/+:)%%%Mb "\\)MR388I17E7,32)%%%L(K;($<>%192;,3032 1??-412<-+,38:393,]F=3Y81</8@ @9/88*:8/+,V35381?-+7@0/03:] J@*V@L-b/2</,1:M"\\CJR/8I948)%%&L(*)%%&<83,308/ ,-..93,< :3+]O /8X68+32/<-8-0I*+,3k]M17,30<83?23:3+0320< /5-/80#C-+,-./ )&#8/+,(*+,-./ ?? = I?3:;2</2=30,30320/8319' :.M :.M <-1817-: :.3:./?0J/+021?173+L(* =18,32:I: /+0/88 -+,-./01232:19<3: /0620-8:0/+,3+JS40/<3883+?;+3:03:-,3L( V :A.3+3?;; :;2</2=30:-+,-./01232?;9-8SA192;,305-:32/0, :83.0:./?93,K@PT91,3883+(c/+0/293,<;,30-8:0/+,:T17 20 International Monetary Fund (IMF) har utviklet et system som består av fire indikatorgrupper: "Indicators of external and domestic debt". "indicators of reserves adequacy", "financial soundness indicators" og "corporate sector indicators" (se 21 Slike indikatorsystemer er bl.a. tatt i bruk av verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO), jf for eksempel 54

55 ?; :-+,-./01232JS4,34-234A2:03./ /< ,32L :?1+:-+,-./01232JS4./ ]_16+02I_=/2/_032-:0-_:]- 0/< ,32LM93+9/+<3+I :/ :.3;2:/.T ??:300 <U23.2/40-+,-./01291, ,8320-,/09/+0/293,]+/ ]?; :-+,-./01232M:19]/+0/88:.23,]17] :0/53.:02395U2]M /00-8:0/+,:-+,-./0123+3< ,3093, A.1:I:039-+,-./01232J:19]039?32/062]17]+3,<A2]L( Tabell 3 Eksempler på sårbarhetsindikatorer hentet fra Environmental Vulnerability Index (Kaly mfl 2003) D/03712I *+,-_/012 D/03712I *+,-_/012 D16+02I K32_3+0148/+,/23/83::0=/+"%93032:/<153 a-7=^-+,: _=/2/_032-:0-_: :3/83538K32_3+0148/+,/23/<381^"%93032: V2I?32-1,: J_1+0(L /0-1+^-0=-+) :14_1/:0 G30?32-1,: B69< ^+3+,39-_:?3_-3:?32:l6/23 a3/0:?388: :8/+,/23/ D18,:?388: B69<32148/+,/+,:3/<12,32::=/23,^-0= 10=32_ : V-:0/+_301+3/23:0_ E+021?173+-_ V3+:-0I14?31?83-+_1/:0/8/23/: Y31817-_/80=23/0: X18_/+13: 0=23/0: K1?68/0-1+,3+:-0I O/20=l6/.3: K1?68/ ^0= F:6+/9-: H1::14+/062/8_1532 c3/+?32_3+0/++6/8_=/+7314 K3:0-_-,3:6:3 /23/14-_3 N320-8-m326:3 B69<3214:8-,3: G/:03^/032 b-1817-_/80=23/0: B69<321423?1203,127/+-:9 K21,6_0-1+^/:03: 160<23/.:?32:l6/ : G/:03023/ /+,/23/ B69<3214:?-88:141-8/+,=/m/2,16: F10/801++/ =0-9?1203, :6<:0/+_3:?32I3/2?32:l6/ :14 F1k-_-+,6:02-3: 8/+,/23/ B69<321453=-_83:?32:l6/ :14 B69<3214:?3_-3:-+021,6_3, 8/+,/23/ :-+_3"\%%?32:l6/ : c/k-969)c=162@q )_1+_3+02/0-1+ 8/+,/23/ K32_3+0/7314?1?68/0-1+^-0=/ 3::01:/43 O+,/+7323,:?3_-3: :/+-0/0-1+ B69<3214:?3_-3:.+1^+01=/53 G/0326:3 <3_1933k0-+_0 K32_3+0148/+,/23/,372/,3, K32_3+0/7314+/062/8/+, B69<3214+3^4-:=32-3::01_.:123k?/+,3, 23721^0=53730/0-1+_ :=32-3:344120:/,,3,010=3_16+02I 239/-+-+7 V33?9-+-+7J01+3:$I3/2L K32_ :02-/8m1+3:30/:-, :8/+,/23/L K32_3+0149/2-+3m1+3:30/:-,3 K32_ :=32-3::01_.:1532T B69<3214^/212_-5-8:02-43I3/2:15320=38/:0 4-:=3, #%I3/2:^-0=-+0= I B69< ^+:?3_-3:^=-_= O /88I238/03,837-:8/0-1+^-0= 9-72/03160:-,30= /8/23/ 23768/0-1+: D16+02I_=/2/_032-:0-_: F10/88/+,/23/ E23/148/+,3+7/73,-+0=3/72-_ , P/ =14:= :0-+714/+I73+30-_/88I91,-4-3,127/+-:9: 8/+,<12, /88/+,/23/ E++6/8+69< /0-1+/80162-:0: E80-06,32/+73J=-7=3:0? ?8-3,<I0=3/532/ =14:0/I-+0=3 :6<02/_00=381^3:0? _16+02I$8/+,/23/ _16+02IL C() B12:.3412:A.93,81./839-8SAT17<U23.2/40-+,-./01232 O0+I8-7/5:860030?21:S3.093, ?2A5-+7/5<U23.2/40-+,-./ : /2-+732:197S38,32')5)'+-.3"23"==0I?3 -+,-./012</:3203:I:03932/+53+,0?;+3001??9-8SA192;,30JE/88948)%%)L(B13+ :3+02/83324/ ' 55

56 N12/0-+,-./01232:./84;-++48I038:3?; /8032,30/57SA23+,3/0 <26.3+/5-+,-./ <83:0-83.:-:0323+,3:0I2-+7::I:03932( N12I ;:./?381./803-32:./?0-8-+,-./ <26.3+/5,-::332, ;.1<835/87/ /83-+,-./ :-:0323+,381./83 -+,-./01232:19:./87SA23, ;7SA23:/ ,33+:/2030<-8,353,2/?? ]1??1532]- :I:03930(O+9;03;8A:3,3003?;32;: :300:0/+,/2,-:3203.S32+3-+,-./01232M17:;;? /85/2-/:S1+7S3++195/87/530:0A223 /+0/ :-+,-./01232( X-,323=/2,30-?2/.:-:5-:0:37=380/57SA23+,3;=/3+0-8: /,9-+-:02/0-5.19?30/+:317./?/: ?;9-8SA192;,30412;.6++34;0-8+13]+I00]+;2,307S38,32932:I:039/0-:./2<3-,-, /83 9-8SA532+/2<3-,30(c ,23-32,3003:3719=5125-, =/2 0-8:/003+?32:1+93,30.8/20, /+:5/ ,+309-8SA532+/2<3-,' 3+9-8SA532+83, :5/23+,3( O0:3+02/ ??4A / ]9-8SA ]Jc*RT L5/20-80/.412;:0I2.3:0I2-+7:,-/ :0/ (X :;9;035/ /53026+,:.2-519:0/ , /839-8SA532+? J26+,:.2-5FT\&s42/"\\&LM48323?21:S , 9;8: ; /839-8SA-+,-./ I /?? / :0/0?;9-8SA ;,30(V302393:0:3+02/83?21:S /2' O+4,-)5'$'2)'7S3++194A20/5, SA, /03+3( O0:0A :?21:S3.093,60?2A5-+7/59-8SA-+,-./ :A.: J,30:;./803^4#&)-45=-"#>)&,),L( V3+194/003+,3:/0: /c-8SA532+,3?/ ::-,3?; 4,-)5'$'2:19: ,-./0121??:300</:320?;7S38,3+,3 :0/08-73:0I2-+7::-7+/832?;9-8SA ;,30(V3+1?? /+.3+5/2; :0I2-+7::I:039:19:.6883: /5:0/ SA9;8 7S3++19<3, =30412:0/ ?2A (*2/?? / 6023,+-+7:/2<3-,30<83,301?? /9<-:S1+:+-5;3019;< ,-./012:I:039: AI412:0/08-79;8:0I2-+7/ ,6:320( E2<3-,30<83-:03,3+?23: ,321532: n*,h:/ /80 9-8SA532+]M17,30<836+,32: ,+-+73+/0n?5_#.(<$'2)'*#&.<*$&&)* C-4&)#*#"(*),*#,.,<$2*-.=="-,)-$'2##6#,)(]JV / / / (48( "\\ZM:(&L(*,h:/ ?23: :03,3+30-+,-./0121??:300f /003+,3:;,/+f93,3+7S3++197/+7/5C#+/:S1+/839-8SA9; ,3 439? :/0:+-+7:192;, /809-8SA532+/2<3-,7S ,:.2-5FT\&s(V :8/70-8-/80"C%.1996+/839-8SA9;817)[% 9-8SA-+,-./ ?? ,3:/993439:/0:+-+7:192;,3+3( V /03+36+,32:023.32/0412:8/73+39;412:0;::19($<>%-+,-./01232T17/0 56

57 57,3-..3?2303+,3232;7-30<U23.2/40?32:?3.0-5?;, /83 9-8SA532+/2<3-,30( *^4#&)-45=-"#>)&,),7S3++194A203, SA, /03+3-?32-1,3+"\\)T\Z ;:.68830S ;8JNI8.3:9/++3+-b6:.326,"\\sdG/+7"\\sL' 5U AI412#.("-5'),*-.=="-,)-$'242/ :0/0?; 9-8SA ;, :0/ :-:0323+, :/912,+03 2/?? ::I: U AI412&"((4'.<*($<>%#,6-$'2 5U AI412#.(()'<$2'$'2* ?;9-8SA ;,30 b6:.326,?21:s3.030:0/ /3023+0:0/ /0-54-+/+:-320/5:0/ I+,-7=3032M93+, =53203+?/2/ /8608A? /5?21:S (b/ /230A+:.319;23+,I2.39;8: :19 7S/8, / /83:0I2-+7:-+,-./01232M:19-7S3+:.I8,03:,30?21:S ??4/0030:1930]8A403<26,,]42/,3:0/08-739I+,-7= ,053-:-?21:S3.030(R / ?21:S ,308A40319; <-,2/0-8; :I:039:19: $#,)5)'+"-2;,3+,3 2/?? ::I:03932?;9-8SA ;,30(c-,053-:-?21:S3.030<83,30-9-,8320-,7S120.8/2042/:0/08-739I+,-7=3032::-,3/0,30:I:039309/+A+:.30; : $*,$<<)22*,$<3.:-:0323+,3815?;8/703 2/?? ::I:03932( K;726++/5,3+01, ?21:S = M<83, ," -+,-./012412:8/7'300:197S/8, /82/?? :0/08-739I+,-7= : : A+:.3019<3, /83:0I2-+7:-+,-./01232?; 9-8SA ;,30(N12:8/730:197S/8, /8-.=="-,)-$'2*,$<*#,.,<$2)* (6'5$2B),)-*-++3=18,32_/#%9-8SA-+,-./ ,3042/+/:S1+/839; :8-+S32(*:86002/?? ,30/+0I,30/0&)/5-+,-./0123+3<A25U : 412/ M[./+0-8?/::3:81./83412=18,93+:")/5,360?2A5,3 -+,-./0123+3< :8;00:8AI430412,-,332412/2<3-,:.2353+,3;0/-< /5/+, =3+:-.0:93::-7;<26.3JNI8.3:9/++3+-b6:.326,"\\sM 53,8377CM:)L(*3+0-,8-74/:3/5?21:S3.0308/9/+1?? ,38-+7/5 : ,-./ SA039/(*+,-./0123+3<83, / 0-8:5/23+,3c-8SA532+,3?/ :0-23:680/0192;,32M412:3+323;<8-23,6: :3.:( V30/+,23-+,-./012412:8/730:19?2-9U205/ &"((4'.<*#,6-$'2] :.-803:37607S3++19;< :6??8323+,3039/32/50I?3+']R19?30/+:317 =18,+-+732]M]9-8SA/2<3-, /+-:/:S1+]17]+U2-+7: ](N12,3 A /3+3:.-803,30-8:/ /7\%-+,-./0123+3: /,42/,3 ]:0/08-73]-+,-./0123+3(*:/993+,2/730-:86002/?? /, /83,38?21:S3.030<83, /+<34/8-+732:19:.-803:3753: /,3+ :0/08-73,383+/5?21:S3.030(a32<83,30/+<34/8030: ,-./012:I:039 93,"C.S32+3-+,-./ ,60:? S /']P3::62:T <26.]17]9-8SA.5/8-030](

58 F-8021:: / /003+,3412:A.:5-2.:19=30M:1917:;<83/.0-50:0A0030 /523?23:3+0/+03242/,3023, /03+3M=/2/+<34/ /?21:S /,< ??(V :0/ , ,:.2-5:190/21??-:37/+<34/ (a /5?21:S =/ /+00/00-<26.:I:0393+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L(*:86002/?? /?21:S3.030<8-2,30?3.0?;=-+, ;0/-<26.-+,-./0123+3M+13:1917:;./+412.8/23=512412/+<34/ /?21:S3.030-:; /, ??( O24/ /412:A.3+3./+:/993+4/003:-4A873+,3?6+.032JNI8.3:9/++3+- b6:.326,"\\sdg/+7"\\sl' b3723?30<u23.2/ h1./8e73+,/)"328-03,2a m17<u23.2/ <3723+:3072/,726++8/7412?2/.0-:.? :5/23+,38-03:i ::0i2-+7:, ( N12;7SA23,-:.6:S1+3+19<U23.2/ :0;38-79; -+,-./ ?/::3:, :<3=15( *+,-./012329;17:;0-8?/::3: : :199I+,-7=30:60A532M 0S3+3:03?21,6:3+017:/946++: ( O :4688<26./5<U23.2/40-+,-./ : / , /7173+<30I,38-7?18-0-:.17/,9-+-:02/0-5? ( *+0372/:S1+/5<U23.2/40-+,-./01232-:3+02/83:0I2-+7:, : ?8/+MA.1+19-?8/+17;2:938,-+732=380/57SA23+,3( O00/59;83+393,J$<>%C6=-"2-.((),5/2; ,32412;<3: SA0-8:0/+,3+-<I32Jc-8SA532+,3?/ "\\#L(K;</.726++/5, c-8SA532+,3?/ "\\#30412:8/ SA9;893,)Z0-8=A23+,3 -+,-./01232:195/293+0;5U ,3412;<3: <U23.2/ /+: / /c-8SA<I?2172/9930(X3,/5: /5?2172/ ??932.:19=30-?2172/9?32-1,3+M17,30<838/70: ?;/ :.6883?2A5360,34123:8;003-+,-./0123+3(V3032,32412:8;3+,3/0)-+.-$'2)-93, <26.3+/5-+,-./ =38042/5U23+,3<;,3-,30194/003+,3, /:S1+:T V307S3+:0;2;:3190I?3+-+,-./0121??:300: / <2-+731:: +U29323:I:03932/581./83<U23.2/40-+,-./01232:195-8<8-<26.0-5/2-73?18-0-:.317/,9-+-:02/0-53:0I2-+7:?21:3::32=12-:1+0/ /5723+: SA-+,-./ ,3<3:03412=;?+-+732JaAI3217 E/88)%%)L(O+6+,32:A.38:342/)%%%5-:32/0</23;003?21:3+0/5+12: ??7-2/0,3=/,,30/00-<26.9-8SA-+,-./ SA:0I2-+7::I:03932JbSA2+U:)%%)L( 58

59 C(& N12:A.?;; /83-+,-./01232?;.8-9/192;,30 a5/=/25-:;;<i773?;/5932:?3: /2-+732?;.8-9/192;,30ex /2-+732?;023192;,32: :U /+03+;2,30 7S38,3230/<832-+7/5:I:03932:19194/ /83.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:-+,-./01232' 81./8.8-9/?8/ d 81./8<323,:./?:?8/ d17 +3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91,38832( *B :,3071, ,33.:39? /883,-:: ;,3+3M93+</ ,304A2:03192;,3032,307S3++194A /003+,317:I:039/0-:. -++:/98-+7/5?2/.0-:.3324/2-+732JY E/88)%%)L(* <323,:./?:?8/ ,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91, ,309320/ , :?23,03324/ /412:A.:5-2.:19=30JE/88 17Y2153+)%%&L( * /883, ;,3+3./ /5-+,-./012:I:03932?8/::323: /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./ /2607/+7:?6+.0-+/:S1+/83M -9/ :;781</83,/0/:300M17412:A.32:;53,=S38?/ f=326+,3217:;s6: ,81./83,/0/t;:./8323+3,,/0/ /80+-5;( O+:3+02/ S : /5&.-,:195-: /81781./8 5/2-/:S1+M-9/ ,+AI/.0-7=30=380+3,?; ;( Lokal klimaplanlegging < :532.0AI:197SA2, ; I8.3:T :3 1532: :8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32JS42(0/< ,32L( b :91, s ?;* (v30327s3++194a20412:a.93, /581./83.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/ /88:+12: I8.3: M,3260/2<3-,-+7/581./83.8-9/237+:./? : /+7:? ,381./83?8/+?21:3::3+3( Tabell 4 Eksempel på lokalt klimaregnskap generert av SFTs klimakalkulator: Sogndal kommune for år 2000, tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter R-8,3 *+,6:02- ""%) E++3++U2-+7 "#%C a6:=18, #\s E++3+:0/:S1+U2412< % K21:3::60:8-?? *+,6:02- % V3?1+- "[ZZ& H/+,<26. "&"&% E+,23?21:3::60:8-?? &## c1<-83.-8,32 K32:1+T175/23<-832 "&\%[ H/:03<-83217<6::32 #CZ[ c1?3,17cd \%) N8I s%) E+,2391<-83.-8,32 "[\) %452D?B5FD=33 7U:RU 59

60 N2/953.:03+/5.8-9/? :1930.8/206002I /80? ;,332 68A:38-7.+I /953.:03+/ /83.8-9/?8/+32,3:-:03?/2;23+3M93+,30<I773217:;?;0-, / ,81./ ?8/ :/912,+30 02/+:?120T17/23/8?8/ /"\[%T17"\\%T0/8830(V34A2:033.:39?83+3?; 81./83.8-9/?8/+3260/2<3-,30/5+12: b3273+J"\\s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c3+.538,)%%)l( V30325-,323.+I : ,30;608A:330?103+:-/ /8-++:/0:-.8-9/? (V U23/57SA23+, ;2:0/08-7:0A /?8/ A2:03197/+7M175-,323:0A S3++194A2-+7/581./83.8-9/0-80/.(X-,32332,30/57SA23+,3/09-8SAT17.8-9/? <8-2:/000-8: =AI0?;,3+81./8?18-0-:.3,/7:12,3+17/ =/271,+1./,9-+-:02/0-5./?/: SA4/ ?30/+:3 JY E/88)%%)L(Q7:;=3232,307S1200-8:5/23+,3324/ //+,238/+, JD188-32"\\sMb30:-8)%%"MD c3+.538,)%%)L(B3,7/+73+-/+0/ :19=/24/:0/+:/009-8SA532+83,32./+5-:3:37;5U233+/ =-+, : / /? JY E/88)%%)L( Lokal beredskapsplanlegging R ,/ :/ :1?32/ :3<323,:./?JBQ`)%%"L( X3,.2-:32: /232;=;+,0323:385M./ <3 1??2300=18, /8346+.:S1+32M M<-:0;? S3++194A23 1??2I,,-+7:/.:S1+32M ??7/532:19328/700-8<2/++53:3+3017=38:3T 17:1:-/8: ( *8A?30/5"\\%T0/88303+,230<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-B1273./2/.03242/;5U23.2-7: ;<8-932: (V30039;5-:3-8I:/ =18,',3+ :-..32=30:?18-0-:.3:-06/:S /0S32+03??304/80d /53+:0/, ?83.:17:;2</2-+42/: d /003+,3+/062./0/:021432?;4A2:03 =/85,38/5"\\%T0/8830J+I00;2:12./+3+-"\\)17: ?;g:08/+,30-"\\#L JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 60

61 :/946++]M:19:.-:: /730412,/73+:<323,:./?:? M7-2</233+ :699/2-:.190/83/5.8-9/3+,2-+7:19:/946++::-..32=30:?21<839(H D"((4')')#<323,:./?:/2<3-,32:U28-7.+I ?8/ ( b323,:./?:=3+:i+:./8-++/2<3-,3:<;,3-,3+12,-+u23/23/8?8/ m 9-8SA192;,30M: :1:-/8T17=38:3192;,30(`+,32:A.38:32604A20412 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:3+JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( P-$/$<<$2)*B4(.'$,0-)*"-2.'$#.#>"')-*:? <323,:./?:T17 :/946++::-..32=30:/2<3-,307S3++19:-+,380/.38:3-+12:.23,+-+7:0S3+3:0317 7S I..3:4123<I773+,3/2<3-,(V / :19 <-+,383,,938819< : M17=/2,3293,3+ 93, :46+.:S1+( *483238/+,32,303.:39?832?;+/:S1+/83<323,:./?::02/ I /062./0/:021432:19:I:039/0-: :;,30-)2$"'.<)17<"&.<) Y2153+)%%&L(O ,30; /804125/80+-+7:+-5;32 :I+8-77SA2-+7/52-:-.1(a3232&.-,C.#)-,)532.0AI30:3+02/80:0-..12,(N ,325-:32303.:39?38?;./2060:+-00:19412:A.32;:I+8-77SA /23(F-8./203032,30.+I0030:03,4/:03237-:032</:32031??8I:+-+732:8-./0,6./ ?;,32,6<12M174;932,30/8S /:S1+193.:02395U2M:.23,4/23M48194/23 1(/( Figur 10: Flomkart fra USA, her med kartutsnitt fra Teton County Generert ut fra en nasjonal karttjeneste laget av Federal Emergency Management Agency, lagt ut på 61

62 F-8:5/23+,3./20</: /:S1+326+, :;-B1273M<8(/(-237-/5 E23/8-:?21:S3.030J:.23,L17BXOJ4819LMS4(3.:39?386+,32(N12,3832/5B :,30+;./200-87S ?;* :195-:324/23: :03-+TM:+AT :.23,M17,329/+6042/30B1273:./20:195-:32= ;,32:1932./208/70./ :37+3,0-8: ,323+3,0-8+-5;93, <I J<8-2+U /80-./?-0038#L(R/200S3+3:03+342/9:0;2-9-,8320-,-..3:19, I ,30?2/.0-:.3<323,:./?:/2<3-,30-,3+ 412:0/+,/0, ?;41238A? ,3212,+303J17238/0-505/+: S L:-,32 )& ( Figur 11: Norsk eksempel på beredskapskart for stein- og snøskred 24 *E23/8-:?21:S ,30?8/+3219; /003+,3./20</:3200S3+3:03?; 192;,30<323,:./?J: ,32L(b323,:./?-++7;2:19300/5")=153,039/ )# ( K21<83930=32M:19-23:03+/5E23/8-:?21:S3.030M:I+3:-9-,8320-,;5U23/0 /9<-:S1+:+-5;3093,=3+:I :/98-+7M53,8-.3=18, /5,/0/M :;8/ :I+3:;:0;-:0-893,0-87S ::62:320-8<;,3;30/< I00330:8-.0:I:039JE/8817Y2153+)%%&L( 23 Se (stein- og snøskred), (kvikkleire) og =282&strBoxColor=99CCFF&strYAH=>NVE>%3Cb%3EVann%3C%2Fb%3E>Flomvarsel>Flomsonekartprosjektet (flomsoner). 24 Kilde: Tilsvarende eksempel finnes for kvikkleireskred ( 25 De øvrige er: natur, landbruk, kulturminner, rekreasjon, landskap, forurensning, kyst/fiskeri, plan, vannforsyning, befolkning og reindrift. 62

63 Figur 12: Struktur for planlagt informasjonstjeneste om beredskapsarbeid 26 Nedskalering av nasjonale og globale klimamodeller V /20</: /:S1+:19325-:06+,32JS42(N-762"&LM-++7;2-3+8/+702/,-:S1+?;9-8SA192;,30,329/+:A.32;-,3+0-4-:323192;,32:1932 :U28-7<38/:03093,9-8SA:./, ;,3293,:U28-7:012360:8-??38832/+, SA<38/:0+-+7(F2/,-:S1+380=/2,30035U207S120:19,38/5+/:S1+/ ;.+-+7:?2172/ :19=S38?39-,,38412; ; /:S1+/89-8SA? (V3++302/,-:S :;0/001??-/2<3-,3093,; +3,:./ </83.8-9/91, ,3293,;4;4239./20:195-: / /85/2-/:S /?/2/ ,329/+-+3:03197/+7./+/583,3./20:195-:320-8:5/23+, /2-/:S :3.53+:32/5.8-9/5/2-/:S1+32( V = /:S1+/833.:39?832?;237-1+/81781./8 +3,:./ S /:S1+/83:/993+=3+732JD13+"\\sMH-5329/+17 c32-,-0=)%%)mg/0:1+948"\\sl(v303217:;1?? :03,32,329/+./+:06, ,380/-+032/.0-50-;30/< / /83 :;2</2=30:/+/8I:32 )s (`+,32325-:0303.:39?38?;237-1+/85/2-/:S1+/5.8-9/,/0/ = /,30+12:.3P37D8-9?2172/9930M17,32] ,-32]32< Kilde: 27 Se for eksempel Storbritannia Nederland USA Sør-vest USA Mist-Atlantisk region i USA Karibien Canada Australia Arktis 63

64 Figur 13: Eksempel på karbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i klimadata, her med eksempelet varighet av dager med snø ( vinterdager ) Lokale klimasårbarhetsindikatorer *?21:S3.030]H<$(.,)*HB.'2)*F4<')-.C$<$,6*$'*1"-O.6N*"M$"3)M"'"($M* T)-#=)M,$/)#*"'*T"<$M$)#*.'5*?(=.M,#]=/2D*DOPQ/2<3-,3093,; /20</:320-+,-./012:I:039:19/+0I,301532JQob )%%&L(F-8:5/23+,3:19 -,30:I: :./ MA+:.329/+17:;=32;4; /8:;2</2= <;,3.8-9/3+, /? J/80:; ,832412;23,6:323 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32L(X-, ,3232:I: ,-./ /8 0-8?/:+-+7:35+3JS42(0/< ,32L( Tabell 5 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for klimatilpasning (O Brien mfl 2003) *+,-./012039/ *+,-./01232 E+,38:I::38:/ :;2</23+U H1./8:;2</2= /3+, J=10388$23:0/62/+0M:.17<26.M8/+,< :.323L E+,38:I::38:/ :;2</23+U J-+,6: S3238/ :19=30L H1./8:;2</2= /? E+,383+DQ ) T60:8-??42/-+,6:02-3+/5:/983,3 81./8360:8-?? E+,383+38,23-,3+I2.3:/.0-53< ( H1./80-8?/:+-+7: / E+,383+</ ,3+:/983,3< (,39172/4-:.34/ B I00-+7:2/03 H1./8:I::38:300-+7:?217+1:3 64

65 X3,;41230/ /+/8I:3/5=512,/+,393++3:.38-73MA.1+19-:.317 +/06293::-7323::62:3+35/ M:A.329/+;-,3+0-4-: :.S ,=3+:I+0-8./?/: ;9A ,2-+732:194A8732/5303+, / ,-7.8-9/? (*605/87/5-+,-./ ?/:+-+7:35+3=/2 9/+8/ /0-502)')-)<,?32:?3.0-5M,329/+/+0/2/0=AI/+,38 I2.3:/.0-53M8/5/+,38</ M3+?1: I00-+7:2/03M8/5 /2<3-,:83,-7= , A.1+19-< =AI0-8?/:+-+7:35+3(V I?3-+,-./01232:19=/2:0128-.=3093,, ,+-+7:5-:190/803:19 $'#,$,4#>"')<<)-+,-./01232( N12; :/ /8:;2</2=30:-+,3.:<8-2, ,-./ ,M17:699320:/ :;2</2=30:-+,3.:(a532-+,-./012-+,3.:323:6042/ 4A873+, ' *+,3.:532,- w J4/.0-:.532,-f :532,-L y "%% J9/.:-969:532,-f :532,-L K;726++8/7/5,-::3< <8-2,30:;?21,6: :;2</2=30:./20M:19- +3:03197/+7.1<83:0-8./ /5/2-/<832( Figur 14 Eksempel på kartbasert fremstilling av regionale variasjoner i tilpasningsevne og sårbarhet, her med eksempel for vinterturisme 28 *+,-./01291, / ,03.:39?38?; /T17T+3, 0-8+U29-+7(*+,-./0123+3:197S38,32:;2</2= /80-8?/:+-+7: =153,:/.</:320?;81./83,/0/M93+-+,-./0123+3:197S38,32.8-9/3+, :01272/,</:320?;+3,:./832-+7/5+/:S1+/ </83.8-9/91,38832( 28 Hentet fra foredraget Klima i endring. Hvor sårbart er Norge? Og hva med Voss som vintersportssted?. Materialet vil bli publisert i en rapport fra CICERO. 65

66 66 c1, m:19?;? m238/0-5] ]m-,3+412:0/+,/0-+,-./ ?/:+-+7:35+332</:320?; A.1+19-:.317,39172/4-:.3:0/0-: ?;,/0/:19:?3:-4-.0:A.32;<3: ?/:+-+7: I ,30; 7S3++194A2360:8-??:23,6:323+,30-80/ / /0-8?/:+-+7( c1,3883+:-.032:37-607/+7:? ;5-: /81781./85/2-/:s1+- 3+'.#>"'.<:/993+=3+7MS4(?23:3+0/:S1+3+/568-.3]B1273:./20](V3++30I?3+ 562, /+4123.:39?385U23+I /5+/:S1+/830-80/.173+ J)%%&LM./+,3,/++3607/+7:? /8,3</00199/+:./87;,I? ?21<839: /8:;2</2= /3+, /0-80/.( V3++30I? /T17T+3,0-8+U29-+7./+, :;=/3+81./8532,-412;.8/27SA23:-06/:S /80-412=18,0-8/+,23,3832/58/+,30'.8/27SA2-+732:19- +3:03197/+7./ /830-80/.412;23,6:323,3+81./83:;2</2=303+( a/29/+/9<-:s1+3219; ,-./012:i:039:19:./8,/ / /83<3: S3++194A2-+7/50-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.M9;9/ ;4239-+,-./ ,=AI3231??8A: ,3+0I?3+,/0/:19</:3232:37?; +3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91, /:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..(V3032,3++301, , ;20/2<3-,230032: M/80:;,30; /80]+3,3+42/T 17T1??]-+,-./012:I: :3:/993+= ,300317,3+]153+42/T 17T+3,]-+,-./01291,3883+: /801532( C(C Q??<I77-+7/53081./80-+,-./012:I: /0-8?/:+-+7 O0=5320-+,-./012:I: ?; /192;,32(R+I = /192;,35-8,305U ,-./01232(O , :0f:19.8-9/? f5-87S32+3=/ ,343883::300/5039/192;,32(V3/ ,-./ , U23+1.:;412:.S388-73M/5=3+7-7/5, :/993+=3+73+,3032:+/..19(X-<26.32<3723?30"-$)',"-)-412;6002I..3 : :039/192;,32Jct883217H36?380"\\[L(Q /+70-8;,-:.60323,330-:.3:-, <26.3+/5-+,-./012Jb1::38"\\ZL(V30S3+32 : /?? ::3532,-32M-+0323::32M ;8M17=S38?321:: 0-8;5U23:I:039/0-: :-: ;2"-$)',)-$' ?83.:08/+,:./?/5 5/2-/<8317?103+: ,-./01232(Q :./ :19C$'5)<) :3,3817-:.3412<-+,38:3:8-+S ,+3,3<3723?32f:19 <U23.2/ /? f17, ,-./0123+3(N12/0 -+,-./0123+3:./85U : ,+30:/993+=3+79;,305U23 93:0968-7, < , ,+3,3<3723?30-+,-./ /2 607/+7:? , ,-./0123+3JaAI3217E/88)%%)L( c3,&<$(.="<$,$&&]&<$(.,$<=.#'$'217<"&.<)*,$<,.&*:19, ,+3,3 :/993+= ,30:+/..19;-,3+0-4-: : :195-:32 412=18, , ,+3,3:/993+= ; ,-./01232( V30-++3<U232;-,3+0-4-:323, :193.:?8-: I <3723?:19 ].8-9/0-8:0/+,]M]60:8-??:23,6.:S1+32]M].8-9/0-8?/:+-+7]17]81./89-8SA? ]( X;20607/+7:?6+.0-/05-:./84;4239,3+81./83:;2</2= =18,0-8<;,3.8-9/3+, /? (V3#)',-.<)*#=%-#(7<)')5-,/:./8:A.3;4; <38I:032,3293,:194A8732' a512,/+?; /3+,2-+732,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e a512,/+?; /? ,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e

67 a512,/+./+81./8:/ ,6:323,3+81./83:;2</2=303+e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igur 15 Sammenhenger mellom klima og samfunn som grunnlag for utforming av en lokal klimatilpassings indikatormodell c3,'.,4-<$2:;2</2= =512,/++/ ?21:3::32<8-2?;5-2.30/530 3+, /(a32: S I:-:.17<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(O.:39?38?;,304A2:03323+, :/52/:M93+:3.:39?38?;,30/+,2332=AI+-+7/ :3+f-< A:0/53+, /( V ;0/93,:37/0605/87/5, ,-./ / :;2</2=30+A,53+,-75-:9;<8-:0I20/54123: =/ ,3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2=303+17:/993+= / :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30(X-0/293,/+,2312,-..393,-+,-./ / I:-:.317<-1817-:.3?21:3::32(N/23+=3232:385:/70/ =/2 1532: / /+03;2:/.T :412=18, / :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30( c3,#.(+4''#%&"'"($#&:;2</2= a.1+19-:.317/+,23 :/946++:93::-73.1+:3.53+:32M ;2:/.305$-)&,)/5.8-9/3+,2-+732J412 3.:39?38/ ,6: :02A /5062-:032L ;2:/.30*/ I:-: <-1817-:.33+,2-+732M:19-7S A:0/5.8-9/3+,2-+732( 67

68 X-,323=/25-,3+:/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2= =18, /? M412 3.:39?38=5-:+U2-+7: /804;2?21< ,;1??2300=18,38A++:19=30?;726++/5.8-9// ( V3+:-:03./ ,-./01232:199;023..3:-++412;<3:.2-53,3+81./83 :;2</2=303+M7S38,32$'#,$,4#>"')<<)412=18,(*, :/ ::/983,3./?/: S :0-06:S /.;412=18,3: /?21<839/0-..3+',305-8:-0-80/.412;23,6:323, :.3:./?03.8-9/?; "20-80/.412 ;0-8?/::3:/ /3+,2-+732( V3:/993+= ?2A532;4;42397S ,-./01291, : :5U20.19?83.:317<3= ,:0126:-..32=30M4A2: :0412,-5- A+:.32;4;42/9<"&.<)5/2-/:S1+32(X-,32332,303+/9<-:S1+19/0,3:/ /83-+,-./ :;:./8.6++3=/3+81./8?18-0-:.23835/+:'/0-+,-./ ?2-+:-??30./+7--++:? /87/5:02/ /.81./80(V /0-50<3:.S3,3+0?21:S3.032,30= ; ,30/8S32330: ,-./012:I:039M= ?2A53, ;/5.8/23,3+?2/.0-: /+:3+( X; <3723+:3,3/9<-:S1+:+-5;<8-2,32412;/+0I,33+91,38817 <3: ''<"2$&&)'-3+: ,-./01291,388(*,305-,323=/25-f:; 8/ f412:A.0; : ,-./ , ,-./012039/3+3-,3+0-4-: (c3+4A2:05-85-< / <302/ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30M412,-, A..38<3723?-,3+5-, : /5-+,-./012:I:03930( b3723?30#.(+4''#%&"'"($=/2=-:012-:.5u20+u20.+i /517 <26.3+/5+I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32Jc-:=/+"\s)L )\ (V30;7SA23 :/946++:A.1+19-:.3562, =/2, U20,30:/993:19; 7S3++194A233++I003T.1:0/+,:/+/8I:3JV3,3./9"\[sL(O0.S I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32=/25U20;-+.86,323532,:300-+7/571, /2.3,30M,32,30;532,:3003<26./ ,32=/25U20=380:3+02/80 Jc/00:1+"\s)L(F-8412:.S38842/-+,-5-, ,32./ , ,:: ?32:1+32:<3=15?;3+:8-.9;03/0,32:19h+?32:1+1??+;2 <3=15:0-8423,::0-8838:3/571,30M23,6: ,3003/+,23?32:1+32:968-7=30412,30:/993Ja1803"\ssL(c-8SA71,32: A20+/ :39?832?; ,32(V30;7S3++194A23+I003T.1:0+/,:/+/8I:32M17,3293,7SA23 :/946++:A.1+19-:.3/+/8I:32M=/2,32412=-:012-:.17:;5U20+U20.+I ,3+ 9-8SA?18-0-:.3,3</003+JaAI32"\s\L(R1+02/:03+0-8:/946++:A.1+19-:.3 562, <3,2-40:T388329/2.3,:A.1+19-:.3562, M:19,/ :/00 ;5U239-+,23194/003+,3-<30I,+-+73+/0]4U223?1:032]0/8843:03:170/:93,- 562, Jc/00:1+"\s)L( c3,:/946++:a.1+19-:.:;2</2= /0-53f17-?2-+:-??3017:;?1:-0-53f ?;a.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30:19, , a8732/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(x c-)5412:0;38:3/5=5/:19194/003:/5 A.1+19-:./ M ,3232-?2-+:-??30/885-2.:19=30-:/ :19 194/ , <26./5.+/??323::62:32( 29 I nyere tid kan det virke som om begrepet samfunnsøkonomi har fått en langt videre betydning, og at begrepet blir brukt synonymt med begrep som økonomi eller sosialøkonomi (jf betegnelser som Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi og den utstrakte bruken av samfunnsøkonomi som betegnelse på studietilbud ved universiteter og høyskoler). 68

69 V34-+-:S /+7:? ; /+03-+,-./01232( c3+93,3+:;?/::5-,,34-+-:s1+/5=5/:194/ ,32< :3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30M32,30:385:/705/+:.38-7; A993+,38-: A.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30, :03197/+7./+/583, ,-./01232(X-5-8,324120/607/+7:?6+.0-1??4/ =5-8.30I?32 A.1+19-:.5-2.:19=30:19-607/+7:? :060:/00412;<8-<32A20/5.8-9/3+,2-+732,-23.03M ,-23.03:194A873/53+, ,304I:-: <-1817-:.39-8SA30(X-0/2607/+7:? =153,./ /5A.1+19-:. 5-2.:19=30'+U2-+7:5-2.:19= /: ( V3032:385:/709/+73?21< ,3+91,388,325-+U2:/70/?2-12-0/2 607/+7:?6+.0-=5-8.30I?325-2.:19=3032:1932:;2</23(B;2,307S38,32,3+ :/946++:A.1+19-:.3:;2</2= =18,0-8&<$(.)'5-$'2)-32,30:385:/70?21< ,9/+783+,3.6++:./?19;2:/.T :412=18,d:U28-77S38,32,3003:69T17:/9:? /5.8-9/3+, =18,0-8+/ <-1817-:.3?21:3::3217=512,/+,3003-7S3+./+?;5-2.3:/ A52-7(V30:I+3: ;/+0//0,3032,3+/06223::62:</:3203+U :194A2: : <8-2/9930( Q7:;+;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8&<$(.="<$,$&&32,303+:0126:-..32=30(* 607/+7:? /+03+.3:37/0:;2</2=303+32/5=3+7-7/5=512./2< :-55-2.:19=303+32':012360:8-??< =AI:;2</2=30JQpb :012360:8-??./+=/A.1+19-:.2I772/,0-8;7S3++194A230-80/.M17./+,3293, 5U239-+,23:;2</ ,235-2.:19=303293,:5/.323A.1+19-:.35+3f :38519,-::3=/2238/ ,2360:8-??(O0/8032+/ :14-: :0+/,: J.21+32? ,6.:S /7/::60:8-??L(O+ :;2</2=30:562, :-32/09/+:+628-:03+]?;=1,30]'5-2.:19= , 8/53:0.1:0+/,: ,393:0:;2</23(FI?-:.35-2.:19= ,/5U23 18S3T177/::5-2.:19=30M?3021.S39-:.-+,6: /4-..(V ,8320-, a32./+9/+03+.3: :.3607/+7:?6+.0':;2</2=30-412=18,0-8#.''#6'<$2.8-9/? m38832:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8(4<$2.8-9/? (*,304a2: ;9/+562,323,302;,3+,3.8-9/?18-0-: /:S1+/ /:S1+/8017,3+:/993+: J] ,,38?/..3]L9/ <8-7S38,3+,3-1532: ,M93+:9/+-,30/+, / :_3+/2-30/+.37/+7f4123.:39? ;?;.8-9// ,3( Y-00/05-,/.1+: ::19:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8;-++4A23/ ?; 60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32M./+5-7SA :.2/ /3+562,32-+7/5 :/983060:8-???325-2.:19=30: =18, :19=303+:A.1+19-:.3 <U ;<30/83/ J/8032+/0-50L7S3++194A230-80/.412;23,6:323 69

70 9-8SA237+:./?30:19,38/5+/:S1+/8237+:./?30 &% (a32=/29/+<26.0 <26001?21,6.0J,5:(19: :5/23-++:/0:L:199;8?;A.1+19-:. <U &" (a5-:5-:;.1<832< /560:8-??17a.1+19-:.<u ; ,3.::195-:32A.1+19-:.=/+,8-+7:219?323+=3060:8-??(X-2.:19= ,:012360:8-?? A.1+19-:.<U ,3293,4;3+8/5-+,3.:M93+: <3, ,:9;60:8-??17:012A.1+19-:.<U ;3+=AI-+,3.:( B;2,307S38,32$'+-.#,-4&,4-5-8,3017:;=325U : :;2</2=30-412=18, /3+, /? M1717:;=3232,30 :?/2:19093,562, :;2</2=30( */2<3-,3093,B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+412)%%ZT)%"#32,307S :06, /5.8-9/3+, ,-.'#="-,#)&,"-)'JNS38,948)%%)L(a3232,30 7S120562, ,=3+:I =18,:19412:-+.38:3M621-=/5+32M0;.3M-:-+7M :+A4/88M48191:5(X62, S /+:?120?;53-MS32+</+3M:SA (E+, / /: ,3++3:/993+= ,3:: ,+-+7:+300J8640M./<38L172A2:I:03932J/58A?M5/++412:I+-+7L( B;2,307S38,32:;2</2=30-412=18, /? ;,30-+42/: /+5-< /5,3+:/ U :19412+U2-+7:5-2.:19=30(c3+ +;2,307S38,3202/+:?120: ?13+730=32; :39? :37/03+23: ?/ :? /512-: /+:? =18,0-8?2-5/0<-8(B;2,307S38,32?2-:./+9/+03+.3:373+,-23.03:/993+= :8-??17.1:0+/,'S1=AI32360:8-???32604A20 02/+:?120/2<3-,S1:0A223?103+:-388A.+-+7-< :0+/,3+3( *607/+7:? ,305U23:8-./0,3+4I:-:.3-+42/: :37:385J53-3+3M =/5+3+3M83, :5L5-85U2393:0:;2</ /3+,2-+732M93+: C-4&)'/5-+42/: U23:;2</ <;,3.8-9/3+, /? (b;,3A.0=I??-7=30/5: =AI323DQ ) T/ ?;5-2.3?32:1+<-802/+:?1203+( 30 Se 31 Alternativt kunne man brukt driftsresultat som mål. Driftsresultat er bruttoproduktet pluss subsidier med fratrekk for kapitalslit, lønnskostnader og direkte skatter. Dermed får man justert i forholdet mellom kapital- og arbeidsintensive næringer, og kommer nærmere en tallfesting av frie midler til disposisjon i virksomhetene. 70

71 7L /N?;;4EC2;C2A>4;>1?5?=;<=>2541?1 #(" B/ I:-:.:;2</2=30 B/0628-7:;2</2=30M:19.1+:3.53+:/54I:-:.3?21:3::32M.+I0032:370-8,381./83 +/062412=18,:1901?172/4-M< M53730/:S1+M=I,21817-:.3:U2023..M S12,:91++30_(*9A0393,3+<3: /0-8:0/+,5-8,3+/ =18, / A:34I:-:.3?21:3::32:19-7S <-,2/0-8 :/946++:93::-7:;2</2=30M<8(/(/5=3+7-7/581./8-: /5<3<I7738:317 / /: J M38T412:I+-+730_(L-192;,30(V300332?21:3::329/ /+=/4688:03+,-71532: M93,=3+:I+0-8:/++:I+8-7=30M-+03+:-030M : / =3+,38:32M93+,305-85U23:3+02/80;./ ,3412=18,:19324/2-+7:93:: :03,353,,3++30I?3=3+,38:32( V303217:;=3+:-.0:93::-7;<3723+:3+/0628-7:;2</2=30-412=18,0-8= I:-:.3?21:3::329/+=/ ;2:/.3:/946++:93::-7 :;2</2=30(V393:0:3+02/834I:-:.3?21:3::3+3<8-2,/' 4819 :0129$: :.23,J :.23,M:03-+T174S388:.23,17:+A:.23,L 321:S1+ B;2,307S38, I?32:.23,174819M:;41237;2,30-,/7./ /5 60:/003192;,32(E883,-::3./ :?21:3::3+30/2:-.03?;;60/2<3-,3./201532: ,/0/9/032-/830-8<26.-<8(/(81./8/23/8?8/ <I773:/.:<3=/+,-+7412?;,3+9;03+;23,6:323:/946++:93::-73:;2</2=30( R/ /560:/003192;,3232, ,38-7?21:3::(*9A0393, 3+, /:-06/:S / :19-,/7324/2-+7:93:: :/ ,3++30I?34I:-:.3?21:3::32M ?23:3+0323:;2</23192;,32( *+03+:+3,<A2-+I3192;, ?860:38-73: A? ;2:/.3.2/ :S1+17:0129/ :./,3?;.1200-,(g : ,/ :;.6++32/ S3+03: ;,32( V3++3],-446:3]6:-..32=303+7SA2,30+A,53+,-7;, : , I:-:.3?21:3::3+393,=3+:I /5-+,-./ / :;2</2= /T17T+3,T?32:?3.0-5M,5:(;.6++3: A873+,3 :/993+=3+7?; ,+30+-5;' V/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3 z BI00.8-9/?;,2-5 w BI002-:-.1<-8,3 Figur 16:*A-4''<)22)'5)*("5)<<*+"-*.'.<6#)*./*<"&.<*#7-C.-B),*$*),*)'5-),*&<$(.** P-:-.1412?21:3::32:194819?;3853:830032M68-.30I?32:.23,17321:S1+.+I003: : /83412=18,:193.:-:0323+,338538A?M S388: M 01?172/4-MS12,:91++30_(*9A0393,3+, /?;,2-532,30-:01272/,,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3:19,/ / ,32-+7/5+I002-:-.1<-8,3M:-,3+, /+, /83+/062412=18,(V/73+:2-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-8?21:3::32:19/ :0129./+, ,2372/,+I003:0-8;/+/8I:323 71

72 +I32-:-.1<-8, , /M:-,3+81./8-: /5=3+,38:3+34A2:0/5/80.+I003:0-8=5123.: /0-:.3=3+,38:32:193.:0329+3,<A2173.: ,.19932(H1./8-:32-+7J./ L/5?103+:-380:;2</23192;, :-:0323+,3237-: /54/.0-:.3=3+,38:32 &) 325/+:.38-7M179/+=/2,3293,-..3:/ =30412;7SA23.1< ,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,317 +I00.8-9/?;,2-5412;562,323+I002-:-.1<-8,3?; ,+/+-5;(Y /+ 9/+,3293,:-/0-9A0393,30+I00.8-9/?;,2-55-8,3++3:-: I?34I:-:.3?21:3::32-:0A22372/,.6++31??:0;-192;,32:194A2-..3=/25U20562,320:19 2-:-.1192;,32M93+:41237;3+,3?21:3::324239,383:-:01272/,5-85U23.+I S3+032-:-.181./ J : :./+3+,23:L( c3,3+932:i:039/0-:.7s3++197/+7/5,305--,/753019,3+3.:-:0323+,3 :;2</2=303+d;2:/.T :412=18, /?;, M:/90.6++:./? /85/2-/:S ,34-23./ /54I:-:.:;2</2=30M , / : / ,-./ ,+30 +3,:./832-+7/5+/0628-7:;2</2=30</:320?;P37D8-9(X-5-817:;,-: , /8360,I?+-+732/5,3++/ :;2</2=303+.+I I:-:.3?21:3::32( Flom Y2150:300./+9/+/80:;: I?324819' E</)#<),,)+<"('4819?;3853:830032:194A873/5: ,32+3,<A2175/++ J1403:194A873/5:+A: L-385/:+3,<A2:4380M =18, =-+, /:8A?( I&4,,*+<"('4819?; :194A873/5-+03+:+3,<A2J350(-.19<-+/:S1+ 93,:+A: L-3+<3723+:30?32-1,317-30<3723+:30192;,3M17,32 5/ <8-2/<:12<320-</..3+J./+17:;./883:]+3,<A2:4819]L( O853: :377S32+3:/.03179/+./ :3= ;,32 :195-8<8-2/ /, /+7:385/(V , =30412; -532.: /83<323,:./?:0-80/.f:19</22-./,32-+7M23-:-+7/5:-.2-+7: (35/ M93+17:; /55/++4A2-+753,=S38?/5, ( N ??:0;2-,3:/ ,3M:01235/::,2/73+3M17,/:?3:-380?; g:08/+,30m-f2a+,38/717-n-++9/2.jf1532a,"\\\l(o853+3=/28-034/88m93+ :0125/++4A2-+7( E ??:0;2: <2/003M9/::34A23+,35/::,2/7:199/+ =153,:/ ,234S12,:02A.?;X3:08/+,30M-B12,TB1273M:/90- :-,35/::,2/7?;g:08/+,30JF1532A,"\\\L(BI338538A?./+1??:0;:194A873/ I00-+7/59/::317< /53.:-:0323+,338538A?J/ /+ 17:;7; :.23,M53,/05/++9/::3+34A23293,:373.: ,32 :./,34819./+1?? /0-50:0123:./,32:194A873/53+,230+3,<A2:9A+:032M :0412,-9/+-..3=/2324/ ,=512,/+=;+, :-06/:S1+32( 32 Dagens risikobilde har man oversikt over gjennom lokale observasjoner, men også for eksempel gjennom tall for forsikringsutbetalinger til skade av storm, flom etc. i ulike områder. 72

73 V3003:.S3,,3:-:0-c-,0TB1273-/676:0)%%&M,/.2/40-7+3,<A2412;2:/ :197S12,3:012:./,3?;<18-732M-+42/: M-++9/2.17:.17( /7-+<"(]*#"(()-+<"(]*B%#,+<"(*"2*/$',)-+<"(: :194A873/5+3,<A2J- 4129/ :+AL17039?32/062412=18,-=383+3,<A2:438030:193853: ,38/5J/80:;309I3:0A223192;,33++: ;,3017 ] ]L(O853: /+/80:;1??:0;8/+7042/,32+3,<A23+=/24/80M 93+:/ ??:0;2-:0A22372/,-69-,,38</2+U2=300-8=512, :3 +3,<A23+4/8832(B1273:5/::,2/7:T :-030:53:3+JBXOL: :1+3./ :?2172/9 &C./ , ,+3,34/ : A+: ;,32:19=/2< ,320:19 2-:-.1192;,32(O ,32-+7:190-8://0198/7&#%%.9385-B1273 5/2:U28-760:/ :./,32M:0/2030BXO-"\\[93,4819:1+3./ ,32 :0A2238:3+?;:./,3?103+:-/ ;,3+3? ?21:S3.030(P$24-*8\ 5-:32= ;,32:19326+,32./ ;( Figur 17: Elvestrekk klassifisert som flomutsatte (strekninger for flomsonekartlegging) 35 Q92;,3+3=/2< ? A873+,3.8/::-4-:32-+7::I:039JBXO)%%&L' 33 &C BXO:4819:1+3./20?21:S3.0' ^^^(+53(+1$91,683:$91,683{"%\$?6<8-:=32{5-3^{?21,6_0(/:?e-O+0-0I*,wCZs[r-c3+6*,w)[) r:02b1kd1812w\\ddnnr:02qeaw BXO v&d<v&ox/++v&dv)n<v&o N8195/2:38 N819:1+ 3./20?21:S &strBoxColor=99CCFF&strYAH=%3ENVE%3E%3Cb%3EVann%3C%2Fb%3E%3EFlomva rsel%3eflomsonekartprosjektet%3eplanlagte+strekninger 73

74 ]R8/::3"32,3+726??3:19-++3=18,32,30:0A2:03:./,3?103+:-/817<3= :1+3./20 :I+3: 1??8/70( R8/::3 ) 194/0032 : : =18, ,23:./,3?103+:-/8M93+<3= /20/+:3: /200-8:03,3(R8/::3&./+<3037+3::193+i ??3iM,32: =/2308/5323:./,3?103+:-/8 17, =/: I3 ; 4; 0300:03, ,3 483: ?8/::320-.8/::3"17)M93+,30/57SA23+,332=512:0120,30/+0/003 :./,3?103+:-/83032(V32, :?23,0<3<I7738:317,I2./9/2.:193260:/00M =/2?21:S ,3 483: <8-00?8/:: /::3 &M :;= :, /.+;2,30:/98303:./,3?103+:-/83032:0120(] c/+0/2:-.03?;;./ :023../5"(17)(? j1??910"s#%.9385l -++3+)%%sM1723?23: ;,32:19<32A232"Z[ (E2<3-,30 7S3++194A23:-:/9/2<3-,93,,3<32A (V30<8-260/2<3-, : ,7S3+0/.:-+0325/88"%M)%M#%M"%%M)%%17#%%;2( N819:1+3./20/:?3:-4-:3232, /23+?32;2:0-,(* *412=18,0-8<26./53.:-:0323+,3,/0/9/032-/83: /7412 :;2</2=30:562, ,-./01291,3883+M :.?6+.0/03.:-:0323+,3./ ::I:03932=153,:/.38-74/+7321??:;2</2=30:562, I ].S3+03]481960:/ (V :I:039/0-:.6:-..32=3093,=3+:I+0-8/0 ]+I3] < :;./+< :/ , /(V305-8, U23+A,53+,-717:;93,81./83:;2</2=30:562, I :-:0323+,3 3853T$<3..38A?601532,30BXO=/2968-7=30412;127/+-:323177S3++194A23( V :-,/ /:08/ , ,32-+7/52-: / JaAI,/8948"\\\L(E</)/$+,)-< ?3.0:1993:060:/ ;,32JaAI,/8)%%&dF1532A,"\\\L(R <A2:385:A.3;./ ?103+:-38834/23192;,3293,=3+:I+0-8/ :1917:; ;2:/.3 :/946++:93::-7:./,3(V30037S38, <;, BXO:?2172/9:-,3+, / : ( R8-9/?/2/ , ?;4/ I0032:37:19:/ ,<A2M93+17:;039?32/062(F39?32/062=/2: ?;/ ,-,3+:0I232412, :+A17237+(g ?32/062=A: A.0/ M17,3293,A.32-: ( X/ S12,A.3217:;?103+:-/ d93, =A: :19932:;A :39?384/23+412=A:04819(X;2: :+A < ,3+A ;2$: ,<A :032.34/ ,3++3?32-1,3+(c-8, M93,9-+,231??9/7/: /55/++J:+ALM5-8, ,6:3234/ ;24819(B;2,307S38,32/ M32, : :3+/53.:0239+3,<A2932:3+02/80M6/5=3+7-7/5;2:0-,( :012:./,3-192;,32,302/9932(*412<-+,38:393,.2/40-738/502I.../+ 5/++:0/+,:A <8-:012J: L(H/+7:,3832/5+12:.3.I:03+./+ A <8-1532"93032(B;2308/502I..?/:: : ,3+412;2:/.32 =/03+,3+:0-8;412?8/+03:378/+7:.I:03+(@;83,3:./+9/+1?? "\\)5-:320I,38-7:./,3?103+:-/830-:032.3:012932JF3-78/+,)%%)L(Y3172/4-: ?172/4-:.3412=18,81./80M-412=18, =32:.3+,35-+,

75 8/502I..$=AI02I..:9A+:023-B12:.3=/530M3260:8/7:7-53+,3412=5125-,0192;,32 "(-75)-(V :323432/+:35-+,=/:0-7=303+3 &Z M ;,/ /7412< /581./835-+,8/:032?;<I /+,23.1+:026.:S1+32M 7-2:/9830: I../5=5/:1932,393:060:/ ,/7M93+, /7412;:-+1319= ;,32:195-8<8-2/ , /0-8:0/+,(N12192;,30:0129$: ,30,3293, ;: / ,-./ /T17T+3,?32:? ,3/57SA23+,3.8-9/?/2/ ' &s -L3+, :/53.: ,M17 --L3+, : : ,( K;81./80+-5;5-8,30, U239/+734/.01232:19./+6+,32:A.3:412 +U29323;.6++3/+:8;60:/00=30412:0129$: ' Q$5)/.''#+"-#&>)<<)--192;,30J4123.:39?38-=/5+32LM</:320?;81./ : ]0-,35/++:0/<3883+]( &[ L)'25)*&6#,<$'>)d: SA2:0A2:0026::38-9A =/5178/+,( &\ Q)--)'2-4B),d562,32-+7/581./801?172/4-93,=3+<8-..?;19,3+412: ,6: ,:0I2.3(aAI26=30:72/,23,6: ,=/:0-7=303+( C% Skred N/ :.23,<3723+:3:+/ ,3192;,32-8/+,3093,:0123 9/ ;,32f,5:(F2A+,38/717,30:3+02/83g:08/+,:192;,30(Q98/7[%?21:3+0/ B1273/+0/:;4-++3:=32(F14/.01232M350(-.19<-+/:S1+M =/2:0A2: ?;2-: :.23,'93++3: ?17 +3,<A2(R :.23,/5:0A223194/+71??:0;2:S38,3+0M93+,30?103+:-3883 :./,3194/+73032:0120(R ;, </23S12,<26.:192;,32 17,3293,17:;<3<I7,M:/90-,-7:19,3032<3<I7738:317/+,234I:-: ? J-+42/: _(L: A:3+,34/ ,3++30I?3:.23,(R :-=153,:/.6+,329/ : ;,3293,:/ ,3 5/::,2/7JF1532A,"\\\L( B1273: :.36+,32:A.38:3JBY`L41230/ / </:320?;.5/20U :../ ' :.<34/2-+7M-++=3+0-+7/5 &Z P3432/+:3532,-3+1??7-27S3++19: ,=/:0-7=30J9$:L-8A?30/53+?32-1,3?; M 93,7S3+0/.:-+0325/88?;#%;2M179;80"% </..3+-,30:0/+,/2,3+./8832 ]48I?8/:: ]J:012;?3+48/03L( &s V/73+:144-: /:_3+/2-10/2-..3=AI,34123+,2-+7-,34239=32:.3+,35-+, J: :/58/502I..$=AI02I..:9A+:03230-B12:.3=/530L(V3032,3293,-..3/.06380; ,-::34/ ( 38 Tidevannstabellen gir høyder og tilhørende tidspunkt for alle høy- og lavvann i 15 standardhavner og 201 sekundærhavner og trykkes for ett år om gangen. Se Statens kartverk Sjøkartverket: Varsling av tidevannsforholdene for 23 havner presenteres også av DNMI: 39 Arealstatistikk gir data for både lengde kystlinje og areal ved ulike høyder over havet, per kommune. Se Article.publicShow;ID= Metode for vurdering av terrengruhetsgrad finnes i Norsk Sandards Vind- og snølaststandard. 75

76 324/2-+7:9/032-/8342/81./8.S3+03:/90<12-+7/5,393:0/ ;,3+3J:19 604A23:/5BY*L(F10/80#)2/?? M17,3..32/883, : ;,3+3JS42(P$24-*8`6+,32L(R/203+3: ,30/8S3203 :1+3562, /+8/:03:+3,42/* C" ( 8.92&:*?''5)<$'2*$*,-)*&<.##)-*+.-)2-.5*U,.,)'#*&.-,/)-&*:aaXV* 6LD2AY6+:0-7301?172/4-:.3412=18,(Y26++6+,32:A.38:325-:32/ =18,3+332/.:3?0/<83( V / :S1+-5/::,2/730(V30=/25U :.23,/ ;,30(* ?M ?=/2=/0076+: ?;:0/< J4/2372/,:_123%T"sL( RLE=<<?DFc-+,2376+:0-701?172/4-:.3412=18,(c/ ,32:A.38:32M ,32:A.38:3+35-:329-+,2376+: =18,(V3032/ :S1+-5/::,2/730(V30 =/25U20<30I,38-7:.23,/ ;,30(O ?=/ :0/<-8-030: , J4/2372/,:_123"[T)#L( :LITQ`76+:0-7301?172/4-:.3412=18,(c/ ,32:A.38: ,32:A.38:3+35-:32676+: =18,(V3032<30I,38-7/ :S1+-5/::,2/730( V30=/25U20:012:.23,/ ;,30(F ?93,:0/<-8-030: , ,/:?3:-3803.:0239+3,<A2(O.:0239+3,<A2./+412;2:/.3/ :; <3..32:190-, =/25U20:;2</ M17:19,3293,./+ 7SA ;,326:0/<-8353,/05/++9/::3+3412;2:/ /5-+7/5 9/::3J321:S1+L( Figur 18: Oversikt over kartlagte kvikkleireområder 42 C" Q92;,32./208/ :.23,4/23'=00?'$$^^^( (+1$^3<:-03$.5-..$5-3^32(=09 42 Statens kartverk/arealis 76

77 @03-+T174S388:.23,1??0232:191403:0-<3723+:3,3192;,32M93+:./,3194/+730M <;,39/ :.38-7./ U23:0120M/5=3+7-7/5-= ;,32,301??:0;2(V3++30I?3:.23,2/ : M93+17:; C& ( `+,32/8834S388: :1932<2/ C%TC#72/,32608A:3:,309-+,23 < / :03-+:?2/+7d:03-+<81..32:198A:+3242/4/:04S38817<I77321?? : <2/003:.2;+-+732J2/:5-4032L(* /+17:;:01234S388?/20-8A: ;2:/.3:012:./,3(B3,<A217039?32/ /4/.01232:19?; :-.1:.23,/5,3++30I?3+(@?3: :+3,<A217421:0:? /++4I8,3:? /+412;2:/.3321:S1+-4S388:-, A:3.2/40-73:.23,M17 :3-+=A:0170-,8-75;232,3293,,3+93:05/ ,3+412,3++30I?3+:.23,( O+, :0239+3,<A2J93,=3+:I : :L17/+0/88 421:0$0-+3T?32-1,32-8A?30/ <8-2,3293, /?/2/930323; ;2:/.32;28-735/ /560:/003192;,3217: /59/ (b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sC?32:1+32( CC Q92;,32./208/70412:.23,4/23'=00?'$$^^^( (+1$^3<:-03$2/:$5-3^32(=09 77

78 Figur 19: Kartlagt skredfare på landsbasis 45 Erosjon >2:/.::/993+= /17S12,321:S ?8-:320M93+,/73+:.8-9/:_3+/2-32/+0I,32?103:-/ <30I, :S1+:A.+-+7JBHa)%%&L(V ;2-,/73+,38412:.+-+7?;438030M<8/+0/++3053,W12,412:.17 H/+,<26.:=A7:.183+?;>:(BI412:.+-+7/+0I,3217:;:/993+=3+732:19 0-, =/2< /70( O21:S1+?;5-2.3:/ ,3+/062412=18,81./80M:19S12,:91++M= ,353730/:S1+(P-: :S1+412:032.3: ,6:323: 53,68-.0?8/+03,3..3-,3.2-0-:.3?32-1,3+3M:194A2: :032=A: /0-:.3412=18,(R8-9/3+, ,-::3?32-1,3+35-8,3293,5U23 93:0.2-0-:.3412-= /,S12,321:S1+2/9932,I2./9/2.(W12,321:S1+-,I2./192;,32?;5-2.3: /5,2-40: S12,<26.30(N123.:39?38 5-8</..3?8/+32-+7M72A40-+7M0I?3S12,<3/2<3-,-+717S12,?/..-+7:194A873/ /:.-+32: ?; /+730/5321:S1+( S12,:91++-,I2.</29/2.M<8(/(412; ,3232-:-.1412/ :S1+(c/+=/217:;60/2<3-,30321:S1+:2-:-.1./20f])-"#>"'#-$#$&"*/)5* B%#,=<%6$'2]f:19<I7732?;S12,T ,/0/.19< ,.8-9/,/0/M17 45 Statens kartverk/arealis 78

79 :195-:32< S12,0/?-.7$,//53,=A:0?8AI-+7 CZ (V-::3< ,/ / , :S1+:2-:-.1.8/::32M42/]:5U20:012]0-8 ]8-03+]2-:-.1(N12=532./208/ ,308/ : /+,38/23/ =532321:S1+:2-:-.1.8/::3(N B/++3:0/,-E.32:=6:7-2, :39?385-:4A873+,3412,38-+7JS42Q.C)<<*[L' Tabell 6: Eksempel på andel dyrka mark etter erosjonsrisikoklasser på kommunenivå (Nannestad kommune) B/++3:0/, V3./2 E+,38/5010/8 H :S1+:2-:-.1 Z#\Z "&v c-,,38:321:s1+:2-:-.1 "##C[ "s&[\ ")%## )&v Cs P$24-* :a*6+,325-:323.:39?38?;=512,/+321:s1+:4/23+?23:3+0323:-./204129( Figur 20: Eksempel på kartblad over kartlagt erosjonsfare ved høstpløying K8/+03,3..317S12,/2<3-,-+7:?2/.:-: =/85;230=/2:19/88323,3?;?3.0:012 <30I, / :S1+(b/29/2.M:194A873/5=A:0?8AI-+7M :/ :S1+3++:06<<:19<8-2:0;3+,30-85;23+(aA:0?8AI-+7=/25U205/ ;,32:19?21,6: S353.:032(R S353.:032607S12,3- )%%"&)M)v/5,I2./9/2.-B1273J198/7&M&9-88,3./2LJbI330(/8)%%)L( E+,383+=A:0?8AI ,3++30I?3S12,<26.<8323,6:32042/["MZv-"\[\0-8 CZ Cs =00?'$$^^^(+-S1:(+1$N/.0/83532/+:3$S12,:91++$:0/0-:0-..$321:S1+(=09 79

80 S12,/2<3-,-+7:?2/.:-:412,I2./9/2.+I $18S353.:032M7S3++19 H/+,:<26.:6+,32:A.-+7/M17:.-8832,/ A873+,3?2/.:-:32'"L=A:0?8AI-+7M )L=A:0=/25-+7M&L/88S12,/2<3-,-+7195;23+J/23/8-:06<< LMCL,-23.03:;,,/23/817#L=A:0:;,,.12+/23/8(V /87:6+,32:A.38:3M17 0/ :-607/+7:? ?; ;( C[ K8/+0-+7/5=A:0=5303J]=A:0:;,,.12+/23/8]L<83?;"\\%T0/88308/+:320:190-80/. 412;23,6:323321:S1+-8A?30/5=A: M53,/0, A+0?8/+03,3..3/88323,34A J ;: :0A223/5./:0+-+7 =A:0= /.0-:../+%&)S12,/ A?30/ M :/ ,=A:0?8AI,9/2.JgI7/2,3+)%%&L(V3293,32-..3,3++30I?3 S12,/2<3-,-+73+0I,-793,=3+:I+0-82-:-.1412S12,321:S1+( O21:S1+:2-:-.1./20/32:5U20,30/8S320393,=3+:I+0-842/9: /572/,/5 2-:-.1(V3293,32,30-4A2:03197/+793:023835/+0;562,323/+,383+ S12,<26.:8/+,-++3+=5322-:-.1.8/::3(`01532,3./208/703192;,3+3M<8-2,30 +A,53+,-7;7SA2381./83562, </:320?; /53/59301,3+ -+,-.323-= /,81./8?2/.:-:93,=3+:I+0-8S12,/2<3-, =/85;230./+412: :S1+:2-:-.13+( W12,: :060:/ :S1+-?32-1, =A: I00?8/+03, :3242/9(*+03+:+3,<A2+;2S12,/8-7732</217</ ::3+ A.322-: :0123S12,0/?(O+, ,<A2:19:+A5-8/80:; ?; 4/23+412S12,321:S1+(c-8,5U2:?32-1, =/21403, / A532:0-S12,/< ?/.017/+, /03/ ,32:+A: A.32 C\ =A: :19=/2:0A2: ?;194/+730/5S12,/ ( R8-9/?/2/ , ?;4/ :S1+5-8,3293,5U23.+I ,<A217039?32/062M17,/:?3:-3803.: ,-32172/:.3: =A:0$5-+032$0-,8-75;2M S3++19:+-00:532,-32J/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/ : :/53.:0239+3,<A2L(* Potensiale for utvikling av ovenfra-og-ned risikobilder D*DOPQ=/2412:A.0?;; ]B1273:./20]412;5-: /81781./8 5/2-/:S1+-3+'.#>"'.<:/993+=3+7M</:320?;72/,/5:;2</2= /8703 +U2-+7:: J-,323: S12,< :93MS4(P$24-*8YL(V U29-+7:1917:;./+5U23+I : / /81781./8 5/2-/:S1+-+I002-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-84I:-:.3?21:3::32(c/+./+03+.3: ,3-+,3.:32-+7/ /T17T+3,-+,-./01232J]237-1+/83-+,-./01232]L -++3+=5320/52-:-.1192;,3+35-=/27S3++197; (Q53212,+30.1< ,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,317+I00.8-9/?;, U23+I00-7<;,3'.#>"'.<,J /5+/:S1+/830-80/ /4-:.? /50-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.L17 <"&.<,J./+.8/27SA23:-06/:S /80-412=18,0-8/+,23,3832/58/+,30d 48 Kommunetall kan gis for kommuenr med mange driftsenheter innen korn/oljevekster. Ellers kan tall hentes ut for grupper av kommuner (regioner)

81 .8/27SA2-+732:19-+3:03197/+7./ /830-80/.412;23,6:323, I:-:.3?21:3::32:194819M:0129M68-.30I?32:.23,17321:S1+:37: /8.8-9/0-:.3412=18,(*5;2:;2</2=30:91,3885-8,304A2:0/5/805U ;.+I003,393:0.2-0-:.3.8-9/?/2/ J+I00.8-9/?;,2-5L0-8= :-.1192;,3JS24(0/< ,32L( Tabell 7: Forholdet mellom fysiske prosesser og klimapådriv forslag til indikatorer NI:-:.?21:3:: N819M 3853:83003 E S388:.23, *+03+: :0239+3,<A2 N23.53+:/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 B3,<A25;2 B3,<A2 B3,<A2:19932 B3,<A2=A:0 B3,<A B3,<A2:19:+A F39?32/062 X-+, N21:0$0-+3T,/732 F39?32/062=A:0M *-+03+: : , k k k k k k k k k k k k k R k k 3:.23, O21:S1+ O21:S1+ k k k 5.2)'#*-$#$&"C$<5)17+I00.8-9/?;,2-5(V3+/:S1+/83./ :?2172/993+3 =/2-,3+0-4-:320J388320/2:-.03?;;-,3+0-4-:323L81./8:?3: =18,: /7412,/73+:2-:-.1<-8,3(V ,3412=18,:19-:37: ,23:-303+, /(A-.5)'/52-:-.15-8, ,23:93, 30+I00.8-9/?;,2-5(X38;932.3? / :?2172/993+3,3-,/7 93:0.2-0-:.3192;,3+3M17=3+,38:32./+/880-,1??:0; /208/703192;,32M <;,3-,/ , /(H-.3538/+0I,32?2172/993+3:194/ ,3 /09/032-/830./+,/ / /5+I32-:-.1<-8,32J]B1273:./20]L( V30037S38,32,/412?21:3::3+3d4819?;3853:830032M:+A:.23,M:03-+T174S388:.23,M :.23,17321:S1+(N12?21:3::3+3/ :0129<8-2,30, ;4239:3003,3.2-0-:.3.8-9/?/2/ J+I00.8-9/?;,2-5L: / ,+30-+,3.:32-+7/5:;2</2= ( Utvikling av lokale trendfremskrivingskart F39/0-:.3]B1273:./20]</:320; ,3.: ,3293, ? ,=AI2-: / :;2</2=30(V3003: : / /T17T+3,T91,3883+(*4/:301<8-2,30,3293, +A,53+,-793,81./83562, /5;2:/.T :412=18,30: N23.53+:/5 3.: , 81

82 /::-4-: M:/903+&.-,+)#,$'2/5,3+81./83:;2</2=303+( N239: /5:-06/:S /8053,=S38?/5./ :39? ,388/5,30:19/88323,3327S /-++3+,3+/:S1+/83./ :?2172/ M ?2/.0-:.23,:./?:19./+,/ / /0-8?/::30/23/8?8/ :39?38 <I773:/.:<3=/+, , (Y26++8/ /5,3++30I?3],-)'5+-)(#&-$/$'2#&.-,]5-85U2381./83562, ' T '6,,*&<$(.=75-$/f:195-8:-/09/+412:A.32;S6:0323J350(:6??8323L 3.:-:0323+,3+3,:./ /:_3+/ / :0J:19:.-::320-./?-0038&(&Ld17 T <"&.<)*&<$(.)++)&,)-f</:320?;3.:-:0323+,3./ :6??8323+,3./ /581./83+/062412=18,:19/+:8;:;5U :.3 412:;2</2= , I:-:.3?21:3::3+3( c/+5-8,/4a2:017:; = /,,3+4a2:03+3,:./832-+7//5 4/ M:.23,1:5(4/.0-: :/++:I+8-7(@/90-,-732,3032?;, ;309/ ,323#4()++)&,)'/53+, :-.1<-8,3+3412=532./ I:-:.3?21:3:::194A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732M53,/09/+:/9832 9/032-/ :./20( Figur 21: Eksempel på 10 års flomsonekart for Elverum nord 50 #% H/:030+3,42/=00?'$$^^^(+53(+1$/,9-+$*9/73E2_=-53$)%Z$?8100"%{"(S?7 82

83 O.:-:0323+,3./209/032-/ , / :?21:S : =512,/+],-)'5+-)(#&-$/$'2#&.-,)')]./+0/4129-?2/.:-:JS4(P$24-*:817P$24-* ::L(V3++30I?3./205-8:19:/ ,/ /7412].8-9/0-8?/::30] /23/8?8/ M<I773:/.:<3=/+,8-+717? <8(/412:0I2.-+7/5 <323,:./?:./?/:-0303+( Figur 22: Internettbasert kartverktøy for skredfare 51 #() B/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30 c3+:+/0628-7:;2</2=30:194a873/54i:-:.3?21:3::32-=153,:/.,23-32: :0329=3+,38:32M19=/+,832+/0628-7:;2</2=30.+I <-1817-:.3?21:3::32 <;,33.:0239=3+,38: /+7: /,5-:33+, ,(c3+ 17:;=3232, ;4;/5.8/20+;:-06/:S1+3+M:197-21::726++8/7412<3,23; : /5.8-9/3+, =18,0-8,3++/ <-1817-:.3 +;:-06/:S1+3+9I3:5/ ,32-+7/5,3+<-1817-:.3:;2</2= ,3+4I:-:.3+/ :;2</2=303+(R6++:./?3+19;2:/.T ;2,307S38, /5.8-9/3+, :;,; ;2,307S38,32,3+ <-1817-:.3:;2</2=303+( b-1817-:.:;2</2=30,23-32:3719=51260:/00a.1:i: ,2-+732:19 4A873/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(O.:39?832?;A.1:I:0393+, /+5U23' T 0/?/5/2032 T 30/<832-+7/5+I3/2032 T 3+,2-+7/560<23,38:3:9A+:032412/2032 T 3+,2-+7/5<-101?32 51 Statens kartverk/arealis 83

84 T 0/?/5<-1817-:.9/+7418, g.1:i:0393+, <8(/(3+, = ;+i003<-1817-:.3 +/06223::62:32-+U2-+7::/993+=3+7(*B ,3003:U /003S12,<26.M :.17<26.M9/2-+1??,2300M9/2-+34-: ,3832/523-:38-530(N12 S12,< , :194A873/53+,23053.:0:3: ,<A2:9A+:032M93+17:;1??<819:02-+7/5+I3:./,3,I2(N-:.3M-+.86,3209/2-+ 3+,2-+732:194A873/54123.:39?383+,2/:.17:723+:32M<-101? :0412=18,M93+17:;3+, ?32/062M17,3293,968-7= ; A :0-,(P3-: ??83533+, ,3 ]1??83538:3:.5/ ]+U /5=3+7-7/5M4123.:39?3853,/ / /+,:./?307;20/?0:194A873/57S ( Kartlegging og overvåking av biologisk mangfold V30324A2:0,3:-:03;23+330/< /003+,3+/:S1+/83./ :T ;.-+7:?2172/9:1919=/+,832,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(V3093:0:3+02/83?2172/993032]?2172/ :02-:.+/ ;.-+7] #) (K2172/9930<83 30/<8320-"\\%17</:3232:37?;9;8-+732/58640MS12,M?8/+03217,I2-:S64/: ;.-+7:192;,32M:/909;8-+732/ :+-+7:<38/: /+,:,3..3+, (O00/5039/ /5.8-9/3+, =18,0-8,30<-1817-:.3 9/+7418,30JN239:0/,948)%%&L( *)%%&<83/2<3-,3093,+/ ;.-+7:0I2.30I S /<832-+7/5 30+/:S1+/80?2172/9412./ ;.-+7/5<-1817-:.9/+7418, #& ( K2172/9930:./85/230-8)%%s(@I5,3?/ =/27;00:/ <3,23; :/912,+3/88./ ;.-+7: /+0412<-1817-:.9/+7418, 17;30/<8323+I3/ ,32.6++:./?:726++8/ ,;28-7(NA2:03,38/5?2172/9?32-1,3+5-8< / M93+:15325; : -:-:03,38/5?32-1,3+(V3003?2172/99304/5+325-,3233++?2172/ :02-:.+/ ;.-+7M : /2-+3:;538: :02-:.3 =/ :30093,+A..38-+,-./01232:19:./84/+731?? A.1:I:0393+,2-+732(*+,-./ : ;2:/.T :412=18,, /5.8-9/3+,2-+732</2332h+/53+8/ =18,JS40/< ,32L( 52 Se I tillegg fins det andre og mer avgrensede overvåkingsprogrammer, som tilstandsovervåking og resultatkontroll i jordbrukets kulturlandskap etablert i 1999 ( og langtidsovervåkningen på innvandrende laks etablert i Se 84

85 Tabell 8: Indikatorer for overvåking av det biologiske mangfoldet (Direktoratet for naturforvaltning) 54 FI?3-+,-./012 *+,-./012 K; T Q532<3-0-+7/58/5-N-++9/2. T E23/ ?: ;,32 T `00/./5605/87039/2-+3<3:0/+,32 F-8:0/+, T g.1817-:.-+42/: ?;8/+,:./?:+-5; T F-8</.37/+7/5?8/+032?;726++/5:62+3,<A2 T O+, :3T178/5:/946++?;726++/53+, / T O+, :0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 T O77:./884120I++-+7=1:,53274/8. T ` <3:0/+,3+3/ T E+, ;,32<32A20/ ? T *++723? ;,32 T *++723?-3853,380/ T B/:S1+/80? /+,:./?:192;,32 T H/+,:./?:,-532:-030-S12,<26.:8/+,:./?30 T b3:0/+,::-06/:s /8703/2032j4s388235m: ,i2m8/.:m,53277;:m ;.322-.:3M4-23:SA4678/2032L P3:?1+: T E23/ ;,32412,380?;S12,<26.: T E23/ ;,32412,380?;53730/:S1+::1+32 N12023/5-+,-./ :0-0/< ,307S1203.:?8-:-00.1< /3+, A.1:I:0393+,2-+732' T O+, :0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 T O+, :3T178/5:/946++?;726++/53+, / T b3:0/+,::-06/:s /8703/2032 Endringer i vekstsesong F)&#,#)#"'2)'#*<)'25)323+-+,-./012?;/0,30:.S323+, ?8/+03T17,I I , /30(X3.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3=/2:012<30I, =5-8.3?8/+03/2032: :-+/0623+(X-, /+73+?;?8/+0353.:032 =/<30I, <23,38:3+/5,I23/2032(X3.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,332:;83,3:3+ /57SA23+,3-+,-./012?;= /3+, =/?;,30<-1817-:.3 <-1817-:.3?21:3:: I:-:.3?21:3::32(V S3++38: /+7:? ?21:S3.030iN :193+-+,-./012?; /5.8-9/3+,2-+732]JK=3+1D8-9LM4-+/+:-320/5B1273:412:.+-+7:02;,:-00?2172/9 R8-9/O ## (c;83093,?21:s ;a.3.6++:./?3+19:/993+= /3+, ?32-1,-:.3412/+,2-+732=1:?8/+03217,I2(*?21:S ;8329/+<8/+0/++30:0/200-,:? ;23+M9-,0:19932M17=A:03+53,;.19<-+323:/ ,/0/93,1<:325/:S #Z (V304A2:0323:680/03042/ 54 Se 55 Se 56 Fra satellittbilder måles forholdet mellom refleksjon i rødt og nærinfrarødt. Når dette forholdet overstiger en grenseverdi brukes det som mål på når vekstsesongen starter. Grenseverdien 85

86 ?21:S : /53+, :0/200-,:? ;217=A:017,3293,53.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3(E ,32:325-/083+7,3+?; 53.:0:3:1+73+=/2A.0-:;;:--=3838/+,30(R/20305-:32/053.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3 =/2A.093,1532C6.328/+7:.I:03+/5B12731??0-8H /"\[)0-8"\\\( Y =/253.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3A.0-=3838/+,30M S388192;,32=/2 4/.0-:.53.:0:3:1+73+< (F-,:? :0/2017:8600?;53.:0:3:1+73+ :/ ,/0/1953.:0:3:1+73+:83+7,3M171<:325/:S1+32/5/+.19:017/523-: M0-,:? <819:02-+7M ,+-+717/+,23:3:1+793::-73 5/2-/:S1+32-+/0623+(V <3,23.6++:./?19=5/53.0:3:1+73+:83+7, <30I : / ,3+, /(YS /003+,3 :/9/2<3-,32,30:/ ,/0/42/ ;83:0/:S1+32 #s (V3032,3293,-?2-+:-?? ;4239:./ /83=-:012-:.3,/0/193+, :0:3:1+73+( Figur 23 Endringer i vekstsesongens lengde i løpet av perioden 1982 til 1999 (Høgda mfl 2001) 58 Endringer i arter J"#)3*"2*<./#.(+4'')')=/217:;3+,230:37,3+:-:030-;2:?32-1,3+(c1:32178/5 324A8: /3+,2-+732M,351.:32+;2, M177;2-],5/83]+;2,30320A20(V3./+51.:353,8/ ?32/ <819:032?8/+032(V-::3 kalibreres med målinger av bladstørrelse på bjørkeløv. Starten på vekstsesongen blir her satt til det tidspunktet bjørkeløvet har størrelse som museøre (Kjell Arild Høgda, pers.med). 57 Se kart lagt ut på 58 Se også 86

87 8/+7M9-8,=A:093,S ,353.:0412=18,41291:3(R/20306+,32JP$24-* :YL5-:32/091:3,3..30=/2A.0:;;:-1532=3838/+, : :?32-1,3+( b8;4/2735-:32=512:012/+,38/5,35/ :3/203+3:19=/2a ,3m 93+:2A,4/2735-:32=512:012/+,38/5,35/ :3/203+3:19,30=/2< ,23/ , : :26+,3+3(*192;,32,32./.3,-/72/9930=/2 <;,32A,17<8;438032M=/2+13+/2032A ,3M93+:/+,23=/27;000-8</.3(* 15325;.-+7:192;,3+3-<SA2.3:.17J7683:-2.832?;./2030L=/29/+17:;237-: /5?;<SA2.3:0/9932(a3232,30237-:02320/0:/993+: /58/5/2032=/2 3+,230:37-,3+:/993?32-1,3+(V ,8-738/5/203+3=/27;000-8</.3M :/90-,-7:19932:A28-73/2032=/2A ,3(V ::19/0,3+ ]+12,8-73]8/5+/0623+< ,1532(N2/B3,328/+,32,3017:;.S3+0 /048323:6<021?-:.35/ ,3/2032=/2A ,31760<23,38:3M93+: ,8-73/20327;20-8</.3Jg.8/+,948)%%"L( O+,230:/993+:30+-+7/58/5?;<SA2.3:0/9932 E+,38/5,5/ :3/203+3:19=/2%&,-93+7,3 E+,38/55/ :3/203+3:19-)54#)-,-93+7,3 ;+63/&<=>*E'5-$'2*$*+"-)&"(#,*./*("#)-*()<<"(*,"*-)2$#,-)-$'2#-4'5)-*()5*Z37-#* * O+23..3/2032< ;.30+/:S1+/80(b3:0/+,:: :023:680/0/ ?; :4/.01232M,32.8-9/3+, ;2:19h+4/.012:19= /880-,32,3+60:8/7:7-53+,34/.0123+(V303293,/+,2312,:5U205/+:.38-7; : /5.8-9/3+,2-+732?;<3:0/+,: /2032(X/+:.38-7=30:72/,3+A.32I /+17:;A+:.32;: =18,0-8,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(B13+/ A.3M 59 Se også 87

88 88 /+,235-87;+3,(* ,30/0?103+: /5.8-9/3+, / / :/ /5/+,23?; :4/.01232(*412:8/ <-19/+7418,:-+,-./ /V / / /80+-+7JVBL32,300/00 93,237-: ""/2032JS4Q.C)<<*`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b1238-/: /,3++3/203+m:i+8-77sa2,3003/:?3.030(y81</80:329/+17:;412 3.:39?38?21< ,:?23,+-+7/59/8/2-/(c3,4;6++0/.32;2:/.T :412=18, /3+, =38:30-8:0/+,,32-910:5U20.19?83.:0M17,3293,:5U206:-..320(V305-8,3293,5U235/+:.38-7;-+.86,323,3003/:?3.030/5?103+:-388:;2</2=30-,3++32/??1203+( Effektvurderinger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`L( Nedenfra-og-opp vurderinger Y-00/0,3032:;5/+:.38-7;?3.3?;23835/ ,3-+,-./01232:19./+: / =18,0-8<-1817-:.9/+7418,M5-8,305U23 0-8:5/23+,35/+:.38-7;?3.3?;9;032;4; /+03<"&.<)+3,3+42/T17T1?? -+,-./01232?;192;,30+/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(O+968-7=30: :0;2: /+0+;2,307S38,32; ,3++30I?3+-+,-./ ,

89 /2<3-,30:19:-,3+"\\\=/2?;7; ,./ /5,30 <-1817-:.39/+7418,30( *S/+6/2"\\\7/V / / / =;+,<1.412;=S38? /2<3-,3093,./ /5,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30 Z" (V30<8-2 5-,323: ;,-7= :.6,,?;.2#%(%%% / =5320;2( R/ :/2<3-, /701???;4A873+,39;03'J"LQ??:0/20'J)LK18-0-:. <3=/+,8-+7dJ&LR/ ,:300-+7dJCLK18-0-:.<3=/+,8-+7d17J#L N125/ /83?8/+32(a;+,< /832=153,:/.38-7?6+.0J&L17,/93,=153,53.0?;./ /5,305-./+./883,3+]/$<<)]17 ]:S38,+3]+/0623+M :6??832093,./ / /+,:./?30.+I ,30=-:012-:.3S12,<26.:8/+,:./?30J:8; M :8;0039I2321:5L(V30325-,3238/7053.0?;./ :19-++:? ).<=<.'<)22$'2)'93,0/+.3?;/ :./8/5: / ;,32 93,68-.72/,32-+7/5/)-'(*8A?30/5)%%&=/2_/C%% ;000-8:.6,, /+793,./ Z) ( N ,325-:32303.:39?38?;81./83./208/730?;726++8/7/5237-: /5,30<-1817-:.39/+7418,30(X /+,3++30I?3+./2017:;<26.3:0-881./83 562, /5= :3.53+:32.8-9/3+, /+=/-412=18,0-8,30 <-1817-:.39/+7418,30M93+,/9;.6++:./? ;2:/.T :412=18, :0I2.3:53:3+08-7(X-,32332,303+:012412,3819, :;./803,-7-0/80 9/2.:8/7:./20JVcRL(@8-.3./203230/57SA23+, /7412?;3+.1:0+/,: ;03;?21,6:323,3++30I?3+./20 Z& ( 61 DN-håndbok nr , lagt ut på 62 Se 63 Status mhp dekning for utarbeidelse av DMK er vist på 89

90 Figur 25 Eksempel på lokalt biomangfoldskart 64 Næringsvirksomhet +/:S1+/8237+:./?30=/25--0/< , #7-C.-B),#$'5)&# I?32'0-$'2#/$-&#"(B),M17: ,;:3:/983,35-$+,#$'',)&,)- 412=532+U =18,0-8+U2-+73+::/983,360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(*+,3.:3+ =/2< : ? :8-??(K ;4;3+-+,-./012?; 5-2.:19=303+3:A.1+19-:.3<U ;0; ,-7A SA/ ?;60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32(V ;932.3:37/05-$&&)=/2 0/0093, :19= : ,32412,-<3723?30],2-40: ]-..3 =/2:/ :19=30 Z# (E50/< ,32:325-/0, /+:?120+U2-+73+M,3+18S3T177/::238/ ?21,6.:S1+3+M,3832/5 -+,6: ?2-9U2+U :194/883260:1993:0:;2</23( 64 Hentet fra 65 I denne sammenhengen består offentlig virksomhet av kommunal vannforsyning, kloakk og renovasjon, statlig administrasjon og forsvar, undervisning og kommunal administrasjon 90

91 Tabell 9 En rangering av ulike sektorers økonomiske bæreevne til å tåle klimaavgifter og/eller gjennomføre egne klimatiltak ( lavest indeks indikerer mest sårbare næringer) Næring Sektor Driftsresultat (mill kr) 66 CO 2 -ekv. (1000 tonn) Indeks (kr/tonn) Andel sysselsetting Jernbane og sporvei transport ,17 0,9 % Olje- og gassrel. tjenester energiproduksjon ,43 3,8 % Produksjon av fjernvarme energiproduksjon ,18 2,4 % Lufttransport transport ,17 0,2 % Utenriks sjøfart transport ,27 6,6 % Kjemiske råvarer industri ,31 0,3 % Metallindustri industri ,42 2,3 % Oljeraff., kjemisk og mineralsk ind. energiproduksjon ,63 0,6 % Drikkevarer og tobakk vareproduksjon ,67 0,7 % Trelast- og trevareindustri industri ,20 0,2 % Post og telekommunikasjon transport ,35 1,6 % Annen landtransport transport ,41 10,2 % Fiske og fangst primærnæring ,53 2,7 % Treforedling industri ,67 0,4 % Jordbruk, jakt og viltstell primærnæring ,05 0,4 % Innenriks sjøfart transport ,54 3,0 % Bergverksdrift industri ,09 0,4 % Fisk og fiskevarer primærnæring ,82 0,8 % Utvinning av råolje og naturgass energiproduksjon ,85 0,7 % Tjenester tilknyttet transport transport ,84 0,7 % Møbelindustri og annen industri vareproduksjon ,72 0,8 % Kjøtt, kjøttvarer og meierivarer næringsmiddelindustri ,95 1,0 % Andre næringsmidler næringsmiddelindustri ,15 1,1 % Bygge- og anleggsvirksomhet vareproduksjon ,21 2,0 % Tekstil, bekledning og skotøy vareproduksjon ,07 0,0 % Verkstedindustri industri ,62 0,8 % Skipsbygging industri ,56 0,1 % Andre sosiale og personlige tjenester tjenesteyting ,31 0,7 % Hotell- og restaurantvirksomhet tjenesteyting ,57 0,3 % Varehandel, rep. av kjøretøyer mv. tjenesteyting ,62 0,4 % Forlag og grafisk industri industri ,53 0,4 % Oljeplattformer energiproduksjon ,92 1,4 % Skogbruk primærnæring ,32 0,5 % Fiskeoppdrett primærnæring ,91 0,8 % Forretningsmessig tjenesteyting tjenesteyting ,88 2,2 % Finansiell tjenesteyting tjenesteyting ,58 0,8 % Prod. og omsetning av elektrisitet energiproduksjon ,01 13,8 % Rørtransport transport ,59 3,8 % Sum/snitt ,99 69,5 % V / :19327S /=3+:I+300-8,3:/983,360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::3217h+0I? ,,38'/57-40?;60:8-??(F-8:5/23+,3562, /+03+.3:37-412=18,0-8/+, ,832M :/993+:/003 ] ,,38?/..32]38832</23-412=18,0-860:8-??/5h+0I?3.8-9/7/::J412 3.:39?38DQ ) L(*9/+738/ A , /25-5-,32393,1::,3 66 Gjennomsnitt for perioden

92 ./ :19=3032:19-0/< :0;2:1993:0:;2</ /?18-0-: ,832J-23/ :8-??:/ LM/80:;' Transport 67 : Sjøfart, lufttransport, buss og drosje Energiproduksjon: produksjon av fjernvarme, olje- og gass. *+,6:02-'Kjemiske råvarer, metallindustri, trelastrelatert industri, drikkevarer og tobakk. Primærnæring: saltvannsfiske, jordbruk 68 En lokal vurdering av sårbarhet når det gjelder både klimapolitikk og klimaendringer vil da være å få frem andelen sysselsatte i de antatt mest sårbare næringene, eventuelt supplert med en mer detaljert vurdering av sårbarheten i de samme næringene. Kommunevis oversikt publiseres i forbindelse med folke- og boligtellingen utført av Statistisk sentralbyrå 69. Poenget er å få frem om man lokalt har et høyere innslag av risikonæringer enn det som er på nasjonalt nivå. Tabell 10 Andel sysselsatte innen ulike næringer, eksempel for Sogndal (2001) Næringer Norge Sogndal Forskjell Sårbare næringer Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske 4,1 % 6,1 % 48,8 % Utvinning av råolje og naturgass, industri og bergverksdrift 14,3 % 14,3 % 0,0 % Transport og kommunikasjon 7,3 % 7,3 % 0,0 % Andre næringer 38,0 % 37,9 % -0,3 % Tabellen over viser at Sogndal er noe mer utsatt enn landsgjennomsnittet på grunn av det relativt store innslaget av sysselsatte innen jord- og skogbruk. Problemet med statistikken vist over er imidlertid at den ikke er nok finmasket i forhold til de vurderingene og konklusjonene vi kom frem til i Q.C)<<*9. Men med mindre det gjøres lokale vurderinger med innsamling av data lokalt er dette det beste vi har. Infrastruktur B;2,307S38,32$'+-.#,-4&,4-32,3093:023835/+0;0/412:3702/+:?120: ( F/< ,325-:32= /+:? :193293:0]./2< :-53]- <30I,+-+73+:0A2:060:8-???32604A2002/+:?120/2<3-,(N12=)-#"'02/+:?1205-8,30,/ 5U2302/+:?120?;:SAM ,?32:1+<-8:193293:060:/00(c-+:060:/0032 +/ /+:?120?;:.-++32M:19-/88=153,:/ :320-B1273( F2/+:?12093,<6:: : (N122"5#02/+:?1205-8,305U23 48I1702/+:?120?;53-:193293:0?21<839/0-:.M93+:02/+:?120?;:SA=/2,3 8/53:0360:8-??3+3( *3+81./8:;2</2=30:562,32-+79;? U23;4; :3.53+: /80:.-8832:3753: /,30:197S38,324128/+,30:3006+,32300(j+9;03; 4;4239,3003?;32;:/ /+:?120< /8093,+/:S1+/83 7S3++19:+-00(O081./8:/ ,93260:02/.0<26./5?32:1+02/+:?120?;:SA17 67 Vi har valgt å se bort fra jernbane. Utslippene er her helt marginale, og grunnen til at jernbane fremstår som så sårbar er de meget store driftsunderskuddene. 68 Om vi tar med utslipp av metan vil jordbruket få indeksen kr/tonn utslipp av CO 2 - ekvivalenter; med andre ord omtrent like sårbar som sjøfarten er for avgifter på CO Se 92

93 71,:02/+:?120?;8/+, :39?385U23932:;2</2412DQ ) T/ /8:/ ,3+238/0-50:012/+,38?32:1+02/+:?12093, :03?/203+ /571,:02/+:? /581./8:/ ,<;0( Tabell 11 Utslipp av karbondioksid fra transport etter utført transportarbeid (Holtskog og Rypdal 1997) F2/+:?1209-,,38 DQ ) J7$?32:1+.9L E+,38?32:1+02/+:?120 F2/+:?1209-,,38 DQ ) J7$01++.9L E+,38 71,:02/+:?120 a620-7<;01(8( %MZ& 0,5 % N8I )M)\ 0,2 % N8I %M)% 7,3 % X/23$.19<-<-832 "MCs 12,5 % a / %M") 0,4 % H/:03<-832 %M)% 18,7 % K32:1+<-8 %M"" 82,5 %M"& 9,1 % c1012:i..38 %M%\ 1,4 % FA228/:0:.-? %M%s 10,9 % P603<-8 %M%[ 8,0 % F/+.$.19<-:.-? %M%) 48,6 % B;32,30-..3/880-,968-7;4239:./44381./8302/+:?120,/0/:19./+ :/ :93,+/:S1+/83:+-00(O+03+9;9/+81./807S3++194A2381./83 23-:35/+36+,32:A.38:32M= /+:?120,/0/42// :38:./?M388329/+ 9;7SA23+13+/8032+/ , ( O+/8032+/ U ;< :360:8-??:,/0/42/3+ s% Tabell 12 Utslipp av klimagasser fra transport per person for Norge (1999) og Sogndal (2000), tonn CO 2 -ekvivalenter per person og år Transporttype Norge Sogndal Forskjell Veitrafikk Person- og varebiler 1,55 2,08 34 % Lastebiler og busser 0,60 0,82 36 % Moped og MC 0,02 0,02-6 % Skip og fiskefartøy 0,08 0,14 61 % Fly 0,04 0, % Andre mobile kilder 0,25 0,28 12 % F/< I../5@17+,/8: :;2</ /+,:7S3++19: ;2,307S38,32.1+:3.53+: /+:?120/ :-06/:S1+93,: /?18-0-:.30-80/.J-?2/.:-:'/ ?;60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32L(V ,8320-,48323:5/.=303293,, ,3+M:1917:; -886:02323:93,3.:39? ( N12,304A2:033260:8-??42/+<6,-.'#="-,</230/0093,-, ,3248I?8/::3+ < : :3+M17,/< :1960:8-??42/:/ I<353738: </..3+-5;17"%%93032:=AI,3(V30037SA2/060:8-??42/?32:1+02/+:?12093,48I : ,323:0-9320(*?2/.:-:4/8832,3++3 0I?3+60:8-??603+19:I: ,6++0/./ : I?8/::32M :8-.: @17+,/8(V304-+:4I8.3:5-:3,/0/41223-:393,48I-B1273M :3,/0/(a5-:9/+-..3=/2968-7=300-8;7S3++194A23 81./8323-:35/+36+,32:A.38:32M17,3293,.6++3/+:8;194/+730/548I23-:

94 94 81./80M32,3093: ,3++3:/993+=3+73+;:3<12042/< :19 N12?32:1+<-802/+:?12032:-06/:S1+3++U2:/70,30910:/003M-1793,/09/+=/2 </:320:37?;53-02/ :19-++3<U232/0.<<?32:1+<-802/+:?120604A20/5 <;,3-++<I / :3+, S3++19,3+/ /:93,(a3232,30/80:;:+/..193+"/)-3: (O+/8032+/ U ;< :3< /+0/88-)2$#,-)-,)*=)-#"'C$<)-*=)-* +A..380/ s" ( Q7:;41202/+:?12093,<;032,/0/3+39/ (a32:.-883:, ?32:1+T1771,:02/+:?120M /0,3++3,:./ /5+/:S1+/83,/0/:19 327S120-91,3883+M /:.300-8/0,3+4/+7321??81./ /83 5/2-/:S1+32JY2153+)%%"L(Q7:;=32329/+/5=3+7-7/5;= /+:?120,/0/ 81./8042// /+:?120:38:./?( Næringsvirksomhet B;2,307S38,32:;2</2= /3+, ,=3+:I+0-8+U2-+7:5-2.:19=3032,304A2: :0-412=18, A :0/53.:02395U2/05-./+: ?23:-:019=5-8.30I?32+U2-+732:1932:;2</23(B;2,307S38,32.1+:3.53+:32/593272/,5-:3178/+75/2-733+,2-+732M:19,/17:;93,4A232 A.1:I:0393+,2-+732M32,308/+705/+: ;: ?23:-:0d-/8834/ =/2/9<-:S :;;4; /835/2-/:S1+32(V3+U2-+732:19,/4239:0;2 :1993:0:;2</2332+U2-+732:1932:032.0./B)'2$2*./*'.,4--)##4-#)-*f4A2:0/5 /80?2-9U2+U :;5-, ,8-+7:<3, I ,3003(c/+:./8 = /0+/062.5/ ,3+=380/57SA23+,323::62:3+17:; : B1273M /023-: :032.0?;5-2.30,-23.03/5.8-9/( O+, ?32/062T17+3,<A2:9A+: , /7412?8/+03?21,6.:S1+d:385:9;3+, /+4;: ?;A.1:I: :/993+= /880-,8-.3;?3+</23(g.06:-..32=3093,=3+:I+0-85U :37: :.4/ :39?38-S12,<26.30M53,/ :-7</2=303+ A.32:./,3?103+:-/830(V30325/+:.38-7;:-=512,/+3+, :8;60-?2/.:-: -412=18,0-8?21,6.:S1+-S12,<26.30(Y35-+:03+/ :0:3: :39?3817:;/5=3+7-7/5+3,<A2:9A+:03230(b;, I ;8:0S3+8-7(`8-.3/ :;23/ ?;:/9933+, /M :/90-,-7:19h+72/,:3+, ?32/ :0-,./+4;:0A223.1+:3.53+:32 3+h+72/,:3+,2-+7-: ?32/0623+(g /:.353.: ?86::T179-+6:72/,32195;23+5-8A.3?103+:-/ :0:./,32<;,3- S12,< :.17<26.30( O+, ?32/062./+7-3+,2-+7-A.1:I: <23,38:3+/568-.3/2032( g.03039?32/ :39?384a230-8/0: :32.2i?32+12, /293.SU231721<6:03023:8/7J:19<A.173-.LA.32?;<3.1:0+-+7/5,

95 4A873+,3A.+-+7-: /5:.17( g.+-+7-=/5039?32/0623+./+7-53.:0-<3:0/+,3+/568-.3/2032m<;,3?8/+03217,i2m:/90-,-7:19,30;? ,2-+7-/2032:60<23,38:3:9a+:032(o+, ?32/062./+17:; /7412a ??<819:02-+7/57-40/8732m17350( :/53.: ,?;5-2.3,381./83412=18,3+3412<;,34-:.317 =/5<26.(K21:S3.030]O_1+19-_*9?/_014D8-9/03D=/+731+B12^/Io: N3883:412/883: M322-: A.+-+7-:./,3:194A873/ ,3+/5 +I3:I.,19932J<;,3?8/+03T174-:.3:I.,19932L17:./,3,I2M-++023,3+/5+I3 /2032J:19672/:17:1??LM:/90=I??-73231??<819: /54123.:39? ,383:6.8/23M =/968-7=30412;: ,-./ ,3003( Q4-$#()323+/++3++U2-+7::3.012:19.+I0032:37+U /0-:.3412=18,( a329;5-: , , :3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(v3, :3.53+: /53+,2-+732:197s38,32i5u230id4123.:39?38 /0i,; i5U2:19932:0-,./+23,6:3230-8:02A /5: :032(V3 -+, :3.53+:3+34A8732/5A.1:I:0393+,2-+732M:19-7S A:0/5.8-9/3+,2-+732(O03.:39?3832/0A.07S /58/+,:./?30T:19-/8834/88,385-:32412;2:/.30/5.8-9/3+,2-+732f./+4A ,6:320-8:02A99-+7/5 062-:03219: ,-8/+,:./?:<-8,301??4/003::199-+, ::/+0d ,-192;,3+3<8-29-+,23/002/ : (R1+:3.53+:32/5 3+, /?/2/ ,3293, I,-793,=3+:I+0-83+,230 :;2</2=30( Tabell 13 Næringer som er særlig sårbare for klimaendringer BU O.:39?832?;.1+:3.53+:32 W12,<26. g.0039?32/ ,<a2./+7-a.0?21,6.:s1+m93+:/90-,-717:;a.0321:s1+ 17A.03?21< ,:./,3,I2(g :-7</2=307-2A.0 :./,3?103+:-/8(*++023,3+$1??<819:02-+7/5:./,3127/+-:932:194A873/5 g :0/53.:02395u2./+7-a.03?21< ,: m:/90-,-7 :19A.0039?32/06217A.0+3,<A2./+7-A.053.:017=AI323: :3( c/2-+34-: O+, =/5:02A993217A.0: /5=/5-:3+-+12,192;,3+3./+7- :01233+, U2-+7:726++8/7175/+,2-+7:9A+:032412/002/ :.3:8/7( c/2-+1??,2300 g.0039?32/062-.i:04/25/++./+7-1??<819:02-+7/5+i37-40/8732(g :0/53.:02395U2./+A.34/23+412=/5/2-/51??,2300:/+8377( P3-:38-5 aai323039?32/062-02/,-:s /+,: ;, ,93++ Ji:I,3+iL./+A :?A2: ; B1273M:/90-,-7:19A.0 039?32/062./+:53..3< : :93-9/+73/5,/73+: :0/+,/2,-: /T17T+3,-+,-./ ,3883+(V :39?38 5/+:.38-7;:0-8831??+3,:./832-+7:-+,-./ S12,< ;:?3:-4-:323, ,2-40:0I?32(O+426.0<1+,3-a/2,/+732M <1+,3?;WU

96 3+.12+<1+,3-a3,9/2.=/268-.9/27-+93,=3+:I+0-8= /3+,2-+732,3./+0-8?/::3:37 og hvilke klimaparametere som er de mest kritiske. ]H<$(.,)*HB.'2)*F4<')-.C$<$,6*$'*1"-O.6N*"M$"3)M"'"($M*T)-#=)M,$/)#*"'* T"<$M$)#*.'5*?(=.M,#]L412,3+81./ /,9-+-:02/:S1+3+M<83,3 +3,:./ :680/ S12,<26.:?3:-380M93+17:; :93M:300?;: / /0,3-..34/+7301??81./8:?3: =18, 71,0+1.(N12:A.30?;;: /T17T+3,-+,-./ S12,<26.30 </:320?;3+, /87.8-9/?/2/ :412=3838/+,30<83./2/.032-:320:198-03,3..3+,3412, :-06/:S1+3+-S12,<26.30?;X1:: JQob )%%&L(V30035-:32</23/0S12,< I,-7M17/0, ; ]<1993]+;29/+<3=/+,832/883S12,<26.: (W12,< ;,323223:680/0/58/+70-,:0-8?/: =38081./8:?3: =18,J<;,3 +/ /L(D"'#)&/)'#)-/5.8-9/3+,2-+732<A2,3293,41238A? ,323:81./80(V :-,/70/88? ?;=6:,I2=18,17 S12,<26.:/23/8 s) M179/+=/2,3293,/88323,3+; = ::72/,;.8/::-4-:323S12,<26.30-= (H-.3538M,30324A2:0+;29/+=/2:06,320 ;2:/.T :412=18, ?21,6.:S /-932,30/8SM/0, ,/ / , ,30/8S : :;2</2=30- S12,< A0393,.8-9/3+,2-+732M7S3++19+I3]B1273:./20]</:320?; -+,3.: =532+U2-+7:./03712-( Når det gjelder sårbarhet knyttet til jordbruksproduksjon, vil i tillegg samspilleffekter mellom fysiske og biologiske prosesser kunne gi ytterliggere samfunnsmessig sårbarhet (bl.a. jorderosjon og produksjon). Som nevnt ovenfor, så knytter det seg usikkerhet også til dette aspektet ved effekter av klimaendringer. Det er desto viktigere at lokale vurderinger forsøker å fange opp aspekter ved disse mulige samspilleffektene. Ved Norges Landbrukshøgskole foregår det modellutvikling som sammenstiller fokus på effekter av klimaendringer med hensyn til: vann- og varmetransport, jorderosjon, plantevekst, karbon- og nitrogenomsetning i jord og utveksling av klimagass mellom jord og atmosfære 73. Målet er å kunne vurdere økonomiske og økologiske konsekvenser av en endret klimatilstand for jordbruket, og man går helt ned på arts- og dyrkingsteknisk nivå. Prosjektet har derimot ikke kommet langt nok til at vi har kunna bruke resultat i vårt arbeid her. Sårbarhetsvurderingene må dermed bygge på lokale vurderinger av årsak/virkningsforholdet mellom lokale driftstyper (plantetyper og husdyrarter) og klima, for slik å kunne spesifisere sårbarheten i det lokale jordbruket, utover den økonomiske avhengigheten av næringssektoren. På overordnet i nivå kan man derimot si at alle landbrukskommuner bør sjekke sårbarheten med hensyn til klimaendringer i mer detalj. V303217:;:5U20.19?8-:320;/+:8;=5/#4()++)&,)'/5.8-9/3+, <8-412,-::3+U (B13+412=18,J:19A.0039?32/062L5-8-:18320: :8;?1: J4123.:39?38<3,23< : ::30I?32S12,<26.:53.:03217 : LM93+:/+,23412=18, :8;+37/0-5060J4123.:39?38 A :0/53.:02395U293,?;4A873+,3A.072/,/5: :.173+L( V30/57SA23+,3=3232:6993+/5,368-.3, = /0 :/9:? /+:8;60?;9;032:19325/+:.38-7;41260:-(* Jordbruksareal og husdyr, se: 73 Economy and Ecology of Agriculture in a Changing Climate (EACC; ). 96

97 ,3:/993+=3+732:195--,/7-..3=/20-8: :./?19M4123.:39?38,38/+7:-.0-73A.1:I: /5303+, /(Q7,3003<8-2/80:; ,/932.19?8-:320=5-:5-17:;:./8?2A53;4;4239,3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+( O+0-8+U ;4;4239,3+81./83:;2</2=303++;2,307S38, U2-+7:93::-73.1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, /+,324124A2: :05U23 </23;4;4239,3+81./83./B)'2$2B),)'/5,-::3+U (V =18,30./+ -886:02323:53,;:/ /:S1+/83: '5)<)'*./*#6##)<#),,$'2)'-++3+,-::3+U ,,381./83412=18,3+3(O /+9/+:6??832393,; :/ /+,383+?21,6.:S1+81./80-412=18,0-8:/9830+/:S1+/8?21,6.:S1+( K ;4; /8:/ /5=3+7-7/5,-::3+U ,30:197S38, B1273( Y-00/081./8:/ :19932:;2</203++8/+,:7S3++19: h /5+U :0-0/< M./+,30035U /7412; 7S3++194A23932,30/8S , /5= :3.53+:32:19:I+3: 23/8-:0-:.381./80(V30039;-/ U23932?23:-:317.5/8-4-: , ,305-=/25-:0-0/< ,32M<8(/(</:320?;'-L :./?3219=512,/ I?32.8-9/?;,2-5./+?; I?32?21,6.:S1+M17--L81./8.6++:./?190I?3?21,6.:S1+( Tabell 14 Forslag til lokale indikatorer for næringer som er særlig sårbare for c ,-./01232 W12,<26. T /+,38S12,<26.:/23/8/5:/98308/+,/23/8 T T /+,38?21,6.0-50:.17/23/8/5:/98308/+,/23/8 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38: c/2-+34-: T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38: c/2-+1??,2300 T :/ /8?21,6.:S1+?32-++<I /80 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38: P3-:38-5 T /+, :38-5:19: /80:197S38, :93 T /+,38/5:/9830:I::38: O05-,323/2<3-,93, M0-8?/: ?2A5-+7/581./83.8-9/:;2</2=30:-+,-./01232<A27;+U ?;.1+:3.53+: , U ; ,30/8S / ,-./01232( Infrastruktur c3,-+42/: ,3++3:/993+=3+73+?;4a873+,34i:-:.3: ' T 53-32M=326+, <2632 T </+32J /++30:.-++37;3+,39/ L T =/5+32 T 48I?8/::32 T 83,+-+7:+300J8640M./<38L T 2A2:I:03932J/58A?M5/++412:I+-+7L T,/9/+8377J-=153,:/.1??,399-+7/5.2/409/7/:-+32L T <I J3+.380<I :/993+=3+73+,3<3<I7738:3L V /: :19-607/+7:? :0;2:19:U28-7:;2</2+;2,30 7S38,32.8-9/3+,2-+732'-4A2:03197/+7A :0/53.:02395U2J5-+,M +3,<A2LM93+17:;-412=18, /+7: /,5-:33+,2-+732:19A.0 97

98 +3,<A2J:19./+7SA23+I3192;, :.23,60:/003L173+A =/5+-5;30J:19./+<32A23.I:0+U2353-: L(Q7:;=3232,30.19?8-: =18,:19:? M:19-7S3+7SA2,305/+:.38-7;: :3.53+:32( Transport *412:06, /5.8-9/3+, ,-.'#="-,#)&,"-)'JNS38,948 )%%)L: , :19<837S3++194A206+,32/2<3-,3093, B/:S1+/802/+:?120?8/+412)%%ZT)%"#M.1+.86,323:,3093,/0.8-9/3+, i<32A238A?3+,3,2-40M53,8-.3=18,17<323,:./??;3.:-:0323+,3 -+42/: /4-../ T17.1+:026.:S1+17<I77-+7/5+I-+42/: i JNS38,948)%%)')ZL(P/?? =3532A.023::62:-++:/0:0-8<323,:./?M 23?/2/:S <I773+,30-80/.9102/:M6078-,+-+7M6+,3272/5-+7M 1532:5A9938:3M ,4/88(P/?? :;562, / /83 412:.S38832+;2,307S38,32.8-9/3+,2-+732: / /+:? /: M17= :3.53+:32,3003./+4;JS40/<388 6+,32L( Tabell 15 Mulige utslag av klimaendringer med relevans for transportsektoren (Fjeld mfl 2002) R8-9/T F219:M B12,8/+, aai4s38830 *++8/+,30?; N-++9/2. X3:08/+,30 Q:814S12,3+ X-+, % % % ba8732 % y y P37+ % % % } % N2I:3$0-+3 % } % } } } a/5+-5; % y y F;.3$-:-+7 T T T T T T F /2-+7' } 9-+,2360:/00 % 9-+-9/83+, :/00 : :/ : :/00 T,/0/ y /+0 P/??1203+1? ,""./ / :3.53+:32:194A873/5.8-9/3+, :0-0/< (V-::37S38,3293, /.412:/ /5, /+:?120:I: J-+.86, LMS32+</+302/+:?120M :SA02/+:? /+:?120' T 412:-+.38:3M8/+,8-773M23768/2-030 T 621-=/5+J /+0412S32+</ /+:?120L T 0;.3M-:-+7 T 78/ T$.SA23</+3J /+0412:SA02/+:?120L T :+AJ /+0412:SA02/+:?120L T 4819J /+0412:SA02/+:?120L T : T :.23,J /+0412:SA02/+:? /+:?120L T :03-+:?2/+7M:0129:./,32M5-+,4/88J /+0412:SA02/+:? /+:?120L T 412<I77-+7:T179181:./,32 T 4128-:M:/993+:0A0M60.SA2-+7 c : < ;7sa , /83 5/2-/:S :3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+,2-+732J:30/<3886+,32L(F/ :0-98

99 0/< ,3232, :;-+0323::/+03-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V-:: ,;: :3.53+:562, :19327S120412, :19325-:015328/+7:3+:./8/42/%J9-+-9/833+,2-+732L0-8CJ93730 : L(K13+730=3232;4;4239/0,3032: /835/2-/:S :3.53+: /+:?120: ( Tabell 16 Oppsummering av konsekvensvurdering for transportformer av mulige klimaendringer. Høyere tall indikerer større negativ konsekvens (etter Fjeld mfl 2002) F2/+:?120T F219:M B12,8/+, aai4s38830 *++8/+, N-++9/2. X3:08/+,30 Q:814S12,3+ X3- "& "& "% & ) & b/+3 s s s s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d)-')#,9; 9/+562,323=5125-,0C-4&)'/5-+42/: ?;5-2.3:/5.8-9/3+,2-+732( g.02/:4/23./+4123.:39?384a / /:h603+/0,30?; :-.0<3=A532;?;5-2.3<26.3+/5,3081./ ,-772/,(c10:/00./+9/+03+.3:37/0A :/5:+A:.23,-:37: :./,32: M38832/0, ; /:h3+M93+/0<26.3+/ <8-2?;5-2.30(Q7:;=32./+,3832/ :03+5U2330+I /+7:? : , ( Ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg H3,+-+7:+300./+<8-:./,30/5+3,<A2J-:-+7L175-+,J /59/:032L(B;2,30 7S38,322A2:I: ,30:U28-7/58A?::I:03930: ;4/+731??1742/ /035/++: :.(V M412<I /+,230I?32 1??,399-+7:/+8377./+<8-:./,30:194A873/54819(a5-:,-:: /+,30 -+3:03197/+7608A:3+I3:3.6+,U ( O ,-./012+;2,307S38,3283,+-+7:+300M2A2:I: ,/9/ :03+/5,-::3-412=18,0-8,30:19327S3++19: =I??-7=30+/:S1+/80( *+,-./0123+<I7732,3293,?;/+0/738:3+19/081./8:/ ,238/0-50:300 :0A223-++:8/7/5,3++30I?3+-+42/: /+5U23932:/946++:A.1+19-:. :;2</ /3+, /+,23( 99

100 :0/0-: :/ ,3/58A?:2A2(B1273:5/::,2/7:T =/28/ /20</:320,/0/</:31532/883, /+,23,/9/+8377(a :;-+4129/:S1+19.2/4083, :SAT$S12,./<38(FS3+3: S ?;+30030M17,32./+9/+4; :3./201532,3++30I? /: sc ( Tabell 17 Eksempel på sårbarhetsindikatorer for ledningsnett, rørsystemer og damanlegg B1273 H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32-++<I7732 "CM\9$-++< \Ms9$-++< H3+7,3.2/4083,+-+732?32-++<I7732 e %9 ) $-++<I7732 ")%%9 ) $-++<I7732 Bebyggelse B;2,307S38,32:;2</2= /3+, ,=3+:I+0-8<3<I7738:3M./+,3003.+I003:0-8' -L<"&.<$#)-$'2)'*./*C)C622)<#)',5:(-= /,<3<I7738:33281./8-: ;,32:1932?103+:-380:;2</234124I:-:.3?21:3:: , /d17 --L#)</)*4,+"-($'2)'*./*C62'$'2)-',5:(-= /,<I :026.:S1+:93::-70;83230, A0393,30+I00.8-9/?;,2-5( b3<i7738:3./+<8-2/99//5,3483:030i?324i:-:.3?21:3::32<3: ,3++3 2/??1203+d4<$&)*,6=)-#&-)5]*#,"-(*"2*+<"((V3+/57SA23+,34/ = /,<3<I7738: /8-: ;,32:1932?103+:-380:;2</23412,-::3?21:3:: , /(*4A873K8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+<A2192;,32:1932 :U28-760:/004124/ /54819M:.23,M2/, ,3M17:19/5, <A2<3<I773:M83773:60:19]<;+,8/703192;,32] ?8/+3+: /23/8, ::19]4/23192;,32]JcV)%%"L(H / ,/ /+3+=AI/+,38/5<3<I7738: /: ??,3++3 0I?3192;,32d?;3853: M176+,322/:60:/0034S388:-,32( BXO:4819:1+3./20:?3:-4-:3232= ;,32M-+.86,320<3:.2-538:3/5= <3<I7738: /: :19<8-22/99/53, ;(X3, 1532:-.0:?8/ / :39?38< :1+3+3, ; -,3+0-4-:323192;,32:19-..3<A2<3<I773:603++U ,32-+7/54/ /.(* =/23.:-:0323+,3:.23,4/23./203+,30/8S32-+7:72/,:197SA2, :385;562,323/+,383+<3<I7738:3J17-+42/: L:19 4/ ,322-:-.1192;,3+3(*192;, ,3/88323,3./208/703192;,3+3M <A : /81./83562, / /5,3+4/.0-: /+:35-+,=/:0-7=3032:19-7S3+./+<3+I003:0-8;< ,T17:+A8/: :?3:-4-..3<I770-8?/::30<;,381./85-+, =30:72/,(c3, 607/+7:?6+.0-= /,<3<I7738:3+.1+:026.:S1+:93:: ,::0-8832,/73+:.1996+/835-+,8/:0:0/+,/2,M5-89/+.6++3=/ /7412;562,323 :;2</2=303+17:;-303+, /J6042/+I002-:-.1<-8,393,=3+:I+0-8:0129L(

101 B;2,307S38,32:+A8/:032M:30032B1273:<I77412:.+-+7:-+: /91532: =5-8.30I?32<I ,324/23+412:/993+<26,, A?0-8:5-.0:194A873 /5:+A8/:032?;0/.562,323:;5U23:0A2:0JS42(Q.C)<<*8`6+,32L( s# Tabell 18 Bygningstyper i faresonen ved store snølaster (Lisøe mfl 2000) E( H :026.:S1+3293,:?3++5-,,32:0A2233++"%9J3.:39?385-:0I?3=/8832M8/732T 17-,2300:=/8832M:/90,2-40:<I /+,<26.30LM:?3:-380<63=/8832 b( FI?3=/8832-9?120320:19i?/..38A:+-+732i603+, <U =3+=18, :.3:+A8/: D( bi ??4a20?;,67+/,1(8(m:191403=/2412,;28-7<u ,-, : ?21:S3.0320$604A20 V( bi =5123+,2-+7-<26.3+/5<i7730=/293,4a203+, /:041260: m 17=512.1+:3.53+:3+/5A.038/: < O( c-,8320-,-73.1+:026.:s1+32 N( Q9<I7,3<I /..1+:026.:S1+32 Y( bi ,0/..1+:026.:s1+32/58300< :19./+5u23: /+70-, / :.1221:S1+( *,3:3+323;23+3=/2,305U I..3293,:/993+<26,,/5<I <-+,38:393,238/0-50:0123:+A8/:032 sz (* =/2:+A8/:03+?;0/.30 5U20:0A2233++<I =/25U20,-93+:S (*/+, =/2 43-8,-93+:S1+3217$38832/+, ,.1+:026.:S1+3+5U2060:8/7:7-53+,3412/0 <I /?:30(`+,32:A.38:32/5=/8832<3+I ,2300M93::32M.1+: _(5-:32/0:5U209/ : :+A8/:03293,.6+#;2: 7S3+0/.:-+0325/88M+13:197SA2,30+A,53+,-7;9;.30/.30+;2,3++38/: :.2-,3:Jb8t983-+)%%&L(* /+:.38-77SA2<63,30/.-9/ ;.-+7-:37:385(B12:.@0/+,/2,=/260/2<3-,30532,-32412:+A8/:03293, ?32-1,3?;#%;2(N2/"\\\:./8,-93+:S /5/883<I ,:0-883,3++3:+A8/:0532,-3+(*++0-8"\\\5/2,30532,-3+412:+A8/:03293,23062?32-1,3?;#;2:195/2.2/530(V3003<30I2/0,3483:03<I77-+12: /+706+,32,/73+::0/+,/2,.2/5(*9A0393,+I00.8-9/?;,2-532, /+:.38-7;83773,/73+::0/+,/2, ,32-+7/5+I002-:-.1<-8,3(K;.8-9/:-,3+32,30, /20/5A.03:+A93+7,325-8A.34/23+412:0123 :+A8/:032( b3<i7738:3./+17:;<8-2/99//5]:8/7237+]( ss Nedbør i form av slagregn kan medføre store problemer for ytterkonstruksjonene (fasader). Mengden slagregn som treffer en bygnings ytterflate avhenger bl.a. av nedbørsintensiteten, vindens hastighet og retning, lokal topografi, skjerming fra omgivelsene og ytterflatens orientering og helning. Åpne kyststrøk og høyfjellstrøk har normalt de hyppigste 75 Det blir også satt fram en alternativ metode for utpeking av sårbare bygg: For bygninger oppført i perioden kan en gå ut fra at kritisk snølast for lette takkonstruksjoner er 1,5 kn/m2 (150 kg/m2), mens en for tunge tak kan forutsette noe større lastevne. For bygninger oppført i perioden bør det forutsettes at kritisk snølast på tak ikke er større enn 1,5 kn/m2. For bygninger oppført etter 1979 kan det forenklet antas at kritisk snølast på tak tilsvarer de snølastene på mark som er angitt i NS 3479 for hver kommune, dvs. vanligvis 1,5-3,5 kn/m2. sz *,3:39<32)%%).+3803Q:81N8I.86<<:=/+7/2?;RS ,32:0123:+A9/:: ;2:/.30 :012:./,3?;.86<<3+:48I(*"\\\.188/?:30HA.3+;:=/883+M-HA23+: M6+,32:0123 :+A93+7,3217?;726++/ :026.:S1+/50/.30( 77 Ved regn og vind i kombinasjon får regndråpene en hastighetskomponent også i horisontalretningen. Dette kalles slagregn. 101

102 og største påkjenningene i dag, mens innlandsstrøk er mindre utsatt. Det finnes i dag ingen samla oversikter over slagregn i Norge, men i prosjektet Klima2000 ved Norges byggforskningsinstitutt foregår det utvikling av grunnlag for vurdering av slagregnpåkjenninger 78. Prosjektet vil også presentere metode og anvisninger for hvordan slagregnpåkjenninger kan vurderes i forbindelse med prosjektering av bygninger. Dette vil kunne danne grunnlag for fremsetting av enkle indikatorer også for vurdering av sårbarhet med hensyn til slagregn på eksisterende bygningsmasse. Q S3++197/+7/5.2-0-:.34/ :32/0,305-85U235/+:.38-7; ,:./832-+7:-+,-./ <3<I7738:317:;2</2=3093,=3+:I /3+,2-+732(O+562,32-+7/581./8:;2</2=30?;, ;,309;-:-+=38=30,3293,<I773?;81./83562, </:320?;30:30081./83:;2</2=30:-+,-./ , ,32-+7/ <I77:60:/00=30( #(# *+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30 X-./+: :?3:-4-.0?32:?3.0-5?;:?A2:9; /8 -+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30(V302)')-)<<)?32:? S38,3281./8:/ : ;7S3++194A233+,2-+7:?21:3::32932/8893+0(a3232,3072/,/5/ ,-:?1+-<8323::62:32:1932/57SA23+,3(E ,-./01232= /5 Qpb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

103 X-:32,3293,<12042/412: : :0-06:S /+0/00.8-9/:;2</23 +U2-+732:19?2-9U2+U :38-530(V ,5;23 /9<-:S1+3219;7SA23-+,-./012:I: : /83 <3: :?21:3::32( X-=/20-,8-7323: ?21/ / U /0-8?/:+-+7( V :.-883:19./+.+I003:0-8:?A2:9;83019+;29/+7S3++194A232 :.-883+;2,307S38,32=512,/+-+:0-06:S =18,32: /:;2</2=30( *+:0-06:S :0-06:S1+3883:I:03932./+<3:.2-53:6042/01412=18,' : ,3+-+:0-06:S /?/: /8032,30, : ;237-: : :03,3J4123.:39? =/23+/23/8?8/ =/20-8:/ SA532+83,32L(V ;4; =512,/+: <8-2<26.0J4123.:39?3819,30 < ,-:?3+:/:S <I ;,32:19./+<8-2/:60:/00?;726++/ /3+,2-+732L(V3003:-:03?8/:: ,321532: ]53,5/23+,3]M93+: ;< : ]2>)''"(+%-$'2#)/')S?;,3+./ :0-06:S ,-./01232:19:./84/+731??:?A2:9;83019 ]53,5/23+,3/ ]( V3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: < ,1::=/ /,./2/.032/5; 17:;3053,5/23+, ,3+412:0/+,/0,3:/993?8/+3+3:./84A873:1???; ; ,/7T0-8T,/7?2/.:-:(b323,:./?-++3=18, ??4A87-+7:197S38, ??23/.0-53/ A:0/ :32( *-++83, ,38-+7:19a3/83I948J)%%&L7//523::62:32 :1932:3+02/83+;29/+:./8<3: :0-06:S1+388:;2</2=3081./80'.6++:./?:23::62:32M :23::62:321791<-8-:32-+7:35+3(a3/83I948J)%%&L /0-50/<:02/.03.:39?38?;=512,/+9/+412:A.32;<3: :0-06:S1+388 :;2</2=30(O0/ :39?38M93+: /+:-3:;<I773?;,3+0I?3-++,38-+7:1932?23:3+0320/5a3/83I948M32= /X32,3+:</ SA.1+:3.53+:32/5?21:S ,:0A00342/X32,3+:</ ;:-.23.5/ ?; SA?21:S3.032(O.:39?832?;:8-.3-+,-./ s\ ' 9-8SA<6,:S300:19/+,38/5:/983, /+0/88/+:/00393,60,/++38:3-9-8SAS6:: 3.:-:03+:/59-8SA3+= / /+0/889-8SA?8/ Se også 103

104 .6++7SA2-+7/5+I39-8SA :-:03+:/59-8SA E883-+,-./0123+3,23-32:3719-+:0-06:S1+3883: M93+,-::3./+726??323: I?32: (V3+4A2:03-+,-./0123+,23-32:3719%&"'"($#&*35+3JS4 17:;-+,-./ /0Qpb )%%&7S ,+-+7:5-:-,3003./? L(V32+3: ,-./01232:19,23-32:3719&"(=),.'#)JS4 a3/83i:./03712-].6++:./?:23::62:32]l(v3:-: ,-./0123+3,23-32:3719 #,6-$'2#()##$2)17>4-$5$#&) :19=/29I :93,, =/2 < :19?21/ SA /80+-+7M.1996+/8?8/ <323,:./?( `0/5,-:.6:S ; A873+,3439./ /5 -+,-./ :0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30' g.1+19-:.35+3 R19?30/+:393:: /7 K21/ P3/ YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 *0/< ,32=/25-:/004239/ ,-./ ,3023-+:0-06:S :I:0393+3'9-8SA /80+-+7M.1996+/8?8/ <323,:./?(V-::332 3+<8/+,-+7/5/8835;23439./ :0-06:S ,-./01232( Tabell 19 Forslag til indikatorer for lokal institusjonell sårbarhet med relevans for arbeidet med klimatilpasning *+:0-06:S1+380:I:039 *+,-./01232 R1996+/8?8/ T : :,38: /8/23/8?8/ T 60/2<3-,30/23/8?8/+,32:;2</2= /3+, /0-:320 T,-:?3+:/:S1+3242//23/8?8/+ T <I773:/.:<3=/+, :I+93,<I :19=30 R1996+/89-8SA / T : :,38: /89-8SA532+83,32 T 7S3++194A2-+7/59-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/ /8701??8U2-+7/ T 60/2<3-,-+7/ ,+/.1996+/89-8SA?8/+ T 60/2<3-,-+7/ /=/+,8-+7:?8/+ T :I:039/0-:.7S3++194A2-+7/5 9-8SA.1+:3.53+:562, :/.:<3=/+, R1996+/80<323,:./?:/2<3-, T 60/2<3-,38:3/53+2-:-.1T17:;2</2=30:/+/8I:3JPQ@L T 7S3++194A2-+7/5;28-73<323,:./?:A538:32 N /5-+,-./0123+3: :8; ,30-..3S ??,/03203+/:S1+/830/88M17,/9;9/+</:323:37?;/+,231532:-.032M412 3.:39?38+/:S1+/83:?A2236+,32:A.38: ,3(N ,30, : /+: /7(V3+93:0:3+02/83.-8,3+32,/RQ@FPE [% ( *+,-./0121??:30030< ,32412=/./2/.032/5,38:;5U233+:S3..8-:03 80 Jfr

105 93,.5/8-0/0-53-+,-./01232M17,38:;-++3=18,3412:8/70-8.5/+0-0/0-53-+,-./01232 :1917:; =30412:/ ,+/:S1+/837S3++19:+-00:0/88( B;2,307S38,32&"((4'.<*=<.'<)22$'232,3030:3+02/80?13+7/ =/ : /,9-+-:02/0-5./?/: ;,2-5393,153212,+30?8/ (* 8A++: ?8/ /809-8SA532+/2<3-,( O0/ : ,3++3:/993+= =5125-, =/27S120562, :-+/23/8?8/ /23/832:1932:;2</ , /3+,2-+732(V30./+5U23-412=18,0-82/:M5-+,M48191(/(a324-+:, /:S1+/8:0/0-: / ( B;2,307S38,32=-.&#$#f38832, =/2< :19]7S3++194A2-+7:35+3] T /8?8/ , / ;,-:?3+: =18,0-8/23/8?8/+=5-:,30329/ ;,32,329/+-..3A+:.32<3<I7738: /+, ?6042/.8-9/238/ :-.1562, (a ,-23.03&.'7-3+-+,-./:S , ],-:?3+:/:S1+: ] 'E+,38:A.+/, /.-, /+,<26.:TM+/062T :192;,32JHBNL ?8/+3+:/23/8,38:19< ,,-:?3+:/:S1+(X-</:32321::=32?;/+0/738:3+19/ :19=/2?2/.:-: 412;7-,-:?3+:/:S1+-412=18,0-83+?8/+<3:039938:3./+5U ,3;7-,-:?3+:/:S1+17:;-412=18,0-8/+,23<3:039938:32(O0032?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+./+192;,32:19<8-2562,320:1960:/003412<8(/(481917:.23,.8/::-4-:323::19 ]+.-)"(-75)-](E+,383+,-:?3+:/:S /.-,3++30I?3+192;, U233+:3+02/8-+,-./ ,32-+7/5?2/.:-:(V300332,32-910,/0/ B;2,307S38,32,-:?3+:/:S1+?;30932,30/8S320+-5;M-412=18,0-8 <I773<3:039938:32:19:./8:-.23/0<I ??4A23:?;3+<I7+-+7:93::-7 412:5/28-79;03-412=18,0-8?21<83932:195-+,<38/: :/00=30M , /:S1+/83:0/0-: /+<I773?;(a329;,307SA23: 81./83562, (V30/57SA23+,3=32+;2,307S38, : =5125-, A2320-8:I+93, =1:,3+/+:5/ A23+,3( E+:5/ A23+,332: ?23+A2(V3032,3++3:19:0;2/+:5/ /0<I77304I /8-030:.2/5(R , /,-:S1+388<I7+-+7: M93+?8-.032;:30-8/0<I7+-+7:<2/+:S3+: : (c/ =/2-..34;00?;?8/::, :I+:46+.:S /012,+-+73+<83-++4A2093, <I773:/.: "\\sJY2153+)%%&L( K;192;,30&"((4'.<*($<>%/)-'+"-/.<,'$' , ??,/0320 +/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..: /+0-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V30+U293: ,-./ :197S38,328A++: :/983./ ]4I:-:.?8/ M M+/06217+U29-8SA](V304-+: /:S1+/83:?A2236+,32:A.38:32:19./+7-+/:S1+/ /+:3?6+.0( <323,:./? (V303+3:0332:0/0-:0-...+I <2/++T17 105

106 68I..3:532+ [" (NI8.3: /?? ; V / :/946++::-..32=3017<323,:./?J0-,8-7323, /030412:-5-80<323,:./?L+;2,307S38,32<323,:./?:/2<3-,(P/?? ,8320-,-:01272/, : :5/2:,383+17:-..32=30:,383+/5<323,:./?:/2<3-,30M17</ /,910,30: /+0-5;2:/993+=3+7(* : I8.3:9/++3+:0-8:I+:/2<3-,M17-9-+,2372/,3+2/?? :0/06:412,30<323,:./?:93::-73/2<3-,304,+%-,*./* (V30<62, ?;:-.0 5U ;-++/2<3-,3039/17:?A2:9;8-;2:2/?? /4I8.3:9/++3+ Tabell 20 Eksempel på bruk av indikatorer for institusjonell sårbarhet B1273 R1996+/8?8/ ' HA++: I:-:.?8/ M M+/06217 &Z\.2$-++< &Z).2$-++< +U29-8SA?32-++<I7732J)%%)L E+,38:A.+/, /.-HBNT192;,3:19< , C[v )%v,-:?3+:/:s1+j: )%%%t%)l E+,383+:A.+/, /.-]4/23192;,3]:19< , e e,-:?3+:/:s1+ R1996+/800-8:I+93,/0/+:5/ A23+,3-<I773:/.324A8732 e e 71,.S ?8/+ B3- s#v [) YS3++194A2-+7/59-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/ /8701??8U2-+7/ W/ e `0/2<3-, /89-8SA532+?8/+ W/ CZv [& `0/2<3-, /8.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+ B3- \v :/.:<3=/+, W/ [v [# R1996+/80<323,:./?:/2<3-, 60/2<3-,38:3/53+2-:-.1T17:;2</2=30:/+/8I:3JPQ@L B3- e 7S3++194A2-+7/5;28-73<323,:./?:A538:32 e e ;2: :S1+3+]4123<I77-+7/5<2/++3217/+,2368I..32] %M"& %M)# J)%%)L F53227;3+,3' B3001,2-40: :S1+3+3]4I:-:.?8/ M M+/06217+U29-8SA]?32-++<I7732J)%%)L )[[.2 &C#.2 O.:39? T: ,-7604I80412,-<;,381./8317 +/:S1+/83,/0/9/+7832T-+, /0@17+,/ ?; ;,32 =/23+-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030?;8-+S393,38832<3,233++,30:19325/ : M93+: ?;/+,23192;,32=/23+8/5323-+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( 81 Se 82 Andel norske kommuner med miljøvernansvarlig i 2000 (Bjørnæs 2002). 83 Andel norske kommuner med utarbeidet miljøplan i 2000 (Bjørnæs 2002). 84 Andel norske kommuner med utarbeidet klimahandlingsplan i 2000 (Groven og Aall 2002). 85 Andel norske kommuner som i 2000 oppga at de har innført bruk av miljøindikatorer eller miljøstyringssystemer (Bjørnæs 2002). 106

107 *, ;3+,3./? =/25-412:A.0;4A8731???21:S3.030:4A2:034129;819 ;7-3+<3723?:93::-7:?3:-4-:32-+7/5]-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30]17]0-8?/:+-+7] 93,=3+:I :.3412=18,(*,3003/5:86003+,3./? A8731???21:S3.030:/+,23?21<839: d+398-7,30;<3: ,-./012</:32091, ,32-+7/581./8:;2</2=30-412=18, , /3+, S3++194A2-+7/560:8-??:23,6:323+,3.8-9/0-80/.(*, :;;562,323,3+?2/.0-:.3/+53+,38:3:968-7=303+/530:8-.0-+,-./012:I:039M17;562, : ;0/-<26.:I:03930-/,9-+-:02/0-5317?18-0-:.3?21:3::32( Z(" O+01,380-+,-./01291,388 E , /+: ,"5)<,-+,-./01291,388(V3+?2/.0-:.3 </ :8-.01,38-+75/2/0300-8:5/23+,3/2<3-,=/25U207S120?/2/ ,5;20?21:S3.0M93+,329/+=/20/00607/+7:? ,3--+,-./01232 :19./+/583,3:/5;+3,:./ </83.8-9/91, <-+323,300393, +/:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..:198/2:37<2I03+3,?; ;(a153,41.6:-5;20 /2<3-,<83, ; ,-./01232:1917:;./ <-+,38:393,.1996+/83<3: :?21:3::32M+13:19-9/ : ,-./01232</:320?; <"&.<),/0/( V ,8320-,17:;3++.2<$2< :34123+:8-.01,38-+7(V3032<3= /:S1+/82/ / /,323::;2</2= /?18-0-:. :/993+=3+7(O+:8-.2/ /+<26.3:-01:/993+=3+732(*3+'.#>"'.< :/993+=3+7./+3+:8-.2/ <26.3:0-8;,2A403,304/.0-:.3<3= /0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.M412,-9/+,/4; /83]3.:023932]:197S32+3<8-2./ /:S1+/ /+,:,38:562, (X-,323./+3+:8-. 2/ / /4-:./ /5:0/ ::62: /0-8?/:+-+7:0-80/.(X-,323./+, ]153+42/T17T+3,]2/ <26.3:-3+<"&.<?18-0-:.:/993+=3+70-8; ::3+412;0/1??.8-9/0-8?/: ;42/9:/993+= :;2</2=30-412=18, /3+, /0-80/.(c3+:153+42/T17T+3,0-8+U /+=/3+ -+: :S1+-412=18,0-87S3++194A2-+7/53++/:S1+/8.8-9/? M =/23+: U /23<3723+: /8?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7 JQpb )%%&L(V/9;9/+=/-+,-./01232: A8: :-06/:S /80M17:1917:;./+4/+731??9-+,233+, ,81./80d +13:19-7S3+-9/ : /83,/0/(O+:8-. -+,-./ U29-+7=/25-/80:;7-00< :3+]')5)'+-.3"23"==]JS ,32L( 107

108 P37-1+/8-:3203 +/:S1+/83$ 781</83,/0/ X62,32-+7/5, /83 412, /5 2-:-.1 J]2-:-.19/02-:3]L aai 2-:-.1 H1./83,/0/ , H1./83 <3: :T?21:3::32 H/5 2-:-.1 *+73+5-,323562, Figur 26 Sammenhengen mellom ovenfra-og-ned og nedenfra-og-opp V ;6+,32:023.3, : /+73+42/]153+42/T17T+3,]0-8 ]+3,3+42/T17T1??]562, (K;726++/5,3+:01236:-..32=303+: <I7, /T17T+3,-+,-./ ,30/880-,3+:S/+:3412/09/+: ]7/80]',305-8:-/ :194/.0-: ??8353: / :3.53+: <8-2.8/::-4-:320:198/5T2-: _3532:/ [Z ( *-++83, /5-17:;3+4A2:03/+0I,+-+7/5=512,/+9/+./+<-+,3:/ /T17T+3,173++3,3+42/T17T1??</:320-+,-./01291,38853,=S38?/53+ :;./80#7-C.-B),#(.,-$#)(*0/< ,32=/25-5-:03+?2-+:-??91, =512,/+9/+./+2/ /8:/946++J,5:(-5; L(X- <26.32/80:;309-+,23605/87-+,-./01232f,3:;./ /T17T+3,/583,3,3 -+,-./0123+3f412;2/ =153,./ JS40/< ,32L' 8/52-:-.1 91,32/02-:-.1 =AI2-:-.1 V3032=3830-,3+:+/..192-:-.1412;1??8353')2.,$/).1+:3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, $ /0-80/.(H/+7:,3+3+3/.:3+=/25-4A201?? -+,-./ ?21<839:./?-+7J/80:;,3++/ ,3+:/946++:93::-73 :;2</2=303+LM93+:,3+/+,23/.:3+=/2-+,-./ ?21<8398A:+-+7 J/80:;-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30L(@0A2:02-:-.11??:0;253,.19<-+/:S1+3+/58/5 -+:0-06:S1+388./?/:-030J38832=AI-+:0-06:S1+388:;2</2=30L17.19<-+/:S1+3+/5 =AI+/ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30( 86 Ett eksempel på en slik feilvurdering er en analyse av lokal sårbarhet i forhold til landbruket, der landbruket på Vestlandet og kyststrøkene i Nord-Norge kommer ut som mest utsatt for negative konsekvenser av klimaendringer. Dette begrunnes med at disse delene av landet risikerer mest forverring av forholdene for landbruk på grunn av mer nedbør om våren og høsten, redusert snødekke og relativt mindre forlengelse av vekstsesongen sammenlignet med andre områder i Norge. Motsatt kommer innlandskommunene på Østlandet ut som relativt sett mindre utsatt på grunn av redusert nedbør om høsten og vinteren, og relativt liten nedgang i snødekke sammenlignet med andre områder (O'Brien mfl 2003). Denne konklusjonen fremstår som urimelig først og fremst fordi man her har behandlet landbruket under ett og ikke tatt hensyn til den regionale fordelingen av høyst ulike produksjonsformer. Husdyrhold kombinert med grasdekke året rundt på Vestlandet gir for eksempel et langt mer robust landskap enn korndyrking og jorder uten plantedekke om vinteren på Østlandet. 108

109 "#$%%&<:*K$#$&"(.,-$#)*+"-*7*#"-,)-)*4,*&<$(.()##$2)*B%6-$#$&"*&"((4')-* K21<8398A:+-+7' *+:0-06:S1+388 :;2</2=30 H/ /0-80/ ?/:+-+7 H/ /0-80/ ?/:+-+7 aai /0-80/ ?/:+-+7 K21<839:./?+-+7'+/ :/946++:A.1+19-:.:;2</2=30 H/5412+/ :/946++:93::-7 H/5412+/ :/946++:93::-7 aai412+/ :/946++:93::-7 Lav risiko Mooddeerraat t rri iissi iikkoo Høøyy rri iissi iikkoo O03.:39?38?;30.8-9/0-:.=AI2-:-.1:/946++./+5U2323-:38-5:,3:0-+/:S ;,32:19=/2-+53: :?120:/+8377M:19./+<8-9/27-+/83+;2,30 7S38,32/+0/88,/73293,:-..320:+A,3..3M17: =/2,;28-760<I7, /+:?1200-8<6,17:012/+,38/ :3+,393,48I17?32:1+<-8(a /+5U2360:/ /93::-7,1<<3802-:-.1.+I ,2-+732/5.8-9/30 J9-+,23:+AL ,7/ :0:02A993+:194A873/5A.03,2-5:0144/ ( V3+-+: < /T17T+3,17+3,3+42/T17T1?? -+,-./ U <3:0;2-/0,3+:-:030-8+U ,0/+.3?; <26.-,3+726??3+: :19]=AI2-: ]M:195-/80:;=/ :194A873/53+562, ,=S38?/ /T17T+3, -+,-./0123+3(@./8, SA23:M< ,30/05-./+: ,-::3 01./ /5-+,-./01232(*0/< ,32=/25-?23: :A.?;3+:8-. : M,325-=/2<26.0=3+=18,:5-:< :3+3]237-1+/83]17]81./83] -+,-./01232:19:I+1+I9?;, < :3+3]153+42/T17T+3,]17 ]+3,3+42/T17T1??](E /83-+,-./ </:320?;+3,:./832-+7/5781</83.8-9/91, /:S1+/8:0/0-:0-..:19./+<2I03:+3,?; ?8/+M,32,/0/17:;J-=153,:/.L320-87S ?;* (V381./83-+,-./ /87/5,3-+,-./ =/2,2A4030-2/??1203+M175-85U <-+/:S1+/5 0230I?32-+,-./01232' ]+I3].5/+0-4-:3203-+,-./01232</:320?; /83,/0/ 81./83S6: / , /83-+,-./ /]:.SA++] ?23:-:34/ , /003+,381./83562, ;81./8-: :;2</23192;, I:-:.31<S3.032M: ,321??93,81./83:;2</2=30:./20 *0/< ,325-8,381./83-+,-./0123+3, <U23932?237/5;5U23 :S3..? /83562, ( Tabell 22 Skille mellom overnfra-og-ned indikatorer ( regionale indikatorer ) og nednefra-og-opp indikatorer ( lokale indikatorer ).;<=>2541I4A?<0,?C=4;2D?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 O853: d O.:-:0323+,3 &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 R/2043:03,34819:1+32 O7+3./ /5 109

110 110 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+, ,<A2195;23+ O+, ,<A219 : O+, ,<A219=A:03+ O+, ,<A O+, ?32/062=A: O+, ,<A2:19:+A E d O+, :/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+, : : ,<A A?$:1+3293,4/ :./,32J :1+3+3Ld3853: H1./83S6: /5.8-9/,/0/ X62,32-+7/52-: O+, :/5 3.: , O+, : : , H3+7,3.I:08-+S3 N12:.S SU23 O7+3./ /5 :012960:/003192;,32 H1./83S6: /5.8-9/,/0/M?;</.726++/5 01?172/4-:.3:U2023..' R :.23,d O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+, :/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+, : :0239 O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+, ,<A2:19:+A O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+, :/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+, : : ,<A2 O+,2-+7-/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/732 R/2043:03,32-:-.192;,32 O7+3./ /5 :.23,4/ ,3./208/ ;,3+3d4S388: , = C%$C#72/,32d17 :/ ,35/::,2/76+,32 9/2-+:1+3 H1./83S6: /5.8-9/,/0/ O21:S1+ E+,38,I2./9/2.93, :012$:5U20:012321:S1+:2-:-.1 O.:-:0323+,3 2-:-.1.8/::-4-:32-+7 O+, :/5 3.:0239+3,<A2 O+,2-+7-/+0/88421:0$0-+3T,/732 O+, ,<A2:19:+A R/2043:03,32-:-.1192;,32 O7+3./ /5 321:S1+:2-: ,3./208/703192;,3+3 [s E+,38=A:0?8AI-+7 E+,38=A:0=5303 H1./83S6: /5.8-9/,/0/ [s aai3:0321:s1+:2-:-.153,'<2/ m9i3:-80-s12,91++30m /+-:.9/032-/8317,;28-7, :72/,(

111 1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i: O+, :0:3:1+73+: 83+7,3.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19= Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer 88 *+42/: `0:8-???32?32:1+/5.8-9/7/::3242/91<-83.-8,32 F/?/5/2032 O0/<832-+7/5+I3/2032 O+,2-+7/5<-101?32 c324-+9/:.30 :I::38:300-+7::0/0-:0-.. Y26+, , /.0-:.:;2</2=30-,34/.0-:.3 <3, N12,38-+7/560:8-???32 02/+:?1209-,,38 W6:032-+7/581./8360:8-?? J:U I17<;0L H1./83562, /5.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Andel sysselsatte innen risikonæringer =18, /17 :;2</2=30412/ ]2-:-.1+U2-+732] *+42/: ' 02/+:?120 *+42/: ' 83, *+42/: ' <I P37-1+/8:;2</2=30:562, /+:? /: \% H3+7,3/58A?:83,+-+7?32 -++<I7732 O+, ,<A2:19:+A?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** b :4239: : SA532+83,32 K21/ HA++: I:-:.?8/ M M+/ U29-8SA H1./8./ /03712-:32-+7/581./8?21,6.:S1+ H1./83562, :;2</2= /+:?120:I:03932( H1./83562, /58A?:83,+-+7:+300M.2/4083, ,/99/7/:-+ E+,383+<3<I7738:381./8-:320- ]4/23192;,32] \" *,3+0-4-:32-+7/5<3<I7738:3-4/23:1+3+53,:0123:+A8/:032 \) H1./83562, :;2</2=3093,=3+:I+0-8 :8/7237+ H1./83562, ,-7A.1+19-: YS3++194A2-+7/5 9-8SA1??8U2-+7:19,38/ /8701??8U2-+7/ X3,0/ /8 9-8SA532+?8/+ X3,0/ /8.8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+ X3,0/002-:-.1T17 88 Jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske, utvinning av råolje og naturgass, visse former for industri og bergverksdrift, transport og kommunikasjon. 89 Jordbruk, skogbruk, marine fiskerier, marin oppdrett og reiseliv. 90 Grovmasket vurdering gjort i forbindelse med Nasjonal transportplan for med egne vurderinger for følgende regionale enheter: Troms/Finmark, Nordland, Trøndelag/Vestlandet, Sørlandet/Oslofjord, Høyfjellet og Innlandet (jf Tabell 16). \" Q92;,3293,2-: M2/:38832:0129M17:19-=3+=18,0-8K8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+:./ ::19]4/23192;,32]( 92 Etter Norsk byggforskningsinstitutts oversikt over bygningstyper i faresonen. 111

112 P3/ >2: :S1+3+ ]4123<I77-+7/5<2/ /+,2368I..32] YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 B3001,2-40: :S1+3+3]4I:-:.?8/ M M +/06217+U29-8SA]?32 -++<I7732( YS3++194A2-+7/5;28-73 <323,:./?:A538:32 E+,38:A.+/, /.- HBNT192;,3:19< ,,-:?3+:/:S1+ R1996+/800-8:I+93,/0 /+:5/ A23+,3- 9-8SA.1+:3.53+:562, :/.:<3=/+, E+,383+:A.+/, /.- 4/23192;,3:19< ,,-:?3+:/:S1+( *0/< =/25-7S12030:.SA++:190605/87/5, ,-./ =/2,2A4030-, ;3+,3./? (X-=/28/7053.0?;/0,34123:8; /83 -+,-./ S d-9/ ,317:;0-87S ?; * : T388324I8.3:5-:30/88(X ,8320-,-7S3+6+,32:023.3/0 -+,-./ / ,0/+.3?;/0,34A2: :0:./8: /:S /06217:/946++?;,3+3+3::-, /83 -+:0-06:S1+32d,30:-:03-910: ]:-5-83]-+:0-06:S1+32.+I /+-:/:S1+3217,3081./83+U2-+7:8-530( O03+, /87/517: / /83-+,-./01232<A2 </:323:37?;3+932,30/8S320562, ,/0/0-87/+717f5-.0-7:0f3+ 60?2A5-+7/5-+,-./ ?2/.:-:412; =51271,]23:1+/+:],381./83 -+,-./0123+3=/ /8<3: ::/993+=3+7( F/< =18,32-+,-./01232:19-=153,:/.4239: )<.,$/ :;2</2=30(K ;4;4239<"&.<5/2-/:S1+-412=18,0-830'.#>"'.<,* 2>)''"(#'$,,M4123.:39?38/+,383+/5].8-9/?18-0-:.:3+:-0-53]+U2-+732$* +"-B"<5*,$<*308/+,:7S3++19:+-00(V/ :39?383+:-,-73-+,6: ,32-+,6:02-3+=/2:U28-7: /7/::60:8-?? :19238/0-50: :;2</ /+,:7S3++19:+-00(b/ ,305U230/ C#"<4,,:;2</2=30M-=153,:/ , /5,3++/ :;2</2=303+f4123.:39?38:;2</2=30412:.23, M,32,30./+5U23/ ;1? ,+13+/<:186003:;2</2=30:723+:32( ]K21,6.030]/5;0/-<26., /83-+,-./ ]B1273:./20]:19 5-: ,23:;2</ M:19-7S3+./+83, :/ :-.1562, ,<26./52-:-.19/02-:3+5-:0-"#$%%&<:(X3,;0/-<26.,3 81./83-+,-./ SA2381./83S6: , J+3,3+42/T17T1?? 0-8+U L5-89/ /832-:-.1./ ,30/8S , /8:;2</2=30172-:-.1412;1?? / :3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, $ /0-80/.(V-::332:;93+0;-++7;:19 6+,328/ /83<3: ( 112

113 Z() K;0532:17?;8/+7:f19.1< /:S1+/ /83 60./+1?32/:S1+/8-: ,-./01291,388(* =/ ,+13:0A2232/9932M93+-/+, :3003:, /5+I.6++:./?( V30./+5U23.6++:./?19+;0-8:0/+,3+M: :39? /30+/ <-1817-:.:;2</2=30(*/+, /+,305U23.6++:./?:9/+738+;2,307S38, :-.0-;2:/.T /+-:932d :; /30+/0628-7<-1817-:.:;2</2=30(c3+-9/ ?21<839309/+738?;.6++:./?19,3+81./835/2-/:S1+3+/5.8-9/?;, /835/2-/:S1+32+;2,30 7S38,32+;0-8:0/+,(* ,8320-,?21< ,23M53,/09/+3++; -..3=/ :I:039/0-:.;:/993+: :-:0323+,3.6++:./?19+;0-8:0/+, /?;,2-5(*0/< ,32=/25-412:A.0;:I:039/0-: :./?:9/+7383+?;, ;,30( Tabell 23 Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for de foreslåtte sårbarhetsindikatorene (jf foregående tabell).;<=>2541i4a?<0,?c=4;2d?=;<=>2541?1 8B;<?15?E2 1.,4-<$2*+6#$#&*#7-C.-B),* N819 O+5-::1532: ;0-8:0/+,J0-87S ?; * L `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 O+5-::1532: ;0-8:0/+,J0-87S ?; * L `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ O21:S1+ O+5-::1532: ;0-8:0/+,J0-87S ?; * L O+5-::.6++:./?19 ;2:/.$ `:-..32=30.+I00/0-8 P37D8-9:,/0/ 1.,4-<$2*C$"<"2$#&*#7-C.-B),* g.1:i: ;2:/.$ c/ ,3-+,-./01232.(+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-c.-b),*+"-*&<$(.="<$,$&&* BU2-+7:5-2.:19= &4>2D?=;<=>2541?1 N1260: / /003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562, M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260: / /003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562, M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260: / /003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562, M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260: / /003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7$ 562, M17S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ N1260: / /003+,3 81./8,/0/-++:/98-+7 Tilgjengelig på Internett F-87S /8:0/0-:0-..( N1260: / /83 562, *+42/: Tilgjengelig på Internett F-87S /8:0/0-:0-..( N1260: / /83 113

114 562, (+4''#%&"'"($#&*#7-C.-B),*+"-*&<$(.)'5-$'2)-* BU2-+7:5-2.:19=30 Tilgjengelig på Internett. N1260: / /003+,3 81./83562, ,/0/-++:/98-+7M17350( S6:032-+7/5.8-9/,/0/ *+42/: ' 02/+:?120 F-87S /:S1+/82/??120 J./+8/:03:+3,42/* L N1260: / /83 562, *+42/: ' 83, Tilgjengelig på Internett mht veier R/+-++3<U23194/003+,3 -++:/98-+7/5,/0/81./80 Ikke god statistikk på andre tema *+42/: ' <I H : ;0-8:0/+, N1260: / /003+,3 81./83562, ?'#,$,4#>"')<<*#7-C.-B),** g.1+19-:.35+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260: / /83 562, R19?30/+:393:: : B/:S1+/832/?? N1260: / /83 562, K21/ Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260: / /83 562, P3/ Tilgjengelig på Internett N1260: / /83 562, YS3++194A2-+7:35+3 Tilgjengelig på Internett R/+93,4A23+13 /2<3-,:.2353+,3 :I:039/0-:32-+7/581./83,/0/ X;291, :30032:19?;? / ,380:02/037-(NA2:07SA23:,30 3++/:S1+/8562, , /83412, /5:;2</2=30(V/ / ]B1273:./20]:19726?? :-.1M ,-73562, =AI2-: ,=S38?/55;23412:8/ /83-+,-./01232( *607/+7:? /+9/+03+.3:37010I?32/+/8I:3293,726++8/7-5;2 -+,-./01291,388' K;<.'2#',5:(-++3+h+:3.012J4123.:39?388/+,<26.L( K;,/)-#',5:(412:/908-73: /32( V3+4A2:030-8+U / :0194/003+,3M93+:,3+:-: <U2323+:/ ,32-+7J?;0532:L/5/883: '/80:;3+562,32-+7/5,3+:/983,3:;2</2= /80(Qpb J)%%&L :39?832?;]?;8/+7:] /+/8I:32' : /+,<26.JS4P$24-*8YL( *++7/ ;<26.35;291,38832/0+A..38-+,-./ /2:371?32/:S1+/8-:323( V3032,-::3:19:./ /7412;562,323"(, ,0:023530; 7S3++194A23932,30/8S3203:;2</2=30:562, /80(a5-:, /83 -+,-./ , M9;9/+-:0A22372/,</:323:37?;8A:3 5-:32/50/< , /32,32,3.6++:./?:93:: : :03,3412;7SA23]?;8/+7:]562, (V3293, 32,30= ;7S3++194A233+].19?8300]?;0532:/+/8I:3(V303217:; 6: =5128/+709/+-?2/.:-: ,3+]?;0532:]/+/8I:3( V30=/25U /993+3/5,3003?21:S3.030;?2A533+:8-.< M17-114

115 3++;9-+,2372/,;?2A536019,3< /+,/ / /7412; =AI2-: /3+]010/8]:;2</2=30:562,32-+7( F-;293,9-8SA412:.+-+7=/25-:01::/0412=18, ;2:/ :S38,3+] S30](.(#=$<<)++)&,)-32=380:3+02/83-412:0;38:3+/5:/9:?-8830 / ?;.8-9/7/::60:8-??4125-::30I?323+:-,-73-+,6: (*,3483: ,3+:/983,3:;2</2=3081./80:191403:05U23<3: / M:19<;,3: :371??17:19./+:./?3:/9:? (a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`042/30A+:.319;23,6: /7/::60:8-??3+3./+,305U23 A+:.38-7;.1+: <18-760<I '0-:3+0269M /0: < :37-+U2=303+/ :/00385M./+,306042/3+0-8?/:+-+7::02/037-5U23A+:.38-7;48I003+I3< : /+70/)&&42/:3+0269( V ;,32,32:/9:? /+1??023M93+,32.6++:./?:726++8/ :5/.00-8;:-=512,/ U23(V30:I+3:412 3.:39?386.8/20=5/:1932:/9:? /+,<26.:?21,6.:S1+-B1273/ :0:3:1+7?;726++/5A.0039?32/ = ??<819:02-+7 /5+I3:./,3127/+-:932( *0/< ,32=/25-:I:039/0-:320, / /5:;2</2=30M,325-=/2 412:A.0;4; ;,32,32,30./+1??:0;:/9:? '192;,32,32h+17 :/993:/946++:A.1+19-:..1+:3.53+:./+<8-?;5-2.30/ h+4/.012( F/< /74124A873+, :S1+32'.<<):/946++:192;,32 =/20-8:I+38/03+,330?103+:-/83412;<8-60:/00412:/9:? (K)$#)<$/),17 =-$(0-'0-$'2)')J4-:.32-17S12,<26.L32,305-./+./883](4<,$#7-C.-)]+;2,30 7S38,32.8-9/M-,3+412:0/+,/0,33260:/00412?; //8835;

116 ?; :./ (B;2,307S38,324-:.32-MS12,< :38-5:I+3:,3093, /+,2312,;5U2330:U28-7:0120?103+:-/83412/0,30./+1??:0;:/9:? ( Tabell 24 Samfunnsøkonomisk sårbarhet i forhold til :;2</2=30 R8-9/? R8-9/3+,2-+732, NI:-:.3 3+,2-+7:?21:3::32 b-1817-:.3 3+,2-+7:?21:3::32 10-$'2)- T 02/+:?120 ~ ~ ~ T -+,6:02- ~ ~ T?2-9U2+U2-+7 ~ ~ ~ ~ T 23-:38-5 ~ ~ ~ ~?'+-.#,-4&,4- T 02/+:?120 ~ ~ T /58A? ~ ~ T.2/4083, ~ ~ T,/9/+8377 ~ ~ T <I ~ ~ V30325/+:.38-7;6083, : /83-+,-./01232:19./+<38I:3 4/23+412:/9:? (F/< ,-./:S1+19/0 81./8:/946++:1932:5U20/5=3+7-7/54-:.32-MS12,< :38-5=/2303.:02/ :01206:-..32=30: S3++19,3+;?3+</20:0A2234/ /+7:? /+: :-7</23:/9:? /+,230I?3281./8:/946++( F/< /+17:;<26.3:0-8;23: ?21< , #4()++)&,)-(c3,: , /.01232<-,2/20-8;608A:3 h+17:/9930i? m/80:;/0194/+730/5.1+:3.53+:4239:0;2:193+:69 /5, A:0/ /.01232(F/< /74124A873+, :S : ' I<<):/946++:192;,32327S3+:0/+,412: ( Q-.'#="-,]*-)$#)<$/17=-$(0-'0-$'2)-J4-:.32-17S12,<26.L32,305-./+./883 ]5"CC)<,*#7-C.-)S /?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7M-,3+412:0/+,/0, /0-50?;5-2.30<;,3/5.8-9/?18-0-: , /3+,2-+732( N-:.32-+U :3.012: U23],1<<380:;2</2]53,/0,3+ 2/993:/5<;,3/ ?;60:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32J+U2-+73+=/230238/0-50: :8-??42/4-:.34/20AIL173+, ;: /+7?;726++/5+I3 5/+,2-+7:9A+: ,6:320?21,6.:S1+/ :.3:8/7( O+/ : ,305-./+./883&"C<),) M:191??:0;2+; h++U2-+717:;7-2, :8/7-3+/++3++U2-+7(O03.:39?38?;,300332:/9:? /+:?120T1723-:38-5:+U2-+73+(E ?;60:8-??./+ 2/99302/+:?120: :032.0M17,3293,17:;23-:38-5:+U ,/017:;,3+ 23-:38-5:238/03203?32:1+02/+:?1203+<8-22/9930M /023-:38-530:385./+ <8-+37/0-502/9930/5.8-9/3+,2-+732( *910: ,305-?;?3.0319:/9:? M5-8,30412: U ;4; /80026::38<-8,3(V :8300<3:0;-;:3/883 :;2</2=30:-+,-./ / :192;,3+36+,32300( 116

117 Z(C H1./8.8-9/? :194A23T5/2? F-8?/: , ,,30;5U :.3d :0,30; 0-8?/::3:37.8-9/0-:.33+,2-+732(R8-9/0-8?/:+-+732,32412-:37: I :/.(V3032= I:/./00-8?/: /0-:.33+, U20.1<8300-8:?A2:9;830196:-..32=30M<;,3?; /+7:-.0(V3+,/7T0-8T,/7 0-8?/:+-+73+:197S38,325U23032/880-,<3= ,6:-..32=30d8-.3:;,3932 8/+7: ?/: /0-:.33+,2-+732(iBI00i<8-2,304A2:0+;2.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7.1<83:0-8,30:194239:0;2:193+/55;20-,::0A2: ,2-+732d ,30;23,6:323,393++3:.3:./?03.8-9/?; (V /:?A2:9;830(V30037S38, :0-,3+?2/.0-:.3? M93+17:; -9324/78-73:/993+= I :?A2:9;83019=5-8.3<3: :91, /+6042/4/ /+/+<34/83(V30037S38,32:?A2:9;83019=512,/+ 4/003<3: ,326:-..32=30(a3232, ;4;/5.8/20<;,372/,3+/5 17./2/.0323+/56:-..32=30(V301:3+02/836:-..32=30::?A2:9;83+37S38,327-#.&3 /$-&'$'217+"-5)<$'2/ M:19-7S3+=/2.1+:3.53+:32412<3: ,6.:S1+/5.8-9/7/::60:8-??J=326+,32:?A2:9;83019<-+,-+7/5./2<1+-:;./803./2<1+8/732L170-8?/: /3+,2-+732(X3,:01272/,/5 6:-..32=30M,326:-..32=303+32/53+?2-+:-?-388./2/.032M<A29/+562,323/+,23 <3: :91, :-06/:S1+32,329/+/+:32;=/ : :./?(*,304A2: /+,30/ :412<26./54A23T5/2T?2-+:-??30d-,30/+, ,30/+,23<3: :?2-+:-??32:193293: /+03JS ,32L( W?;;?F>?F>235? B5FD=332A >D=E2C2FF?1 -D=E2?;<1=;C?1 >D=E2?;<1=;C?1 g.1:i: /0623+ NI:-: /0623+ g.1:i: V5FD=33F0 1?<BF?1?;<? 5=D52> w : :./? w:5u206: :./? -D=E25=D32F;=;C Figur 27 Vurdering av usikkerhet og forskjeller i grunnlag for begrunnelse av utslippsreduserende tiltak og :?A2:9;830"(93++3:.3:./?0360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::324/.0-:.93,4A2323+, /30(V30+3:03+-5;307S38,32)++)&,)')/5303+, /M-17412:37 6/5=3+7-7/5:?A2:9; /3+,2-+732:.I8,3:93++3:.3:./?0360:8-??/5.8-9/7/::32( 117

118 X-5-8/8, ;: :./?19;2:/.T ;2,307S38,32 :?A2:9; :.3:./?0360:8-??/5.8-9/7/:: A:3+,3;2:/ / (`03+;<26.3?8/::?;3+194/003+,3/ /:S1+=32M ; =35,3/0, /,/54/78-7:-..32= ,3003:?A2:9;830(O+.1+:3.53+:/530:8-.0:0/+,?6+.032/0,3017:; /,/54/78-7:-..32=30 </.:0/+,?6+.030/05-<A223,6:323,393++3:.3:./?0360:8-??3+3/5.8-9/7/::32( B;2,307S38,32:?A2:9;83019)++)&,)-/5.8-9/3+, ,30-9-,8320-,4120:/00 :01236:-..32=3032?; ;,32(a3232,3001,-93+:S1+32',303+37S38,32 ;2:/.T M93+:,30/+,237S38,32,3+412, ,17219/ ( *5;22/??120=/25-:?3: =3530:?A2:9;830199/+783+,3.6++:./?19 ;2:/.T ;2,307S38,32%&"#6#,)()++)&,)-(V3003:I+3::19;5U <-8,3195-:/ ,305-=/2./80,3+4I:-:.317<-1817-:.3 :;2</2=303+( B;2,307S38,32+"-5)<$'2/ =/25--2/?? : ::19 412, (X-=/ /7412;.1+.86,3233.:?8-: :?A2:9; , ,(B;2,307S38,32412, "(32,3+93:0:3+02/83 6:-..32=303+.+I ,30;:-+13: =512,/+.8-9/3+, ,383: / /80d :0:?A2:9;83019=512:012360:8/ :9;6:-..32=30:4/.01232M ;:012360:8/781./80( O00,2/9/0-:.3.:39?38?;3+:8-.6:-..32=3032:?A2:9;83019=5125-,0 Y184:02A ?;5-2.3:53:3+08-7/5.8-9/3+, J-532:034/88/0,3+ ]:+62]L(a5-:Y184:02A993+]:+62]5-8B1273-=153,:/.5U ,3+ )%%"L(V ,3412,38-+7:6:-..32=30:1917:;7-2 60:8/7?;+/:S1+/80+-5;( j+/ /+709-+,23,2/9/0-:.:8-.:/993+=3+7m <3= ,3+:012?2-+:-?-38817:0126:-..32=30M32=512,/+,30, ,3 8/502I..$=AI02I..T9A+: :.3.I:03+5-8?;5-2.3:/53+A.+-+7/5 91, ,38: :680/093, /8360:8/7M:U28-7+;2,30 7S38,32+3,<A2(V :-..32=30: : :8/7?;+/:S1+/80 +-5;M93+: /80412:.S /83<-8,32f4123.:39?38= ;,3+:0A2:03+3,<A2:A JA:0T :08/+,30L( O+5/2-/+0/5412,38-+7:6:-..32=303+32,305-./+<3037+3:193+5$++4# 6:-..32=30(b :3+],-446:]=/25-= /9-8SA412: JaAI32"\\&d "\\sl(v30],-446:3]-,3++3:/993+=3+732/0,381./8360:8/73+31??:0;2:19 : ,3293./+-: / S3+0(O03.:39?38?;,300332, < :19]:9; ]M17,/0-8412:.S38842/]02/,-:S1+3883] : JH/+7:=18,0)%%&L(F2/,-:S1+3883]: ]=/2=-:012-:.:.S3,, -:01272/,?;,3:/993:03,3+3M1732, / ;41260:-7-00/09/+.S3++324/.01232:19+3,<A2M039?32/062M/5: :412=18,1:5(BI3 :-2.68/:S1+:9A+:023MA :0/ : :-53 +3,<A2:=3+,38: : ? /+-9-,8320-,:./?3+I ]:9; ]: ??0232?;]+I3]:03,32(O.:0239+3,<A2./+2/ :./8/17,303230: / ,-7=30-=512, ( 118

119 = :-,35/::,2/726+,019-8/+,30M./+: / :./?3:0123 :./,32( \& N ;-886: : /? (c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d93+:,3003?2-+:-??30:I+3:=AI: /+0+;2,307S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7( `:-..32=3032/ / /9=3530:1930&>)-'))<)()',-=512,/+5-<A2 412=18,31::0-8/2<3-, <U23.2/ M<;, SA? , :./?3+:19<34/0032:3793,:?A2:9; ,3,-93+:S1+324#$&&)-B),M17/06:-..32=303+:./8.1993($<>%),0-8 71,3JaAI32"\\&'&&L(`:-..32=307S38,32?; ;,32',307S38,32<;,3 6:-..32=3019;2:/.T :-..32= /+730/5+37/ SA :194A873/593++3: ?(N12/04A23T5/2?2-+:-??30:./ /+53+,38:3.+I0032,30:375-, /519/06:-..32=303+:./8 7S38,39-8SA?21<83932/5$--)/)-#$C)<./2/.032( Y-00,3+:012372/,3+/56:-..32=30/5<;,34/78-717?18-0-:../2/.032M17/ , A:0/5.8-9/3+, /+5U :-<83M32, ; :3?;.8-9/0-8?/:+-+7:1930? ;,3,324A23T5/2?2-+:-??30<A /+53+,38:3( V B/"-5.'30:8-.0?2-+:-??:./8/+53+,3:-?2/.:-:(j U ;5-:30-84A23T5/2?2-+:-??30-3+/ /:S1+412;:0I2.3 <323,:./?:/2<3-,17/ /+7:-.0-7?8/ / /5 :;2</2= /3+,2-+732(*, A,53+,-75-:17:;/0&"((4')'9; 7SA23:$*#,.'5*,$<;7S3++194A23,3++30I?3+?21:3::3+3M+13: :0,23-32:3719;:3003/50-8: /,9-+-:02/0-5317A.1+19-:.323::62:32f- 93 Noe av det mest ekstreme vi har opplevd av lokale nedbør og flomhendelser er Fulufjällhendelsen i Sverige, ikke langt fra Trysil, sommeren Det ble målt 276 mm regn på 24 timer, men trolig falt opp mot 400 mm i nedbørssenteret. Denne ekstreme nedbøren gav en flom som forårsaket store skader: utviding av elveløp, forflytning av masse, vegetasjonen ble totalt fjernet i brede striper langs vannveiene og etterlatt i tømmervaser. I Tangån og ved utløpet av Stora og Lilla Göljån, som har normalvannføringer på 1 m 3 /s, er det anslått momentanverdier på opp mot 300 m 3 /s. Sommeren 2003 ga eksempler på slike flomskader også i Norge. Under flommen i Midt- Norge august tok sideelva Vinstra til Driva nytt leie og rev i løpet av få timer med seg en hel campingplass, samt E6-brua over elva og jernbanen. Jf 119

120 4A2:03197/+70-8,30;7SA2381./83#7-C.-B),#/4-5)-$'2)-d-+3:03197/+70-8; 412=18,3:370-8: , ,;7S3++194A ?/:+-+732( Z(# Q9<26./5-+,-./01291, /80.8-9//2<3-, a512,/+./+5-:; ::;0/-<26.5;23412:8/ /83 :;2</2=30:-+,-./ ?2/.0-:.81./8:/993+=3+7e X-./+: :0I2-+7:93::-73:/993+=3+732:19-+,-./ ,3380:300./+-++7;-JaAI3217E/88)%%)L' /:S1+17,3</00?18-0-:.:0I2-+7 /,9-+-:02/0-5:0I2-+7 E8830I?32-+,-./012: U238-.3=3+:-.0:93::-73;<26.3-/883 :/993+=3+732(O73+:./?3253,, ,-./012:I: U23 <3:03993+,3412,3003(V3:3+02/ /+<A20/=3+:I ; ' T ;/$<&)'*,6=)*$'+"-(.#>"'*#"(*+"-($5<)#'30:3+02/ ;29/+:+/ /3+,2-+732M32, ,3/:?3.030/ = ,2-+732: M =18, /0-8:0/+,M.8-9/0-80/.M +/ ?21:3:: :/946++:93::-73412=18,(R8-9/91, / P37D ::?23,-.:S ,-7.8-9/:19./+5U23238/0-50 : /:S1+/89;83:01..M93+:19/880-,5-8=/93,: ,3 17:0126:-..32= /89;83:01..(@19,-:.6:S / :;2</2=305-:32M5305-= /8019=512,/+4I:-:.317<-1817-:.3?21:3::325-8?;5-2.3:/5303+, /(@/90-,-7-+, ,-./01291,3883+=512, ;:./ :./? / :3.53+:32/5.8-9/3+, /? ( T P"-#,7)<$2B),)'*./*$'+"-(.#>"')'*#"(*+"-($5<)#' :3+/5? M./+9/+:-/0412:0;38-7= ?6< / /:S /91,3883+<8-223,6:32053,/0,3+?23, ,3232:/++:I+8-7=303+M = ;4/:0:8;.6+0/8843:03,35/2-/< ,2-+732(K@PT91,3883+: : /5-+,-./01291,3883+M<8-217:;./2/.032-:320: /0-50]&.<5]91,388(@ ,8-7323M<30I2,3003/0,3./+5U239324/78-7,30/8S ,3M17:./?329-+,23]23:1+/+:] =1:/ ;8726??32(*5; ,3003:?3:-3807S38, ?6< ( T ^-4&)-/)''<$2B),)'*+"-*5)*#"(*#&.<*4,+%-)*#)</)*.'.<6#)''=3232,3.2-0-:.3 412=18,3+3.+I :?A2:9; /+7?;81./83,/0/17=512.19?8-:320,30<8-21??4/0030;41230/,381./83562, S6: (c1, < /:S1+/ ,/0/17<;,3.5/+0-0/ , /8-0/ , ?;81./80+-5;( T?'+"-(.#>"'#/)-5$' /:/993+=3+7<8-2,30/57SA23+,3-= /, 91, ;:./?381./8412:0;38:3412:;2</2=30:?21<839/ I , /3+, /? ( 120

121 X-=/ / /0-+,-./01291,3883+=/2:199;817:;; ;-3+81./8<3: ::/993+=3+7(H1./83<3: ,8320-,-..3 </23<3723+:3:370-8<3: ,32,3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;3032/601+19(O+ 538:;5-.0-7,38/581./83<3: ; :323A+:.3217<3=15 ]1??1532]-<3: ::I:03930( V3+:/993+=3+73+,325;2-+,-./01291, :0;2:1993:023835/ ; <3,23<3: :6+,328/730-,3+<.'2#$&,$2)*=<.'<)22$'2)'*81./80(V3003:.S32-?2/.:-: /993+3/ /8?8/ ?8/+T17 <I7+-+7:8153+M17194/0032,//883,3023-+:0-06:S1+3883:I: =/28A ':3853, /83?8/ M /8 9-8SA / <323,:./?:/2<3-,30(R1996+/8?8/ /+0/ =18, ' F3.:0,383+/ ?8/+3+ Y3172/4-: ,38?8/+32 F39/0-: ,38?8/+32J4123.:39?389-8SA532+?8/+M.8-9/?8/+1(/(L E23/8,383+M:19-7S3+7-22/ :?8/ ( R1+:3.53+:6023,+-+732( R1996+/8?8/ =18,3217:; ?21:3:: :197S38,32 =512,/+17-= /,-++<I / :: :-++-?8/+/2<3-,30M601532, :.2/53+3:19?8/+T17<I7+-+7:8153+: ??(O0/ :1932:5U ,3++3:/993+= :3: /8?8/ <323,:./?:?8/ (V34I8.3:5-:3 <323,:./?:/5, =/2600/ :/993+= :-738:3: =18, /83?8/+32(X-,3237S3++194A23:, /832-:-.117 V300332/883:/993+=3+732,325;20412:8/ /83.8-9/:;2</2=30:-+,-./ T562, <A ;(X-.0-73/.0A232-, /83127/+-:/:S U23f ,30?18-0-:.3+-5;30f2;,9/++3+M ?8/ M 9-8SA532+83,32J412, :19=/2,3003LM23?23:3+0/+03242/03.+-:.:3.012M?32: U2-+7:/2<3-,J8/+,<26.:.1+012M+U2-+7:.1+: ,3L17,3+/,9-+-:02/0-53<323,:./?:/+:5/28-73(V-::3<A <23,0605/87/523?23:3+0/+03242/81./ ::32M:1923?23:3+0/+03242/ 9-8SA532+? /+=/-,3++3:/993+=3+73+(V30:I+3: ;=35,3/0.8-9/0-8?/: =/:0A2:07S3++19:8/7:.2/4081./80=5-:0-8?/:+-+7:3003: /?18-0-:.:/993+=3+7(a5-:-..3./+.8-9/0-8?/: <8-23,6: :-5-80<323,:./?:/2<3-, < /23/8?8/ J4123.:39? ;;83773< : ,3L(*..39-+:032, ; 608A: :I :8-??: ?/:+-+7: /? (B12: =/20/001??60412, ; /8.8-9/? (V300332,391+:023207S ,530/88: 412:A.:?21:S3.0JY E/88)%%)L(O24/ ,/2<3-,3093,.1996+/83 121

122 .8-9/=/+,8-+7:?8/+32:;538:19/2<3-,3093,,308/+705-,323/+8/703H1./8 E73+,/)"T/2<3-,305-:32/0: : /89-8SA532+83,3232=380 /57SA23+,3412:?A2:9;83019=5125-, :./83+7/:S323:37932/ /? JE/88)%%%MH/44320I948)%%"MY E/88)%%)L(V30:I+3: ;/+0//0?103+:-/ /003+,33+7/:S /80+;2,30 7S38,32.8-9/0-8?/:+-+717:;32/5=3+7-7/5=5125-, =/2 : :23::62: ,+3017: ?3+,39-8SA532+/2<3-,d-?2/.:-: :?A2:9; =/20-8:/ SA532+2;,7-532( V3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;30&.'+1.:3003:-:0/+,0-8+U2:/70]/83+3];7SA23 81./83:;2</2=30:562, f7-00,3<3723+: :197S38,326:-..32=30 190/801532f93+, /0,3081./834125/80+-+7:+-5;30./+=//+:5/230 / ;0-8?/::3:37,32-:-.1<-8,3+3:19<2-+73:42397S3++19,381./83 :;2</2=30:562, (V A23T5/2?21<839/ /8:/ / :0; < : ?8-.03+,3:/9/2<3-,?;0532:/ : /80+-+7:+-5;( 122

123 E,2-//+:3ME(J"\\&L'E'/$-"'()',.<*="<$M6*=)-+"-(.'M)*$'5$M.,"-#(E:06,I1+ 0=3,35381? ,-_/012:4123+_?18-_I-+0=3B30=328/+,:(c/-"\\&(H/ Agder, W.N. (2001): Scales of Governance and Environmental Justice for Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change. Journal of International Development, 13: E'/$-"'()',(V2/40X32:-1+#MW/+6/2I"\\C(O621?3/+O E73+_I F/:.N12_3MVY~*D199-::-1+140=3O621?3/+D :(b26::38( E9-+ME(/+,B(F=2-40J"\\#L'iY81</8-:/0-1+Mp-+: /80=-_.+3::p/+,0=3 E6+/+MR(J)%%"L']Y81</81??5/ /8/2-/ ](*Q)(.B)+,)N* D<$(.)'5-$'2)-*3*/$,)'#&.=)<$2*2-4''<.2*"2*="<$,$#&)*=-"#)##)-( =00?'$$^^^(_-_321(6-1(+1$</_.7216+,$039/=3403$ b/+7my(30/8(j4120=_19-+7l'f'5)-#,.'5$'2*$'#,$,4,$"'.<*.5.=,.,$"'*,"*m<$(.,)* MB.'2)N*,B)*(4'$M$=.<*<)/)<*$'*1"-O.6J^ L(D*DOPQ( b30:-88mc(cj)%%"l']im,$'2*l"m.<<6]*d")#*$,*j.,,)-*a<"c.<<6g*qb)*h"',-$c4,$"'* "+*f*h$,$)#*,"*a<"c.<*h<$(.,)*hb.'2)*j$,$2.,$"'](k/?32?23?/23,4120=3q?3+ c =3a69/+v-93+:01+:14y81</8o /8d=/+73p3:3/2_= D IMP-1,3W/+3-21Mb2/m-8MZT\(Q_01<32)%%"( bsa2+u:mf(j)%%)l']c-8sa532+: he)"f=5/32:0/06:-,/7](*e/88m D(MaAI32MR(Y(MH/44320IMG(c(J23,(LJ)%%)L'P-.*($<>%/)-'*,$<*C0-)&-.+,$2* E./,39-:.3( <I7+-+7:03.+-:.330/0J%s(""(%&L(=00?'$$./83+,32(<3(+1$KVN:$=/8832%&""(?,4 E'/$-"'()',.<*J"5)<<$'2*.'5*I##)##()',M"J"\\ZLM"\&T)"[( b mh(j"\\)l't-)<$($'.-6*#,456*$'*,b)*h"'#,-4m,$"'*"+*.'*?'5)r*+"-* `BDFEV$HVD$c-:_(C( 123

124 b2679/++mw(j"\\sl'i*:f=323/c30=1,-+q62c3/: ef=36:314 -+,-_/012:-+81_/8:6:0/-+/<83,35381?93+0?8/++-+7i(L"M.<*E'/$-"'()',M518()M +1("M??#\Ts) /::3::93+001/,/?0/0-1+? :'0=3:=/?-+714/,/?0/0-1+?18-_Ii(H<$(.,)* T"<$M6M)J)T&L'"C#T"#\( Bye, A. S., et.al 2002: Resultatkontroll jordbruk Jordbruk og miljø. SSB rapport 2002/19. D13+3+MN(Mc3+.538,Mc(J)%%)L']F= _/8/60=12-0-3:-+/02/+: ^/2,:_8-9/03T+3602/8:1_-30I](*R1.Mc(MX MG(MN//SME(M,3W/732MV( "M$),6(H1+,1+'O/20=:_/+(K?"%sT")Z( 14_8-9/03_=/+73'83::1+:4219/_/:3:06,I14B120=^3:0D/+/,/i( E'/$-"'()',.<*J"5)<$'2*.'5*I##)##()',M)')["T)\&( D188-32M`(J"\\sL'nH1_/8/60=12-0-3:/+,_8-9/03?2103_ =3O621?3/+ `+-1+'?600-+7:6<:-,-/2-0I-+01?2/_0-_3](L"M.<*A"/)-'()',MX18()(B1("(??( &\T#Z( J"\\ZL'?5_#.(<$'2*+"-*&"((4'.<,*($<>%/)-'(O0605/87+/:S1+/839-8SA9;8( N12:8/ /839;8M:02/037-32M0-80/.17-+,-./ :/0:+-+7:192;,32(FOs"&(Q:81( V2/+73Ma()%%)']Y184:02A993+:01??32+3??3](*H$M)-"'))$)%%"(Q:81' D*DOPQM`+-532:-030-Q:81( O5/+:MQ(MH31+3ME(c(MY-88Mc(Ma-8<32:MK(J)%%%L'J.M-"=-45)',$.<*?'5$M.,"-#* "+*P$'.'M$.<*6#,)(*"4'5')##(Q /0-1+/8?/?32"\)(G/:=-+701+VD' *+032+/0-1+/8c1+30/2IN6+,( N/8.=3,3+MH(J"\\\LL"&.<"(-75),*#"(*)'*#,-.,)2$*+j-*)'*B7<<C.-* #,.5#4,/)M&<$'2(V2(/5=/+,8-+7(Y03<127'D=/8932:F3.+-:.3`+-532:-030 N/2:6+,ME(MW(a-883MD(E/889(48(J)%%"L'D<$(.3*"2*)')-2$=<.'*+"-*,./.'2)-* P17/8/+,:412:.+-+7( N2/9:0/,MO(Mb/..3:063+MX(Mb2603-7M*(O(MR;8;:MW(E(MBI7;2,MF(Mg.8/+,MP(a( F39/=3403(P/??120")&(F21+,=3-9'B12:.*+: B/062412:.-+7( &%(%Z(\s(FA+:<327( 124

125 NA28/+,O(W(MH(E(P1/8,MQ(O(F53-01/+,*(a/+::3+Tb/632J)%%%L'T.#,*.'5* +4,4-)*/.-$.,$"'#*$'*M<$(.,)*.'5*-4'"++*$'*1"-O.6(VBc*P3?120"\$%%RH*cE( Q:81'c :.-+:0-0600( 192;,32f41238A?-73< /P37D8-9](*Q)(.B)+,)N*D<$(.)'5-$'2)-*3* /$,)'#&.=)<$2*2-4''<.2*"2*="<$,$#&)*=-"#)##)-( =00?'$$^^^(_-_321(6-1(+1$</_.7216+,$039/=3403$ Y2153+MR(J)%%"L'D<$(.2.##4,#<)==*$*"2'*"2*P>"-5.')*;$#,"-$#&)*4,#<)==#,.<]* X3:08/+,:412:.-+7( Y2153+MR(17D(E/88J)%%)L'L"&.<*&<$(.3*"2*)')-2$=<.'<)22$'2( Y2153+MR(Ma(O(H6+,8-17D(E/88J"\\\L'L"&.<*&<$(.="<$,$&&*3*$',)-'.#>"'.<)* a/+::3+tb/632mf(j)%%&l'k)2$"'.<*&<$(.("5)<<)-$'2*3*,$<2>)'2)<$2)* &<$(.#M)'.-$)-*"2*/$5)-)*=<.')-(K23:3+0/:S1+?;]V3+C(+/:S1+/ /+: /412:.+-+7]M)\(/?2-8)%%&(*237-/5B1273:412:.+-+7:2;,MQ:81( a/2,-mk(mh(c_p12-3ta/253i17h(k-+032j"\\#l't)-+"-(.'m)*().#4-)()',*+"-* #4#,.$'.C<)*5)/)<"=()',N*H"(=)'5$4(*"+*)R=)-,#]*$'$,$.,$/)#*.'5*=4C<$M.,$"'#( a/673+mwo(j)%%)l']c323.:023905u2-5;23192;,32](h$m)-"')+2(z$)%%)( Q:81'D*DOPQ$`-Q( a/673+mwo(17f(o(b12,3+7j)%%"l']o+,2305-+,9a+: ,-7+12:..8-9/e](*h$m)-"')+2()$)%%"(q:81'd*dopq$`-q( "M$),$)#(H1+,1+'c/_c-88/+K23::H0,( a3/83imk(mc/738=/3:md(mc/,/+-?162me(mk3+,83<62imw(j)%%&l'ik8/_3m-,3+0-0i /+,81_/8?18-0-_:'/+/8I:-+7?/20+32:=-?-+-0-/0-53:i(*a/S32Mc(E(MG/73+//2 J)%%&L'd)<$C)-.,$/)*="<$M6*.'.<6#$#N*4'5)-#,.'5$'2*2"/)-'.'M)*$'*,B)*'),O"-&* `+-532: Q:81( a6,:1+mb(c(j"\s\ld19?/2-:1+14d6223+0k8/++-+7f=312-3:'d16+032?/20:/+, D1+02/,-_0-1+:(l"4-'.<*"+*,B)*I()-$M.'*T<.''$'2*I##"M$.,$"'M518(C#M+1(C( Hägerstrand, T. (1991): Om tidens vidd og tingens ordning texter av Torstein Hägerstrand. Rapport T:21. Stockholm: Statens Råd för Byggnadsforskning. 125

126 =/+73-9?/_ ^-+7:3/:1+-+N3++1:_/+,-/:06,-3,<I/0-93:32-3:14BQEEEXaPP Høydal, Ø. A. (2003): Telefonsamtale med Øyvind A. Høydal, ved Norges Geotekniske Institutt, Oslo. 27. august Høydal, Ø. A. og F. Sandersen (1999): Metode for å utarbeide faresoner i flomutsatte områder. NVE dokument Nr. 10/1999. Oslo: Norges vassdrags og energidirektorat. aai32mr(y(j"\s\l'b<>)]*)')-2$*"2*=<.'<)22$'2@*d"'#)&/)'#.'.<6#)-*/)5*"<>)3* "2*)')-2$4,C622$'2@*Q:81'`+-532:-030:4128/730( Høyer, K. G. (1993): Miljøproblemene endrer karakter. I: Høyer, KG. og Selstad, T. (red.): Den besværlige økologien. NordREFO 1993:3. Nordisk Institutt för regionalpolitisk forskning, København. Høyer, K. G. (1997): Sustainable Development. In: Brune, D. Chapman, D., Gwynne, M. (red.): The Global Environment. Weinheim: VCH Publ: Høyer, K. G. (1998): En ny form for medvirkning?. Tidsskrift for et bærekraftig samfunn, 2/1998: Høyer, K. G. og Aall, C. (1995): Kommuneøkologi og miljøproblemer: Om det globale og lokale til og med på én gang. Tidsskriftet for samfunnsplanlegging, byplan og regional utvikling, 6/95, ss Høyer, K. G. og Aall, C. (2002): Lokale indikatorer for bærekraftig utvikling. Bærekraftindikatorenes teori og historie men med hvilken framtid? I Aall, C., Høyer, K. G. og Lafferty W. M. (red.): Fra miljøvern til bærekraftig utvikling i kommunene. Erfaringer med Lokal Agenda 21. Oslo: Gyldendal. aai32mr(y(j)%%%l'4#,.$'.c<)*j"c$<$,6*k*,b)*h"'m)=,*.'5*$,#*?(=<$m.,$"'#( K=(,(0=3:-:(`+-532: P1:.-8,3(XNT2/??120"$)%%%(@17+,/8' X3:08/+,:412:.-+7 Kaiser, A. og Storevik, H. (red.) (1997): Føre-var prinsippet: mellom forskning og politikk. Oslo: NENT. R/8IM`(MK2/00MD(Mc-0_=388MW(Ma1^120=MP(J)%%&L'QB)*d)("'#,-.,$"'* E'/$-"'()',.<*F4<')-.C$<$,6*?'5)R@@QKEDF3_=+-_/8P3?120&#Z(@65/MN-S- *:8/+,:'@160=K/_-4-_E??8-3,Y31:_-3+_3D199-::-1+J@QKEDL(V1^+81/,3, 4219=00?'$$^^^(:1?/_(127(4S$K21S3_0:$O5-$-+,3k(=098 Kelly, P.M., Agder, W.N. (2000): Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Faciliating Adaptation. Climate Change, 47: R8353+MF(J23,(LJ"\\sL'F39/+69932/5K8/+'J?LDbJ@F-,:: :/946++:?8/ M<I?8/ / "T)$\s( R18:=6:Ma(a(J)%%"L']BI3*KDDT:_3+/2-32](*Q)(.B)+,)N*D<$(.)'5-$'2)-*3* /$,)'#&.=)<$2*2-4''<.2*"2*="<$,$#&)*=-"#)##)-( =00?'$$^^^(_-_321(6-1(+1$</_.7216+,$039/=3403$ 126

127 Lafferty, W., Aall, C. og Seippel, Ø. (1998): Fra miljøvern til bærekraftig utvikling i norske kommuner: Hvor er vi med MIK - hvor skal vi med Lokal Agenda 21. Rapport 2/98. ProSus: Oslo. H/+7:=180MO(J)%%&L'iR1+02/:03+3:8/+,f3.:02395/++4A2-+7*303+, /i( *++8377?;:39-+/230F.''<.'5),*$*:aZa@*F.'']*'.,4-*"2*#.(+4''*$*),*)'5-),* &<$(.(b3273+mz(9/-)%%&(e22/+7320/5b1273:5/::,2/7:t :-030:, /0( H-+,:30=MY(J)%%&L'I55-)##$'2*H<$(.,)*I5.=,.,$"'*.'5*J$,$2.,$"'*.,*,B)*L"M.<*.'5*K)2$"'.<*L)/)<N*L)##"'#*+"-*1"-O.6(K21@6:P3?120&$)%%&(Q:81' K21@6:$`-Q( H-:A3MR(P(MK23:0326,MQ(MYS3:05/+7Mc(17P/:96::3+MN(J)%%%L''%<.#,*=7* )&#$#,)-)'5)*,.&&"'#,-4&#>"')-*k*,$<,.&*+"-*4,#.,,)*C62'$'2)-MBb*T2/??120+2( Q"%)"%T"(Q:81'B12:.<I77412:.+-+7:-+:0-0600( H-5329/+MV(c(Mc32-,30=MP(J)%%)L'iD8-9/03/+,:1_-30I-+0=3`@@160=^3:0' 0=3_1+03k0412/237-1+/8/::3::93+0i(H<$(.,)*K)#).-MBM)"J&L'"\\T)"[( c/_y-88-52/ime(17x/,3.m@(j"\\#l'imm"4',$'2*+"-*mb.'2)*k*$'5$m.,"-#*+"-* #4#,.$'.C<)*5)/)<"=()',@*H1+,1+'F=3B3^O_1+19-_:N16+,/0-1+( c/00:1+mb(j"\s)l'.(bm<<#)&"'"($#&.*&.<&6<)-@h6+,'e./,39-428/730( cvj"\\)l'p"-#<.2*,$<*($<>%$'5$&.,"-)-*+"-*1"-2)(p/??120"42/23432/+:3726?? SA-+,-./01232(P6+,:.2-5FT\%s(Q:81'c-8SA532+,3?/ ( cvj)%%"l'd"((4')=<.')'#*.-).<5)<(x3-83,32mft"&[)(q:81' c-8sa532+,3?/ ( c-:=/+mo(w(j"\s)l'em"'"($m#*+"-*"m$.<*d)m$#$"'#n*e<)()',#*"+*h"#,3^)')+$,* I'.<6#$#(B3^q12.'K2/3732( c-0_=388my(j"\\zl'nk21<839:/+,n6+,/93+0/814@6:0/-+/<83v35381?93+0 *+,-_/012:](4#,.$'.C<)*d)/)<"=()',M518(CM+2("(G3:0@6::3kM`R'W1=+ Y6-83I( Moss, R. H., A. L. Brenkert, et al. (2001): Vulnerability to climate change. A quantitative approach. Prepared for the US Department of Energy. Springfield: National Technical Information Service. ct8832mn(mh36?380mc(j23,(lj"\\[l'em"*,.-2),#]*2".<*+4'm,$"'#]*.'5*"-$)',"-#( B3^q12.'@?2-+732( BcPJ"\\CL'1"-5$#&)*J$<>%$'5$&.,"-)-(aA2-+7:60./:0(RA<3+=/5+'B12,-:. c-+-:0322;,( NOU 2001:31 Når ulykken er ute. Om organiseringen av operative rednings- og beredskapsressurser. Oslo: Statens forvaltningstjeneste. BU::MH(Q(J4120=_19-+7L'QB)*-"<)*"+*$'#,$,4,$"'#*+"-*.5.=,.,$"'*,"*M<$(.,)* MB.'2)N*L$,)-.,4-)*-)/$)O*.'5*.*+-.()O"-&*+"-*.'.<6#$#]*O$,B*=.-,$M4<.-*-)+)-)'M)*,"*1"-O.6(N1238A?-76?6<8-:320/ ,32?21:S3.030]D8-9/03D=/+73-+ B12^/I'E+E+/8I:-:14O_1+19-_/+,@1_-/8*9?/_0:/+,E,/?0/0-1+:]M D*DOPQ( 127

128 O Brien, K., G. Aandahl, G. Orderud og B. Sæther (2003): Sårbarhetskartlegging et utgangspunkt for klimadialog. T<.'N*Q$5##&-$+,*+"-*.(+4''#=<.'<)22$'2]* C6=<.'*"2*-)2$"'.<*4,/$&<$'2MJ#L'")T"s( QODVJ"\\CL'E'/$-"'()',.<*$'5$M.,"-#(QODV_123:30(K/2-:'QODV J)%%)L'M)'.-$"#*"+*.''4.<*.'5*#).#"'.<*-4'"++*+"-*1"-O.6*C.#)5*"'*M<$(.,)* #M)'.-$"#*+"-*:aXa3Y9(930(+1P3?120"\$%)RH*cE(Q:81'930(+1 )R,-)()*=-)M$=$,.,$"'*"+*54-.,$"'*8*.'5*Z*5.6#*+"-*1"-O.6*M.4#)5*C6*M<$(.,)* _=/+73'E0I?1817Ii(J$,$2.,$"'*.'5*I5.=,.,$"'*,-.,)2$)#*+"-*A<"C.<)*HB.'2)M JQ??: :2/??12042/.8-9/:39-+/2-Q:81M&%(T&"(1.01<32)%%%(L( D*DOPQT2/??120)%%"'"(Q:81'D*DOPQ$`-Q X3:08/+,:412:.+-+7( X3:08/+,:412:.-+7( F1532A,J"\\\L'I-).<C-4&*"2*#$&-$'2*$*+<"(4,#.,,)*"(-75)-(P30+-+7:8-+S32 "$"\\\(Q:81'BXO Turner, R.K. (ed.) (1993): Sustainable Environmental Economics and Management. Principles and Practice. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, UK. XU2-+7:0/,MP(O(17O(W(NA28/+,J)%%)L'M)'.-$"#*"+*.''4.<*.'5*#).#"'.<* "%T)%%)M930(+1P3?120"\$%)RH*cE(Q:81'BXO K.=="-,*+-.*#.(.-C)$5#=-"#>)&,*()<<"(*&"((4')')*d-.(()']*P<)#C)-2]*L$)-]* 128

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