Arne Bjørlykke Seminar 5 okt.- 06 Geologi for Samfunnet Geohazard ekspertise i Norge og internasjonalt utfordringer

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1 Arne Bjørlykke Seminar 5 okt.- 06 Geologi for Samfunnet Geohazard ekspertise i Norge og internasjonalt utfordringer Oddvar Kjekstad

2 Geohazards, hva legger vi i det? Hendelser forårsaket av geologiske forhold eller prosesser som representerer alvårlige trusler for mennesker, eiendom/infrastrukur eller naturen På land Skred Jordskjelv Vulkaner Flom Offshore Undervannssked Tsunami Mud vulkaner Grunn gass

3 Våre nasjonale Geohazard problemer 200 m m 3

4 Naturkatasrofer i Mellom Amerika The Casita slide Hurrican Mitch, Nicaragua1998 Venezuela Rainfall, Earthquake El Salvador Jan Haiti May Guatamala 2005, Hurrican Stan

5 Naturkatastrofer i Asia vbam Earthquake, Iran 2003 M - a The Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 Pakistan 2005 Earthquake Leyte, Phillines March 2006 Utradit, Northern Thailand, May 2006

6 Natural Disaster Mitigation Contribution from Norway Risk Identification and Assessment Landslides, flooding, earthquakes and tsunami Risk Reduction Preventive measures, early warning, physical measures, building regulations, awarness Training and Capacity Building/Development Institutional co-operation

7 Naturskade Eksempler på norske prosjekter Norway / Sweden El Salvador Canada Caribbean UK Caucasus Tajikstan Kazakhstan Nepal Bhutan Pakistan Hong Kong India Thailand Nicaragua Central America Venezuela Sri Lanka Ethiopia Malaysia Indonesia Madagascar

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9 Bhutan, et fjell land med mange utfordringer

10 Mange hovedveier blir vanskelig fremkommelig på grunn av skred i monsoon perioden

11 Vi undersøker om bruk av veitunneler er løsningen på skredproblemene

12 Alt arbeid i Bhutan gjøres i tett samarbeid med de lokale ingeniørene/geologene

13 Lokalisering av nye skoler/sykehus i områder som ikke kan rammes av flom eller skred vil være en del av prosjekt Fase 3

14 The Nicaragua Project Identification of the most landslide prone areas in 4 volcano slopes Pilot project on early warning based on rainfall measurements Capacity building within INETER

15 Threshold values for rainfall that triggers landslides Challenges: Deforestation Urbanization More extreme weather

16 4-Year Central America Training Program Management of Risks Caused by Landslides Regional initiative, 6 countries 25 middle managers trained one week annually for 4 years. Focus on practical aspects in landslide mitigation, best practice for hazard/risk mapping Implementing landslide mitigation demonstration projects in 3 countries Yearly Dissemination Seminar, participants

17 Global Landslide Hazard

18 Tsunami Risk Mitigation Strategy for Thailand Seminar in Phuket February 2006

19 Elements in the project Determine causes and consequences of Dec event Establish future earthquake and tsunami-generating scenarios and their return periods (hazard) Model future tsunamis and their inundation levels Assess future risk to human life and acceptance criteria Recommend risk mitigation measures Ensure local involvement and dissemination of results

20 Conclusions from risk assessment Within next years maximum credible earthquake affecting Thailand is M 8.5 giving inundation level +2.5 to +3.0 at high tide. Such tsunamis will give small consequences in Thailand No immediate mitigation measures strictly necessary, but increased public awareness is desirable

21 Conclusions from risk evaluation In the Long term ( years) the probability of occurrence of a major tsunami will increase gradually with time. If no risk mitigation measures are taken, the societal risk due to a major tsunami will be unacceptably high after about years, approaching catastrophic levels in years. Mitigation measures are needed to reduce long term risks

22 The Oil and Gas Industry

23 Failure scenarios Ormen Lange

24 Oil and gas related geohazard projects

25 Noen konklusjoner 1. Norge hevder seg bra internasjonalt innenfor gehohazard feltet. 2. Erfaringene hjemme er en god plattform 3. Vi har et godt grep både på kunnskapsutvikling og på praktisk anvendelse. 4. Etableringen av International Centre for Geohazards(ICG), en vesentlig inspirasjonskilde. 5. Vi klarer å samabeide (NGU, NTNU, NORSAR, UiO og NGI). 6. Tilfanget av nye internasjonale oppgaver er sterkt økende