Péter Bakonyi VITUKI

Transkript

1 Péter Bakonyi VITUKI

2 Outline EU vs. Hungarian requirements Hungarian approach Preliminary flood hazard maps Flood hazard mapping Large rivers Small rivers Excess water What s next? Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 2

3 EU vs. Hungarian requirements EU requirements Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood hazard maps Flood risk maps Flood risk management plans Hungarian requirements Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood hazard maps Flood risk maps Proper risk analysis Flood risk management plans Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 3

4 EU vs. Hungarian requirements EU requirements Flood extent Water depth or level Flow velocity Indicative No of inhabitants Economic activity affected Any other information Hungarian requirements Flood extent Water depth or level Flow velocity Duration Territorial distribution of inhabitants Territorial distribution of economic activity affected Any other information Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 4

5 EU vs. Hungarian requirements EU requirements Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood hazard maps Flood risk maps Flood risk management plans Hungarian requirements Preliminary flood risk assessment Flood hazard maps Flood risk maps Proper risk analysis Flood risk management plans Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 5

6 Large river Small rivers Excess water Dykes Breaches Inundation No dykes No breaches Inundation Precipitation Not drained or Inproperly drained Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 6

7 Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 7

8 Q(t) Statistical analysis Q(t) Rainfall-runoff models Precipitation generator Breach Inundation Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 8

9 Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 9

10 Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 10

11 Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 11

12 Két eltérı csapadékmezı hatására kialakuló hidrológiai helyzet a Sajó-Hernád és a Bodrog vízgyőjtıjén Árvízi veszélytérképek készítésének módszertana 12

13 Árvízi veszélytérképek készítésének módszertana 13

14 Flood hazard mapping large rivers Flood wave transformation Simple DLCM 1D hydrodynamic model (HEC-RAS) Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 14

15 Flood hazard mapping large rivers Flood wave transformation 2D hydrodynamic model (BUT) Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 15

16 Flood hazard T flood [h] h max [m] v max [m/s] low 8 < T h < 1 v <0.5 medium 1 < T < 8 1 < h < < v < 1 high T < 1 3 < h 1 < v Flood arrival time

17 Flood hazard T flood [h] h max [m] v max [m/s] low 8 < T h < 1 v <0.5 medium 1 < T < 8 1 < h < < v < 1 high T < 1 3 < h 1 < v Flood depth

18 Flood hazard T flood [h] h max [m] v max [m/s] low 8 < T h < 1 v <0.5 medium 1 < T < 8 1 < h < < v < 1 high T < 1 3 < h 1 < v Flow velocity

19 Flood hazard T flood [h] h max [m] v max [m/s] low 8 < T h < 1 v <0.5 medium 1 < T < 8 1 < h < < v < 1 high T < 1 3 < h 1 < v Based on the highest local source of hazard

20 Q(t) Statistical analysis Q(t) Rainfall-runoff models Precipitation generator Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 20

21 Flood hazard mapping small rivers Simplified method Statistical analysis of measures runoff Regional coefficient of maximum runoff (Kóris method) Chézy or Bernoulli Detailed analysis Passive factors (relief and land cover) Rainfall-runoff 1D modelling (HEC-RAS) Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 21

22 Flood hazard mapping small rivers - detailed analysis Databases and programs needed 10*10m DTM 1*1m DTM along streams CORINE land cover Soil map ArcGIS/ArcView 9.1 or newer HEC-GeoRAS HEC-GeoHMS Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 22

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25 Flood hazard mapping excess waters Goals Territorial delineation of inundated area (w. probability) Analysis of the efficiency of excess water management options Analysis of the efficiency of operation and development of structures Future effects (climate change) Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 25

26 Flood hazard mapping excess waters Sources Precipitation (duration, intensity, return period) High groundwater level, frost, impermeable soil Floods in rivers (duration) Reliefs Land cover Meteorology Maintenance of drainage structures Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 26

27 Flood hazard mapping excess waters Pathways Runoff Infiltration Evapotranspiration Groundwater flow Structures Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 27

28 Excess water extent after a 4 days (30mm/d) snowmelt 4napos (30mm/d) hóolvadás utáni belvízi helyzet

29 Zsilip,max. 5m3/s 2 m3/s Karcsa felé 2. Zsilip,max. 2m3/s 1 Tájhasználathoz kapcsolódó osztótöltés vápa 5 m3/s vízpótlás Tiszából Bodrogköz, Cigánd -Reservoir

30 Phases of drainage (t=0 day; V=15.37 million m 3 )

31 Phases of drainage (t=0.44 days; V=15.37 million m 3 )

32 Phases of drainage (t=4.14 days; V=15.27 million m 3 )

33 Phases of drainage (t=5.99 days; V=15.15 million m 3 )

34 Phases of drainage (t=13.21 days; V=14.99 million m 3 )

35 What s next? Development of methodologies Description of methodologies 3*3 pilot areas Transfer of methodologies to the Regional Environmental and Water Management Directorates Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 35

36 Meeting of flood protection experts of V 4 countries 36