Forventet prisutvikling for kraft- og elsertifikatmarkedet, kort og lang horisont

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1 Forventet prisutvikling for kraft- og elsertifikatmarkedet, kort og lang horisont Kraftdagen 2015, Bodø, 12. November 2015 A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 1

2 Changed Nordic Power Balance Major changes last 4 years with lower consumption and increased renewable production. Changes from 2010 to 2014: Wind: +17 TWh Hydro: +6 TWh Nuclear: +8 TWh Consumption: 0 TWh. Nearly 30 TWh change in 4 years! Nearly same situation in Germany: Wind +18 TWh, Solar +11 TWh, Consumption -27 TWh Wednesday, 06. November

3 Expected Nordic Power Balance Consumption +8 TWh Nuclear +5 TWh Hydro +3 TWh Wind +8 TWh Bio/CHP + 5 TWh Power balance increases 13 TWh compared to 2014 Expected need for 15 TWh export, assuming average weather: Russian import 4 TWh Export to Estonia, Poland, Lithuania 14 TWh Export to Netherlands: 4 TWh Export to Germany: 1 TWh Wednesday, 06. November

4 Endringer i kull og EUAs nov nov. 15 Kull for levering 2016 gikk fra 71 til 46 $/t, mest pga. Kinas fallende kull-import EUA-ene gikk opp 2 /t, pga. EUs politiske inngrep med Market Stability Reserve Euro falt med ca. 13% mot dollar Nettovirkning: Kullkraft har blitt 3.5 /MWh billigere å kjøre Wednesday, 06. November

5 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 5 Dramatiske endringer i kullmarkedet Kinesisk import av kull: Var verdens største importør i , men 40% fall i 2015 importvolum og mer fall i sikte Indisk prognose for kull-import: Skulle bli verdens største importør, men har falt 13% i år og mer fall i sikte Selvkost for kull har falt 10-20%, pga. rimeligere diesel (nest viktigste innsatsfaktor), fall i valutakurser, og kostnadskutt. Lønnskutt i vente (lønn er viktigste innsatsfaktor)? Kullutvinning må reduseres: Kutt foretatt, mere i vente i USA, Australia, Indonesia, via gruvenedleggelser og noen konkurser

6 Lowered German and Dutch long term spot price expectations (2015)/MWh Assumed German power forward curve, excl. additions from a possible capacity market (2015)/MWh Assumed Dutch power forward curve, excl. additions from a possible capacity market German power price curve June 2015 German power price curve Sept Dutch power price curve June 2015 Dutch power price curve Sept 2015

7 Lowered UK and Russian long term spot price expectations (2015)/MWh Assumed UK power forward curve, excl. additions from capacity market (2015)/MWh Assumed Russian power forward curve (incl. capacity market prices) UK power price curve June 2015 UK power price curve Sept 2015 Russian power price June 2015 Russian power price Sept 2015

8 Wednesday, 06. November Nordic Hydrological Balance 18. nov in TWh deviation from average levels End of Reservoir Snow/Groundwater Total Week Norway Sweden Norway Sweden Hyd bal 45 2,2-1,1-2,3-1,0-2,2 46 2,6-0,7-4,1-2,1-4,3 47 2,0-0,4-5,2-3,7-7,3 48 1,2 0,0-6,3-4,7-9,8 49 0,3 0,2-6,3-4,8-10,6

9 Precipitation Norway/Sweden Summer months (May-Aug) One of the highest in more than 80 years: Surplus 13 TWh

10 MKOnline NP Price expectations 18. November 2014 Product Forecast Delivery period MK M-Market Market Diff Forecast 18.nov Market Tue ,8 MDEC-14 34,8 33,4 1,4 MJAN-15 36,5 35,1 1,4 MFEB-15 37,2 35,6 1,6 MMAR-15 34,4 33,3 1,2 MAPR-15 33,4 32,4 1,0 MMAY-15 32,2 30,1 2,1 Q ,0 34,7 1,4 Q ,9 31,1 0,8 Q ,3 29,9 0,5 Q ,9 34,2-1,2 YR-15 32,7 32,5 0,3 YR-16 31,4 31,5-0,1 YR-17 30,1 30,4-0,3 YR-18* 31,6 29,9 1,7 YR-19* 30,2 30,6-0,4 EUR Leveringspriser: Q1-15: 28.4 /MWh Q2-15: 20.9 /MWh Q3-15: 13.3 /MWh Q4-15: 24.7 /MWh (prognose) Yr-16: 22.3 /MWh (marked) Wednesday, 06. November

11 Nordic Hydrological Balance 11. nov in TWh deviation from average levels Wednesday, 06. November

12 Wednesday, 06. November Nordic Hydrological Balance TWh Hydrological balance compared to statistics Hydr.bal Prognosis Hydr.bal % 95% Week

13 Reservoir Norway The hydro reservoir level is on a strong downward trend. High production and strong exports support the downward trend, but we still see a high reservoir level This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 13

14 Reservoir Sweden Reservoir level s expected to fall a lot the next couple of weeks, and this will help to gain more control in the hydro system. There is still a high level compared to normal. This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 14

15 Sunday, 08. November Svensk kjernekraft: Oskarshamn 2 er nå ute for alltid (MW) Available Nuclear Power Sweden Plan 2015 Plan Week 1000 Installed capacity

16 MKOnline NP Price expectations 11. November 2015 Forecast Delivery period Product MK Coal M-Market Market Diff SRMC Forecast 11.nov Market 10.nov MDEC-15 26,0 24,8 1,2 29,1 MJAN-16 28,0 26,0 2,0 28,7 MFEB-16 29,6 26,3 3,3 28,6 MMAR-16 27,0 22,3 4,7 28,9 MAPR-16 26,4 21,5 4,9 29,3 MMAY-16 25,7 18,9 6,8 28,9 Q ,2 24,6 3,6 28,3 Q ,6 19,1 6,5 27,6 Q ,0 17,9 6,2 27,5 Q ,9 23,3 4,6 27,5 YR-16 26,4 21,2 5,3 27,7 YR-17 27,2 21,8 5,4 27,7 Wednesday, 06. November

17 NP Price percentiles 11. november 2015 in /MWh Product NP Eltermin 5 % 10 % 20 % 35 % 50 % 65 % 80 % 90 % 95 % Average 10.nov W48 22,5 23,4 24,4 25,2 26,1 27,1 27,9 29,4 30,2 26,2 24,9 MDEC-15 21,3 22,4 23,4 24,6 25,4 26,6 27,6 29,3 30,9 25,6 24,9 MJAN-16 20,9 22,2 23,8 25,9 27,5 29,1 31,3 34,2 35,2 27,7 26,0 MFEB-16 18,6 20,5 23,6 26,3 29,2 32,2 35,4 38,4 41,8 29,5 26,6 Q ,2 20,3 22,6 25,3 28,0 30,6 33,6 36,7 39,3 28,2 24,8 Q ,2 16,7 19,8 23,2 26,1 28,4 32,2 36,0 37,9 25,7 19,3 Q ,6 15,4 18,2 21,7 24,5 27,1 28,9 32,9 34,4 24,0 18,1 Q ,8 21,2 23,0 25,4 27,6 29,5 31,4 35,4 39,1 27,9 23,7 YR-16 16,2 18,4 20,9 23,9 26,5 28,9 31,5 35,2 37,7 26,5 21,4 YR-17 16,2 18,2 21,4 24,2 26,8 29,3 32,7 36,4 39,4 27,2 22,2 YR-18 16,2 18,1 21,5 24,4 26,9 29,4 32,8 36,6 39,4 27,3 22,2 YR-19 15,3 17,3 20,7 23,7 26,1 28,7 31,8 35,4 38,0 26,4 22,5

18 NP Area Price expectations 11. November 2015 in /MWh Product NP Elterm MK Syst Oslo Tr. heim Tromsø Bergen Luleå NO1 NO3 NO4 NO5 SE1 10. nov. MDEC-15 24,9 25,6 26, ,2 25,8 22,1 Q ,8 28,2 28,0 25,7 24,9 27,5 25,2 Q ,3 25,7 24,1 25,0 24,4 24,1 25,8 Q ,1 24,0 21,6 25,0 24,8 21,6 24,6 Q ,7 27,9 27,3 27,0 26,3 27,0 26,6 Q ,9 31,2 31,6 31,4 29,4 31,1 29,6 YR-16 21,4 26,5 25,2 25,7 25,1 25,0 25,6 YR-17 22,2 27,2 26,8 27,1 26,2 26,6 26,4 YR-18 22,2 27,3 27,0 27,0 26,2 26,9 26,7 YR-19 22,5 26,4 26,8 26,7 25,7 26,5 26,1

19 Langsiktige kraftpris-prognoser for Norden A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 19

20 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 20 Fokus i vår LTP September rapport Svekket vekst i kinesisk økonomi: Innvirkning på økonomisk vekst og kraftmarkeder i Europa, sistnevnte mest via kullmarkedet Fall i oljepris virker inn på økonomisk og industriell vekst i Europa, samt på utslipp av CO2, selvkost på kullgruver Reaktor-nedleggelser i Sverige: Oskarshamn 2 legges ned, i tillegg til Oskarshamn 1 og Ringhals 1&2 (som tidligere var inkl. i våre antagelser) Kraftforbruksprognoser for nordiske land justert opp for elektrifisering av transportsektor og etablering av datasentre

21 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 21 Endringer etter vår LTP September Kinesisk økonomi: dypere endringer enn tidligere antatt, overgang fra tung industri/urbanisering/fabrikketablinger mot forbrukersamfunn, strengere miljøpolitikk, mer fall i stål/aluminium. Virker mer inn på resten av globale vekstprognoser enn tidligere antatt Indisk prognose for kull-import: Redusert kraftig, siden egen kullutvinning lykkes stadig bedre, selvforsyning av kull er målet Nedleggelser av brunkull-kraft i Tyskland: I tillegg til reaktornedleggelser i Tyskland, Frankrike, Belgia og en del andre land Økt immigrasjon: skaper en mindre økning i kraftforbruk i Norge, Sverige, Tyskland og andre land

22 22 MK Coal price scenarios September 2015 Coal price development applied in our analysis, ref. CIF ARA $(2015)/ ton High Sept '15 Base Sept '15 Low Sept '15 Base June'15 Base prognosis based on Perret Associates «Long Term Price Forecast , August 2015 Reduced Chinese import demand for coal, counteracted by some supply cuts

23 Supply side expectations are altered [Mt CO2] Accumulated oversupply towards 2030 We now take into account a 40% ghg target in 2030, having implications for EUA supply towards Annual surplus of carbon credits Structural accumulated surplus of carbon credits Carbon credits in circulation, when MSR is implemented from 2019 and 1350 Mt of backloading volume/remaining New Entrants' EUAs are transferred to the reserve We expect the Market Stability Reserve to be implemented from 2021 If prices do not expect from recent levels, we expect the MSR will induce a scarcity of EUAs from 2026

24 24 Global LNG market: Supply capacity outlook Expected growth in capacity : 13.8 Bcf/d (28% up) Australia is doubling its 2015 capacity (+11.5 Bcf/d)

25 EUA price forecast [ /t] MK low scenario MK high scenario Prices will remain low for a few more years, before climbing slightly We expect EUAs at 10 /t as an average over the period If cement and steel do not recover towards 2020 from recent years output levels, carbon prices could drop towards 0-1 /t Base case scenario Market prices 28th of August 2015

26 Earlier Swedish nuclear decommissioning Our assumptions regarding Swedish nuclear capacity during : Up to 22 TWh/y reduction of generation, due to early decommissioning of Oskarshamn 1 (from 2022 to 2018) Oskarshamn 2 (from 2033 to 2018) new assumption Ringhals 1 (from 2025 to 2018) Ringhals 2 (from 2026 to 2019) Decommissioning of Ringhals 1 & 2: announcement from Vattenfall disclosed in early May 2015 Decommissioning of Oskarshamn 1 & 2: announcement from EON in late June 2015 to close reactors permanently as soon as possible This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 26

27 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 27 Consumption in all sectors reviewed Residential Nordic consumption: Adjusted 2 TWh/y upwards Nordic industry: Adjusted 1 TWh/y upwards (Norwegian power intensive, Swedish pulp & paper) Nordic data storage centers: 5 TWh/y in total in Nordic area in 2020, 8.5 TWh/y in 2030 (minor changes) Transportation sector: 4 TWh/y in 2020 and 10 TWh in 2030 ( estimates adjusted 3 TWh/y upwards) Total Nordic power consumption is, compared to previous edition, up 3.5 TWh/y for 2020, up 5 TWh/y for

28 Nordic power balance (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear *) Average for reference period: Wind power CHP bio elcert CHP others Thermal Consumption Balance ,5 83,0 10,3 7,3 49,4 20,9 401,3-30, ,3 72,2 11,1 9,0 46,5 23,9 379,6-16, ,9 77,2 13,4 11,7 52,4 28,2 393,6-8, ,6 79,8 17,2 9,1 47,2 21,0 389,5-11, ,1 82,9 19,5 8,2 41,9 13,3 392,8-19, ,2 84,7 23,4 7,9 41,5 21,3 389,6-2, ,7 85,6 28,5 9,0 37,3 17,7 390,2-2, ,6 82,0 31,6 9,7 45,9 13,8 393,7-0, ,1 91,7 33,8 10,3 46,5 13,2 395,3 11, ,5 92,2 37,4 10,8 48,0 11,4 397,8 14, ,4 88,6 42,1 11,1 48,8 9,4 400,6 13, ,7 94,4 45,7 11,4 49,3 7,5 402,0 22, ,1 89,1 50,9 11,4 49,8 6,6 403,0 21, ,4 89,1 52,5 11,5 50,6 6,2 404,3 23, ,7 89,1 54,2 11,6 51,1 5,8 405,5 24, ,1 89,1 55,2 11,8 51,8 5,4 406,5 24, ,4 89,1 56,1 12,0 52,3 4,8 407,6 25, ,7 98,7 57,0 12,2 52,8 4,4 408,7 35, ,0 98,7 57,8 12,4 53,3 4,1 409,7 35, ,3 98,7 59,3 12,6 53,8 3,9 410,6 37, ,7 94,7 59,9 12,8 54,3 3,7 411,5 33, ,0 90,7 61,4 13,0 54,8 3,6 412,6 30, ,3 90,7 62,9 13,2 55,3 3,5 413,6 32,3 onsdag, 25. november

29 onsdag, 25. november Norwegian power consumption (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Wind power CHP bio Thermal El boilers *) Average for reference period: Residential consumption Industry Central grid loss/pumping Total consumption ,8 1,0 0,0 1,2 3,9 84,2 39,4 3,8 131,2-7, ,5 1,1 0,0 3,5 4,0 80,4 36,0 3,2 123,5 3, ,4 1,1 0,0 3,6 3,6 82,6 37,8 2,2 126,2 1, ,6 1,2 0,0 3,4 3,2 82,0 37,2 3,7 126,2 3, ,9 1,6 0,0 2,2 3,6 84,2 37,7 4,1 129,6 2, ,9 2,0 0,0 3,3 3,7 84,9 38,9 3,0 130,5 3, ,2 2,2 0,0 3,4 3,3 85,1 40,2 3,7 132,3 3, ,7 2,3 0,0 3,5 3,4 86,9 40,5 3,9 134,7 1, ,0 2,3 0,0 3,5 3,4 86,5 41,4 3,7 135,0 1, ,2 3,0 0,0 3,5 3,5 87,2 41,9 3,7 136,3 2, ,9 3,7 0,1 3,2 3,4 87,7 43,1 3,7 137,9 3, ,9 4,4 0,2 3,0 3,2 88,2 43,2 3,7 138,4 4, ,0 4,7 0,2 2,5 3,0 88,7 43,4 3,7 138,8 4, ,2 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,9 89,1 43,6 3,7 139,3 4, ,4 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,8 89,6 43,7 3,7 139,8 4, ,6 4,7 0,2 2,5 2,7 90,0 43,8 3,7 140,2 3, ,8 4,7 0,2 2,3 2,6 90,4 43,8 3,7 140,6 3, ,0 4,7 0,2 2,1 2,5 90,9 43,9 3,7 141,0 3, ,2 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 91,4 43,9 3,7 141,5 2, ,4 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 91,9 43,9 3,7 142,0 2, ,6 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 92,4 43,9 3,7 142,5 2, ,8 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 93,1 43,8 3,7 143,1 1, ,0 4,7 0,2 2,0 2,5 93,7 43,8 3,7 143,7 1,2 Balance

30 onsdag, 25. november Swedish power balance (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear *) Average for reference period: Wind power* CHP bio CHP others Consumption* Balance ,0 61,1 2,2 7,3 6,6 146,9-4, ,2 49,7 3,0 9,0 6,0 139,5-6, ,7 55,4 4,1 11,7 6,3 144,3-1, ,0 57,6 5,7 9,1 6,2 142,6 2, ,1 61,0 7,4 8,2 6,2 143,7 5, ,1 62,1 9,4 7,9 6,2 141,0 10, ,3 63,1 11,4 9,0 6,0 140,7 15, ,5 59,4 12,8 9,7 5,8 141,8 12, ,6 69,4 13,5 10,3 5,5 142,2 23, ,7 69,8 14,9 10,8 5,5 142,7 25, ,8 60,3 16,8 11,0 5,5 143,1 17, ,0 53,3 18,5 11,2 5,5 143,5 12, ,2 48,0 19,4 11,2 5,5 143,8 7, ,2 48,0 19,4 11,3 5,5 144,0 7, ,2 48,0 19,4 11,4 5,5 144,2 7, ,3 48,0 19,5 11,6 5,5 144,4 7, ,3 48,0 19,6 11,8 5,5 144,6 7, ,3 48,0 19,7 12,0 5,5 144,7 7, ,3 48,0 19,9 12,2 5,5 144,8 8, ,3 48,0 20,1 12,4 5,5 145,0 8, ,4 48,0 20,3 12,6 5,5 145,1 8, ,4 48,0 20,5 12,8 5,5 145,2 9, ,4 48,0 20,7 13,0 5,5 145,3 9,3

31 onsdag, 25. november Finnish power balance (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* Nuclear Wind power* CHP Thermal Consumption* Balance ,7 21,9 0,3 26,3 8,8 87,2-17, ,6 22,5 0,3 24,6 8,8 81,3-12, ,8 21,8 0,3 28,0 14,1 87,7-10, ,0 22,2 0,5 25,4 9,7 85,9-15, ,1 21,9 0,5 23,1 5,1 85,1-21, ,2 22,6 0,8 23,8 8,1 84,5-16, ,2 22,5 2,4 21,3 7,3 83,6-16, ,4 22,6 3,5 25,1 5,7 83,9-13, ,5 22,3 4,4 26,7 5,1 84,5-12, ,6 22,4 5,4 27,5 4,5 85,0-11, ,7 22,4 6,7 28,3 3,2 85,2-10, ,8 35,3 7,0 28,7 2,0 85,4 1, ,9 35,4 7,4 28,8 1,8 85,2 2, ,0 35,4 7,8 29,3 1,6 85,5 2, ,1 35,4 8,2 29,5 1,4 85,7 2, ,2 35,4 8,6 29,8 1,2 85,8 3, ,3 35,4 9,0 30,1 1,0 85,9 3, ,4 45,0 9,4 30,4 1,0 86,0 14, ,5 45,0 9,5 30,7 1,0 86,0 14, ,6 45,0 9,5 31,0 1,0 86,1 15, ,7 41,0 9,5 31,3 1,0 86,1 11, ,8 37,0 9,5 31,6 1,0 86,2 7, ,9 37,0 9,5 31,9 1,0 86,3 8,0 *) Average for reference period:

32 Infrastructure main Nordic grid Year Internal links Capacity (MW) 2015 Norway-Jutland SouthWest-link Swe Ørskog-Fardal Finland-Sweden 500/ Jutland-Zealand 600 Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2016 Sweden-Lithuania Jutland-Germany Jutland-Netherlands Norway-Germany Norway-UK Norway-UK Sweden-Germany Zealand-Germany Jutland-UK onsdag, 25. november

33 Simulated power flow from Nordic area in [TWh/year] Net annual exchange from Norway to Germany/UK/Netherlands Cable links external Annual Power flow (TWh) Finland-Estonia/Russia 6.5 Sweden-Lithuania 4.0 DK-Germany 1.5 Norway-Germany 0.5 Sweden-Germany 0.5 DK-Netherlands 3.0 Norway-UK 9.5 Norway-Netherlands 1.5 Sweden-Poland 1.0 Total 28.0 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 33

34 onsdag, 25. november Nordic Power price scenarios : Markedskrafts three latest base scenario calculations (2015)/MWh Price development in the base scenario, compared to previous editions Base 2015 Sept Base 2015 June Base 2015 March

35 onsdag, 25. november Nordic Power price scenarios : Markedskrafts three price scenarios of September 2015 Forecasted Nordic spot price of base load power, in real 2015 euros (2015)/MWh "High 2015" Sept "Base 2015" Sept "Low 2015" Sept

36 onsdag, 25. november Nordic Power price scenarios : Markedskrafts Power Prices versus SRMC coal /MWh Forecasted Nordic power price (annual average) and costs of coal fired generation (SRMC) Coal-fired costs Simulated prices

37 Simulated Nordic Area prices. Base scenario Area Prices in the base scenario [2015 /MWh]. September 2015 edition Year System Oslo Krsand Bergen Tr.heim Tromso SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 Finland Jutland Zealand ,0 21,0 21,0 20,9 21,8 21,4 21,5 21,5 22,2 23,0 29,6 23,0 24, ,9 24,8 24,6 24,6 25,8 25,1 25,3 25,5 26,2 26,7 29,8 26,6 27, ,6 26,3 26,1 26,1 26,6 25,9 26,0 26,1 26,6 27,0 29,0 26,8 27, ,7 28,2 28,0 28,1 28,2 27,5 28,2 28,3 28,9 29,3 30,2 29,0 30, ,1 28,1 27,7 27,7 27,6 27,0 28,0 28,0 28,5 28,1 28,1 28,9 29, ,1 28,7 28,6 28,6 28,9 28,3 29,0 29,1 29,1 29,1 29,2 30,3 30, ,4 30,2 30,2 30,2 30,3 29,5 30,2 30,3 30,3 30,3 30,4 31,0 31, ,7 30,6 30,6 30,6 30,8 30,0 30,7 30,7 30,7 30,8 30,8 31,2 31, ,1 31,0 31,0 31,0 31,1 30,3 31,0 31,1 31,1 31,1 31,1 31,8 32, ,0 32,1 32,1 32,1 32,2 31,1 31,8 31,9 31,9 31,9 31,9 32,2 32, ,8 32,2 32,3 32,3 32,4 31,1 31,5 31,5 31,6 31,6 31,4 32,1 32, ,8 32,2 32,3 32,3 32,4 31,0 31,4 31,4 31,5 31,5 31,4 32,3 32, ,0 32,4 32,5 32,5 32,6 31,1 31,6 31,6 31,6 31,7 31,5 32,5 32, ,1 32,6 32,6 32,6 32,7 31,2 31,7 31,7 31,8 31,8 31,7 32,6 32,5 Area price differences are reduced significantly, due to earlier nuclear decommissioning onsdag, 25. november

38 Situasjonen pr 11. november, markedspriser vs. våre analyser Markedet har ikke priset inn fire svenske reaktorers utfasing og flere nye Forecast Delivery period Product MK Coal M-Market Market Diff SRMC Forecast 11.nov Market 10.nov YR-16 26,4 21,2 5,3 27,7 YR-17 27,2 21,8 5,4 27,7 YR-18 27,3 21,9 5,4 27,8 YR-19 26,4 22,1 4,3 27,8 YR-20* 26,9 23,0 3,9 27,9 utenlandsforbindelser som kommer med stor eksport Markedet farget av lang periode med vått, vindfullt og mildt vær Over-representasjon av selgere, bla. av ny fornybar kraft (med hedging-krav fra banker), mer hedging blant produsenter enn blant forbrukere Men: Fortsatt risiko for mere lavtrykks-perioder, mere fall i kull, fall i EUAs (som følge av svak industrivekst og fallende gass-priser) onsdag, 25. november

39 El-sertifikat, status og perspektiver A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 39

40 Tirsdag, 13. januar Elcert: Accumulated balance now

41 Wednesday, 06. November Kvote-kurver for Norge og Sverige 62 65% av totalt konsum er pliktig til å kjøpe elsertifikater Kraftintensiv industri ca. 25% og tap i overføringer ca. 10%, er unntatt fra elsertifikater Alle konsumenter som er pliktig til å kjøpe elsertifikater, må kjøpe sertifikater etter en årlig prosentsats som vist i tabellen Kvotekurven gjelder fra januar Neste justering: januar 2018 Nye kvotekurver for Norge og Sverige Year Sweden Norway Akk. Vol ,3 % 8,8 % 11, ,0 % 9,2 % 7, ,6 % 11,0 % 5, ,2 % 12,8 % 4, ,6 % 14,5 % 4, ,6 % 17,0 % 3, ,0 % 17,0 % 3, ,5 % 16,9 % 3, ,2 % 16,9 % 3, ,5 % 16,8 % 3, ,4 % 16,7 % 3, ,1 % 15,8 % 3, ,0 % 14,6 % 3, ,4 % 12,6 % 2, ,8 % 10,7 % 2, ,1 % 8,9 % 2, ,1 % 7,1 % 2, ,3 % 5,4 % 2, ,7 % 3,6 % 1, ,1 % 1,8 % 0, ,3 % 0,9 % 0,0

42 Wednesday, 06. November Elcert prices for Norway/Sweden Short term: Weather-related and other rapid changes in fundamental balance in elcert market. Expectations now: /MWh Mid term: Changes in renewable capacity, changes in quota curves, changes in «control station». Expectations now ( ): /MWh (base scenario) Long term: Costs for new capacity to fulfil the 28.4 TWh goal. See next slide. Expectations now: SEK/MWh (base scenario)

43 Income prognosis for elcert projects Updated 14th of September 2015 Nordic Assuming LCoE Total income Real Euro Power price windpower= 55 /MWh green projects Year Base forecast Elcert base forecast power+elcert

44 Income prognosis for elcert projects MK-Base Prognosis, 15th of September Income in real /MWh Nordic Assuming LRMC Total income Real Euro Power price windpower= 55 /MWh green projects Year Base forecast Elcert base forecast power+elcert

45 Elcert market End of 2020, our «basis» prognosis assumes: Elcert-goal of 28.4 TWh: Exactly fulfilled LRMC for wind power /MWh, assumed unchanged until 2035 All investors follow normal behaviour In case of oversupply: Regulators may cancel more elcertificates to bring up prices Level of extra volumes to be cancelled can adjust elcert price levels In case of undersupply: Elcert-prices will generate investment signals, new capacity can be developed in Sweden after 2020 (but with less than 15 years of support) Wednesday, 06. November

46 Wind power costs a historical view In LRMC for wind power was /MWh In end 2014 LRMC for wind power was 55 /MWh, now 50 /MWh What happened on the way : Lower price for metals: steel Moving production of wind mills from Europe to China/Asia Technological development: Bigger wind mills, optimized wings, removal of gear-systems, industrialized building of wind parks Lower interest rates -> lower LRMC If this development do not stop: difficult to see higher elcert prices Our view: it has probably stopped now Wednesday, 06. November

47 Status elcert-prosjekter April 2015 (ikke-fullstendig) Status utbygd kapasitet: 10.7 TWh Svenske vindprosjekter på vei t.o.m. 2016: 2.5 TWh Fosen/Snillfjord: 3.5 TWh Bjerkreim: 1.6 TWh Ytre Vikna: 0.5 TWh Svensk biokraft TWh Norsk vannkraft, under bygging: 1.5 TWh Norsk vannkraft, forventes besluttet snart: 1.0 TWh Svenske vindprosjekter 2017-forventning: 1.5 TWh Sum: 24.3 TWh Nytt elcert-mål: 28.4 TWh De manglende 4 TWh vil fylles opp av svenske vindprosjekter og norske vannkraftprosjekter. Med forsterkede pris-signaler kan det bli 5-6 TWh til, hvis norske vindprosjekter skrinlegges Wednesday, 06. November

48 DnB elcert-project stress test Wednesday, 06. November

49 Vanskelige tider for elsert-systemet Wednesday, 06. November

50 This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 50 You have watched a presentation from MKonline Thank you for your attention Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com Espen Andreassen Senior Analyst, Continental Analysis ean@mkonline.com