Centre for environmental design of renewable energy - CEDREN.

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1 Centre for environmental design of renewable energy - CEDREN

2 CEDREN - Centre for environmental design of renewable energy 9 store forskningsprosjekter 7 norske forskningspartnere 16 brukerpartnere fra industri og 2 fra forvaltningen Budsjett: ca 360 MNOK (40 MNOK in 2015) 25 PhD og 6 Post-doc studenter Kobler teknologi, økonomi, miljø og samfunnsfag Fornybar energi på lag med naturen

3 Framtidas vannkraft

4 Hvor mye vann er nok? for vannkraft og økosystemet

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7 Økologi Hydrologi Med god kunnskap og tverrfaglig samarbeid er det mulig å finne gode løsninger Vi har nå et veletablert samarbeid mellom biologer, hydrologer og eksperter på kraftverksdrift Vannkraft

8 Utviklet for bruk i Norge med fokus på laksefisk Metodikk passer for andre miljøforhold også Stor internasjonal interesse Finnes på engelsk og kinesisk Kan lastes ned på:

9 Mandalsvassdraget Laudal kraftverk Konsesjon: 1977 I drift: 1981 Anadrom strekning: 48 km

10 I dag: 1.5 m 3 /s vinter og 3 m 3 /s sommer NVE: 6 m 3 /s vinter og 8-25 m 3 /s sommer 10

11 Redusere behov for minstevannføring Øke kraftproduksjonen Habitatforbedring: Terskelfjerning + øke antall gyteområder Øke lakseproduksjonen

12 Løsninger Terskelfjerning + øke antall gyteområder i samme anleggsfase 11 terskler X 20 (100 m 2 pr. stk.) 1 kunstig gyteplass (100 m 2 ) = TOTALT= Smoltproduksjonen som oppnås med prøvereglementet kan oppnås med mindre vannslipp Habitatforbedrende tiltak alene kan øke smoltproduksjonen tilsvarende vannslippet i prøvereglementet Kraftproduksjon økes med 12.5 GWh (~ )

13 CEDREN HydroBalance Balancing from hydropower feasibility check By: Research Manager Michael M. Belsnes & WP-leaders

14 Understanding possibilities Theoretical potential offshore wind TWh 2006: Oil & Gas: 2500 TWh/y Hydro power: 125 TWh/y Subsea Transmission Network The European energy market demands: - Renewable energy - Balancing Power 15

15 Integrating Northern and continental balancing markets Large benefits Source: Farahmand (NTNU/SINTEF) Total annual balancing cost savings (Mill.EURO) Detailed European grid model based on DC power flow. Representation of day-ahead, intra-day and balancing markets. Co-optimizing day-ahead schedules and reserve procurements based on forecasts 16

16 Significant additional savings are achieved with intra-day markets Total annual balancing cost savings Activated reserves Source: Aigner (NTNU) 17

17 Goldistal, Germany

18 Comparing LCOE for Norwegian Pumped Hydro and Gas Power Plants OCGT-1 OCGT-2 CCGT Pumped Hydro Statkraft LCOE [ /MWh] Increasing p pump Load Factor [%]

19 . even when grid and cable costs are included Statkraft OCGT-1 OCGT-2 CCGT Pumped Hydro LCOE [ /MWh] Load Factor [%]

20 Conclusion so far.. Interconnectors must be given full access to all markets, including capacity markets, for utilization of the most economical viable sources of storage and flexible power in Europe Tyin Aurland Sima Hol Nore Mauranger/Oksla/Tysso Tinnsjø Kvilldal Jøsenfjorden Holen Lysebotn Tonstad

21 Balancing from hydro: economic feasibility 1. How will hydropower be operated in the future? 2. How large share of the income will come from different markets? 3. Will investments in new pumped storage be profitable in Norway? 22

22 Case: Otra river system Together with Agder Energi Production capacity: 1.1 GW (14 plants) Storage capacity: 3.7 TWh (13 reservoirs) Annual production: 5 TWh ProdRisk input provided by Agder Energi

23 Pumped storage investment 1000 MW: extra generation capacity and pump Reservoirs: 15 days to empty/fill Total efficiency (pump x generation): 72.2 % (conservative, cf. Ibrahim 2007) Estimated total costs: 416 M (Henden, 2014)

24 Economic results (in M per year) Day-ahead only (Climate years ) German prices (Climate year 2008) Statistics Niche Storage Big Storage DA only Multimarket Average yearly income Additional operating profits Investment cost *) Investment profits *) Break even interest rate -0,5 % 4,5 % 6,6 % 31,1 % 38,8% *) With 5 % annual interest rate

25 Conclusions Variability in operation Increased with pumped storage (short term and during a year) Highest for multi-market strategy Traditional day/night trend is changed because of solar radiation Price-level is important for total income Price-variability (and therefore market participation) is important for profitability of pumped-storage investment Based on our study, environmental impacts in reservoirs will be studied further in HydroBalance 26

26 Balancing Moving demand = Moving generation 27

27 Balancing renewables with data centres 60 new large datacentres in Europe by 2020 Hamina (Finland 2011) peaked with 1800 working during construction, and have 230 people on site for operation 350 Mill invested in phase I and II Apple planned by 2017 Viborg m2 District heating, secure supply 99,997% One of two centres of total 1,7 Bill GreenCloud, Iceland (Foto: Apple) Source: ZDNet and and

28 Balancing renewables with data centres Enablers and barriers Infrastructure for power and data Secure supply of power Technical solutions and cost Speed of load-change? Cooling (up to 40% of energy cost) District heating possibilities, fishfarming Juridical "Finland the Switzerland of data"

29 Balancing renewables with data centres - business Coordination in time low load in high price hours by moving intensive calculations Coordination in space move data not energy between geographical locations Participating in several markets Excess energy from cooling Investment cost Expected savings Green profile Data center location Energy cost 100 MW/hour 2008 prices Moving demand 100% Norway 40,67 M /year 2,77 M /year Germany 57,76 M /year 19,72 M /year

30 Balancing renewables with data centres - technical Demand response of a data center, how fast and how much Low load threshold Distribution of energy use in a data center Technical constraints when mirroring data Scalability, exponential need for storage Data control and energy control systems

31 How to proceed? Economic feasibility Is it possible to construct a competitive business model Revenues and operation based on future expected market prices Technical feasibility Finding the technical attractive solution Synergies with other businesses Fosen Vind versus Agder Energi Farming Heating

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