Klimaendringer på Svalbard 1900-2100 Eirik J. Førland, met.no NGFs Geilo-Symposium, sept-2011
Tidlig forskningsaktivitet på Svalbard Vitenskapelige ekspedisjoner i det 16de og 17de århundret;- med bl.a.lufttrykks-målinger i midten av det 17de århundret Overvintring i det internasjonale Polar Året 1882/83 Kapp Thordsen, svenskehuset Målinger utført av norske fangstfolk i perioden i perioden 1898-1915. De ble utstyrt med instrumenter fra Meteorologisk Institutt
Overvintrende fangstfolk utstyrt med instrumenter fra Meteorologisk Institutt
The first regular meteorological measurement site at Svalbard: Finneset in Grønfjorden Finneset at Grønfjorden, Svalbard Radio ca. 1920. The station was in operation from december 1911 Picture from NPI
Meteorologiske stasjoner i Svalbard-regionen Stnr Navn I drift fra Hoh (m) TX 18.8.2011 99710 BJØRNØYA 1920 16 10,3 99720 HOPEN 1944 6 6,9 99735 EDGEØYA - KAPP HEUGLIN 1992 14 7,3 99737 SVARTTANGEN 2004 20 10,5 99740 KONGSØYA 2010 20 3,4 99752 SØRKAPPØYA 2008 10 5,5 99754 HORNSUND 1985 10 11,2 99760 SVEAGRUVA 1978 9 11,4 99765 AKSELØYA (1898) 6 13,5 99840 SVALBARD LUFTHAVN 1975 28 17,0 99910 NY-ÅLESUND 1974 8 13,2 99927 VERLEGENHUKEN 1997 8 9,1 99790 Isfjord Radio 1934-76 5 99820 Barentsburg 1933-? 99860 Longyearbyen 1916-77 37 99900 Ny-Ålesund-I 1969-74 42 xxxx Pyramiden 2011 xx
Temperatur ( C) Anual temperature at Svalbard 1912-1925 -2 Årsmiddel -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 The temperature development during the first years of measurements at Svalbard might lead to dramatic conclusions
T, grader C Annual mean temperature ( o C) Svalbard Airp/Longyearbyen 2011 hittil Δ=+2.7C Årstemp~-3.9C 0 2009: -3.7degC 2010: -4.1 degc -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 +0.24 o C/decade OBS filt 1 filt 2 Trend -14 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Seasonal temperature ( o C) Svalbard Lufthavn-Longyearbyen -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16 Winter 8 6 4 Summer -18-20 -22 (+0.25 o C/dec) -24 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Spring -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 -14-16 -18 +0.45 o C/dec -20 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2 +0.11 o C/dec 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Autunm +0.17 o C/dec -12 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
T, Deg. C Annual mean temperature, Arctic stations 2 0-2 -4-6 Ny-Ålesund Svalb-Airp/L Bar Isfjord-R Hopen Bjørnøya Jan Mayen -8-10 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Linear temperature trends, o C per decade, sign. 5% level: bold Location Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn 1969 2010 Ny-Ålesund +0.53 +1.02 +0.56 +0.19 +0.43 1912 2010 Svalbard A. +0.24 +0.25 +0.45 +0.11 +0.17 1946 2010 Hopen +0.29 +0.33 +0.42 +0.23 +0.20 1920 2010 Bjørnøya +0.10-0.02 +0.27 +0.08 +0.05 Location Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn 1966-1988 Svalbard A. +0.52 +0.72 +0.96 +0.26 +0.48 Hopen +0.26 +0.00 +0.49 +0.23 +0.57 Bjørnøya +0.34 +0.53 +0.71 +0.19 +0.36 1989-2011 Ny-Ålesund +0.92 +2.90 +0.35 +0.42 +0.64 Svalbard A. +1.26 +3.43 +0.49 +0.63 +1.02 Hopen +1.25 +3.50 +0.32 +0.26 +1.43 Bjørnøya +0.89 +2.25 +0.42 +0.33 +0.83
Permafrost measurements, Janssonhaugen, Svalbard From K.Isaksen, met.no Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE)
Seasonal ground temperatures Janssonhaugen, Svalbard
Time series at different depths 25 m depth T 0.25-0.40 C 30 m depth T 0.20-0.30 C T 0.10-0.15 C 40 m depth
Relation with air temperature Mean monthly ground temperature (0.2 m depth) vs. mean monthly air temperature (2 m screen height)
Conclusions, Permafrost In all boreholes there is a close relation between air, ground surface and ground temperatures, resulting in a preserved climate signal that penetrates into the permafrost. Significant warming is detectable down to at least 60 m depth. Calculated present decadal warming rates at the permafrost table are in the order of 0.4 0.7 C/decade, with greatest warming in Svalbard and northern Sweden. The present trend shows accelerated warming during the latest decade. In future, a greater frequency of high-temperature anomalies, superimposed on a warming trend, may cause great irregular acceleration in near-surface permafrost thawing. Outliers like the 2005/2006 give us a indication into the types of anomalies we expect to become more common in Svalbard within the coming decades. (Permafrost info from ketil.isaksen@met.no)
Annual precipitation, Svalbard Airport - Longyearbyen 350 300 2009:152 mm 2010:187 mm (2011: 99%) 250 200 150 OBS filt 1 filt 2 100 50 0 + 2.2 %/decade 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
mm Annual precipitation, Arctic stations 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Ny-Ålesund Svalbard Airport Isfjord Radio Bjørnøya Jan Mayen Hopen 100 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Precipitation trends % per decade Station Period År Vinter Vår Sommer Høst Svalbard Airport 1912-2005 2,2-1,0 2,0 4,5 3,2 Isfjord Radio 1935-1975 8,0 11,2 8,4 8,5 9,6 Ny-Ålesund 1969-2010 3,3 7,8-1,9-4,0 8,5 Hopen 1946-1997 4,6 7,1 7,2 2,9 1,3 Bjørnøya 1920-2010 3,1 4,4 5,0 0,9 2,7 Jan Mayen 1921-2008 1.3 2.2 3.7 0.5-0.4
Undercatch in precipitation gauges
Correction factor Undercatch, Norwegian precipitation gauge Undercatch, Norwegian gauge 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 2 4 6 Wind speed (m/s) i=0.1 mm/h i=1 mm/h i=10 mm/h T=0 degc T= -5degC T= -10degC
Fraction (%) Fraction (%) Fraction (%) Annual fractions of liquid, solid and mixed precipitation at Svalbard Airport 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Liquid 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 80 70 Solid 60 50 40 30 20 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 50 40 Mixed 30 20 10 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
NorACIA: REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL FOR NORDIC ARCTIC Regional climate model based upon HIRHAM version II (RegClim p.t. HIRHAM-I) Spatial resolution at the surface: ca. 24x24 km (HIRHAM-I: 55x55 km) Vertical resolution: 31 levels (HIRHAM-I: 19 levels) Other improvements compared to HIRHAM-I: New scheme for integration in time new scheme for forcings in the boundary layer Improved description of processes for modeling soil temperature and soil moisture Improved snow model (better description of albedo over snow covered ice)
NorACIA RCM simulations 2007-2008 Spatial resolution 24x24 km, RCM: HIRHAM-II, AOGCM: MPI Time slices: 2020-2049 and 1981-2009 (SRES Emission scenario IS92a) 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 (SRES Emission scenario B2) EXAMPLES OF AVAILABLE NorACIA CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AVERAGE MEAN 2m TEMPERATURE (ANNUAL & SEASONAL) PRECIPITATION SUM (ANNUAL & SEASONAL) EXTREME 1-DAY RAINFALL (95 & 99 percentiles) EXTREME 1-DAY RAINFALL (5 year return period) 1-DAY RAINFALL > 20 MM SNOWFALL > 10 CM/DAY EXTREME WIND SPEED (95 & 99 percentiles) EXTREME WIND SPEED (5 year return period) Experimental: 1-h rainfall, 0 C shifts,
Projected change (degc) in temperature from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 (Global model: MPI ECHAM4, SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
Projected change (%) in precipitation from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
Projiserte endringer i lufttemperatur (ºC) fra 1961-90 til 2071-2100 (CMIP3 og SRES:A1b. Ensemblestørrelse: ~50 GCM s) Svalbard lufthavn / Longyearbyen År Vinter Vår Sommer Høst L (10%) 4,8 7,5 6,0 1,6 6,1 M (50%) 6,8 9,4 7,6 2,5 7,3 H (90%) 8,1 10,8 9,1 3,6 9,1 Bjørnøya År Vinter Vår Sommer Høst L (10%) 5,2 7,8 6,7 2,5 4,7 M (50%) 6,2 7,8 7,6 3,9 5,2 H (90%) 8,5 11,8 9,4 5,6 6,7
CONCLUSIONS NorACIA Projections (110 yrs) Temperature: Annual: Increase ca +3 C in SW, ca. +8 C in NE Seasonal: Smallest warming during summer, largest autumn and winter. Autumn and winter >+8 C in NE parts. Summer: Most parts +2->4 C. Barents Sea: Substantial increase in air temperatures for the ocean areas between Svalbard and Novaja Zemlja; particularly during September-May. Largest increase in areas where sea ice is replaced by open sea. Precipitation Annual: Svalbard increase 10-40%. Smallest increase in S and SW, largest increase in N and NE. Seasonal: Increase for all seasons. Largest increase autumn and winter Extremes: Substantial increase in number of events with heavy rainfall