Nye tider. Globalisering, kunstig intelligens og nye politiske vinder

Nye tider. Globalisering, kunstig intelligens og nye politiske vinder Presentasjon for: Offshore Nordland Av: Senioranalytiker Eirik Larsen Sted/dato: Sandnessjøen, 7. 8. juni 2017

Det har vært mye elendighet så langt i år endelig får vi noen glad-meldinger også! 2

Nye tider og nye utfordringer for finansmarkedene 1) Prolog: Klima, terror og ny teknologi skaper nye utfordringer i det globaliserte samfunnet. Hvor bekymret bør vi være? Eirik Larsen Senioranalytiker / Chief Technical Analyst FX Investors and Retail Clients DNB Markets E-mail: eirik.larsen@dnb.no Mobil: +47 911 93 600 Post: 0021 Oslo Besøk: Dronning Eufemias gate 30 2) Mer positive utsikter for verdensøkonomien, men toppen nås til neste år 3) Og her hjemme slipper endelig «oljebremsen» taket 4) Prognoser for oljepris, renter og valutakurser Delacroix: La Liberté guidant le peuple (1830) 3

La oss gå snaut halvannet år tilbake da begynte i alle fall jeg å innse at finansmarkedene sto overfor nye utfordringer 4

Forstår ikke orker ikke tør ikke Ser vi et folkelig opprør mot elitenes arroganse og ens egen maktesløshet? Globalisering Turbo-kapitalisme Digitalisering / roboter Geopolitikk / terror / flyktninger Klimaendringer Et heksebrygg bestående av: Uro, angst og frykt 5

Og hva gjør vi med det? Vi lar oss i alle fall forføre av populister, diktatorer og narsissister. 6

Blir da dette «rulleteksten» for vår samfunnsmodell? The End? 7

Vi har gjennomgått store omveltninger tidligere også Store fremskritt og alvorlige tilbakeslag. Hulter til bulter og om hverandre 8

DNB Markets: Økonomiske utsikter «Mid Term Update» reviderte anslag og prognoser per 20. april 2017 Internasjonalt: 2017 har startet bra større optimisme Den globale økonomiske veksten blir høyere, men når toppen til neste år Fortsatt nedgang i arbeidsledigheten og moderat inflasjon Mye «støy», men risikobildet er stort sett uforandret siden januar 9

Pilene peker generelt opp for verdensøkonomien nå selv om det fortsatt er vekstøkonomiene som trekker lasset 2,5 2 1,5 Norge 1 0,5 0-0,5-1 -1,5-2 -2,5 10

Internasjonale vekstanslag DNB Markets 20.april USA Industrilandene Fremvoksende øk. 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11

Prognose for styringsrentene DNB Markets per 22. mai 2017 USA Japan Storbritannia Eurosonen Sverige Norge 12

Vårt hovedbilde av norsk økonomi frem mot 2020 preges av et forsiktig oppsving men også av mangel på sterke bidragsytere til vekst Norge: Hovedtall, % 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 Gradvis høyere vekst Arbeidsledigheten har kulminert Inflasjonen avtar Økt kjøpekraft og løft i forbruket 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 - Fastlands-Norge Arbeidsledighet (AKU) KPI-JAE 13

Snart slipper det negative draget fra oljeinvesteringene også vi venter nedgang i investeringene også i år, men ser forsiktig oppgang fremover 14

Vi tror (fortsatt) på mer balanse i oljemarkedet og stigende priser OPEC-kuttene nå økt etterspørsel senere 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Prognose per kvartal 55 Q2-2017 60 Q3-2017 70 Q4-2017 Oljestatistikk: USA Oljestatistikk: USA 10000 9500 9000 550 500 1000 800 600 674 733 8500 450 400 316 8000 400 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 200 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Produksjon Lager Rig Count (Baker Hughes) 15

Prisen viser imidlertid «teknisk» svakhet pt kvartalsvis noteringer 147,50 128,40 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 58,37 80 70 60 50 40 9,55 36,20 27,10 30 20 10 0 50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 16

Utviklingen i det norske arbeidsmarkedet er åpenbart i bedring men det er fortsatt store, regionale forskjeller! Helt ledige i % av arbeidsstyrken per mai 2017 Arbeidsmarkedet: Helt ledige per mai 2017 Endring fra i fjor i prosent 4.5-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 4.0 3.9 I alt Sogn og Fjordane -12-13 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Oppland Troms Hedmark Akershus Nord-Trøndelag Nordland Sør-Trøndelag Buskerud Oslo Møre og Romsdal Østfold Telemark Vestfold -19-16 -13-15 -13-12 -16-10 -7-7 -7-6 -2 0.0 Aust-Agder Hordaland -21-9 Vest-Agder -19 Finnmark -7 Rogaland -11 Kilde: NAV og DNB Markets Kilde: NAV og DNB Markets 17

Hva er «riktig» norsk rente? Norges Bank har mange forhold å ta hensyn til Produksjon og sysselsetting Renten i andre land Bankenes utlånsrente Inflasjonsmålet (etter hvert) % % Boligprisene Finansiell stabilitet Kronekursen? Finanspolitikken? 18

Hva er «riktig» norsk rente? Norges Bank har mange forhold å ta hensyn til Konklusjon: Pengepolitikken er balansert, og Vi forventer uforandret rente i prognoseperioden (t.o.m. 2020) % 19

Aktuelle valutaspørsmål Hva er dagens problemstillinger og hvordan ser vi på utviklingen fremover? Aktuelle Valutaspørsmål

Valuta-prognose prognose per 20. april 2017 1.12 EURUSD 1.20 USDNOK 8.46 8.43 6.83 1.02 EURNOK 9.49 8.60 8.20 21

Til syvende og sist: oljeprisen blir avgjørende! For kronekursen. Og for det meste annet 8.75 8.80 8.85 8.90 8.95 9.00 9.05 9.10 9.15 9.20 9.25 9.30 9.35 9.40 9.45 9.50 9.55 9.60 Kronen Olje 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 July August September October November December 2017 February March April May June 22

Oppsummert Vi venter mer driv i verdensøkonomien i år; godt hjulpet av USA og de fremvoksende økonomiene. Fra 2018 og fremover ser vi mer avmålt vekst i industrilandene Risikolisten er lang og spenner fra politisk populisme og geopolitiske utfordringer, til faren for hard økonomisk landing i Kina. I sum sår disse faktorene betydelig tvil om de økonomiske utsiktene I Norge ser vi tegn til et mildt oppsving, men høye boligpriser i kombinasjon med en betydelig husholdningsgjeld utgjør en voksende risikofaktor for veksten Mens USA fortsetter å stramme inn i pengepolitikken, vil rentene i Europa forbli svært lave i overskuelig fremtid Oljeprisen forventes å stige til 70 $/fat mot slutten av året for deretter å fluktuere innenfor et $60-80 bånd i årene fremover Det er betydelig usikkerhet knyttet til valutakursutviklingen, men vi forventer fortsatt en svakere US-dollar og en sterkere norsk krone på sikt 23

Og da skulle min tilmålte tid være ute (definitivt også for Frankrikes tidligere president François Hollande) 24

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Memo: Internasjonale anslag per 20. april 2017 26

Memo: norske anslag per 20. april 2017 27

Memo: rente prognoser per 22. mai 2017 Styringsrente 06-Jun-17 1 mnd Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 USA: Fed Funds 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.25 2.25 Japan: Dag-til-da -0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10 Euroland: Repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UK: Bank rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Sverige: Repo -0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.40 0.00 0.00 Norge: Folio 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Sveits: 3M Libor -0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 Tre mndr 06-Jun-17 1 mnd Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 USA 1.22 1.35 1.50 1.55 1.80 2.40 2.40 2.40 Japan 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euroland -0.33-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.10 0.10 0.10 Storbritannia 0.29 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.40 Sverige -0.50-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.25 0.25 0.25 Norge 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.95 0.95 0.95 Sveits -0.73-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75 10 år swap 06-Jun-17 1 mnd Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 USA 2.13 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 2.75 2.75 Japan 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Euroland 0.79 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 Storbritannia 1.13 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Sverige 1.05 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 Norge 1.83 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 Sveits 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Spread NO-ØMU 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 28

Memo: valuta prognoser per 22. mai 2017 Valutakurs 06-Jun-17 1 mnd Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 USDJPY 109.7 112 114 115 116 110 105 100 EURUSD 1.13 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.02 1.10 1.15 1.20 EURGBP 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.95 EURDKK 7.44 7.44 7.44 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 EURSEK 9.74 9.60 9.50 9.30 9.20 8.80 8.90 8.90 EURNOK 9.51 9.30 8.90 8.70 8.60 8.50 8.30 8.20 EURCHF 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.10 1.12 1.15 USDCNY 6.80 6.90 6.95 7.00 7.10 7.31 7.53 7.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 Kalkulerte progn06-jun-17 1 mnd Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 SEKNOK 97.58 96.88 93.68 93.55 93.48 96.59 93.26 92.13 USDNOK 8.43 8.45 8.40 8.29 8.43 7.73 7.22 6.83 GBPNOK 10.91 10.81 10.35 9.67 9.35 9.14 8.92 8.63 JPYNOK 7.69 7.55 7.37 7.20 7.27 7.02 6.87 6.83 DKKNOK 128 125 120 117 115 114 111 110 CHFNOK 875 861 832 821 819 773 741 713 NOKTWI 114.94 113.0 109.0 106.5 106.0 104.0 101.0 99.0 I44 106.62 105.0 101.0 99.0 98.5 96.5 93.5 92.0 29