Utsikter for norsk og europeisk økonomi. MayDay /5/2014 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

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1 Utsikter for norsk og europeisk økonomi. MayDay /5/214 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

2 «All Time High» på børsene: Krisen er glemt! Draghis «whatever it takes» 26/7/212 ble vendepunktet Aksjeindekser May-4 May-6 May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 MSCI verdensindeks Kilde: Thomson Datastream,/DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream, OSEBX (ha) Spread i 1-års statsrenter Basispunkter May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 Italia-Tyskl. Kilde: Thomson Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Spania-Tyskl.

3 Hellas låner penger igjen Holdt sin første vellykkede gjeldsauksjon på 4 år i april (5 år, 4,95%) Hellas: 1 års statsrenter Prosent 5 May-1 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Hellas: Bruttogjeld, %BNP Kilde: IMF Fiscal Monitor September 211/DNB Markets

4 Men økonomiene sliter fortsatt Etterdønninger og tilbakeslag har gitt lav vekst i lang tid BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 28Q1-1 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 USA Japan EZ UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Q1 28 Eurosonen: BNP Prosentvis endring siden 28Q1 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 I alt Tyskland Frankrike Italia Kilde Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

5 Vårt hovedscenario: Fremvoksende drar lasset Industriland: USA i tet, fra minus til (svakt) pluss i eurosonen Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring fra året før. Bidrag Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

6 Flere grunner til optimisme 1. Budsjettinnstrammingene blir mindre 2.5 Syklisk justert primærbalanse Prosent av BNP. Endring år/år. Positive tall er en innstramning ØMU USA Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

7 Flere grunner til optimisme 2. Reformer har gitt lavere kostnader ØMU: Lønnskostnader/prod.enhet 2= Italia Spania Hellas Portugal Irland Tyskland Frankrike Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

8 Flere grunner til optimisme 3. Privat gjeld har kommet ned 18 Privat gjeld Prosent av BNP Q2 21 Q2 24 Q2 27 Q2 21 Q2 213 USA Eurosonen Kilde: BIS/IMF/DNB Markets

9 Flere grunner til optimisme 4. Sentralbankene gir full gass Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets

10 Hvor kan vi ta feil? Noen eksempler USA: Inflasjonen kommer tidligere/sterkere Eurosonen: Giftig deflasjon/gjeldsspiral Kina: Hard landing Japan: Det pengepolitiske eksperimentet går galt

11 Siste 2 år: Eventyrlig sterke for Norge Da finanskrisen traff ble Norge for alvor annerledeslandet. 4 BNP Prosentvis volumendring, F-Norge Sverige Danmark Eurosonen USA Gjennomsnitt Variasjon (Standardavvik) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets

12 2-tallet: Triplet oljepris løftet lønnsomheten Betydelige ringvirkninger, via investeringer, drift og lønnsoppgjør Bytteforhold Eksport-/importpriser. Indeks. Q2 1995=1 6 Q Q3 21 Q3 26 Q3 211 Danmark Sverige Finland F-Norge Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Norge: Lønnsandel Prosent 8 78 Lønnskostnader/(lønnskostnader + driftsresultat) Fastlands-Norge Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets F.-næringer

13 Boligprisnivået en refleksjon av eventyret Høy inntektsvekst for den jevne nordmann, lav rente, lav og stabil ledighet Deflaterte boligpriser 1985= Median husholdningsinntekt Prisjustert, 25= Disp. inntekt KPI Byggekost Kilde: EFF/finn.no/Eiendomsverdi/Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Norge USA Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets

14 Tilbudssiden: Ingen byggebonanza i Norge I 199 hadde Irland 3,5 millioner innbyggere, Norge hadde 4,2 millioner 15 Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging Årlig endring i 1 15 Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging Årlig endring i Bef. Nettoinnvandring Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Bef. Nettoinnvandring Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 14

15 Todelt etter krisen: Olje- og boligsmurt oppgang Fall i næringsinvesteringene, stagnasjon i eksport, tilbakeholdne forbrukere Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter 28Q1=1. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 Q1 216 Priv. konsum Off. kons Oljei nv. Nær.inv. Boliginv. Trad.eksport Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

16 Nå er oljeboomen på hell Oljestimulansene går fra kraftig positive til mildt negative Oljeinvesteringer Milliarder NOK Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Spot Brent historikk og prognose Dollar/fat FWD (nominelle priser) Prognose nominelle priser Prognose reelle priser (213 USD) Kilde: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets

17 Det dabber av, på bred basis Todelingen nesten borte, mindre fart i oljå, boligbyggingen faller Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Jul-4 Jul-6 Jul-8 Jul-1 Jul-12 Jul-14 Oljelev. B/A Hjemmeind. Eksportind. Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Jul-4 Jul-6 Jul-8 Jul-1 Jul-12 Jul-14 Varehandel Tj.yting bedrifter Pers. tj.yting Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets

18 Ingen tegn til flaskehalser og kostnadspress Sysselsettingen har flatet ut, ledigheten vil stige Reg.nettverk: Kapasitetsproblemer? Prosentandeler Feb-4 Feb-6 Feb-8 Feb-1 Feb-12 Feb-14 Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Vanskelig å møte økt etterspørsel Prod. begrenset av arbeidskraftstilgang Arbeidsmarked 1 personer. Sesongjustert May-4 May-6 May-8 May-1 May-12 May-14 Sysselsatte Kilde: Thomsen Datastream/NAV/DNB Markets Registrert helt ledige+tiltak (ha)

19 Norges Bank: Utsetter rentehopp til høsten 215 Hvorfor ikke rentekutt, med utsikter til inflasjon under målet? 6 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 7.mai May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

20 Gjeldsbyrde bekymrer Rentebetalingene opp til 1% av disp. inntekt, tross beskjeden renteoppgang Husholdningene Prosent av disponibel inntekt Rentebelastning Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Gjeldsandel (ha)

21 Sparelysten har økt, og den har kommet for å bli! Rekordhøy gjeld vil hindre tilløp til kjøpefest 8 Sparerate, husholdninger, % x utbytte x utbytte og pensjonspremie Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets

22 Boligprisfall i høst et blaff, nedgang fra neste år -4½% de neste to årene, som følge av høyere ledighet og høyere renter Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år Faktisk Kilde: EFF/NEF/Econ Pöyry/Finn.no/DNB Markets Modell

23 Motvekter: Svakere krone og oppsving ute Men norske eksportører vil fortsatt tape markedsandeler Norske kroner Sterkere krone May-1 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 EURNOK I-44 (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

24 og impulser fra finanspolitikken Vi venter 15 mrd i skattekutt neste år 28 Oljefond og oljepengebruk Mrd 214-kroner Faktisk NB15? 4% Kilde: Finansdepartement et, NB214 & TP214/DNB Markets

25 : Myk landing Fastlandsvekst i underkant av 2%. Under pari for Norge, men langt fra krise Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter 28Q1=1. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 Q1 214 Q1 216 Priv. konsum Off. kons Oljei nv. Nær.inv. Boliginv. Trad.eksport Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

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