Økonomiske utsikter Eiendomsdagen i Drammen, Torsdag 8. oktober 2015 Seniorøkonom Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Markets

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1 Økonomiske utsikter Eiendomsdagen i Drammen, Torsdag 8. oktober 215 Seniorøkonom Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Markets

2 Internasjonalt: Stabil vekst, større usikkerhet Industriland i slurefart. Fremvoksende økonomier i tet, men sårbare for sjokk Globalt BNP Prosentvis volumendring f ra året f ør. Bidrag Kina EMEs x Kina USA ØMU Øvrige industriland Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

3 Full splitt i BRIC-landene (32% av globalt BNP) Kraftig fall i Russland og Brasil, India har tangert Kina-vekst og går nå over BNP 15 Prosentvis endring år/år Q4 28 Q4 21 Q4 212 Q4 214 Kina India Russland Brasil Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets. BRICs utgjør 53% av EMEs, 3% av verden

4 Brytningstid i rentemarkedet Slutt på nullrente i BoE og Fed i løpet av det neste halve året Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose Sep-8 Sep-1 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Central Bank Assets Billion USD Q4 26 Q4 29 Q4 212 Q4 215 Q4 218 Fed ECB BoE BoJ Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

5 Amerikansk styringsrente drar lange renter opp Men svært forsiktig. I 218 er USAs konjunkturoppsving trolig over, etter ni år 6 Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 25-Sep Sep-8 Sep-1 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets

6 Rikelig med risikofaktorer! Fremvoksende økonomier sårbare for sterkere dollar/lavere råvarepriser 1. Kraftig oppbremsing i Kina. Sannsynlighet 2%. 2. Oljeprisene ubalansert marked og ytterligere oljeprisnedgang. Kan virke positivt og negativt. 3. Fed Tightening Tantrum (Tyrkia, Sør-Afrika, Brasil særlig utsatt) 4. Konkurrerende devalueringer. Svakere yuan i det siste, vil flere følge etter? 5. «Sekulær stagnasjon». Realrenten kommer ikke nok ned. 6. Politisk risiko: Hellas, Russland, Kina S&P GSCI råvareprisindekser Aug 214= 1 4 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Samlet Metaller Råolje Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% EME-valutaer vs USD Prosent endring siden 1 Aug 14 Energi Edle metaller Landbruksvarer -1% Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 BRL KRW INR TRY RUB MXN Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

7 Norge: Oljebrems på gang

8 Oljeprisstupet gir svakere utsikter for Norge Verden flommer over av olje. Vi venter bare beskjeden oppgang ($6-8/fat) Brent Blend oil USD per barrel Forward market DNBs forecast Actual Kilde: Reuters/DNB Markets

9 Resultat: Lavkonjunktur som trekker ut i tid Vekst på 1,4% i 215/216. Arbeidsledigheten opp til 5%, høyest siden Norway: Mainland GDP and unemployment Percent Mainland-GDP (change, y/y) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Unemployment

10 utløst av store investeringskutt i petroindustrien Lavere lønnsomhet/kontantstrøm. Investeringsfall på over 3% i Norway: Petroleum investments Bn 212-NOK Share of Mainland GDP (rha) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets

11 Bare 4% av ressurser lønnsomme under $5 Men break-even-priser vil komme ned 12 Norwegian shelf: Accumulated petroleum resources. Bn barrels, distributed by break-even price (USD/brl) Source: Rystad Energy/DNB Markets

12 Oljebremsen er en realitet allerede Smitter over til næringsrettet tjenesteyting Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 til +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Oct-5 Oct-7 Oct-9 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oljelev. B/A Varehandel B2B Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets RN: Stanger i kapasitetstaket? Prosent May-5 May-7 May-9 May-11 May-13 May-15 Nordvest Sørvest Øst Kilde: Norges Bank, Regionalt nettverk/dnb Markets

13 Oppgang er avløst av nedgang for noen, mens andre har slitt lenge Norge: Industriproduksjon Etter næring. 25=1. Sesongjustert 4 Jun-95 Jun- Jun-5 Jun-1 Jun-15 Verft Maskin Kjemisk Metall Møbel Treforedling Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 13

14 Store regionale variasjoner for oljejobbene 214: 33 (13% av alle) jobber. 21% av disse eksportrelaterte Source: IRIS-rapport, «Industribyggerne 215»

15 Kommuner: Sola på topp i petroleumsdominans.. IRIS: Petroleumsvirksomhet i 415 av 428 kommuner

16 mens andre er i «oljeskyggen» Hedmark og Oppland er fylkene med minst andel i oljeservice

17 Buskerud: 1.5 ansatte / 8% oljerelatert Kongsberg og Drammen. Subsea. Mye eksport.

18 Ledighetsoppgangen så langt konsentrert i vest Forvent bredere oppgang (geografisk/yrkesmessig) når ringvirkninger spres Registrert ledighet. Regioner Ujustert. Prosentvis endring år/år, gl. 3m Norge: Ledighet fordelt på yrke Andel av total registrert ledighet (april 215) -2 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Riket Østlandet Innlandet Vestland Trøndelag Buskerud Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Bygg/anlegg Industri Ingeniører Transport Varehandel Tjenesteyt. Adm.arb. Resten Kilde: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

19 «Indirekte» oljearbeidsplasser dominerer i øst Effekten kommer senere

20 Boligprisene stiger videre men ikke i Stavanger Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år -15 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Kilde: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år -15 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Stavanger Tromsø Drammen Kilde: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets 2

21 Lønnsveksten har avtatt Lønnsomheten i mange bransjer har avtatt markert Partene tidlig ute med å møte oljeprisfall og lavkonjunktur Norge: Årslønn og ledighet Prosentvis endring og nivå i prosent Reallønn Konsumpriser Ledighetsrate Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Jan-1 Jan-5 Jan-9 Jan-13 Industri Norge: Varepriser Prosent å/å Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Utvinningstjenester, ha

22 «Rammer» bredt: Svært moderate lønnsoppgjør 216: 2,5%, laveste siden Reallønnsvekst under historisk snitt Norge: Reallønnsvekst Årlig prosentvis endring Faktisk Glattet Gj.sn. Kilde: TBU/Statistisk Sentralbyrå/DNB Markets

23 Lønnsvekst vil trekke innenlandsk inflasjon ned Utsikter til inflasjon under Norges Banks mål trekker renteutsiktene ned Forventet lønnsvekst Partene i arbeidslivet 5 4 Norge: Priser og lønninger Årlig prosentvis endring Q2 25 Q2 27 Q2 29 Q2 211 Q2 213 Q2 215 I år Neste år Om 5 år Kilde: NBs Forventningsundersøkesel/Thomson Datastream//DNB Markets Innenlandsk kjerneinflasjon ex husleie Årslønn (ha) Kildee: Statistisk sentralbyråy/dnb Markets 4 3

24 Samlet inflasjon ned til 1¼ % i 217/218 Når NOK-effekten ebber ut, og importprisveksten blir negativ igjen Norway: Core inflation and the NOK Percentage y/y growth Jan- Jan-3 Jan-6 Jan-9 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Import prices Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets I-44 (4 month lag), ha Norway: Core inflation (CPI-ATE) Percent change y/y Jan- Jan-3 Jan-6 Jan-9 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Total Imports Domestic Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets

25 Pengepolitikken er førstelinjeforsvaret Styringsrenten ned til, 5% i desember,,25% i september Norway: Key Policy Rate Per cent Actual MPR3/15 DNB Markets Source: Thomson Datastream/Norges Bank/DNB Markets

26 Bidrar til å holde kronen svakere enn normalt Høyere langsiktig EURNOK enn i oljeboom-årene (8,2 vs 8,) EURNOK Oct-14 3-Oct-15 3-Oct-16 Fwd CF Sep 15 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reuters/Consensus Economics/DNB Markets EURNOK* Monthly and period average 6.5 Jan-93 Jul-97 Jan-2 Jul-6 Jan-11 Jul-15 Des Apr. 94 Mai 95 - Des. 98 Jan jun. 14 * Before 1999, ECUNOK Source: Thomson Datastram/Norges Bank/DNB Markets

27 slik at bedriftene blir mer konkurransedyktige Har hentet igjen 1 år med tapt konkurransekraft. 13. Norge: Relative timelønnskostnader i industrien, målt i felles valuta Indeks. 23= Isolert effekt av 14 prosent svakere krone Kilde: Teknisk beregningsutvalg/dnb Markets

28 Nasjonale boligpriser vil trolig avta fra 216 Når ledighetsoppgangen blir bredere (yrkesmessig/regionalt) 3 Housing prices Percent change y/y Actual/estimate Source: EFF/FINN//Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets DNB's model

29 I sum: En mer langtrukken konjunkturbunn Laveste fastlandsvekst i (1,4%), svakere oppsving deretter Norway: GDP, CPI & unemployment Percent change y/y and level in percent Mainland GDP y/y Unemployment CPI y/y Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets

30 Oppsummering Norge og verdensøkonomien går motsatt vei: Avtakende vekst her hjemme, mens oppsvinget fortsetter ute. Oljeboom har blitt oljebrems: En lavere oljepris gir kraftig investeringsrevers på norsk sokkel. Gir ringvirkninger i fastlandsbedriftene, arbeidsmarkedet og lønnsoppgjørene. Landingen blir myk, støtdempere virker. Penge- og finanspolitikk, solide husholdninger, svak krone, avtakende arbeidsinnvandring.

31 Memo DNB Markets internasjonale BNP-anslag GDP. Per cent change from preceding year August World * 4.* Industrialized econom ies ** 2.2** USA Eurozone Sw eden Mainland Norw ay UK Japan Em erging econom ies *** 5.7*** China India Brazil Russia Source: DNB Markets *Weighted average of industrialized economies and BRIC **Weighted average of G3, UK, Norw ay and Sw eden ***Weighted average of the BRIC-countries Change from Januar 15 Consensus

32 Memo DNB Markets anslag, august 215 Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge Endring fra april pp Privat forbruk Offentlig forbruk Oljeinvesteringer Fastlandsinvesteringer Trad. vareeksport Trad. vareimport BNP Fastlands-Norge Sysselsetting Arbeidsledighet (AKU) Årslønn Konsumpriser KPI-JAE Sparerate Boligpris m NIBOR Oljepris (USD/fat) Oljepris (NOK/fat) EURNOK USDNOK Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets august

33 Memo Valuta- og renteanslag Policy rates 25-Sep-15 5-Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 USA: Fed Funds Japan: Day-to-day Euro: Repo UK: Base rate Sweden: Repo Norway: Folio Switzerland: 3M Libor CHF month money market rates Country 25-Sep-15 5-Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 USA Japan Euro U.K Sweden Norway Switzerland year swap rates Country 25-Sep-15 5-Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 USA Japan Euro area U.K Sweden Norway Switzerland Source: DNB Markets Exchange rates 25-Sep-15 5-Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 EURNOK USDJPY EURUSD EURGBP EURSEK EURCHF USDCNY Exchange rates (calculated) 25-Sep-15 5-Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 SEKNOK USDNOK GBPNOK JPYNOK DKKNOK CHFNOK KKI Source: DNB Markets

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