Forvaltning av langsiktige plasseringer Hov, 10. mai 2017 Harald Taarud DNB Markets harald.taarud@dnb.no Tlf. 61 24 79 57
Agenda Kort om DNB Markets Gjeldende strategi og dagens portefølje Resultater Forslag til justeringer av strategi 2
DNB Markets Norges største meglerhus Søndre Land kommune Renter/valuta/råvarer Obligasjoner - + Eiendom og fond Aksjer Analyser Rådgivning 3
Aktivaklasser (hovedtyper av investeringsalternativer) Langsiktig avkastning 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Risiko (std.avvik) To veier til avkastning: aksjeandel og kredittrisiko
Avkastning på lang sikt 5
På lang sikt går aksjer oppover, til tross for mye «støy» Søndre Land kommune
Gjeldende strategi og dagens portefølje
Strukturert prosess mot en forvaltningsstrategi 1. Kundeavklaringer 2. Strategi 3. Forvaltning 4. Løpende evaluering Rammebetingelser Skatteposisjon Tidshorisont Risikovilje Krav til likviditet "Passiv"/aktiv Fastlegging av mål og hovedprinsipper Simuleringer Strategisk allokering /referanse -> Aksjeandel Mandat/strategi Vurdering av konkrete case/ alternativer Taktisk allokering avh. av markedssyn Lage portefølje Oppfølging Rapportering Løpende evaluering av resultatene (benchmarking) Mandat "Leveranse" 8
Dagens portefølje og gjeldende strategi 9
Forventet avkastning i 2017 er ca. 2,5% basert på rentenivå og «normalavkastning» for aksjer Søndre Land kommune 10
Renteportefølje gj.sn. rente 1,8% Søndre Land kommune Fond: 68m 11
DNB Scandinavian Property Fund 6,4 mill. kr Søndre Land kommune Fondet investerer i næringseiendom, uten belåning Uten verdiendringer er forventet avkastning ca. 5% (netto leieinntekter forv.kostnad for fondet) 12
Aksjefond: til sammen 52 mill. kr Søndre Land kommune DNB Global Valutasikret DNB Norden III **** Skagen Global / Kon Tiki 13 mill. kr 5 mill. kr 6,5 mill. kr DNB Norge III *** DNB SMB (Norge) DNB Teknologi ***** 15 mill. kr 5 mill. kr 4,2 mill. kr
Risikovekt mai 2017 Nøytralvekt i aksjer Søndre Land kommune 14
Resultater
Hovedtall med benchmarking pr. 30.04.17 Resultat = Sluttverdi (UB) - Startverdi (IB) - Netto inn-/utbetalinger Avkastning i % = Resultat / gj.sn. investert beløp (pengevektet avkastning) 16
Akkumulert resultat 108 mill. kr / 4,05% p.a. 17
Forslag til endring av strategi
Obligasjoner - Avkastningspotensiale High yield Investment grade S&P CCC Spread Seadrill, FOE, Havila, REM, REC, Norske Skog B- 7,5 AINMT (ice.net), Teekay OP, DOF Sub B 6,5 Norwegian Air Shuttle, Odfjell, BW Offshore B+ 6 Norsk Gjenvinning, Kistefos, Solstad BB- 4-5 Color Gr, Ship F., Höegh LNG, Ocean Yield, Scatec, Bonheur BB 4,25 Stolt-Nielsen, Teekay LNG BB+ 3-4 Austevoll, Marine H., Aker ASA, Aker BP, Stena Metall, WW BBB- 1,4 Nortura, Schibsted, Veidekke, Storebrand BBB 1,2 Yara, Norsk Hydro, Tele2 AB, Obos BBL BBB+ 1,0 Olav Thon Eiendom, Tine, Steen & Strøm, Hafslund, Eidsiva A- 0,9 Posten Norge, Orkla, Entra Eiendom, Statkraft, Stb Liv A 0,9 BKK, Gjensidige, Telenor A+ 0,8 DNB Bank, Statoil, Statnett SF, NRK AA (+/-) 0,7 Fjellinjen, NSB, Avinor AAA Den norske stat, Kommunalbanken, Oslo kommune, DNB Boligkreditt Oppdatert 28.09.16
Gjeldende finansstrategi og forslag til endring Ordlyd ( 11.7.4 Direkte eie av rentebærende papirer): - Inntil 15% av totalkapital kan investeres i obligasjoner med kredittrating B+ eller bedre - Enkeltplassering i obligasjoner med lavere rating enn BBB- kan maksimalt utgjøre 2% av kommunens langsiktige finansielle aktiva 20
Eksempel på high yield obligasjonsportefølje Effektiv rente p.t. 5,6% 21
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