Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse 16.03.2015 Nils Christian Øyen Finansanalytiker Tlf +47 99 500 240 nils.oyen@sb1markets.no SpareBank 1 Markets AS gjør spesielt oppmerksom på at MING utstedes av SpareBank 1 SMN. Det er vedtatt at SpareBank 1 SMN om kort tid vil bli SpareBank 1 Markets AS' morselskap, med en eierandel på 73.3%. Dette innebærer at SpareBank 1 Markets AS ikke kan anses å være nøytral i forhold til SpareBank 1 SMN, og således at denne anbefalingen ikke representerer en nøytral og uavhengig analyse/vurdering. Denne investeringsanbefalingen er å anse som markedsføringsmateriale. Det gjøres oppmerksom på at anbefalingen ikke er utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser.
Kommentarer: Fallende innskuddsmarginer i januar Konklusjoner Marginen på innskudd fra husholdninger falt 14bps i januar og er dermed på -0.59%. Innskuddsrenten ble satt ned første uken i mars, men kombinert med en fallende NIBOR vil det bli krevende å unngå ytterligere fall i innskuddsmarginen fremover. På den positive siden har boligmarginen holdt seg bra hittil. Finanstilsynet ber mindre banker revurdere IRB-søknader, erfaringsmessig er det meget krevende for mindre banker å tilpasse seg kravene for å få IRB tillatelse. I skrivende stund har Tilsynet ikke svart på Finansdepartementets ønske om tiltak som stopper prisvekst på boliger vi venter grep som reduserer låntegers kredittilgang: Lavere gearing og økt amortisering. På sikt kan motsyklisk buffer økes om prisoppgangen fortsetter, men vi tror ikke på dette virkemidelet nå. SSB nedjusterer anslag på oljeinvesteringer ytterligere og ser NBP vekst på 1.1% for 2015. Vi nedgraderte DNB fra Kjøp til Nøytral i forrige uke, ikke fordi aksjen er dyr (det er den ikke), men fordi utfallsrommet er mer balansert nå enn tidligere gitt at aksjen handler høyt i egen trading range siste 2 år samt at oljeprisen faller tilbake. Utbyttesesongen står foran oss og sementering av lavere renteforventinger bidrar til kursoppgang for bankaksjer. I snitt er direkteavkastningen lik både for lokale, regionale og svenske banker på ca 4.7%, men husk at utbyttegraden er 70% for svenske og ca 30% for norske banker. Regionale banker fortsatt som moderat priset på P/B 0.92 og P/E 9.1 på 2015E. Lokale banker handles på P/B 0.79 og P/E 9.6X våre 2015E. Kommentarer 1. Ukegraf: Lavere innskuddsmarginer for husholdningene i januar. 2. Aktuelt makro: SSB nedreviderer anslag på oljeinvesteringer ytterligere. 3. Kursutvikling i 2015: Regionale sparebanker +8%, lokale +11% mot Oslo Børs 6% og DNB +17%. 4. Kredittspreader bank*: Kystbanker fondsobligasjon +328bps, ansvarlig +174bps, senior +55bps og OMF +20bps. 5. Prisingssyklus: Basert på 2015 boken er regionbankene priset til P/B 0.92 og lokalbankene til P/B 0.79. 2 *Kredittspreader fra Nordic Bond Pricing (indikative omsetninger forrige uke. Alle priser nivå 2 banker)
Ukegraf: Fallende innskuddsmarginer for husholdningene i januar motvirkes av økte marginer på boliglån i samme periode Innskuddsmarginer: Husholdninger og bedrifter * Innskuddsmargin = Kunderente siste dag i måneden minus 3m NIBOR. 0,00-0,03-0,10-0,20-0,01-0,05-0,08-0,13-0,13-0,02-0,09-0,1 2015-0,04-0,08-0,09 Bedrifter -0,13-0,16-0,30-0,4-0,40-0,45-0,5-0,50-0,80 3-0,58-0,61-0,71 des.13-0,5-0,51-0,55-0,60-0,70-0,41-0,59 Husholdninger -0,69-0,68-0,74 feb.14 apr.14 jun.14 aug.14 okt.14 des.14 feb.15 Kilde: SSB, SB1M
Boligrenten ble satt ned inntil 30-40bps første uken i mars lavere NIBOR taler for høy margin i 1Q, men press i 2Q Rente og margin nye boliglån* og NIBOR *Snittrente på nye boliglån over NOK 1m og innenfor 60% av taktst. 20 største banker i Norge 4,10-30bps fra mai 2016? 3,70 3,30 2,90 2,50 Rente nye boliglån 2,10 1,70 NIBOR 1,30 0,90 2,2 1,8 1,4 1,0 0,6 jan 4 Brutto margin = Lånerente - NIBOR apr jul 11 okt jan apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt jan apr jul 14 okt jan apr jul 15 okt Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, EcoWin
Renteforventningene faller noe tilbake igjen på 0.9-1.0% til sommeren boligrentene skal nok videre ned 5
Norge: SSB nedjusterer anslag på oljeinvesteringer ytterligere.fall i oljeinvesteringer gir BNP vekst på kun 1.1% i 2015 6
Finanstilsynet: Oppfordrer mindre banker til å revurdere IRB. meget krevende for bankene å tilpasse seg kravene for IRB tillatelse 7
Utbyttesesongen nærmer seg, høy aktivitet siste 10 dager i mars.i snitt 4.7% direkteavkastning, men stor variasjon Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Østfold-Akershus Vest Nordea Toten Ringerike SNN Buskerud-Vestfold Helgeland Møre SEB Handelsbanken SMN Sandnes Sør Øst Swedbank Storebrand DNB Gjensidige SR-Bank NTSG SOAG SVEG NDA TOTG RING NONG SBVG HELG MORG SEB SHB MING SADG SOR SPOG SWED STB DNB GJF SRBANK Utbytte Yield 5,00 4,40 4,00 0,62 5,00 10,00 1,90 3,85 2,50 13,50 4,75 17,50 2,25 3,00 11,00 5,00 11,35 3,80 5,90 2,00 4,6 % 3,2 % 7,0 % 5,1 % 5,5 % 5,9 % 4,6 % 6,7 % 4,4 % 5,5 % 4,4 % 4,2 % 3,7 % 2,9 % 5,5 % 8,7 % 5,2 % 04.mar 18.mar 19.mar 20.mar 20.mar 23.mar 25.mar 25.mar 26.mar 26.mar 26.mar 26.mar 27.mar 27.mar 27.mar 27.mar 27.mar 16.apr 24.apr 24.apr 29.apr Regionale banker Lokale banker Svenske banker 2,9 % 4,3 % 3,6 % Direkteavkastning 2014 og ren kjernekapitaldekning* *CET 1 pr 4Q14. Som rapportert og estimert uten overgangsregler ikke-vesentlige fin.eierandeler 10% 9% CET 1 rapportert SPOG CET 1 eks overgangsregler 8% SVEG 7% Direkteavkastning 2014E Ex utbytte datoer (utbytte for 2014)* Bank Ticker Ex-dato SBVG SBVG 6% MORG 5% NTSG 4% SOR TOTG NONG NTSG HELG SOAG 3% MING SOAG SRBANK DNB SADG 2% 1% 0% 9% 10% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% CET 1 (rapportert og eks overgangsregler) 4,8 % 4,5 % 4,7 % *Aksjen handles eks rett til utbytte fra denne dato 8 RING RING 16% 17% 18%
Kursoppgang for både norske og europeiske banker i uken som gikk mer moderat utvikling etter sterk periode siste måneden 9
% DNB og NONG rykker frem 1% 10
De store forretningsbankene i tet så langt i 2015 Totalavkastning* hittil i 2015 18% 17% 16% Kvartalsrapporter 1Q15 Bank Ticker *Justert for eventuelle utbytter, splitter og tegningsretter 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 2% 0% DNB Svenske banker Lokale sparebanker Europeisk bank Regionale sparebanker Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. 11 OSEBX Helgeland Sandnes SEB Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Swedbank Nordea SNN Ringerike Handelsbanken SR-Bank Storebrand Vest DNB Møre Hedmark Toten BN Bank Buskerud-Vestfold Gjensidige Østfold-Akershus Øst Sør SMN 16.03.2015 HELG SADG SEB NTSG SWED NDA NONG RING SHB SRBANK STB SVEG DNB MORG SBHE TOTG BNB SBVG GJF SOAG SPOG SOR MING Dato 20.apr 22.apr 23.apr 28.apr 28.apr 29.apr 29.apr 29.apr 29.apr 29.apr 29.apr 29.apr 30.apr 30.apr 30.apr 30.apr 05.mai 05.mai 06.mai 06.mai 06.mai 07.mai 08.mai
Nordea årets vinner så langt - på høyere utbytte såklart Totalavkastning finansinstitusjoner i 2015* *Justert for eventuelle utbytte, splitter, emisjoner og tegningsretter Nordea - NDA 24 % Østfold-Akershus - SOAG 21 % DNB - DNB 17 % Toten - TOTG 18 % Handelsbanken - SHB 14 % Vest - SVEG 13 % Buskerud-Vestfold - SBVG 13 % Øst - SPOG 13 % Møre - MORG 13 % Gjensidige - GJF 13 % Swedbank - SWED 13 % Nøtterøy - NTSG 12 % Ringerike - RING 10 % SEB - SEB 8% SR-BANK - SRBANK 7% EK-bevis index - OSEEX 7% Oslo Børs - OSEBX 6% SNN - NONG 4% SMN - MING 3% Helgeland - HELG Sør - SOR 0% Sandnes - SADG 0% Storebrand - STB -5% 12 4% -1 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 16.03.2015 30%
DNB har outperformet svensk bank på stigende oljepris lite stimulans fra oljepris som faller fra 62 til 54 USD i mars DNB relative to Swedish banks* and oil price** 7,5 5,0 2,5 DNB relative to Swedish banks 0,0-2,5-5,0 DNB relative to Swedish banks -7,5-10,0-12,5 Oil price -15,0-17,5 jan 13 apr jul 12 okt jan apr jul 13 okt jan apr jul 14 okt jan apr 15 124 119 114 109 104 99 94 89 84 79 74 69 64 59 54 49 44 USD/Barrel *31.12.2011 = 0. ** Brent, USD jul Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin
DNB sterk mot regionbankene i februar, flatere i mars DNB relative to Swedish banks and savings banks* *31.12.2013 = 0. Savings banks = regional Norwegian savings banks 10 8 DNB relative to savings banks 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 DNB relative to Swedish banks -16-18 okt 14 des 12 feb apr jun aug 13 okt des feb apr jun aug 14 okt des feb apr 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin
DNB Vi nedgraderte fra Kjøp til Nøytral på fredag forrige uke aksjen er ikke dyr, men risk/reward mer balansert i toppen av trading range + fallende oljepris P/E* - DNB and Swedish banks** *Consensus EPS next 12 months forward. **Swedish banks = SHB, NDA, SEB & SWED. 14 Swedish banks Svensk bank etablerer nye historisk høye nivåer (P/E 14.0X) 13 12 11 DNB 10 DNB har handlet mellom P/E 8.6X og 10X siste halvannet året. 9 8 7 6 5 0-10 -20-30 -40 des mar 10 15 DNB discount to Swedish banks Rabatten er ca 30% jun sep des mar 11 jun sep des mar 12 jun sep des mar jun sep des mar jun 13 14 15 sep Source: SpareBank 1 Markets
Ny reprising av svensk bank, delvis drevet av økte utbytter i Nordea og rentefall DNB handler fortsatt lavt moderat i sitt reprisingsbånd 16
Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og lave renter sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Svensk bank P/B 2.15 Regionale sparebanker priset som europeisk bank 17
% premie/rabatt Rabatten i regionbankene mot DNB noe ut i 2015 18
De lokale sparebankene prises likere de regionale siste året % Pris / Bok rabatten halvert fra -30% til -15% 19
CDS: Kredittspreadene flate i mars for nordiske banker CDS Nordic banks - Senior bond, 5yrs Basis points 135 Last month 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 DANSKE 55 NDA 45 DNB SEB SHB SWED 35 jan mar mai jul 2013 sep nov jan mar mai jul 2014 sep nov jan mar mai 2015 jul Source: Reuters EcoWin 20 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cash-markedet
Noe spreadutgang for fondsobligasjoner og ansvarlige lån i 2015 Swap-spread kapitalstruktur*, bps over NIBOR *5 års løpetid. OMF og Senior Nordea Norge. Ansvarlig lån og fondsobligasjon regionbank (ny type) 600 600 500 500 400 400 Fondsobligasjon ny type 300 200 Ansvarlig lån ny type 100 300 200 100 Senior 0 OMF 11 12 13 14 15 0 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets Credit Research 21
Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang vår benchmark +320bps Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type 800 700 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 Dato Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing... Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 500 400 300 100 21-Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m 350 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 50m 370 03-Sep-14 Grong Spb 35m 335 26-Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m 280 30-Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m 300 14-Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m 300 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 23-Oct-14 SB1 BV 100m 290 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 305 16-Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m 305 19-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m 330 15-Jan-15 Vegårshei Spb 15m 400 04-Feb-15 27-Feb-15 Melhus Spb DNB Bank ASA 60m 2150m 325 325 Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets jan/ 04 Gammel type 22 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 2015 200 0 Bank mai/ 05 okt/ 06 Gammel type med reg. call feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Ny konvertibel med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 16.03.2015
Ansvarlige lån (LT II) spreadet ut siste månedene vår benchmark +175bps 700 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Protector Forsikring 500 400 SRBANK 300 200 mai/ 05 Gammel type 23 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 150m 195 15-Sep-14 Melhus Spb 02-Oct-14 Gjensidige Forsikring 02-Oct-14 Surnadal Spb 03-Oct-14 Indre Sogn Spb 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 05-Nov-14 Eiendomskreditt 125m 185 07-Nov-14 Bamble SB 30m 180 11-Nov-14 SB 1 Nordvest 150m 175 11-Nov-14 Jernbanepersonalets SB 50m 180 08-Dec-14 SB Sogn og Fjordane m 155 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 165 16-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog SB 200m 195 16-Dec-14 SB 1 Lom og Skjåk 25m 205 80m 160 1.2mrd 150 50m 165 50m 170 130m 145 2015 100 0 Bank.. Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets 600 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse Dato okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Gammel type med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 21-Jan-15 Eika Boligkreditt 50m 185 30-Jan-15 Spb Sør 200m 165 05-Feb-15 Odal Spb 200m 200 mai/ 16 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang
Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.6 til 1.1 Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr 31.12.2015. 2,00 Pris/Bok (2015 bok) 16 % ROE 2015E 14 % 11 % 1,50 10,8 % 11,2 % 9,7 % 1,00 2,25 8,5 % 12% 10,1 %10,0 % 9,0 % 8,0 % 7,8 % 2,15 0,00 1,11 0,98 0,94 0,92 0,93 0,89 0,89 0,87 8% 6,6 % 7,9 % 1,26 10% 8,7 % 8,6 % 8,7 % 1,77 0,50 16% 14% 13 % 2,31 18% 5,6 % 6% 4% 0,81 0,77 0,70 0,65 0,62 0,61 2% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 24 16.03.2015
P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 svensk bank handler 11-16X våre 2014E P/E basert på 2014 og 2015 estimater - Nordiske banker 16 P/E 15E 14 P/E 14E 12 10 8 16,0 14,2 14,1 6 4 11,9 11,4 11,1 10,7 10,6 10,5 10,2 9,6 9,6 9,4 8,9 8,7 8,6 8,2 7,8 7,3 2 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 25 16.03.2015
P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. P/E 2015E vs tap på utlån- Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater 25 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 20 MORG 2008/09 Regionale bankser taper ca 30bps SVEG SRBANK NONG P/E 2015E MING 15 DNB 10 2009 DNB taper 70bps 5 0 Normaliserte tap 0.0% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 26 0.25% Peak tap 0.5% Tap på utlån 0.7% 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.9% 1.1%
Verdsettelse og estimater Pris/Bok Core Tier I SR-Bank Midt-Norge Nord-Norge Møre Vest Øst Sandnes Toten Helgeland Sør Buskerud-Vest Østf-Akershus Nøtterøy Ringerike ROE Utbytte P/E Direkteavkastning* 2014E 2015E 2015E 2016E Ticker Kurs (eks hybrid) Bok 2015 2014 2015 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014A 2015E SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG SPOG SADG TOTG HELG SOR SBVG SOAG NTSG RING 56,3 60,3 41,6 245 57 58 104 91 55,7 202 58 137 109 170 11,5 % 11,2 % 12,6 % 12,0 % 12,2 % 13,7 % 12,0 % 13,7 % 13,4 % 13,1 % 14,7 % 15,6 % 13,8 % 17,3 % 64,6 65,7 46,8 259,7 58,7 51,8 171,6 112,9 89,5 226,1 74,2 195,5 167,4 183,2 0,93 0,98 0,95 0,98 1,03 1,11 0,63 0,84 0,65 0,93 0,80 0,75 0,69 0,96 0,87 0,92 0,89 0,94 0,98 1,11 0,61 0,81 0,62 0,89 0,77 0,70 0,65 0,93 14,4 % 14,9 % 12,3 % 12,9 % 13,9 % 15,9 % 6,6 % 14,5 % 10,5 % 12,7 % 12,1 % 12,5 % 13,6 % 11,3 % 10,5 % 11,7 % 10,2 % 9,6 % 11,1 % 8,7 % 5,8 % 9,2 % 8,0 % 9,1 % 8,3 % 9,1 % 9,2 % 8,6 % 10,0 % 10,8 % 10,1 % 9,0 % 9,7 % 8,5 % 5,6 % 8,7 % 6,6 % 7,8 % 7,9 % 8,7 % 8,6 % 8,0 % 2,00 2,25 1,90 13,50 4,00 5,00 3,00 5,00 2,50 11,00 3,85 4,40 5,00 10,00 2,00 2,25 2,10 11,50 3,25 3,00 3,00 3,50 2,25 11,00 2,75 4,75 4,00 8,50 3,6 % 3,7 % 4,6 % 5,5 % 7,0 % 8,7 % 2,9 % 5,5 % 4,5 % 5,5 % 6,7 % 3,2 % 4,6 % 5,9 % 3,7 % 3,9 % 5,3 % 5,0 % 6,1 % 5,7 % 3,0 % 4,1 % 4,2 % 5,8 % 5,1 % 3,6 % 3,8 % 5,3 % 8,8 8,1 9,0 10,2 8,8 12,0 10,7 8,9 8,1 9,9 9,4 7,9 7,3 10,8 DNB 129,6 12,7 % 102,6 1,37 1,26 13,7 % 11,6 % 11,2 % 3,80 4,00 2,9 % 3,2 % 0,87 0,98 0,82 0,83 0,92 0,79 12,7 % 13,7 % 12,2 % 9,2 % 10,6 % 8,4 % 8,6 % 9,9 % 7,8 % 5,0 % 4,9 % 5,3 % 4,6 % 4,8 % 4,5 % Gjennomsnitt* Regionbanker Lokalbanker 13,3 % 11,9 % 13,7 % 2016E 8,6 8,2 8,7 10,2 9,6 11,9 10,6 8,9 9,4 10,7 9,6 7,8 7,3 11,1 6,4 7,4 4,6 24,0 6,5 4,8 9,7 10,2 6,9 20,4 6,1 17,3 15,0 15,8 6,6 7,3 4,8 24,1 6,0 4,9 9,8 10,2 5,9 18,8 6,0 17,6 14,9 15,3 11,0 10,5 11,8 12,3 9,3 9,0 9,4 9,5 9,0 9,6 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Gjennomsnitt eks DNB. Regionbanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Resten defineres som lokale 27 EPS 2015E 16.03.2015
Anbefalinger og kursmål Navn DNB Bank Ticker DNB SR-Bank SMN SNN Møre Vest SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG 56 60 42 245 57 60 66 46 260 60 7% 10 % 11 % 6% 5% Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp 0,87 0,92 0,89 0,94 0,98 8,8 8,1 9,0 10,2 8,8 3,6 % 3,7 % 4,6 % 5,5 % 7,0 % 9,1 9,0 9,7 10,8 10,0 0,93 1,00 0,98 1,00 1,02 11,5 % 11,2 % 12,6 % 12,0 % 12,2 % Buskerud-Vestfold Sandnes Toten Helgeland Østfold-Akershus Ringerike Nøtterøy Øst SBVG SADG TOTG HELG SOAG RING NTSG SPOG 58 104 91 57 137 170 109 58 62 105 88 61 140 180 115 55 8% 1% -3 % 7% 2% 6% 6% -5 % Kjøp Nøytral Nøytral Nøytral Kjøp Kjøp Nøytral Kjøp 0,77 0,61 0,81 0,62 0,70 0,93 0,65 1,11 9,4 10,7 8,9 8,1 7,9 10,8 7,3 12,0 6,7 % 2,9 % 5,5 % 4,5 % 3,2 % 5,9 % 4,6 % 8,7 % 10,4 10,7 8,6 10,3 7,9 11,8 7,7 11,3 0,84 0,61 0,78 0,68 0,72 0,98 0,69 1,06 14,7 % 12,0 % 13,7 % 13,4 % 15,6 % 17,3 % 13,8 % 13,7 % 0,92 0,79 9,0 9,4 4,9 % 5,2 % 9,7 9,8 0,99 0,79 11,9 % 13,8 % Regionbanker Lokalbanker Dagens Kursmål PotensialeAnbefaling kurs 130 138 6% Kjøp 8% 4% Prising på dagens kurs* P/B 15 P/E 15E Yield 14E 1,26 11,0 2,9 % Prising på kursmål ** P/E 16E P/B 15E 11,2 1,35 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Verdsettelse basert på dagens kurs og våre estimater ** Verdsettelse basert på kursmål og våre estimater *** CET I = Ren kjernekapitaldekning (Tier I eks fondsobligasjoner) 28 16.03.2015 CET I*** % 12,7 %
Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret vi ser på utfallsrommet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og DNB *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% MORG NONG 0.25% MING SRBANK DNB 0.00% -0.25% 29 SVEG Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets
Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 12% høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Sensitivitet ROE vs tap op utlån - Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. ROE basert på 2015 estimater 15% 1988-93 Regionale banker taper 200bps pa 10% ROE 2015E DNB taper 300bps pa 5% DNB 0% NONG MING -5% -10% 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 30 2009 DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. 0.4% MORG SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap på utlån
Økt handel i sparebanker de to siste årene 2014 slo 2013 på målstreken, høyest omsetning i SRBANK Omsetning sparebanker januar - desember 2014 Sparebanker - Omsetning i NOK mill* Bevis og aksjer *Per år. Egenkapitalbevis og aksjer (SRBANK) 10 000 9 328 9 486 13 14 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 702 4 223 3 938 4 000 3 876 3 555 2 788 3 000 2 300 2 000 1 000 0 Kilde: Oslo Børs 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SR-BANK SMN SNN Helgeland Møre Vest Sandnes Øst Ringerike Toten Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Melhus Skue Sparebank Nøtterøy Aurskog Klepp Sør Hol Indre sogn Sum SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % 3 581 2 809 1 469 339 343 286 160 102 71 67 61 50 39 24 15 34 11 10 8 8 38% 30% 15% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG 2 803 3 658 1 357 259 327 303 89 173 95 45 37 33 13 18 34 27 14 32 3 5 9 486 100% Sum 9 325 Kilde: Oslo Børs 31 Omsetning hele 2013 Ticker NOK mill NOK mill
Motsyklisk buffer på 1.0% gir krav for CET 1 på 13.5 14% i juli 2016 høy kredittvekst kan imidlertid føre til opprevidering av motsyklisk, men neppe mer enn 50bps Minstekrav og bufferkrav 16% 14% *Basel II, overgangsregler. SIFI banker Dagens nivå regionale sparebanker Margin 0.5-1.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 32 Kombinerte bufferkrav inkl motsyklisk estimat 1% 8.5% Vi tror bankene vil holde en betryggende margin mot minimums-kravene for å redusere sannsynligheten for kupongstopp på fondsobligasjoner. Betryggende margin 50-100bps Kombinerte bufferkrav: 7.5% +1.0% = 8.5% Krav ren kjernekapital juli 2016 13.5-14.0 % SIFI banker Minstekrav EK 4.5% 01/01/1900
Kapitalstruktur norske banker Basel 2 overgangsregler Sammensetning av bankenes kapitaldekning* *Pr 4Q14. Basert på Overgangsregler - Basel I gulv (80%) DNB 12.7 % Nordea Norge 12.7 % 0.4 % 1.5 % BN Bank 14.9 % Hedmark 14.8 % Sogn og Fjordane 0.0 % Møre SR-BANK Midt-Norge 2.0 % 2.4 % 11.5 % 0.8 % 11.2 % Tier 1 1.4 % 2.2 % 1.8 % Ringerike CET 1 2.1 % 1.4 % 12.0 % 1.8 % 0.7 % 1.1 % 12.2 % 3.2 % 2.2 % 1.3 % 12.6 % Vest 0.00.6 %% 17.0 % Østfold-Akershus 0.0 % 15.6 % Buskerud-Vestfold 0.8 0.0 % % 14.7 % Bank 1 OA 0.8 %0.3 % 14.3 % Nøtterøy 13.8 % Øst 13.7 % Toten 13.7 % Helgeland 0.4 % 0.9 % 12.0 % 0% 2% 4% 6% 1.1 % 2.3 % 3.7 % 1.4 % 1.2 % 8% 10% 12% Lokale sparebanker 1.5 % 2.2 % 13.4 % Sandnes Regionale sparebanker Tier 2 2.7 % 17.3 % Telemark 33 0.4 % 13.1 % Nord-Norge DNB Nordea 1.2 % 1.5 % 13.4 % Sør 2.2 % 2.0 % 2.4 % 1.6 % 14% 16% 18% 20%
Kapitalisering: Styrket og likere etter 2008 Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd. Regionbanker SRBANK, MING, NONG 14% 1Q09: 80% 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 12% Lokale banker DNB 1Q08: 90% Region banker 10% 8% Emisjoner 2009/2010: DNB SRBANK MING SVEG Emisjon SPOG 2011: 6% Emisjoner 2012: SRBANK MING Emisjoner 2013: MORG NONG 2013 2014 NONG 4% 34 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes
Disclaimer Standards and supervisory authorities This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations ( Recommendation(s) ) prepared and issued by SpareBank 1 Markets AS ( SpareBank 1 Markets ) cf. the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (No: Verdipapirhandelloven) section 3-10 with further regulations. SpareBank 1 Markets complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association (www.vpff.no) and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts (www.finansanalytiker.no). The lead analyst/author (see front page) is employed by SpareBank 1 Markets, which is legally responsible for this report and is under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). Sources and method for assessment Important sources of information: the issuer, including its quarterly and annual reports, Oslo Stock Exchange and Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå). Sources are cited when referred to in the Recommendation. We use only sources we find reliable and accurate, unless otherwise stated. For shares and share related instruments Recommendations are based on estimates by using various valuation methods. Recommendation structure Our Recommendations are based on a six-month horizon, and on absolute performance. We apply a three-stage recommendation structure where Buy indicates an expected annualized return of greater than +15%; Neutral, from 0% to +10%; Sell, less than 0%. Current Recommendations of the Research Department Refers to Recommendations published prior to this Recommendation and which are required disclosed in accordance with Securities Trading Regulations (No: Verdipapirforskriften) section 3-11 (4). Current Recommendations of the Research Department Buy Neutral Sell Percent 54.6875% 23.4375% 20.3125% Analyst independence The views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect(s) the personal views of the analyst(s) principally responsible for this Recommendation about the subject securities or issuers, and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The Analysts employed by SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary and are members of the bonus pool. However no part of the analysts salaries or bonus relates to the performance of their Recommendations, directly to investment banking services or other services provided by SpareBank 1 Markets or related companies to issuers. 35
Disclaimer Chinese Walls and Conflicts of interests All employees of SpareBank 1 Markets are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to inside information. SpareBank 1 Markets operates a system of Chinese Walls and other organizational procedures in order to control the flow of information within the firm and minimize conflicts of interest within SpareBank1 Markets and between clients. The Research Department is part of this system. Sparebank 1 Markets has established reassuring procedures to prevent conflict of interests. These procedures are documented in Sparebank 1 Markets Routines for Research Department and in the company's General Routines. As mentioned the Research Department is separated from the Corporate Finance Department with "Chinese walls" to control the flow of information. This Recommendation has been prepared by Sparebank 1 Markets Research Department independently, without impact from other departments of Sparebank 1 Markets. Department of Compliance shall be referred to if the objectivity and independence of the analyst can be questioned. Financial instruments held by the analyst(s) and/or close associate of the analyst in the issuer/ issuers herein: 0 Other material interest (if any): None SpareBank 1 Markets does not alone or together with related companies or persons, hold a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by SpareBank 1 Markets, or holds other interests likely to affect the objectivity of a recommendation. For important disclosures, such as an overview of all financial instruments in which SpareBank 1 Markets are market makers or all financial instruments where SpareBank 1 Markets have been lead managers or co-lead managers over the previous 12 months, and all issuers of financial instruments to whom SpareBank 1 Markets have rendered investment banking services over the previous 12 months, please refer to SpareBank 1 Markets equity research website: www.sb1markets.no (login required) Please note that agreements and services subject to confidentiality are excluded. Sparebank 1 Markets parents companies provide a variety of investments services, including banking and financial services. It is possible that Sparebank 1 Markets parents companies will have information regarding the issuer or will be engaged with the issuer in such matters. However such information will not be available for the persons/department providing this report. Sparebank 1 Markets has made no agreement with the issuer to write this research report. This research report has not been discussed or disclosed with the issuer before publishing. Previous Recommendations For an overview of SpareBank 1 Markets Recommendations regarding the financial instruments of the issuer the past 12 months, including data on changes in such Recommendations please see SpareBank 1 Markets website, www.sb1markets.no (log-in required). Planned updates Unless explicitly stated otherwise in this Recommendation, SpareBank 1 Markets expects, but do not undertake, to issue updates to this report following the publication of new figures or forecasts by the issuer covered, or upon the occurrence of other events which could potentially have a material effect on it. 36
Disclaimer Risks Generally, investments in financial instruments involve risks. For specific risks related to our various Recommendations, please see the latest relevant Recommendation. The target prices on companies in the SpareBank 1 Markets Research universe reflect the subjective view of the analyst about the absolute price that financial instruments should trade at, within our six-month recommendation horizon. The target price is based on an absolute valuation approach, which is detailed in our Recommendations. The target price can differ from the absolute valuation, in accordance with the analyst's subjective view on the trading or cyclical patterns for a particular financial instrument, or a possible discount/premium to reflect factors such as market capitalization, ownership structure and/or changes in the same, and company-specific issues. This Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation has been prepared by SpareBank 1 Markets from information obtained from public sources not all of which are controlled by SpareBank 1 Markets. Such information is believed to be reliable and although it has not been independently verified, SpareBank 1 Markets has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information is true and not misleading. Notwithstanding such reasonable efforts, SpareBank 1 Markets makes no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. SpareBank 1 Markets assumes no obligation to update the information contained in this Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation to the extent that it is subsequently determined to be false or inaccurate. This Recommendation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the issuer and/or the industry in which it operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words believes, expects, predicts, intends, projects, plans, estimates, aims, foresees, anticipates, targets, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the issuer or cited from third party sources are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. No Solicitation This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any person who may receive this report or summary. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report or summary and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Performance in the past is not a guide to future performance. SpareBank 1 Markets takes no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication or its contents. Further distribution and jurisdiction Only clients of Sparebank 1 Markets are entitled to receive this Recommendation. This Recommendation may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. This Recommendation shall be governed by and construed under the Norwegian law. 37
Disclaimer Notice to U.S. Investors If this Recommendation is being furnished directly to U.S. recipients by a non-u.s. SpareBank 1 Markets entity in reliance on section (a)(2) of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (each a direct U.S. recipient ), each such direct U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is major U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(4) of Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any direct U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets Inc. ( SpareBank 1 Capital Markets ), a registered U.S. broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. In certain cases, unless prohibited by the provisions of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, this Recommendation may be provided by SpareBank 1 Capital Markets to a U.S. recipient (a SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient ), in which case each such SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient of this Recommendation represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is major U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(4) of Rule 15a-6), or that it is a U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(7) of Rule 15a-6), and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. In such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets accepts responsibility for the content of this Recommendation; however, although it has accepted responsibility for the content of this Recommendation in such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets did not contribute to the preparation of this Recommendation, and the specific authors of the Recommendation are not employed by, and are not associated persons of, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The SpareBank 1 Markets entity that prepared the Recommendation, and the authors of this Recommendation, may not be subject to all of the registration, qualification, disclosure, independence and other U.S. regulatory requirements that apply to SpareBank 1 Capital Markets and its employees and associated persons. Any SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or to engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. Any transaction in the securities discussed in this Recommendation by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The securities referred to in this recommendation may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this Recommendation may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where SpareBank 1 Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. The information in this Recommendation is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but SpareBank 1 Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements as described above within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. 38