Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse

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1 Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse Nils Christian Øyen Finansanalytiker Tlf nils.oyen@sb1markets.no Sparebank 1 Markets AS gjør spesielt oppmerksom på at MING utstedes av Sparebank 1 SMN. Det er vedtatt at Sparebank 1 SMN om kort tid vil bli Sparebank 1 Markets AS' morselskap, med en eierandel på 73.3%. Dette innebærer at Sparebank 1 Markets AS ikke kan anses å være nøytral i forhold til Sparebank 1 SMN, og således at denne anbefalingen ikke representerer en nøytral og uavhengig analyse/vurdering. Denne investeringsanbefalingen er å anse som markedsføringsmateriale. Det gjøres oppmerksom på at anbefalingen ikke er utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser.

2 Kommentarer: Vi ser på tapsabsorberende evne + tvangsemisjon i Santander Konklusjoner De siste 6 årene har vi ventet forgjeves på større emisjoner i spanske banker. Etter at den øverste tilsynsmyndigheten for bankene i euro-sonen i november ble flyttet fra nasjonale organer til den europeiske sentralbanken ECB ser ventetiden ut til å være over. ECB har ikke kastet bort tiden og brukt de to siste månedene til å hviske sine ønsker om kapitalisering i ørene til de 130 største bankene i Europa. Med en CET 1 på magre 8.7% er Banco Santander tynt kapitalisert i alles øyne, også ECB, og med dette bakteppet gjennomførte Santander en rettet emisjon på EUR 7.5mrd (CET bps) i forrige uke, tilsvarende 9.9% av eksisterende EK. Med styrket kapitalsiering i Santander kan andre banker med svak CET 1 som BNP, Deutsche, Commerzbank bl.a. føle seg kallet av markedet og ECB. Norske banker, og spesielt DNB, får juling av lavere oljepris om dagen. Vi ser at tapsabsorberende evne er betydelig styrket for DNB, som kan tåle tap opp til 2.1% av utlån for vi ser røde tall på bunnlinjen. Aksjen handler under historisk trading intervall etter ytterligere fall i oljeprisen. Regionale banker fremstår fortsatt som moderat priset på P/B 0.87 (2014 bok) og P/E 8.4 på 2015E. Lokale banker handles på P/B 0.74 og P/E 8.6X våre 2015E. Kommentarer 1. Kursutvikling i 2015: Regionale sparebanker -3%, lokale +0% mot Oslo Børs 0% og DNB -10%. 2. Aktuelt fremmedkapital: Benchmark kystbanker fondsobligasjon +310bps, ansvarlig +160bps, senior +60bps og OMF +20bps. 3. Aktuelt makro: Kredittveksten for norske husholdninger faller 0.2% i november til 6.3% 4. Prisingssyklus: Basert på 2014 boken er regionbankene priset til P/B 0.87 og lokalbankene til P/B Ukegraf: Vi ser på tapsabsorberende evne. 2

3 Ukegraf: Den tapsabsorberende evnen til norske banker er økt på høyere marginer break-even nivå for DNB økt fra tap på 1.3% i 2007 til 2.1% i 2015 DNB: Loss absorption capacity* and loan losses as % lending *Operating profit pre loan losses ex Vital 2.5 % Pre-loss profit profit 6% of lending in 3yrs 2.0 % Operating profit pre loan losses 1.5 % Significant buffer 1.0 % 0.5 % Loan losses 0.0 % -0.5 % E 15E 16E

4 Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret vi ser på utfallsrommet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og DNB *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% MORG NONG 0.25% MING SRBANK DNB 0.00% -0.25% 4 SVEG Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets

5 Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 12% høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Sensitivitet ROE vs tap op utlån - Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. ROE basert på 2015 estimater 15% Regionale banker taper 200bps pa 10% ROE 2015E DNB taper 300bps pa 5% DNB 0% NONG MING -5% -10% Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. 0.4% MORG SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap på utlån

6 DNB har størst energieksponering, men er motstandsdyktig mot tap grunnet høy andel andre inntekter. MORG har marginal offshore eksponering, men også få andre inntekter å buffre tap mot Sensitivitet EPS vs tap på utlån - Norske banker* *Tap basert på utlån inkludert boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater Regionale banker taper 200bps p.a 20 DNB taper 300bps p.a EPS 2015E, NOK DNB NONG Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 6 0.4% MING 2009 DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG MORG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap i % av utlån

7 Tvangsemisjon i Santander: Henter EUR 7.5mrd, tilsvarende 9.9% av eksisterende EK banken er svakt kapitalisert før emisjon med CET 1 på 8.7% - ECB krever naturlig nok mer Les: Vi er godt kapitalisert i egne øyne. men ECB krever mer (naturlig nok). CET 1 er 11.2% på overgangsregler men kun 8.3% på full innfasing. Glemte visst å nevne det. 7

8 Rom for å kutte boligrenten 60-70bps i 2015 uten marginfall ettersom NIBOR faller fra 1.7% høsten 2014 til under 1.0% sommeren Rente og margin nye boliglån* og NIBOR *Snittrente på nye boliglån over NOK 1m og innenfor 60% av taktst. 20 største banker i Norge bps fra mai 2016? Rente nye boliglån NIBOR Jan 8 Brutto margin = Lånerente - NIBOR Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr Jul 15 Oct Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, EcoWin

9 Markedet venter at NIBOR faller fra dagens 1.5% til 0.95% sommeren 2015 og forblir lave gjennom 2016 => boligrentene skal videre ned, flere kutt venter 9

10 Nyttårsrallyet i bank er allerede reversert nordiske og europeiske banker -5 til -6% i uken som gikk Kursendring forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc w DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] Svensk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Regional sparebank [c.o.p 1 obs] Europeisk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 10

11 DNB og MING -5%, SR og SVEG -2.5% mens NONG flatere på -1% Kursendring norske banker forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc % w DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SMN ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 NORD-NORGE ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANKEN VEST ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 11

12 DNB allerede ned 10% i 2015, etterfulgt av europeisk bank på emisjonsfrykt Totalavkastning* hittil i 2015 Kvartalsrapporter 4Q14 Bank Ticker *Justert for eventuelle utbytter, splitter og tegningsretter 2% 0% 0% 0% -2% -3% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -10% -9% OSEBX Lokale sparebanker Regionale sparebanker Svenske banker Europeisk bank Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. 12 DNB BN Bank Nordea Møre SEB Swedbank Gjensidige Ringerike Handelsbanken DNB SMN SNN SR-Bank Vest Hedmark Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Helgeland Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Sandnes Øst Storebrand Toten Sør Hedmark BNB NDA MORG SEB SWED GJF RING SHB DNB MING NONG SRBANK SVEG SBHE SOAG SBVG HELG NTSG SADG SPOG STB TOTG SOR SBHE Dato 28-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 29-Jan 03-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 06-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb

13 Få i pluss i 2015 (lokale banker i overvekt), mange i minus Totalavkastning finansinstitusjoner i 2015* *Justert for eventuelle utbytte, splitter, emisjoner og tegningsretter Øst - SPOG 4% Østfold-Akershus - SOAG 4% Buskerud-Vestfold - SBVG 2% Gjensidige - GJF 3% Toten - TOTG 2% Nøtterøy - NTSG 2% Møre - MORG 1% Oslo Børs - OSEBX 0% Sør - SOR 0% Helgeland - HELG 0% Sandnes - SADG 0% EK-bevis index - OSEEX -2% Handelsbanken - SHB -3% Nordea - NDA -3% Vest - SVEG -3% SR-BANK - SRBANK -3% SNN - NONG -4% SEB - SEB -5% Ringerike - RING -5% Swedbank - SWED -5% Storebrand - STB -5% SMN - MING DNB - DNB -7% -9% -10% 13-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% %

14 DNB handler under trading intervallet etter kursfall på 5% i forrige uke historisk intervall P/E X P/E* - Nordic and European banks** *Consensus EPS next 12 months forward. **Swedish banks = SHB, NDA, SEB & SWED. Svensk bank tilbake til historisk høye nivåer (P/E 12.5X) Swedish banks DNB 8 DNB har handlet mellom P/E 8.6X og 10X siste halvannet året Rabatten er lavere enn normalt, nå ca 30% DNB discount to Swedish banks Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 14

15 DNB faller relativt til svenske banker på nytt fall i oljeprisen Brent $5 lavere til under $50 i uken som gikk DNB relative to Swedish banks* and oil price** Jan Mar May 15 DNB relative to Swedish banks Oil price Jul 12 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 13 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul USD/Barrel * = 0. ** Brent, USD Sep Nov Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin

16 DNB svakere enn både sparebanker og svensk bank 16

17 Verdsettelsen av DNB under et stigende P/B bånd over tid positiv reprising over tid, som for svenske banker på økte utbytter i perioden Price/Tangible Book* - Nordic banks *Ex goodwill Swedish banks DNB Dec, 2013 CCB at 1.0% Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 17

18 Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og mindre oljeeksponering sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Pris/Bok* - Nordiske og europeiske banker *eks immaterielle eiendeler. Regionale sparebanker SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG 2.00 Svensk bank 1.75 Svensk bank P/B DNB Regionale sparebanker 0.75 Europeisk bank Jan May Sep 09 Jan May Sep 10 Jan May Sep 11 Jan May Sep 12 Jan May Sep 13 Jan May Sep 14 Jan May Sep 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 18 Regionale sparebanker priset som europeisk bank

19 Rabatten i regionbankene lavere etter kursfall i DNB relativt sett premium i MING og delvis NONG, oljerabatt i SRBANK Pris/Bok - Sparebanker og DNB * Inkludert utbytte ved årsslutt. Konsern DNB MING 0.9 NONG SRBANK % premie/rabatt 10 Premie/rabatt vs DNB målt ved P/B -10 MING NONG -30 SRBANK -50 Apr Jul Oct 10 Jan Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr 15 Jul Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 19

20 Regionale sparebanker på P/B 0.87 på 2014 boken bedring i prisingen for de lokale også på P/B 0.74 (2014), rabatten kraftig inn i 2014 Pris/Bok* - Regionale og lokale sparebanker * Kurs / Bokført egenkapital pr bevis Regionale Lokale sparebanker Rabatt Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 20

21 Norge: Lavere kredittvekst for husholdningene i november (6.3%, -0.2% fra okt) lavere boligrenter i 2015 (ca -0.8%) tilsier økt vekst, men økonomisk usikkerhet negativ impuls 21

22 CDS: Kredittspreadene ut i desember og januar for DNB og svensk bank CDS Nordic banks - Senior bond, 5yrs Basis points 135 Last month DANSKE 65 SWED 55 NDA DNB SEB SHB Jan Mar May Jul 2013 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2014 Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2015 Source: Reuters EcoWin 22 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cash-markedet

23 Kun mindre bevegelser for fondsobligasjoner i ansvarlige lån i 2015 Swap-spread kapitalstruktur*, bps over NIBOR *5 års løpetid. OMF og Senior Nordea Norge. Ansvarlig lån og fondsobligasjon regionbank (ny type) Fondsobligasjon ny type Ansvarlig lån ny type Senior OMF Source: SpareBank 1 Markets Credit Research 23

24 Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang i 4Q Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 Dato Bank Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing. 21-Jan-14 Tysnes Spb 20m Jan-14 Sandnes Spb 300m Feb-14 BN Bank ASA 400m Mar-14 Eika Boligkreditt AS 200m 350 Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 18-Mar-14 Bank 1 Oslo Akershus AS 200m m May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets jan/ 04 Gammel type 24 mai/ 05 okt/ 06 Gammel type med reg. call feb/ 08 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) jul/ 09 Ny konvertibel med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ Jun-14 Soknedal Spb 20m Jun-14 Fana Spb 200m Jun-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 350m Jun-14 Hjelmeland Spb 50m Jul-14 Eika Gruppen AS 100m Jun-14 Eiendomskreditt AS 35m Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 75m Jul-14 Lillestrøm Spb 60m Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m Sep Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA Grong Spb 50m 35m Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 SB1 BV 100m Oct-14 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m

25 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) spreadene inn i 2014, men noe ut siste måneden. Bank 1 OA på +165bps 700 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets Protector Forsikring Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse SRBANK mai/ 05 Gammel type 25 okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Gammel type med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 mai/ 16 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang Dato Bank Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 05-Feb-14 Spb Sogn og Fjordane 12-Feb-14 Aurskog Spb 07-Mar-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 19-Mar-14 Drangedal og Tørdal Spb 26-Mar-14 Eika Gruppen AS 24-Apr-14 Grong Spb 300m m m m m m May-14 Spb Bien 40m May-14 Åfjord Spb 30m May-14 Landkreditt Bank AS 75m May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 45m Jun-14 Spb 1 Nord-Norge 350m Jun-14 Haugesund Spb 125m Jun-14 Spb 1 Ringerike Hadeland 200m Jun-14 Gjensidige Bank ASA 250m Jun-14 Hjartdal og Gransherad Spb 25m Jun Jun-14 Rørosbanken Røros Spb Spb Vest 60m 500m Jun-14 Spb 1 Gudbrandsdal 60m Jun-14 Sunndal Spb 50m Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 125m Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 150m Sep-14 Melhus Spb 02-Oct-14 Gjensidige Forsikring 02-Oct-14 80m mrd 150 Surnadal Spb 50m Oct-14 Indre Sogn Spb 50m Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m Nov-14 Eiendomskreditt 125m Nov-14 Bamble SB 30m Nov-14 SB 1 Nordvest 150m Nov-14 Jernbanepersonalets SB 50m Dec-14 SB Sogn og Fjordane m Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m Dec-14 Høland og Setskog SB 200m Dec-14 SB 1 Lom og Skjåk 25m 205

26 Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.60 til Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr Pris/Bok (2014 bok) 15% ROE 2015E 15% 12% % 10.0 % 9.4 % 12% 11.3 % 10.2 % 9.9 % 9.2 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 8.1 % 8.2 % 8.2 % % 8.8 % 8.3 % 6.6 % % 6% % 14% 13% % % % 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets

27 P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. P/E 2015E vs tap på utlån- Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 20 MORG 2008/09 Regionale bankser taper ca 30bps SVEG SRBANK NONG P/E 2015E MING 15 DNB DNB taper 70bps 5 0 Normaliserte tap 0.0% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets % Peak tap 0.4% Tap på utlån 0.6% 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.8% 1.0%

28 P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 svensk bank handler 11-14X våre 2014E P/E basert på 2014 og 2015 estimater - Nordiske banker 14 P/E 15E 12 P/E 14E Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets

29 Verdsettelse og estimater Pris/Bok Core Tier I SR-Bank Midt-Norge Nord-Norge Møre Vest Øst Sandnes Toten Helgeland Sør Buskerud-Vest Østf-Akershus Nøtterøy Ringerike ROE Utbytte Direkteavkastning* P/E EPS Ticker Kurs (eks hybrid) Bok E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG SPOG SADG TOTG HELG SOR SBVG SOAG NTSG RING % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % 13.5 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 12.9 % 14.2 % 15.7 % 13.1 % 17.8 % % 13.2 % 12.6 % 10.9 % 11.7 % 12.0 % 8.5 % 10.8 % 10.2 % 10.0 % 11.4 % 10.7 % 11.8 % 9.5 % 13.7 % 14.2 % 14.4 % 12.4 % 13.7 % 16.2 % 7.5 % 13.4 % 9.9 % 12.4 % 13.5 % 12.1 % 14.1 % 10.6 % 9.9 % 11.3 % 10.2 % 9.2 % 10.0 % 9.4 % 6.6 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 8.2 % 8.3 % 8.2 % 8.8 % 8.1 % % 4.1 % 5.5 % 5.9 % 8.2 % 8.5 % 2.9 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 5.6 % 5.0 % 3.4 % 4.8 % 6.4 % 3.9 % 4.6 % 5.9 % 5.5 % 6.6 % 6.1 % 3.9 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 5.6 % 5.3 % 4.0 % 4.0 % 5.8 % DNB % % 14.0 % 11.2 % % 4.7 % % 12.4 % 10.6 % 12.7 % 13.7 % 12.2 % 8.9 % 10.1 % 8.2 % 5.0 % 5.5 % 4.9 % 4.9 % 5.3 % 4.7 % Gjennomsnitt* Regionbanker Lokalbanker 13.0 % 11.9 % 13.2 % Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Gjennomsnitt eks DNB. Regionbanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Resten defineres som lokale

30 Anbefalinger og kursmål Navn DNB Bank Ticker DNB SR-Bank SMN SNN Møre Vest SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG % 22% 22% 12% 22% Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp % 4.1 % 5.5 % 5.9 % 8.2 % % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % Buskerud-Vestfold Sandnes Toten Helgeland Østfold-Akershus Ringerike Nøtterøy Øst SBVG SADG TOTG HELG SOAG RING NTSG SPOG % 6% -1% 4% 14% 12% 9% 3% Kjøp Nøytral Nøytral Nøytral Kjøp Kjøp Nøytral Kjøp % 2.9 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 3.4 % 6.4 % 4.8 % 8.5 % % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 15.7 % 17.8 % 13.1 % 13.5 % % 4.8 % % 13.3 % Regionbanker Lokalbanker Dagens Kursmål PotensialeAnbefaling kurs % Kjøp 22% 7% Prising på dagens kurs* P/B 14 P/E 14E Yield 14E % Prising på kursmål ** P/E 14E P/B 14E Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Verdsettelse basert på dagens kurs og våre estimater ** Verdsettelse basert på kursmål og våre estimater *** CET I = Ren kjernekapitaldekning (Tier I eks fondsobligasjoner) CET I*** % 12.6 %

31 Økt handel i sparebanker de to siste årene 2014 slo 2013 på målstreken, høyest omsetning i SRBANK Omsetning sparebanker januar - desember 2014 Sparebanker - Omsetning i NOK mill* Bevis og aksjer *Per år. Egenkapitalbevis og aksjer (SRBANK) Kilde: Oslo Børs SR-BANK SMN SNN Helgeland Møre Vest Sandnes Øst Ringerike Toten Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Melhus Skue Sparebank Nøtterøy Aurskog Klepp Sør Hol Indre sogn Sum SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % % 30% 15% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % Sum Kilde: Oslo Børs 31 Omsetning hele 2013 Ticker NOK mill NOK mill

32 Motsyklisk buffer på 1.0% gir krav for CET 1 på % i juli 2016 høy kredittvekst kan imidlertid føre til opprevidering av motsyklisk, men neppe mer enn 50bps Minstekrav og bufferkrav 16% 14% *Basel II, overgangsregler. SIFI banker Dagens nivå regionale sparebanker Margin % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 32 Kombinerte bufferkrav inkl motsyklisk estimat 1% 8.5% Vi tror bankene vil holde en betryggende margin mot minimums-kravene for å redusere sannsynligheten for kupongstopp på fondsobligasjoner. Betryggende margin bps Kombinerte bufferkrav: 7.5% +1.0% = 8.5% Krav ren kjernekapital juli % SIFI banker Minstekrav EK 4.5% 01/01/1900

33 Kapitalstruktur norske og svenske banker Basel 2 overgangsregler Sammensetning av bankenes kapitaldekning* *Pr 3Q14 inkl 50% av overskudd YTD. Basert på Overgangsregler - Basel I gulv (80%) DNB 12.6 % Nordea Norge 0.3 % 12.2 % 1.5 % BN Bank DNB Nordea 1.1 % 15.2 % Hedmark 1.5 % 13.6 % 13.2 % 1.1 % Sogn og Fjordane 13.2 % 1.3 % 12.9 % Møre 3.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Nord-Norge Sør 2.3 % 1.3 % 12.4 % 1.4 % Vest 11.4 % 1.4 % SR-BANK 11.3 % 1.7 % Midt-Norge 11.2 % CET % 2.3 % 1.2 % Tier % 2.3 % 1.8 % Ringerike %% 16.9 % Østfold-Akershus 0.0 % 15.7 % Buskerud-Vestfold 1.6 % 0.0 % 14.2 % Øst 1.3 % 0.5 % 13.5 % Helgeland 13.2 % Nøtterøy 13.1 % Bank 1 OA 13.0 % Toten 2.0 % 1.2 % 2% 4% 6% 1.4 % % % 4.1 % 12.3 % 0% Lokale sparebanker 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.0 % 12.6 % Sandnes Regionale sparebanker Tier % 17.8 % Telemark % 2.8 % 8% 10% 12% 14% 0.2 % 2.1 % 16% 18% 20%

34 Kapitalisering: Styrket og likere etter 2008 Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd. Regionbanker SRBANK, MING, NONG 14% 1Q09: 80% 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 12% Lokale banker DNB 1Q08: 90% Region banker 10% 8% Emisjoner 2009/2010: DNB SRBANK MING SVEG Emisjon SPOG 2011: 6% Emisjoner 2012: SRBANK MING Emisjoner 2013: MORG NONG NONG 4% 34 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes

35 Overføringer til Boligkreditt flater ut på 50% av boliglån? Tilsynet følger opp grad av overføringer på selskapsbasis gjennom Pillar 2 Andel boliglån overført til Boligkredittforetak* 100% *Pr. 3Q14 For DNB er det andel boliglån finansiert med OMF 93% Overført pr siste kvartal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% DNB har overført 86% av boliglån til Boligkreditt og utstedt OMF tilsvarende 65%. Overført Overført % av totale utlån 74% 68% 64% 52% 52% 53% 51% 49% 45% 45% 41% 41% 41% 40% 39% 35% 30% 37% 37% 36% 30% 28% 20% 10% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 35

36 Økte marginer på boliglån i Sverige reduserer nasjonale forskjeller kapitalkravene etterhvert også likere (25% gulv på risikovekter boliglån) Bruttomargin på nye boliglån - Sverige og Norge* *Margin før fundingkostnad i %. Flytende rente begge land (Sverige 3 måneder) 2.4 Norge 2.1 Sverige Q Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 36

37 Uro i Hellas, men ikke smitte til Italia og Spania enda 37

38 Disclaimer Standards and supervisory authorities This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations ( Recommendation(s) ) prepared and issued by SpareBank 1 Markets AS ( SpareBank 1 Markets ) cf. the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (No: Verdipapirhandelloven) section 3-10 with further regulations. SpareBank 1 Markets complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association ( and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts ( The lead analyst/author (see front page) is employed by SpareBank 1 Markets, which is legally responsible for this report and is under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). Sources and method for assessment Important sources of information: the issuer, including its quarterly and annual reports, Oslo Stock Exchange and Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå). Sources are cited when referred to in the Recommendation. We use only sources we find reliable and accurate, unless otherwise stated. For shares and share related instruments Recommendations are based on estimates by using various valuation methods. Recommendation structure Our Recommendations are based on a six-month horizon, and on absolute performance. We apply a three-stage recommendation structure where Buy indicates an expected annualized return of greater than +15%; Neutral, from 0% to +10%; Sell, less than 0%. Current Recommendations of the Research Department Refers to Recommendations published prior to this Recommendation and which are required disclosed in accordance with Securities Trading Regulations (No: Verdipapirforskriften) section 3-11 (4). Current Recommendations of the Research Department Buy Neutral Sell Percent % % % Analyst independence The views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect(s) the personal views of the analyst(s) principally responsible for this Recommendation about the subject securities or issuers, and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The Analysts employed by SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary and are members of the bonus pool. However no part of the analysts salaries or bonus relates to the performance of their Recommendations, directly to investment banking services or other services provided by SpareBank 1 Markets or related companies to issuers. 38

39 Disclaimer Chinese Walls and Conflicts of interests All employees of SpareBank 1 Markets are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to inside information. SpareBank 1 Markets operates a system of Chinese Walls and other organizational procedures in order to control the flow of information within the firm and minimize conflicts of interest within SpareBank1 Markets and between clients. The Research Department is part of this system. Sparebank 1 Markets has established reassuring procedures to prevent conflict of interests. These procedures are documented in Sparebank 1 Markets Routines for Research Department and in the company's General Routines. As mentioned the Research Department is separated from the Corporate Finance Department with "Chinese walls" to control the flow of information. This Recommendation has been prepared by Sparebank 1 Markets Research Department independently, without impact from other departments of Sparebank 1 Markets. Department of Compliance shall be referred to if the objectivity and independence of the analyst can be questioned. Financial instruments held by the analyst(s) and/or close associate of the analyst in the issuer/ issuers herein: 0 Other material interest (if any): None SpareBank 1 Markets does not alone or together with related companies or persons, hold a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by SpareBank 1 Markets, or holds other interests likely to affect the objectivity of a recommendation. For important disclosures, such as an overview of all financial instruments in which SpareBank 1 Markets are market makers or all financial instruments where SpareBank 1 Markets have been lead managers or co-lead managers over the previous 12 months, and all issuers of financial instruments to whom SpareBank 1 Markets have rendered investment banking services over the previous 12 months, please refer to SpareBank 1 Markets equity research website: (login required) Please note that agreements and services subject to confidentiality are excluded. Sparebank 1 Markets parents companies provide a variety of investments services, including banking and financial services. It is possible that Sparebank 1 Markets parents companies will have information regarding the issuer or will be engaged with the issuer in such matters. However such information will not be available for the persons/department providing this report. Sparebank 1 Markets has made no agreement with the issuer to write this research report. This research report has not been discussed or disclosed with the issuer before publishing. Previous Recommendations For an overview of SpareBank 1 Markets Recommendations regarding the financial instruments of the issuer the past 12 months, including data on changes in such Recommendations please see SpareBank 1 Markets website, (log-in required). Planned updates Unless explicitly stated otherwise in this Recommendation, SpareBank 1 Markets expects, but do not undertake, to issue updates to this report following the publication of new figures or forecasts by the issuer covered, or upon the occurrence of other events which could potentially have a material effect on it. 39

40 Disclaimer Risks Generally, investments in financial instruments involve risks. For specific risks related to our various Recommendations, please see the latest relevant Recommendation. The target prices on companies in the SpareBank 1 Markets Research universe reflect the subjective view of the analyst about the absolute price that financial instruments should trade at, within our six-month recommendation horizon. The target price is based on an absolute valuation approach, which is detailed in our Recommendations. The target price can differ from the absolute valuation, in accordance with the analyst's subjective view on the trading or cyclical patterns for a particular financial instrument, or a possible discount/premium to reflect factors such as market capitalization, ownership structure and/or changes in the same, and company-specific issues. This Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation has been prepared by SpareBank 1 Markets from information obtained from public sources not all of which are controlled by SpareBank 1 Markets. Such information is believed to be reliable and although it has not been independently verified, SpareBank 1 Markets has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information is true and not misleading. Notwithstanding such reasonable efforts, SpareBank 1 Markets makes no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. SpareBank 1 Markets assumes no obligation to update the information contained in this Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation to the extent that it is subsequently determined to be false or inaccurate. This Recommendation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the issuer and/or the industry in which it operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words believes, expects, predicts, intends, projects, plans, estimates, aims, foresees, anticipates, targets, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the issuer or cited from third party sources are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. No Solicitation This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any person who may receive this report or summary. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report or summary and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Performance in the past is not a guide to future performance. SpareBank 1 Markets takes no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication or its contents. Further distribution and jurisdiction Only clients of Sparebank 1 Markets are entitled to receive this Recommendation. This Recommendation may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. This Recommendation shall be governed by and construed under the Norwegian law. 40

41 Disclaimer Notice to U.S. Investors If this Recommendation is being furnished directly to U.S. recipients by a non-u.s. SpareBank 1 Markets entity in reliance on section (a)(2) of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (each a direct U.S. recipient ), each such direct U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is major U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(4) of Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any direct U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets Inc. ( SpareBank 1 Capital Markets ), a registered U.S. broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. In certain cases, unless prohibited by the provisions of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, this Recommendation may be provided by SpareBank 1 Capital Markets to a U.S. recipient (a SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient ), in which case each such SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient of this Recommendation represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is major U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(4) of Rule 15a-6), or that it is a U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(7) of Rule 15a-6), and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. In such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets accepts responsibility for the content of this Recommendation; however, although it has accepted responsibility for the content of this Recommendation in such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets did not contribute to the preparation of this Recommendation, and the specific authors of the Recommendation are not employed by, and are not associated persons of, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The SpareBank 1 Markets entity that prepared the Recommendation, and the authors of this Recommendation, may not be subject to all of the registration, qualification, disclosure, independence and other U.S. regulatory requirements that apply to SpareBank 1 Capital Markets and its employees and associated persons. Any SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or to engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. Any transaction in the securities discussed in this Recommendation by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The securities referred to in this recommendation may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this Recommendation may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where SpareBank 1 Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. The information in this Recommendation is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but SpareBank 1 Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements as described above within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. 41