Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse 26.01.2015 Nils Christian Øyen Finansanalytiker Tlf +47 99 500 240 nils.oyen@sb1markets.no Sparebank 1 Markets AS gjør spesielt oppmerksom på at MING utstedes av Sparebank 1 SMN. Det er vedtatt at Sparebank 1 SMN om kort tid vil bli Sparebank 1 Markets AS' morselskap, med en eierandel på 73.3%. Dette innebærer at Sparebank 1 Markets AS ikke kan anses å være nøytral i forhold til Sparebank 1 SMN, og således at denne anbefalingen ikke representerer en nøytral og uavhengig analyse/vurdering. Denne investeringsanbefalingen er å anse som markedsføringsmateriale. Det gjøres oppmerksom på at anbefalingen ikke er utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser.
Kommentarer: Vi ser på 4Q estimater Konklusjoner Europeiske bankaksjer opp 6% i forrige uke på annonsering av kvantitative lettelser fra ECB (kjøper obligasjoner fra stat og bedrift for EUR 60mrd i måneden til september 2016). Europeiske kredittspreader vender inn for både banker og high yield. Rapporteringssesongen begynner i Norge onsdag denne uken med Nordea og BN Bank. Vi venter i sum at kurstap på verdipapirer og noe høyere gruppevise tapsavsetninger på svakere makroutsikter vil prege 4Q-rapportene, men på den positive siden ser vi også at rentemarginene utvikler seg bedre enn vi trodde i høst på lavere marginpress. Renten på boliglån skal videre ned etter fall i NIBOR på 10bps i uken som gikk, bankenes marginer skal derimot ikke ned. Spreadene for norske fondsobligasjoner og ansvarlige lån svakt ut (ref ansvarlig lån i Eika Boligkreditt på +185bps). SB1 SNN tar tap på NOK 300m på russisk virksomhet, ikke uventet gittt utviklingen i regionen, men høyere enn ventet i 4Q14 isolert sett. Begrenset eksponering igjen på NOK 315m. Boligbygging i Norge stabil i desember, men svakt nedad siste året. Vi skifter bok fra 2014 til 2015, nyt det nye året på lavere verdsettelse: Regionale banker fortsatt som moderat priset på P/B 0.82 og P/E 8.2 på 2015E. Lokale banker handles på P/B 0.72 og P/E 9.4X våre 2015E. Kommentarer 1. Ukegraf: Vi ser på 4Q estimater norske sparebanker. 2. Kursutvikling i 2015: Regionale sparebanker -3%, lokale +2% mot Oslo Børs 4% og -2%. 3. Aktuelt fremmedkapital: Benchmark kystbanker fondsobligasjon +320bps, ansvarlig +170bps, senior +57bps og OMF +19bps. 4. Aktuelt makro: Boligbygging i Norge stabil i desember, men svak negativ trend siste 12 måneder 5. Prisingssyklus: Basert på 2015 boken er regionbankene priset til P/B 0.82 og lokalbankene til P/B 0.72. 2
Ukegraf: Estimater norske sparebanker 4Q14 kurstap på finansielle instrumenter og mulige gruppeavsetninger på tap trekker ned i kvartalet Estimater sparebanker 4Q14 NOK mill SRBANK SVEG 624 290 178 584 103 39 458 283 132 383 212 20 Driftskostnader Resultat før tap Tap på utlån Resultat før skatt Resultat etter skatt -531 561-79 482 362-377 349-30 319 277-453 420-41 379 271 Resultat pr bevis (ikke justert) 1.41 1.85 ROE rapportert ROE eks engangseffekter 9.4 % 11.1 % Rentemargin justert* 1.04% Rentenetto Provisjonsinntekter Andre inntekter (inkl verdipapir) MING NONG MORG SOR SPOG SADG HELG SBVG RING SOAG TOTG NTSG 277 32 11 380 71 0 152 10 17 116 17 5 118 17-2 80 55 37 78 43 24 74 59 21 64 13 1 25 19 11-338 276-252 24 30-147 173-23 150 83-202 249-20 228 164-77 102-9 93 76-74 63-13 50 39-67 66-12 54 43-109 63-14 50 42-72 73-9 64 53-84 70-12 59 46-43 35-12 25 18-35 20-3 17 12 1.33 0.14 4.34 4.86 1.53 3.12 1.70 1.51 3.69 4.36 1.81 2.85 12.3 % 11.2 % 8.8 % 10.9 % 1.3 % 5.5 % 7.2 % 9.6 % 9.2 % 9.4 % 10.9 % 9.7 % 7.2 % 7.0 % 8.0 % 7.8 % 7.8 % 7.7 % 8.2 % 7.9 % 9.6 % 9.3 % 6.7 % 5.8 % 7.2 % 7.4 % 1.20% 1.12% 1.34% 1.35% 1.09% 1.34% 1.12% 1.23% 1.02% 1.01% 1.02% 1.30% 0.84% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets *Juster for rentenivå og egenkapital. % av utlån + innskudd 3
Vi tror på en flat eller svak positiv utvikling for rentemarginen i fjerde kvartal lavere rente på boliglån mer enn balansert av lavere rentenivå + lavere marginpress bedrift marginpresset fra 2Q og 3Q avtar Netto rentemargin* - Norske banker *Rentenetto eks rentebidrag fra egenkapital. Inkl Boligkreditt. % av utlån og innskudd 1.70% 1.45% Tilpasning til Basel II => reduserte kapitalkrav Finanskrise Høyere fundingkostnad og ventede tap Økte kapitalkrav 1.20% 4Q14 0.95% Snitt regionale og lokale sparebanker Priskrig på boliglån. jakter markedsandel Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets 0.70% 4 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14
Sannsynlig at gruppevise tapsavsetninger øker i 4Q på svakere makroutsikter men få konstaterte tap i kvartalet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. Medianverdier 1.75% 2014 Lokale sparebanker 1.50% Regionale sparebanker 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% -0.25% 5 Regionale: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG Lokale: SBVG, RVSBG, RING, NTSG, HELG, SPOG, SADG Kilde: Kvartalsrapporter, SpareBank 1 Markets 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14
Rom for å kutte boligrenten 70-80bps i 2015 uten marginfall ettersom NIBOR faller fra 1.70% høsten 2014 til under 0.8% sommeren 2015 (FRA renter) Rente og margin nye boliglån* og NIBOR *Snittrente på nye boliglån over NOK 1m og innenfor 60% av taktst. 20 største banker i Norge 4.10-30bps fra mai 2016? 3.70 3.30 2.90 2.50 Rente nye boliglån 2.10 1.70 NIBOR 1.30 0.90 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 Jan 6 Brutto margin = Lånerente - NIBOR Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr Jul 15 Oct Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, EcoWin
Markedet venter at NIBOR faller fra dagens 1.4% til 0.8% sommeren 2015 og forblir lave gjennom 2016 => boligrentene skal videre ned, flere kutt venter uten lavere margin 7
Sterk oppgang for alle bankaksjer i forrige uke på QE ECB åpner sjekkheftet og europeisk bank stiger 6%. Svenske bank/ +5%, regionbanker +2% Kursendring forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 w4 2015 [c.o.p 1 obs] Svensk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Regional sparebank [c.o.p 1 obs] Europeisk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 8
SRBANK og med størst oppgang i uken som gikk NONG ned 1% på resultatvarsel etter nedskrivninger på NOK 300m i russisk virksomhet Kursendring norske banker forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc 6 5 4 % 3 2 1 0-1 [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SMN ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 NORD-NORGE ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] w4 2015 SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANKEN VEST ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 9
Norge: Stabilt nivå på boligbygging i desember trend siste året er svakt nedover fra november 2013 10
og regionale fortsatt i minus i 2015, resten i pluss Totalavkastning* hittil i 2015 *Justert for eventuelle utbytter, splitter og tegningsretter 5% 4% Kvartalsrapporter 4Q14 Bank Ticker 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -2% -3% -4% -3% OSEBX Svenske banker Lokale sparebanker Europeisk bank Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. 11 Regionale sparebanker BN Bank Nordea Møre SEB Swedbank Gjensidige Ringerike Handelsbanken SMN SNN SR-Bank Vest Hedmark Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Helgeland Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Sandnes Øst Storebrand Toten Sør Hedmark 26.01.2015 BNB NDA MORG SEB SWED GJF RING SHB MING NONG SRBANK SVEG SBHE SOAG SBVG HELG NTSG SADG SPOG STB TOTG SOR SBHE Dato 28-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 29-Jan 03-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 06-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb
STB faller på lavere renteutsikter. Alle regionbankene i rødt Totalavkastning finansinstitusjoner i 2015* *Justert for eventuelle utbytte, splitter, emisjoner og tegningsretter Øst - SPOG 9% Buskerud-Vestfold - SBVG 8% Nordea - NDA 6% Gjensidige - GJF 5% Nøtterøy - NTSG 5% Handelsbanken - SHB 4% Oslo Børs - OSEBX 4% Østfold-Akershus - SOAG 4% Ringerike - RING 2% Helgeland - HELG 2% SEB - SEB 2% Møre - MORG 0% Sør - SOR 0% Swedbank - SWED 0% Vest - SVEG 0% Toten - TOTG -1% - -2% EK-bevis index - OSEEX -2% Sandnes - SADG -2% SNN - NONG -4% SR-BANK - SRBANK -5% SMN - MING Storebrand - STB -20% 12-6% -16% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 26.01.2015 15%
handler nederst i trading intervallet siste to år (P/E 8.6 10X) rabatten mot svenske banker ut mot 35% P/E* - and Swedish banks** *Consensus EPS next 12 months forward. **Swedish banks = SHB, NDA, SEB & SWED. 13 Swedish banks 12 Svensk bank tilbake til historisk høye nivåer (P/E 12.5X) 11 10 9 8 har handlet mellom P/E 8.6X og 10X siste halvannet året. 7 6 5-5 Rabatten er lavere enn normalt, nå ca 33% discount to Swedish banks -15-25 -35 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 13
faller fortsatt relativt til svenske banker Brent uendret i uken som gikk relative to Swedish banks* and oil price** 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16-18 Jan Mar May 14 124 relative to Swedish banks 114 104 94 84 USD/Barrel USD/Barrel *31.12.2011 = 0. ** Brent, USD 74 64 54 Oil price 44 Jul 12 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 13 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 14 Sep Nov Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin
falt for mye relativt til sparebankene? hentet seg inn noen prosenter i forrige uke 15
Den positive reprisingen av på økte utbytteforventinger brutt i 4Q lavere oljepris øker kredittrisikoen og reduserer utbytteforventningene, men prisingen lav Price/Tangible Book* - Nordic banks *Ex goodwill 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Jan Swedish banks 12 Dec, 2013 CCB at 1.0% Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 16
Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og mindre oljeeksponering sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Pris/Bok* - Nordiske og europeiske banker *eks immaterielle eiendeler. Regionale sparebanker SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG 2.00 Svensk bank 1.75 Svensk bank P/B 1.90 1.50 1.25 1.00 Regionale sparebanker 0.75 Europeisk bank 0.50 0.25 0.00 Jan May Sep 09 Jan May Sep 10 Jan May Sep 11 Jan May Sep 12 Jan May Sep 13 Jan May Sep 14 Jan May Sep 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 17 Regionale sparebanker priset som europeisk bank
Rabatten i regionbankene noe ut igjen etter sterk oppgang i SRBANK fra premie til rabatt mot MING og NONG Pris/Bok - Sparebanker og * Inkludert utbytte ved årsslutt. Konsern. 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 MING NONG SRBANK 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 % premie/rabatt 10 Premie/rabatt vs målt ved P/B -10 MING NONG -30 SRBANK -50 Apr Jul Oct 10 Jan Apr Jul 11 Oct Jan Apr Jul 12 Oct Jan Apr Jul 13 Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 Oct Jan Apr 15 Jul Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 18
Rabatten i de lokale sparebankene er kraftig redusert siste året halvert fra -30% til -15% Pris/Bok* - Regionale og lokale sparebanker * Kurs / Bokført egenkapital pr bevis. 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 Regionale 1.00 0.75 0.50 Lokale sparebanker 0.25 10-5 -20-35 Rabatt 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 19
CDS: Kredittspreadene flate i januar for og svensk bank CDS Nordic banks - Senior bond, 5yrs Basis points 135 Last month 125 115 105 95 85 75 DANSKE 65 SWED 55 NDA SEB SHB 45 35 Jan Mar May Jul 2013 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2014 Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2015 Source: Reuters EcoWin 20 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cash-markedet
Noe spreadutgang for fondsobligasjoner og ansvarlige lån i 2015 Swap-spread kapitalstruktur*, bps over NIBOR *5 års løpetid. OMF og Senior Nordea Norge. Ansvarlig lån og fondsobligasjon regionbank (ny type) 600 600 500 500 400 400 Fondsobligasjon ny type 300 200 Ansvarlig lån ny type 100 300 200 100 Senior OMF 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets Credit Research 21
Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang i 4Q Vegårshei på +400bps Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type 800 700 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 Dato Bank Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing. 21-Jan-14 Tysnes Spb 20m 450 22-Jan-14 Sandnes Spb 300m 375 25-Feb-14 BN Bank ASA 400m 375 05-Mar-14 Eika Boligkreditt AS 200m 350 Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 18-Mar-14 Bank 1 Oslo Akershus AS 200m 350 35m 350 27-May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets jan/ 04 Gammel type 22 mai/ 05 okt/ 06 Gammel type med reg. call feb/ 08 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) jul/ 09 Ny konvertibel med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 13-Jun-14 Soknedal Spb 20m 400 18-Jun-14 Fana Spb 200m 325 25-Jun-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 350m 310 27-Jun-14 Hjelmeland Spb 50m 380 03-Jul-14 Eika Gruppen AS 100m 350 27-Jun-14 Eiendomskreditt AS 35m 330 09-Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 75m 330 10-Jul-14 Lillestrøm Spb 60m 350 21-Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m 350 03-Sep-14 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA Grong Spb 50m 35m 370 335 26-Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m 280 30-Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m 300 14-Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m 300 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 23-Oct-14 SB1 BV 100m 290 Bank 1 OA 200m 305 16-Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m 305 19-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m 330 15-Jan-15 Vegårshei Spb 15m 400 10-Dec-14 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 26.01.2015
Ansvarlige lån (LT II) spreadet ut siste månedene Eika Boligkreditt +185bps 700 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets Protector Forsikring Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 500 400 SRBANK 300 200 100 0 mai/ 05 Gammel type 23 okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Gammel type med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 mai/ 16 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang Dato Bank 05-Feb-14 Spb Sogn og Fjordane 12-Feb-14 Aurskog Spb 07-Mar-14 Spb 1 Boligkreditt AS 19-Mar-14 Drangedal og Tørdal Spb 26-Mar-14 Eika Gruppen AS 24-Apr-14 Grong Spb Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 300m 180 85m 185 1600m 225 30m 215 125m 230 35m 205 15-May-14 Spb Bien 40m 205 30-May-14 Åfjord Spb 30m 200 27-May-14 Landkreditt Bank AS 75m 160 27-May-14 Verd Boligkreditt AS 45m 190 12-Jun-14 Spb 1 Nord-Norge 350m 150 04-Jun-14 Haugesund Spb 125m 170 12-Jun-14 Spb 1 Ringerike Hadeland 200m 155 17-Jun-14 Gjensidige Bank ASA 250m 155 17-Jun-14 Hjartdal og Gransherad Spb 25m 200 25-Jun-14 27-Jun-14 Rørosbanken Røros Spb Spb Vest 60m 500m 170 150 27-Jun-14 Spb 1 Gudbrandsdal 60m 190 25-Jun-14 Sunndal Spb 50m 180 09-Jul-14 Storebrand Bank ASA 125m 160 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 150m 195 15-Sep-14 Melhus Spb 80m 160 02-Oct-14 Gjensidige Forsikring 1.2mrd 150 02-Oct-14 Surnadal Spb 50m 165 03-Oct-14 Indre Sogn Spb 50m 170 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 145 05-Nov-14 Eiendomskreditt 125m 185 07-Nov-14 Bamble SB 30m 180 11-Nov-14 SB 1 Nordvest 150m 175 11-Nov-14 Jernbanepersonalets SB 50m 180 08-Dec-14 SB Sogn og Fjordane m 155 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 165 16-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog SB 200m 195 16-Dec-14 SB 1 Lom og Skjåk 25m 205 21-Jan-15 Eika Boligkreditt 50m 185
Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.60 til 1.0. Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr 31.12.2014. 15% 2.00 15% Pris/Bok (2014 bok) 14% 14% ROE 2015E 11% 10.9 % 10.1 % 9.5 % 8.8 % 8.3 % 1.00 12% 10.8 % 1.50 2.13 9.6 % 10% 8.0 % 8.1 % 7.9 % 7.7 % 6.8 % 8.0 % 2.10 8% 7.4 % 5.6 % 1.79 1.48 0.50 0.00 1.07 1.03 16% 6% 4% 0.89 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.76 0.71 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.55 2% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 24 26.01.2015
P/E: og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 svensk bank handler 11-14X våre 2014E P/E basert på 2014 og 2015 estimater - Nordiske banker 14 P/E 15E 12 P/E 14E 10 8 14.1 6 12.4 12.3 4 11.1 10.8 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.2 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.1 2 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 25 26.01.2015
P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. P/E 2015E vs tap på utlån- Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater 25 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 20 MORG 2008/09 Regionale bankser taper ca 30bps SVEG SRBANK NONG P/E 2015E MING 15 10 2009 taper 70bps 5 0 Normaliserte tap 0.0% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 26 0.25% Peak tap 0.5% Tap på utlån 0.7% 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.9% 1.1%
Verdsettelse og estimater Pris/Bok Core Tier I SR-Bank Midt-Norge Nord-Norge Møre Vest Øst Sandnes Toten Helgeland Sør Buskerud-Vest Østf-Akershus Nøtterøy Ringerike ROE Utbytte P/E Direkteavkastning* 2014E 2015E 2015E 2016E Ticker Kurs (eks hybrid) Bok 2015 2014 2015 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG SPOG SADG TOTG HELG SOR SBVG SOAG NTSG RING 50.0 55.0 38.4 216 50 56 102 77 54.7 200 55 118 102 158 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % 13.5 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 12.9 % 14.2 % 15.7 % 13.1 % 17.8 % 65.5 65.7 47.0 256.6 58.2 53.6 184.2 112.4 91.4 225.4 76.8 196.2 170.3 188.2 0.82 0.90 0.87 0.88 0.91 1.04 0.58 0.72 0.63 0.93 0.74 0.64 0.64 0.87 0.76 0.84 0.82 0.84 0.86 1.03 0.55 0.68 0.60 0.89 0.71 0.60 0.60 0.84 13.8 % 14.2 % 12.3 % 12.4 % 13.8 % 16.1 % 7.6 % 13.4 % 9.9 % 12.4 % 14.1 % 12.2 % 14.2 % 10.7 % 10.1 % 11.3 % 10.4 % 9.4 % 10.5 % 8.8 % 6.0 % 8.2 % 8.2 % 9.1 % 7.7 % 8.4 % 9.2 % 8.0 % 9.6 % 10.8 % 10.1 % 8.8 % 9.5 % 8.3 % 5.6 % 8.0 % 7.4 % 7.7 % 6.8 % 8.0 % 8.1 % 7.9 % 2.00 2.20 1.90 13.00 4.00 4.50 3.00 3.00 2.00 11.00 2.60 4.00 4.75 9.50 2.00 2.50 2.25 12.00 3.25 3.25 4.00 2.75 2.10 11.00 2.75 4.75 4.00 8.50 4.0 % 4.0 % 4.9 % 6.0 % 8.0 % 8.1 % 3.0 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 5.5 % 4.7 % 3.4 % 4.7 % 6.0 % 4.2 % 4.7 % 6.2 % 5.9 % 7.0 % 6.4 % 4.1 % 3.7 % 4.0 % 5.8 % 5.3 % 4.2 % 4.1 % 5.7 % 7.9 7.7 8.2 9.1 8.1 10.9 9.4 8.5 7.6 9.8 9.8 7.4 6.8 10.4 108.7 12.6 % 101.9 1.15 1.07 14.0 % 11.2 % 10.9 % 4.00 4.50 3.7 % 4.3 % 0.80 0.87 0.75 0.76 0.82 0.72 12.6 % 13.3 % 12.3 % 9.0 % 10.4 % 8.2 % 8.3 % 9.8 % 7.6 % 4.9 % 5.4 % 4.8 % 5.1 % 5.6 % 4.8 % Gjennomsnitt* Regionbanker Lokalbanker 13.0 % 11.9 % 13.2 % 2016E 7.9 7.6 7.9 9.2 8.6 11.1 9.6 8.2 8.0 10.7 10.8 7.3 7.1 10.2 6.3 7.1 4.7 23.7 6.2 5.1 10.8 9.0 7.2 20.4 5.6 16.0 15.0 15.2 6.4 7.3 4.8 23.6 5.8 5.0 10.6 9.3 6.9 18.7 5.1 16.1 14.4 15.5 9.6 9.1 11.4 11.9 8.7 8.2 9.4 8.9 8.2 9.6 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Gjennomsnitt eks. Regionbanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Resten defineres som lokale 27 EPS 2015E 26.01.2015
Anbefalinger og kursmål Navn Bank Ticker SR-Bank SMN SNN Møre Vest SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG 50 55 38 216 50 60 66 45 245 60 20% 20% 17% 13% 19% Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp 0.76 0.84 0.82 0.84 0.86 7.9 7.6 7.9 9.2 8.6 4.0 % 4.0 % 4.9 % 6.0 % 8.0 % 9.4 9.1 9.3 10.4 10.3 0.92 1.00 0.96 0.95 1.03 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % Buskerud-Vestfold Sandnes Toten Helgeland Østfold-Akershus Ringerike Nøtterøy Øst SBVG SADG TOTG HELG SOAG RING NTSG SPOG 55 102 77 56 118 158 102 56 56 110 78 57 135 165 108 55 2% 8% 2% 2% 15% 4% 6% -1% Kjøp Nøytral Nøytral Nøytral Kjøp Kjøp Nøytral Kjøp 0.71 0.55 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.84 0.60 1.03 10.8 9.6 8.2 8.0 7.3 10.2 7.1 11.1 4.7 % 3.0 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 3.4 % 6.0 % 4.7 % 8.1 % 11.0 10.4 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.6 7.5 11.0 0.73 0.60 0.69 0.62 0.69 0.88 0.63 1.03 14.2 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 15.7 % 17.8 % 13.1 % 13.5 % 0.82 0.72 8.2 9.0 5.4 % 4.7 % 9.7 9.5 0.97 0.73 11.9 % 13.3 % Regionbanker Lokalbanker Dagens Kursmål PotensialeAnbefaling kurs 109 130 20% Kjøp 18% 3% Prising på dagens kurs* P/B 14 P/E 14E Yield 14E 1.07 9.1 3.7 % Prising på kursmål ** P/E 14E P/B 14E 10.9 1.28 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Verdsettelse basert på dagens kurs og våre estimater ** Verdsettelse basert på kursmål og våre estimater *** CET I = Ren kjernekapitaldekning (Tier I eks fondsobligasjoner) 28 26.01.2015 CET I*** % 12.6 %
Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret vi ser på utfallsrommet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% MORG NONG 0.25% MING SRBANK 0.00% -0.25% 29 SVEG Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets
Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 12% høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Sensitivitet ROE vs tap op utlån - Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. ROE basert på 2015 estimater 15% 1988-93 Regionale banker taper 200bps pa 10% ROE 2015E taper 300bps pa 5% 0% NONG MING -5% -10% 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 30 2009 taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. 0.4% MORG SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap på utlån
Tap: Sensitivitetstabell på EPS og ROE i 2015 gitt ulike tapsnivå tap under tidligere kriser skravert i grått Norwegian banks - loss sensitivities Comment Loan loss 0.0% 0.1% Avg 1995-2013 Regional banks 2009 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% Regional banks 2002 2009 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% Banking crisis avg 88-93 2.1% SRBANK 7.6 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.1-0.4-0.9-1.4-1.9-2.3 EPS 2015E MING SVEG 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.0 7.0 6.2 6.5 5.7 6.1 5.1 5.7 4.6 5.3 4.0 4.9 3.5 4.4 2.9 4.0 2.4 3.6 1.8 3.2 1.3 2.8 0.7 2.3 0.2 1.9-0.4 1.5-0.9 1.1-1.5 0.6-2.0 0.2-2.6-0.2-3.1-0.6-3.7 NONG 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1-0.2-0.5 MORG 26.8 25.0 22.4 20.6 18.9 17.2 15.4 13.7 11.9 10.2 8.4 6.7 4.9 3.2 1.4-0.3-2.0-3.8-5.5-7.3-9.0 13.0 12.4 11.5 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 Loan loss 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% SRBANK 12.3% 11.5% 10.4% 9.7% 8.8% 8.1% 7.3% 6.5% 5.7% 5.0% 4.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% -0.7% -1.5% -2.3% -3.2% -4.0% MING 12.6% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 9.6% 9.0% 8.4% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7% 5.1% 4.4% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% -0.3% -1.0% ROE 2015E SVEG 12.7% 11.8% 10.5% 9.6% 8.6% 7.7% 6.8% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% -0.7% -1.7% -2.6% -3.6% -4.6% -5.7% -6.7% NONG 11.7% 11.1% 10.2% 9.6% 8.9% 8.3% 7.7% 7.1% 6.5% 5.8% 5.2% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% -0.5% -1.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 31 MORG 10.6% 10.0% 9.0% 8.3% 7.6% 6.9% 6.2% 5.5% 4.8% 4.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% -0.1% -0.9% -1.6% -2.3% -3.1% -3.8% 13.2% 12.6% 11.6% 11.0% 10.3% 9.7% 9.1% 8.5% 7.9% 7.2% 6.6% 6.0% 5.4% 4.7% 4.1% 3.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Økt handel i sparebanker de to siste årene 2014 slo 2013 på målstreken, høyest omsetning i SRBANK Omsetning sparebanker januar - desember 2014 Sparebanker - Omsetning i NOK mill* Bevis og aksjer *Per år. Egenkapitalbevis og aksjer (SRBANK) 10 000 9 328 9 486 13 14 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 702 4 223 3 938 4 000 3 876 3 555 2 788 3 000 2 300 2 000 1 000 0 Kilde: Oslo Børs 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SR-BANK SMN SNN Helgeland Møre Vest Sandnes Øst Ringerike Toten Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Melhus Skue Sparebank Nøtterøy Aurskog Klepp Sør Hol Indre sogn Sum SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % 3 581 2 809 1 469 339 343 286 160 102 71 67 61 50 39 24 15 34 11 10 8 8 38% 30% 15% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG 2 803 3 658 1 357 259 327 303 89 173 95 45 37 33 13 18 34 27 14 32 3 5 9 486 100% Sum 9 325 Kilde: Oslo Børs 32 Omsetning hele 2013 Ticker NOK mill NOK mill
Motsyklisk buffer på 1.0% gir krav for CET 1 på 13.5 14% i juli 2016 høy kredittvekst kan imidlertid føre til opprevidering av motsyklisk, men neppe mer enn 50bps Minstekrav og bufferkrav 16% 14% *Basel II, overgangsregler. SIFI banker Dagens nivå regionale sparebanker Margin 0.5-1.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 33 Kombinerte bufferkrav inkl motsyklisk estimat 1% 8.5% Vi tror bankene vil holde en betryggende margin mot minimums-kravene for å redusere sannsynligheten for kupongstopp på fondsobligasjoner. Betryggende margin 50-100bps Kombinerte bufferkrav: 7.5% +1.0% = 8.5% Krav ren kjernekapital juli 2016 13.5-14.0 % SIFI banker Minstekrav EK 4.5% 01/01/1900
Kapitalstruktur norske og svenske banker Basel 2 overgangsregler Sammensetning av bankenes kapitaldekning* *Pr 3Q14 inkl 50% av overskudd YTD. Basert på Overgangsregler - Basel I gulv (80%) 12.6 % Nordea Norge 0.3 % 12.2 % 1.5 % BN Bank Nordea 1.1 % 15.2 % Hedmark 1.5 % 13.6 % 13.2 % 1.1 % Sogn og Fjordane 13.2 % 1.3 % 12.9 % Møre 3.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Nord-Norge Sør 2.3 % 1.3 % 12.4 % 1.4 % Vest 11.4 % 1.4 % SR-BANK 11.3 % 1.7 % Midt-Norge 11.2 % CET 1 0.7 % 2.3 % 1.2 % Tier 1 2.0 % 2.3 % 1.8 % Ringerike 0.00.6 %% 16.9 % Østfold-Akershus 0.0 % 15.7 % Buskerud-Vestfold 1.6 % 0.0 % 14.2 % Øst 1.3 % 0.5 % 13.5 % Helgeland 13.2 % Nøtterøy 13.1 % Bank 1 OA 13.0 % Toten 2.0 % 1.2 % 2% 4% 6% 1.4 % 0.00.8 % % 4.1 % 12.3 % 0% Lokale sparebanker 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.0 % 12.6 % Sandnes Regionale sparebanker Tier 2 2.7 % 17.8 % Telemark 34 2.0 % 2.8 % 8% 10% 12% 14% 0.2 % 2.1 % 16% 18% 20%
Kapitalisering: Styrket og likere etter 2008 Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd. Regionbanker SRBANK, MING, NONG 14% 1Q09: 80% 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 12% Lokale banker 1Q08: 90% Region banker 10% 8% Emisjoner 2009/2010: SRBANK MING SVEG Emisjon SPOG 2011: 6% Emisjoner 2012: SRBANK MING Emisjoner 2013: MORG NONG 2013 2014 NONG 4% 35 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes
Overføringer til Boligkreditt flater ut på 50% av boliglån? Tilsynet følger opp grad av overføringer på selskapsbasis gjennom Pillar 2 Andel boliglån overført til Boligkredittforetak* 100% *Pr. 3Q14 For er det andel boliglån finansiert med OMF 93% Overført pr siste kvartal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% har overført 86% av boliglån til Boligkreditt og utstedt OMF tilsvarende 65%. Overført 30.09.2011 Overført % av totale utlån 74% 68% 64% 52% 52% 53% 51% 49% 45% 45% 41% 41% 41% 40% 39% 35% 30% 37% 37% 36% 30% 28% 20% 10% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets Research 36
Uro i Hellas, men ikke smitte til Italia og Spania enda 37
Disclaimer Standards and supervisory authorities This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations ( Recommendation(s) ) prepared and issued by SpareBank 1 Markets AS ( SpareBank 1 Markets ) cf. the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (No: Verdipapirhandelloven) section 3-10 with further regulations. SpareBank 1 Markets complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association (www.vpff.no) and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts (www.finansanalytiker.no). The lead analyst/author (see front page) is employed by SpareBank 1 Markets, which is legally responsible for this report and is under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). Sources and method for assessment Important sources of information: the issuer, including its quarterly and annual reports, Oslo Stock Exchange and Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå). Sources are cited when referred to in the Recommendation. We use only sources we find reliable and accurate, unless otherwise stated. For shares and share related instruments Recommendations are based on estimates by using various valuation methods. Recommendation structure Our Recommendations are based on a six-month horizon, and on absolute performance. We apply a three-stage recommendation structure where Buy indicates an expected annualized return of greater than +15%; Neutral, from 0% to +10%; Sell, less than 0%. Current Recommendations of the Research Department Refers to Recommendations published prior to this Recommendation and which are required disclosed in accordance with Securities Trading Regulations (No: Verdipapirforskriften) section 3-11 (4). Current Recommendations of the Research Department Buy Neutral Sell Percent 54.6875% 23.4375% 20.3125% Analyst independence The views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect(s) the personal views of the analyst(s) principally responsible for this Recommendation about the subject securities or issuers, and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The Analysts employed by SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary and are members of the bonus pool. However no part of the analysts salaries or bonus relates to the performance of their Recommendations, directly to investment banking services or other services provided by SpareBank 1 Markets or related companies to issuers. 38
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The information in this Recommendation is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but SpareBank 1 Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements as described above within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. 41