Ukerapport norske banker - Kommentarer, kursutvikling og verdsettelse 23.02.2015 Nils Christian Øyen Finansanalytiker Tlf +47 99 500 240 nils.oyen@sb1markets.no SpareBank 1 Markets AS gjør spesielt oppmerksom på at MING utstedes av SpareBank 1 SMN. Det er vedtatt at SpareBank 1 SMN om kort tid vil bli SpareBank 1 Markets AS' morselskap, med en eierandel på 73.3%. Dette innebærer at SpareBank 1 Markets AS ikke kan anses å være nøytral i forhold til SpareBank 1 SMN, og således at denne anbefalingen ikke representerer en nøytral og uavhengig analyse/vurdering. Denne investeringsanbefalingen er å anse som markedsføringsmateriale. Det gjøres oppmerksom på at anbefalingen ikke er utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser.
Kommentarer: Vi ser på utbyttestatistikk i norske banker Konklusjoner Utsikter til spesielt lave renter på ubestemt tid med påfølgende negative realrenter etter skatt fortsetter å understøtte utbytteaksjer. Etter relativt nøytrale 4Q rapporter er P/E for svensk bank opp fra 12.4 til 13.6X hittil i år, hovedsaklig drevet av et fallende rentenivå 6% direkteavkastning er såklart fristende med 10 år svensk stat på 0.5%... Direkteavkastningen i norske regionbanker er lav i en historisk sammenheng på 4.8%, men høy relativt til rentenivået. Utbyttegraden skal opp fra dagens 25% til 50% (høyere for DNB) og investor vil nok også akseptere en lavere yield gitt lave renter, noe som i sum skal understøtte kursene fremover. Konkursfrekvensen for norske bedrifter var svakt opp i desember, men ikke markert og tidsserien er volatil. Den svenske Finansinspektionen offentliggjorde detaljerte kapitalkrav per bank i forrige uke, vi forventer Pillar 2 krav for norske regionbanker på ca 2% (uavhengig av offentliggjøring såklart) og da er CET 1 kravet 14% om man er SIFI eller ei, dog sannsynlig med høyere tidsmessig fleksibilitet. Kredittspreadene for DNB og svenske banker lavere i februar målt ved CDS er. DNB utsteder NOK 2.1mrd i fondsobligasjoner på NIBOR +325bps som økter Tier 1 med 0.2% og gir en Tier 1 transje på 0.5%. En transje på 1.5% tilsvarer ytterligere utstedelser av NOK 9-10mrd i fondsobligasjoner (økt fundingkostnad med ca NOK 300m). Regionale banker fortsatt som moderat priset på P/B 0.88 og P/E 8.6 på 2015E. Lokale banker handles på P/B 0.77 og P/E 9.5X våre 2015E. Kommentarer 1. Ukegraf: Vi ser på utbyttestatistikk i norske banker. 2. Aktuelt makro: Konkursstatistikken svakt opp i desember. 3. Kursutvikling i 2015: Regionale sparebanker +4%, lokale +8% mot Oslo Børs 7% og DNB +13%. 4. Kredittspreader bank*: Kystbanker fondsobligasjon +327bps, ansvarlig +164bps, senior +55bps og OMF +19bps. 5. Prisingssyklus: Basert på 2015 boken er regionbankene priset til P/B 0.88 og lokalbankene til P/B 0.77. 2 *Kredittspreader fra Nordic Bond Pricing (indikative omsetninger forrige uke. Alle priser nivå 2 banker
Hvor skal man gjøre av penga? et fallende nominelt rentenivå gir negativ realrente etter skatt 3
Direkteavkastningen var høyere før, men ikke relativt til rentenivået investor vil akseptere en lavere yield om man forventer at rentene vil forbli lave lenge Regionbanker - Direkteavkastning og rentenivå* *SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. NIBOR 3m 12 Direkteavkastning 10 9.8 NIBOR 3m 8.8 Direkteavkastning % 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.0 8 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.1 6.0 6 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.0 4.2 4 - Stigende yield - Lavere renter 2 0 4 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16E
Yield i svenske bank er hyggelige 5-6%, men utbyttegraden også høye 70% i Norge er den 25% og vil øke til over 50% i løpet av de neste 2-3 årene => yield opp Direkteavkastning og utbyttegrad* *Utbytte / Overskudd. Regionbank = Snitt SRBANK, MING, NON, MORG & SVEG 7.0% Regionbank 17E 6.0% DNB 16E Svensk bank 16E Direkteavkastning Regionbank 16E 5.0% Regionbank 14E Svensk bank 15E Svensk bank 14E Regionbank 15E 4.0% 3.0% DNB 14EDNB 15E 2.0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 1.0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Utbyttegrad 5
Kapitalisering muliggjør høyest yield i DNB, NONG og SVEG de neste årene normalisering av utbytte for SRBANK og MING sannsynlig i 2017 Direkteavkastning 1995-2016E - Sparebanker og DNB* *Direkteavkastning = Utbytte / kurs 31.12 14 12 Direkteavkastning % 10 8 NONG 6 DNB SVEG MORG MING 4 SRBANK 2 0 6 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16E
Look to Sweden: Lavere renteforventninger understøtter utbytteaksjer 7 10 år svensk stat P/E svensk bank multippel-ekspansjon for svenske banker fra P/E 12X til 13.6X så langt i 2015
DNB Tilbake til toppen av det historiske handelsintervallet P/E 8.5 10X dog kraftig reprising av svensk bank i samme periode så rabatten fortsatt høy P/E* - DNB and Swedish banks** *Consensus EPS next 12 months forward. **Swedish banks = SHB, NDA, SEB & SWED. 14 Swedish banks 13 Svensk bank etablerer nye historisk høye nivåer (P/E 13.6X) 12 11 10 DNB 9 8 DNB har handlet mellom P/E 8.6X og 10X siste halvannet året. 7 6 5 0-10 -20-30 -40 Dec 10 Rabatten er høyere enn normalt, nå ca 33% DNB discount to Swedish banks Aug 11 Dec Aug 12 Dec Aug 13 Dec Aug 14 Dec Aug 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 8
Sverige: Finansinspektionen offentliggjør kapitalkrav (CET 1) for svenske banker inkludert Pillar 2 krav og 25% gulv for risikovekter på boliglån 9
Norge: Svak oppgang i antall bedrifter som gikk konkurs i desember men voltatil tidsserie og fortsatt tidlig i konjunkturskiftet 10
Rom for å kutte boligrenten 50-60bps i 2015 uten marginfall ettersom NIBOR faller fra 1.70% høsten 2014 til 1.0% sommeren 2015 (FRA renter) Rente og margin nye boliglån* og NIBOR *Snittrente på nye boliglån over NOK 1m og innenfor 60% av taktst. 20 største banker i Norge 4.10-30bps fra mai 2016? 3.70 3.30 2.90 2.50 Rente nye boliglån 2.10 1.70 NIBOR 1.30 0.90 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 Jan 11 Brutto margin = Lånerente - NIBOR Jul 11 Oct Jan Jul 12 Oct Jan Jul 13 Oct Jan Jul 14 Oct Jan Jul 15 Oct Source: SpareBank 1 Markets, EcoWin
Renteforventningene opp 20bps siste månedene, men fortsatt lave på 1.0-1.1% boligrentene skal videre ned, flere kutt venter uten lavere margin 12
Kursoppgang for både norske og internasjonale banker i uken som gikk regionale banker og europeisk bank +2.5% Kursendring forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 w8 2015 DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] Svensk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Regional sparebank [c.o.p 1 obs] Europeisk bank [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 13
Regionbankene opp 2-3%. DNB mindre, men har steget mer tidligere Kursendring norske banker forrige uke* *Inkl evt utbytte, tegningsretter etc 4.0 3.5 3.0 % 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 w8 2015 DNB [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SMN ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 NORD-NORGE ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] SPAREBANKEN VEST ORD [c.o.p 1 obs] Source: SB1M 14
De store forretningsbankene i tet så langt, regionbankene lagger feltet Totalavkastning* hittil i 2015 *Justert for eventuelle utbytter, splitter og tegningsretter 16% 14% Kvartalsrapporter 4Q14 Bank Ticker 13% 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 2% 0% DNB Svenske banker Lokale sparebanker Europeisk bank OSEBX Regionale sparebanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG. Lokale sparebanker: RING, SBVG, SOAG, TOTG, HELG, SPOG, SADG, NTSG. Våre delindekser for de regionale og lokale bankene er likevektet. 15 Regionale sparebanker BN Bank Nordea Møre SEB Swedbank Gjensidige Ringerike Handelsbanken DNB SMN SNN SR-Bank Vest Hedmark Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Helgeland Nøtterøy-Tønsberg Sandnes Øst Storebrand Toten Sør 23.02.2015 BNB NDA MORG SEB SWED GJF RING SHB DNB MING NONG SRBANK SVEG SBHE SOAG SBVG HELG NTSG SADG SPOG STB TOTG SOR Dato 28-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 29-Jan 03-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 06-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb
Nordea årets vinner så langt - på høyere utbytte såklart Totalavkastning finansinstitusjoner i 2015* *Justert for eventuelle utbytte, splitter, emisjoner og tegningsretter Nordea - NDA 23% Buskerud-Vestfold - SBVG 20% DNB - DNB 13% Østfold-Akershus - SOAG 13% Handelsbanken - SHB 11% Øst - SPOG 10% Ringerike - RING 10% Gjensidige - GJF 9% Swedbank - SWED 9% Toten - TOTG 8% Nøtterøy - NTSG 8% Møre - MORG 8% Vest - SVEG 7% Oslo Børs - OSEBX 7% Helgeland - HELG 5% SR-BANK - SRBANK 4% SEB - SEB 4% EK-bevis index - OSEEX 3% SMN - MING 0% Sør - SOR 0% SNN - NONG -1% Sandnes - SADG Storebrand - STB -15% 16-4% -10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 23.02.2015 25%
DNB outperformer svensk bank på stigende oljepris (fra 48 til 60 USD) DNB relative to Swedish banks* and oil price** 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16-18 Jan 17 124 114 DNB relative to Swedish banks 104 94 84 USD/Barrel USD/Barrel *31.12.2011 = 0. ** Brent, USD 74 64 54 Oil price 44 Jul 12 Oct Jan Jul 13 Oct Jan Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Securities, EcoWin
DNB sterkere mot regionbankene 18
Ny reprising av svensk bank, delvis drevet av økte utbytter i Nordea DNB handler fortsatt lavt, skal på sikt handle høyere Price/Tangible Book* - Nordic banks *Ex goodwill 2.00 1.75 Swedish banks 1.50 1.25 DNB 1.00 12 Dec, 2013 CCB at 1.0% 0.75 Jan Jul 12 Oct Jan Jul 13 Oct Jan Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 19
Svensk bank priset høyt på sterk utbyttekapasitet og mindre oljeeksponering sparebankene fortsatt under boken, sammen med europeiske banker Pris/Bok* - Nordiske og europeiske banker *eks immaterielle eiendeler. Regionale sparebanker SRBANK, MING, NONG, SVEG, MORG 2.25 Svensk bank P/B 2.00 2.00 Svensk bank 1.75 1.50 DNB 1.25 1.00 Regionale sparebanker 0.75 Europeisk bank 0.50 0.25 0.00 Jan May Sep 09 Jan May Sep 10 Jan May Sep 11 Jan May Sep 12 Jan May Sep 13 Jan May Sep 14 Jan May Sep 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 20 Regionale sparebanker priset som europeisk bank
Alle opp men styrken i DNB øker rabattene i sparebankene Pris/Bok - Sparebanker og DNB * Inkludert utbytte ved årsslutt. Konsern. 1.4 1.3 DNB 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 MING NONG 0.8 SRBANK 0.7 0.6 0.5 % premie/rabatt 10 Premie/rabatt vs DNB målt ved P/B -10 MING -30 NONG SRBANK -50 Jul Oct 10 Jan Jul 11 Oct Jan Jul 12 Oct Jan Jul 13 Oct Jan Jul 14 Oct Jan 15 Jul Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 21
Rabatten i de lokale sparebankene er kraftig redusert siste året halvert fra -30% til -15% Pris/Bok* - Regionale og lokale sparebanker * Kurs / Bokført egenkapital pr bevis. 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 Regionale 1.00 0.75 0.50 Lokale sparebanker 0.25 10-5 -20-35 Rabatt 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 22
CDS: Kredittspreadene lavere i februar for nordiske banker CDS Nordic banks - Senior bond, 5yrs Basis points 135 Last month 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 DANSKE 55 SWED NDA DNB SEB 45 SHB 35 Jan Mar May Jul 2013 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2014 Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2015 Jul Source: Reuters EcoWin 23 CDS = Pris på konkursbeskyttelse for senior lån i basispunkter. Merk at det kan være store avvik mellom CDS markedet og cash-markedet
Noe spreadutgang for fondsobligasjoner og ansvarlige lån i 2015 Swap-spread kapitalstruktur*, bps over NIBOR *5 års løpetid. OMF og Senior Nordea Norge. Ansvarlig lån og fondsobligasjon regionbank (ny type) 600 600 500 500 400 400 Fondsobligasjon ny type 300 300 200 Ansvarlig lån ny type 100 200 100 Senior OMF 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 Source: SpareBank 1 Markets Credit Research 24
Betydelig inngang siste året for fondsobligasjoner i 2014, selv etter spreadutgang DNB +325bps Fondsobligasjoner i Norge - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type 800 700 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse 600 Dato Gammel type fondsobligasjoner teller 100% i 2013, 80% i 2014 og deretter 10%-poeng årlig utfasing... Sannsynlig at utstedelser i 2009/10 kjøpes tilbake 500 400 300 100 21-Aug-14 Strømmen Spb 50m 350 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 50m 370 03-Sep-14 Grong Spb 35m 335 26-Sep-14 Spb Øst 150m 280 30-Sep-14 Spb 1 Nøtterøy-Tønsberg 50m 300 14-Oct-14 Aurksog SB 120m 300 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 130m 290 23-Oct-14 SB1 BV 100m 290 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 305 16-Dec-14 Rørosbanken 50m 305 19-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog Spb 50m 330 15-Jan-15 Vegårshei Spb 15m 400 04-Feb-15 27-Feb-15 Melhus Spb DNB Bank ASA 60m 2150m 325 325 Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets jan/ 04 Gammel type 25 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 2015 200 0 Bank mai/ 05 okt/ 06 Gammel type med reg. call feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Ny konvertibel med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang 23.02.2015
Ansvarlige lån (LT II) spreadet ut siste månedene Odal SB +200bps 700 Ansvarlige lån (LT II) - spread i bps ved utstedelse og type Protector Forsikring 500 400 SRBANK 300 200 mai/ 05 Gammel type 26 Volum, NOK Spread (bps) 03-Sep-14 Pareto Bank ASA 150m 195 15-Sep-14 Melhus Spb 02-Oct-14 Gjensidige Forsikring 02-Oct-14 Surnadal Spb 03-Oct-14 Indre Sogn Spb 20-Oct-14 Totens Spb 05-Nov-14 Eiendomskreditt 125m 185 07-Nov-14 Bamble SB 30m 180 11-Nov-14 SB 1 Nordvest 150m 175 11-Nov-14 Jernbanepersonalets SB 50m 180 08-Dec-14 SB Sogn og Fjordane m 155 10-Dec-14 Bank 1 OA 200m 165 16-Dec-14 Høland og Setskog SB 200m 195 16-Dec-14 SB 1 Lom og Skjåk 25m 205 80m 160 1.2mrd 150 50m 165 50m 170 130m 145 2015 100 0 Bank.. Ki l de: SpareBank 1 Ma rkets 600 Spread i basispunkter ved utstedelse Dato okt/ 06 feb/ 08 jul/ 09 Gammel type med reg. call nov/ 10 apr/ 12 Ny type med reg. call aug/ 13 des/ 14 21-Jan-15 Eika Boligkreditt 50m 185 30-Jan-15 Spb Sør 200m 165 05-Feb-15 Odal Spb 200m 200 mai/ 16 Ny type med reg. call og endringsadgang
Verdsettelse enkeltbanker - fortsatt oppside fra moderate nivåer sparebankene i intervall fra P/B 0.55 til 1.0. Pris/Bok* vs egenkapitalavkastning 2015E - Norske banker *P/B basert på dagens kurser og estimert bokført egenkapital pr 31.12.2015. 2.00 Pris/Bok (2015 bok) 16% ROE 2015E 14% 11% 1.50 11.2 % 1.00 12% 10.8 % 10.0 %10.1 % 9.7 % 9.0 % 2.18 8.5 % 2.06 8.7 % 8.0 % 7.9 % 7.8 % 8.7 % 0.00 10% 8.6 % 8% 6.6 % 1.69 0.50 16% 14% 13% 2.22 18% 5.6 % 1.22 4% 1.08 0.93 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 6% 0.74 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.58 2% 0% Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 27 23.02.2015
P/E: DNB og Sparebankene er billige på våre estimater for 2014 svensk bank handler 11-14X våre 2014E P/E basert på 2014 og 2015 estimater - Nordiske banker 14 P/E 15E 12 P/E 14E 10 8 6 15.5 13.6 13.6 4 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.3 7.1 2 0 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets 28 23.02.2015
P/E blir mer interessant om vi ser den opp mot potensielle tap på utlån bankene handler 7-9X gitt normaliserte tap på 0.25%. P/E 2015E vs tap på utlån- Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. EPS basert på 2015 estimater 25 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 20 MORG 2008/09 Regionale bankser taper ca 30bps SVEG SRBANK NONG P/E 2015E MING 15 DNB 10 2009 DNB taper 70bps 5 0 Normaliserte tap 0.0% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 29 0.25% Peak tap 0.5% Tap på utlån 0.7% 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.9% 1.1%
Verdsettelse og estimater Pris/Bok Core Tier I SR-Bank Midt-Norge Nord-Norge Møre Vest Øst Sandnes Toten Helgeland Sør Buskerud-Vest Østf-Akershus Nøtterøy Ringerike ROE Utbytte P/E Direkteavkastning* 2014E 2015E 2015E 2016E Ticker Kurs (eks hybrid) Bok 2015 2014 2015 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG SPOG SADG TOTG HELG SOR SBVG SOAG NTSG RING 54.8 58.8 39.5 234 54 56 100 84 56.5 195 61 128 106 170 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % 13.5 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 12.9 % 14.2 % 15.7 % 13.1 % 17.8 % 64.6 65.7 46.8 259.8 58.7 51.8 171.6 112.9 89.5 226.1 74.2 195.5 167.4 183.2 0.91 0.96 0.90 0.94 0.97 1.07 0.60 0.77 0.66 0.90 0.84 0.70 0.67 0.96 0.85 0.89 0.84 0.90 0.92 1.08 0.58 0.74 0.63 0.86 0.82 0.65 0.63 0.93 14.4 % 14.9 % 12.3 % 12.9 % 13.9 % 15.9 % 6.6 % 14.5 % 10.5 % 12.7 % 12.1 % 12.5 % 13.6 % 11.3 % 10.5 % 11.7 % 10.2 % 9.6 % 11.1 % 8.7 % 5.8 % 9.2 % 8.0 % 9.1 % 8.3 % 9.1 % 9.2 % 8.6 % 10.0 % 10.8 % 10.1 % 9.0 % 9.7 % 8.5 % 5.6 % 8.7 % 6.6 % 7.8 % 7.9 % 8.7 % 8.6 % 8.0 % 2.00 2.25 1.90 13.50 4.00 5.00 3.00 5.00 2.50 11.00 3.85 4.40 5.00 10.00 2.00 2.25 2.10 11.00 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.50 2.25 11.00 2.75 4.75 4.00 8.50 3.7 % 3.8 % 4.8 % 5.8 % 7.4 % 8.9 % 3.0 % 6.0 % 4.4 % 5.6 % 6.3 % 3.4 % 4.7 % 5.9 % 3.8 % 4.0 % 5.6 % 5.0 % 6.5 % 5.9 % 3.1 % 4.5 % 4.2 % 6.0 % 4.8 % 3.8 % 4.0 % 5.3 % 8.5 7.9 8.5 9.7 8.3 11.6 10.3 8.2 8.2 9.5 9.9 7.4 7.0 10.8 DNB 125.4 12.6 % 102.6 1.33 1.22 13.7 % 11.6 % 11.2 % 3.80 4.00 3.0 % 3.3 % 0.85 0.94 0.80 0.81 0.88 0.77 12.7 % 13.7 % 12.2 % 9.2 % 10.6 % 8.4 % 8.6 % 9.9 % 7.8 % 5.1 % 5.1 % 5.4 % 4.7 % 5.0 % 4.6 % Gjennomsnitt* Regionbanker Lokalbanker 13.0 % 11.9 % 13.2 % 2016E 8.3 8.0 8.3 9.7 9.0 11.5 10.2 8.2 9.5 10.4 10.2 7.3 7.1 11.1 6.4 7.4 4.6 24.1 6.5 4.8 9.7 10.2 6.9 20.4 6.1 17.3 15.0 15.8 6.6 7.3 4.8 24.1 6.0 4.9 9.8 10.2 5.9 18.8 6.0 17.6 14.9 15.3 10.6 10.2 11.8 12.3 9.0 8.6 9.5 9.2 8.7 10.2 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Gjennomsnitt eks DNB. Regionbanker: SRBANK, MING, NONG, MORG, SVEG. Resten defineres som lokale 30 EPS 2015E 23.02.2015
Anbefalinger og kursmål Navn DNB Bank Ticker DNB SR-Bank SMN SNN Møre Vest SRBANK MING NONG MORG SVEG 55 59 40 234 54 60 66 45 245 60 10% 12% 14% 5% 11% Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp Kjøp 0.85 0.89 0.84 0.90 0.92 8.3 8.0 8.3 9.7 9.0 3.7 % 3.8 % 4.8 % 5.8 % 7.4 % 9.1 9.0 9.5 10.2 10.0 0.93 1.00 0.96 0.94 1.02 11.3 % 11.2 % 13.2 % 12.4 % 11.4 % Buskerud-Vestfold Sandnes Toten Helgeland Østfold-Akershus Ringerike Nøtterøy Øst SBVG SADG TOTG HELG SOAG RING NTSG SPOG 61 100 84 58 128 170 106 56 56 110 78 61 140 180 108 55-8% 10% -7% 6% 9% 6% 2% -2% Kjøp Nøytral Nøytral Nøytral Kjøp Kjøp Nøytral Kjøp 0.82 0.58 0.74 0.63 0.65 0.93 0.63 1.08 10.2 10.2 8.2 9.5 7.3 11.1 7.1 11.5 6.3 % 3.0 % 6.0 % 4.4 % 3.4 % 5.9 % 4.7 % 8.9 % 9.4 11.2 7.7 10.3 7.9 11.8 7.2 11.3 0.75 0.64 0.69 0.68 0.72 0.98 0.65 1.06 14.2 % 12.3 % 12.6 % 13.2 % 15.7 % 17.8 % 13.1 % 13.5 % 0.88 0.77 8.7 9.4 5.1 % 5.3 % 9.6 9.6 0.97 0.77 11.9 % 13.3 % Regionbanker Lokalbanker Dagens Kursmål PotensialeAnbefaling kurs 125 130 4% Kjøp 10% 4% Prising på dagens kurs* P/B 14 P/E 14E Yield 14E 1.22 10.2 3.0 % Prising på kursmål ** P/E 14E P/B 14E 10.5 1.27 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets * Verdsettelse basert på dagens kurs og våre estimater ** Verdsettelse basert på kursmål og våre estimater *** CET I = Ren kjernekapitaldekning (Tier I eks fondsobligasjoner) 31 23.02.2015 CET I*** % 12.6 %
Tapene vil stige fremover, men hvor mye? punktestimater gir meget sjelden svaret vi ser på utfallsrommet Tap på utlån - Sparebanker og DNB *Netto tap i % av brutto utlån inkl Boligkreditt. 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% MORG NONG 0.25% MING SRBANK DNB 0.00% -0.25% 32 SVEG Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markets
Med normaliserte tap har bankene ROE på 9 12% høyeste observerte tap siste 15 år (70bps) gir fortsatt ROE over 6% Sensitivitet ROE vs tap op utlån - Norske banker* *Tap som % av utlån inkl Boligkreditt. ROE basert på 2015 estimater 15% 1988-93 Regionale banker taper 200bps pa 10% ROE 2015E DNB taper 300bps pa 5% DNB 0% NONG MING -5% -10% 1995-14 Snitt tap alle banker ca 25bps. 0.0% 0.2% Source: SpareBank 1 Markets 33 2009 DNB taper 70bps 2008/09 Regionale banker taper ca 30bps. 0.4% MORG SRBANK 2002 Regionale banker taper 70bps 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% SVEG 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Tap på utlån
Økt handel i sparebanker de to siste årene 2014 slo 2013 på målstreken, høyest omsetning i SRBANK Omsetning sparebanker januar - desember 2014 Sparebanker - Omsetning i NOK mill* Bevis og aksjer *Per år. Egenkapitalbevis og aksjer (SRBANK) 10 000 9 328 9 486 13 14 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 702 4 223 3 938 4 000 3 876 3 555 2 788 3 000 2 300 2 000 1 000 0 Kilde: Oslo Børs 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 SR-BANK SMN SNN Helgeland Møre Vest Sandnes Øst Ringerike Toten Østfold-Akershus Buskerud-Vestfold Melhus Skue Sparebank Nøtterøy Aurskog Klepp Sør Hol Indre sogn Sum SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG % 3 581 2 809 1 469 339 343 286 160 102 71 67 61 50 39 24 15 34 11 10 8 8 38% 30% 15% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SRBANK MING NONG HELG MORG SVEG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG SBVG MELG SKUE NTSG AURG KLEG SOR HOLG ISSG 2 803 3 658 1 357 259 327 303 89 173 95 45 37 33 13 18 34 27 14 32 3 5 9 486 100% Sum 9 325 Kilde: Oslo Børs 34 Omsetning hele 2013 Ticker NOK mill NOK mill
Motsyklisk buffer på 1.0% gir krav for CET 1 på 13.5 14% i juli 2016 høy kredittvekst kan imidlertid føre til opprevidering av motsyklisk, men neppe mer enn 50bps Minstekrav og bufferkrav 16% 14% *Basel II, overgangsregler. SIFI banker Dagens nivå regionale sparebanker Margin 0.5-1.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 35 Kombinerte bufferkrav inkl motsyklisk estimat 1% 8.5% Vi tror bankene vil holde en betryggende margin mot minimums-kravene for å redusere sannsynligheten for kupongstopp på fondsobligasjoner. Betryggende margin 50-100bps Kombinerte bufferkrav: 7.5% +1.0% = 8.5% Krav ren kjernekapital juli 2016 13.5-14.0 % SIFI banker Minstekrav EK 4.5% 01/01/1900
Kapitalstruktur norske og svenske banker Basel 2 overgangsregler Sammensetning av bankenes kapitaldekning* *Pr 4Q14. Basert på Overgangsregler - Basel I gulv (80%) DNB 12.7 % Nordea Norge 12.7 % 0.4 % 1.5 % BN Bank 14.9 % Hedmark 14.8 % Sogn og Fjordane 0.0 % Møre SR-BANK Midt-Norge 2.0 % 2.4 % 11.5 % 0.8 % 11.2 % Tier 1 1.4 % 2.2 % 1.8 % Ringerike CET 1 2.1 % 1.4 % 12.0 % 1.8 % 0.7 % 1.1 % 12.2 % 3.2 % 2.2 % 1.3 % 12.6 % Vest 0.00.6 %% 16.9 % Østfold-Akershus 0.0 % 15.6 % Buskerud-Vestfold 0.8 0.0 % % 14.7 % Nøtterøy 13.8 % Øst 13.7 % Toten 13.7 % Helgeland 0.8 %0.3 % 0.9 % 13.0 % Sandnes 2% 4% 6% 2.0 % 2.4 % 0.00.8 % % 12.0 % 0% 2.3 % 3.7 % 1.4 % Lokale sparebanker 1.1 % 2.2 % 13.4 % Bank 1 OA Regionale sparebanker Tier 2 2.7 % 17.3 % Telemark 36 0.4 % 13.1 % Nord-Norge DNB Nordea 1.2 % 1.5 % 13.4 % Sør 2.2 % 1.2 % 8% 10% 12% 1.6 % 14% 16% 18% 20%
Kapitalisering: Styrket og likere etter 2008 Utvikling i ren kjernekapitaldekning* - Norske banker *CET I, eks fondsobligasjoner. Inkludert 50% av overskudd. Regionbanker SRBANK, MING, NONG 14% 1Q09: 80% 1Q07: RWA gulv 95% av Basel I 12% Lokale banker DNB 1Q08: 90% Region banker 10% 8% Emisjoner 2009/2010: DNB SRBANK MING SVEG Emisjon SPOG 2011: 6% Emisjoner 2012: SRBANK MING Emisjoner 2013: MORG NONG 2013 2014 NONG 4% 37 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Kilde: SpareBank 1 Markes
Uro i Hellas, men ikke smitte til Italia og Spania enda 38
Disclaimer Standards and supervisory authorities This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations ( Recommendation(s) ) prepared and issued by SpareBank 1 Markets AS ( SpareBank 1 Markets ) cf. the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (No: Verdipapirhandelloven) section 3-10 with further regulations. SpareBank 1 Markets complies with the standards for recommendations issued by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association (www.vpff.no) and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts (www.finansanalytiker.no). The lead analyst/author (see front page) is employed by SpareBank 1 Markets, which is legally responsible for this report and is under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet). Sources and method for assessment Important sources of information: the issuer, including its quarterly and annual reports, Oslo Stock Exchange and Statistics Norway (Statistisk Sentralbyrå). Sources are cited when referred to in the Recommendation. We use only sources we find reliable and accurate, unless otherwise stated. For shares and share related instruments Recommendations are based on estimates by using various valuation methods. Recommendation structure Our Recommendations are based on a six-month horizon, and on absolute performance. We apply a three-stage recommendation structure where Buy indicates an expected annualized return of greater than +15%; Neutral, from 0% to +10%; Sell, less than 0%. Current Recommendations of the Research Department Refers to Recommendations published prior to this Recommendation and which are required disclosed in accordance with Securities Trading Regulations (No: Verdipapirforskriften) section 3-11 (4). Current Recommendations of the Research Department Buy Neutral Sell Percent 54.6875% 23.4375% 20.3125% Analyst independence The views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect(s) the personal views of the analyst(s) principally responsible for this Recommendation about the subject securities or issuers, and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The Analysts employed by SpareBank 1 Markets receive salary and are members of the bonus pool. However no part of the analysts salaries or bonus relates to the performance of their Recommendations, directly to investment banking services or other services provided by SpareBank 1 Markets or related companies to issuers. 39
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Disclaimer Risks Generally, investments in financial instruments involve risks. For specific risks related to our various Recommendations, please see the latest relevant Recommendation. The target prices on companies in the SpareBank 1 Markets Research universe reflect the subjective view of the analyst about the absolute price that financial instruments should trade at, within our six-month recommendation horizon. The target price is based on an absolute valuation approach, which is detailed in our Recommendations. The target price can differ from the absolute valuation, in accordance with the analyst's subjective view on the trading or cyclical patterns for a particular financial instrument, or a possible discount/premium to reflect factors such as market capitalization, ownership structure and/or changes in the same, and company-specific issues. This Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation has been prepared by SpareBank 1 Markets from information obtained from public sources not all of which are controlled by SpareBank 1 Markets. Such information is believed to be reliable and although it has not been independently verified, SpareBank 1 Markets has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information is true and not misleading. Notwithstanding such reasonable efforts, SpareBank 1 Markets makes no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. SpareBank 1 Markets assumes no obligation to update the information contained in this Recommendation or summary of such Recommendation to the extent that it is subsequently determined to be false or inaccurate. This Recommendation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the issuer and/or the industry in which it operates. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words believes, expects, predicts, intends, projects, plans, estimates, aims, foresees, anticipates, targets, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the issuer or cited from third party sources are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. No Solicitation This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This Recommendation or summary of such recommendation is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any person who may receive this report or summary. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report or summary and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Performance in the past is not a guide to future performance. SpareBank 1 Markets takes no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication or its contents. Further distribution and jurisdiction Only clients of Sparebank 1 Markets are entitled to receive this Recommendation. This Recommendation may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. This Recommendation shall be governed by and construed under the Norwegian law. 41
Disclaimer Notice to U.S. Investors If this Recommendation is being furnished directly to U.S. recipients by a non-u.s. SpareBank 1 Markets entity in reliance on section (a)(2) of Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (each a direct U.S. recipient ), each such direct U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is major U.S. institutional investor (as such term is defined in section (b)(4) of Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any direct U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets Inc. 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In such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets accepts responsibility for the content of this Recommendation; however, although it has accepted responsibility for the content of this Recommendation in such cases, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets did not contribute to the preparation of this Recommendation, and the specific authors of the Recommendation are not employed by, and are not associated persons of, SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The SpareBank 1 Markets entity that prepared the Recommendation, and the authors of this Recommendation, may not be subject to all of the registration, qualification, disclosure, independence and other U.S. regulatory requirements that apply to SpareBank 1 Capital Markets and its employees and associated persons. Any SpareBank 1 Capital Markets U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or to engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. Any transaction in the securities discussed in this Recommendation by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through SpareBank 1 Capital Markets. The securities referred to in this recommendation may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this Recommendation may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where SpareBank 1 Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. The information in this Recommendation is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but SpareBank 1 Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements as described above within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. 42