Utsikter: Norsk økonomi og boligmarkedet NBBL, 25. november 215 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
Bakteppe: Oljemedvind har blitt oljemotvind Vi venter bare forsiktig opphenting i oljeprisen 15 Oil price Brent Blend, USD/barrel 12 9 6 3 Jan-95 Jan- Jan-5 Jan-1 Jan-15 Jan-2 Actual Norges Bank (Sep-15) DNB Markets Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Det betyr investeringskutt på norsk sokkel... Pga lavere lønnsomhet og svekket kontantstrøm. Drøyt -3% in 215-17 Norway: Petroleum investments 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 25 199 1995 2 25 21 215 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bn 212-NOK Share of Mainland GDP (rha) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets 3
og aktivitetsfall i oljetilknyttede næringer Oljeleverandører og ringvirkninger til næringsrettet tjenesteyting 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 til +5. Prod. ha -3-6 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Oljelev. B/A Varehandel B2B Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4
Arbeidsledigheten stiger SSBs arbeidskraftsundersøkelse: 4,6%, høyeste nivå siden juli 25 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 Arbeidsledige 1. Sesongjustert 3 3 Sep-9 Sep-95 Sep- Sep-5 Sep-1 Sep-15 Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets Reg.+tiltak Reg. AKU 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5
men økningen er ujevnt fordelt geografisk Forvent bredere oppgang (geografisk/yrkesmessig) når ringvirkninger spres 5 4 3 2 1-1 Norway: Registered unemployment by region Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average -2 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 South East Inland West Middle North Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Ikke rart - oljejobbene er ujevnt fordelt 214: 33 (13% av alle) jobber. 21% av disse eksportrelaterte Source: IRIS-rapport, «Industribyggerne 215»
Støtdemper 1: Oljeprisfallet har svekket kronen Gjør norske bedrifter mer konkurransedyktige 13. Norge: Relative timelønnskostnader i industrien, målt i felles valuta Indeks. 23=1 12. 11. 1. Isolert effekt av 1 prosent svakere krone 9. 23 28 213 Kilde: Teknisk beregningsutvalg/dnb Markets
Støtdemper 2: Lavere rentekostnader Nær null => mer aggressiv sentralbank. Støtter husholdningenes kjøpekraft 1.75 1.5 1.25 1..75.5.25. Norge: Foliorente Prosent -.25 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 PPR 2/15 PPR 3/15 x finstab DNB Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets Vi venter kutt i desember. Markedet venter kutt i mars. Norges Banks rentebane indikerer kutt i midten av neste år
Støtdemper 3: Muskler i finanspolitikken Stimulans øker neste år. Skattelettelser, bygg og vedlikehold gir jobber 3 Strukturelt, oljekorrigert underskudd. Mrd NOK, 216-priser 25 2 15 1 5 22 26 21 214 Faktisk 4%-regel Kilde: Finansdepartement et (NB214)/DNB Markets
Joker: Hvordan reagerer forbrukerne? I verste fall vil forsiktighetsmotivert sparing øke, og forsterke «oljebremsen» 12 Detaljhandel Sesongjustert volum. 3m/3m årlig rate, % 6 Forbrukerforventninger for neste år Indeks 9 4 6 3-3 -6-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 2-2 -4-6 Q4 1992 Q3 1998 Q2 24 Q1 21 Q4 215 Landets økonomi Egen økonomi Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Vi venter ikke panikksparing Men stabil, moderat forbruksvekst, i tråd med kjøpekraftsutviklingen 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 Norway: Households. Per cent Percentage annual change -6 1996 21 26 211 216 Consumption Disp. income Savings rate (level) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
og heller ikke en krasjlanding i boligmarkedet Dagens prisnivå ikke en boble. Men nå snur driverne i negativ retning 3 Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år 2 1-1 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Faktisk/anslag Modell Kilde: Eiendom Norge,/Finn.no/Eiendoms verdi/dnb Markets
Merk: Forklaring ikke synonymt med usårbarhet Økonomiske krefter virker begge veier. Arbeidsledigheten skal videre opp. 1 Norge: Boligprismodell Virkning av 1 pp høyere rente Referansebane = 1 1 Norge: Boligprismodell Virkning av 1 pp høyere ledighet Referansebane = 1 95 95 9 9 85 85 8 212 213 214 215 216 8 212 213 214 215 216 Modell Med eksogen boligbeholdning Modell Med eksogen boligbeholdning Kilde: DNB Markets Kilde: DNB Markets
Gjelden er høy, men renteutgiftene er lave Uproblematisk for de fleste å håndtere gjelden nå 2 16 12 8 4 Norge: Husholdningene Prosent av disponibel inntekt 25 2 15 1 5 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Rentebelastning Gjeldsandel (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
En moderat tilbudsside tilsier at fallet blir moderat En helt annen byggerespons på innvandringen enn i Irland (& Spania) 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging Prosent av befolkning -1. 199 1995 2 25 21 Nettoinnvandring Øvrig Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging Prosent av befolkning -1. 199 1995 2 25 21 Nettoinnvandring Øvrig Fullførte boliger Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Nå avtar arbeidsinnvandringen Men flyktningkrisen i Europa har nådd Norge. Effekten er usikker 25 2 15 1 5 Norge: Asylsøknader 1 personer 27 29 211 213 215* (til okt) Kilde: UDI//DNB Markets 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Norge: Asylsøknader 1 personer 27 29 Afghanistan 211 213 Eritrea 215* (til okt) Irak Iran Somalia Syria Kilde: UDI/DNB Markets
Supersyklusen ved veis ende Både for norsk økonomi og for boligprisene 35 Norge: Reell bruktboligpris Utvalgte def latorer. 1985 = 1 3 25 2 15 1 5 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 KPI Årslønn Disponibel inntekt Source: Eiendom Norge/Eiendomsveri/finn.no/ SSB/DNB Markets
men ingen krise! Lavere vekst enn normalt, ikke fall i aktiviteten. Støtdempere virker 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Norway: Mainland GDP and unemployment Percent. 23 28 213 Mainland-GDP (change, y/y) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Unemployment
Oppsummering Norge og verdensøkonomien går motsatt vei: Lavkonjunktur i Norge, mens oppsvinget fortsetter ute. Oljeboom har blitt oljebrems: En lavere oljepris gir kraftig investeringsrevers på norsk sokkel. Gir ringvirkninger i fastlandsbedriftene, arbeidsmarkedet, lønnsoppgjørene og boligmarkedet. Landingen blir myk, støtdempere virker. Penge- og finanspolitikk, solide husholdninger, svak krone. Flyktningestrømmen gir ekstra usikkerhet om arbeidsmarked, boligmarked, finanspolitiske impulser
Memo Valuta- og renteanslag Policy rates 21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 USA: Fed Funds.25.5.5.75 Japan: Day-to-day.1.1.1.1 Euro: Repo.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 UK: Base rate.5.5.75 1.25 Sweden: Repo -.35 -.45 -.45 -.45 Norway: Folio.75.5.5.25 Switzerland: 3M Libor CHF -.75-1. -1. -1. 3-month money market rates Country 24-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 USA.4.55.75 1. Japan.7.15.15.15 Euro -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 U.K..57.65.9 1.35 Sweden -.39 -.35 -.35 -.25 Norway 1.19.85.8.5 Switzerland -.75-1. -1. -1. 1-year swap rates Country 24-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 USA 2.9 2.25 2.25 2.5 Japan.47.5.5.5 Euro area.85 1. 1. 1. U.K. 1.8 2. 2. 2.25 Sweden 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.25 Norway 1.85 1.75 1.5 1.5 Switzerland.5.25.25.25 Source: DNB Markets Exchange rates 21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 EURNOK 9.22 9.3 9.1 9. USDJPY 122.6 123 125 125 EURUSD 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.1 EURGBP.7.68.67.7 EURSEK 9.26 9.4 9.1 9. EURCHF 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.15 USDCNY 6.39 6.55 6.7 7. Exchange rates (calculated) 21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 SEKNOK 99.57 98.94 1. 1. USDNOK 8.66 8.77 8.43 8.18 GBPNOK 13.8 13.68 13.58 12.86 JPYNOK 7.7 7.13 6.74 6.55 DKKNOK 124 125 122 121 CHFNOK 851 861 827 783 KKI 115.5 116.5 114.5 112. Source: DNB Markets
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