212: Fortsatt stor usikkerhet Fiskebåtredernes Forbund, 1. februar 212 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
Etterdønningene av finanskrisen Svak vekst, høy ledighet 2 BNP, sesongjustert Prosentvis endring siden 28Q1 385 Industriland: Arbeidsmarked USA+EZ+Japan+UK 1 38 9-2 375 8-4 -6 37 7-8 365 6-1 Q1 28 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 US Jap. EZ UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets 36 5 Q4 21 Q4 26 Q4 211 Mill. sysselsatte Ledighetsrate (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets
Stater strammer til i utforbakke Mistillit til stater 8 7 6 1 år stat, prosent Hellas (36%), Irland (7%) og Portugal (16%) er stengt ute av markedene 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Italia Frankr. Tyskl. EZ-11 Kilde: Thomson Dat ast ream,/ DNB M arket s
Banker strammer inn på kredittpraksisen Bank og land hand i hand 7 6 5 5 år CDS, bps 1 8 Bankenes finansieringskostnader og boliglånsrente 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 EZ-11 EU-banker DNB Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 5 år seniorobligasjon 3m NIBOR Folio Boliglånsrente Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Norges Bank/DNB M arkets
Sentralbankene gjør hva de kan 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Sentralbankbalanser, t-5=1 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Fed BoE ESB Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB M arkets 6 5 4 3 2 1 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 18. jan. 212 Jan-5 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB M arkets
Den største frykten Italiensk mislighold kan velte valutasamarbeidet 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Offentlig bruttogjeld Mrd. euro 2 25 21 215 Hellas Irland Port. Spania Italia Kilde: IM F Fiscal M onit or Sep-211/ DNB M arket s
Vi venter roligere markeder i 2. halvår Renteoppgang i sikte 7. Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 18. jan. 212 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. Jan-5 Jan-8 Jan-11 Jan-14 USA ØMU Norge Kilde: Thomson Dat ast ream / DNB M arket s
Vi venter roligere markeder i 2. halvår Comeback for euroen 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 EURUSD 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.15 28-Jan-11 28-Jan-12 28-Jan-13 fwd CF Jan 12 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reut ers / Consensus Economics / DNB M arket s
Global vekst er "normal" En todelt verden 6 Globalt BNP, k/k i % Annualisert. Vekstbidrag i prosentpoeng 4 2-2 -4-6 Q1 26 Q1 28 Q1 21 Q1 212 OECD Ikke-OECD Kilde OECD EO9/DNB M arkets
Gode nyheter for AS Norge Utsikter til vesentlig høyere oljepriser 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Kinas oljeimport og oljepris 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-95 Jan- Jan-5 Jan-1 Jan-15 Import, 12m sum Oljepris BB (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datast ream/ DNB M arkets
Ingen krisestemning i Norge men todeling 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Produksjonsendring, å.rate Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 til +5 Sep-3 Sep-5 Sep-7 Sep-9 Sep-11 Oljeleverandører Bygg/anlegg Varehandel Eksportindustri Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB M arkets 27 26 25 24 23 Sysselsetting og arbeidsstyrke 1. Sesongjustert Nov-5 Nov-7 Nov-9 Nov-11 Sysselsatte Ledighet, %, ha Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB M arkets Arbeidsstyrke 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2.
Råvarer og innsatsvarer + stor offentlig sektor/bunnsolide statsfinanser Vi er spesielle! Vareeksport, 21 25 2 15 1 5 De tre største varegruppene Prosent av samlet eksportverdi for trad.varer Mat Kjem.råv Maskiner Metall Papir/papirv Andre Olje og gass Kilde: Statistisk Sentralbyrå/DNB M arkets 21 23 25 27 29 Fisk Aluminium Andre ind.mask./utstyr Kilde: Statistisk Sentralbyrå/ DNB M arkets
Marsjfart, men ingen overoppheting i norsk økonomi 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Norge: Hovedtall 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Fastlands-BNP KPI Ledighet Kilde: St at ist isk sent ralbyrå/ DNB M arket s Viktige vekstdrivere Forbruk Oljeinvesteringer Boliginvesteringer
Lav inflasjon + sterk krone + lave renter ute Fortsatt lave renter 6. Foliorenten Prosent 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 21 211 212 213 214 215 Faktisk PR 3/11 DNB Markets Kilde: Thomson Dat ast ream/ Norges Bank/ DNB M arket s
NOK Handelsintervall videreføres 8.3 8.2 8.1 8. 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 EURNOK 8.3 8.2 8.1 8. 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 28-Jan-11 28-Jan-12 28-Jan-13 Fw d CF Jan 12 PPP DNB Kilde: Thomson Reut ers / Consensus Economics / DNB M arket s
Italiensk mislighold, europeisk bankkrise, oppsplitting av eurosamarbeidet Et skikkelig stygt nedsidescenario 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 BNP Prosent år/år Verst i eurosonen, men smitter via finansmarkeder og handelskanalen til resten av verden 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 OECD Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB M arket s Global
Krisescenario Norge rammes mildere Pengepolitisk krutt Finanspolitisk krutt Tiltak for å trygge funksjonsmåten til markedene 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Norge: Krisescenario 199 1995 2 25 21 Fastlands-BNP Ledighet Kilde: St atist isk sent ralbyrå/dnb M arket s
DNB Markets krisescenario Betydning for euro 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 Euro Jan-2 Jan-7 Jan-12 EUR TWI EURUSD (ha)? 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8 Kilde: Thomson Datastream /DNB M arkets
DNB Markets krisescenario Kronen vil svekkes igjen Norske kroner 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 7. Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 4.5 EURNOK Kilde: Thomson Dat ast ream/ DNB M arkets USDNOK (ha)
Oppsummert Normalvekst i verden men sterk todeling: Fremvoksende økonomier (med Kina i spissen) har høy vekst, industrilandene har lav vekst. Ny resesjon i EU, nær resesjon i UK og svak oppgang i USA Stor usikkerhet rundt utfallet av statsgjeldskrisen. Venter at uroen avtar etter sommeren. Norsk økonomi klarer seg godt, mye takket være verdifulle impulser fra oljesektoren. Utviklingen ute vil legge bånd på rentehevingene fra Norges Bank, så lenge det ikke går mot overoppheting i norsk økonomi.
DNB Markets renteanslag Styringsrenter Jan-11 Land 1-Feb-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 USA: Fed Funds Target.25.25.25.25 Japan: Dag-til-dag.1.1.1.1 Euroland: Reporente 1..75.5.5 Storbritannia: Bank rate.5.5.5.5 Sverige: Reporente 1.75 1.5 1.25 1.25 Norge: Foliorente 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF.13.13.13.13 Tre måneders pengemarkedsrenter Jan-11 Land 1-Feb-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 USA.54.55.55.5 Japan.35.5.5.5 Euroland 1.13 1.5.9.9 Storbritannia 1.8 1. 1. 1. Sverige 2.68 2.15 1.95 1.75 Norge 2.68 2.4 2.3 2.3 Sveits.7.13.13.13 Ti års swaprenter Jan-11 Land 1-Feb-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 USA 1.92 2.25 2.5 3. Japan.98 1. 1. 1.25 Euroland 2.28 2.5 2.75 3.25 Storbritannia 2.28 2.5 2.75 3.25 Sverige 2.34 2.25 2.5 3. Norge 3.58 3.5 3.75 4.25 Sveits 1.1 1.25 1.5 1.75
DNB Markets valutaanslag Exchange rates Jan-11 31-Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 EURNOK 7.68 7.8 7.65 7.65 USDJPY 76.7 77 77 85 EURUSD 1.31 1.2 1.2 1.35 EURGBP.84.8.8.85 EURSEK 8.9 9.2 9. 9. EURCHF 1.21 1.23 1.23 1.3 USDCNY 6.33 6.33 6.33 6.18 Exchange rates (calculated) Jan-11 31-Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 SEKNOK 86.28 84.78 85. 85. USDNOK 5.85 6.5 6.38 5.67 GBPNOK 9.17 9.75 9.56 9. JPYNOK 7.63 8.44 8.28 6.67 DKKNOK 13 15 13 13 CHFNOK 637 634 622 588 TWI 94.4 96.8 95.3 92.7
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