Økonomiske utsikter Bruktbilkonferanse, Bjørvika,. oktober 1 Seniorøkonom Knut A. Magnussen, DNB Markets
EMEs opp % i år, industriland 1½% Globalt: Moderat vekst, løftet av Kina&India 1 8 - BNP Prosenvis volumendring fra året før - 198 1989 199 1999 9 1 19 Verden Industriland Fremvoksende Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets BNP 15 Prosentvis endring år/år 1 9 3-3 - -9-1 Q 8 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Kina India Russland Brasil Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets. BRICs utgjør 53% av EMEs, 3% av verden
Globalisering, tap av markedsmakt, teknologi Avtakende ledighet, men fortsatt lav inflasjon 1 Arbeidsledighet Prosent av arbeidsstyrken 3 Konsumpriser Prosentvis endring år/år 1 1 8 1 Aug- Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 USA ØMU Japan UK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -1 Aug-1 Aug-13 Aug-1 Aug-15 Aug-1 USA Eurosonen UK Sverige Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Million b/d Prisen opp til 5$/f i 17 og til 7$ i 18 Oljemarkedet tilbake i balanse 15 Global Oil Supply vs Demand (DNB assumptions on supply and demand for the forward looking) 15 Oljepris Brent Blend, USD/fat 1 1 95 9 9 85 3 Source: IEA, DNB Markets 8 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 Oil liquids supply Oil liquids demand Jan-95 Jan- Jan-5 Jan-1 Jan-15 Jan- Faktisk Jan-15 Aug-1 Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Sentralbankene fortsetter med QE (enn så lenge) Svært lave (korte og lange) renter.5 Styringsrenter Faktisk/prognose 17.8.1 Ti års swaprenter Faktisk/prognose 17.8.1. 5 1.5 1. 3.5. 1 -.5 Aug-9 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Aug-9 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19 USA Japan ØMU UK Sverige Norge Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets
Risikofaktorer 1. Kina: Høy gjeld i næringslivet. Går det mot resesjon i USA? 3. Økende ulikhet bremser veksten. Proteksjonisme (Donald Trump, Brexit) 5. Geopolitiske spenninger (Russland, Kina, Midtøsten, terrorisme, flyktningkrisen). Oljeprisen (alltid med på listen)
Norge: Oljeinvesteringsfall gir vekstbrems 35%/73 mrd. fall i oljeinvesteringene 1-17. 33k jobber direkte/indirekte 5 Norge: Oljeinvesteringer 175 15 15 1 75 5 5 199 1995 5 1 15 Mrd. 13-kroner Andel av Fastlands-BNP (ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 9 8 7 5 3 1 Norge: Hovedtall, % 5 3 1-1 - 199 1995 5 1 15 Fastlands-BNP, å/å KPI, å/å Ledighet Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Rammer industrien Verft og verkstedbedrifter treffes hardest 5 55 5 5 Konjunkturbarometer, industri Sesongjustert diffusjonsindeks. Glattet 35-3 Q 199 Q 1 Q Q 11 Q 1 Generelt Samleindikator (sj,ha) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 3 1-1 - 5 19 1 13 1 7 Norge: Industriproduksjon Etter næring. 5=1. Sesongjustert Jul-9 Jul-1 Jul- Jul-11 Jul-1 Verft Maskin Kjemisk Metall Møbel Treforedling Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Sparingen er høy, men reallønningene faller Hvor kraftig blir forbruket truffet? 1 1 8 - - Norge: Husholdninger Prosentvis endring fra året før - 199 1 11 1 Forbruk Disp.inntekt Sparerate (nivå) Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 3..8.... 7 5 3 1-1 Norge: Årslønn Årlig prosentvis endring - 5 1 15 Reallønn Konsumpriser Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Og forbruket holdt stand denne gang Forbrukertilliten på vei opp igjen 8 - - Privat forbruk og forv.indikator Forbrukertillit: St.avvik fra hist.gjennomsnitt (ha) - - Q3 199 Q3 1 Q3 Q3 11 Q3 1 Forbruk å/å Forv.indikator Sparelyst (gl.) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 3 1-1 - -3 5 15 1 5-5 -1 Norge: Forbrukertillit Indeks -15 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-1 Jan-1 Jan-1 Kilde: ForbrukerMeteret fra Opinion/DNB Markets
Svakt for vareforbruket bedre for tjenester 13 Varekonsum og bilsalg Sesongjustert Forbruk av reisetrafikktjenester Fire kvartalers sum. Prosentvis endring år/år 15 15 1 115 1 1 1 5 11-5 15 8 Aug- Aug-11 Aug-1 Varekonsum 1 biler (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets -1 Q1 199 Q1 Q1 1 Nordmenn utenlands Utlendinger i Norge Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Over 15 nye biler i fire år på rad Mot nytt rekordår for personbilmarkedet 18 1 1 1 1 8 Førstegangsregistrerte biler 1. Sesongjustert Aug- Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Sesongjustert Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets Trend 1 1 1 1 8 Førstegangsregistreringer 1 personbiler. Ujustert og 1m snitt Aug- Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Kilde: OFV/DNB Markets Brukte Nye 1
Det verste er bak oss i arbeidsmarkedet Tegn til at ledigheten flater ut, i hvert fall i følge NAV 8 7 5 Sysselsetting og arbeidsstyrke 1. Sesongjustert 5..5. 3.5 3..5 3. Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Sysselsatte A-styrke Ledighet, %, ha Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 5 3 Arbeidsledige 1. Sesongjustert Aug- Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Reg.+tiltak Reg. AKU (ha) Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 15 1 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 5
Inflasjonen vil komme ned igjen Bidrar til bedre reallønnsutvikling fremover 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 Kronekurs Faktisk/prognose 17.8.1 7. 9 Sep-5 Sep-1 Sep-15 Sep- EURNOK Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets KKI (ha) 1 115 11 15 1 95 Norge: KPI-JAE Prosentvis endring år/år 5 3 1-1 - -3 - -5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-19 I alt Import Innenlands Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets
Rentedrevet boligprisfest Vi tror den kommer til å forsette: 7,8% i 1 og 7,% i 17 35 3 5 15 1 Boligpriser og langsiktige renteforventninger 1 NOK per kvm og prosent 5 1998 1 7 1 13 1 Boligpris Rente 5år om 5år (h.a.) Kilde: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/Bloomberg/DNB Markets 8. 7.. 5.. 3.. 1.. 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1 Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år -15 Aug- Aug-8 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Aug-1 Oslo Trondheim Bergen Stavanger Kilde: Eiendom Norge/ FINN/Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets
Risiko: Høy gjeldsbelastning Husholdningene sårbare for renteøkning/inntektssvikt 5 15 1 5 Norge: Gjeld, rentebelastning og gjeldsbetjeningsgrad Prosent av disp. inntekt 1988 199 199 8 1 1 Gjeldsbelastning (v.a.) Gjeldsbetjeningsgrad (h.a.) Rentebelastning (h.a.) Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets 1 1 1 1 8
Rentebunnen er nådd Men høye NIBOR-renter kan gi en liten renteoppgang 1.75 1.5 1.5 Norges Banks Foliorente, pst. 1.5 1.3 Norge: Foliorenten og 3m NIBOR Prosent 1. 1..75.5.5. Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 Q1 17 Q1 18 PR /1 PR 1/15 PPR /15 PPR 3/15 PPR /15 PPR 3/1 Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets.8.5.3. Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Folio 3m NIBOR Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Regjeringen gir mye gass Men mindre impuls i 17-budsjettet Underliggende utgifter Inflasjonsjustert. Endring år/år i prosent. Strukturell, oljekorrigert balanse Prosent av trend-bnp, Fastlands-Norge, å/å i pp 5 1.5 3 1..5 1. -1 1985 1995 5 15 Faktisk Gjennomsnitt -15 Kilde: Finansdepartementet, RNB1/DNB Markets -.5-1. 5 8 11 1 Kilde: Finansdepartementet, RNB1/DNB Markets
Takk for oppmerksomheten!
Norge: Makroprognoser Makroøkonomiske nøkkeltall. Norge 1 15 1 17 18 19 Privat forbruk 1.7. 1.3 1.8.5.7 Offentlig forbruk.9 1.9 3..3.. Oljeinves teringer -.9-15. -15. -1. 5. 1. Fas tlands inves teringer 1.3. 3.3. 1..3 Private bedrifter -. -3..3-1. -. 1.7 Bolig -1.5 1. 7..8 1.. Offentlige 7.3 3. 3.7.1. 3.5 Trad. vareeks port.5.8 -. 3..8 3. Trad. vareim port 1. 1.9. 1.8 3..1 BNP. 1. 1. 1. 1.5 1.7 - Fas tlands-norge.3 1..8 1. 1.9.1 Sys s els etting 1....5.8.8 Arbeids ledighet (AKU) 3.5..8.9 5..9 Års lønn 3.1.8.5.8.8 3. Kons um pris er.. 3.7. 1.7 1.5 KPI-JAE..7 3.. 1. 1. Sparerate 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Boligpris.3 7. 7.8 7.. 3. 3m NIBOR 1.7 1.3 1. 1. 1. 1. Oljepris (USD/fat) 99 53 5 7 7 Oljepris (NOK/fat) 5 7 383 99 5 8 EURNOK 8. 8.9 9.3 8.7 8.5 8.3 USDNOK.3 8.1 8.3 7. 7.3.9 Kilde: Statis tis k s entralbyrå/dnb Markets augus t 1
Makroanslagene BNP. Prosentvis endring fra året før Endring fra Jan 1 Konsensus 15 1 17 18 19 15 1 17 18 19 1 17 Verden 3..9 3. 3. 3.. -.1 -.1.3. 3.* 3.* Industriland 1.8 1. 1.3 1. 1.5. -. -...5 1.** 1.** USA. 1.5 1.7 1.9.1 -.1-1.1 -.7.8 1. 1.5.3 Eurosonen 1.7 1.5 1. 1.3 1... -. -.1.1 1.5 1. Sverige.1 3.. 1.9 1.8.8.8..1. 3.5.3 Fastl.-Norge 1..8 1. 1.9.1 -.3 -.3 -.1. -.1.8 1. Storbritannia...8 1. 1.8 -. -.3-1. -.5.1 1.. Japan.5.5.7.. -. -. -. -.3 -.1.5.8 Frem voksende 3.9...8.7.1.1..3.1 5.1*** 5.5*** Kina.9.8..3 5.9.. 1.5 1..7..3 India 7. 7. 7.5 7.5 7.5.1 -.1... 7.5 7. Brasil -3.8-3.5.5 1.5..1.5 1... -3.3.8 Russland -3.7 -. 1. 1.5 1.5.8.9-1.5.. -.8 1. Kilde: Consensus Forecasts/DNB Markets *Vektet snitt av industriland* og BRIC **Vektet snitt av G3, UK, Norge og Sverige ***Vektet snitt av BRIC-landene
Renteprognoser Styringsrenter -Sep-1 Land 3-Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct- USA: Fed Funds Target.5.75.75.75 1.5 1.75.5 Japan: Dag-til-dag -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 Euroland: Reporente....... Storbritannia: Bank rate.5.1.1.1.1.1.1 Sverige: Reporente -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5.. Norge: Foliorente.5.5.5.5.5.5.5 Sveits: 3M Libor CHF -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 Tre måneders pengemarkedsrenter Land 3-Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct- USA.85 1.15 1.5.95 1. 1.9. Japan..1.1.1.1.1.1 Euroland -.3 -.3 -. -. -. -. -. Storbritannia.38.5.5.5.5.5.5 Sverige -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.1.5.5 Norge 1.1 1.1 1.5 1..95.95.95 Sveits -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 -.75 Ti års swaprenter Land 3-Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct- USA 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75.5.5 Japan.8...... Euroland.9.5.5.5.75 1. 1. Storbritannia.78.75.75.75 1. 1.5 1.5 Sverige..75.75 1.5 1.75.. Norge 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75.. Sveits -.8 -.5 -.5.... Kilde: DNB Markets
Valutaprognoser Valutakurser -Sep-1 Kurs 3-Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct- EURNOK 8.95 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8. USDJPY 11. 1. 98. 95. 1. 15. 11. EURUSD 1.1 1.1 1.13 1.15 1.18 1. 1.5 EURGBP.87.87.88.9.91.93.95 EURSEK 9. 9. 9. 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 EURCHF 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.15 1.19 1. USDCNY.7.75.8.9 7.11 7.3 7.5 Valutakurser (beregnet) Kurs Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct- SEKNOK 93. 9.7 97.8 98.9 9. 93.3 9.1 USDNOK 7.9 8.9 7.79 7.57 7..9.5 GBPNOK 1. 1.3 1. 9.7 9.3 8.9 8.3 JPYNOK 7.85 8.9 7.95 7.9 7..59 5.9 DKKNOK 1 119 118 117 11 111 11 CHFNOK 819.9 81.5 8. 77.8 73.8 98.5 7. TWI 115. 11. 11.5 113. 19.5 1. 13.5
Important/Disclaimer This note (the Note ) must be seen as marketing material and not as an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act of 7 paragraph 3-1 and the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation 7//9 no. 87. The Note has been prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA, a Norwegian bank organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Norway (the Bank ), for information purposes only. The Note shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. The Bank, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (individually, each a DNB Party ; collectively, DNB Parties ) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Note. DNB Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, nor for the results obtained from the use of the Note, nor for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Note is provided on an as is basis. DNB PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE NOTE S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE NOTE WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall DNB Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Note, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the Bank s judgment at the time the Note was prepared and DNB Parties assume no obligation to update the Note in any form or format. The Note should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. No DNB Party is acting as fiduciary or investment advisor in connection with the dissemination of the Note. While the Note is based on information obtained from public sources that the Bank believes to be reliable, no DNB Party has performed an audit of, nor accepts any duty of due diligence or independent verification of, any information it receives. Confidentiality rules and internal rules restrict the exchange of information between different parts of the Bank and this may prevent employees of DNB Markets who are preparing the Note from utilizing or being aware of information available in DNB Markets/the Bank which may be relevant to the recipients of the Note. The Note is not an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. Distribution of material like the Note is in certain jurisdictions restricted by law. Persons in possession of the Note should seek further guidance regarding such restrictions before distributing the Note. The Note is for clients only, and not for publication, and has been prepared for information purposes only by DNB Markets - a division of DNB Bank ASA registered in Norway with registration number NO 98 851 (the Register of Business Enterprises) under supervision of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet), The Monetary Authority of Singapore, and on a limited basis by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority of the UK, and the Financial Supervisory Authority of Sweden. Details about the extent of our regulation by local authorities outside Norway are available from us on request. Additional information for clients in Singapore The Note has been distributed by the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA. It is intended for general circulation and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in the Note, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any such product. You have received a copy of the Note because you have been classified either as an accredited investor, an expert investor or as an institutional investor, as these terms have been defined under Singapore s Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 11) ( FAA ) and/or the Financial Advisers Regulations ( FAR ). The Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is a financial adviser exempt from licensing under the FAA but is otherwise subject to the legal requirements of the FAA and of the FAR. By virtue of your status as an accredited investor or as an expert investor, the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA is, in respect of certain of its dealings with you or services rendered to you, exempt from having to comply with certain regulatory requirements of the FAA and FAR, including without limitation, sections 5, 7 and 3 of the FAA. Section 5 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to disclose material information concerning designated investment products which are recommended by the financial adviser to you as the client. Section 7 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to have a reasonable basis for making investment recommendations to you as the client. Section 3 of the FAA requires a financial adviser to include, within any circular or written communications in which he makes recommendations concerning securities, a statement of the nature of any interest which the financial adviser (and any person connected or associated with the financial adviser) might have in the securities. Please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at +5 1 753 in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the Note. The Note is intended for and is to be circulated only to persons who are classified as an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor. If you are not an accredited investor, an expert investor or an institutional investor, please contact the Singapore Branch of DNB Bank ASA at +5 1 753. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may have interests in any products referred to in the Note by acting in various roles including as distributor, holder of principal positions, adviser or lender. We, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities. In addition, we, the DNB group, our associates, officers and/or employees may buy or sell products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in the Note. Additional Information, including for Recipients in the In the United States: The Note does not constitute an offer to sell or buy a security and does not include information, opinions, or recommendations with respect to securities of an issuer or an analysis of a security or an issuer; rather, it is a market letter, as the term is defined in NASD Rule 11.